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View Full Version : Vegas Odds On Who'll Win The WS, Please explain...


Clement's beard
02-15-2005, 11:42 PM
Just checked the online sports section of the Trib and they have the Yankees and cubs as the favorites to win the pennant. Are odds determined by the amount of "action" a team gets or are they determined by overall strength of a team? I have always wondered how they determine these odds.

Jabroni
02-16-2005, 12:07 AM
The odds are determined by the "action" or money bet on a team, which is an indicator of which teams gamblers perceive to be the strongest to win their division and/or World Series. Apparently, gamblers are only thinking about Wood, Prior, Zambrano, and Maddux and are forgetting that the Cubs have a weak bullpen, no closer, and the weakest starting outfield in the N.L.

JoseCanseco6969
02-16-2005, 12:16 AM
Just checked the online sports section of the Trib and they have the Yankees and cubs as the favorites to win the pennant. Are odds determined by the amount of "action" a team gets or are they determined by overall strength of a team? I have always wondered how they determine these odds.

Is there a way to throw in a bet that the Flubs WONT win the pennant??? hehe

Jabroni
02-16-2005, 12:26 AM
Is there a way to throw in a bet that the Flubs WONT win the pennant??? heheYou can bet on anything and that wouldn't be a bad one to make. :wink:

MUsoxfan
02-16-2005, 12:39 AM
You can bet on anything and that wouldn't be a bad one to make. :wink:

Indeed. I would gladly bet on the field against the Cubs

NSSoxFan
02-16-2005, 01:16 AM
Indeed. I would gladly bet on the field against the Cubs

I wonder what kind of odds they would give you...

Steelrod
02-16-2005, 03:52 AM
Just checked the online sports section of the Trib and they have the Yankees and cubs as the favorites to win the pennant. Are odds determined by the amount of "action" a team gets or are they determined by overall strength of a team? I have always wondered how they determine these odds.
It's the same Cubs money that sells out a sub .500 team that bets on it!!
Gamblers don't have to be smart...just need money...end of story!

DrCrawdad
02-16-2005, 06:43 AM
The Cubs not only are favored in the National League, but by a large margin -- 11-5 to win the pennant and 5-1 to win the Series. Their closest challengers, the Astros, are 5-1 and 12-1, respectively. Only the Yankees (3-1) and Red Sox (4-1) are at shorter odds to win the Series.

This can mean only one of two things: Either the oddsmakers are smoking something, or they think Cubs fans are.

The White Sox, no surprise here, are in the middle of the pack in the American League -- 13-1 to win the pennant, 25-1 to win the Series. - Sun-Times, Feb. 16, 2005 (http://www.suntimes.com/output/rapoport/cst-spt-rap16.html)

I've heard from quite a few different places about Vegas choosing the Cubbies as favorites to win World Series. Ok, will someone please explain how Vegas arrives at the odds and what they mean?

kraut83
02-16-2005, 07:25 AM
FWIW I heard something on the radio a while back that people place so many small "sentimental" bets on the flubs, that it is what drives them up so high.

SOXintheBURGH
02-16-2005, 08:26 AM
I've heard from quite a few different places about Vegas choosing the Cubbies as favorites to win World Series. Ok, will someone please explain how Vegas arrives at the odds and what they mean?

Basically:

Vegas wants to make money and know Cubs fans will bet since every year is "the year." If they put odds on the Cubs that look reasonable, a lot more money will be made off of idiots.

SOXintheBURGH
02-16-2005, 08:32 AM
DrCrawdad asked the same question in WTS?


Basically:

Vegas wants to make money and know Cubs fans will bet since every year is "the year." If they put odds on the Cubs that look reasonable, a lot more money will be made off of idiots.

gosox41
02-16-2005, 08:34 AM
I've heard from quite a few different places about Vegas choosing the Cubbies as favorites to win World Series. Ok, will someone please explain how Vegas arrives at the odds and what they mean?

This is how I understand it, though I may be wrong. Once odds are determined by the oddsmakers (something that seems difficult) the odds are based on supply/demand. Oddsamakers job is to make the odds look enticing enough to draw money for each team. Vegas wants to have the money split evenly among the teams so they don't take a huge hit if 1 team wins. They make enough money off the top.

The reason the Cubs odds have gotten better is that more money is betting on them. At least htat's how I understand it. It's probably more complex, but once the odds are set dupply/demand determines where the odds go from there.


Bob

D. TODD
02-16-2005, 09:11 AM
The idea for any odds is to create an equal amount of action on both sides. In this case on each team throughout baseball. This ensures a win for the house by collecting the "juice" on all losing bets. As the Cub fans lay more money on their team the odds will get lower, this does not reflect a increase in the believe of the oddsmakkers that the Cubs will win.

Vestigio
02-16-2005, 11:10 AM
I am definetly placing $20 on the Sox to win the division when my parents go to Vegas next month.

Lip Man 1
02-16-2005, 12:32 PM
Read Ron Rapoport's comments on this in Wednesday's Sun-Times column. It's funny and he can't explain what got into the Vegas people.

Lip

Ol' No. 2
02-16-2005, 12:41 PM
Read Ron Rapoport's comments on this in Wednesday's Sun-Times column. It's funny and he can't explain what got into the Vegas people.

LipNice.Either the oddsmakers are smoking something, or they think Cubs fans are.I think we pretty much know which, don't we?

JKryl
02-16-2005, 02:25 PM
I am definetly placing $20 on the Sox to win the division when my parents go to Vegas next month.

Don't do like I did last year, and forget where you put the ticket. Good thing the Sox got knocked out of the race, or I'd still be going nuts looking for it.

cburns
02-17-2005, 02:36 AM
I just got back from Vegas and the Sox were 6/1 to win the Pennant, and 12/1 to the World Series. IIRC, the only teams with better odds were the Yanks, BoSox, Twins, and Angels. Maybe throw the A's in there as well.

soxwon
02-18-2005, 10:54 PM
ok how did the cubs improve themselves?

what did Sl and Hous lose to make them underdogs?

soxwon
02-18-2005, 10:56 PM
I just got back from Vegas and the Sox were 6/1 to win the Pennant, and 12/1 to the World Series. IIRC, the only teams with better odds were the Yanks, BoSox, Twins, and Angels. Maybe throw the A's in there as well.

but we are ranked #21 in the power ratings!!!
you sure clev and det arent favored over us? lol

cubhater
02-19-2005, 08:12 AM
As i stated in a similar thread....Vegas LOVES Cub fans!:D:

DrCrawdad
02-21-2005, 07:23 AM
This is how I understand it, though I may be wrong. Once odds are determined by the oddsmakers (something that seems difficult) the odds are based on supply/demand. Oddsamakers job is to make the odds look enticing enough to draw money for each team. Vegas wants to have the money split evenly among the teams so they don't take a huge hit if 1 team wins. They make enough money off the top.

The reason the Cubs odds have gotten better is that more money is betting on them. At least htat's how I understand it. It's probably more complex, but once the odds are set dupply/demand determines where the odds go from there.


Bob

The reason I was interested in getting an explanation about the Vegas odds is that people keep saying, "...The Vegas oddsmakers are picking the Cubs and you know they know what they're talking about..."

In fact yesterday, Bruce LeVineLine brought up the Vegas odds on the Cubs and just a couple minutes ago Dave Eunet (sp?) on WGN did the same thing.