PDA

View Full Version : Scoring the run from 3rd with less than 2 out


mweflen
05-09-2005, 11:51 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2055896

I was shocked when I saw this (chart about halfway down the page). We're actually 3rd best in the majors (.640) at scoring the run from 3rd with less than 2 out.

I've watched 80% or more of the games so far this year, and It always seemed like they would blow those situations to me. I guess that goes to show you, no matter how annoyed with your team you get, it could always be worse. :smile:

Frater Perdurabo
05-09-2005, 11:55 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2055896

I was shocked when I saw this (chart about halfway down the page). We're actually 3rd best in the majors (.640) at scoring the run from 3rd with less than 2 out.

I've watched 80% or more of the games so far this year, and It always seemed like they would blow those situations to me. I guess that goes to show you, no matter how annoyed with your team you get, it could always be worse. :smile:

This doesn't surprise me. Uribe and Carl have been kings of the sac fly so far. The one who has been anti-clutch (Saturday vs. the Jays is the notable exception) has been GIDPaul Konerko.

FoulkeFan
05-09-2005, 11:55 AM
I was thinking the same thing when I saw that! One more reason for the hot start I guess.

skottyj242
05-09-2005, 11:57 AM
I was pretty amazed when I saw that chart this morning.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 11:57 AM
Whenever Paul comes up to the plate, my first thought is always "Well, how can we GIDP here..."

Even with no one on base. I'm like "Somehow, he'll figure out a way to record 2 outs in this AB..."

MIgrenade
05-09-2005, 11:58 AM
The top and bottom of the lineup have been doing well, it's the middle has been ruining rallys until the last series.

gosox83
05-09-2005, 12:15 PM
This is the reason I thought Ozzie should have had Everett Bunting the two runners over yesterday with nobody out in the top of the senventh (or eighth)

Pods led off with a 4 pitch walk, then uribe singled. Everett was up and grounded into a DP on a 2 - 0 pitch putting Pods at third and two out with Konerko up. If Everett bunts those guys over you are able to keep Konerko out of a DP situation and you have a man on 3rd with less than two outs. That could have been an enormous insurance run.

GO SOX!!!

mweflen
05-09-2005, 12:18 PM
I certainly think Carl should have bunted. If he had tried and failed the first two times, then he could go into hacking/protect mode. This is without the 20/20 hindsight of his GIDP. Late in games, if we need just 1 insurance run, any player ought to bunt to get men on 2nd and 3rd with one out.

jeremydavid
05-09-2005, 12:18 PM
further down the article....

When are people going to realize that Mark Buehrle (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6525) is one of the best pitchers in baseball?" asks David Wells. "He is my pick to win the Cy Young with 22 or 23 wins."

David Wells isn't picking himself???? uh and, Thanks for the help in the White Sox uni...

mweflen
05-09-2005, 12:20 PM
Eh, Wells is just trying to get an analyst spot when he inevitably breaks down and retires. He would love the catered food at every venue...

MisterB
05-09-2005, 12:28 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2055896

I was shocked when I saw this (chart about halfway down the page). We're actually 3rd best in the majors (.640) at scoring the run from 3rd with less than 2 out.

I've watched 80% or more of the games so far this year, and It always seemed like they would blow those situations to me. I guess that goes to show you, no matter how annoyed with your team you get, it could always be worse. :smile:

It also shows how willing Sox fans can be in believing the worst about their team, even when it isn't true. :(:

mweflen
05-09-2005, 12:38 PM
It also shows how willing Sox fans can be in believing the worst about their team, even when it isn't true. :(:

Okay, I resemble this remark. I don't "Believe the worst" about the team, as in I read a bunch of online sox-hating articles or someone told me the Sox suck at scoring from 3rd. It was MY IMPRESSION, based on watching the games BY MY DAMN SELF.

I'm saying that it's funny how you can perceive things one way, but in fact the stats belie it.

Frater Perdurabo
05-09-2005, 12:40 PM
Okay, I resemble this remark.

Unintentionally funny! :D:

NonetheLoaiza
05-09-2005, 12:49 PM
Okay, I resemble this remark. I don't "Believe the worst" about the team, as in I read a bunch of online sox-hating articles or someone told me the Sox suck at scoring from 3rd. It was MY IMPRESSION, based on watching the games BY MY DAMN SELF.

