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soxfan123
04-29-2005, 02:58 PM
Here's the story (you need insider):
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2049687

His points are contradicting, but I like it because if the Sox don't prevail, no one cares, but if they do succeed, we will be yet another example for the holes in the beloved "experts"...Under the radar..

MUScholar21
04-29-2005, 03:03 PM
Okay. I get it. No one but us likes the White Sox. But this whole media, bash 'em cause we can't explain 'em thing is just getting old. Without looking at this as a fan, I have a question: Can ANYONE remember a team that was so disrespected as the White Sox? I just don't get it. This is the latest (it is from ESPN Insider, which is why I pasted the whole thing-so even if you aren't paying ESPN for stories, you can see this. Here is the link though:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2049687

White Sox living charmed life





Here's why I don't believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their pitchers obviously can't keep pitching as well as they have.

Here's why I do believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their hitters obviously can't keep hitting as terribly as they have.

I haven't gone searching, but I suspect that with a few seconds of "work" I could find an editorial or three praising Ozzie Guillen for his self-described "smart ball" (which Guillen prefers to the term "small ball"). Indeed, the White Sox are tied for the league lead in stolen bases, sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies. That's smart.



Mod Edit: Please do not post entire articles

mweflen
04-29-2005, 03:11 PM
can you summarize his points, perhaps with some quotes?

every time i see that pic, it cracks me up :redneck

Charno
04-29-2005, 03:12 PM
Well, I agree that the White Sox will probably not have the best record in the AL. But will they win the division? I think they have a very good chance.

seanpmurphy
04-29-2005, 03:14 PM
I sent that pic to all of my Cubs fan friends with the message "What Cubs fans will look like all season long"

They didn't like it :rolleyes:

cbrownson13
04-29-2005, 03:15 PM
"Here's why I don't believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their pitchers obviously can't keep pitching as well as they have. Here's why I do believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their hitters obviously can't keep hitting as terribly as they have."


"There's not a lot to say about those close games; as I'm sure you know, if you go 9-2 in one-run games you've probably been more than a little lucky, and you probably won't continue to win 82 percent of those games."


"You might think – and you might think this particularly if you're a White Sox fan – that these pitchers are all doing so well because either 1) they're better coached this season, or 2) it's just one of those years when everything comes together. The likely truth is that this is just one of those months when everything comes together."


"Can they win that way? Not the way they're hitting. The White Sox currently sport a .311 on-base percentage, and without checking I'd guess it's been some time since a team finished in first place with a .311 on-base percentage."


"It's hard to argue against something called "smart ball" ... assuming, of course, that smart ball has room for big guys hitting big flies. Otherwise, in five months we can rechristen Ozzie Guillen's brain child as "dumb ball." And he can find gainful employment as a "bench coach."

Palehose Pete
04-29-2005, 03:17 PM
In sum, our pitchers will likely not sustain their April brilliance all year long and will also run into some bad luck along the way. We'll have a pitching staff that's a notch or two above middle-of-the-road. Our hitters will hit better, but our OBP won't improve much because guys like Pods and Dye aren't very good at getting on base. Our power hitters left town (read Maggs and C. Lee) so we won't be able to take advantage of Comiskey and the homerun.

I say, "Feh."

DumpJerry
04-29-2005, 03:18 PM
I sent that pic to all of my Cubs fan friends with the message "What Cubs fans will look like all season long"

They didn't like it :rolleyes:
Everyone thinks she is crying because she was at Game 6 of the '03 NLCS.

Wrong. She just found out beer sales were cut off for the night and the only straight guy sitting in her section left for the bars.

mweflen
04-29-2005, 03:20 PM
well, he's right about the pitching not keeping this pace up. But he's wrong not to mention the fact that this .311 OBP will not remain the norm. Even if Dye, Rowand and Konerko only hit .250-.275 each, just their AB's will bring the team OBP up to about .350 or so.

Assuming that something good will falter is fine. More often than not, it does. But assuming that career hiters won't eventually get it together is just dumb.

MUScholar21
04-29-2005, 03:21 PM
I put the whole article up in What's the Score, didn't realize there was a thread over here. Probably could use a merger.

Uncle_Patrick
04-29-2005, 03:21 PM
I don't think this article is so bad. He's not saying that the Sox can't last, he is saying without hitting, they won't last. I agree that the offense must pick up. The pitching will not hold out forever. These guys need to get on base more and score more. We've been good in clutch situations so far, but the last game in Oakland (forget about the umps) was a perfect example of what happens when the offense doesn't take advantage of situations. Garcia pitched a real gem. The defense, for the most part, was ok, especially considering that the Sox had 3 players in positions that they never play normally. But the offense was lifeless.

The Sox have been doing good so far, but this team has to be firing on all cylinders (good pitching, good defense, and good offense) if they want to win this division.

mcfish
04-29-2005, 03:21 PM
Is someone going to write a "Orioles Won't Win AL East" article next? What about "Arizona Won't Win NL West?" Why is everyone in the media singling the Sox out and writing all these steaming piles of crap? I think I'd rather go back to having no one notice the Sox instead of having to come here every single day and find out that another writer has written about how bad the Sox are.

Ol' No. 2
04-29-2005, 03:22 PM
My response to Rob Neyer:

:bart

Dan H
04-29-2005, 03:25 PM
The only thing that concerns me about the media is that the Sox will prove them wrong. But face it, the Sox have a lot of proving to do.

Palehose Pete
04-29-2005, 03:25 PM
Is someone going to write a "Orioles Won't Win AL East" article next? What about "Arizona Won't Win NL West?" Why is everyone in the media singling the Sox out and writing all these steaming piles of crap? I think I'd rather go back to having no one notice the Sox instead of having to come here every single day and find out that another writer has written about how bad the Sox are.


I suppose it's a compliment of sorts that someone would take the time to try to knock us back to earth. Indifference to our success would certainly be worse, I think.

tlebar318
04-29-2005, 03:26 PM
Sox Fans: Rob Neyer won't win any baseball expert analysis awards! :D:

Tekijawa
04-29-2005, 03:28 PM
Everyone thinks she is crying because she was at Game 6 of the '03 NLCS.

Wrong. She just found out beer sales were cut off for the night and the only straight guy sitting in her section left for the bars.

And the ball player's last name, who was in full Cubs uniform, that she hooked up with at the Bar the night before wasn't really Woo Woo like it said on the back of his jersey!:gulp:

Cubbiesuck13
04-29-2005, 03:28 PM
I haven't gone searching but I suspect with a few seconds of "work" I could find an editorial or three praising Guillen for his self described "smart ball" at least he is admitting it this time.

seanpmurphy
04-29-2005, 03:29 PM
I don't know. I'm starting to like the fact the Sox are so disrespected. Maybe we should relish the fact that everyone hates us, and we're still #1....It's kind of like being America!

SoxFan76
04-29-2005, 03:32 PM
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I don't care if experts don't pick the Sox to win the central. It doesn't bother me. I don't care if they pick the Twins, as they deserve it. I have a problem when they rip on the Sox and put no actual thought into their arguments. True, the pitchers won't keep this up all year long, but those are 5 solid starters Ozzie is putting out there. They are going to give you a quality start the vast majority of the time. And if they don't? Well the bullpen is very deep and can shut down the oppoent for 4, even 5 innings if neccessary. And you think the Sox will have a .311 OBP all year long? Of course not! The middle of the order isn't even hitting, yet the Sox are 10 games above .500 after only 16 games. I think the Sox are in good shape.

shoota
04-29-2005, 03:37 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2049687

White Sox living charmed life

http://espn-att.starwave.com/i/story/design05/insider_byline.gif (http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/index)
http://espn-att.starwave.com/i/columnists/Neyer_Rob_30.jpg (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/archive?columnist=neyer_rob&root=mlb)
By Rob Neyer
ESPN Insider


Nevertheless, the White Sox finished third in scoring last season, and they did it with power. Nobody noticed, but the Sox hit 242 home runs, exactly as many as the Yankees hit. Granted, a lot of that was the ballpark – new Comiskey is a power hitter's dream – but if the White Sox don't hit home runs, they're simply not going to score enough runs. And thus far they haven't hit many home runs, only 21 in 22 games. It's hard to argue against something called "smart ball" ... assuming, of course, that smart ball has room for big guys hitting big flies. Otherwise, in five months we can rechristen Ozzie Guillen's brain child as "dumb ball." And he can find gainful employment as a "bench coach."


The reason he cites as why the Sox won't win the division is a lack of home runs--the only way Neyer believes the Sox can score--which he bases off of LAST YEAR'S team. He values home runs so much, even mentioning the 2004 Sox tieing the Yankees with 242 team home runs, and the Sox finishing third in scoring, but fails to mention/realize that the Sox DID NOT win the division in 2004. If the Sox had won the division in 2004, AND kept the same key personnel, and STILL changed team philosophy to "smartball," his article would have merit.

But since "powerball" didn't win the division in 2004, and key "powerball" personnel of the 2004 team have been replaced with players whose strengths are "smartball," Neyer's article is not only inaccurate, but illogical.

And that last two sentences from Neyer is very insulting to Ozzie Guillen.

Didn't WSI have a beef with this guy before?

balke
04-29-2005, 03:39 PM
This certainly is a surprising showing from our pitching staff, but for the most part I think they're legit. In fact, Buehrle is better than his #'s show so far.

Garland has had the potential to do this his whole career. He's just now coming into an age where a lot of people break out of their shells.

El Duque is El Duque, with some of the sickest movement on his pitches in the league. He always brings attitude, and fire to the mound. He may get injured, but I still think he could have even better outings than he's shown so far. He had a lot of control last game of his pitches, but imagine a game of pinpoint control with his arm...

Garcia is supposed to be this good, or better. The whole fiasco with his equilibrium being out of whack for 2 slumping seasons is over. He's in chicago and happy, coached by a friend. He's hitting his spots, and is backed by a solid staff. Hopefully we start scoring for him.

Contreras might be overachieving, I can't tell. When he's on he's one of the most dominating pitchers in the league. We acquired him as a sort of "project" because the sox coaches thought they could fix something in his delivery. He's seem to have found a way to stop the bleeding in "the big inning", and we haven't seen one of his dominant performances yet, that he always squeezes out every now and then. Maybe he buckles, and his walks catch up to him, but if they haven't yet I'm fairly confident there's a reason for it.

A.J. Pierzynski rules this staff with an iron fist IMO. He's called great games, and we need someone like him with a quick pitcher like MB, and a young pitcher like Garland.

Our Bullpen isn't our fifth starter anymore. There is no Billy Koch, or Mike Jackson. For the most part, the pitchers get full rest, and everyone is good. They might not hold on to be THIS good all season, but I would imagine they'd be very good nonetheless. Especially if Shingo really has found a way to get people out, and isn't just lucky that the batters are popping up now.

The only big thing that might cost our staff some ERA, or that will break it down at this point would either be a big injury, or the fact that our middle infield is seriously downgraded without Uribe in the game.

maurice
04-29-2005, 03:42 PM
Didn't he just pick us to win the division about a month ago, after he was clued in about the Dye signing? :?:

There's not a lot to say about those close games; as I'm sure you know, if you go 9-2 in one-run games you've probably been more than a little lucky, and you probably won't continue to win 82 percent of those games.
He's been saying this about the twins for the past 3 years. :rolling:

The White Sox currently sport a .311 on-base percentage, and without checking I'd guess it's been some time since a team finished in first place with a .311 on-base percentage.
I don't know about that, but the last time the Sox won the WS, they had a .649 team OPS. :D:

jackbrohamer
04-29-2005, 03:44 PM
People actually pay to read that stuff?

