PDA

View Full Version : Sox Projections from Baseballnotebook.com


Foulke29
04-04-2005, 10:25 AM
You have to love this:

American League Central

1. Chicago 84.2
2. Cleveland 81.1
3. Minnesota 77.8
4. Detroit 75.3
5. Kansas City 68.9

I've moved Cleveland ahead of Minnesota now, partially because I see the Minnesota pitching staff as being more suspect than I thought before spring training and also because I like the way Cleveland is shaping up its offense, despite only expecting about a half season's worth of healthy production from Juan Gonzalez. Detroit continues to rise ever so slowly in my rankings.

Linky: http://www.baseballnotebook.com/essay.asp?esource=e_040305.asp&topt=Opening%20Day%20Commentary

ondafarm
04-04-2005, 10:50 AM
Yes, but the article also has the Cubs defeating the Cards in a tie breaker. I question this picker as much as I do SI picking the White Sox as the 17th best major league team.

Foulke29
04-04-2005, 11:06 AM
Yes, but the article also has the Cubs defeating the Cards in a tie breaker. I question this picker as much as I do SI picking the White Sox as the 17th best major league team.

Why?

Why would you question him? He has a very successful past of picking accurately not only standings but also individuals' performances. I have been reading him now for three years, and I have won 5 fantasy baseball leagues going off of his numbers as a reference for who I draft.

What's so weird about picking the Cubs - other than the fact that we all hate the Cubs, their team is actually set-up for success.

Garciapara is in a contract year and should perform.
Patterson is closer to the magic number of 27 years old and could bust for a 30/30 season.
Maddux looks better this year than he has in four years.
Prior certainly won't miss as many games as he did last year.

And honestly, the Cardinals are not the same team they were last year..

The division in general is weaker - due to Houston losing Kent and Beltran.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Cubs could win their division.

MeanFish
04-04-2005, 11:13 AM
Why?

Why would you question him? He has a very successful past of picking accurately not only standings but also individuals' performances. I have been reading him now for three years, and I have won 5 fantasy baseball leagues going off of his numbers as a reference for who I draft.

What's so weird about picking the Cubs - other than the fact that we all hate the Cubs, their team is actually set-up for success.

Garciapara is in a contract year and should perform.
Patterson is closer to the magic number of 27 years old and could bust for a 30/30 season.
Maddux looks better this year than he has in four years.
Prior certainly won't miss as many games as he did last year.

And honestly, the Cardinals are not the same team they were last year..

The division in general is weaker - due to Houston losing Kent and Beltran.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Cubs could win their division.

Ah, but the Cardinals ARE the same team they were last year. If healthy, Mark Grudzielanek is a good improvement on Tony Womack and David Eckstein is only slightly worse than Edgar Renteria who wasn't even that great last year. In the bullpen, they've lost Steve Kline and Kiko Calero however they've gained Mark Mulder at the head of the rotation, who should perform well in the NL and they still have Tavarez King and Isringhausen in the bullpen, which is a more-than-ample 3-headed monster.

The Cubs could win, but it's going to be a tough road for them.

Foulke29
04-04-2005, 01:24 PM
Ah, but the Cardinals ARE the same team they were last year. If healthy, Mark Grudzielanek is a good improvement on Tony Womack and David Eckstein is only slightly worse than Edgar Renteria who wasn't even that great last year. In the bullpen, they've lost Steve Kline and Kiko Calero however they've gained Mark Mulder at the head of the rotation, who should perform well in the NL and they still have Tavarez King and Isringhausen in the bullpen, which is a more-than-ample 3-headed monster.

The Cubs could win, but it's going to be a tough road for them.

All valid, but keep in mind they'll still need a Chris Carpenter person to over perform.

A. Cavatica
04-04-2005, 02:17 PM
...David Eckstein is only slightly worse than Edgar Renteria

:?:

MeanFish
04-04-2005, 02:35 PM
2004 Statistics:

Eckstein: .276 ba, 2 hr, 15 sb, .339 obp
Renteria: .287 ba, 10 hr, 17 sb, .327 obp.

Career Statistics:

Eckstein: .278 ba, .347 obp
Renteria: .289 ba, .345 obp

And similar with the glove.

chaz171
04-04-2005, 02:39 PM
All valid, but keep in mind they'll still need a Chris Carpenter person to over perform.


how about Mark Mulder?

balke
04-04-2005, 02:44 PM
I hate the Tigers starting rotation, but with that lineup, perhaps they are flying under the radar as well. They just need pitching mediocrity if they are going to score 6 every night. Look what they are doing right now 6-1 bases loaded bottom of the 5th.

Imagine if we had 5 decent 5.00 ERA starters all season, and that lineup all season that we started with... we may have ran into the playoffs. This will be a 4 team race I believe.

MeanFish
04-04-2005, 02:49 PM
how about Mark Mulder?

The thing with Mulder is that he's basically replacing Woody Williams. He'll win more games than Williams did for sure, but it's not the same as having both of them. He should give the bottom of the rotation a little bit of room for slight regression.

chaz171
04-04-2005, 02:54 PM
There was a consitant degression of all teams in this division. StL decreased the least.

Houston,
no Berkman
No Beltan

Cub
No LF
No Rf
No Mary Prior
no Carrie Wood
No Closer.

Stl at least picked up eckstein and Mulder to help.

The cub got Jerry Hairpin Jr.

the Astros resigned an ancient Roger (arm cream) Clemens who will not have his arm cream this year.

I still see STL on top of a weakening division.

And I don't want to hear any crap about the reds...they ain'd going nowhere.

