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FanofBill
05-09-2005, 12:43 PM
Will White Sox cool off?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/jacob_luft/05/09/may9.chatter/

Chicago has an ungodly 13-3 record in one-run games and is playing three games above its Pythagorean mark (based on run differential). The second-place Twins, meanwhile, are one game below where they should be, which if you take both factors together should mean we are in for a terrific race in the AL Central.

1951Campbell
05-09-2005, 12:51 PM
I like the comment posted below the article:


"I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street."

-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)

tacosalbarojas
05-09-2005, 12:57 PM
I like the comment posted below the article:


"I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street."

-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)So so true. Kenny comes off smelling like a rose. Josey out three months, Magglio out for three months, Carlos struggling early on in Milwaukee, Iguchi proving he's no Kaz Matsui, El Duque drinking from the fountain of youth, AJP fitting in, Pods running around like he's Rudy Law, and Dustin having my Giant fans friends on their knees begging to have him back what with Armando B. out for three months. Can it finally be our turn? Sure feels like it.

FarWestChicago
05-09-2005, 01:08 PM
I like the comment posted below the article:


"I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street."

-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)It doesn't matter how KW's or Beane's teams perform. Beane is a "genius" and KW a "moron" in they eyes of FOBB's, and the media is quite FOBB'ish. It's a done deal and I doubt anything will change it.

Baby Fisk
05-09-2005, 01:13 PM
It doesn't matter how KW's or Beane's teams perform. Beane is a "genius" and KW a "moron" in they eyes of FOBB's,

There's even a book that proves it, don't you know!

Sox of White
05-09-2005, 01:16 PM
Will White Sox cool off?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/jacob_luft/05/09/may9.chatter/

Chicago has an ungodly 13-3 record in one-run games and is playing three games above its Pythagorean mark (based on run differential). The second-place Twins, meanwhile, are one game below where they should be, which if you take both factors together should mean we are in for a terrific race in the AL Central.

Sorry, could someone explain Pythagorean marks?

mweflen
05-09-2005, 01:17 PM
KW has done a better job rebuilding this year than BB has. Salary parity is key. Now, our average salary is 2 mil or so, where last year IIRC it was around 500k.

"Trading" Carlos, Maggs and Valentin for AJ, Iguchi, Duque, Dye, Hermanson, Vizcaino and Pods has to rank as one of the best offseasons in recent memory. (Not to mention the midseason shedding of E-Lo, Schoen-whine, and picking up Contreras and Freddy.) And this is without the benefit of 24-7 hindsight.

You can find any number of laudatory comments regarding this offseason by the actaul baseball fans on WSI, as opposed to know nothing "analysts" who uniformly picked the Sox to finish 3rd or worse.

SoxFan48
05-09-2005, 01:17 PM
Some of the responses were "mad" about mentin of Pythagorean standings. Year in an year out, they standing have proved their mettle--not infallible (witness the Sox 2000 year division championship), but a good predicator.

The 21-10 Pythagorean record the sox currently have is still great! Even if we have been a bit lucky (and we have), our "true" record is still on pace to win 109 games. And that is sensational.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 01:19 PM
Can some propellor-head or FOBB explain the Pythagorean stat? Just what did Pythagoras know about baseball, anyway? :smile: Something to do with abstaining from bean-eating?

Flight #24
05-09-2005, 01:20 PM
Some of the responses were "mad" about mentin of Pythagorean standings. Year in an year out, they standing have proved their mettle--not infallible (witness the Sox 2000 year division championship), but a good predicator.

The 21-10 Pythagorean record the sox currently have is still great! Even if we have been a bit lucky (and we have), our "true" record is still on pace to win 109 games. And that is sensational.

What's hilarious to me is that the Twins have consistently outpeformed their Pythagorean totals, and people used that as an example of how they "overachieve". Now the Sox are doing that and it's "they'll come back to the pack".

Johnny Mostil
05-09-2005, 01:28 PM
From http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/faq.shtml

>>


What is pythagorean winning percentage?

