PDA

View Full Version : ESPN.com's 2005 Outlook for Buehrle


Chicago83
03-10-2005, 02:09 AM
"Buehrle continues to handle a heavy workload and still hasn't shown serious signs of wear and tear. One good sign for future seasons is that he increased his ratio of strikeouts per nine innings to 6.1 last season after it had dropped the three previous years. His mind seems free after signing a long-term contract, which has allowed his leadership skills to blossom. He remains a better bet for 16-18 wins and 225-plus innings than anyone else in the American League."

batmanZoSo
03-10-2005, 10:08 AM
"Buehrle continues to handle a heavy workload and still hasn't shown serious signs of wear and tear. One good sign for future seasons is that he increased his ratio of strikeouts per nine innings to 6.1 last season after it had dropped the three previous years. His mind seems free after signing a long-term contract, which has allowed his leadership skills to blossom. He remains a better bet for 16-18 wins and 225-plus innings than anyone else in the American League."

I don't think that Cy Young is out of the question for him with some luck and run support, which hopefully this new offense will be able to do more consistently. All it takes is a little more help from his teammates to get him over that 17 win hump and push that up to 20 or 21.

veeter
03-10-2005, 10:31 AM
If Buerhle were a Cub, Yankee or Red Sox the press would be all over him. He is without a doubt the most underappreciated starter in baseball.

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 10:32 AM
I don't think that Cy Young is out of the question for him with some luck and run support, which hopefully this new offense will be able to do more consistently. All it takes is a little more help from his teammates to get him over that 17 win hump and push that up to 20 or 21.

I can't imagine a Sox pitcher winning a Cy Young as long as balls are still flying out of the Cell at such a high rate. It would take a special kind of pitcher to be able to win a Cy Young while calling this park their home. Buehrle had a 3.89 ERA last year. Even if he gets 20 wins, that's not a Cy Young winning ERA. Even if Santana drops off a little, he's still a favorite to win it. RJ will see an increase to his ERA, but he should still be in the low 3's, if not the high 2's. Schilling, if healthy, has to be considered a leading candidate. Unless Buehrle can keep his home ERA down, he's not going to be a top candidate. That's nothing against him. He's still a top pitcher. He's just not Cy Young worthy at this point.

crazyozzie02
03-10-2005, 10:34 AM
I think that there is nothing holding Burhele back. After signing the contract and ending the rumors that he was thinking/wanting to go to St Louis, he can settle down and hopefully become the undisputed ace of the Sox starting rotation. There is nothing but bad luck holding him for getting +20 wins, and its only a matter of time before our home-grown star brings a Cy Young Award to town, along with that shiney gold World Series Title :bandance:

Ol' No. 2
03-10-2005, 10:38 AM
I can't imagine a Sox pitcher winning a Cy Young as long as balls are still flying out of the Cell at such a high rate. It would take a special kind of pitcher to be able to win a Cy Young while calling this park their home. Buehrle had a 3.89 ERA last year. Even if he gets 20 wins, that's not a Cy Young winning ERA. Even if Santana drops off a little, he's still a favorite to win it. RJ will see an increase to his ERA, but he should still be in the low 3's, if not the high 2's. Schilling, if healthy, has to be considered a leading candidate. Unless Buehrle can keep his home ERA down, he's not going to be a top candidate. That's nothing against him. He's still a top pitcher. He's just not Cy Young worthy at this point.I think if he has a good year and leads the AL in wins, he might have a good shot, ERA be damned. He'd probably need 21-22 wins, though.

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 10:53 AM
I think if he has a good year and leads the AL in wins, he might have a good shot, ERA be damned. He'd probably need 21-22 wins, though.

