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MRKARNO
03-07-2005, 11:16 PM
Who would you say are the top 12 starters in our division? My picks:

1. Johan Santana (Is there any question?)
2. Mark Buerhle (Possibly the most underrated pitcher in baseball)
3. Zack Greinke (Could be the next Greg Maddux)
4 (tie). Brad Radke
4 (tie). Freddy Garcia (Hard to differentiate between these two. Radke's got the control and Garcia's got the better stuff)
6. CC Sabathia (We've been waiting for him to take the next step for 3 years now)
7. Orlando Hernandez (If he can stay healthy, he might be even higher)
8. Carlos Silva (has Buehrle-esque ability to get by w/o K's and w/a high BAA due to low BBs, but a K/9 of 3 is extremely worrisome)
9. Kevin Millwood (Should be solid, if nothing else)
10. Jose Contreras (Stuff second best to Johan in the division. A drop in the walk total would put him way higher)
11. Jake Westbrook (3.38 ERA last year was smoke and mirrors. A 1-1.5 run rise should be counted on)
12. Jon Garland (Offensive nature of US Cellular hurt him last year. An average, but dependable starter)

popilius
03-07-2005, 11:33 PM
Who would you say are the top 12 starters in our division? My picks:

1. Johan Santana (Is there any question?)
2. Mark Buerhle (Possibly the most underrated pitcher in baseball)
3. Zack Greinke (Could be the next Greg Maddux)
4 (tie). Brad Radke
4 (tie). Freddy Garcia (Hard to differentiate between these two. Radke's got the control and Garcia's got the better stuff)
6. CC Sabathia (We've been waiting for him to take the next step for 3 years now)
7. Orlando Hernandez (If he can stay healthy, he might be even higher)
8. Carlos Silva (has Buehrle-esque ability to get by w/o K's and w/a high BAA due to low BBs, but a K/9 of 3 is extremely worrisome)
9. Kevin Millwood (Should be solid, if nothing else)
10. Jose Contreras (Stuff second best to Johan in the division. A drop in the walk total would put him way higher)
11. Jake Westbrook (3.38 ERA last year was smoke and mirrors. A 1-1.5 run rise should be counted on)
12. Jon Garland (Offensive nature of US Cellular hurt him last year. An average, but dependable starter)

Good job on this list. . . but overall, I'd disagree with putting Silva ahead Millwood, Contrereas and Westbrook. Also, Greinke will be a very good pitcher, but I'd rank Sabathia higher at this point. All in all, this list shows that the Sox' starting rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the AL. :gulp:

MRKARNO
03-07-2005, 11:42 PM
Good job on this list. . . but overall, I'd disagree with putting Silva ahead Millwood, Contrereas and Westbrook. Also, Greinke will be a very good pitcher, but I'd rank Sabathia higher at this point. All in all, this list shows that the Sox' starting rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the AL. :gulp:

Silva might've been a little high, but I think he'll continue to have success if he pitches smart like he did last year, and if he does, his ranking is well deserved.

On Greinke, he did more in his rookie season than Sabathia's done in 3 of his four major league seasons. I am sticking by that ranking as the 3.85 K/BB ratio along with the 6.21 K/9 are harbigners of things to come. Additionally, all the scouts rave about his control and his smarts for someone at his age. He changes speeds like none other as well. His performance last year and the prospects for his improving this year warrant that ranking IMO.

SoxFan76
03-07-2005, 11:45 PM
No respect for the Kittens? :D:

MRKARNO
03-07-2005, 11:48 PM
No respect for the Kittens? :D:

You could probably argue Bonderman deserves to be on this list, but he wouldnt be very high on it and he'd be the only one to make it.

Jjav829
03-08-2005, 02:20 AM
I'd go:

1. Johan Santana - Obvious
2. Mark Buehrle - Again, pretty obvious.
3. Zack Greinke - He gets this based on potential more than established success.
4. Brad Radke - We'll see if last year was a fluke. His recent success moves him up the list.
5. Freddy Garcia - Similar to Radke. We'll see if last year was a fluke. His pre-cell performance puts him at this point.
6. C.C. Sabathia - Regressed last year after losing weight. Maybe he should put it back on...
It falls off a bit after that...
7. Jeremy Bonderman - This is based largely on potential. He seemed to take a big step forward after the All-Star break. We'll see if he can continue that.
8. Orlando Hernandez - Tough to put him here considering all the questions, but what he did last year when healthy was impressive.
9. Kevin Millwood - Should bounce back from an off year to become a solid middle of the rotation type starter.
10. Jake Westbrook - We'll disagree here because I don't see his ERA going up a run and a half. I'd expect some increase, but I think he'll be around 4.
11. Carlos Silva - Where's the consistency? If he finds it, he'll be a solid starter.
12. Wil Ledezma - Could actually make the jump to a good starter quicker than Bonderman.

Stroker Ace
03-09-2005, 02:29 AM
Good list

JRIG
03-09-2005, 07:22 AM
Who would you say are the top 12 starters in our division? My picks:

1. Johan Santana (Is there any question?)
2. Mark Buerhle (Possibly the most underrated pitcher in baseball)
3. Zack Greinke (Could be the next Greg Maddux)
4 (tie). Brad Radke
4 (tie). Freddy Garcia (Hard to differentiate between these two. Radke's got the control and Garcia's got the better stuff)
6. CC Sabathia (We've been waiting for him to take the next step for 3 years now)
7. Orlando Hernandez (If he can stay healthy, he might be even higher)
8. Carlos Silva (has Buehrle-esque ability to get by w/o K's and w/a high BAA due to low BBs, but a K/9 of 3 is extremely worrisome)
9. Kevin Millwood (Should be solid, if nothing else)
10. Jose Contreras (Stuff second best to Johan in the division. A drop in the walk total would put him way higher)
11. Jake Westbrook (3.38 ERA last year was smoke and mirrors. A 1-1.5 run rise should be counted on)
12. Jon Garland (Offensive nature of US Cellular hurt him last year. An average, but dependable starter)

Brad Radke is very underrarted here and virtually everywhere. He doesn't have the gaudy K totals but he throws strikes, doesn't make mistakes, and rarely walks anybody. He certainly at worst the third best starter in the division. I love Greinke as much as anyone, but frankly, if his career turned out as good as Radke's it'd be a great story. In many ways they are very similar pitchers.

rowand33
03-09-2005, 12:28 PM
Brad Radke is very underrarted here and virtually everywhere. He doesn't have the gaudy K totals but he throws strikes, doesn't make mistakes, and rarely walks anybody. He certainly at worst the third best starter in the division. I love Greinke as much as anyone, but frankly, if his career turned out as good as Radke's it'd be a great story. In many ways they are very similar pitchers.

Radke is very, very overrated everywhere.

Dude had one good year out of the last like 6! 4.49 ERA in 03. 4.72 in 02.

He's a old, reliable guy, and is certainly a good pitcher. But is he the 3rd best pitcher in this division? hell no.

Flight #24
03-09-2005, 12:40 PM
Brad Radke is very underrarted here and virtually everywhere. He doesn't have the gaudy K totals but he throws strikes, doesn't make mistakes, and rarely walks anybody. He certainly at worst the third best starter in the division. I love Greinke as much as anyone, but frankly, if his career turned out as good as Radke's it'd be a great story. In many ways they are very similar pitchers.

Apparently more than his teamamtes given the recent comments from Royals camp....

For discussion purposes, here's 3 pitchers 3-year splits:

A: 550.1IP / 4.14ERA / 1.22WHIP
B: 714.2IP / 3.87ERA / 1.28WHIP
C: 635IP / 4.24ERA / 1.28WHIP

They're all pretty close, right? Well A is Radke, B is Buehrle, C is Garcia. Given the closeness in stats, I'd lean towards the guys who've put up the #s with significantly higher IP, which would be Freddy & Mark.

For the statheads out there, baseball-reference has Freddy & Brad as having career ERA+ of 114 while Mark's is 125.

Foulke29
03-09-2005, 01:11 PM
You do realize that Joe Mays would be number one on the list if he could have 35+ starts against the White Sox.

JRIG
03-09-2005, 01:13 PM
Radke is very, very overrated everywhere.

Dude had one good year out of the last like 6! 4.49 ERA in 03. 4.72 in 02.

He's a old, reliable guy, and is certainly a good pitcher. But is he the 3rd best pitcher in this division? hell no.

Well, he's only 32. He was hurt in 2002 and before that put up ERAs of 3.94, 4.45, and 3.75.

But, I guess he is much worse than the guy who had ERAs of 4.51 in 2003 and 4.39 in '02 pitching in an extreme pitcher's park.

That would be Freddy Garcia.

JRIG
03-09-2005, 01:15 PM
Apparently more than his teamamtes given the recent comments from Royals camp....

For discussion purposes, here's 3 pitchers 3-year splits:

A: 550.1IP / 4.14ERA / 1.22WHIP
B: 714.2IP / 3.87ERA / 1.28WHIP
C: 635IP / 4.24ERA / 1.28WHIP

They're all pretty close, right? Well A is Radke, B is Buehrle, C is Garcia. Given the closeness in stats, I'd lean towards the guys who've put up the #s with significantly higher IP, which would be Freddy & Mark.

For the statheads out there, baseball-reference has Freddy & Brad as having career ERA+ of 114 while Mark's is 125.

I don't want to come off as a Twins-defender, but Radke's IP is down because he was injured in 2002. Add 100 IP and here's right in between Buehrle and Garcia. In terms of quality all are fairly similar. At least for this year. This is not a question of "who would you rather have," because obviously the younger guys are the correct choices there if we're projecting down the road.

MRKARNO
03-09-2005, 01:28 PM
I don't want to come off as a Twins-defender, but Radke's IP is down because he was injured in 2002. Add 100 IP and here's right in between Buehrle and Garcia. In terms of quality all are fairly similar. At least for this year. This is not a question of "who would you rather have," because obviously the younger guys are the correct choices there if we're projecting down the road.

It's my opinion that Greinke is already as good or better than Radke. Now maybe last year he wasn't, but history shows us that Radke's year last year was out of step with his career. Greinke, on the other hand, performed better than an average Radke season in his first major league season.

Flight #24
03-09-2005, 01:29 PM
I don't want to come off as a Twins-defender, but Radke's IP is down because he was injured in 2002. Add 100 IP and here's right in between Buehrle and Garcia. In terms of quality all are fairly similar. At least for this year. This is not a question of "who would you rather have," because obviously the younger guys are the correct choices there if we're projecting down the road.

My point was that IMO it looks pretty good to rate Buehrle above Radke (albiet not a huge differential), and Garcia & Radke pretty much even. Obviously Santana's the class of the group if not the AL.

JRIG
03-09-2005, 01:34 PM
My point was that IMO it looks pretty good to rate Buehrle above Radke (albiet not a huge differential), and Garcia & Radke pretty much even. Obviously Santana's the class of the group if not the AL.

This is true. No doubt Santana and Buehrle are 1-2. I just wouldn't feel comfortable placing Garcia above Radke. A tie for 3rd sounds right.

Flight #24
03-09-2005, 01:49 PM
This is true. No doubt Santana and Buehrle are 1-2. I just wouldn't feel comfortable placing Garcia above Radke. A tie for 3rd sounds right.

:hijacked:

Going down the line comparing Sox & Twins staffs using career ERA+ (because I'm too lazy right now to do much more research than that):

Buehrle: 125 v. Santana: 136
Garcia: 114 v. Radke: 114
Hernandez: 116 v. Silva: 108
Garland: 101 v. Mays: 102
Contreras: 95 v. Lohse 94

Total Sox: 551 v. Total Twins: 554 (Note: I know this isn't the way the stats are meant to be used, I'm just doing a ballpark comparison here)

So staffs are equivalent and which one is better will be determined by who can outperform their career averages.

/hijack]

Jjav829
03-09-2005, 02:26 PM
:hijacked:

Going down the line comparing Sox & Twins staffs using career ERA+ (because I'm too lazy right now to do much more research than that):

Buehrle: 125 v. Santana: 136
Garcia: 114 v. Radke: 114
Hernandez: 116 v. Silva: 108
Garland: 101 v. Mays: 102
Contreras: 95 v. Lohse 94

Total Sox: 551 v. Total Twins: 554 (Note: I know this isn't the way the stats are meant to be used, I'm just doing a ballpark comparison here)

So staffs are equivalent and which one is better will be determined by who can outperform their career averages.

