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MeanFish
04-21-2005, 08:03 PM
While it may be only April, the season has reached roughly the 10% mark.

We're currently 12-4. If you had to guess, how would you imagine we'll fare in our NEXT 16 games? (Ok, we'll go 18 so that we don't exclude the second two games in TB).

Next 18 games schedule:
3 @ KC
3 @ Oakland
3 vs. Detroit
3 vs. KC
3 @ Toronto
3 @ TB.

Edit: My brain farted and the > should be a < on choice 4 :)

Malgar 12
04-21-2005, 08:06 PM
11-7

fusillirob1983
04-21-2005, 08:48 PM
Realistically, they're going to lose a few games at some point, but it's hard to say they'll slide much in that stretch. However, we haven't played well at Oakland in recent history. I would hope we would lose no more than 4-6 of those games, with 2 of the losses against the A's.

I know some people might say my prediction is crazy going 14-4 or 12-6 and keeping up this great pace, but there's too many teams on that list where I think, "we must take advantage of this team".

MeanFish
04-21-2005, 09:01 PM
Realistically, they're going to lose a few games at some point, but it's hard to say they'll slide much in that stretch. However, we haven't played well at Oakland in recent history. I would hope we would lose no more than 4-6 of those games, with 2 of the losses against the A's.

I know some people might say my prediction is crazy going 14-4 or 12-6 and keeping up this great pace, but there's too many teams on that list where I think, "we must take advantage of this team".

What's intriguing about that list is that it doesn't impress me as particularly easy. Tampa Bay isn't a team to overlook, and you know they're going to play us tough. Will Toronto keep up their handiwork? Will we run into Halladay and Chacin? Is Detroit going to come at us with something tough or are they really that bad? KC can scrap, but the question is will they?

And, of course, the dreaded west coast test against the A's. I have a feeling we'll get up for that one and really show something.

However, I think we'll go about 11-7 in that period, which is nothing to sneer at. Toronto and TB will probably be tougher than they look.

eastchicagosoxfan
04-21-2005, 09:04 PM
Taking two from Detriot is a great sign. The Sox finally beat a team that they should beat.....the victories were the results of not beating yourself, and realizing that the team still had to play hard to win those games. I always felt that previous Sox teams under Manuel expected the opposition to crumble before them due to overwhelming talent. Manuel's attitude of, " Show up and play your game and expect to win because you played your game " didn't respect the opponent. The Sox expected Detroit to roll over. They couldn't understand why the Tigers would choose to stand up to such a juggernaught. Anyway, the Sox are off to a great start. But no one wins 120 games. The Sox could go 12-4, but 10-6 is more realistic. That's still a pace to win 110 games. And I don't expect the Sox to win 110 either.

schmitty9800
04-21-2005, 09:06 PM
I was thinking .500 (and voted that way) until I saw the schedule. It looks kind of tricky but I don't think it'll be too much of a problem. It'll depend on the KC games, winning those series is a must.

Even with a sweep by Oakland I don't think it'll be any worse than 10-8.

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 09:23 PM
I hate stuff like this because I don't ever want to pencil in losses in advance. I think we can win every series on that list and I believe we're the better team in each of them. Will we win every one of those series? Probably not, I mean how often does a team go to the middle of May before losing a series?

I just hope that they start hitting better, especially Rowand and Uribe. Hopefully we get a stretch where we can pound the ball consistently and give the rotation a little break from the pressure of one-run games. Continue clutch hitting, good bunting, smart hitting (sac flies, opposite field, etc) and good defense (throwing to the right guy, turning DPs). All of these things they've done very well so far, so basically we just need some firepower to add to the mix.

And more importantly, I hope that at the end of this stretch we're still a few games ahead of the Twins, if not more. They play DET, KC, LAA, CLE, TB, BAL. It's a pretty similar stretch in terms of difficulty, or at least it doesn't stand out as an easy or difficult ride for either team. I think if anything we have a slight advantage, but like I've said before, we have to beat up on the rest of the league and capitalize on the KCs and TBs of the world, because I highly doubt we'll win 4 out of every 5 we play against Minnesota.

MeanFish
04-21-2005, 09:37 PM
I hate stuff like this because I don't ever want to pencil in losses in advance. I think we can win every series on that list and I believe we're the better team in each of them. Will we win every one of those series? Probably not, I mean how often does a team go to the middle of May before losing a series?

I just hope that they start hitting better, especially Rowand and Uribe. Hopefully we get a stretch where we can pound the ball consistently and give the rotation a little break from the pressure of one-run games. Continue clutch hitting, good bunting, smart hitting (sac flies, opposite field, etc) and good defense (throwing to the right guy, turning DPs). All of these things they've done very well so far, so basically we just need some firepower to add to the mix.

And more importantly, I hope that at the end of this stretch we're still a few games ahead of the Twins, if not more. They play DET, KC, LAA, CLE, TB, BAL. It's a pretty similar stretch in terms of difficulty, or at least it doesn't stand out as an easy or difficult ride for either team. I think if anything we have a slight advantage, but like I've said before, we have to beat up on the rest of the league and capitalize on the KCs and TBs of the world, because I highly doubt we'll win 4 out of every 5 we play against Minnesota.

Perhaps I'm naive, but if anyone is going to beat us, it's going to be us and not Minnesota. Especially after watching today's game. We won with smallball today (read: we're not a smallball team though) and proved the difference between this year and years past. For evidence of our team's balance, just look at the last two games. Yesterday we just creamed the ball, and today we executed when we had to and made less mistakes than the other team. For Minnesota to beat us, we're going to have to stop executing on that level, and I don't think we'll do it. Not often, anyway.

We'll start hitting more at some point soon, I'm sure. When Juan's hot he's really hot, and when he's not he's REALLY not. As for Aaron, slow starts are no stranger to him. He'll get it going. Our offense is improving a little every week.

The major point of this thread was to demonstrate that even if we fall off some, we'll still have a pretty darned good record.

Ol' No. 2
04-21-2005, 09:43 PM
I hate stuff like this because I don't ever want to pencil in losses in advance. I think we can win every series on that list and I believe we're the better team in each of them. Will we win every one of those series? Probably not, I mean how often does a team go to the middle of May before losing a series?

I just hope that they start hitting better, especially Rowand and Uribe. Hopefully we get a stretch where we can pound the ball consistently and give the rotation a little break from the pressure of one-run games. Continue clutch hitting, good bunting, smart hitting (sac flies, opposite field, etc) and good defense (throwing to the right guy, turning DPs). All of these things they've done very well so far, so basically we just need some firepower to add to the mix.

And more importantly, I hope that at the end of this stretch we're still a few games ahead of the Twins, if not more. They play DET, KC, LAA, CLE, TB, BAL. It's a pretty similar stretch in terms of difficulty, or at least it doesn't stand out as an easy or difficult ride for either team. I think if anything we have a slight advantage, but like I've said before, we have to beat up on the rest of the league and capitalize on the KCs and TBs of the world, because I highly doubt we'll win 4 out of every 5 we play against Minnesota.I feel kind of the same way. So the way I approach it is how many wins would it take me to feel good about that stretch. There's not one of those series that I wouldn't be disappointed at losing except maybe Oakland and Toronto. If you figure 8-4 for KC, DET and TB, then I'd want to at least split the 6 with OAK and TOR. So I guess I'd settle for 11-7, at minimum. A sweep or two is defintely possible, so 13-5 would make me :smile:. Better than that and I'd be delerious.

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 09:52 PM
Perhaps I'm naive, but if anyone is going to beat us, it's going to be us and not Minnesota. Especially after watching today's game. We won with smallball today (read: we're not a smallball team though) and proved the difference between this year and years past. For evidence of our team's balance, just look at the last two games. Yesterday we just creamed the ball, and today we executed when we had to and made less mistakes than the other team. For Minnesota to beat us, we're going to have to stop executing on that level, and I don't think we'll do it. Not often, anyway.

We'll start hitting more at some point soon, I'm sure. When Juan's hot he's really hot, and when he's not he's REALLY not. As for Aaron, slow starts are no stranger to him. He'll get it going. Our offense is improving a little every week.

The major point of this thread was to demonstrate that even if we fall off some, we'll still have a pretty darned good record.

My bad, I didn't mean to be insulting with my opening line, I just realized I didn't word it well.

This team's done everything right and well so far except for all the low averages. I agree with you on Juan and Aaron, that about sums them up, my hope though is that they hit their respective strides soon so we're not dying for Frank to come back. They're just above automatic out territory right now, while everyone else seems to be slowly coming into form, so I'm focusing on them to get it going. I'm not overlooking Dye, either, but I see him as replaceable if he were to continue at this pace (when Thomas comes back, put Everett in right). And he's proven himself, as long as he's healthy he should hit. Rowand and Uribe aren't as replaceable and both had breakout years last year, so they still have something to prove.

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 09:56 PM
I feel kind of the same way. So the way I approach it is how many wins would it take me to feel good about that stretch. There's not one of those series that I wouldn't be disappointed at losing except maybe Oakland and Toronto. If you figure 8-4 for KC, DET and TB, then I'd want to at least split the 6 with OAK and TOR. So I guess I'd settle for 11-7, at minimum. A sweep or two is defintely possible, so 13-5 would make me :smile:. Better than that and I'd be delerious.

Yeah I guess if I could pick numbers, 11-7 would be acceptable. That would make us 23-11 overall, which is outstanding. Even if we went 10-8, we'd be ten games over .500. That's not bad for mid May. Usually we're fighting to be 5 over in July.

MeanFish
04-21-2005, 10:17 PM
My bad, I didn't mean to be insulting with my opening line, I just realized I didn't word it well.

This team's done everything right and well so far except for all the low averages. I agree with you on Juan and Aaron, that about sums them up, my hope though is that they hit their respective strides soon so we're not dying for Frank to come back. They're just above automatic out territory right now, while everyone else seems to be slowly coming into form, so I'm focusing on them to get it going. I'm not overlooking Dye, either, but I see him as replaceable if he were to continue at this pace (when Thomas comes back, put Everett in right). And he's proven himself, as long as he's healthy he should hit. Rowand and Uribe aren't as replaceable and both had breakout years last year, so they still have something to prove.

Hehe, don't worry about it. :cool: As a WSI poster I am fairly used to people disagreeing with each other and/or me. Just comes with the territory. :)

I'd venture to say that Dye turning it up and hitting well is about a 50/50. Over the last few years, he's had some Konerko-esque slumps and streaks. He's probably the most likely of the three current lineup holes to not produce.

owensmouth
04-21-2005, 10:19 PM
Kansas City - We've had problems in KC when one of their young arms comes out and shuts us down. I can remember a couple of ugly losses to them last year, but I expect a sweep.

Oakland - The land of lost games. Joe Crede's least favorite place to try and catch a foul popup. But we'll probably have Garland, then Mark and then Freddie. We'll still be hot, so two out of three.

Detroit - Two out of three in Chicago.

Kansas City - No change, sweep.

Toronto - Two out of three.

Tampa Bay - When was the last time we took a series in the fruit bowl? We generally lose two out of three. I'll hold my breath and say we improve, two out of three.

The Detroit series gets us out of April and into May, the land of gloom for Konerko. Will he revert due to a mental hangup, or is he past that. Look for some cooling off. Aaron and (gulp) Uribe will heat up.

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 10:23 PM
Kansas City - We've had problems in KC when one of their young arms comes out and shuts us down. I can remember a couple of ugly losses to them last year, but I expect a sweep.

Oakland - The land of lost games. Joe Crede's least favorite place to try and catch a foul popup. But we'll probably have Garland, then Mark and then Freddie. We'll still be hot, so two out of three.

Detroit - Two out of three in Chicago.

Kansas City - No change, sweep.

Toronto - Two out of three.

Tampa Bay - When was the last time we took a series in the fruit bowl? We generally lose two out of three. I'll hold my breath and say we improve, two out of three.

The Detroit series gets us out of April and into May, the land of gloom for Konerko. Will he revert due to a mental hangup, or is he past that. Look for some cooling off. Aaron and (gulp) Uribe will heat up.

I'm really gunning for a series win in Oakland just for mojo's sake. We have to turn that whole thing around, period. Especially now that we don't have to face Mulder or Hudson.

MeanFish
04-21-2005, 10:25 PM
Kansas City - We've had problems in KC when one of their young arms comes out and shuts us down. I can remember a couple of ugly losses to them last year, but I expect a sweep.

Oakland - The land of lost games. Joe Crede's least favorite place to try and catch a foul popup. But we'll probably have Garland, then Mark and then Freddie. We'll still be hot, so two out of three.

Detroit - Two out of three in Chicago.

Kansas City - No change, sweep.

Toronto - Two out of three.

Tampa Bay - When was the last time we took a series in the fruit bowl? We generally lose two out of three. I'll hold my breath and say we improve, two out of three.

The Detroit series gets us out of April and into May, the land of gloom for Konerko. Will he revert due to a mental hangup, or is he past that. Look for some cooling off. Aaron and (gulp) Uribe will heat up.

Cooling off and ending up with a 26-8 record sounds good to me!

:gulp:

owensmouth
04-21-2005, 10:29 PM
Cooling off and ending up with a 26-8 record sounds good to me!

:gulp:I was referring to Paulie and his annual droop in May

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 10:34 PM
Cooling off and ending up with a 26-8 record sounds good to me!

:gulp:

Ha, I didn't realize that's a 14-4 run he put up there. So we haven't seen the best of times yet? :D:

MeanFish
04-21-2005, 10:35 PM
I was referring to Paulie and his annual droop in May

Ahhh, okay.

