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buehrle4cy05
04-29-2005, 08:04 PM
With Clemens facing Maddux on 4/29, it could be the last time we see 2 300 game winners pitch in the same game. Who else has a shot?
Obvious candidates
-Tim Hudson
-Mark Buehrle
-Mark Mulder

Sleeper
-Zack Greinke

Time has passed
-Tom Glavine

All Buehrle, Hudson, and Mulder do is win games. With the Cards offense behind Mulder (and Buehrle soon:(:), and Hudson not needed much run support, these guys have a decent shot at 300. Zack Grienke has a chance because he got started so early, BUT he doesn't have much of a team to pitch for in KC. If he ever gets out of there, he could be something. Glavine needs to pitch for too many more years to get 300.

popilius
04-30-2005, 12:45 AM
I'd put C.C. Sabathia in for a contender. This was a discussion sometime last year, I believe, and there was a website that posted the statistical paces of active pitchers to reach 300, and Sabathia was far ahead of everybody.

:gulp:

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 12:52 AM
Jon Garland is only 25 years old and has 50 wins :o:

balke
04-30-2005, 02:21 AM
There's that Santana guy. I have a feeling about Beckett too. Dontrelle isn't even 22 yet I don't believe, and may have just turned a corner. Randy Johnson will probably get there. Glavine might get there. Pedro? It would be tough for Pedro, but maybe if he has a long career as some have.


Buehrle would have to step to the next level soon as a top teir pitcher. He wins, and will win through his career, but he'd have to rack up some 20 win seasons. If you think Hudson has a shot, then Matt Morris has a shot.

I'd watch Halladay in his career as well. Maybe Oswalt, but I think he might be injury prone.

That's all I can think of. And most are long shots.

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 11:38 AM
There's that Santana guy. I have a feeling about Beckett too. Dontrelle isn't even 22 yet I don't believe, and may have just turned a corner. Randy Johnson will probably get there. Glavine might get there. Pedro? It would be tough for Pedro, but maybe if he has a long career as some have.


Buehrle would have to step to the next level soon as a top teir pitcher. He wins, and will win through his career, but he'd have to rack up some 20 win seasons. If you think Hudson has a shot, then Matt Morris has a shot.

I'd watch Halladay in his career as well. Maybe Oswalt, but I think he might be injury prone.

That's all I can think of. And most are long shots.

Just about everyone you mention excpet Buerhle and maybe Hudson dont have a realistic shot IMO. Santana is older than Garland and yet he has fewer wins! RJ would have to pitch 3 more years or more at a dominating level to get there. Buehrle's 26 and on track for 20 wins this year. That would take him to about 90 at the age of 27, which is a potential 300 win track.

It's doubtful that any of these pitchers will reach that total, but of all, I'd say Buehrle has teh best shot to be quite honest.

ma-gaga
04-30-2005, 12:00 PM
Just about everyone you mention excpet Buerhle and maybe Hudson dont have a realistic shot IMO. Santana is older than Garland and yet he has fewer wins! RJ would have to pitch 3 more years or more at a dominating level to get there. Buehrle's 26 and on track for 20 wins this year. That would take him to about 90 at the age of 27, which is a potential 300 win track.

It's doubtful that any of these pitchers will reach that total, but of all, I'd say Buehrle has teh best shot to be quite honest.

I think the key number to remember is 150 wins by age 30. It doesn't sound that difficult really, but it is. Buehrle has a shot, but he has to play for another 12-15 years... That's just too far out to project.

IMO, Johnson is probably the most likely candidate, but even he is a long shot at this point.

MRKARNO
04-30-2005, 12:24 PM
I think the key number to remember is 150 wins by age 30. It doesn't sound that difficult really, but it is. Buehrle has a shot, but he has to play for another 12-15 years... That's just too far out to project.

IMO, Johnson is probably the most likely candidate, but even he is a long shot at this point.

I'm with you there. I see Buehrle right around 140-150 by the age of 30, so I think he has a great shot. His ability to go deep into games, pitch a lot of innings and get 33+ starts on an annual basis are in his favor, as well as his becoming a full time pitcher at 22 and pitching excellently from day one. He needs a few 20 win years and this year needs to be his first (or at least 18-19) if he's going to give it a run. If he can get to 150 in the next four years (20 wins a year average), then he would only have to average 15 a year to get to that total. It's really difficult, but with Buehrle's skill set, you would have to imagine that he has as good a chance as any to do this.

Chicago83
04-30-2005, 02:10 PM
There is no way Johnson will do it. He is 52 short and is not going to pitch for three more years. I think Buerhle is the mosty likely canidate as he is not a hard thrower and therefore should last longer than most of the other guys.

balke
04-30-2005, 02:19 PM
I can't see Johnson retiring for at least 2 more years. He's old enough to, but he's on the Yankees, and probably wants to win at least one more ring. If he does retire, I just see him coming back midseason or something, he's got too much stuff left in the tank. He'll pitch forever like Nolan Ryan.

Pedro is a bit of a long shot, but if he can last he's a pretty smart pitcher that can probably do it without his arm.

Beckett is underrated cause he got injured last season. I think this'll be a breakout year for him, and Dontrelle has a great start as a 22 year old if he keeps winning like this all season/career.

I said Santana, cause the guy hasn't lost in a long time. he might just win 20+ consistantly throughout his career, and his most devastating pitch may be his curve.

They are all long shots, but these are the people I see winning for a long time, or people that have the drive to get there. I would say the P word, but he's too injury prone it seems.

dcb33
04-30-2005, 02:44 PM
Just about everyone you mention excpet Buerhle and maybe Hudson dont have a realistic shot IMO. Santana is older than Garland and yet he has fewer wins! RJ would have to pitch 3 more years or more at a dominating level to get there. Buehrle's 26 and on track for 20 wins this year. That would take him to about 90 at the age of 27, which is a potential 300 win track.

It's doubtful that any of these pitchers will reach that total, but of all, I'd say Buehrle has teh best shot to be quite honest.

I'd say Hudson is much more of a long shot at this point than Buehrle because Hudson is already 29 and has won 92 games. If he can win 18 more this year that would put him at 110 by age 30. Assuming he pitched until he was 42 he'd have to average 16 wins per season, which is a pretty tall order.

I really like Buerhle's chances of hitting 300 wins because he started early, wins consistently, and most importantly (knock on wood) has a knack for avoiding the injury bug.

buehrle4cy05
04-30-2005, 03:58 PM
I can't see Johnson retiring for at least 2 more years. He's old enough to, but he's on the Yankees, and probably wants to win at least one more ring. If he does retire, I just see him coming back midseason or something, he's got too much stuff left in the tank. He'll pitch forever like Nolan Ryan.


Don't forget, Johnson is pitching with no cartilige in one of his knees.

MHOUSE
04-30-2005, 09:46 PM
I think it's far too early to project how any of these guys will do. Mulder, Hudson, and Buehrle are all consistently good pitchers, but they have to do this another 4 or 5 years to set themselves up for a run. Anyone under 25 has to have a few injury-free years to get that consistency down. Santana had one breakout year after being a Rule 5 Draftee. If he wins 20 again in the next three years and 15+ inbetween then we can talk.

Frater Perdurabo
04-30-2005, 10:14 PM
Jon Garland is only 25 years old and has 50 wins :o:

Since you brought it up....

While it is a long shot and early at this point to project career stats for Garland, it is pretty amazing to be 25 with 50 career wins. If his success so far this season isn't a flash in the pan, and he gets on a run of averaging 18 wins per year for the next five years, he'll be 30 with 140 wins. It's never been a matter of Garland not having good stuff, it's always been his head. Sometimes, "head" problems are just a matter of maturity. While he's been in the majors since 2000, as a ground ball pitcher, he doesn't throw as many pitches as strikeout guys. So he's got the makeup to have a "low mileage" arm. While it's not probable, it's certainly possible Garland could end up with 250 career wins.

White Sox Josh
05-01-2005, 12:09 PM
I'd say Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson have the best shot. A sleeper could be Sabathia but he has to pick it up.

WhiteSoxFan84
05-01-2005, 01:54 PM
You biased White Sox fans, how can you forget the obvious choice; Carrie Woods. At the age of 28 he has 68 wins and is BEYOND DURABLE. He will pitch until he's 45, injury free. I think he will win 350 games.

On a more serious note, Mark Prior (24 years old, 33 wins) and Jon Garland (25 years old, 50 wins) have an outside chance of winning 250-300. Not being biased at all, but based on durability and consistency, Garland has the better shot.

balke
05-01-2005, 02:07 PM
You biased White Sox fans, how can you forget the obvious choice; Carrie Woods. At the age of 28 he has 68 wins and is BEYOND DURABLE. He will pitch until he's 45, injury free. I think he will win 350 games.

