PDA

View Full Version : Podsednik SB total


Fake Chet Lemon
02-27-2005, 09:06 PM
On whitesox.com they are asking you to vote on Podsednik's stolen base total. I try not to be a total Kool-aid drinker, but I voted he will beat Rudy's Law's record of 77. I mean, he stole 70 last year batting .240. He has to beat that, right? Especially under Ozzie and Coach Rock? I say 80.

baseball_fanatic
02-27-2005, 09:14 PM
He could get 70, but that's still being a bit optimisitc. My guess would be around 55, which is still a lot of stolen bases. I'm not saying he doesn't have the ability to reach 70, but the Sox will be a better team than the Brewers were last season which will make him have to be more judicious in his decision to run.

The_Cheesiest_Idiot
02-27-2005, 09:17 PM
i don't care bout SB's, i just want RUNS SCORED to be HIGH

PAPChiSox729
02-27-2005, 09:21 PM
He could get 70, but that's still being a bit optimisitc. My guess would be around 55, which is still a lot of stolen bases. I'm not saying he doesn't have the ability to reach 70, but the Sox will be a better team than the Brewers were last season which will make him have to be more judicious in his decision to run.

I really didn't have any idea. I chose 50-59 SBs. I mean you bring up a good point about the Sox being better then the Brewers. But, Ozzie loves small ball, and the Sox will probably be in some close games which makes his speed very important. Then again, if Pods has a bad start, he may spend part of the season on the bench. Let's not hope so!

Fake Chet Lemon
02-27-2005, 09:21 PM
i don't care bout SB's, i just want RUNS SCORED to be HIGH

I think we can agree they go hand in hand. I can't wait to see what Konerko does with all the juicy fast balls he'll be seeing with that speed on board ahead of him.

baseball_fanatic
02-27-2005, 09:33 PM
I really didn't have any idea. I chose 50-59 SBs. I mean you bring up a good point about the Sox being better then the Brewers. But, Ozzie loves small ball, and the Sox will probably be in some close games which makes his speed very important. Then again, if Pods has a bad start, he may spend part of the season on the bench. Let's not hope so!

But even Ozzie isn't going to run himself out of an inning. Pods will pick his spots, I'm sure of it. In Milwaukee, it was all about individual stats because the team was going no where. He might hit 70 or more, but even with Ozzie, I'm not sure that he will run enough to get to that number.

PAPChiSox729
02-27-2005, 09:36 PM
But even Ozzie isn't going to run himself out of an inning. Pods will pick his spots, I'm sure of it. In Milwaukee, it was all about individual stats because the team was going no where. He might hit 70 or more, but even with Ozzie, I'm not sure that he will run enough to get to that number.

Ozzie is agressive. And knowing how fast Pods is, I'm sure Ozzie will take the risk each time if the extra base is needed.

zach074
02-27-2005, 09:40 PM
I think his stolen base total will take a major hit this year. He will be lucky to get 30.

Cowch44
02-27-2005, 09:45 PM
I think he'll get 80 steals, and break Lee's hit-streak.
Gonna go drink some more Kool-aid now.:gulp:

PAPChiSox729
02-27-2005, 09:45 PM
I think his stolen base total will take a major hit this year. He will be lucky to get 30.

Harris had 19 SBs last year. And Harris was very timid on the basepaths. . I would think that if Pods starts most of the games of the season, he will get at least 45. A 40 SBs drop off is huge.

samram
02-27-2005, 09:54 PM
I think his stolen base total will take a major hit this year. He will be lucky to get 30.

Um, why? Last year, his OBP suggested he was on base about twice a week and he stole 70, so why would his total go down by 60% a year later? Unless your theory is he's going to get benched or injured.

SoxFan48
02-27-2005, 10:36 PM
Let's way to the season starts to see if the new hero, Scotty Pods, can even reach first base.

