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View Full Version : KW's Got A Big Big Problem


owensmouth
05-02-2005, 12:53 PM
A year ago, following his ill fated start in Toronto when he was lights out until he gave up a walk and then a home run, then another walk and a home run to completely blow a game, I said that Garland had a mental switch that he still had to throw. I also said that until he threw that switch, he would remain very ordinary.

Clearly, he has found and activated that switch.

Now KW has a huge problem on his hands, and very bluntly, his ultimate success as a White Sox general manager may hinge upon how he handles it.

What does he do about John Garland?

Garland joined the team in mid 2000, coming up from the minors. He had no previous major league experience. He was locked into the White Sox for six full years. That six years will end in mid year 2006.

He is currently on a one year contract. Next year is his last mandatory year with the Sox. After next year, Garland is a free agent.

Kenny Williams has to decide whether to offer JG a long term contract (in Sox speak, that's 4 years); pay him whatever the arbietrator says to pay him next year and watch him walk away after the 2006 season; or trade him after this year and get as much as he possibly can from some team that feels that they can sign him (either the Dodgers or the Angels).

With each consecutive victory, his value increases. How much would Steinbottom be willing to pay him? How much Boston bullion could he collect?

I have felt all along that JG had all the tools that he needed to consistently win twenty games a season, and now I think he will.

It's going to cost the Sox at least ten million per year to sign this kid, and that's if he signs within a month or two. If the Sox don't sign him soon, he's gone. Next year will be like last year with Magglio.

To keep Garland, the White Sox are going to have to increase their payroll. If they do sign him, we may have the the best starting staff in the majors for years to come. If not, it'll be bring up McCarthy and start all over again.

If Williams doesn't resign JG, his epitath may be that he let the best get away.

MRKARNO
05-02-2005, 12:57 PM
Better to have the problem of too much talent than too little.

A. Cavatica
05-02-2005, 12:57 PM
I don't think he'll be making $10M next season. Like Loaiza, he'll have to prove himself each month, and then again next season. He only makes $10M next year if he wins the Cy Young.

NSSoxFan
05-02-2005, 12:59 PM
Let's cross that bridge when we get to it. Jon is having a great year SO FAR, but not let's get carried away and think it is a lock that he will win 15-20 games this year.

Flight #24
05-02-2005, 01:02 PM
IMO they'll be able to get Jon with a Garcia/Buehrle like deal. Something along the lines of 7-8-9 for 3 years, or 8-9-10.

Remember - both of the aforementioned guys had fairly well-established track records. Jon's going off of a fairly mediocre record and 1 good year (assuming he keeps it up). Plus, he's Sox property for a year anyway, so that would be factored into the equation. Finally, if the team is winning, he gets to stick with a known situation and a team that's believed in him through his struggles. That should hopefully provide the final impetus for him to take a very good deal with them rather than jumping FA for the biggest $$$. Not to mention the example he's just seen firsthand of a player passing up a very good guaranteed deal for potential FA riches only to get hurt, something which is even more of a concern with pitchers.

Unregistered
05-02-2005, 01:04 PM
No way Steinbrenner would touch him unless he had 2 seasons worth of performances like he's had so far this season.

He's been burned enough by Wright and other unproven guys, and even guys like Vazquez seem to falter in the NY spotlight. Garland has been around long enough for the league to know how fragile he is.

JoseCanseco6969
05-02-2005, 01:12 PM
I thought the exact same thing as the original post while listening to Carm and Silvy this morning. I think we should lock him up for a few years after one or two bad games...maybe to drop his value a little and see if his agent bites. He obviously has the stuff to win...which is what we've said for years. So maybe if hes got his head figured out and his attitude problem aside...we could be looking at a stud 2 or 3 starter in our rotation for year sto come. I'd hate to see him succeed with another team since we put up with his ok to bad pitching for so many years. But then again...we all might be jumping the gun.

