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View Full Version : How long should a slump last for a 'good' hitter


gosox41
04-30-2005, 09:44 AM
Not trying to rip an PK or Dye here. But reality is they are good, proven major league hitters. And I realize every hitter is different, obviously. But watching last night's dreadful performace in the cold made me wonder, how long should a good, proven hitter like PK or Dye slump.

Good hitters are good because they minimize slumps. I know weather has been an issue, but the Sox have had some good weather for April at home and played 3 games in a dome and 3 games in Oakland.

I'm not panicking, just getting frustrated. It's time for the 'good, proven' hitters to pick it up and do what they're supposed. The season is 15% old and these guys have had roughly 90-100 AB's.

The Sox are where they are becaus of their pitching. It's time for the O to start producing.



Bob

A. Cavatica
04-30-2005, 09:53 AM
PK has a track record of disappearing for months at a time. Last year was the exception.

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 09:58 AM
Some good hitters are streaky. Others are consistant. We have more streaky-good hitters than consitantly good ones. The best hitters are consistantly awesome, but they are rare. We only have one of those and he's on the DL right now and can't run very well.

Jjav829
04-30-2005, 10:00 AM
On May 18th last year, Frank was hitting .243. The year before, Frank was hitting .226 on May 6th. Does that help answer your question?

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 10:19 AM
On May 18th last year, Frank was hitting .243. The year before, Frank was hitting .226 on May 6th. Does that help answer your question?

He also had a .440 OBP last year on May 18th and a .422 OBP in 2003 on May 6th. He had so few at bats due to all of his walks at that point in 2004 that his average was back up to .283 two days later.

voodoochile
04-30-2005, 10:26 AM
He also had a .440 OBP last year on May 18th and a .422 OBP in 2003 on May 6th. He had so few at bats due to all of his walks at that point in 2004 that his average was back up to .283 two days later.

I remember that. Wasn't there a point in April where he had 33% more walks than anyone else in the majors?

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 10:30 AM
I remember that. Wasn't there a point in April where he had 33% more walks than anyone else in the majors?

Probably not, but maybe more than anyone else except Barry Bonds. He led or was second in the AL in OBP (No one was going to come close to Bonds) nearly the entire time he was with us and probably was on his way to an MVP season before he got hurt.

mdep524
04-30-2005, 10:32 AM
He also had a .440 OBP last year on May 18th and a .422 OBP in 2003 on May 6th. He had so few at bats due to all of his walks at that point in 2004 that his average was back up to .283 two days later. Exactly. When Frank slumps, which I admit happens relatively often even during a good season, he still helps the team by drawing walks and driving in runs. When Paulie slumps, he adds absolutely nothing to the offense.

The other thing about Konerko, and an offshoot to this thread title, is how long should a hot streak last for a good player? Paulie started the year on fire, leading the majors in homers and hitting near .300. But his hot streak lasted only a couple of weeks, and has since descended into this current slump. Why does it seem to be that his slumps always last longer than his hot streaks?

kevingrt
04-30-2005, 10:59 AM
PK was the total opposite of clutch yesterday, he is in a huge slump and is way overdue to perform. The Dye situation is also not good, however I disagree with Ozzie's move in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded and one out to pinch hit Timo for Dye. Personally, I thought Dye had a much better chance on connecting with a fastball and hitting a sac fly to end the game right there. But I am not the manager and cannot make those decisions. Yeah, everything is 20/20 in hindsight but I was very iffy on that decesion to PH Timo.

MUsoxfan
04-30-2005, 11:25 AM
Jeter was 0-32 last year and still had a fine year. I don't want more hitting, I want more clutch hitting. I don't care if there's a HR when it's meaningless to the game. I want a single when there's a guy in scoring position. It will come. Bats will warm up with the weather.

RKMeibalane
04-30-2005, 11:34 AM
PK has a track record of disappearing for months at a time. Last year was the exception.

Correct. This is nothing new for Konerko, who appears to have reverted to his 2003 form. Dye has been even worse, though an A's fan I spoke to said that Jermaine is extremely streaky. Maybe things will improve once Frank comes back, but since we don't know when that will be, the rest of the team needs to get things togther.

RKMeibalane
04-30-2005, 11:37 AM
On May 18th last year, Frank was hitting .243. The year before, Frank was hitting .226 on May 6th. Does that help answer your question?

Frank draws enough walks that he still helps the team. The problem with Konerko and Dye is that neither of them is willing to be patient and take walks. I don't want to put too much on Konerko's shoulder, but with Frank gone, he is the leader of the Sox offensive attack. If Paulie doesn't hit, the Sox are going to be in trouble sooner or later.

DickAllen72
04-30-2005, 11:45 AM
A first baseman with absolutely no speed who is being paid $8 million should at least hit consistently to earn that kind of money, especially when he's supposed to be the cleanup hitter.

Short slumps are acceptable for a one dimensional highest paid position player on a team, but prolonged slumps are hard to tolerate from such a player. That kind of money can be better spent elsewhere.

Let's hope Paulie doesn't fall into that category again this year.

Lip Man 1
04-30-2005, 12:07 PM
Well we know 'good' hitters shouldn't be in a 'slump' for a month. Just ask Ozzie:

"My hitters have to come out of their shell. I know everyone in the lineup can hit, but it's been a month, and they haven't.'' --Ozzie Guillen to the Sun-Times Tony Ginnetti.

Lip

Jjav829
04-30-2005, 04:38 PM
He also had a .440 OBP last year on May 18th and a .422 OBP in 2003 on May 6th. He had so few at bats due to all of his walks at that point in 2004 that his average was back up to .283 two days later.

Frank draws enough walks that he still helps the team. The problem with Konerko and Dye is that neither of them is willing to be patient and take walks. I don't want to put too much on Konerko's shoulder, but with Frank gone, he is the leader of the Sox offensive attack. If Paulie doesn't hit, the Sox are going to be in trouble sooner or later.

Where did I say he doesn't draw walks? Show me, cause I'd like to know. The point was made that Dye and Konerko are not hitting right now. There's a difference between hitting and walking. I pointed out that even a good hitter, such as Frank, can go through points where he doesn't hit very well.

The Racehorse
04-30-2005, 04:42 PM
How long should a slump last for a 'good' hitter? One really BIG bender.

gosox41
04-30-2005, 05:01 PM
PK has a track record of disappearing for months at a time. Last year was the exception.


I noticed this trend and I didn't want to get people riled up about PK and his contract status.

I will say that because of PK's history of being streaky like this 5 out of 6 years in the majors, I am concerned. Hopefully maturity will change him.



Bob

gosox41
04-30-2005, 05:02 PM
On May 18th last year, Frank was hitting .243. The year before, Frank was hitting .226 on May 6th. Does that help answer your question?

Honestly, no. Because neither one of these guys are anywhere near the hitter Frank is.

I don't doubt Frank. But I do doubt a ballplayer who has a history of having 1 good half and 1 bad and another who's best 2 years were 5 years ago and has nagging injuries over the years that may slow him down.


Bob

voodoochile
04-30-2005, 05:05 PM
I noticed this trend and I didn't want to get people riled up about PK and his contract status.

I will say that because of PK's history of being streaky like this 5 out of 6 years in the majors, I am concerned. Hopefully maturity will change him.



Bob

Him and actually most of the hitters seem to be looking to pull the ball all the time. Teams have been throwing off-speed stuff on the outer half. The hitters need to adjust and start going the other way like they were early in the year. It's what led to Crede getting off to his hot start, but now even he is back to pulling the ball.

Rocklive99
04-30-2005, 05:13 PM
There's no way of telling no matter who the hitter, there's just some defining moment though where you can tell that the slump is over.

For PK it's weird, certain pitchers will put him in real bad slumps (Santana, it seemed like Harden did it too, knuckleballers, etc)

Jjav829
04-30-2005, 05:30 PM
FWIW, there are a lot of big names struggling early. Take a look at some of the averages being posted by big players.

Abreu: .259
Manny Ramirez: .263
Crawford: .255
Rolen: .256
Helton: .264
Beltre: .253
Aramis Ramirez: .253
Ortiz: .267
Thome: .208
Chavez: .193
Edmonds: .258
Posada: .244
Blalock: .255
Furcal: .235
Renteria: .230
Victor Martinez: .215
Vernon Wells: .198
Lowell: .190
Carlos Lee: .216
Piazza: .222
Brian Giles: .207
Finley: .157
Kendall: .250
Andruw Jones: .214

All of these guys are better hitters than their early season BA would indicate. So I guess to go back to the original question, slumps can last for a while even with good hitters. Manny Ramirez is probably the best hitter in baseball not named Pujols and he's only hitting .263 a month into the season. Thome is one of the best power hitters in baseball, and it took him what, 3 weeks to get his first homer? He has one on the year. Griffey went deep today for his first HR of the year....and it's nearly May. Bobby Abreu is a Top 10 hitter and he's only hitting .259 with a HR and 7 RBI. Travis Hafner just hit his 1st HR of the year today. Sean Casey's not hitting well. J.D. Drew got off to a very slow start. Hideki Matsui has crashed back to earth after a great start. There are plenty of good hitters struggling. For every Brian Roberts, there's a Steve Finley and a Mike Lowell. For every Clint Barmes, there's a Vernon Wells and an Eric Chavez.

balke
04-30-2005, 05:33 PM
Don't Forget C-LEE who is at about .210 and killing my fantasy team. :angry:.

And apparently Jacque Jones is going to hit .400 this year

RKMeibalane
04-30-2005, 05:35 PM
Where did I say he doesn't draw walks? Show me, cause I'd like to know. The point was made that Dye and Konerko are not hitting right now. There's a difference between hitting and walking. I pointed out that even a good hitter, such as Frank, can go through points where he doesn't hit very well.

That wasn't my point. The difference between Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko or Jermaine Dye is that Frank finds other ways to get on base, even when he's struggling. Part of being a good offensive player means being able to do other things besides record base hits. Right now, Konerko and Dye- Dye especailly- are not doing the little things to help the ballclub. What is perhaps the most irritating part about the situation is that both of them are making it easy for opposing pitchers to get them out.

I don't expect Paulie or Dye to change overnight, but I do think it's fair to expect them to be more selective at the plate.

RKMeibalane
04-30-2005, 05:39 PM
FWIW, there are a lot of big names struggling early. Take a look at some of the averages being posted by big players.

Abreu: .259
Manny Ramirez: .263
Crawford: .255
Rolen: .256
Helton: .264
Beltre: .253
Aramis Ramirez: .253
Ortiz: .267
Thome: .208
Chavez: .193
Edmonds: .258
Posada: .244
Blalock: .255
Furcal: .235
Renteria: .230
Victor Martinez: .215
Vernon Wells: .198
Lowell: .190
Carlos Lee: .216
Piazza: .222
Brian Giles: .207
Finley: .157
Kendall: .250
Andruw Jones: .214

All of these guys are better hitters than their early season BA would indicate. So I guess to go back to the original question, slumps can last for a while even with good hitters. Manny Ramirez is probably the best hitter in baseball not named Pujols and he's only hitting .263 a month into the season. Thome is one of the best power hitters in baseball, and it took him what, 3 weeks to get his first homer? He has one on the year. Griffey went deep today for his first HR of the year....and it's nearly May. Bobby Abreu is a Top 10 hitter and he's only hitting .259 with a HR and 7 RBI. Travis Hafner just hit his 1st HR of the year today. Sean Casey's not hitting well. J.D. Drew got off to a very slow start. Hideki Matsui has crashed back to earth after a great start. There are plenty of good hitters struggling. For every Brian Roberts, there's a Steve Finley and a Mike Lowell. For every Clint Barmes, there's a Vernon Wells and an Eric Chavez.

I understand what you're saying, but remember that many of the players on your list have other players in the lineup with them comphensating for their lack of production. The Sox are getting little from the majority of their lineup.

A. Cavatica
04-30-2005, 05:57 PM
Another way of asking this question is "How many at-bats does it take before talent wins out over luck?"

At the end of every April, there are some players posting phenomenal numbers and some posting awful numbers. At the end of May, most of those players have come back to Earth, but some are still "hot". By midseason you can tell who's really having a good (or bad) year and who just had an early hot (or cold) streak.

In other words, it isn't that unusual for a good hitter to have a two month slump. We shouldn't be that concerned about Dye yet; to some degree, his slump is a product of luck. The danger is that he'll overreact, change his swing and make matters worse. I think that's what Konerko tends to do.