MRKARNO
02-27-2005, 11:00 PM
I think 45-50 is a good guess. I might have said that I think he'll steal more earlier, but I'm not sure I see it. I just hope that he steals at a good rate moreso than a particular number of steals. If he reaches base 200 times and steals every single time (theoretically of course) and gets 120 steals, that's not such a good thing, but if he got closer to 150-160 then if probably would be worth it. When it comes to steals, it's the rate at which they occur that is most important. I dont expect this to be a problem for him though because his career rate is somewhere around 83%

mcfish
02-27-2005, 11:21 PM
But even Ozzie isn't going to run himself out of an inning. Pods will pick his spots, I'm sure of it. In Milwaukee, it was all about individual stats because the team was going no where. He might hit 70 or more, but even with Ozzie, I'm not sure that he will run enough to get to that number.That's just not true. It's not like Ned Yost told Scott "look, we're going to lose anyway, so you might as well go ahead and steal as many bases as you possibly can." I guess I don't know this for sure, but from everything I've read it appears Scott is a good team player. He wouldn't have been out there running just for "individual stats." Ozzie might manage Pods a little tighter than Yost and not let him run at will, or he might not. Either way, it's not like Pods was out there stealing bases just because he thought it would look good on his personal stat sheet.

NSSoxFan
02-27-2005, 11:54 PM
That's just not true. It's not like Ned Yost told Scott "look, we're going to lose anyway, so you might as well go ahead and steal as many bases as you possibly can." I guess I don't know this for sure, but from everything I've read it appears Scott is a good team player. He wouldn't have been out there running just for "individual stats." Ozzie might manage Pods a little tighter than Yost and not let him run at will, or he might not. Either way, it's not like Pods was out there stealing bases just because he thought it would look good on his personal stat sheet.

Right on. I think Pods will end up with anywhere from 50 to 80 stolen bases. Obviously that is a broad range, but there are so many factors that go into getting stolen bases.

Also, the mere fact that we have a couple threats at actually stealing bases, it opens up the hitting game a lot more. If everyone here remembers one particular situation against the ScRubs last year when Zambrano was on the mound, Timo at first, and Crede at the plate. Zambrano was so worried about the *threat* of a stolen base that he grooved one to Joe.

Speed Kills, period.

Vestigio
02-28-2005, 12:08 AM
I'm thinkin' Pods will steal somewhere around 50-59 SB's. The reason being is that the AL Central has got to be one of the toughest divisions to steal bases. There's Mauer in Minny, Martinez in Cle, and Ivan in Det, all three of them have the arms to throw out runners.

JRIG
02-28-2005, 05:50 AM
Um, why? Last year, his OBP suggested he was on base about twice a week and he stole 70, so why would his total go down by 60% a year later? Unless your theory is he's going to get benched or injured.

Well, 2 years ago he was on base a lot more, yet only had 40-some stolen bases. That's one piece of evidence that just because he get on-base more, he won't necessarily steal more bases. I think somewhere in the 50s is a pretty good guess.

samram
02-28-2005, 06:43 AM
Well, 2 years ago he was on base a lot more, yet only had 40-some stolen bases. That's one piece of evidence that just because he get on-base more, he won't necessarily steal more bases. I think somewhere in the 50s is a pretty good guess.

My point is that he seems to be a good base-stealer (who got better last year judging by success rate) regardless of whether he's on base or not. I don't know that he'll steal 70 either, if only because the Sox will be in more important situations than the Brewers and it may be necessary to not take chances he could have taken last season. However, I was responding to a post saying he would be lucky to get 30, but I think the only way he sinks that far is if he's hurt or so bad that OG benches him.

delben91
02-28-2005, 07:03 AM
My point is that he seems to be a good base-stealer (who got better last year judging by success rate) regardless of whether he's on base or not.

:?:

The being on base part is sort of key to that equation though...

samram
02-28-2005, 07:42 AM
:?:

The being on base part is sort of key to that equation though...

Well, his OBP was .313 last year and he stole 70, so it would seem he steals bases whether or not he's on base a lot.

delben91
02-28-2005, 07:59 AM
Well, his OBP was .313 last year and he stole 70, so it would seem he steals bases whether or not he's on base a lot.

I got it now. My interpretation of your initial statement was that he was able to steal bases after having grounded out or something. "whether he's on base or not" and I thought, kinda hard to steal a base from the bench. But I see what you're saying now.

Fake Chet Lemon
02-28-2005, 08:40 AM
With Harris benched, Rowand being asked to be more of a power guy, and Uribe taking over one of the games more demanding positions every day, I think that all adds up to Ozzie demanding more out of Pods on the base paths. Some posts have Pods around 30, I can't see any chance of that if he is healthy taking all of this into consideration.

Palehose13
02-28-2005, 08:59 AM
That's just not true. It's not like Ned Yost told Scott "look, we're going to lose anyway, so you might as well go ahead and steal as many bases as you possibly can." I guess I don't know this for sure, but from everything I've read it appears Scott is a good team player. He wouldn't have been out there running just for "individual stats." Ozzie might manage Pods a little tighter than Yost and not let him run at will, or he might not. Either way, it's not like Pods was out there stealing bases just because he thought it would look good on his personal stat sheet.

You are 100% correct.

I think he'll have at least 50. I would like him to break Law's record, but I want to see what Ozzie is going to do with him first.

BigEdWalsh
02-28-2005, 10:30 AM
Ozzie says, if Pods returns to form as a hitter, he'll have the chance to steal 140 bases. I'm not kidding.

Link:http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/281sd4.htm

Also,
"I expect this team to steal more bases this year everyone."

What would "more" be for Paulie? One?

Palehose13
02-28-2005, 10:35 AM
"I expect this team to steal more bases this year everyone."

What would "more" be for Paulie? One?

Actually, two. He stole one last year. :wink:

Lem_Siddons
02-28-2005, 11:38 AM
It will be a lot easier to dial this in after we see how the batting order shakes out. Early in the season there will be some pressure on Ozzie and Pods to start running. This is what our manager wanted, he got his style of player, and now he will feel some pressure to make it happen.

Just a guess, 50-60 with just taking what the other team is giving up. If Oz is willing to settle on a lower success percentage, 70-80 and the record could be in jeopardy.

A better poll will be what success rate he will have and what acceptable is. Extreme examples to show my point:100 at 50% or 20 at 100% That can be a bigger factor than raw total. If he's getting thrown our regularly, that isn't very good.

mjharrison72
02-28-2005, 12:07 PM
Ozzie says, if Pods returns to form as a hitter, he'll have the chance to steal 140 bases. I'm not kidding.

Link:http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/281sd4.htm

Also,
"I expect this team to steal more bases this year everyone."

What would "more" be for Paulie? One?
He also says everyone's going to have the green light all the time, and I think this especially applies to guys like Pods, Iguchi, Rowand... Although the 140 number is probably a little high, I don't think breaking Law's record of 77 is out of the question if Pods has Willie Mays-Hays-like speed and moxie.

gosox41
02-28-2005, 12:10 PM
On whitesox.com they are asking you to vote on Podsednik's stolen base total. I try not to be a total Kool-aid drinker, but I voted he will beat Rudy's Law's record of 77. I mean, he stole 70 last year batting .240. He has to beat that, right? Especially under Ozzie and Coach Rock? I say 80.

It'll be interesting to see if Ozzie follows through on his promise to have the most aggressive baserunning team in baseball. He defintely has more of his type of players that can do that. If Ozzie actions back up his words then I ca nsee 75+ steals for Pods.


Bob

pudge
02-28-2005, 01:47 PM
I'm thinkin' Pods will steal somewhere around 50-59 SB's. The reason being is that the AL Central has got to be one of the toughest divisions to steal bases. There's Mauer in Minny, Martinez in Cle, and Ivan in Det, all three of them have the arms to throw out runners.

Great point which many seem to be passing by.... If he hits 40 I'd be pleased.

itsnotrequired
02-28-2005, 02:05 PM
Ozzie says, if Pods returns to form as a hitter, he'll have the chance to steal 140 bases. I'm not kidding.

Same way Randy Johnson will win 30 games this year (as predicted by Big Kruk).

TheBull19
02-28-2005, 03:59 PM
I would think that if Pods starts most of the games of the season, he will get at least 45. A 40 SBs drop off is huge.

If being the key word here. I'm going w/ 20 SB as I'm predicting that when Thomas comes back, Guillen won't be able to take Everett out of the lineup and Pods will be riding the pine.

maurice
02-28-2005, 05:44 PM
70 has to be the baseline. It's absolutely amazing that Podsednik could accomplish that feat with such a low OBP. He's not likely to hit any worse this year, and Ozzie has made it abundantly clear that he doesn't care about CS. Ozzie wants his guys to run at every possible opportunity. Given all of this, I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that Podsednik steals 80+.

