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gosox41
03-31-2005, 06:06 PM
Just wanted to start a thread as to why I picked the way I did. I'd love to hear other people's feedback and opinions on mine and their own predictions.

I have the Sox finished tied for second (no playoffs) with 86 wins. While KW has done a good job filling many of the holes he's created over the last 4 years there are 2 other variables that don't make me want to predict more wins.

1. Contreras. The guy still can't pitch out of the stretch and is still tipping pitches. He's been a member of this team since last August and has had all offseason and about 6 weeks of spring training to at least correct 1 of the 2 problems.

For the record KW has come out and said that Contreras is good for 14-15 wins just on talent alone. And if he gets his act together he can be an 18-20 game winner.

Since KW feels strongly enough to say this, I'm going to put him under a micrscope. How many times has KW come out and made predictions like that about a player? He must feel strongly.

2. The division is tougher. The Sox did improve. But so did Detroit. Having Magglio in the line up makes them better. Having Percival in the BP makes them stronger (for hte short term). Their young pitching is getting better.

Minnesota is slightly worse, but not by much at all. They're still the team to beat.

Cleveland has an excellent offense. THeir bullpen is improved with Wickman back healthy. If Sabbathia is healthy I don't see the Indians won't contend.


I think the AL Central will be decided by 3 games or less. I can see Detroit winning in the high 70''s to maybe low 80's. I see the Indians and Twins being good for 86-89 wins. The division has no great team, but it is more competitive then it has been in the past.

I just want to get it out there that while I think KW has done a good job this offseason the 2005 White Sox are by no means the favorite to win IMHO. Remember to consider the fact that their payroll is significantly higher then the Twins and Indians.


On a bit of a sidenote, I'd like to get on my soap box for a moment.

I'm curious as to how certain strong opinioned posters here make their picks. I'd like to see some of them in writing. Afterall, if you're going to critique (or in some cases insult) other posters putting your thoughts/predicitions in writing is a good idea. Anyone can have 20/20 hindsight. I'd love to see what more posters here have to say about the Sox season especially if one feels the need to jump on others or offer vague oen sentenced opinions (ie the Sox will win between 0 and 162 games.)



Bob

Jurr
03-31-2005, 07:31 PM
That is a very safe choice, picking them to win 86. Given the whole Contreras issue, you may be right. There are a couple of points to ponder, though:

1. Contreras is the biggest wild card in the whole mix. However, for once we have a player that can step in if Jose struggles. Brandon McCarthy is going to come on this team during the season at some point. Who he replaces is going to be very intruiging.

2. Yes...the AL Central is better. This is a very good thing, in my opinion. The Sox seemed to underprepare for the teams that they felt they should beat in previous seasons. Their intensity and focus would drop for the Royals, Indians, and Tigers series, which would lead to absurd efforts and losses to subpar pitching. Now that they are improved ballclubs, we may see the Sox respond to the added pressure and elevate their games to beat these seemingly tougher teams. More focus throughout the year translates to wins against tougher teams in other divisions, such as Anaheim, Boston, etc. If the Sox have to eliminate the occasional mental lull during the season due to the fact that their schedule has become more difficult, they may be a better team because of it.

These two things will be keys to the season. The success of McCarthy (when he's forced to get into the show) and the way the Sox respond to the increasing demands of their schedule will be huge. I hope they respond well.

ma-gaga
03-31-2005, 08:02 PM
This is a great idea for a thread.

I picked the Sox for 3rd place. I think that the W.Sox will struggle to score runs. Yes, they'll be more "consistant", but they'll drop under 800 runs scored. There's some good upgrades here, AJ, Iguchi and Dye were nice steps forward, but Podsednik is going to cost this team a lot of outs. He'll look good with his 70 stolen bases, but his OBP of 0.330 in the leadoff position means 450 outs this year! I love AJ, but you got really fantastic production from Burke/Davis last year, there's really not that much of an overall upgrade. I'm wary about Uribe's talent, and Rowand had an amazing year last year, I expect them both to regress a bit.

Hitting upgrades: Iguchi, Dye, Crede
Hitting pushes: AJ, Everett, Konerko
Hitting downgrades: Pods, Rowand, Uribe

Unless Crede and Iguchi crush, this team is in trouble offensively.

So the question is how good is the pitching. Good when healthy. However, I expect Buerhle to miss 5-10 starts (he's just logged too many damn innings over the last 3 years). Garcia will be above average and consistant. Hernandez and Conteras can either win 15 games or LOSE 15 games. However, I just don't see how they BOTH suddenly become consistant healthy effective pitchers. I expect a TOTAL of 250 innings of average pitching (4.75 ERA) from the both of them and maybe a 20-20 record from them. Meaning lots of innings for the relief crew. The relief crew is better, but that's a lot of innings. I just don't see them getting THAT MUCH better overall.

The W.Sox pitching increases to average, but their offense decreases to average. So, I am guessing 775 runs scored, 775 runs allowed, using my handy dandy "propellerhead" formula = 81 wins.

The Twins OF is consistent and deep, their IF will increase their offensive production at C, 1B, SS, and will push at 3B. I expect them to push in outfield production and also push at 2B with Rivas. If they play Punto there's an immediate jump in offensive (OBP jump of 30 points!). Cuddyer isn't as good as Koskie, but he's younger and healthier and is likely a better player for THIS YEAR. Other than that, across the board they've increased their offense. I'm shocked that they won last year trotting out Rivas, Guzman, Blanco and Mientkiewicz for 2/3 of the year. I expect them to get up around 820 runs scored. Unfortunately, a lot of this depends on the knee of the #1 draft pick staying healthy and being able to play in 100-120 games.

Their starting pitching and bullpen will regress, but they were #1 last year. Even with a 10% increase in ERA they will still be above average in runs allowed. 825 runs scored, 725 runs allowed = 91 wins.

Cleveland. If their pitching stays healthy... It's the common denominator really. I think they regress overall offensively to 825 runs scored, and their pitching increases to a average ERA, 775 runs allowed. Total wins = 86.

Detroit, 81 wins.
KC, 70 wins.

It's all about pitching. All three teams will regress towards the mean, but Minnesota was so far above average, and Cleveland/Chicago were so far below average, I don't see them switching places this year. flame away!

:cool:

Iwritecode
03-31-2005, 08:10 PM
I picked the Sox for 3rd place.

<TEAL>:dtroll:</TEAL>

JB98
03-31-2005, 08:44 PM
I'm picking the Sox to go 84-78, just like I do every year. Almost without fail, I'm within two games of being correct every season. Second place, here we come again!!!!!

MRKARNO
03-31-2005, 08:44 PM
There are so many question marks with this team, primarily in the pitching department, that it is difficult to predict an outcome definitively.

I think their offense will be fine. Podsednik is a question mark, but the bigger issue is whether or not Ozzie will be brave enough to pull him out of the starting role if he falters. If he doesn't falter then all the better, but there's a decent chance that we'll be better off with an outfield of Dye, Rowand and Everett once Thomas comes back. I have my doubts on whether Ozzie will be bold enough to bench Podsednik, seeing that he is Ozzie's kind of player. Overall I think the offense will still score more than 800 runs this year and probably in the 820-830 range. There's just so much consistancy from top to bottom and events such as a Crede breakout could be very good for this offense.

As far as the starting pitching goes, we have a buncha question marks. I think Buerhle is the surest bet of the bunch and I think he is going to contend for the Cy Young award in 2005. There were so many good signs last year, such as an improved K/9 and K/BB rates and an amazing 2.63 Road ERA. He got killed by the home run factor of the cell last year, giving up 22 at home vs 11 on the road.

Freddy Garcia I think will be solid, but not amazing. Maybe a 4-4.30 ERA. The White Sox cannot afford a regression back to the 2002 and 2003-type seasons he had with Seattle, not at 9 million a year.

Will El Duque stay healthy? I think he will be for the most part, but I'm not sure he'll perform amazingly when he is healthy. Maybe a 4-4.3 ERA like Garcia, but nowhere near the 3.3 mark he posted with New York in 80ish innings.

Quite honestly I think Contreras is going to be awful again in 2005. He just does not appear to understand how to pitch in the major leagues and cannot put together a string of good outings. He is going to be up and down all season if he's given the chance to pitch that long. I hope he's not and I think McCarthy will be more worthy of his rotation spot when all is said and done.

Garland I think will be his old mediocre self, with a 4.50ish ERA. That wont be such a bad thing and the chance for breakout is still there.

When McCarthy is brought up I think he will be amazing from day one, but the question with him is when he gets brought up. It will probably be when one of the Cubans fail, in the case of El Duque with health and in the case of Contreras with his performance.

The bullpen I think should be solid. Cotts should improve, but I worry that Vizcaino may not turn out to be that great. Hermanson, Marte and Takatsu will do a great job at the back end of the bullpen. Politte is still somewhat of a question mark. Overall I think it will be a strength and not a weakness.

Due to the size of the questions on the starting pitching staff, it's hard for me to pick more than 85 wins and a second place finish. I dont see Cleveland or Detroit as being better than 85 wins. Minny I think could regress to about 87-88 wins due to their losses and the regressions of Nathan, Santana and Bradke, so if the White Sox can get their act together, the division could be had more easily this year than last, but the starting pitching is going to have to at least not be a weakness.

Lip Man 1
03-31-2005, 10:14 PM
Bob:

In the past I have always picked the Sox to win a specific number of games (look it up) usually 83 or so. (Who am I to argue with mediocrity?)

This year however I simply can't call it. They made such a radical makeover I have no idea how it will turn out. As I said in the past it will either work out very,very well (90+ wins) or be a disaster (75 wins). This year there won't be any middle ground... unlike years past.

That's the best I can do...take it or leave it.

Lip

PAPChiSox729
03-31-2005, 10:22 PM
I am being pretty optimistic with my 93 win prediction.

Offense: I just think that Pods and Iguchi will have good years and set the table for Konerko, Everett, and Thomas when he is healthy. I think Crede will hit around .260 which may be just enough for him to stay around. It won't be a breakout year, but it isn't going to be as bad as '04. Uribe is going to surprise. I like the energy he brings. Rowand, AJ, Dye, and the rest should put up typical numbers.

Starting Pitching: Freddy and Mark will have very good years, though not Cy Young caliber. Garland will improve and win 14games. Contreras will again be both horrendous and dominant. El Duque will have a good stretch early in the season of about 15 starts and win 9 games. But he will get tired, ultimately making way for McCarthy. Bradon will continue his success and win 3 or 4 games before El Duque comes back.

Relief Pitching: Vizcaino is my pick to click this year. I think that Shingo, Marte, Hermanson, and Vizcaino will make one of the best bullpens in the AL. Cotts and Polittle will be serviceable.

Overall, it should be an exciting year.

Ol' No. 2
03-31-2005, 10:25 PM
Bob:

In the past I have always picked the Sox to win a specific number of games (look it up) usually 83 or so. (Who am I to argue with mediocrity?)

This year however I simply can't call it. They made such a radical makeover I have no idea how it will turn out. As I said in the past it will either work out very,very well (90+ wins) or be a disaster (75 wins). This year there won't be any middle ground... unlike years past.

That's the best I can do...take it or leave it.

LipLip, this time we agree completely. I think there will be no middle ground. Either the strategy will work and they'll win 90+ and the division or it will flop. But I think the pitching is too strong for it to flop completely, so I'll put a lower limit of 81-81. Of course, this all assumes no major injuries.

MRKARNO
03-31-2005, 10:29 PM
Bob:

In the past I have always picked the Sox to win a specific number of games (look it up) usually 83 or so. (Who am I to argue with mediocrity?)

This year however I simply can't call it. They made such a radical makeover I have no idea how it will turn out. As I said in the past it will either work out very,very well (90+ wins) or be a disaster (75 wins). This year there won't be any middle ground... unlike years past.

That's the best I can do...take it or leave it.

Lip

I agree with you for the most part and the 90 and 75 numbers are ones that I've also sorta seen as the possiblities for this team. It's really hard to gauge how a full year with this roster will pan out. Since opening day of last year, we've seen the addition of 3/5 of our current starting rotation and the entire list of players includes Contreras, Hernandez, Garcia, Hermanson, Vizcaino, Iguchi, Pierzynski, Everett, Dye, Podsednik, Widger and possibly Ozuna. The outfield and the rotation have seen huge changes since Opening Day 2004 and that's inevitably going to bring question marks, nevermind the fact that there are performance-related question marks for a lot of these players.

Another major factor is health. Dye, Thomas, Everett and Hernandez are all players that have had major health issues recently and their ability (or inability) to stay on the field will be a huge factor for this team in 2005.

Additionally, how big of an upgrade might be made mid-season if the White Sox are contending? That could be another major factor in the White Sox' bid for the AL Central crown.

It really could go either way: The rotation might end up as one of the top in the AL, the lineup might not be a big dropoff from last year with solid contributions from top to bottom and the bullpen might be a lockdown pen. Conversely, the rotation might fall apart, the lineup might have lost too much power and not include enough of Thomas and the bullpen might be terrible. I just dont really see anything that we can count on in 2005. You can look to particular players and say that they will probably fall within a very narrow range of performance, but a large number of players have had a very wide range of performances in the recent past.

There simply is no way to tell if this team is going to work out. I predicted 85 wins because it's about where we've been the past couple of years with a bit of optimism thrown in, but honestly neither 90 wins nor 75 wins would surprise me.

gosox41
04-01-2005, 08:19 AM
Bob:

In the past I have always picked the Sox to win a specific number of games (look it up) usually 83 or so. (Who am I to argue with mediocrity?)

This year however I simply can't call it. They made such a radical makeover I have no idea how it will turn out. As I said in the past it will either work out very,very well (90+ wins) or be a disaster (75 wins). This year there won't be any middle ground... unlike years past.

That's the best I can do...take it or leave it.

Lip

Guess I'll have to take it.:D:

Seriously, I think anyone with a strong opinion about this team (good or bad) needs to come out and say what it is. It's easy to use hindsight when judging a team. I just want to see as many people as possible predict just to see who was right/wrong and why. There's no money on this and it doesn't mean one is more knowledgable a baseball fan then the other if one guess correctly and one doesn't. It's more about people who have strong (and insulting) opinions at the end of the season who won't listen to the other side of the argument that I want to see make predictions.



Bob

gosox41
04-01-2005, 08:23 AM
That is a very safe choice, picking them to win 86. Given the whole Contreras issue, you may be right. There are a couple of points to ponder, though:

1. Contreras is the biggest wild card in the whole mix. However, for once we have a player that can step in if Jose struggles. Brandon McCarthy is going to come on this team during the season at some point. Who he replaces is going to be very intruiging.

.

I also think McCarthy will be here at some point. Don't know if that's good or bad right now. I think he'll have a productive career, but I have to wonder if he's ready for the big leagues in 2005. I'd hate to see the Sox rush yet another kid and watch him fade quickly and not live up to the hype (which I'm not buying into.)



Bob

The Racehorse
04-01-2005, 08:33 AM
I think this team will either win big time [101 wins] or have another controlled crash landing [80-85 wins].

This team will score more than enough runs to win.... the offense will be there. If the pitching does anything more than show up, SOX win the division.

The last two seasons, it was the offense that underachieved... big crooked numbers one day, then the inability to manufacture runs to win low scoring games the next day... KW's retooling effort fixed that, imo.

Now, the onus is on the pitching staff... if they underachieve, it'll be another controlled crash landing of a season... if they do well [or dominate], the team has the potential to catch fire, ala the 2000 season.

Since I'm an optimist, and all good things come to an end eventually [1917], World Series baby! :gulp:

For the record, my prediction last year was a .500 team... not a bad guess, eh?!

Well, I'm guessing that this team will catch lightning in a bottle... who's with me? :bandance:

voodoochile
04-01-2005, 08:55 AM
I'm just happy the Sox finally added a veteran 5th starter if for no other reason than it allows the prospects to continue to develop.

This team is missing some of the spectacular players from years past but is much deeper than at any time since I can remember. The bullpen is as good as it has been and the starting 5 all have the potential to win 15 games or more. In short, the pitching has no obvious holes to start the season and that is obviously way cool compared to past years.

Offensively I think it will be the same as always. That is to say, if Frank plays most of the season and puts up anything close to Frank style numbers when he is playing the offense will be fine, but otherwise it may be a tough year offensively. I think Crede will be better, but not spectacularly so - .260, 25 and that will be acceptable now that we know what he's capable of. The big question marks for me are Pods and Iguchi who both are unknowns yet are being counted on to be major forces in the lineup. If they struggle, the team will too until they find the top of the order production they need. I won't be surprised to see Pods riding the bench later this season with Everett playing full time in LF which I still think makes our strongest offensive team (bat Iguchi leadoff and Rowand second).

As to my pick for the Sox to win it all, I have to admit, it is tongue in cheek. I am a fan. I will always make that prediction in ST - unless the Sox clearly and totally suck - which they don't this year and haven't for a while.

I do expect the Sox to be in a dogfight all year long and I do like the mental makeup of the team and feel it will be better able to handle that pressure. In addition, I feel that because of the tight race, the changes to the ball park and the fact that the flubbies are a sell out already (or essentially a sell out) the Sox will draw over 2.5M at the turnstyles. When the flubbies arms give out midway through the season and they fall into 4th, the Sox will be primed and ready to take the city by storm. Now they just need to earhole TorIIIIIII at sometime this season to show they aren't the walking dead we have seen the past few year.

GO SOX!

Lip Man 1
04-01-2005, 10:00 AM
One other point to consider is the rest of the division. Hawk was saying during the game with the Rockies yesterday that he think the A.L. Central is the most 'underrated' division in baseball. If he is right you could see the Sox, Indians, Tigers and Twins beating each other up on a regular basis.

If that's the case it's not beyond the realm of possibility for the division winner to have 85 wins yet still be a better team then past divisional winners.

We'll see...

Lip

Flight #24
04-01-2005, 10:30 AM
Great idea Bob, I'll bite....

- Pods is going to put up a nice OBP, around .350. I say this because with his focus on getting on base, he's been wreaking havoc in ST. And while those #s can usually be inflated, I like the fact that he's walking a lot more than his history suggests, which indicates to me that he's really focusing on strike zone control and improving there.
- I don't expect any dropoffs from ARow - he's too hard of a worker.
- Everett looks awesome, and his history suggests that when in shape and/or a contract year, he'll produce.
- AJ will be AJ. Uribe will NOT be the guy we had in the first half, but IMO will be more steady around .275 avg with 20+HR power.
- Frank will come back strong around mid-May, allowing us to play who's hot between Carl & Dye and give Frank days off.
Offense will NOT drop off significantly form last year in terms of total runs scored.

Pitching:
- Garland's going to pitch like what he is: a decent #3 starter.
- Contreras will continue his high variability, meaning he'll win 10-14 games, but with bad averages.
- Buehrle will put up another Cy-caliber year and Garcia will win 18 with an ERA in the low 4s (great for USCF).
- The X-factor is El Duque. He'll probabl miss some games, but pitch decently when he's healthy. We'll see some spot starts early from Hermanson (with poor results), and if there's a significant chunk of time missed - McCarthy.
Overall, the Sox won't have any dominators #3-5, but between the 4 guys (Garland, Contreras, Hernandez, McCarthy), we'll have the most solid back of the rotation in the AL.

The key will be the bullpen, which will be dominant behind Shingo, Marte, Vizcaino, Hermanson, Politte, and an improved Cotts.

On the opposition:
- Minnesota is going to be worse at 3B, Mauer won't last as a full-time catcher, and their #4 &5 spots are going to be inconsistent. They'll coutneract that with upgrades offensively at SS & 1B, but their D won't be as good as last year. Overall, that'll impact them significantly. They'll battle, but the Sox won't have their traditional late-season swoon and that will keep the Twins a couple games back.

- Tribe: that pitching's going to get lit up. Sabathia's the only guy who'll be decent. millwood's going to suffer in the Jake/AL, Westbrook will continue to be inconsistent, and Elarton/Lee still suck. And their 'pen is still horrible.
- Detroit will be improved, but not enough, and Maggs will be sitting out with various non-knee related ailments.

Sox go 90-72, Twins 88-74, Indians 84-78, Detroit 79-83, KC 5-157.

Jerome
04-02-2005, 10:34 PM
I just don't like the way this "small ball" thing is going to work. Defense wasn't a big problem for us last year, and it was not the reason we failed to make the postseason. Just because we didn't have a lot of spectacular web gems does not mean we were a bad defensive team.

