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The Wimperoo
03-25-2005, 12:57 PM
If you thought yesterday's article from BP made you mad, you probably shouldn't read this one.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3869

Flame on!

OEO Magglio
03-25-2005, 01:01 PM
Aaron Rowand (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/rowanaa01.php) is presumably back, taking the place of the alien that played in his body last year


Freddy Garcia (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/garcifr02.php) and Mark Buehrle (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/buehrma01.php) are mid-rotation innings guys who get paid like aces

Are you fricken kidding me?? These quotes are very laughable.

SoxxoS
03-25-2005, 01:03 PM
You can contact him on that page, so let's send him a barrage of e-mails.

Flight #24
03-25-2005, 01:11 PM
71-91?????

Joe Sheehan - don't be bogartin'! Pass that s**t around!!!

ma_deuce
03-25-2005, 01:16 PM
White Sox in fourth place? Good. This will only make winning the division that much sweeter.

:pee Joe Sheehan

Deuce

jackbrohamer
03-25-2005, 01:16 PM
"Actually, that shorts the pickup of Tadahito Iguchi (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/IGUCHI00000000A.php), who was kind of a Japanese Ray Durham (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/durhara01.php). Keep in mind that Durham had his last healthy, effective season at 29; Iguchi turned 30 in December."

Yah, Iguchi may as well hang 'em up, he doesn't have a chance.

Corlose 15
03-25-2005, 01:30 PM
"Actually, that shorts the pickup of Tadahito Iguchi (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/IGUCHI00000000A.php), who was kind of a Japanese Ray Durham (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/durhara01.php). Keep in mind that Durham had his last healthy, effective season at 29; Iguchi turned 30 in December."


That is probably the dumbest most irrelevant thing I have ever seen written. I will be absolutely shocked if this team only wins 71 games.

Rowand has hit well every time he's been in the majors except for when he was still recovering from his accident. Plus the fact that he works his arse off I don't really expect him to drop off all that much.

People devalue this offense so much its amazing. Rowand, Uribe, Everett, Konerko, Thomas, Crede, Dye will all hit 20 HR at least.

I'm just ready for the season to start so I don't have to read any more of this crap.

soxtalker
03-25-2005, 01:35 PM
Interesting analysis. He seems to be fairly negative on most teams / players, so one can probably just assume that his grading scale is pretty tough. I'm a bit more interested in what he has to say about other teams. He doesn't like the Twins defense. It will be worth keeping an eye on some of those young players on the Indians that he mentions.

anewman35
03-25-2005, 01:41 PM
People devalue this offense so much its amazing. Rowand, Uribe, Everett, Konerko, Thomas, Crede, Dye will all hit 20 HR at least.



Don't forget, Thomas is going to retire! He's never going to play again!

jackbrohamer
03-25-2005, 01:42 PM
IIRC Sheehan has picked the Sox to finish first a few times since 2000, so maybe it's a good sign he's turning on them.

The Wimperoo
03-25-2005, 01:49 PM
Interesting analysis. He seems to be fairly negative on most teams / players, so one can probably just assume that his grading scale is pretty tough. I'm a bit more interested in what he has to say about other teams. He doesn't like the Twins defense. It will be worth keeping an eye on some of those young players on the Indians that he mentions.

I don't understand where all the love for the Cleveland bullpen comes from. It's basically the same guys that sucked last year plus suckass Arthur Rhodes.

ondafarm
03-25-2005, 01:50 PM
White Sox in fourth place? Now that is laughable.

I think the Twins are in serious trouble this year. The Tigers will improve, but the long-term Magglio deal was not their best move. The Indians will improve, I pick them to finish second. The Royals? Well, he's spot-on on the Royals, but so what?

maurice
03-25-2005, 01:52 PM
:whatever:
Any prediction that the Sox will finish sub-.500 for the first time this century is unadulterated BS. It doesn't help when the prediction is "supported" by additional nonsense like:
Aaron Rowand is presumably back, taking the place of the alien that played in his body last year
Freddy Garcia and Mark Buehrle are mid-rotation innings guys who get paid like aces

Everybody conveniently forgets that Rowand's career numbers are quite good (.290 AVE, 67 2B, and 41 HR over 1069 career ABs). We're not talking about Curt Warner here. Even a stathead should recognize that Rowand's unlikely to suck in 2005 at the ripe old age of 27.

