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View Full Version : WSI Spring Training preview 3/7/05: Seattle Mariners


Jjav829
03-07-2005, 01:06 AM
Well, in the interest of trying to stir up some more baseball discussion on other teams, I had an idea that we could do our own WSI preview of all 29 other teams in baseball. I'll start a new thread for a new team every day, with some days having two teams. My first post will summarize the teams offseason moves and hopefully open up some discussion on predictions or just general discussion of each team. Here goes. We'll start off with the Mariners. I'll see what kind of response there is. If there is a good response to this idea, I'll continue the idea. If not, well, it's just another failed idea. :smile: Here goes...

Seattle Mariners

Key offseason additions:
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Richie Sexson

Key offseason losses:
None

General Outlook:
You have to like the additions of Beltre and Sexson to the middle of the order. The Mariners biggest weakness last year was their inability to put up runs. They were the lowest scoring team in the AL last year, scoring a measly 698 runs. To help solve that, they went out and added the MLB home run champion from last year at third base, and a first baseman who has 40 HR potential. One positive on Beltre is that he is going from a pitchers park to a pitchers park. This isn't like he hit 48 home runs playing at Coors last year and is suddenly going to a place where home runs are hard to come by. A dropoff is to be expected, but even if he only hits 38 home runs, he's still a huge boost to that lineup. Ichiro will be Ichiro at the top of the order and should create plenty of RBI opportunities for Seatte's two new boppers. If Bret Boone bounces back and focuses less on the long ball and more on actually hitting the ball, their lineup could be pretty good.

Possible starting lineup:
Feel free to play manager here and tell us how you would stack the teams lineup. I would go:
RF Ichiro Suzuki
LF Randy Winn
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Richie Sexson
2B Bret Boone
DH Raul Ibanez
CF Jeremy Reed
C Miguel Olivo
SS Pokey Reese

If Reed starts off hot, he could find himself in that #2 hole sooner rather than later. But for now, you have to give Randy Winn the nod. Ibanez seems to be in place as the DH. All-in-all, the additions of Beltre and Sexson figure to give them a lot more offense. They should also take some pressure off Boone, possibly allowing him to cut back on the home run stroke and look to make a little better contact once in a while.

Possibly starting pitching rotation:
Jamie Moyer
Joel Pineiro
Gil Meche
Bobby Madritsch
Ryan Franklin

Pineiro's the best of the bunch, though I'm guessing Moyer gets the Opening Day nod because he's the veteran. They could have used some help here. By help, I mean more than the return of Aaron Sele. They're going to need Moyer to show he can still pitch and at least one of the young pitchers has to take a major step forward for them to have a chance to be decent in what should be a tough AL West. They'll be better than last year's 63 win team just because they won't see as many 2-1 losses this year. Still, barring career years from three or more of their starters, they don't figure to be anything more than a team that will make the AL West a little tougher on the likes of Anaheim, Oakland and Texas.

Overall Prediction:
4th place 73 - 89

Player that will surprise:
1B - Richie Sexson - It's not that Richie is going to surprise anyone based on what he has done. I just think some people have this idea that Sexson is injury prone and expect him to be injured again. I think he'll stay healthy and put up some good numbers.

Player that will disappoint:
CF Jeremy Reed - He's been hyped up by a lot of people, perhaps overhyped. It seems that some Mariners fans are even starting to believe that he has been overhyped. The M's front office explored trading for Mike Cameron, perhaps indicating that they might be a little worried about just how ready Reed is. Then again, they might just be worried about Reed playing center, preferring to move him to left field. One way or the other, they seem to have some quiet worries about Reed.

So that's about what I have in mind. Nothing major, but something that could hopefully be a springboard to further conversation. Throw out anything else you want. Feel free to copy this post and replace what I said for each category with your own thoughts. Add in any other categories you want and I might use them for future previews if this thing sparks some conversation. If it doesn't, o well, but I thought it seemed like a good idea.

MUsoxfan
03-07-2005, 01:12 AM
That's a pretty good overview. Seattle has nowhere to go but up. Their lineup is very very scary looking, but their rotation is laughable. I'll say 79 wins for the M's. Their team ERA will be awful, but team BA and run production will be through the roof

ChiSoxRowand
03-07-2005, 03:11 AM
Great idea jjav. I like seattles lineup and I think they will improve bigtime, but I am not very impressed with their pitching. I say they finish 3rd.

Cubbiesuck13
03-07-2005, 04:25 AM
Good job Jjav, I agree about Reed being over hyped (mostly from this board here) but I have to disagree with you on Beltre. I think he is going to be an above average 3B but not nearly as close to what he was last year. And that rotation is pretty sad. I like Joel Pineiro but I think Jamie Moyer is done. And that would leave them with one (1) pitcher to rely on. The West is not going to be as competitive as it was last year with the A's in a rebuilding year but the Rangers look good and the Angels look great.

