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View Full Version : Baseball Prospectus Analysis of White Sox and SB


SoxFan48
03-08-2005, 11:06 AM
Absolutely fascinating read on SB success rates and runs produced versus runs lost because of SBs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3806

Analysis of last season was that Sox cost themselves 14 runs (or 1.4 runs) with errant base stealing. The article suggests the Sox will do themselves well this year running using last year's success rates and keeping Uribe off the basepaths.

Ol' No. 2
03-08-2005, 11:34 AM
Absolutely fascinating read on SB success rates and runs produced versus runs lost because of SBs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3806

Analysis of last season was that Sox cost themselves 14 runs (or 1.4 runs) with errant base stealing. The article suggests the Sox will do themselves well this year running using last year's success rates and keeping Uribe off the basepaths.These guys keep making the same mistake. They take some global scoring probabilities and calculate a minumum required SB%. But the mistake is in applying the global averages as if every team and every situation was the same. If you want to determine the SB success rate required for break-even, don't you think it matters who's following the guy in the batting order? Stealing bases is a lot less desirable when you have a Frank Thomas at the plate than if you have Joe Borchard at the plate. But they never account for that. They just assume it all averages out, but it doesn't.

BridgePortNative
03-08-2005, 11:39 AM
What about Iguchi and his 2 SB titles:?: