View Full Version : Which pitchers will keep it up?
04-26-2005, 04:25 PM
Right now, all of our pitchers, as my signature suggests, have excellent ERAs. But there are some underlying factors and not all ERAs are created equal, even if they are numerically equal. Buehrle and Garland have ridiculous WHIPs right now, .77 and .87 respectively and Garcia's is pretty damn good too at 1.04. On the contrary, Contreras's is at 1.35 and El Duque's is at 1.70. Those do not correlate well with their current ERAs and they portend a rise in the ERAs of these two. Now, that is not to say that these two pitchers cannot maintain their ERAs while bringing down their WHIPs, but one is going to change for these two.
Also, many of our pithchers have BAA totals which are still lower than has been done over the course of a full season recently, so it is not reasonable to expect them to stay where they're at ERA-wise, though it wouldnt be unreasonable to think they still can be very good.
My question is, who will keep up their solid work? I think that Garland, Buehrle and Garcia are locks to keep it up with El Duque and Contreras being question marks, but that Contreras is more likely to keep it up, especially if he pitches like he did against the Royals before he got hurt.
04-26-2005, 04:28 PM
The only two pitchers that scare me right now are El Duque and Contreras, mainly Contreras though. Both pitchers seem to have the Mark Prior syndrome in throwing like 100+ pitches over six innings and only giving up two runs or so. Which to some extent isn't bad because they are keeping us in the ball games, and out bullpen has been pretty damn good so far this year. But they still give me a little worry.
But you know, if they start to suck and we remain in a playoff race I don't doubt at all that Kenmny will not get his arse on the phones to find another quality starting pitcher. And oh yeah, we have one hell of a sixth starter in the works with Brandon McCarthy.
04-26-2005, 04:53 PM
I don't think any of them will maintain these low ERAs over a whole season. Garland and Hernandez are unreal right now. How much longer can Duque wiggle out of trouble? Contreras should finish over 4 and Buehrle would have a good season at about 3. Freddy's should go up a bit closer to his career average (and with a few more night games).
Hopefully the offense will increase too to offset the ERA increase.
04-26-2005, 04:57 PM
I voted Buehrle, Garland and Garcia based on them continuing to pitch well and most of the games they pitch. Not that they'll stay at 1.80 or 2.61, I think it goes without question they won't.
Contreras hasn't shown me he has the smarts to be a great pitcher yet. Decent, maybe. But he has to stop nibbling and trust what I think is the best stuff on the staff. Hernandez is a pro, he should be adequate for a 4 as long as he's healthy. I don't have full faith that he will stay healthy though. We do have a great track record of keeping our players on the field, though.
04-26-2005, 05:04 PM
I voted for Buehrle and Garcia. Freddy's stats seem pretty realistic, I expect his season numbers will be around his stats right now. Buehrle may tail off a little, but an ERA in the low 3.00's is still very good. I didn't vote for Garland. There is no way he will even come close to his 4-0, 1.80 ERA. He still can be pretty good (.3.50 ERA, 16 wins), but his current stats are incredible. I don't know about the two Cubans. They are good numbers right now but they still scare me.
04-26-2005, 06:40 PM
I voted Garland and Buerhle
Garland's got a brand new philosophy. He's gotten the sleepers out of his eyes and he's going after guys. He doesn't try to pitch around ANYONE! He has always been the owner of some great stuff, it's just that he wouldn't trust it enough to attack hitters.
He's giving the other guys a chance to play defense around him, and he's winning.
04-26-2005, 07:04 PM
Buehrle's the "Iron Man" of MLB. He eats innings like there is an table of innings at the buffet table. He dominates his opposition...It looks like some batters have fear when they face him.
Garland does seem to finally be "over the hump," and I'm noticing his young hunger out there. I've heard somewhere that he put in extra hours during the offseason...If that was the case, I'm so thankful for those extra hours.
As long as I'm not attending the game, Garcia should be fine (He's 0-4 when I've gone to see him pitch).
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