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

(Runs Scored)^1.83--------------------------------------------------------- (Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.
<<

See also http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~bvollmay/baseball/pythagoras.html

elrod
05-09-2005, 01:30 PM
Pythag is useless. I've calculated teams' performances against their Pythag for the last 20 years and there are some teams that, year after year, underperform. And others that overperform. The Yankees always overperform their pythag. The Mets always underperform. The White Sox even out over time. The Cubs underperform. And the Twins have overperformed the last four years. Pythag-backers insist that the luck evens itself out over time. It doesn't. Teams beat their Pythag by having a strong bullpen and a deep bench that knocks in runs late in games. The reason the Twins are down this year is they keep struggling in late inning potential rallies, even though their bullpen is strong (and roided up). So they crush some teams, but can't seem to come from behind and win the close ones. The 1959 White Sox outperformed their Pythag by 8 games. They were 35-15 in one run games. The 1990 White Sox outperformed their Pythag by 7. Were they lucky? Or did sombody by the name of Thigpen play a big role in winning the close ones?

My favorite is the 1984 Mets. They were 12 over their Pythag record (they usually perform way under their Pythag). Their record in one run games was 29-20, and their record in blowouts was 15-22. Orosco and Sisk were lights out in the pen that year.

SoxFan48
05-09-2005, 01:33 PM
Can some propellor-head or FOBB explain the Pythagorean stat? Just what did Pythagoras know about baseball, anyway? :smile: Something to do with abstaining from bean-eating?

The names given to a known property of any baseball team, that being the ratio between their wins and losses will be a similar relationship between the square of their runs and the square of their runs allowed.

If Pythagareus was around today, he would be GM of the Oakland A's.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 01:35 PM
The names given to a known property of any baseball team, that being the ratio between their wins and losses will be a similar relationship between the square of their runs and the square of their runs allowed.

If Pythagareus was around today, he would GM of the Oakland A's.

Kind of spooky that Pythagoras abstained from eating Beans, while Billy "Beane" would be Pythagoras' spiritual successor as a baseball GM... :redneck

SoxFan48
05-09-2005, 01:38 PM
Our Sox currently rank 4th in the AL in Beane Count (Concocted by ESPN.com's Rob Neyer (http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/) and named for Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane, the Beane Count is derived by summing a team's ranks in home runs hit, walks drawn, home runs allowed, and walks allowed).

In short, we are playing baseball the Bill Beane way--getting more walks and HR's than our opponents. Bill Beane is very proud of us today.

mikehuff
05-09-2005, 01:40 PM
I like the comment posted below the article:


"I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street."

-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)

I think Ozzie might deserve as much credit as KW for this team's season and not because of Ozzie's on field managing either. This is the type of team I've been waiting for the Sox to change to for 4 years in a row. KW put the same losing team out there (by losing I mean 2nd place) for 3 years in a row with almost no changes at all, hoping that some miracle would all of a sudden make them win. I think it took Ozzie to finally persuade him to build a team based on the 2003 World Series Marlins. Last year Ozzie came in with the team already made up for him, but I was curious to see what he could do with a team that he wanted. Well, he's got it this year and so far so good.

Flight #24
05-09-2005, 01:43 PM
Our Sox currently rank 4th in the AL in Beane Count (Concocted by ESPN.com's Rob Neyer (http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/) and named for Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane, the Beane Count is derived by summing a team's ranks in home runs hit, walks drawn, home runs allowed, and walks allowed).

In short, we are playing baseball the Bill Beane way--getting more walks and HR's than our opponents. Bill Beane is very proud of us today.

Actually, I'd be insulted if I were KW. This team is winning the KW/Ozzie way - strong pitching, fundamentals, balanced O, intensity.

But in an ironic twist, the Sox rank 4 in "Beane count", while the A's rank.....8.

Look for Billy Beane to retool the As following the "Kennyball" model within 2 years.

Flight #24
05-09-2005, 01:45 PM
I think Ozzie might deserve as much credit as KW for this team's season and not because of Ozzie's on field managing either. This is the type of team I've been waiting for the Sox to change to for 4 years in a row. KW put the same losing team out there (by losing I mean 2nd place) for 3 years in a row with almost no changes at all, hoping that some miracle would all of a sudden make them win. I think it took Ozzie to finally persuade him to build a team based on the 2003 World Series Marlins. Last year Ozzie came in with the team already made up for him, but I was curious to see what he could do with a team that he wanted. Well, he's got it this year and so far so good.