I really believe that our biggest problem last year was a poor top of the order. (Remeber in June when Uribe and Harris were getting on base A TON and how unstoppable this team was?) Well now we have the leadoff man but with no CLee, Frank for a few months, Maggs (When Frank and Maggs got hurt last year it was obvious we were screwed. But that does not mean that having power hitters on the team is a bad thing.) we will have trouble producing runs.

Our pitching staff, despite lots of optimism and KW kool aid around here is not good enough to be expected to win a lot of 2-1 games. And untill Frank gets back, I don't see how Konerko can be expected to provide all the power.

However, I think I may be proved wrong with the balance that AJ and Iguchi will provide to the offense. I really hope so.

The way we play in 2005 will be different that 2004. But I can't really see the outcome changing a whole lot. The offense will be slightly worse, the pitching will be slightly better.

Glad I got that off my chest!

Palehose13
04-03-2005, 11:45 AM
Our pitching staff, despite lots of optimism and KW kool aid around here is not good enough to be expected to win a lot of 2-1 games. And untill Frank gets back, I don't see how Konerko can be expected to provide all the power.


*sigh*

Konerko provides all the power on this team? Are we forgetting guys like Everett, Rowand, and Dye? In fact, Everett and Rowand had better power numbers in ST than Konerko.

Konerko 4 HR, 10 RBI, .682 SLG
Rowand 5 HR, 24 RBI, .797 SLG
Everett 6 HR, 22 RBI, .767 SLG

People gotta stop believing that Knoerko and Thomas are the Sox only source of power. Heck, almost everyone in the starting line up is capable of hitting 20+ HR's.

soxwon
04-03-2005, 12:52 PM
SOX PREDICTIONS 2005

CARL EVERETT WILL HIT 6 HOMERS IN APRIL, AND BAT .300
FRANK THOMAS WILL DEBUT MAY 8, AND HIT 10 HOMERS BY END OF JUNE
JOE CREDE WILL BREAK OUT AND HIT 28 HOMERS
THE SOX BY ALL STAR BREAK WILL BE 10 GAMES OVER 500
THEY WILL BREAK EVEN IN A VERY TOUGH AUGUST BUT WILL EXPLODE IN SEPT.
SOX WILL CLINCH DIVISION,SEPT 24 AFTER DEFEATING THE TWINS 9-4.
A.J WILL NAIL TORRIE HUNTER AT THE PLATE.
MARK BUEHRLE WILL WIN 20, GARCIA 17, CONTRERAS 14, EL DUQUE 11, GARLAND 13.
SHING TAKATSU WILL SAVE 32 GAMES,
IGUCHI WILL HIT .276 WITH 13 HOMERS.
SCOTT POSEDNIK WILL STEAL 66 BASES, AND HIT .289.
THE SOX WILL WIN 90 GAMES.
TWICE DURING THE SEASON, THE SOX WILL BE THE HOTTEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
APRIL WILL BE ONLY 4 GAMES OVER, MAY WILL BE A BIG MONTH.
THE SOX WILL BEAT THE CUBS 4 TO 2.
EVERETT, ROWAND AND THOMAS WILL HIT HOMERS AT WRIGLEY
SOX WILL WIN 8 OF 12 GAMES AGAINST SD-COLO-LA-ARIZ
BRANDON MCCARTHY WILL BE CALLED UP IN JUNE AND WIN 8 GAMES.
THE SOX WILL DRAW 2.3 MILLION FANS.

THE YANKS WILL WIN THE EAST BY 7 GAMES,
SAM SOSA WILL HIT 38 HOMERS, MAGGS WILL GET HURT IN MAY.
THE CUBS WILL FINISH THIRD, KERRY WOOD WILL VISIT THE DL.
BY july CUB FANS WILL BOO COREY PATTERSON.
NOMAR WILL GET HURT IN AUGUST.

Palehose13
04-03-2005, 01:04 PM
BY july CUB FANS WILL BOO COREY PATTERSON.

That's pretty generous. I'd figure they would start booing him by June. :wink:

owensmouth
04-03-2005, 03:35 PM
For all the proclaimed improvement in the starting staff, it looks remarkably similar to the one we had last August and September and it was very ordinary.

There's more experience in the relief corps. Just remember, last year Mike Jackson was the most experienced reliever.

I expect Garland to go 13 - 10 this year. I expect Buehrle to go 15 - 10. I expect Garcia to go 14 - 14. I expect Contreras to go 7 - 14. Hernandez will go 8 - 10.

Williams has 15 million reasons to keep Contreras on the starting staff. Because of the money still owed to him, he'll torture us most of the year.

Is there anyone on this team that can lay down a bunt?

Podsednik may bat .270 and steal 80 bases, but I have serious doubts if he will score many runs. The same people who couldn't move runners last year are playing this year.

This team gives up too many unearned runs to be a valid contender.

From the day that Kenny Williams took over in 2000, this team has deteriorated. I believe it is now beyond a fix. It needs to be completely dismantled and started over.

MeanFish
04-03-2005, 04:09 PM
For all the proclaimed improvement in the starting staff, it looks remarkably similar to the one we had last August and September and it was very ordinary.

There's more experience in the relief corps. Just remember, last year Mike Jackson was the most experienced reliever.

I expect Garland to go 13 - 10 this year. I expect Buehrle to go 15 - 10. I expect Garcia to go 14 - 14. I expect Contreras to go 7 - 14. Hernandez will go 8 - 10.

Williams has 15 million reasons to keep Contreras on the starting staff. Because of the money still owed to him, he'll torture us most of the year.

Is there anyone on this team that can lay down a bunt?

Podsednik may bat .270 and steal 80 bases, but I have serious doubts if he will score many runs. The same people who couldn't move runners last year are playing this year.

This team gives up too many unearned runs to be a valid contender.

From the day that Kenny Williams took over in 2000, this team has deteriorated. I believe it is now beyond a fix. It needs to be completely dismantled and started over.

Counter-points:

1.) Mike Jackson would be the most experienced relief pitcher on most teams by a landslide. His major league career lasted 18 years.

2.) Jose Contreras can't go 7-14, because if he does pitch that poorly then McCarthy will be up by June. It's unlikely that Contreras pitches that badly though. His peripheral numbers will probably not look so hot, but he pitches great when he wins. He did have 13 wins last year, which matches his number of quality starts. So let's say he figures it out three more times next year -- that's a sixteen game winner.

3.) This is a good defense. There won't be a single weak fielder out there on opening day. Maybe they're not great now, but they'll get better.

4.) Garcia pitched similarly awful in 2001 Spring Training. He went 18-6 that year.

5.) If Podsednik gets on base a lot, he'll score a lot. Simple as that. We'll probably leave more baserunners aboard this year because we'll have more baserunners, but that's nobody's fault.

6.) We're not a smallball team. We have some speed and OBP ability we didn't have last year, but there won't be many situations where we need to bunt in the middle of the order. Pods can advance bases on his own -- we don't have to bunt him over. The best thing we can do is put the ball into play and let him run. Lots of extra base hit ability on this club. Pods can bunt, and if we *really* need someone to bunt we've always got Timo on the bench to play that role if we need it.

7.) No way Hernandez goes 8-10. He's a great pitcher, the only question is his endurance through the season. He has a lot of pitches from a lot of angles, and he's been working on the ones he's not comfortable with yet in spring training.

Ol' No. 2
04-03-2005, 04:55 PM
Podsednik may bat .270 and steal 80 bases, but I have serious doubts if he will score many runs. The same people who couldn't move runners last year are playing this year.Not sure what team you're talking about here. Last year the White Sox were #1 in all of MLB in percentage of runners who scored after reaching scoring position. Unfortunately they were also third from last in RISP opportunities.

fquaye149
04-03-2005, 06:02 PM
Hernandez will go 8 - 10.

.

i think someone told you the wrong "spit" in the cereal argument. see you must have got the old song and dance "so and so can't pitch" confused with the "so and so is injury prone"

Hernandez is the so and so who is injury prone. In years when he has had 14 or more decisions he has had a losing record....once. out of 6 times. And that year he still won 12 games.

No big deal...Peter Gammons just got you crossed up on that one...so you got your sox bashing confused. no big deal.

Palehose13
04-03-2005, 06:12 PM
No big deal...Peter Gammons just got you crossed up on that one...so you got your sox bashing confused. no big deal.

:roflmao: