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I want Mags back
02-16-2005, 12:05 PM
how many home runs will the sox hit. Will it really be that much less than last year Feel free to post an actual number

Flight #24
02-16-2005, 12:15 PM
Karnac the magnificent says.....

Podsednik: 8
Iguchi: 15
Frank: 25
Konerko: 35
Dye: 27
Rowand: 30
Uribe: 25
Pierzynski: 18
Crede: 24

Everett: 18 (splitting time with Frank & Dye)
General bench: 20

Total: 245

JRIG
02-16-2005, 12:21 PM
Karnac the magnificent says.....

Podsednik: 8
Iguchi: 15
Frank: 25
Konerko: 35
Dye: 27
Rowand: 30
Uribe: 25
Pierzynski: 18
Crede: 24

Everett: 18 (splitting time with Frank & Dye)
General bench: 20

Total: 245

I think you're overestimating Rowand, Uribe, Crede, and Pierzynski. I think at least 5 fewer for each is more likely. Then again, if Frank is healthy from Day One, he certainly hits more than that. I have a feeling right around 200 is going to end up being correct.

Nick@Nite
02-16-2005, 12:22 PM
Last year, the Sox clubbed 242 (I think). With Maggs & El Caballo gone, plus with the very real possibility that Frank starts the season on the DL, 242 won't be reached. The Sox will bang their share... I'm thinking on the high side of 150-to-200 range, which will be more than enough IF the pitching comes through.

SOXintheBURGH
02-16-2005, 12:30 PM
I would say around 180-185. Ozzie Ball, you know.

Flight #24
02-16-2005, 12:31 PM
I think you're overestimating Rowand, Uribe, Crede, and Pierzynski. I think at least 5 fewer for each is more likely. Then again, if Frank is healthy from Day One, he certainly hits more than that. I have a feeling right around 200 is going to end up being correct.

I admit that I was somewhat surprised at how high the total ended, but I tried to go into it without any preconceptions as to what the # would end up at. Given that Uribe, Crede, ARow hit a combined 68HR in 2004, I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a combined 10 additional HR since Uribe & ARow will get more PT and Crede can easily hit better than .239.

What is oft overlooked, IMO is that the Sox got 23HR out of RF last year (Borchard/Timo/Maggs), and 30 out of DH (Frank/Carl/Gload). Both of those are low compared to what I'd expect this year, especially with the news that Frank's on track to participate mid-March so he should be ready by May. Add in improvements in the power at C and I think you can pretty well offset the dropoff in HR from Lee to Pods.

mcfish
02-16-2005, 12:38 PM
Last year, the Sox clubbed 242 (I think). With Maggs & El Caballo gone, plus with the very real possibility that Frank starts the season on the DL, 242 won't be reached. The Sox will bang their share... I'm thinking on the high side of 150-to-200 range, which will be more than enough IF the pitching comes through.With Maggs gone, you're losing 9 whole home runs from that 242 = 233. Lee actually hit some homeruns, so there's 31 gone right there = 202. But, Dye hit 23 IN OAKLAND. Now we're back to 225. I just don't understand where we're losing that much power. Maggs and Lee combined for 40 of the 242 home runs last year. Even if we replaced them with 0 and everyone repeated their numbers the Sox would still be over 200 HR's.

Gremlin3
02-16-2005, 12:43 PM
150-200 tops. More speed less longball

Nick@Nite
02-16-2005, 12:44 PM
With Maggs gone, you're losing 9 whole home runs from that 242 = 233. Lee actually hit some homeruns, so there's 31 gone right there = 202. But, Dye hit 23 IN OAKLAND. Now we're back to 225. I just don't understand where we're losing that much power. Maggs and Lee combined for 40 of the 242 home runs last year. Even if we replaced them with 0 and everyone repeated their numbers the Sox would still be over 200 HR's.

I forgot to mention Manos... can you factor him into your HR equation, 2005 style? :cool:

mcfish
02-16-2005, 12:48 PM
I forgot to mention Manos... can you factor him into your HR equation, 2005 style? :cool:
Sure.
Manos -30 HR (not to mention -.216 batting average)
Iguchi +15 HR (at least)
Podsednik +10 HR (he hit that in Miller Park last year - Coors East should give him the same)
AJP +11 HR
Frank +10 HR

champagne030
02-16-2005, 12:50 PM
With Maggs gone, you're losing 9 whole home runs from that 242 = 233. Lee actually hit some homeruns, so there's 31 gone right there = 202. But, Dye hit 23 IN OAKLAND. Now we're back to 225. I just don't understand where we're losing that much power. Maggs and Lee combined for 40 of the 242 home runs last year. Even if we replaced them with 0 and everyone repeated their numbers the Sox would still be over 200 HR's.

you're leaving out the wiffmaster (mr cuervo) and borchcrap who added 40 to the total....

mcfish
02-16-2005, 12:52 PM
you're leaving out the wiffmaster (mr cuervo) and borchcrap who added 40 to the total....And ruined our offense in the process. I didn't say it would be higher than last year, I said the Sox will still be in the 200's. It might be 210, which would be 30 lower, but at least Manos and LTP won't be in the lineup.

Nick@Nite
02-16-2005, 12:54 PM
Sure.
Manos -30 HR (not to mention -.216 batting average)
Iguchi +15 HR (at least)
Podsednik +10 HR (he hit that in Miller Park last year - Coors East should give him the same)
AJP +11 HR
Frank +10 HR

I wish it were that easy and I hope your right. :D: :cool:

champagne030
02-16-2005, 12:56 PM
Sure.
Manos -30 HR (not to mention -.216 batting average)
Iguchi +15 HR (at least)
Podsednik +10 HR (he hit that in Miller Park last year - Coors East should give him the same)
AJP +11 HR
Frank +10 HR

don't get me wrong about losing the .216 average, but i thought this was a thread about hr totals.....

and it's great for the positive thinking, but i think guessing (and i mean serious guessing) that iguchi will be "+15 at least" is throwing darts at the board.

podsednik, at plus 10 equals another crap year for him with the average.....i'll take 5 hr's and a .370 obp...

mcfish
02-16-2005, 12:57 PM
I wish it were that easy and I hope your right. :D: :cool:I realized that the 11 for AJP probably won't increase anything as the catcher spot already probably had that many between Davis and Olivo, but Frank only had 18 last year. You don't think he can do more than that? And everyone always forgets about Dye when telling me that we lost Maggs. Total 242 last year, combined total of like 20 in RF and Dye should put up at least 30 moving from OAK to the Cell. Podsednik will hit more than 0, Iguchi will outslug Harris, and the DH spot should be vastly improved by either Frank or Everett or both.

champagne030
02-16-2005, 01:01 PM
And ruined our offense in the process. I didn't say it would be higher than last year, I said the Sox will still be in the 200's. It might be 210, which would be 30 lower, but at least Manos and LTP won't be in the lineup.

don't get me wrong....they did ruin the offense....and we're probably about 20 homers apart overall....i think they'll be a little below 200 (185-190) and you think they'll be a little above......that's fine....this offense should be more reliable and that will help the team.

mcfish
02-16-2005, 01:01 PM
don't get me wrong about losing the .216 average, but i thought this was a thread about hr totals.....

and it's great for the positive thinking, but i think guessing (and i mean serious guessing) that iguchi will be "+15 at least" is throwing darts at the board.

podsednik, at plus 10 equals another crap year for him with the average.....i'll take 5 hr's and a .370 obp...Fine, give Iguchi 10 and Pods 5 - lose 10 from my total. Take out AJP too, because we had more than 10 HR's from catchers last year. Means that I added 25 to replace 30-40. Knock 15 off of 230 - we're still over 200.

mcfish
02-16-2005, 01:02 PM
don't get me wrong....they did ruin the offense....and we're probably about 20 homers apart overall....i think they'll be a little below 200 (185-190) and you think they'll be a little above......that's fine....this offense should be more reliable and that will help the team.Very true. I just can't wait for the season to start already. At least pitchers and catchers have reported.