I'm saying that it's funny how you can perceive things one way, but in fact the stats belie it.

I don't think it's necessarily believing the worst, it's like an umpire. You only notice the umpire when he does something to blow a call. The other 95% of the time (unless you are Hunter Wendelstedt, in which case it is vice versa), you don't notice the good calls, getting in a good position, etc. As a huge fan of the Sox, the things they didn't do well are more likely to stick out in your mind, IMHO.

LauraJ14
05-09-2005, 12:49 PM
Whenever Paul comes up to the plate, my first thought is always "Well, how can we GIDP here..."

Even with no one on base. I'm like "Somehow, he'll figure out a way to record 2 outs in this AB..."

Its funny that fans think that Paul is always grounding into DP's, but he doesn't even lead the Sox in that category. He has 3 and Sean Casey leads the majors with 10.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 12:49 PM
Unintentionally funny! :D:

Nope, intentionally funny. :tongue: I know the difference between resent and resemble, just like I know the difference between compliment and complement, it's and its, etc. etc.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 12:50 PM
Its funny that fans think that Paul is always grounding into DP's, but he doesn't even lead the Sox in that category. He has 3 and Sean Casey leads the majors with 10.

It's the collective memory of seemingly thousands of GIDPs, see especially 2003... :D:

Frater Perdurabo
05-09-2005, 12:55 PM
Nope, intentionally funny. :tongue: I know the difference between resent and resemble, just like I know the difference between compliment and complement, it's and its, etc. etc.

I knew you probably knew better, but hoped you didn't for humor purposes.
:cool:

Frater Perdurabo
05-09-2005, 12:59 PM
Its funny that fans think that Paul is always grounding into DP's, but he doesn't even lead the Sox in that category. He has 3 and Sean Casey leads the majors with 10.

His GIDPs tend to occur at "clutch" moments. If it was an ordinary, run of the mill GIDP with Everett at first in which the Sox already had scored a crooked number of runs and had a nice lead, it wouldn't be a big deal. It's just that it seems to happen when there's one out with the bases jammed or a runner on third, and the Sox need a run to tie or take the lead.

Ol' No. 2
05-09-2005, 01:06 PM
It's the collective memory of seemingly thousands of GIDPs, see especially 2003... :D:Actually, among players with at least 2000 career AB, Konerko ranks 4th all-time in GIDP/AB:

Ernie Lombardi: 0.0446
Ron Coomer: 0.0437
Walt Dropo: 0.0403
Paul Konerko: 0.0401

His 2003 season ranks 9th all-time.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 01:12 PM
Actually, among players with at least 2000 career AB, Konerko ranks 4th all-time in GIDP/AB:

Ernie Lombardi: 0.0446
Ron Coomer: 0.0437
Walt Dropo: 0.0403
Paul Konerko: 0.0401

His 2003 season ranks 9th all-time.

Case closed.

Seems to me there was a situation recently where Konerko (mid-slump no less) was IBB'd in a 2-men-on situation in favor of Rowand. I couldn't believe it, given Konerko's GIDP history. And what do you know, Aaron came through. I ownder where A-Row ranks all-time. I would guess everage or better innot GIDP-ing.

MisterB
05-09-2005, 01:15 PM
Okay, I resemble this remark. I don't "Believe the worst" about the team, as in I read a bunch of online sox-hating articles or someone told me the Sox suck at scoring from 3rd. It was MY IMPRESSION, based on watching the games BY MY DAMN SELF.

I'm saying that it's funny how you can perceive things one way, but in fact the stats belie it.

Maybe 'believing the worst' is a bit strong. Perhaps 'focus on perceived negatives' is a little more accurate.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 01:18 PM
Maybe 'believing the worst' is a bit strong. Perhaps 'focus on perceived negatives' is a little more accurate.

Oh, I never focused on it. I was happy with the record regardless of a perceived negative. But you'd better believe I always groaned to myself when we got a man on 3rd with 1 out.

elrod
05-09-2005, 01:49 PM
I think people believe the Sox are bad in those situations because of a well-publicized related statistic. The White Sox' OPS with runners in scoring position is actually second-to-last in the American League, with BA fourth from the bottom. Yet, we get runners home with productive outs (sac flies, ground outs, etc.) better than anybody in baseball. Thus, we get the job any way we can.

LauraJ14
05-09-2005, 02:43 PM
His GIDPs tend to occur at "clutch" moments. If it was an ordinary, run of the mill GIDP with Everett at first in which the Sox already had scored a crooked number of runs and had a nice lead, it wouldn't be a big deal. It's just that it seems to happen when there's one out with the bases jammed or a runner on third, and the Sox need a run to tie or take the lead.

Well since he hit only into 3 this year and we have only lost 7 games, how many of them were in clutch moments? Again, the perception of past seasons seems to cloud what actually has happened this year.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 02:45 PM
Well since he hit only into 3 this year and we have only lost 7 games, how many of them were in clutch moments? Again, the perception of past seasons seems to cloud what actually has happened this year.

LauraJ,

Release your anger! Give in to your Hatred! Only then will your Journey to the South Side be complete!!

:redneck

tstrike2000
05-09-2005, 02:52 PM
Paul will always ground into a lot of DP's since he runs like he has a 1000 lbs. weight on his back. Also, I'm definitely not complaining about our getting runners in with less than two out, but it could be even better if Timo Perez could not strike out or pop up bunts when he's batting in those situations.

mweflen
05-09-2005, 02:54 PM
hearing about those Timo blown situations (i.e. 2 more victories we could have had) makes the South Side energy within me bubble up and want to explode!

LauraJ14
05-09-2005, 04:37 PM
LauraJ,

Release your anger! Give in to your Hatred! Only then will your Journey to the South Side be complete!!

:redneck

Well I have been having a crappy day at work so maybe that's where the hostility is coming from. I should remember that Sox fans rather beat a dead horse than actually look at the facts that Konerko has only grounded into 3 double plays this year! Very good for him, maybe because he has stuck out too many times.

voodoochile
05-09-2005, 04:57 PM
From the perception that the Sox are failures at scoring runs that they are supposed to score to the perception that PK is the ulitmate rally killer, this thread is a perfect example of how the human mind works.

A sac fly in the 3rd inning that extends the lead or reduces the deficit by one just isn't that memorable, but boy fail to do it in the 8th inning of a 1-run game and it sticks in our heads.

The same can be said for DP's - especially PK who obviously has a history of causing DP's on a regular basis. Of course some of that is compounded by his lack of speed and the fact that he regularly bats with men on base because of his slot in the lineup and the guys who hit in front of him.

In this case, perception is NOT reality, but that never stops us from thinking it is...:cool:

mweflen
05-09-2005, 05:08 PM
Well I have been having a crappy day at work so maybe that's where the hostility is coming from. I should remember that Sox fans rather beat a dead horse than actually look at the facts that Konerko has only grounded into 3 double plays this year! Very good for him, maybe because he has stuck out too many times.

I'm just teasing with a Star Wars joke. Sorry if I made your day worse :peace:

(the joke is that Sox fans are bitter and negative in general - i.e. like "Dark Side" jedi.)

LauraJ14
05-10-2005, 10:32 AM
I'm just teasing with a Star Wars joke. Sorry if I made your day worse :peace:

(the joke is that Sox fans are bitter and negative in general - i.e. like "Dark Side" jedi.)

No, Sox talk usually makes the day better. Especially when talking to whiny Cub fans at work.

mweflen
05-10-2005, 01:48 PM
No, Sox talk usually makes the day better. Especially when talking to whiny Cub fans at work.

Speaking of not scoring the run with less than 2 outs....

:everett:AAAAAAGHGHGHGHGH!!!!!$#&^%$#@^%#@$#@&!!!

ondafarm
05-10-2005, 01:52 PM
This is the reason I thought Ozzie should have had Everett Bunting the two runners over yesterday with nobody out in the top of the senventh (or eighth)

Pods led off with a 4 pitch walk, then uribe singled. Everett was up and grounded into a DP on a 2 - 0 pitch putting Pods at third and two out with Konerko up. If Everett bunts those guys over you are able to keep Konerko out of a DP situation and you have a man on 3rd with less than two outs. That could have been an enormous insurance run.

GO SOX!!!

Can Carl bunt though? Should you have your leading RBI guy bunting when there already is a man in scoring position?