He's still going to need to get that ERA down. If he gets 21 wins, and Santana/RJ/Schilling/etc. get around 19 with an ERA nearly a .75-1 run lower, the extra two wins won't make up the difference. Any way you slice it, a high 3's ERA won't win the Cy Young. Look back at the Cy Young award winners over the past years. You'll be hard pressed to find a winner with an ERA in the 3's, much less the high 3's. The ones that you can find:

- Roger Clemens in 2001. He had a 3.51 ERA, but had a great W/L record of 20-3. If Buehrle only loses, 3, he might have a shot.
- Hentgen in 1996 had a 3.22 ERA with a 20-10 record.
- Black Jack in 1993 had a 3.37 ERA, with a 22-10 record
- Lamar Hoyt in 1984 had a 3.66 ERA but won 24 games with 10 loses

Those are the only four pitchers you'll find over the past 20 years that won a Cy Young with an ERA over 3. Clemens amazing record with 20 wins and only 3 loses won it for him. Hoyt had 24 wins. Hentgen was the only AL starter that really stood out in 1996. By comparison, Andy Pettitte put together a year similar to what we are talking about Buehrle putting up. Pettitte was 21-8 with a 3.87 ERA. That got him 2nd place, mainly because no other starter had a low 3's ERA. Black Jack is maybe the best support for Buehrle over recent years. He did win 22 games with a 3.37 ERA. RJ bested him in every category except wins where RJ had a 19-8 record. That's probably the best case to support Buehrle having a chance. Still, it's an outside chance at that. He just has to get that ERA down or hope the top 3 candidates all have down years. The latter isn't likely, so he has to make it the former to have a chance.

Ol' No. 2
03-10-2005, 11:00 AM
He's still going to need to get that ERA down. If he gets 21 wins, and Santana/RJ/Schilling/etc. get around 19 with an ERA nearly a .75-1 run lower, the extra two wins won't make up the difference. Any way you slice it, a high 3's ERA won't win the Cy Young. Look back at the Cy Young award winners over the past years. You'll be hard pressed to find a winner with an ERA in the 3's, much less the high 3's. The ones that you can find:

- Roger Clemens in 2001. He had a 3.51 ERA, but had a great W/L record of 20-3. If Buehrle only loses, 3, he might have a shot.
- Hentgen in 1996 had a 3.22 ERA with a 20-10 record.
- Black Jack in 1993 had a 3.37 ERA, with a 22-10 record
- Lamar Hoyt in 1984 had a 3.66 ERA but won 24 games with 10 loses

Those are the only four pitchers you'll find over the past 20 years that won a Cy Young with an ERA over 3. Clemens amazing record with 20 wins and only 3 loses won it for him. Hoyt had 24 wins. Hentgen was the only AL starter that really stood out in 1996. By comparison, Andy Pettitte put together a year similar to what we are talking about Buehrle putting up. Pettitte was 21-8 with a 3.87 ERA. That got him 2nd place, mainly because no other starter had a low 3's ERA. Black Jack is maybe the best support for Buehrle over recent years. He did win 22 games with a 3.37 ERA. RJ bested him in every category except wins where RJ had a 19-8 record. That's probably the best case to support Buehrle having a chance. Still, it's an outside chance at that. He just has to get that ERA down or hope the top 3 candidates all have down years. The latter isn't likely, so he has to make it the former to have a chance.Halladay beat out Loaiza in 2003 despite having a higher ERA (3.25 v. 2.90), and fewer SO/IP. But he won one more game. More importantly, Loaiza faded in September, which may have hurt him more than anything.

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 11:04 AM
Halladay beat out Loaiza in 2003 despite having a higher ERA (3.25 v. 2.90), and fewer SO/IP. But he won one more game. More importantly, Loaiza faded in September, which may have hurt him more than anything.

Still, we're not talking about an ERA in the high 3's. My point isn't that he'll have a higher ERA, it's that his higher ERA will likely be in the mid-to-upper 3's. An ERA in the high 3's just isn't Cy Young worthy unless every other starter has a bad year. That isn't likely with the likes of Santana, RJ and Schilling pitching in the AL. All three of those pitchers should have ERAs in the low 3's or 2's. That's a Cy Young worthy ERA. To win a Cy Young with an ERA around 3.70, you're going to need a lot of help and you're going to have to have a significantly higher win total.

Ol' No. 2
03-10-2005, 11:11 AM
Still, we're not talking about an ERA in the high 3's. My point isn't that he'll have a higher ERA, it's that his higher ERA will likely be in the mid-to-upper 3's. An ERA in the high 3's just isn't Cy Young worthy unless every other starter has a bad year. That isn't likely with the likes of Santana, RJ and Schilling pitching in the AL. All three of those pitchers should have ERAs in the low 3's or 2's. That's a Cy Young worthy ERA. To win a Cy Young with an ERA around 3.70, you're going to need a lot of help and you're going to have to have a significantly higher win total.I agree with that. But what's a significantly higher win total? It will depend on the other pitchers' performances. Also, 20 wins is a magic number. If he's the only 20+ game winner, I think he could win it even with a ERA in the high 3's. I certainly wouldn't say he's the favorite, but with 21-22 wins, he'd have a decent shot.

PorkChopExpress
03-10-2005, 11:33 AM
Halladay beat out Loaiza in 2003 despite having a higher ERA (3.25 v. 2.90), and fewer SO/IP. But he won one more game. More importantly, Loaiza faded in September, which may have hurt him more than anything.

Not only did Loaiza fade in September, but Halladay seemed to be getting stronger. IIRC, Halladay had back to back complete games to add to his 9 complete games with 2 shutouts as opposed to Loaiza's 1 complete game and no shutouts.

voodoochile
03-10-2005, 11:53 AM
He's still going to need to get that ERA down. If he gets 21 wins, and Santana/RJ/Schilling/etc. get around 19 with an ERA nearly a .75-1 run lower, the extra two wins won't make up the difference. Any way you slice it, a high 3's ERA won't win the Cy Young. Look back at the Cy Young award winners over the past years. You'll be hard pressed to find a winner with an ERA in the 3's, much less the high 3's. The ones that you can find:

- Roger Clemens in 2001. He had a 3.51 ERA, but had a great W/L record of 20-3. If Buehrle only loses, 3, he might have a shot.
- Hentgen in 1996 had a 3.22 ERA with a 20-10 record.
- Black Jack in 1993 had a 3.37 ERA, with a 22-10 record
- Lamar Hoyt in 1984 had a 3.66 ERA but won 24 games with 10 loses

Those are the only four pitchers you'll find over the past 20 years that won a Cy Young with an ERA over 3. Clemens amazing record with 20 wins and only 3 loses won it for him. Hoyt had 24 wins. Hentgen was the only AL starter that really stood out in 1996. By comparison, Andy Pettitte put together a year similar to what we are talking about Buehrle putting up. Pettitte was 21-8 with a 3.87 ERA. That got him 2nd place, mainly because no other starter had a low 3's ERA. Black Jack is maybe the best support for Buehrle over recent years. He did win 22 games with a 3.37 ERA. RJ bested him in every category except wins where RJ had a 19-8 record. That's probably the best case to support Buehrle having a chance. Still, it's an outside chance at that. He just has to get that ERA down or hope the top 3 candidates all have down years. The latter isn't likely, so he has to make it the former to have a chance.

One of the major points here is that all of those guys won 20 games or more. It's a magic number for voters. If Buehrle is the only 20 game winner this season, it will stick out to the voters.

voodoochile
03-10-2005, 11:53 AM
I agree with that. But what's a significantly higher win total? It will depend on the other pitchers' performances. Also, 20 wins is a magic number. If he's the only 20+ game winner, I think he could win it even with a ERA in the high 3's. I certainly wouldn't say he's the favorite, but with 21-22 wins, he'd have a decent shot.

You beat me to it. I swear I didn't read your post before I submitted my last one.

mrwag
03-10-2005, 12:07 PM
I bet if the Sox make post-season, Cy Young would more attainable, even with a higher ERA.

Fredsox
03-10-2005, 12:17 PM
I bet if the Sox make post-season, Cy Young would more attainable, even with a higher ERA.

Bingo! It has to be a combination of his success and the team's success. If the Sox win the division and he has 20~ wins, he'll have as much a chance as anyone.

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 12:20 PM
One of the major points here is that all of those guys won 20 games or more. It's a magic number for voters. If Buehrle is the only 20 game winner this season, it will stick out to the voters.

True, somewhat. 20 wins is nice, but if you're winning 20 games with an ERA of 3.70, it doesn't mean as much. If Santana wins 19 and has a 2.80 ERA, guess who is going to win. With a 3.70 ERA, he's going to have to win 22 or more to stand out over someone with a 2.70 ERA.

fquaye149
03-10-2005, 01:58 PM
True, somewhat. 20 wins is nice, but if you're winning 20 games with an ERA of 3.70, it doesn't mean as much. If Santana wins 19 and has a 2.80 ERA, guess who is going to win. With a 3.70 ERA, he's going to have to win 22 or more to stand out over someone with a 2.70 ERA.

I wouldn't assume a 3.70 if he wins 20. Especially since his run support is likely to go down this year.

We're talking about a 2.70 19 win Santana (or whoever) v. a 3.20-3.50 20+win Buehrle.

Do NOT underestimate the 20 win mark as others have pointed out in this thread.

Foulke29
03-10-2005, 02:23 PM
He's still going to need to get that ERA down. If he gets 21 wins, and Santana/RJ/Schilling/etc. get around 19 with an ERA nearly a .75-1 run lower, the extra two wins won't make up the difference. Any way you slice it, a high 3's ERA won't win the Cy Young. Look back at the Cy Young award winners over the past years. You'll be hard pressed to find a winner with an ERA in the 3's, much less the high 3's.

Winning the division would go much further than having an ERA under three if he gets 22 to 25 wins.

Foulke29
03-10-2005, 02:24 PM
Do NOT underestimate the 20 win mark as others have pointed out in this thread.

Do not underestimate the winning the division mark.

owensmouth
03-10-2005, 02:35 PM
He needs to cut back on the number of home runs allowed. Last year he had a 50 percent increase. That will keep him from the Cy Young award

batmanZoSo
03-10-2005, 02:56 PM
I can't imagine a Sox pitcher winning a Cy Young as long as balls are still flying out of the Cell at such a high rate. It would take a special kind of pitcher to be able to win a Cy Young while calling this park their home. Buehrle had a 3.89 ERA last year. Even if he gets 20 wins, that's not a Cy Young winning ERA. Even if Santana drops off a little, he's still a favorite to win it. RJ will see an increase to his ERA, but he should still be in the low 3's, if not the high 2's. Schilling, if healthy, has to be considered a leading candidate. Unless Buehrle can keep his home ERA down, he's not going to be a top candidate. That's nothing against him. He's still a top pitcher. He's just not Cy Young worthy at this point.

Like Voodoo said, the magic number is 20, 3.89 era or not (which is a great AL era no matter where you play, and all the more impressive when you consider where Buehrle did play). 20-9 with a 3.89 is enough to win it for him. And looking back, don't you think Buehrle could've won three more games with a little more help? Easily. Of course if there are 3 or 4 20 game winners beside him, ERA would be the deciding factor and Buehrle would probably lose on account of his Cell-inflated ERA. But I disagree that he can't win it. He's totally worthy in my opinion.

StillMissOzzie
03-10-2005, 03:34 PM
- Roger Clemens in 2001. He had a 3.51 ERA, but had a great W/L record of 20-3. If Buehrle only loses, 3, he might have a shot.
- Hentgen in 1996 had a 3.22 ERA with a 20-10 record.
- Black Jack in 1993 had a 3.37 ERA, with a 22-10 record
- Lamar Hoyt in 1984 had a 3.66 ERA but won 24 games with 10 loses


And as a reminder, Hoyt didn't even have the best winning percentage on the White Sox staff (Rich Dotson), but he did have the most wins and a ridiculously low number of walks.

Edit: 31 BB's in 260 2/3 IP

SMO
:gulp:

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 05:23 PM
Like Voodoo said, the magic number is 20, 3.89 era or not (which is a great AL era no matter where you play, and all the more impressive when you consider where Buehrle did play). 20-9 with a 3.89 is enough to win it for him. And looking back, don't you think Buehrle could've won three more games with a little more help? Easily. Of course if there are 3 or 4 20 game winners beside him, ERA would be the deciding factor and Buehrle would probably lose on account of his Cell-inflated ERA. But I disagree that he can't win it. He's totally worthy in my opinion.

But 20 wins doesn't give you a Cy Young. You still need a good ERA and 3.89 isn't Cy Young worthy. Something else worth considering is that Buehrle isn't a strikeout pitcher like RJ, Schilling and Santana. Their K's will give them an added edge. There are plenty of recent examples of 20-game winners losing the Cy Young award because of their ERA.

2004 - Curt Schilling wins 21 games. Santana wins 20. But Santana posts a 2.61 ERA while Schilling posts a 3.26. In the NL, Roger Clemens goes 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA. Oswalt goes 20-10 with a 3.49 ERA. Clemens wins.
2003 - Russ Ortiz wins 21 games, but loses the Cy to Gagne, who deserved it. Not only did Ortiz lose the Cy Young award, he finished 4th. Why? Because he had a 3.82 ERA. In 2nd place, Jason Schmidt with a 17-5 record and a 2.34 ERA. In 3rd place, Mark Prior with an 18-6 record and a 2.43 ERA.
2000 - Pedro wins with an 18-6 record and a 1.74 ERA. Behind him are two 20-game winners with ERAs in the 4's. In the NL, Randy Johnson goes 19-7 with a 2.64 ERA. Tom Glavine wins 21 games but has a 2.40 ERA. Good enough for 2nd place. Daryl Kile wins 20 games but has a 3.91 ERA, putting him in 5th place.
1999 - RJ goes 17-9 with a 2.48 ERA. Mike Hampton goes 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA. RJ wins the Cy.
1998 - Roger Clemens goes 20-6. David Cone goes 20-7. Clemens wins the award while Cone finishes 4th. Clemens has a 2.65 ERA. Cone a 3.55 ERA.
1997 - Pedro wins the award with 17 wins, but a 1.90 ERA. Denny Neagle wins 20 but finishes 3rd with his 2.97 ERA.
1996 - Andy Pettitte wins 21 games, Hengen 20. Pettitte has a 3.87 ERA, though while Hentgen has a 3.22.

I could go on, but that's enough to show the point. 20 wins doesn't guarantee you a Cy Young if your ERA is significantly higher than your challengers.

voodoochile
03-10-2005, 05:57 PM
But 20 wins doesn't give you a Cy Young. You still need a good ERA and 3.89 isn't Cy Young worthy. Something else worth considering is that Buehrle isn't a strikeout pitcher like RJ, Schilling and Santana. Their K's will give them an added edge. There are plenty of recent examples of 20-game winners losing the Cy Young award because of their ERA.

2004 - Curt Schilling wins 21 games. Santana wins 20. But Santana posts a 2.61 ERA while Schilling posts a 3.26. In the NL, Roger Clemens goes 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA. Oswalt goes 20-10 with a 3.49 ERA. Clemens wins.
2003 - Russ Ortiz wins 21 games, but loses the Cy to Gagne, who deserved it. Not only did Ortiz lose the Cy Young award, he finished 4th. Why? Because he had a 3.82 ERA. In 2nd place, Jason Schmidt with a 17-5 record and a 2.34 ERA. In 3rd place, Mark Prior with an 18-6 record and a 2.43 ERA.
2000 - Pedro wins with an 18-6 record and a 1.74 ERA. Behind him are two 20-game winners with ERAs in the 4's. In the NL, Randy Johnson goes 19-7 with a 2.64 ERA. Tom Glavine wins 21 games but has a 2.40 ERA. Good enough for 2nd place. Daryl Kile wins 20 games but has a 3.91 ERA, putting him in 5th place.
1999 - RJ goes 17-9 with a 2.48 ERA. Mike Hampton goes 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA. RJ wins the Cy.
1998 - Roger Clemens goes 20-6. David Cone goes 20-7. Clemens wins the award while Cone finishes 4th. Clemens has a 2.65 ERA. Cone a 3.55 ERA.
1997 - Pedro wins the award with 17 wins, but a 1.90 ERA. Denny Neagle wins 20 but finishes 3rd with his 2.97 ERA.
1996 - Andy Pettitte wins 21 games, Hengen 20. Pettitte has a 3.87 ERA, though while Hentgen has a 3.22.

I could go on, but that's enough to show the point. 20 wins doesn't guarantee you a Cy Young if your ERA is significantly higher than your challengers.

Hampton clearly got jobbed by the voters, IMO. The rest of them there are mitigating circumstances (ridiculously low loss totals and big ERA differentials).

In cases where both players win 20 or more games, it is more likely to come down to ERA, but in many cases, being the only 20 game winner will be a huge advantage to winning the CY.

Jjav829
03-10-2005, 06:37 PM
Hampton clearly got jobbed by the voters, IMO. The rest of them there are mitigating circumstances (ridiculously low loss totals and big ERA differentials).

In cases where both players win 20 or more games, it is more likely to come down to ERA, but in many cases, being the only 20 game winner will be a huge advantage to winning the CY.

That's my point, though! That's what I've been saying this whole time. There is likely to be a big ERA differential between Buehrle and the rest of the candidates. Sure, if Buehrle posts a 3.20 ERA and the other candidates are all around 3, then Buehrle's extra win or two might be enough. But if you go by his career averages, and the ERA he is likely to put up - which is around 3.70 - 20 wins won't matter unless everyone else tanks. If RJ has 19 wins and a 2.95 ERA, RJ wins. Same for each other candidate. This has been my whole point. A big ERA differential, which is likely going to happen, will cost Buehrle even if he wins 20. You simply can make up for a .75-1 run difference, even if you win 20, as long as the other candidate is around 18 wins.

gosox3072
03-10-2005, 08:24 PM
If burhle finishes in the top 5 for cy young this year i will be happy........20 wins + will go a long way to taking down minnesota

fquaye149
03-11-2005, 05:04 AM
That's my point, though! That's what I've been saying this whole time. There is likely to be a big ERA differential between Buehrle and the rest of the candidates. Sure, if Buehrle posts a 3.20 ERA and the other candidates are all around 3, then Buehrle's extra win or two might be enough. But if you go by his career averages, and the ERA he is likely to put up - which is around 3.70 - 20 wins won't matter unless everyone else tanks. If RJ has 19 wins and a 2.95 ERA, RJ wins. Same for each other candidate. This has been my whole point. A big ERA differential, which is likely going to happen, will cost Buehrle even if he wins 20. You simply can make up for a .75-1 run difference, even if you win 20, as long as the other candidate is around 18 wins.

I think deep down you're right...I guess if Buehrle wins 20 some games with a 3.30 ERA I'd love it if he won the cy young, but if like Loaiza he loses to someone else, I wouldn't mind all that much - as long as he puts up the numbers for us and helps us out as much as he can...

Mohoney
03-11-2005, 06:39 AM
I can't imagine a Sox pitcher winning a Cy Young as long as balls are still flying out of the Cell at such a high rate. It would take a special kind of pitcher to be able to win a Cy Young while calling this park their home. Buehrle had a 3.89 ERA last year. Even if he gets 20 wins, that's not a Cy Young winning ERA. Even if Santana drops off a little, he's still a favorite to win it. RJ will see an increase to his ERA, but he should still be in the low 3's, if not the high 2's. Schilling, if healthy, has to be considered a leading candidate. Unless Buehrle can keep his home ERA down, he's not going to be a top candidate. That's nothing against him. He's still a top pitcher. He's just not Cy Young worthy at this point.

I don't know. 20+ wins with 7 or less losses, a sub-4 ERA, leading the AL in IP, and being somewhere in the top 5 in Ks or Ks/9 might be enough to get it over Santana IF the Sox run away with the AL Central.

Stroker Ace
03-11-2005, 07:42 PM
Buehrle will have 20 wins this year besause the Sox won't have the power outages they had in the past that caused Buehrle to have no run support.

fusillirob1983
03-11-2005, 07:53 PM
Buehrle will have 20 wins this year besause the Sox won't have the power outages they had in the past that caused Buehrle to have no run support.

Despite the power outages, Buerhle had some of the best run support in the AL last season. So I guess the power outages came with other guys on the mound.

Ol' No. 2
03-11-2005, 08:19 PM
Despite the power outages, Buerhle had some of the best run support in the AL last season. So I guess the power outages came with other guys on the mound.Not so. Most of the high run support came in a few games. In back to back starts in May he beat Baltimore 15-0 and Minnesota 11-0. Great run support, but that's not why he won.

owensmouth
03-11-2005, 09:38 PM
Not so. Most of the high run support came in a few games. In back to back starts in May he beat Baltimore 15-0 and Minnesota 11-0. Great run support, but that's not why he won.

He also was left in a couple of games because of the Sox ability to score more runs than the other team.

Ol' No. 2
03-11-2005, 09:46 PM
He also was left in a couple of games because of the Sox ability to score more runs than the other team.Among AL pitchers with at least 25 starts, Buehrle was 5th in percentage of quality starts. He had ZERO "cheap wins" (wins in which he did not have a quality start) and 4 "tough losses" (losses in which he did have a quality start). Based on those two numbers, I don't know how you could infer his win total was inflated by run support.