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View Full Version : Beane-headed idea for new measures


Frater Perdurabo
04-25-2005, 11:11 AM
It would be nice to have the On Base Percent higher, but the OBP needs to be adjusted when you have a faster team getting on base less often. All Oakland talks about is OBP, but as of 04/25 they only have 2 stolen bases. The Sox have a faster team moving around the bases and they are able to score more runs with a lower OBP. The Sox have scored 86 runs while Oakland has only scored 70 runs. But, if the Sox start hitting, mixed in with the team speed, then there gonna start really running up the score.

Irishsox1's post gave me an idea.

I'd like to find someone with a penchant for math and a lot of spare time (I have neither :redface: ) interested in re-calculating leadoff hitters' OPS by:

1. Counting as a double instances where a player steals second base (rather than the dropped third strike, error, single or walk he used to reach first base);

2. Counting as a triple instances where a player steals third base (rather than the error, single, double, walk, passed ball or wild pitch, or combination thereof, he used to reach second base);

3. To be fair, remove a hit or walk from a player's OPS when a he is thrown out attempting to steal or picked off.

It could be called speed-adjusted OPS. I think we'd see some interesting results.

Also, how about a statistic for the number of wild pitches, errors or passed balls that occur when a particular player is on base? We can call it PODS: Pitcher's Overanxiety Distraction Statistic.
:redneck:bandance::supernana::tongue:

voodoochile
04-25-2005, 11:18 AM
I prefer Totall Bases Generated (TBG):

You get 1 point for every base you cause to happen, including the advances by the men already on base.

A single with the bases empty is worth 1.

A single that sends the current man on first to third is worth 3 (1 for the batter + 2 for the runner).

A walk with the bases loaded is worth 4 (1+1+1+1).

The most you can score in a single at bat is a 10 (grand slam = 4+3+2+1).

Add in a base for all the bases you steal.

Don't count bases that are caused by errors, WP or PB.

Divide by the number of at bats.

santo=dorf
04-25-2005, 11:23 AM
How about counting a fielder's choice or a force out towards a player's OBP % if he reaches base? Sure, he made an out or two, but he is still on base.

Of course that would require the statheads to actually watch the games, not the box scores.

Ol' No. 2
04-25-2005, 11:32 AM
How about counting a fielder's choice or a force out towards a player's OBP % if he reaches base? Sure, he made an out or two, but he is still on base.

Of course that would require the statheads to actually watch the games, not the box scores.You can't count a FC as anything but an out since all the batter did was generate an out and change places with the runner at first. It's not even a productive out.

voodoochile
04-25-2005, 11:34 AM
You can't count a FC as anything but an out since all the batter did was generate an out and change places with the runner at first. It's not even a productive out.

depends on which player is out.

A FC where the runner advances and the batter is out is still productive - basically the same as a sacrifice.

daveeym
04-25-2005, 11:40 AM
depends on which player is out.

A FC where the runner advances and the batter is out is still productive - basically the same as a sacrifice. oooh voodoo, that wouldn't be an FC then. just 6-3, 4-3 or whatever.

Ol' No. 2
04-25-2005, 11:41 AM
depends on which player is out.

A FC where the runner advances and the batter is out is still productive - basically the same as a sacrifice.I don't think that's counted as a FC, is it? The batter has to be safe for it to be a FC. I guess it's possible to have a 1st and 3rd situation, so a FC at second allowing a run to score is still an RBI.

soxtalker
04-25-2005, 11:51 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if Beane's staff has looked at a lot of statistics like the ones you've been discussing. OBP was one of the stats that were touted in Moneyball. However, what Beane really looks for are statistics that translate into value (runs produced or fewer opponents' runs produced) and are undervalued by other teams. That's a moving target. Since OBP has become rather popular in the past few years and probably commands a high premium, he has to dig up other less well known statistics that may indicate value.

MisterB
04-25-2005, 11:53 AM
I don't think that's counted as a FC, is it? The batter has to be safe for it to be a FC. I guess it's possible to have a 1st and 3rd situation, so a FC at second allowing a run to score is still an RBI.

No it isn't. The term literally means the fielder chose to get a baserunner out instead of the batter. It is effectively assumed that the fielder's priority is retiring the batter, not the runner.

jabrch
04-25-2005, 12:00 PM
There is no way to create a single stat to evaluate players. It's just not realistic. You have to judge a player using multiple stats against what is expected of him. TB/AB or some gerrymandering of that number is still ambigous and can not really be used to draw any conclusions when just dumped into a spreadsheet.

Flight #24
04-25-2005, 12:02 PM
Personally, I still favor jabrch's AH/AP ratio (<bleep>-hole to armpits)!!

voodoochile
04-25-2005, 12:35 PM
I don't think that's counted as a FC, is it? The batter has to be safe for it to be a FC. I guess it's possible to have a 1st and 3rd situation, so a FC at second allowing a run to score is still an RBI.

yes, that is runner advances on FC.

Frater Perdurabo
04-25-2005, 02:27 PM
Also, how about a statistic for the number of wild pitches, errors or passed balls that occur when a particular player is on base? We can call it PODS: Pitcher's Overanxiety Distraction Statistic.
:redneck:bandance::supernana::tongue:

Good ideas all, even though some of you completely ignored my tongue-in-cheek PODS stat!