I'm doing this ---> :gulp:<--- so I might be a little nonsensical at times.

jehosaphat
04-21-2005, 10:37 PM
Although there is a knee jerk temptation to not make too much of the fast start, this thread shows that one should be careful to not make too little of it either. To state the obvious, 12-4 is 8 games over .500 and if we play the remainder of the season just 8 games over .500, then our record would be 89-73 which may be enough to win the division. Of course, I hope for better, but if we were sitting at 6-10 then 89 wins would seem like a long way off. Forgive me, but I can't help myself - I'm getting giddy. The starting 5 looks very, very good, and if they can hold up and we can continue to get just a little offense, I think it's going to be a memorable summer. Win while you can, Sox. Enjoy it while you can, Sox fans. :supernana:

batmanZoSo
04-21-2005, 10:40 PM
Although there is a knee jerk temptation to not make too much of the fast start, this thread shows that one should be careful to not make too little of it either. To state the obvious, 12-4 is 8 games over .500 and if we play the remainder of the season just 8 games over .500, then our record would be 89-73 which may be enough to win the division. Of course, I hope for better, but if we were sitting at 6-10 then 89 wins would seem like a long way off. Forgive me, but I can't help myself - I'm getting giddy. The starting 5 looks very, very good, and if they can hold up and we can continue to get just a little offense, I think it's going to be a memorable summer. Win while you can, Sox. Enjoy it while you can, Sox fans. :supernana:

Welcome aboard....:cool:

JB98
04-21-2005, 11:48 PM
I'm going to go with 11-7 in our next 18, which would put us at 23-11.

Two out of three at KC
One out of three at Oak
Two out of three vs. Det
Sweep vs. KC
One out of three at Tor
Two out of three at TB

ode to veeck
04-22-2005, 12:00 AM
West, White Sock, and I would eat our tix and stay home next week, if we'd be guaranteed the Sox would finally win a few in Oakland.

jordan23ventura
04-22-2005, 01:07 AM
Ha, I didn't realize that's a 14-4 run he put up there. So we haven't seen the best of times yet? :D:

Obviously, not even Miss Cleo can predict the future and anything can happen, but if it were me I would have said we would have been more likely to go 14-4 playing 6 games against KC, 3 vs. Oakland, 3 vs. Detriot, 3 vs. TB, and 3 vs. Toronto than going 12-4 against the Twins, Cleveland, Detroit, and Seattle. But, we did that. So I have to say a 14-4 run is VERY possible, especially if we start out by sweeping KC. I'd feel very good going into Oakland riding a seven game winning streak.

dcb33
04-22-2005, 01:43 AM
Obviously, not even Miss Cleo can predict the future and anything can happen, but if it were me I would have said we would have been more likely to go 14-4 playing 6 games against KC, 3 vs. Oakland, 3 vs. Detriot, 3 vs. TB, and 3 vs. Toronto than going 12-4 against the Twins, Cleveland, Detroit, and Seattle. But, we did that. So I have to say a 14-4 run is VERY possible, especially if we start out by sweeping KC. I'd feel very good going into Oakland riding a seven game winning streak.

I agree. We need as many of these games as possible becuase if this team is for real, it really has no business losing to any of these teams (except maybe Oakland on the road). It's the fruitcake portion of the schedule and if anyone here doesn't think so, look at our August. Detroit, KC, and TB all suck, and Toronto has started to come back down to earth. It's time for this team to go for the jugular and beat the crap out of these guys.
At 12-4, we've put ourselves in a position to be untouchable for the rest of the season, and a mark of 14-4 would put us at 26-8. If we played a little better than .500 ball the rest of the way after that the division, if not the league, would be ours. It's time to go for the kill now because divisions and pennants can be won in April and May. The 84 Tigers are proof of that.

jordan23ventura
04-22-2005, 01:57 AM
I agree. We need as many of these games as possible becuase if this team is for real, it really has no business losing to any of these teams (except maybe Oakland on the road). It's the fruitcake portion of the schedule and if you don't think so, look at our August. Detroit, KC, and TB all suck, and Toronto has started to come back down to earth. It's time for this team to go for the jugular and beat the crap out of these guys.
At 12-4, we've put ourselves in a position to be untouchable for the rest of the season, and a mark of 14-4 would put us at 28-8. If we played a little better than .500 ball the rest of the way after that the division, if not the league, would be ours. It's time to go for the kill now because divisions and pennants can be won in April and May. The 84 Tigers are proof of that.

I agree that we need to do some major damage early, especially while the Twins are suffering a little. If you look at the schedule, in May we play 6 games against TEX, 6 against LAAA, but the rest of the games are against BAL, TB, DET, KC, and the Flubs which I think we could definately come out ahead on. The only competition I really see in June is 3 games against LA, but then we have a pretty tough July and August is going to suck. September sees 3 games against LAAA and 7 against the Twins, but the rest of the teams we play aren't going to be contending, IMO, but will look to spoil.

So, I think a strong April, May and June, and a decent Sept can clinch the playoffs for the Sox. I'm glad we play top teams in July and August because that's usually when this team gets going on all cyllinders.

BigEdWalsh
04-22-2005, 03:07 AM
I think we'll be 12-6 which would put us at 24-10. Oooooh, I like the way that looks. 24-10!! Woo hoo!