UofCSoxFan
02-28-2005, 06:22 PM
80 sbs seems like a ton....that's 1 every two games. Yet he grabbed 70 hitting .240 last year (getting on base about once a game) so he stole a base on average about 1 out of every 2 to 2.5 times on base. That is amaizing. I'm thinking he'll have an automatic green light just about every time on base (like there will be a sign for him NOT to steal). The fact that the Sox are built to manufacture runs and not rely on the 3 run homer makes it more likely he'll swipe bases. I'd be happy w/ 60 but hope for 80.

MRKARNO
02-28-2005, 07:27 PM
Same way Randy Johnson will win 30 games this year (as predicted by Big Kruk).

That might be one of the least intelligent predictions I have ever seen come from that show, and we're not exactly talking about a group whose predictions I would trust at all.

batmanZoSo
02-28-2005, 08:16 PM
No more than 50. Last year was an abberation. Come on, he's not Vince Coleman. The year previous--where he batted a robust .314 and was on base a hell of a lot more--he only stole 43. Of course that's still a hearty helping and would more than suffice. I'd much rather he bat .290 and get on-base at a .370 clip. And that with 70 steals would be peachy. But be a real leadoff man and be consistent rather than trying to be Willie Mays Hays.

Lem_Siddons
02-28-2005, 08:55 PM
That might be one of the least intelligent predictions I have ever seen come from that show, and we're not exactly talking about a group whose predictions I would trust at all.

That is a crazy pediction of the question was, how many games is Johnson going to win this season.

If the question was, which pitcher has the best chance to win 30 games this season? He's be one of the first names on my lips. Right after Garland

MRKARNO
02-28-2005, 09:05 PM
That is a crazy pediction of the question was, how many games is Johnson going to win this season.

If the question was, which pitcher has the best chance to win 30 games this season? He's be one of the first names on my lips. Right after Garland

The thought that anyone can win 30 games in this era of 5-man rototations and 35 starts at the absolute maximum is ludicrous. There are too many factors like not enough run support, even from the best offenses and such for that to happen. 25 wins? It'd be real tough but not impossible; Randy had 24 in 2002.

The Racehorse
03-01-2005, 06:59 AM
I believe Ozzie when he says "everybody is available to run". I interpret that as Ozzie's determination to make something happen almost everytime an
opportunity presents itself.

Pods will steal near 80 bases. Also, Konerko will triple his SB count from last year. :cool:

idseer
03-01-2005, 07:55 AM
I believe Ozzie when he says "everybody is available to run". I interpret that as Ozzie's determination to make something happen almost everytime an
opportunity presents itself.

Pods will steal near 80 bases. Also, Konerko will triple his SB count from last year. :cool:

anyone ever think that statement could also be a way to try to get into opposing pitchers heads?
i seriously doubt everyone will always have the green light.

The Racehorse
03-01-2005, 08:17 AM
anyone ever think that statement could also be a way to try to get into opposing pitchers heads?
i seriously doubt everyone will always have the green light.

Yeah... I have no doubt that Ozzie will [or has already started to] play mind games with opposing pitchers.

I may have had a touch of koolaid in my coffee this morning in regards to Pods. With that said, I'm serious about PK tripling his SB count from 1 to 3. :D:

EDIT: Getting back to your original question, I do think Ozzie will ensure that this team will be very aggressive on the base paths and will hit and run as often as possible. If Ozzie waits for the 3 run bomb, then KW's off season retooling effort is wasted. Not an original thought, but true imo.

Iwritecode
03-01-2005, 09:28 AM
Actually, two. He stole one last year. :wink:

I remember that game.

IIRC, the catcher was so dumbfounded that he dind't even try to throw him out.

:D:

Ol' No. 2
03-01-2005, 09:32 AM
anyone ever think that statement could also be a way to try to get into opposing pitchers heads?
i seriously doubt everyone will always have the green light.But that's a big part of the running game. The threat to run is almost as effective as actually stealing the base. And if you can force a pitcher to throw to first 15 times during the course of a game, that's almost like pitching an extra inning. Of course everybody isn't going to be running every time. But the threat will be there every time.

The Wunsch
03-01-2005, 07:15 PM
Pods should raise his BA this year, and Rock is here to send runners. He should get at least 80 this year. And I'm a realist.