mdep524
04-29-2005, 04:01 PM
If any other team gets out of the gate this fast (2003 Royals, any Cubs team, etc.), they are celebrated, at the very least as a feel good story, even if their success is of questionable sustainability. In the exact same situation, the Sox are bashed mercilessly. I just don't get it. :(:

WhiteSoxFan84
04-29-2005, 04:08 PM
Sox Fans: Rob Neyer won't win any baseball expert analysis awards! :D:

Absolutely NONE. The moron ADMITS to not doing any research beyond looking up the teams OBP and such stats anyone can look up in a matter of seconds. Neyer's a moron and the fact that this article is an ESPN INSIDER article makes me chuckle. They want me to pay for that garbage? Get off my desktop!

On a sad note; I was trying that whole fantasy game Beat the Streak on MLB.com. I put in my first 8 picks (one of them was Joe Crede) and I was on a 8-game hitting streak. But I forgot to put in a pick for yesterday and my streak ended :(:

MRKARNO
04-29-2005, 04:15 PM
Is someone going to write a "Orioles Won't Win AL East" article next? What about "Arizona Won't Win NL West?" Why is everyone in the media singling the Sox out and writing all these steaming piles of crap? I think I'd rather go back to having no one notice the Sox instead of having to come here every single day and find out that another writer has written about how bad the Sox are.

It's because the media actually does think that the White Sox can win the AL Central, but they just don't think it will happen. Nobody really thinks the DBacks or O's can win their respective divisions. I would take it as a compliment that people are writing columns saying that we will not win the division because it implies that they think it's a plausible outcome.

Uncle_Patrick
04-29-2005, 04:17 PM
The only thing that really bugs me about all these articles is that the attidude is the Sox cannot keep doing well at what they are currently doing well, yet they cannot improve in the areas that they aren't doing well. This is the basic premise of every single article:

"Its only April, the pitching has been great, but we (the media) can't believe that it will hold up. And, although it's only April, the offense won't improve (despite the presence of several proven hitters in the line up)."

NWSox
04-29-2005, 04:32 PM
The argument that the White Sox are playing over their heads, based on past performance, doesn't fly. The starting rotation as a group is unlikely to pitch this well all season (although Contreras and Garland are the only overachievers), but, as everyone has mentioned, the offense is just as likely to improve. Plus, key members of the bullpen (Shingo, Viz and Marte) are likely to pitch much better based on past performance.

The only biased argument I would make is that this could very well be a breakout year for Garland. We all know he has the potential to be more consistent, and his maturity combined with his spot in the rotation (less pressure as the fifth starter) could make this the year. You could make the argument that Garland alone, all other things being equal, could be enough to get the Sox to first place (16-18 wins out of the fifth spot in the rotation).

Jjav829
04-29-2005, 04:46 PM
You know, we can bitch and moan about this stuff but the truth is that it is understandable. I mean we're all White Sox fans, so of course we desperately want to believe that the pitching will continue like this and that the offense will get much better. But none of us know that for sure. And until the Sox can prove it over the course of a full season, I can see why people wouldn't believe we can keep this up. It's only been a month.

If this was the Twins or the Indians we were talking about, we'd all be sitting here claiming that there is no way they keep it up. Will the Sox keep it up? Who knows. No one knows for sure. There's a chance Garland, Contreras and El Duque will pitch at a level not too far off from where they are performing now. Is it likely? No, if you go by their career numbers, it isn't. So it's certainly easy to understand why people would feel that we'll fall off. But there's also a chance we could see the pitching perform well, not this well, but still well enough to win like this if the offense steps it up. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't.