PAPChiSox729
04-04-2005, 07:59 PM
I hate to say it, but I think that 78 wins for the Twinkies is a little too low. They have a solid staff, a great bullpen, and their offense is ok. I would think that the Twins will be in contention all year. It will be a good race, so I think they will end up with around 86 wins.

SoxxoS
04-04-2005, 08:03 PM
2004 Statistics:

Eckstein: .276 ba, 2 hr, 15 sb, .339 obp
Renteria: .287 ba, 10 hr, 17 sb, .327 obp.

Career Statistics:

Eckstein: .278 ba, .347 obp
Renteria: .289 ba, .345 obp

And similar with the glove.

Whoa...arguing the batting similarities I am somewhat with you...but Renteria is flat money with the glove, and a top 3 defensive SS in MLB, IMO. Ekstein doesn't crack the top 12-15.

Tragg
04-04-2005, 08:34 PM
Why?

Why would you question him? He has a very successful past of picking accurately not only standings but also individuals' performances. I have been reading him now for three years, and I have won 5 fantasy baseball leagues going off of his numbers as a reference for who I draft.

What's so weird about picking the Cubs - other than the fact that we all hate the Cubs, their team is actually set-up for success.

Garciapara is in a contract year and should perform.
Patterson is closer to the magic number of 27 years old and could bust for a 30/30 season.
Maddux looks better this year than he has in four years.
Prior certainly won't miss as many games as he did last year.

And honestly, the Cardinals are not the same team they were last year..

The division in general is weaker - due to Houston losing Kent and Beltran.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Cubs could win their division.
I do think the cardinals are weaker; weaker pen, weaker infield, maybe better starting staff but they had some years that are unlikely to be repeated. Their pitching wasn't very good last year, and that Boston would kill them was not hard to predict.

Where did he pick the cubs last year?
The Cubs lost their top RBI man, a productive pitcher, one of the great players of the last 10 years (if you listen to the national media), and had and still have a terrible bullpen; now they should be better? Maybe, but I doubt it. If they win that division they win it winning 89 or so games, which certainly is possible.

I almost feel sorry for Sammy. The entire media establishment, especially in Chicago annoits him as Hank Aaron Jr. Suddenly, when he has an off season, he's worthless. His clubhouse antics can't be the reason as he's been a self-centered dick since the beginning.

Foulke29
04-05-2005, 01:17 AM
how about Mark Mulder?

Mulder is expected to perform - in the way that Matt Morris was expected to perform last year. Now, they have:

Mulder
Suppan
Marquis
Carpenter
Morris

It's a good pitching staff, but if Prior and Wood stay healthy (and that's big if), the staff of:

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux
Insert name here

is pretty darn good... That's all I'm sayin.

Foulke29
04-05-2005, 01:32 AM
I hate to say it, but I think that 78 wins for the Twinkies is a little too low. They have a solid staff, a great bullpen, and their offense is ok. I would think that the Twins will be in contention all year. It will be a good race, so I think they will end up with around 86 wins.

I don't think you're right about this. I think the Twins have changed their style too much. They're not the defense and small ball team they've been in the past. They're moving to the power formula which is prone to slumps - as we all know too well.

Furthermore, Santana and Nathan are the only pitchers worth their weight on that team. We don't know if Santana can handle the workload that he had last year - this year. Remember this guy spent alot of time in the bullpen the two seasons previous to last, and Nathan really only has the one year under his belt.

Once you get passed those two you have:

Radke
Lohse
Mays
Silva

I just don't believe this is a staff that will have their defense be able to bail them out of the mistakes the consistantly made last year.

As for a team that can hit... The Twins - as we know have been way too lucky in the past. In the last 3 years their Runs Scored to Runs Allowed have never matched their record. They've won way more games than they 'should have.' Read some Rob Neyer on this subject.

Anyway, the reason they've been so 'lucky' is because speed, defense and small ball give better odds to win those close games. It essentially gives them better luck. That said, they don't have Mienkavalmelalyawhatsmyname or Koskie any longer. Castro/Cuddyer and Bartlett aren't going to give the team the D that they've had in the past - imo.

Neyer's article today picked the Sox to win the division based on 'gut instinct.' That and he thinks Contreras will put it together this season - but I have to go back to the Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed...

Sure the Sox will score much less runs this year, but I have a feeling the D is going to help more this year and they'll score the runs they're supposed to - which will instill confidence and hopefully curb slumps...

FightingBillini
04-05-2005, 02:16 AM
Mulder is expected to perform - in the way that Matt Morris was expected to perform last year. Now, they have:

Mulder
Suppan
Marquis
Carpenter
Morris

It's a good pitching staff, but if Prior and Wood stay healthy (and that's big if), the staff of:

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux
Insert name here

is pretty darn good... That's all I'm sayin.

And the best pitching staff in that division (and in all of baseball) still resides deep in the heart of Texas.

santo=dorf
04-05-2005, 02:21 AM
:?:

Renteria is so overrated.

crector
04-05-2005, 06:05 AM
There was a consitant degression of all teams in this division. StL decreased the least.

Houston,
no Berkman
No Beltan

Cub
No LF
No Rf
No Mary Prior
no Carrie Wood
No Closer.

Stl at least picked up eckstein and Mulder to help.

The cub got Jerry Hairpin Jr.

the Astros resigned an ancient Roger (arm cream) Clemens who will not have his arm cream this year.

I still see STL on top of a weakening division.

And I don't want to hear any crap about the reds...they ain'd going nowhere.


Wrong. Both the Reds and Brewers are significantly better this year than last. The Reds bullpen and starting rotation is much better now than in 2004 and they still have that killer lineup. Milwaukee is free from the Selig regime and is free to improve itself. With their great farm system, in a couple years from now, the Brewers could be the dominant team in the NL Central.