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AJPosguchi
04-25-2005, 12:24 AM
ESPN offerred this on Baseball tonight:

"You need someone with the ability to steal bases, but not just for speed. If you can steal a base, a pitcher will give you a fastball on a 3-2 count, because he doesn't want to walk you. He doesn't want to put you on base, where you can steal. The guys behind you will also see more fastballs if you can steal bases, because they don't want to give you an offspeed pitch to run on."

"You need someone who can handle the bat, and there's no one better at that than Marlins leadoff man Juan Pierre. He can go work deep counts. He's not afraid to bunt with two strikes. He'll always put the ball in play and he'll always give you a tough at-bat."

"You need someone with a great knowledge of game situations. Derek Jeter is a guy who knows when to bunt, who knows when to hit and run, who knows when to give it an inside-out swing and who knows when a home run is needed."

OK, so let's compare these great leadoff men by the ESPN standards to a our lead off man...

Category 1, Stolen Bases:
Pods has 9 SBs with a 90% success rate,
Jeter has 2 SBs with a 50% success rate,
Pierre has 2 SBs with a 40% success rate.
Enough said.

Category 2, Pitches per AB and Contact [(Hits + Ground Outs + Fly Outs)/ABs-BB]
Jeter leads in PPAB with 4.09, Pierre with 3.70, and Pods with 3.57
Pierre leads in Contact with .928, Pods with .887, Jeter with .803 (10 SOs)
Pods fares OK here, but then again, the job of the leadoff is to get on base IMO - Jeter .478 OBP, Pods .383 OBP, and Pierre .349 OBP. The experts somehow failed to mention this category; what good is a tough at bat if you don't get on base (Pierre).

Category 3, Knowledge of the game
I have no statistic to compare these guys on this one. No doubt, Jeter is a smart player. Tough to argue.

The key is the intangible mentioned in the first quote... the ability to make the pitcher uncomfortable when he gets on base. This is what Pods has excelled at this year. They know his capability, he messes with the opposiing pitcher's mind, they forget about Iguchi, and POOF, Gooch has a .305 average in a league he is still learning.

Just another example of the experts missing the mark with a true lack of research and analysis.

BRDSR
04-25-2005, 12:48 AM
Just another example of the experts missing the mark with a true lack of research and analysis.

This is definitely not the most grevious of ESPNs sins it the category of poor research and analysis. They've done much better than missing the intangibles of the leadoff man in baseball

elrod
04-25-2005, 01:01 AM
Actually, the first BBTN comment about steals relates to your point about distracting the pitcher.

SoxxoS
04-25-2005, 01:04 AM
Gary Miller already let us know that Presednik sucks.

Frater Perdurabo
04-25-2005, 10:00 AM
A few more things to consider:

1. If Iguchi still is learning the American League and U.S. baseball, imagine what he might be able to do when he does "figure it out."

2. Think about the top of the Sox lineup when Frank Thomas returns. Podsednik will see more good pitches, making it more likely he can get down a good bunt or slap a single between the infielders. Pods will get on base more, and distract opposing pitchers more. Iguchi will see more mistakes and more fastballs. His average and OBP will increase. Frank often will bat with no outs and runners at the corners (often in the first inning), and will see more fastballs. Even a double play grounder will score Podsednik. But Frank will be just as likely to take a walk, smash a double or crush a three-run homer. Late in the game with the score tied, Frank also can go for the RBI sac fly.

3. Under these situations, Everett and Konerko will come to bat much more frequently with runners on base. Will some of these at bats end in GIDPs, particularly when Frank just walked? Sure. But we'll also see lots more two- and three-run homers instead of solo shots.

4. There will be a significant number of games when the Sox score bunches of runs in the first inning, putting pressure on the opposing team's pitchers and hitters while simultaneously allowing Sox pitchers to relax and just throw strikes. This will in turn will make the Sox hitters and pitchers even better.

samram
04-25-2005, 10:06 AM
A few more things to consider:

1. If Iguchi still is learning the American League and U.S. baseball, imagine what he might be able to do when he does "figure it out."

2. Think about the top of the Sox lineup when Frank Thomas returns. Podsednik will see more good pitches, making it more likely he can get down a good bunt or slap a single between the infielders. Pods will get on base more, and distract opposing pitchers more. Iguchi will see more mistakes and more fastballs. His average and OBP will increase. Frank often will bat with no outs and runners at the corners (often in the first inning), and will see more fastballs. Even a double play grounder will score Podsednik. But Frank will be just as likely to take a walk, smash a double or crush a three-run homer. Late in the game with the score tied, Frank also can go for the RBI sac fly.

3. Under these situations, Everett and Konerko will come to bat much more frequently with runners on base. Will some of these at bats end in GIDPs, particularly when Frank just walked? Sure. But we'll also see lots more two- and three-run homers instead of solo shots.

4. There will be a significant number of games when the Sox score bunches of runs in the first inning, putting pressure on the opposing team's pitchers and hitters while simultaneously allowing Sox pitchers to relax and just throw strikes. This will in turn will make the Sox hitters and pitchers even better.

Great post, Frater. Makes me feel good on a cold Monday morning.:smile:

ChiSoxBobette
04-25-2005, 11:01 AM
ESPN offerred this on Baseball tonight:

"You need someone with the ability to steal bases, but not just for speed. If you can steal a base, a pitcher will give you a fastball on a 3-2 count, because he doesn't want to walk you. He doesn't want to put you on base, where you can steal. The guys behind you will also see more fastballs if you can steal bases, because they don't want to give you an offspeed pitch to run on."

"You need someone who can handle the bat, and there's no one better at that than Marlins leadoff man Juan Pierre. He can go work deep counts. He's not afraid to bunt with two strikes. He'll always put the ball in play and he'll always give you a tough at-bat."

"You need someone with a great knowledge of game situations. Derek Jeter is a guy who knows when to bunt, who knows when to hit and run, who knows when to give it an inside-out swing and who knows when a home run is needed."

OK, so let's compare these great leadoff men by the ESPN standards to a our lead off man...

Category 1, Stolen Bases:
Pods has 9 SBs with a 90% success rate,
Jeter has 2 SBs with a 50% success rate,
Pierre has 2 SBs with a 40% success rate.
Enough said.

Category 2, Pitches per AB and Contact [(Hits + Ground Outs + Fly Outs)/ABs-BB]
Jeter leads in PPAB with 4.09, Pierre with 3.70, and Pods with 3.57
Pierre leads in Contact with .928, Pods with .887, Jeter with .803 (10 SOs)
Pods fares OK here, but then again, the job of the leadoff is to get on base IMO - Jeter .478 OBP, Pods .383 OBP, and Pierre .349 OBP. The experts somehow failed to mention this category; what good is a tough at bat if you don't get on base (Pierre).

Category 3, Knowledge of the game
I have no statistic to compare these guys on this one. No doubt, Jeter is a smart player. Tough to argue.

The key is the intangible mentioned in the first quote... the ability to make the pitcher uncomfortable when he gets on base. This is what Pods has excelled at this year. They know his capability, he messes with the opposiing pitcher's mind, they forget about Iguchi, and POOF, Gooch has a .305 average in a league he is still learning.

Just another example of the experts missing the mark with a true lack of research and analysis.

They're not missing the mark they're just choosing to ignore our team.
ESPN Sucks! They still refer to Kerry Woods as the kid as if he's just come up from the minors.

the gooch
04-25-2005, 02:50 PM
the season is young so here are '04 ppab for some leadoff guys:
durham 4.69 <-- (who else misses ray ray?)
damon 4.67
willie 4.61 <-- (first full year)
b.roberts 4.55
pods 4.44 <-- (4.52 in '03)
stewart 4.44
catalanotto 4.23
lofton 4.10
crisp 4.09
kotsay 4.04
jeter 3.97
soriano 3.95
pierre 3.89
ichiro 3.80
rollins 3.78
patterson 3.76
crawford 3.75
big frank 5.35

i like that we have guys that will take a lot of pitches. heres to frustrating the opposition!

NardiWasHere
04-25-2005, 07:00 PM
Just another example of the experts missing the mark with a true lack of research and analysis.

I don't think that this is an example of bad analysis, they just picked guys who helped demonstrate their point. Just because ESPN doesnt mention the Sox in every article doesn't mean they are biased. I agree that the Sox don't grab as much attention, but it seems like WSI is going a little overboard with the "no respect" thing. Steve Phillips picking us 4th with 72 wins is disrespect. ESPN talking about Jeter and Pierre is just another article.

samram
04-25-2005, 07:14 PM
the season is young so here are '04 ppab for some leadoff guys:
durham 4.69 <-- (who else misses ray ray?)


I don't. I read a week or so ago that scouts have really noticed Durham slowing down and he's just not the same player he was 2 or 3 years ago. Plus, for this season, I'd take Iguchi in a heartbeat.

kevingrt
04-25-2005, 08:09 PM
I don't. I read a week or so ago that scouts have really noticed Durham slowing down and he's just not the same player he was 2 or 3 years ago. Plus, for this season, I'd take Iguchi in a heartbeat.

Ray Durham has been slowing down all his life. I remember when we could probably get a good 30 or so stolen bases from him. Now he is just a very good contact hitter that can hit for some good average. You sitll have to love Ray Ray though. I hope he comes back to Chicago sometime soon in any uniform. I remember when he came back like two years ago with the Giants and got a nice ovation. That was when Barry Bonds also hit the longest HR I have ever seen at the Cell, so maybe Ray Ray should come back in a different uniform.

crazyozzie02
04-25-2005, 08:10 PM
I only have one word to say to all of this



PODZILLA