Look at the Cardinals last year. No one believed they would win all year like they did. Who would have thought Matt Morris, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Woody Williams would carry them all year, especially with their best pitcher, Morris, having a down year? No one. They were doubted for a long time because few people believed those pitchers would keep it up. But they kept pitching at a high level, enough for the Cards to dominate the central. I would bet that quite a few people here were skeptical of the Cards pitching, as well.

elrod
04-29-2005, 04:53 PM
Neyer's comments are a variation on a theme we've been floating around here for a long time. The pitching will have to come down to earth and the hitting will have to get better. The question, then, is how will the ultimately resolution of those adjustments play out. Garland is clearly over-performing. Contreras is a bit lucky in terms of ERA but his WHIP is hardly overperforming at all.

On the OBP side, Dye, Konerko and Rowand will improve. Our OBP won't be at the top of the league, but it's reasonable to expect it to end up around the middle of the league. With top-ranked pitching and middling OBP we can go a long way.

The real threat to the team is injuries to the pitching. We've sustained a bunch of injuries to the fielders and have been able to keep things close. But if Buehrle or Garcia were to go down, we'd be in big trouble.

santo=dorf
04-29-2005, 04:53 PM
Rob Neyer was also the only "expert" at ESPN that predicted that the White Sox would win the division.

Go figure. :rolleyes:

Ol' No. 2
04-29-2005, 04:59 PM
I can hardly wait for the season to start so we'll have some baseball to talk about instead of the prognostications of a bunch of know-nothing sportswriters.

shaunburnette
04-29-2005, 05:01 PM
Geez.. lose 2 games and we are headed downhill...:angry:

balke
04-29-2005, 05:04 PM
I can hardly wait for the season to start so we'll have some baseball to talk about instead of the prognostications of a bunch of know-nothing sportswriters.

:D:

mweflen
04-29-2005, 05:05 PM
Rob Neyer was also the only "expert" at ESPN that predicted that the White Sox would win the division.

Go figure. :rolleyes:

He predicts us to take it before the season, then we start 16-6, and this changes his 'mind' why?

ma-gaga
04-29-2005, 05:42 PM
Look at the Cardinals last year.

That offense certainly helped. :cool:

He predicts us to take it before the season, then we start 16-6, and this changes his 'mind' why?

He looked at the OBP of this team and was distressed. The pitching has been lights out, but the offense is missing. If you get lights out pitching the rest of the year, the division is the W.Sox to lose. But this offense isn't that great. It isn't top 10. I'd be hard pressed to give it a top 20 rank.

Everyone's offense is starting out slow. It's not a local occurance. It'll be interesting to see the relationship between the offense and the pitching staff thru the rest of the year.

:gulp: mmmm happy hour.

balke
04-29-2005, 05:48 PM
Well, all I know is there were plenty of games we didn't score runs last year. And I watched us get beat 18-16 or something ridiculous like that.... TO THE EXPOS!

OBP means squat, if you're not getting the RBI's and runs scored. I saw far worse offensive performances last season, we've led every game this year so far. It could just be that OBP is overrated, and Billy Beane is wrong :o:.

Besides, our OBP will go up (Frank Thomas). Paulie might be kicked back to the 5th spot where he probably belongs, and we'll have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order with Pods and Iguchi. I have full confidence in this team, if Uribe isn't out too long.

SoxSpeed22
04-29-2005, 06:06 PM
Is someone going to write a "Orioles Won't Win AL East" article next? What about "Arizona Won't Win NL West?" Why is everyone in the media singling the Sox out and writing all these steaming piles of crap? I think I'd rather go back to having no one notice the Sox instead of having to come here every single day and find out that another writer has written about how bad the Sox are.Idiots have opinions, that's why they are writers. Besides, this is one of the many networks that prefers the Flubs. If writers want to hate us, hate us. That's still not gonna change a thing, because the season still needs to be played. Writers are right about 1% of the time anyway. Besides, if we win the world series before the Cubs, it's obvious that the rest of the world is gonna feel sorry for the Cubs while vilifying us. I'd rather be hated than ignored.