Meanwhile, Buehrle and Garcia have been two of the top pitchers in the AL over the past several years. The fact that they eat a lot of innings is just another plus. Even a stathead should recognize that they're unlikely to suck in 2005 at the ripe old age of 26 and 28, respectively.

Finally, neither Garcia nor Buerhle "get paid like aces," though both are definitely top-of-the-rotation starters. In fact, Buehrle is one of the best cost-per-production values in all of pro sports.

Whitesox029
03-25-2005, 01:56 PM
I would put down $1,000 that this guy is a lifelong Cubs or Twins fan.
Half the guys he mentioned in the Twins part haven't even played in a full MLB season before.

as Justin Morneau (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/morneju01.php) plays a full year and is one of the ten best hitters in the league,
This made me laugh hardest. Morneau's career numbers:
386 AB .259 avg 23 HR 74 RBI 53 HR
I can name at least 20 AL hitters I would rather have on my team:
Alex Rodriguez
Vladimir Guerrero
Miguel Tejada
Manny Ramirez
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford
Adrian Beltre
David Ortiz
Mark Teixera
Melvin Mora
Derek Jeter
Paul Konerko
Travis Hafner
Eric Chavez
Jorge Posada
Hideki Matsui
Frank Thomas
Aaron Rowand
Aubrey Huff
Tadahito Iguchi
I'd do more but I don't have time to name them all.

mikesouthside
03-25-2005, 01:59 PM
YOU ARE KILLING ME SMALLS............

Who in the White Sox organization wizzed in his Cheerios? Man....
LET'S JUST ALL STOP ROOTING FOR THE SOX....WE ALREADY KNOW THEY WILL BE WORTHLESS THIS YEAR.

WhiteSoxFan84
03-25-2005, 02:02 PM
You can contact him on that page, so let's send him a barrage of e-mails.

I did, here's what mine loked like...

Joe, calling you a MORON would insult everyone else I've called a moron before. You are either a long-time suffering Cubs fan who can't handle how much his own team SUCKS - or - you are just a MORON who doesn't know a THING about baseball. 71-91? I'll give you 1,000-1 odds of the Sox winning more than 71 games. All I ask is that you put down at least $1,000. How about that Joe She-han? Want to put your money where your mouth is? Anyone publishing your articles has to be a complete baffoon. You've lost my respect along with the respect of many other loyal baseball fans.

I wish I had a copy of the e-mail I sent to Teddy Greenstein :(:

PAPChiSox729
03-25-2005, 02:06 PM
What is this?! *takes a big breath* ...under the radar, under the radar... Ok, I'm calm now, but that preview was aggrivating to read, especially the comments about Rowand, Buehrle, and Garcia. That preview was just a total joke. 71-91?! All I can say is "Under the radar!"

PAPChiSox729
03-25-2005, 02:11 PM
YOU ARE KILLING ME SMALLS............

Who in the White Sox organization wizzed in his Cheerios? Man....
LET'S JUST ALL STOP ROOTING FOR THE SOX....WE ALREADY KNOW THEY WILL BE WORTHLESS THIS YEAR.

Use teal.

:tealtutor:

mweflen
03-25-2005, 02:29 PM
Wow. I mean, wow. This was just about the most ill-informed, specious piece of tripe I've ever read. And that's not me speaking from a fanboy perspective, that's an objective opinion. Anyone who projects the Sox to win 71 games when they won 83 last season is a real smacktard.

Our rotation is improved, power "losses" are offset (Maggs and Frank only played half seasons, Dye matches Lee's production, and AJ/Pods/Gucci more than amply replace the production of Davis/Harris/Borchard), and the lineup has 2 fewer automatic outs (Gucci/AJ instead of Harris/Davis). Not to mention, if one of our rotation goes down, we have a ready replacement in McCarthy.

If we don't win 83 games or more, I'll eat every White Sox hat in my collection. 85 would be a good pessimistic prediction, 86 or 87 a rational prediction based on injury potential, and 89+ would be optimistic but still reachable.

mikesouthside
03-25-2005, 02:30 PM
My Bad !!!

mweflen
03-25-2005, 02:30 PM
YOU ARE KILLING ME SMALLS............

Who in the White Sox organization wizzed in his Cheerios? Man....
LET'S JUST ALL STOP ROOTING FOR THE SOX....WE ALREADY KNOW THEY WILL BE WORTHLESS THIS YEAR.
:tealpolice:

I can't resist the car, as educational as "tealtutor" is...

mweflen
03-25-2005, 02:35 PM
I emailed this bozo a slightly expanded version of my post. Will post any reply.

CHISOXFAN13
03-25-2005, 02:36 PM
If the Twins finish 22 games ahead of the Sox, I will never watch another baseball game again.

71-91? Please.

MisterB
03-25-2005, 02:52 PM
YOU ARE KILLING ME SMALLS............

Who in the White Sox organization wizzed in his Cheerios? Man....
LET'S JUST ALL STOP ROOTING FOR THE SOX....WE ALREADY KNOW THEY WILL BE WORTHLESS THIS YEAR.

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=2571

Banix12
03-25-2005, 03:01 PM
Joe Sheehan is a tool who just goes looking for arguements, so there is no point in ever emailing the guy because I wouldn't want it turning into a whole "thing". I just don't like the guy, not for anything he has ever said about baseball, just as a person. Just from the few times I have listened to him talk or have seen him on Television I can tell from his body language and the way he talks that he is just a jerk and a blowhard. I used to like BP as a site until I saw this guy.

In response to his article, yeah it's really dumb to say Iguchi is going to dissapoint at age 30 because Durham peaked at 29. They are two different people and while there are sometimes overall age trends. It's not like the two are the same guy.

As for Rowand, once again he just looks at the numbers and didn't get a chance to see him come up in 03' before the Everett Trade when he was hitting everything in sight.

I think he just heard that the sox were taking a small-ball approach this season and blasted the sox because he just doesn't like that approach to baseball. Not paying attention that the sox are only really a small ball team at the top of the lineup and 3-9 the sox are still basically a power hitting team. I would say it's more a case of his own prejudices clouding his already shaky judgement.

As for the rest of his predictions, he spoke positively about Kyle Lohse and the mystery 5th starter of the twins, so you know he's stretching. And he said the best thing about the twins bullpen other than joe nathan will be Jessie Crain, a rookie reliever, who however promising, hasn't played much at the major league level. While I think Morneau is a good player, he's still a second year player and it's going to be more difficult to offset the loss of Koskie.

As far as the indians go, I think they are better but not better than the sox. Having Wickman and Howry back in the pen and healthy will help them. Millwood is likely to get rocked at Jacobs field and the other hitters parks in the AL Central though.

ma-gaga
03-25-2005, 03:09 PM
What did you expect, he's a delusional Yankees fan. :cool:

MeanFish
03-25-2005, 03:10 PM
Joe Sheehan is a tool who just goes looking for arguements, so there is no point in ever emailing the guy because I wouldn't want it turning into a whole "thing". I just don't like the guy, not for anything he has ever said about baseball, just as a person. Just from the few times I have listened to him talk or have seen him on Television I can tell from his body language and the way he talks that he is just a jerk and a blowhard. I used to like BP as a site until I saw this guy.

In response to his article, yeah it's really dumb to say Iguchi is going to dissapoint at age 30 because Durham peaked at 29. They are two different people and while there are sometimes overall age trends. It's not like the two are the same guy.

As for Rowand, once again he just looks at the numbers and didn't get a chance to see him come up in 03' before the Everett Trade when he was hitting everything in sight.

I think he just heard that the sox were taking a small-ball approach this season and blasted the sox because he just doesn't like that approach to baseball. Not paying attention that the sox are only really a small ball team at the top of the lineup and 3-9 the sox are still basically a power hitting team. I would say it's more a case of his own prejudices clouding his already shaky judgement.

As for the rest of his predictions, he spoke positively about Kyle Lohse and the mystery 5th starter of the twins, so you know he's stretching. And he said the best thing about the twins bullpen other than joe nathan will be Jessie Crain, a rookie reliever, who however promising, hasn't played much at the major league level. While I think Morneau is a good player, he's still a second year player and it's going to be more difficult to offset the loss of Koskie.

As far as the indians go, I think they are better but not better than the sox. Having Wickman and Howry back in the pen and healthy will help them. Millwood is likely to get rocked at Jacobs field and the other hitters parks in the AL Central though.

Basically, it seemed to me like he picked a final finishing order and THEN tried to justify it by bending statistics. Number can paint a large variety of stories depending on which ones you use and how you use them. You can say Iguchi reminds of a young Ray Durham -- or you can say he's more of a Japanese Roberto Alomar. Both are in fact fairly accurate statements (though Iguchi fields to his right better than Durham ever has) but one is more positive and one is more negative. You can say, against what all available data suggests, that Aaron Rowand will return to normal. You can say that Mark Buerhle and Freddy Garcia are average because they pitch in a pitcher's park (worst. argument. ever.) Or you can say they've both maintained a winning record and impressive away statistics while pitching in a pitcher's park. It's all in how you tell the story. He had us picked fourth before he ever sat down to evaluate.

Edit: My comment about Freddy is based on his limited time with us so far.

soxtalker
03-25-2005, 03:35 PM
As I stated earlier, I find it to be an interesting analysis -- primarily for his views on the other teams. Like any prognostication, it could be entirely wrong or it could end up being brilliant. But it is information.

It seems to me that there are two tendencies on this board on how we tend to evaluate things.

First, there seems to be a strong bias to expect the Sox players to do well and, conversely, to downplay the other teams' players chances. That's natural, as we are immersed in the Sox. But any evaluation of other teams' players helps us glean some information.

Second, there seems to be a bias here toward players with established records. "Prospect" is almost a disparaging word at times. His (relatively glowing) comments about Cleveland are based upon the development of some very young players. They may do no better than last year, but, then again, they may simply be developing. It is worth watching.

Again, I'm not saying that this guy is brilliant. But I don't see the point of just trying to prove he's an idiot.

MeanFish
03-25-2005, 03:37 PM
Here's a gem...

From The Columbia Chronicle Online - March 26th, 2001:

"3. SEATTLE MARINERS
The loss of Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez to free agency the last two seasons is an example of everything wrong with baseball and professional sports in general; big money wins over loyalty. The good news for devastated Mariners fans is that SAFECO Field isn’t a hitter’s ballpark. Seattle’s pitching is solid across the board. Still, unless they come up with some surprise run support, the Mariners will be trailing the A’s by double-digits before August. Prediction: 78-84"

David N. Townsend, Baseball Journal, April 2001:

"4. Seattle Mariners. The joy ride they've experienced since jettisoning both Randy Johnson and Junior Griffey will not continue following the loss of A-Rod. In the first place, they actually got decent compensation for the first two (Garcia, Guillen, Cameron), whereas the only new addition following Rodriguez's departure is Ichiro Suzuki, a glorified Triple-A hitter from Japan. Jamie Moyer is probably all done, and the pitchers who are supposed to be their salvation (Meche, Anderson) are all trapped in the doctor's office. Their best asset is their bullpen, which is ironic since in the past they won the Division with horrendous relief pitching. You can bet Piniella will find a way to screw up Nelson, Rhodes, et al."

2001 AL West Final Standings:
1. Seattle Mariners: 116-46
2. Oakland Athletics: 102-60
3. Anaheim Angels: 75-87
4. Texas Rangers: 73-89

By the way, guess who led the pitching staff for those Mariners?

Freddy.

For that 116 win team that lost their supposed best player in the previous offseason, Freddy Garcia went 18-6, and posted a 3.05 ERA with 238.7 innings pitched, 163 strikeouts, and 69 walks.

In Spring Training that year, he blew away hitters with a 6.75 ERA.

Also new to the Mariners lineup that season...was a question mark of a Japanese import named Ichiro Suzuki who broke out in a huge way for them. In 2001 spring training he hit .308

Iguchi is currently hitting .295

just food for thought :)

BTW: Apparently Scotty Po also contributed 6 at-bats to that club. He even got a hit! :cool:

jabrch
03-25-2005, 04:03 PM
Sheehan might be the least informed baseball writer out there. I still can't believe people actually PAY to read that site.

santo=dorf
03-25-2005, 04:17 PM
With the contracts Wright, Pavano, Benson, Paul Wilson, and Milton received this offseason, the idea that both Buehrle and Garcia are middle of the rotation guys who are overpaid is laughable.

Why do morons give money to these guys? :?:

FightingBillini
03-25-2005, 04:32 PM
Here's a gem...


David N. Townsend, Baseball Journal, April 2001:

"4. Seattle Mariners. The joy ride they've experienced since jettisoning both Randy Johnson and Junior Griffey will not continue following the loss of A-Rod. In the first place, they actually got decent compensation for the first two (Garcia, Guillen, Cameron), whereas the only new addition following Rodriguez's departure is Ichiro Suzuki, a glorified Triple-A hitter from Japan. Jamie Moyer is probably all done, and the pitchers who are supposed to be their salvation (Meche, Anderson) are all trapped in the doctor's office. Their best asset is their bullpen, which is ironic since in the past they won the Division with horrendous relief pitching. You can bet Piniella will find a way to screw up Nelson, Rhodes, et al."

WOW!!!
I can only hope Tadahito Iguchi turns out to be a glorified Triple-A hitter.

SoxWillWin
03-25-2005, 04:35 PM
I sent him a reply stating that I hope he will enjoy eating his words when the seasons over.......although it wasn't in such a nice tone.

mweflen
03-25-2005, 04:39 PM
First, there seems to be a strong bias to expect the Sox players to do well and, conversely, to downplay the other teams' players chances. That's natural, as we are immersed in the Sox. But any evaluation of other teams' players helps us glean some information.


I don't think finding a 71 win prediction outrageous based on last year's record and roster is "biased." I think it's a pretty reasonable, objective and defensible opinion to think this BP guy is seriously smoking one of these:
:bong:

The Racehorse
03-25-2005, 05:26 PM
I just emailed Joe Sheehan letting him know that some moron has his desktop password and is posting articles in BP while using his name as author. :cool:

DMarte708
03-25-2005, 06:03 PM
John is yet another online sabermetric baseball author whom continually finds ludicrous models of criticizes the White Sox. I swear, there must be a covenant of writers who've taken a oath to abide by "Moneyball" semantics, while becoming overly critical and vindicative of our team.

Has anyone written an article on Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Hardball Times which hasn't omitted atleast ONE major offseaon acquisition?

I'm interested in reading Sheenan's review of his overlord, Billy Beane's, Oakland Atheletics. Probably the usual, "They'll be better than anyone thinks," in addition to an escape clause (In the event of an Oakland meltdown) which states: "Give his aces a few years to mature. HE"S BILLY BEANE! Everything he does is correct. Mulder, Hudson, Zito took several years to find their form." Useless statistical forecasts supporting his prediction will undoubtedly fill out remainder of article.

infohawk
03-25-2005, 06:19 PM
I think the guys at BP can provide valuable information that contributes toward increased knowledge about players. I am always a little skeptical whenever they use data about players in order to draw a general conclusion about the performance of a team.

Case in point, here is what the 2004 edition of Baseball Prospectus had to say about the 2003 World Champion Florida Marlins.

"They were lucky.

There's no other way to say it, nor any shame in admitting it: the Marlins, a team few picked to contend and many picked to finish near the bottom of the league, won the 2003 World Series largely because of luck."

"But this wasn't your garden-variety brand of luck. We're talking three-hour run at the craps table, Jessica Alba just called and would love to have dinner with you Friday night good fortune."

I am also pretty sure that the 2003 Baseball Prospectus attributed the success of the 2002 World Series Champion Angels to luck as well. I intended to verify this claim, but my 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus isn't accessible right now.

Again, I think sabremetrics can be a valuable tool in evaluating players, but it too has limitations. I do believe in such a thing as team chemistry. Sabremetricians dismiss it because it is not scientific and therefore cannot be measured objectively. Chemistry, however, is an X factor that can really only make a significant difference if a team has a certain baseline talent. A talentless team won't overachieve because a bunch of guys like one another. A team with solid talent can be made or destroyed by chemistry.

Additionally, sabremetrics cannot factor in injuries to a team's (or divisional foes) starting players. The best sabremetricians can do is comment on a teams depth with such statistical tools as VORP and the like. Sabremetricians also don't have the luxury of anticipating major trades that occur before the July 31 trade deadline. Finally, sabremetrics can estimate how many wins a team will have based upon projected runs scored versus allowed, but cannot allow for how those runs are distributed. For example, the Sox pythagorean record has sometimes been much closer, if not sometimes better than, the pythagorean record of the Twins over the past few years. The Sox still lagged far behind because of the inconsistency of the run production. You can't score 10 runs one night and 1-3 over the next few games and expect to rack of enough wins. For all of these reasons, I am very skeptical of using sabremetrics to predict team performance.

Whitesox029
03-25-2005, 06:22 PM
WOW!!!
I can only hope Tadahito Iguchi turns out to be a glorified Triple-A hitter.
What is the meaning of this post?

fquaye149
03-25-2005, 06:51 PM
As I stated earlier, I find it to be an interesting analysis -- primarily for his views on the other teams. Like any prognostication, it could be entirely wrong or it could end up being brilliant. But it is information.

It seems to me that there are two tendencies on this board on how we tend to evaluate things.

First, there seems to be a strong bias to expect the Sox players to do well and, conversely, to downplay the other teams' players chances. That's natural, as we are immersed in the Sox. But any evaluation of other teams' players helps us glean some information.

Second, there seems to be a bias here toward players with established records. "Prospect" is almost a disparaging word at times. His (relatively glowing) comments about Cleveland are based upon the development of some very young players. They may do no better than last year, but, then again, they may simply be developing. It is worth watching.

Again, I'm not saying that this guy is brilliant. But I don't see the point of just trying to prove he's an idiot.

:dtroll: :dtroll: :dtroll: :troll


and no, I'm not just saying that because i disagree with you. I am saying that because this post is indicating you are either a troll or something less pleasant involving lack of cognition.

PM me if you really need to be informed why you are what you are. Let's not clog this thread.

santo=dorf
03-25-2005, 06:54 PM
What is the meaning of this post?
He's hoping Iguchi (or as DJ calls him, Taguchi :rolleyes: ) becomes a "glorified Triple-A hitter" much in the way that Ichiro did.

SoxWillWin
03-25-2005, 07:09 PM
I just emailed Joe Sheehan letting him know that some moron has his desktop password and is posting articles in BP while using his name as author. :cool::rolling:LOL

edit: I think he deserves this special award
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=2624

Banix12
03-25-2005, 07:30 PM
I think the guys at BP can provide valuable information that contributes toward increased knowledge about players. I am always a little skeptical whenever they use data about players in order to draw a general conclusion about the performance of a team.

Case in point, here is what the 2004 edition of Baseball Prospectus had to say about the 2003 World Champion Florida Marlins.

"They were lucky.

There's no other way to say it, nor any shame in admitting it: the Marlins, a team few picked to contend and many picked to finish near the bottom of the league, won the 2003 World Series largely because of luck."

"But this wasn't your garden-variety brand of luck. We're talking three-hour run at the craps table, Jessica Alba just called and would love to have dinner with you Friday night good fortune."

I am also pretty sure that the 2003 Baseball Prospectus attributed the success of the 2002 World Series Champion Angels to luck as well. I intended to verify this claim, but my 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus isn't accessible right now.

Again, I think sabremetrics can be a valuable tool in evaluating players, but it too has limitations. I do believe in such a thing as team chemistry. Sabremetricians dismiss it because it is not scientific and therefore cannot be measured objectively. Chemistry, however, is an X factor that can really only make a significant difference if a team has a certain baseline talent. A talentless team won't overachieve because a bunch of guys like one another. A team with solid talent can be made or destroyed by chemistry.

Additionally, sabremetrics cannot factor in injuries to a team's (or divisional foes) starting players. The best sabremetricians can do is comment on a teams depth with such statistical tools as VORP and the like. Sabremetricians also don't have the luxury of anticipating major trades that occur before the July 31 trade deadline. Finally, sabremetrics can estimate how many wins a team will have based upon projected runs scored versus allowed, but cannot allow for how those runs are distributed. For example, the Sox pythagorean record has sometimes been much closer, if not sometimes better than, the pythagorean record of the Twins over the past few years. The Sox still lagged far behind because of the inconsistency of the run production. You can't score 10 runs one night and 1-3 over the next few games and expect to rack of enough wins. For all of these reasons, I am very skeptical of using sabremetrics to predict team performance.


Good Post, you're right about the limitations to Sabremetrics and their unwillingness to believe things like Chemistry that can't be measured.

As for the Marlins and Angels being lucky. I think just about every team that makes it to the Series has to get a bit lucky, or even a lot lucky, to make it. What's the old saying, "I'd rather be lucky than good." Whether it's a matter of staying healthy, or players playing far above their ability, or just the ball bouncing the right way, winning teams often need a lot of luck to make it. Now teams like the Yankees can often buy luck to a point, but even then then the ball often has to bounce their way.

Hell, last year, in many ways you can attribute Boston's comeback against the Yankees to just a serious stroke of luck, where all of a sudden everything started to go right. The Cardinals had a great season, but looking at the average pitching they carried most of the season and the sudden re-emergence of Tony Womack as a leadoff man, they were a very lucky team.

So it could be fair to say that teams like the Marlins were lucky teams, but I don't like how they would use that as an excuse to almost downgrade their acheivement.

WikdChiSoxFan
03-25-2005, 07:31 PM
I just emailed Joe Sheehan letting him know that some moron has his desktop password and is posting articles in BP while using his name as author. :cool:

Absolutely hysterical. You chargin royalties on this one? I'm thinking it'll probably come in handy.

....and as for the article, this is why teachers and professors do not allow their students to cite websites.

garbage, garbage, garbage...

i can accept the lack of respect, but seriously...i mean, c'mon...i mean, jesus...i mean, what the heck?...i mean...pshhhh

:gulp: ...aaah, all better

The Racehorse
03-25-2005, 07:39 PM
Absolutely hysterical. You chargin royalties on this one? I'm thinking it'll probably come in handy.

In all honesty, I can't claim ownership to that line... with that said, have add it if you ever want to use it. :redneck

:)

balke
03-25-2005, 11:54 PM
I'm sure you've heard this enough from anyone that knows anything about baseball whatsoever, but your article makes you look like a complete moron. I'm not going to be a jerk and point out the grammatical errors, but come on man, did you write this in 5 minutes? These rosters have been set for a while, plenty of time to do your homework.

First off, how can you do a preview of the Tribe without pointing out how week the bullpen is? This was their main problem to fix all offseason, and they never did it. And how about losing Omar Vizquel? How about adding Millwood? These are big impacts to the team that you don't mention at all.

For the Tigers: How can you boast Bonderman as the next Ben Sheets? "About a year behind"? Bonderman was born in 1982, Sheets was born in 1978. The guy has good stuff, but if you are going to call someone that young to bust out with 268 k's at the age of 22, after topping out at 168, pass whatever it is you're smoking. Why don't you predict Jon Garland to do the same? He's ACTUALLY A YEAR BEHIND, and would be in the same miracle category as predicting a player with a lifetime ERA of 5.28 to have a "Ben Sheets-type" season.

White Sox:
"When signing Jermaine Dye to a two-year deal is the good move of the winter, it's a very bad sign. Actually, that shorts the pickup of Tadahito Iguchi, who was kind of a Japanese Ray Durham. Keep in mind that Durham had his last healthy, effective season at 29; Iguchi turned 30 in December."

Bro... come on. What does that even MEAN?! What's the matter, you couldn't find any stats on Iguchi? Ray Durham is one of the better 2nd baseman in the league as it is, so what does him having injury plagued career have to do with Iguchi? And when is having either of those 2 playing 2B a bad thing? A.J. Pierzynski joined the team this year by the way, I don't know if you knew that. An upgrade at catcher for the pitching staff and lineup.

Johan/Radke are the best 1-2 punch as pitchers. But I think you undervalue the play of Mark Buerhle and Garcia greatly. Buerhle is one of the top pitchers in the majors, an inning eater, a winner, a guy with a lifetime 3.78 ERA in a hitters ballpark. I believe he's better than Radke, and I believe Sabathia needs to be mentioned in the mix of pitchers.

Rowand wasn't attacked by an alien, you're definitely getting a little crazy there. I think there were many more aliens in the Tigers/Indians rosters last season. What this was written yesterday... so did you hear anything about Brandon Mccarthy for the White Sox? Yeah, he's a pitcher in the minors. He's 21 and has had an amazing spring, that could help thier cause.

The pick of The Twins repeating is a weak one in my opinion. You pointed several reasons in your article as to why. This will be a tight division between 3-4 teams. It's one thing to not like the central, its another to pretend to know something about the central and writing an article about them anyways. That's all I got.

I wrote an email. That's what I think.

Whitesox029
03-26-2005, 05:40 PM
He's hoping Iguchi (or as DJ calls him, Taguchi :rolleyes: ) becomes a "glorified Triple-A hitter" much in the way that Ichiro did.
Thanks santo=dorf...sorry Billini, I guess I should read quotes more throughly.
:redface:

Lip Man 1
03-26-2005, 08:39 PM
Two stories this week on Iguchi. The one in Sports Illustrated by Albert Chen was very complimentary. The one in the Sporting Nws (Scout's takes) wasn't very positive at all.


Lip

Tragg
03-27-2005, 10:30 AM
If Buehrle and Garcia are "mid rotation guys" and if Rowand's season last year was a fluke, then, indeed, they would be right, as we'd have a staff like the Indians, with pretty mediocre hitting.

The first assumption about MB and Garcia is totally ridiculous, and as for Rowand, we'll wait and see.

As for "luck" that's the excuse they always use when their theories don't pan out. The playoffs are luck, any team that wins without the sabermetrics is "lucky". How's that for science - our theory is correct - it's just unlucky that it rarely holds sway on the field year after year. It guess it's just luck that teams that are nothing but lucky win the WS as often as not.

Yes the cubans were "run out of New York." I can think of worse places to be run-out of: like Philly (millwood). And it might help that the Sox have a much deeper pen than the yanks had last year, such that they won't have to pray if the Cubans tire in the 6th inning, until the closer can appear.

Personally, I think Dye is a pretty mediocre player. That said, these guys weren't pounding on the As for having Dye; and they sure pounded Singleton when he was with the Sox, but when Beane acquired Singleton, they didn't call him a moron or have a negative word to say about the As outfield with Dye and Singleton - that's a much worse offensive outfield than we will have, under any scenario - but somehow the As won, at least until the bad luck happened in the playoffs. And Dotel - my goodness, anyone who actually watches baseball GAMES (as opposed to looking at stat sheets), knows that Dotel was terrible with the Astros, one of the worst closers in the game, good for a gopher ball in any ninth inning. Yet, "great acquisition".

SoxPostSeason
03-27-2005, 10:37 AM
i guess Jacque Jones is going to suck too just cuz he turning 30 this year just like Iguchi