/hijack]

Just wondering, how much does that take into consideration Johan's crappy years in the bullpen compared to his amazing year last year. I'd think that skews it quite a bit, right?

I think it's fair to say the staffs are pretty even right now, regardless of what the numbers say. Obviously Santana, if he pitches like last year, gives them a pitcher that we can't match. A healthy El Duque, which is a big question, gives us a slight edge in the middle of the rotation though.

Flight #24
03-09-2005, 02:32 PM
Just wondering, how much does that take into consideration Johan's crappy years in the bullpen compared to his amazing year last year. I'd think that skews it quite a bit, right?

I think it's fair to say the staffs are pretty even right now, regardless of what the numbers say. Obviously Santana, if he pitches like last year, gives them a pitcher that we can't match. A healthy El Duque, which is a big question, gives us a slight edge in the middle of the rotation though.

Couldn't tell you, if I wasn't so damn busy prepping for my fantasy draft this weekend, I'd go look up their actual stats and form a more informed opinion. Like you, I believe they have an advantage at the #1, we're even at the #2, and we have slight advantages the rest of the way down 3-5.

MRKARNO
03-09-2005, 04:55 PM
Just wondering, how much does that take into consideration Johan's crappy years in the bullpen compared to his amazing year last year. I'd think that skews it quite a bit, right?

I think it's fair to say the staffs are pretty even right now, regardless of what the numbers say. Obviously Santana, if he pitches like last year, gives them a pitcher that we can't match. A healthy El Duque, which is a big question, gives us a slight edge in the middle of the rotation though.

Well his ERA+ was 180 last year....

I would say that we dont have an answer for Santana, but I like the back end of our rotation more.

PAPChiSox729
03-11-2005, 11:35 PM
1. Johan Santana
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Brad Radke
4. Freddy Garcia
5. CC Sabathia
6. Zack Greinke
7. Jake Westbrook
8. Orlando Hernandez
9. Carlos Silva
10. Jon Garland
11. Kevin Millwood
12. Jose Contreras

All of the Sox's starting 5 make it. The Twins have three, as do the Indians. Greinke represents the Royals. And the powerhouse Tigers have no one.

Banix12
03-12-2005, 01:06 AM
1. Johan Santana (he's the only Cy Young winner in the division I think so he deserves to be #1)
2. Mark Buehrle (what can I say about this man that hasn't been said)
3. Brad Radke (Doesn't have the stuff of most of the pitchers on the list, but he's gotten the job done for 10 years)
4. Freddy Garcia
5. C.C. Sabathia (we've been waiting for that next step, he's still only 24 years old though, give him time)
6. Orlando Hernandez (When fully healthy he's better than most in the league)
7. Zack Greinke (He should move up the list but frankly potential is baseball speak for "ain't done squat". He has the stuff and showed it last season, I just have to see him do it for more than a year.)
8. Kevin Millwood (good pitcher, but should struggle in the various hitters parks in the Central)
9. Jake Westbrook (doesn't have the greatest stuff, but does the job)
10. Jon Garland (will probably never be more than a mid-rotation guy, but he gets bonus points for doing pretty well in a Hitter's park.)
11. Jeremy Bonderman (great stuff, bad team. Still not ready for the big time, but getting there. Another guy living off potential but has shown the ability to strike out major leaguers)
12. Jose Lima (has his problems, but more accomplished than most of the other starters in the division. When he's on he can be as good as anybody, when he's off, the fans in the bleachers should be paying attention.)

Silva doesn't make my list, he had a decent season last year but only 76 K's in over 200 innings and gave up 255 hits. Makes me think he owes a lot of last season to his defense. Think about it, as a reliever in 2003 he had about 50 K's in almost 150 fewer innings.

Contreras has better stuff than the last four guys on my list, but that stuff hasn't led to an ERA under five yet.

A few other guys I think can jump on the list are Wil Ledezma of Detroit if he gets a shot, Runlevys Hernandez of KC if he is finally healthy, and Cliff Lee of Cleveland if he can rediscover what he had early last year and work on his stamina.