On a more serious note, Mark Prior (24 years old, 33 wins) and Jon Garland (25 years old, 50 wins) have an outside chance of winning 250-300. Not being biased at all, but based on durability and consistency, Garland has the better shot.

Dontrelle is 22 and has 29 wins, and plays on a team that looks to be good for a long time. 5-0 this season, with a new dominant delivery. I never liked this kid til this year, seeing how he's corrected his form. I think he has as good a shot as anyone right now to have an unbelievable career. 5 games in undefeated, looks to be on his way to a 20 win season :o:!

WhiteSoxFan84
05-01-2005, 11:48 PM
Dontrelle is 22 and has 29 wins, and plays on a team that looks to be good for a long time. 5-0 this season, with a new dominant delivery. I never liked this kid til this year, seeing how he's corrected his form. I think he has as good a shot as anyone right now to have an unbelievable career. 5 games in undefeated, looks to be on his way to a 20 win season :o:!

Good point. I totally forgot about him. Former Cub prospect too so go D-Train.

Wasn't he off to a great start last year also? But didn't do so well?

ma-gaga
05-02-2005, 12:48 AM
Most of the guys mentioned in this thread are young awesome pitchers. But hey, look at where they are in 5 years, then 10, then 15.

You will have to pitch 20 years to make 300 wins. How many current active pitchers can do that??! 1. maybe 2. If they don't blow out their arms, or suddenly become ineffective, or get busted for steroids, get too fat, have a heart attack, break a leg, sign a long term deal with Colorado, tear a tendon, or whatever. 20 years is an amazingly long time.

Randy Johnson is "only" 3 years away from getting there. Buerhle is "only" 15 years away from there. There is no doubt in my mind which one has the better chance. I"m not trying to flame this, but 20 years!?!

Greinke has a shot because he's so young. Same with Zambrano, or Kazmir, or Bonderman, but these guys are just so young it's impossible to tell where they'll be in 5 years. Two years ago, Prior was a mortal lock to hit 300. Now, he'll be lucky to get a decent 10 year career in (Dusty Baker should be shot...). Even the Oakland/ex-Oakland 'big three' come up a little short. I'd love it if Santana gets close, but he's already 25 and only has 43 wins in. Maybe if he can pitch for another 15 years, but he just doesn't seem to have the body type to last that long. Maybe he can/will who knows, it's a long time away before anyone has to worry about that.

:gulp:

Frater Perdurabo
05-02-2005, 09:49 AM
Most of the guys mentioned in this thread are young awesome pitchers. But hey, look at where they are in 5 years, then 10, then 15.

You will have to pitch 20 years to make 300 wins. How many current active pitchers can do that??! 1. maybe 2. If they don't blow out their arms, or suddenly become ineffective, or get busted for steroids, get too fat, have a heart attack, break a leg, sign a long term deal with Colorado, tear a tendon, or whatever. 20 years is an amazingly long time.

Randy Johnson is "only" 3 years away from getting there. Buerhle is "only" 15 years away from there. There is no doubt in my mind which one has the better chance. I"m not trying to flame this, but 20 years!?!

Greinke has a shot because he's so young. Same with Zambrano, or Kazmir, or Bonderman, but these guys are just so young it's impossible to tell where they'll be in 5 years. Two years ago, Prior was a mortal lock to hit 300. Now, he'll be lucky to get a decent 10 year career in (Dusty Baker should be shot...). Even the Oakland/ex-Oakland 'big three' come up a little short. I'd love it if Santana gets close, but he's already 25 and only has 43 wins in. Maybe if he can pitch for another 15 years, but he just doesn't seem to have the body type to last that long. Maybe he can/will who knows, it's a long time away before anyone has to worry about that.

:gulp:

You're exactly right, ma-gaga. Zambrano and Prior are so "good" in the minds of fans because they get strikeouts. Getting strikeouts requires throwing a lot of hard pitches. They and Dontrelle Willis (among others) put a lot of miles on their arms and therefore are likely to burn out in a few years. (Having a crappy bullpen and a manager like Dusty Baker does not help them.) The only exceptions are guys with "rubber arms" like Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson who put in the countless hours of training and meticulously watch their diets, etc.

As a friend of mine said recently, the strikeout simply is MLB's version of a sexy yet almost worthless accomplishment, just like the slam dunk in basketball and the spike (after touchdown) in football.

Of course it's too early to speculate on anyone who has been in the league for a relatively short duration like Buehrle, Hudson or Garland.

Of course a pitcher needs to pitch for the long haul - often 20 years - to get anywhere close to 300 wins. The only way to pitch for such a long period of time is to avoid injury. Buehrle and Garland aren't hurlers. They don't rely on striekouts to win. They induce ground balls. They are more likely to retire the side on three or four pitches than the flamethrowers. Over the course of a career, all those easy innings add up to thousands fewer pitches thrown. Because they get by on smarts, location and discipline rather than "stuff," they are somewhat more likely to have long carrers than the much-ballyhooed strikeout artists. However, each of them (especially Buehrle) can get the strikeout when it's needed.

balke
05-02-2005, 12:26 PM
You're exactly right, ma-gaga. Zambrano and Prior are so "good" in the minds of fans because they get strikeouts. Getting strikeouts requires throwing a lot of hard pitches. They and Dontrelle Willis (among others) put a lot of miles on their arms and therefore are likely to burn out in a few years. (Having a crappy bullpen and a manager like Dusty Baker does not help them.) The only exceptions are guys with "rubber arms" like Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson who put in the countless hours of training and meticulously watch their diets, etc.

As a friend of mine said recently, the strikeout simply is MLB's version of a sexy yet almost worthless accomplishment, just like the slam dunk in basketball and the spike (after touchdown) in football.

Of course it's too early to speculate on anyone who has been in the league for a relatively short duration like Buehrle, Hudson or Garland.

Of course a pitcher needs to pitch for the long haul - often 20 years - to get anywhere close to 300 wins. The only way to pitch for such a long period of time is to avoid injury. Buehrle and Garland aren't hurlers. They don't rely on striekouts to win. They induce ground balls. They are more likely to retire the side on three or four pitches than the flamethrowers. Over the course of a career, all those easy innings add up to thousands fewer pitches thrown. Because they get by on smarts, location and discipline rather than "stuff," they are somewhat more likely to have long carrers than the much-ballyhooed strikeout artists. However, each of them (especially Buehrle) can get the strikeout when it's needed.


I agree its unpredictable, and anything can happen, but you just named Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Nolan Ryan, and said K's are only sexy. These are pitchers that have relied on hard fast stuff their whole careers, and have an amazing amount of K's. Hard fastball K's used to be all Randy Johnson had, he was wild and played for the Expos for a long time.

Dontrelle doesn't only rely on hard stuff, most of it is delivery, and he induces a lot of ground balls to get the W. This season his K ratio is probably higher, but look at his new delivery, the guy is sick. I'm sure he puts in the hours of meticulous training and diet as you mentioned for the others. I don't consider him a "Sexy K" guy. I reserve that for pitchers like Oliver Perez, Millwood, and Kerry Woods.

I don't think Garcia will even sniff 300, but he's still a great pitcher. Buehrle might, but he'll have to be on a winning ballclub for a while, and be quite immune to injuries.

Frater Perdurabo
05-02-2005, 12:35 PM
I agree its unpredictable, and anything can happen, but you just named Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Nolan Ryan, and said K's are only sexy. These are pitchers that have relied on hard fast stuff their whole careers, and have an amazing amount of K's. Hard fastball K's used to be all Randy Johnson had, he was wild and played for the Expos for a long time.

Dontrelle doesn't only rely on hard stuff, most of it is delivery, and he induces a lot of ground balls to get the W. This season his K ratio is probably higher, but look at his new delivery, the guy is sick. I'm sure he puts in the hours of meticulous training and diet as you mentioned for the others. I don't consider him a "Sexy K" guy. I reserve that for pitchers like Oliver Perez, Millwood, and Kerry Woods.

I don't think Garcia will even sniff 300, but he's still a great pitcher. Buehrle might, but he'll have to be on a winning ballclub for a while, and be quite immune to injuries.

I think we agree on most everything. Because 300 wins is an incredible achievement that requires amazing longevity AND with pitching excellence, we naturally can eliminate bad pitchers, average pitchers, above average pitchers, great pitchers who start their careers late, great pitchers who burn out too quickly and great pitchers who spend lots of time on the disabled list. Buehrle meets all the criteria, and so does Garland. Do I think either of them will win 300 games? No, but they have as good a chance as any other young MLB pitcher, and much more chance than many pitchers who have better stuff. We'll just have to watch them for the next 15 years, hopefully with both of them in the Sox rotation!

Tekijawa
05-02-2005, 01:09 PM
What About Kerry Woods? He had 20 strike outs in one game you know?

PAPChiSox729
05-02-2005, 07:32 PM
What About Kerry Woods? He had 20 strike outs in one game you know?

That has to count for at least 35 wins right there. I'm one of those that thinks that it will be a really long time before we see anyone win 300. I really can't see anyone that I would bet on winning 300 right now in the bigs. And the guys you mentioned (Mulder, Hudson, Buehrle) are outside shots to me. I hope Buehrle can, but he is going to have to start winning a lot and soon.

PatK
05-03-2005, 03:02 PM
Johnson, Ryan, and Clemens may be power pitchers, but they are also known for their insane in and off season conditioning (especially Nolan Ryan).

The younger power pitchers mentioned aren't known for that, and also have had injuries at one point in their young careers. You can't really say the same for Clemens and Ryan.

Ol' No. 2
05-03-2005, 03:04 PM
What About Kerry Woods? He had 20 strike outs in one game you know?It will take a miracle for Kerry Wood to have 300 STARTS in his career.

SoxxoS
05-03-2005, 03:31 PM
Whoever said Grienke I think is right on. He needs to get the hell of the Royals...and SOON...to do it, however. I love his stuff and delivery.

I think Rich Harden is Mark Prior without the injuries. It was stated when Passion came out of USC that his mechanics were "perfect." There was a link posted earlier that detailed Passion's bad mechanics. I think people got confused b/c Passion does look "effortless" when throwing the ball. I think if you break down Harden, he has the effortless look for Passion without the injury risk.

SOXfnNlansing
05-05-2005, 03:10 AM
I think that Buehrle has as good a chance as anyone else if he stays healthy. I just hope he stays on the South sidehttp://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=2784&stc=1 "I think the cubs will do good this year when sammy gets healthy"

Mohoney
05-05-2005, 04:18 AM
Brandon McCarthy.

soxfanreggie
05-05-2005, 11:06 AM
If Dontrelle can keep it up, he will likely be the best choice. However, gone are most days of pitching with a 4 man rotation that gives a pitcher so many extra starts.

balke
05-05-2005, 11:34 AM
I heard a story the other day talking about how players need PED's to make it through 160 games... and MLB might wanna think about shortening the season. I wonder if baseball goes back to its old 140 game schedule, although that would cut down on revenue.

StillMissOzzie
05-05-2005, 12:08 PM
I heard a story the other day talking about how players need PED's to make it through 160 games... and MLB might wanna think about shortening the season. I wonder if baseball goes back to its old 140 game schedule, although that would cut down on revenue.

PED's = ???

Cutting back to 140 games would not cause a loss in revenue, the ticket price would simply go up to cover the difference. It's not like the players are gonna take a pay cut for a shorter season.

Meanwhile, back to the thread... I may not even be alive to see the next 300 game winner. IMHO, the ones that are the closest now (Glavine, RJ) won't ever get there, and the ones with the best chances (Buehrle, Santana, Willis, Sabathia, etc.) are all at least 15-20 years away. Enjoy Clemens and Maddux while you can, they may be the last of a dying breed.

SMO
:gulp:

balke
05-05-2005, 12:32 PM
Performance Enhancing Drugs. I'm wondering if they shorten the season, and perhaps eventually go back to 4 man rotations. 4-man rotations will probably never happen again, and if the seasons get shorter that's even less opportunities to catch wins.

soxfanreggie
05-05-2005, 12:54 PM
It depends on the rest between games...4 man rotations would work if there were extra days off.

owensmouth
05-05-2005, 01:40 PM
140 game seasons? How far back are you going? Fifty years ago it was 154 game seasons. The primary reason that baseball was able to increase to the 162 game season was the availability of air transportation, specifically jet aircraft.

The interesting thing about the fifties is that no one was on performance enhancing drugs, they are something that got added in the 70s. If players have to be rested occasionally, do it. Don't use the length of the season as an excuse to use drugs.