Ol' No. 2
05-02-2005, 01:23 PM
I don't think he'll be making $10M next season. Like Loaiza, he'll have to prove himself each month, and then again next season. He only makes $10M next year if he wins the Cy Young.Agreed. No way an arbitrator awards him $10M next year. And he's probably not going to go 34-0 this season. He'll cool off. They could probably sign him to a Buehrle-like contract. The only question is will they do it mid-season or wait until after the season.

GiveMeSox
05-02-2005, 01:23 PM
Id say 3 years 15 mil should do it. Backload it for payroll purposes at something like 4 then 5 then 6 mil over 3 years and that should do it.

MeanFish
05-02-2005, 01:29 PM
Or, if the team is doing well this season and doesn't need too much help via midseason trades we can actually frontload the contract starting next season and not be stuck with a big contract in a couple years if he regresses back to league-average territory.

Of course, I think the best policies with guys in Garland's situation are incentive-laden contracts with both fair ceilings and floors. Something like 4-yr, 12M with reasonable incentives up to $10M/yr (if he does something insane like win a Cy Young) but typically averaging out to about $5M a year if he does "the usual."

Kuzman
05-02-2005, 01:38 PM
Figures he'd show up during a contract year. (sorta)

owensmouth
05-02-2005, 01:41 PM
I don't think he'll be making $10M next season. Like Loaiza, he'll have to prove himself each month, and then again next season. He only makes $10M next year if he wins the Cy Young.Think of how much the free agent pitchers got this past year. The amount will only increase next year. And after those guys are signed, the arbeitrators will compare and contrast to decide whether some guy is worth what he's asking.

If Garland wins 20 this year, and he's close to the point that 1/2 of his remaining starts would get him there, he'll get at least ten million in arbeitration.

That's Williams' problem: he has to decide right now if JG is the real deal. If he waits much longer, Garland will collect that much from an arbeitrator for next year, then be gone.

Ol' No. 2
05-02-2005, 01:47 PM
Think of how much the free agent pitchers got this past year. The amount will only increase next year. And after those guys are signed, the arbeitrators will compare and contrast to decide whether some guy is worth what he's asking.

If Garland wins 20 this year, and he's close to the point that 1/2 of his remaining starts would get him there, he'll get at least ten million in arbeitration.

That's Williams' problem: he has to decide right now if JG is the real deal. If he waits much longer, Garland will collect that much from an arbeitrator for next year, then be gone.An arbitrator will consider more than one year, and with Garland's history of mediocrity, it will be tough to justify $10M for next year. I'd guess $6-8M would be more likely, depending on how well he finishes.

duke of dorwood
05-02-2005, 01:53 PM
His "real Problem" is Joe Crede-he has Borass for an agent-that would appear to be the immediate problem. If Garland has a reasonable agent, it will get done.

hold2dibber
05-02-2005, 02:04 PM
Think of how much the free agent pitchers got this past year. The amount will only increase next year. And after those guys are signed, the arbeitrators will compare and contrast to decide whether some guy is worth what he's asking.

If Garland wins 20 this year, and he's close to the point that 1/2 of his remaining starts would get him there, he'll get at least ten million in arbeitration.

That's Williams' problem: he has to decide right now if JG is the real deal. If he waits much longer, Garland will collect that much from an arbeitrator for next year, then be gone.

Even if Garland continues with a break-out year, he'll still never get $10 million in arbitration. Jaret Wright would be a fair comparison (he had a break out year last year) and he got a 3/year $21 million contract -- I would think Garland would get somewhere in that range (between $5 and $7 million) in arbitration.

soltrain21
05-02-2005, 02:07 PM
His "real Problem" is Joe Crede-he has Borass for an agent-that would appear to be the immediate problem. If Garland has a reasonable agent, it will get done.


I wouldn't be suprised to see Crede change his agent. I know Uribe used to have Boras and Uribe dropped him.

Flight #24
05-02-2005, 02:11 PM
Even if Garland continues with a break-out year, he'll still never get $10 million in arbitration. Jaret Wright would be a fair comparison (he had a break out year last year) and he got a 3/year $21 million contract -- I would think Garland would get somewhere in that range (between $5 and $7 million) in arbitration.

IIRC, Odalis perez got about 8mil. Matt Clement about 8-9mil. For a 1-year arb award, that's the right range.

Which is why the Sox should be able to get him at a guaranteed deal for a few years that average out to that # by starting lower and ramping up each year. Ala Garcia/Buehrle. I wouldn't be surprised if they work on something with him to lower his yr1 salary even further and up the last 2-3 years so that his big increase kicks in in 2 years when JC & Duque's contracts expire.

Fake Chet Lemon
05-02-2005, 02:16 PM
It may end up being we have to choose between Garland, Konerko or Thomas.

But if we draw well, and play in the postseason which is quite lucrative, the payroll budget will go up as well. But if I have to pick, I'd pick pitching. Let's hope we don't.

schmitty9800
05-02-2005, 02:16 PM
With the faith that Sox fans and the organization have put in him for the last few years, I really can't see him wanting to leave that much. Hopefully we'll get a good 3-4 year deal done after this season.

Flight #24
05-02-2005, 02:22 PM
It may end up being we have to choose between Garland, Konerko or Thomas.

But if we draw well, and play in the postseason which is quite lucrative, the payroll budget will go up as well. But if I have to pick, I'd pick pitching. Let's hope we don't.

In Frank's case, the decision will be him or Carl. Keeping Frank costs 10mil. Keeping Carl will cost 8.5mil (5mil team option + 3.5mil Frank buyout). I can't see them letting BOTH guys go.

IMO, you'll see a payroll bump after this year, and the departures of Carl, Shingo, Timo. The $$$ available will go towards a small raise for Konerko (9-10mil/yr) and a bigger one for Garland (8mil/yr). Then you'll see both Cubans go after '06, saving another 10mil.

tacosalbarojas
05-02-2005, 02:42 PM
I wouldn't be suprised to see Crede change his agent. I know Uribe used to have Boras and Uribe dropped him.I bet it was the other way around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen to Crede.

Fredsox
05-02-2005, 02:43 PM
It may end up being we have to choose between Garland, Konerko or Thomas.

But if we draw well, and play in the postseason which is quite lucrative, the payroll budget will go up as well. But if I have to pick, I'd pick pitching. Let's hope we don't.

I think that if we are forced to choose, maintaining the pitching staff will be the final requirement. The team sees themselves as being able to do what the Braves did through the 90's with that strong staff. Some position players may have to be lost over this, but this is no different then letting Ordonez or Lee go. To your point, if we draw well we don't have this problem anyway because we'll be able to afford to keep who we want.

DickAllen72
05-02-2005, 05:59 PM
In Frank's case, the decision will be him or Carl. Keeping Frank costs 10mil. Keeping Carl will cost 8.5mil (5mil team option + 3.5mil Frank buyout). I can't see them letting BOTH guys go.

IMO, you'll see a payroll bump after this year, and the departures of Carl, Shingo, Timo. The $$$ available will go towards a small raise for Konerko (9-10mil/yr) and a bigger one for Garland (8mil/yr). Then you'll see both Cubans go after '06, saving another 10mil.

Keep Carl and Shingo, they're relatively cheap. Let Konerko go. He's not worth 9-10mil/yr. We'll have to wait and see on Frank, but if he plays well this year when he comes back, we should work out a reasonable multi year deal with him that would have him finish his career with the Sox.

jabrch
05-02-2005, 07:03 PM
Everyone is looking for problems...

Right now he probably is not concerned about JG's contract status. I think he is much more focused on this year. He certainly isn't going to give JG 4/40 after 5 starts. If Garland keeps it up over the course of an entire season - then they will address it in the off season. Or even later during the regular season...

but now - that's not one of KWs problems.

Hangar18
05-02-2005, 07:11 PM
I dont like this thread ...........one ........... bit.
Just knowing that certain guys are due "raises", makes me ill.
The SOX, will simply let them go .......