Tough to say how much is KW's fault the past few years and how much Sleepy Manuel's. I can see how even if KW wanted a team like this, he might not have thought it best to make these types of moves because it wouldn't fit with the manager's style.

Think about how things would look with this team.....and JM managing.
(shudder)

NorthlakeTom
05-09-2005, 01:56 PM
I don't put any stock into esoteric statistical analysis. It's meaningless as far as I'm concerned. (A's squared + Beane squared = Crap squared)

Is there a stat showing how players perform under pressure? No. Using these ridiculous formulas to make a point reduces the game to a dice roll, which it is not.

It would be like claiming (hypothetically) that the '90s Bulls teams lucked out in their buzzer wins, while ignoring the fact MJ took all those buzzer shots.

Baseball is played by human beings, with 90% of the game within the control and ability of those players. It is not a crap shoot.

SouthSideSid
05-09-2005, 02:03 PM
I saw in the responses to the article that some idiot Twinkie fan said how "tired" he was of hearing about the White Sox and smallball and tried to make the case that the Twins are the real smallball team.

As a Sox fan I have been tired of the freaking Twins for three damn years now.
As far as the Sox only scoring runs via the dinger - like most Twins fans I know he must not actually watch any games. That 2-hit 2-1 win over KC the other day was a glorious display of the awesome power the Sox can pull out at any time.

SoxSpeed22
05-09-2005, 02:07 PM
It doesn't matter how KW's or Beane's teams perform. Beane is a "genius" and KW a "moron" in they eyes of FOBB's, and the media is quite FOBB'ish. It's a done deal and I doubt anything will change it.
:fobbgod: "I lead a team to the playoffs 4 straight years, scam plenty of GMs (mainly Steve Phillips) make sure the team doesn't make outs, draft a bunch of slow guys or pitching freaks and everyone loves me! Too bad I kept Zito and got Haren and another guy for Mulder."

NorthlakeTom
05-09-2005, 02:11 PM
I saw in the responses to the article that some idiot Twinkie fan said how "tired" he was of hearing about the White Sox and smallball and tried to make the case that the Twins are the real smallball team.

As a Sox fan I have been tired of the freaking Twins for three damn years now.
As far as the Sox only scoring runs via the dinger - like most Twins fans I know he must not actually watch any games. That 2-hit 2-1 win over KC the other day was a glorious display of the awesome power the Sox can pull out at any time.

I guess the spoiled Twinkie fans have to come up with some excuse. It's not like the press has been badmouthing the team. I read an article last week that used one stat - walks allowed - as an excuse for the Twins to go all the way.

I'm waiting for the fruitcakes to claim the Sox are eeevil. You know...this stat minus that stat times the number of first-born males equals 666. I'll be ready for that one by stating the Twins' #1 starter is SAnTANa.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 02:14 PM
Billy Beane looks a LOT like John Edwards (of Kerry/Edwards O4)

Flight #24
05-09-2005, 02:26 PM
"I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street."

-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)

Yeah, but BB traded Mark Mulder (4-1, 2.93ERA, .109WHIP) and Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.18ERA, 1.11WHIP) for:

Dan Haren (1-4, 5.5ERA, 1.5WHIP)
Kiko Calero (2-0, 8.68ERA, 1.82WHIP, 1S, 1H)
Juan Cruz (0-1, 9.31ERA, 2.38WHIP)
Charles Thomas (.094BA, .256OBP, .094SLG)
Daric Barton (.255/.373.347 in A)
Dan Meyer (1-3, 6.98ERA in AAA)

Oh yeah, and he freed up some $$$ which enabled him to get...

Jason Kendall(.225/.312/.269)

BRILLIANT!!!!

:roflmao:

TommyJohn
05-09-2005, 05:45 PM
Kind of spooky that Pythagoras abstained from eating Beans, while Billy "Beane" would be Pythagoras' spiritual successor as a baseball GM... :redneck

And Pythagoras had a secretary named Lincoln, and Beane had a secretary
named Kennedy.....