MisterB
04-29-2005, 06:14 PM
OBP means squat, if you're not getting the RBI's and runs scored. I saw far worse offensive performances last season, we've led every game this year so far. It could just be that OBP is overrated, and Billy Beane is wrong :o:.

FunFact™:

White Sox team OBP - .311

A's team OBP - .308

:D:

SoxFan48
04-29-2005, 09:37 PM
He predicts us to take it before the season, then we start 16-6, and this changes his 'mind' why?

Neyer believes (as do I) that OBP is the most significant offensive stat in baseball. He is right that a .311 OBP will never do it. Those on this board that argue that there is every reason to think our OPS should rise significantly are also right. There are some encouraging signs--Pods is starting to take walks in the basketful, the historical OBP of Everett, Konerko and Rowand is way below par. I am not even going to get into Dye--too much baggage.

So if the pitching (starting and relief) stays near the top of the league and the OPS moves to mean OBP for the league (currently .341) there is reason for optimism.

Neyer is right and those on the board that argue the OPS will go up are right. Win-win, isn't it wonderful?:D:

buehrle4cy05
04-29-2005, 10:02 PM
This may have already been posted, but didn't Neyer pick the Sox to win the AL Central in the preseason?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=05expertpicks

Rob Neyer,
ESPN Insider Red Sox over Phillies East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: A's East: Phillies
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers AL: Yankees
NL: Braves

RKMeibalane
04-29-2005, 10:26 PM
This may have already been posted, but didn't Neyer pick the Sox to win the AL Central in the preseason?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=05expertpicks

Rob Neyer,
ESPN Insider Red Sox over Phillies East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: A's East: Phillies
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers AL: Yankees
NL: Braves



I was about to ask the same question. It really bothers me that these writers don't seem to be able to stand by their original points. The entire sports media has become a collection of windsocks.

eastchicagosoxfan
04-29-2005, 10:35 PM
And Rob Neyer is.........Who is he? Why do you care?

White Sox Josh
04-29-2005, 11:46 PM
This guy picked us to win the division. Shouldn't he be supporting his pick and saying how good of a pick it is. But I guess Mark Buehrle is overachieving.

balke
04-30-2005, 12:16 AM
Getting on base really helped us tonight.

Soxfest
04-30-2005, 02:28 AM
Updated: April 29, 2005


White Sox living charmed life
By Rob Neyer


Here's why I don't believe the White Sox are the best team in the American League Central: Their pitchers obviously can't keep pitching as well as they have.

The White Sox are 16-6 because 1) their pitching's been fantastic, and 2) they've been exceptionally good in one-run games, going 9-2.

There's not a lot to say about those close games; as I'm sure you know, if you go 9-2 in one-run games you've probably been more than a little lucky

Can they keep it up?

Career 2005 M Buehrle 3.76 3.89 J Contreras 4.85 3.48 F Garcia 3.94 2.83 J Garland 4.68 1.80 O Hernandez 3.96 2.35

Particularly when you consider that if you look past their ERAs, they haven't really pitched all that well. A number of other staffs have struck out and walked roughly the same number of hitters as the White Sox, but without the resulting ERA. They've pitched better than they are and they've been lucky. Reality will eventually bite, and when it does the White Sox will have a middle-of-the-road staff, perhaps a notch or two better.

Can they win that way? Not the way they're hitting. The White Sox currently sport a .311 on-base percentage

Lip Man 1
04-30-2005, 02:34 AM
At the end of the year, I just want the Sox and their fans, one time...just one time in my life, to be able to tell all loud and clear, 'screw all of you, we're number #1.'

Lip

Cubbiesuck13
04-30-2005, 07:48 AM
I don't mind them saying we wont keep it up so much as I mind them not giving the Sox any credit. I haven't read any national articles about how good AJ has been for the club or how great Garland has been. Can't they write about the guys who have made the team go? There are a lot of positives about the Sox and all I read is how they won't keep it up.