Chicago83
03-07-2005, 07:04 AM
I think the combination of Ichiro, Beltre, and Sexson will be enough to lift them to second in the division barely ahead of the rangers. The angels win it again, Rangers take third, and oakland drops to last. I think the division got very weak after the Oakland trades, the angels are the only playoff team of the bunch. I have no reason to believe that the rangers will be as good as they were last year.

PAPChiSox729
03-07-2005, 08:35 PM
Pretty fair review. That rotation is very weak and the bullpen isn't very good either. I think that Beltre will have a bit of a drop off from last year, but still will be solid. 79 wins is a pretty good prediction for them, but I say that they finish 3rd above the A's.

MRKARNO
03-07-2005, 09:30 PM
I think their rotation is better than some think. Moyer is probably done, but I think Piniero and Franklin will be better, Madritsch will be good again and you never know when Meche will finally turn it around. They might surprise and be better than .500 team if the pitching rebounds like it can, but they dont have a bullpen outside of Guardado.

Jjav829
03-08-2005, 03:15 AM
I think the combination of Ichiro, Beltre, and Sexson will be enough to lift them to second in the division barely ahead of the rangers. The angels win it again, Rangers take third, and oakland drops to last. I think the division got very weak after the Oakland trades, the angels are the only playoff team of the bunch. I have no reason to believe that the rangers will be as good as they were last year.

I just can't see 2nd place. I think they will be improved, but to the point where they can compete? I can't say that. I think Oakland will do okay. They're probably not going to make the playoffs, but I think they can stay in the race and make things tough for the Angels. The Rangers didn't upgrade their pitching, so they could fall to 4th. But I'll stick with the Mariners there.

samram
03-08-2005, 09:24 AM
I just can't see 2nd place. I think they will be improved, but to the point where they can compete? I can't say that. I think Oakland will do okay. They're probably not going to make the playoffs, but I think they can stay in the race and make things tough for the Angels. The Rangers didn't upgrade their pitching, so they could fall to 4th. But I'll stick with the Mariners there.

Yeah, the M's starting pitching just doesn't look good. One has to wonder when Moyer will go from junk ball artist to BP pitcher. Piniero was up and down last year, and Meche has to stay healthy. Franklin is the definition of mediocre and Madritsch will be inconsistent, as most young pitchers are.

That offense should be pretty fun to watch though, especially if Reed is as good as advertised (I mean advertised by actual scouts, not by some on this site who guarantee he will be the next .400 hitter).

chuckn98229
03-08-2005, 09:35 AM
fyi - Mariners' single game tickets went on sale this past Saturday (3/5). The Sox will make only one trip to Safeco Field this year on August 26-28. I already got my tickets for the Friday and Saturday games.

Foulke You
03-08-2005, 04:10 PM
I think the back end of the rotation and more likely the bullpen will stop the M's from contending in the AL West. They are going to need big seasons out of Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Guardado to close out games.

Does anyone know if Aaron Sele is projected to make the rotation or is he a longshot? He did have his best seasons with the M's and pitching in Safeco again could revive his career if he is finally healthy. An effective Aaron Sele could be the difference for Seattle to contend in this division.

Overall, my prediction for the M's is that they have improved but will be fighting it out with Oakland for 3rd place in the AL West.

Flight #24
03-08-2005, 04:18 PM
I predict Beltre to have a "comeback" year, i.e. come back closer to his historical levels following a contract year. I also predict that Sexson will hit his HRs, but they'll be in the 30-35 range given the park and his recovery from shoulder surgery. This team's going to struggle early, and IMO finish in 4th.

FWIW - Rangers in 3d, A's will not be very good, but will still finish in 2d because the division just won't be that great in general. Angels run away with the title in the ALW.

OEO Magglio
03-08-2005, 05:21 PM
I personally see 3rd place for seattle. I think they'll finish in front of Texas, with LAAoA winning the division and Oakland taking 2nd. No don't get me wrong, I don't think Oakland is very good but I think this division has become pretty weak and LAAoA should have an easy time at it, imo.

SweetHereafter
03-08-2005, 08:03 PM
If Jeremy Reed's wrists are healthy, he will win the RotY - that is, if he is eligible.

Mark my words, virtually every facet of his game is better than being given credit for by the "tools" guys, save for his very mediocre throwing arm.

Just watch.

doublem23
03-08-2005, 08:28 PM
How dare you speak ill of Jeremy Reed? He'll hit .450 in his MLB career just to shove it in Kenny William's face. He is the 18th recincarnation of Vishnu.