PDA

View Full Version : What are the main keys to the season?


Jurr
02-03-2005, 11:47 PM
The Sox have a good mix coming into the season. It is refreshing to see a new roster being put together, because we know what the old standbys brought us year in and year out. Given the roster and its new look, what are the main things that need to happen for the Sox to pull this thing off?
I'll start by saying that Orlando Hernandez needs to stay healthy and consistent. If he keeps his 2004 numbers over a season, we're looking at a good starter. I believe Garland may come closer to being a strong pitcher this year, and I'd like to see the #5 type numbers go to Contreras as far as the needed wins and innings. If El Duque puts a strong season together, we've got a good shot at doing some things.

What are your keys to the season?

chisoxmike
02-03-2005, 11:58 PM
Health, chemistry, & playing to the talent levels.

soltrain21
02-03-2005, 11:59 PM
Chemistry

samram
02-04-2005, 12:00 AM
El Duque's staying healthy will be very important. If he goes down for a significant amount of time, the team is really right back where it was last year, searching for anyone that can last five innings.

Crede's performance is also important. If he can start to reach his potential, it will help to make up what power production was lost in Lee and the difference in production between what a healthy Maggs would give them and what Dye does (which hopefully won't be much).

WinningUgly!
02-04-2005, 12:02 AM
Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen.

santo=dorf
02-04-2005, 12:06 AM
Reversing the curse of the Black Sox.

Seriously, Ozzie needs to prove he is capable of being a major league manager.

Chisox003
02-04-2005, 12:08 AM
El Duque's staying healthy will be very important. If he goes down for a significant amount of time, the team is really right back where it was last year, searching for anyone that can last five innings.

True...But don't forget, if/when El Duque goes down, we got a guy in Hermanson capable of going out every 5th day and gettin the job done better than ANY of the guys we had last year...A lot more depth

My keys are: Obviously health, along with Frank coming back fast and 100%; Contreras & Crede; Guys like Uribe having another good year (no need to put A-row here, right?), and Gooch OR Willie emerging as THE starting 2B; Finally, Shingo not having a sophomore slump

fuzzy_patters
02-04-2005, 12:15 AM
The Sox have a good mix coming into the season. It is refreshing to see a new roster being put together, because we know what the old standbys brought us year in and year out. Given the roster and its new look, what are the main things that need to happen for the Sox to pull this thing off?
I'll start by saying that Orlando Hernandez needs to stay healthy and consistent. If he keeps his 2004 numbers over a season, we're looking at a good starter. I believe Garland may come closer to being a strong pitcher this year, and I'd like to see the #5 type numbers go to Contreras as far as the needed wins and innings. If El Duque puts a strong season together, we've got a good shot at doing some things.

What are your keys to the season?

The key for any team that has Frank Thomas, Jermaine Dye, Carl Everett, and Orlando Hernandez is obviously health. These guys do not have a great recent track record of staying healthy.

samram
02-04-2005, 12:15 AM
True...But don't forget, if/when El Duque goes down, we got a guy in Hermanson capable of going out every 5th day and gettin the job done better than ANY of the guys we had last year...A lot more depth

My keys are: Obviously health, along with Frank coming back fast and 100%; Contreras & Crede; Guys like Uribe having another good year (no need to put A-row here, right?), and Gooch OR Willie emerging as THE starting 2B; Finally, Shingo not having a sophomore slump

I don't want to see Hermanson start any games unless it's an unforeseen emergency. He is not good in that role.

Irishsox1
02-04-2005, 12:17 AM
Staying healthy and quality pitching are a given so I'm gonna go with Juan Uribe leading the defense everyday and hitting a consistant .300 Not .500 the first 3 months and then .035 the second half.

Ol' No. 2
02-04-2005, 12:19 AM
El Duque's staying healthy will be very important. If he goes down for a significant amount of time, the team is really right back where it was last year, searching for anyone that can last five innings.

Crede's performance is also important. If he can start to reach his potential, it will help to make up what power production was lost in Lee and the difference in production between what a healthy Maggs would give them and what Dye does (which hopefully won't be much).I would agree with Hernandez and add Contreras. IMO, these two have to combine for 25-30 wins. You pretty much know what you're going to get from Garcia+Buehrle. They'll put up 33-35 between them and Garland should be good for his usual 12. As long as Hernandez and Contreras can chip in enough to get them to 75 win from the starting rotation, they're golden.

I'm not really that worried about the offense. If the pitching holds up, they're good.

cwsfannick
02-04-2005, 12:36 AM
I believe there are many keys that this team will need to achieve for this season to be successfull. Here are some that come to my mind:

1. Getting off to a quick start would be nice.
2. Winning series consistenly. Staying away from extended losing streaks.
3. Playing better on the West Coast swings.
4. Starting pitchers need to be efficient. Stay away from burning out the bullpen by August.
5. Stay away from giving the opponent 4 outs an inning on a daily basis.
6. Playing better small ball than we have in the past.
7. Run the bases like major leaguers should.
8. Lastly, stop laying eggs against the twins late in the season.

popilius
02-04-2005, 12:40 AM
Keys to the season:

1. Podsednik having a solid year: .288/12 HR/45 SB

2. Dye staying healthy and having a solid year. .270/30 HR/100 RBI

3. El Duque staying healthy. 190-220 innings

4. Takatsu repeating his success.

5. Crede hitting at least .250.
:gulp:

Gosox1917
02-04-2005, 01:21 AM
A fifth starter and utilyzing our speed. Pitchers and starting lineup staying healthy would be super. Also, as a wise coach once told me, "Try not to suck!"

Fredsox
02-04-2005, 06:17 AM
It's gotta be the overall health of the team. The season is so long and we have a lot of guys who have injury in their history who are in key roles for the team. If Hernandez goes down for 3 weeks or more, I think we've got problems. Our lineup is SOOOO dependent on the success of our pitching staff, we just can't afford to lose anyone for more than a few days. If our staff stays healthy I think we win the division going away. If not, I think its gonna be a long season.

Cubbiesuck13
02-04-2005, 06:42 AM
We got to be selective at the plate. If our top of the order guys don't get on base on the regular then we will surely be worse than last year. And if we can't come through with runners on and two out we will be worse than last year. This team has a TON of iffs but they can be a whole bunch better than last year if a few of those iffs come out positive.

nccwsfan
02-04-2005, 07:20 AM
Podsednik- can he get back to being a .350 OBP or above player? It will be very important for the White Sox to have an established leadoff hitter.

Thomas- Big Hurt needs to get back into the lineup as soon as possible. His presence in the lineup will do wonders.

Dye- can he remain healthy for a longer period of time in 2005?

Rowand- was last year a fluke or will he continue his success. There's no guarantee that he'll show up again in 2005.

Contreras/Hernandez- need to have consistency out of them.

Takatsu- very important key. If he continues his success in 2005 the Sox will be fine, but if he's been scouted/"figured out" and struggles it could make for a dicey situation in the bullpen.


:smile: I'm optimistic that most of these questions will be answered to our liking :smile:

cubhater
02-04-2005, 07:49 AM
Keeping Willie Harris away from out right fielder!

There's no reason why we shouldn't control the Central as long as we're healthy.

Crede needs to put up decent offensive numbers.

gosox41
02-04-2005, 09:23 AM
The Sox have a good mix coming into the season. It is refreshing to see a new roster being put together, because we know what the old standbys brought us year in and year out. Given the roster and its new look, what are the main things that need to happen for the Sox to pull this thing off?
I'll start by saying that Orlando Hernandez needs to stay healthy and consistent. If he keeps his 2004 numbers over a season, we're looking at a good starter. I believe Garland may come closer to being a strong pitcher this year, and I'd like to see the #5 type numbers go to Contreras as far as the needed wins and innings. If El Duque puts a strong season together, we've got a good shot at doing some things.

What are your keys to the season?

There are many question marks for this team. But if things go right, then KW has built a team that should contend for the playoffs. Here are some of the question marks:

1. Can Hernandez stay healthy. There's no dount he'll pitch well if he is.

2. Will Jose Contreras become coachable. He had a couple of good starts for the Sox last season and is long on potential but is far from stable.

3. Which S-Pod do we see? If he's the 2004 version, it's not good. If he can post at the minimum a .340 OBP and maintain his high stolen base % I'm happy.

4. Was last year a career you for A-Row? It's going to be difficult to maintain those 2004 numbers, though he isn't the AAAA OF some people here think of him as.

5. Frank needs to be healthy. He still is the heart of the offense.

6. Can PK repeat his year last year? I doubt it but certainly hope so.


Those are the biggest questions facing the team IMHO.


Bob

CarlosMay'sThumb
02-04-2005, 09:24 AM
Unfortunately, the only way I see this team competing with the Twins is if most of the players play way above expectations.

Hernandez and Contreras have to do what they have rarely done - and do it at the ends of their careers - pitch consistently well.

Thomas has to play an entire season healthy - not likely.

Crede has to produce. (stop laughing).

Podsednik has to play like year one, not year two. Remember, he's older than C. Lee and has a very mixed track record of a grand total of 2 years.

Iguchi or Harris have to solve major league pitching.

Rowand has to be the real deal - I'm not sure yet.

Objectively, it's unlikely all of these things will fall the Sox' way and, more likely, these players will play at a level that they're expected to play at. I don't see how they overtake the Twins.

mweflen
02-04-2005, 11:03 AM
1. Health of rotation
2. Consistency from top of order (Pods/Gucci)
3. One other bopper besides Konerko stepping up (Frank/Carl/Dye, whoever)

Dan H
02-04-2005, 11:48 AM
Keys to the season:

1. Podsednik having a solid year: .288/12 HR/45 SB

2. Dye staying healthy and having a solid year. .270/30 HR/100 RBI

3. El Duque staying healthy. 190-220 innings

4. Takatsu repeating his success.

5. Crede hitting at least .250.
:gulp:

I agree with this. If the top three in this list are met, I don't see how the Sox won't win their division. Number 4 is important since it is hard to contend without a decent closer. I am not holding my breath on #5.

Baby Fisk
02-04-2005, 11:51 AM
Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen.
Yup, yup, yup.

Palehose13
02-04-2005, 11:57 AM
Podsednik has to play like year one, not year two. Remember, he's older than C. Lee and has a very mixed track record of a grand total of 2 years.



Yeah, that 3 months and 2 days really makes him so much older. :kukoo: And you know how those foreign players are...CLee may actually be 35!

mdep524
02-04-2005, 12:28 PM
IMO there are two HUGE keys to 2005:

Scott Podsednik and Jose Contreras.

I feel pretty confident that other areas of this team will live up to their billing, or at the least be good enough to get us through the Central. The bullpen will be a solid (if unspectacular- but who says your bullpen needs to be spectacular?) strength, the power guys- Konerko, Dye, Everett and Thomas will get the job done, the defense will be strong and Buehrle and Garcia will anchor the starting staff.

Podsednik needs to step up and have a great OBP. The stolen bases are nice, but the OBP is much, much more important. If he can get on base at a nice .350+ clip, the Sox offense will have the opportunity to create so many runs. If his OBP is down around .310 again, the offense don't look that different than last year's solo homer model. Iguchi plays into this too, we need out 1 and 2 hitters to get on base!

As for Contreras, everyone knows I don't like the guy. I think he lacks intelligence, confidence, poise and has a huge contract. Yes, he has "potentially dominant" stuff, but I'll take a guy who doesn't have "dominant" stuff but knows how to pitch- Buehrle, Moyer, Maddux- anyday. Boy, I hope he can work with Ozzie or Coop or El Duque to turn things around, and I think there is a reasonable chance that can happen. So he is the key- if he can have a productive season, he'll give the Sox three legitimate solid starters (I like El Duque a lot, but you have to expect significant injury time a la when we counted on Cal Eldred in 2001 and 2001).

As it is, if advancing in the playoffs is the aspiration, I think one starter is going to have to step up beside Buehrle and Garcia to give the Sox a 'big three.' The Sox are positioned well here in that there are plenty of options- Garland, Hernandez, Contreras, BMac, and we have the resources to trade for Ben Sheets or whomever else becomes available midseason to put us over the top.

..Damn, I can't wait for the season to start! :D:

ja1022
02-04-2005, 01:18 PM
The health of Everett and Dye are also key. All indications are that Frank won't be active to start the season and that Everett will DH. I'd love to see a situation develop where Frank returns healthy and Ozzie has a bitch of a time figuring out how to keep Everett in the line up. If Rowand continues to produce, Dye and Everett stay healthy and Everett performs like he did five and six years ago, you could see Podsednik become an off the bench guy like Dave Roberts last year for Boston. There is a ton of value in a guy like that. It would actually be a good thing if Podsednik was forced to the bench due to someone elses strong performance.

Lip Man 1
02-04-2005, 01:37 PM
The main keys to the season on a team full of question marks are in general:

* Health - particularly to the starting rotation

* If Aaron Rowand can perform anywhere close to last year

* And if someone, anyone can do the job at second base. For all the comments about Iguchi the fact is no one knows what he'll do at the major league level. He could be the next Icihiro or the next Kaz Matsui.

What I found interesting about reading the comments was the fact that a number of fans have many different and valid ones. That just tells you how much of the 2005 Sox season is a crapshoot. They could be very good or they could be very bad depending on how all these question marks are answered.

Lip

ja1022
02-04-2005, 02:01 PM
That just tells you how much of the 2005 Sox season is a crapshoot. They could be very good or they could be very bad depending on how all these question marks are answered.
Lip

Very true, and the same can be said for every team, every year. Impending Cliche Alert: That's why they play the games.

Lip Man 1
02-04-2005, 02:08 PM
Ja:

With respect that's not true. Certain teams with higher payrolls have the ability to get the depth needed in quantity and quality to make injuries, slumps, off nights and such less of a factor.

That's just the reality of the situation.

Lip

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 02:13 PM
If Posednik and Dye DONT HIT for Average and ONBase .......
were in trouble ......

You never want to enter the season With too many question marks,
as it almost Guarantees you wont make the PostSeason, something the SOX
still havnt figured out. YES, this season is a crapshoot,
but we have better chances with these particular question marks,
than at any other time since 1994.

FarWestChicago
02-04-2005, 02:15 PM
Ja:

With respect that's not true. Certain teams with higher payrolls have the ability to get the depth needed in quantity and quality to make injuries, slumps, off nights and such less of a factor.

That's just the reality of the situation.

LipYou're absolutlely right, Lip. All games in all pro sports leagues should be suspended and the standings should be determined by payroll. There is no need to play the games.

Here's a tip. Think before you type. Gawd. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

idseer
02-04-2005, 02:16 PM
If Posednik and Dye DONT HIT for Average and ONBase .......
were in trouble ......

we do have a backup with these guys tho ... at least if thomas doesn't take too long getting back. and i doubt they both go into the tank together (although with the sox luck you never know).
my main concern is with the health of the staff. even with problems at the plate good pitching will keep you in the hunt.

Palehose13
02-04-2005, 02:22 PM
* And if someone, anyone can do the job at second base. For all the comments about Iguchi the fact is no one knows what he'll do at the major league level. He could be the next Icihiro or the next Kaz Matsui.


Of course I would love Ichiro numbers from second base, but I'll take Kaz's abd wouldn't be very disappointed:

.272 BA, .331 OBP, 7 HR, 32 2B, and 14 SB.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 02:42 PM
You're absolutlely right, Lip. All games in all pro sports leagues should be suspended and the standings should be determined by payroll. There is no need to play the games.

Here's a tip. Think before you type. Gawd. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif


I think what Lip was getting at, was with the Question marks the SOX have,
if Pods, Dye, Everett, Iguchi, Vizcaino, Contreras COLLECTIVELY dont play well,
the SOX dont have the $$$$$$$$ (self-imposed mind you) to go out and
replace the bad parts MidSeason with better players. Remember in 2000,
after the SOX Pummelled the Yankees 4 straight games? The Yankees went out and Overhauled their team right then and there. The White SOX? they wouldve kept going til the Offseason before NOT making any move, or Creating more holes ........ :smile:

Chrisaway
02-04-2005, 02:44 PM
Frank

StillMissOzzie
02-04-2005, 02:52 PM
Scoring more runs than the opposition about 60% of the time.

Seriously, though.
1)Will this change from big ball to small ball & speed translate to more runs or not?
2) Will Dye and El Duque stay healthy? If Borchard is back in RF and Garland has to move back to #4 and suspect-of-the-week is back at #5, we got trouble.
3) Will Iguchi (sp?) be the real deal? If we're back with Willie at 2B, we may have trouble.
4) Will Rowand be the real deal?
5) Will we get the 2003 Podzilla or the newer and improved 2004 model? He's gotta get on base and steal to create RBI opportunities.

SMO
:gulp:

Mickster
02-04-2005, 03:09 PM
2) Will Dye and El Duque stay healthy? If Borchard is back in RF and Garland has to move back to #4 and suspect-of-the-week is back at #5, we got trouble.


If Dye were to get injured, what makes you believe that Borchard will be the one to replace him considering he will not even be on the 25 man roster? If Dye were to be injured, you have a Timo, Gload or Everett who could replace Dye with much better numbers than LTP.

We also have Hermanson who could start (not that I like it, mind you) but it is still better than your so-called "suspect-of-the-week".

The bottom line is that this team has some depth, not a $20M bench mind you, but serviceable depth at every position less SS.

OEO Magglio
02-04-2005, 03:36 PM
Health.

Ol' No. 2
02-04-2005, 03:49 PM
Ja:

With respect that's not true. Certain teams with higher payrolls have the ability to get the depth needed in quantity and quality to make injuries, slumps, off nights and such less of a factor.

That's just the reality of the situation.

LipLip, the Sox have made mid-season moves, taking on payroll in each of the last two seasons. Right now their payroll stands at $72M. Even if they acquire a $10M player at the deadline, 2/3 of the season is gone and he'll only cost them $3.3M. Given the last two years, I don't see any reason to say that JR would not do the same this year.

gosox41
02-04-2005, 04:01 PM
The main keys to the season on a team full of question marks are in general:

* Health - particularly to the starting rotation

* If Aaron Rowand can perform anywhere close to last year

* And if someone, anyone can do the job at second base. For all the comments about Iguchi the fact is no one knows what he'll do at the major league level. He could be the next Icihiro or the next Kaz Matsui.

What I found interesting about reading the comments was the fact that a number of fans have many different and valid ones. That just tells you how much of the 2005 Sox season is a crapshoot. They could be very good or they could be very bad depending on how all these question marks are answered.

Lip

One can say that about all the teams on the AL Central and most around the majors.


Bob

gosox41
02-04-2005, 04:03 PM
I think what Lip was getting at, was with the Question marks the SOX have,
if Pods, Dye, Everett, Iguchi, Vizcaino, Contreras COLLECTIVELY dont play well,
the SOX dont have the $$$$$$$$ (self-imposed mind you) to go out and
replace the bad parts MidSeason with better players. Remember in 2000,
after the SOX Pummelled the Yankees 4 straight games? The Yankees went out and Overhauled their team right then and there. The White SOX? they wouldve kept going til the Offseason before NOT making any move, or Creating more holes ........ :smile:

I remember in 2000 the Sox acquired Baines and C. Johnson during the season.


Bob

fuzzy_patters
02-04-2005, 04:05 PM
Ja:

With respect that's not true. Certain teams with higher payrolls have the ability to get the depth needed in quantity and quality to make injuries, slumps, off nights and such less of a factor.

That's just the reality of the situation.

Lip

That is correct, Lip. Many people on here do not want to be honest with themselves, but your point is spot on.

The Minnesotta Twins are a perfect example. Like most teams in baseball, they will require some luck in order to play in October. Should they lose one of their starting pitchers, they would be a mediocre team and would have to hope Detroit, Cleveland, and the Sox also face the same bad luck. That is just the reality of the situation for most of the teams in baseball.

Now look at the New York Yankees. Their payroll is close to $200 million. If they were to lose on of their pitchers, they have both the depth and the resources to find a replacement.

Lip's point was that the baseball season is not a crapshoot for every team. Anyone that is honest with themselves and has followed baseball in the last 10 years knows this is true. Gawd. Think before you type.

idseer
02-04-2005, 04:21 PM
That is correct, Lip. Many people on here do not want to be honest with themselves, but your point is spot on.

The Minnesotta Twins are a perfect example. Like most teams in baseball, they will require some luck in order to play in October. Should they lose one of their starting pitchers, they would be a mediocre team and would have to hope Detroit, Cleveland, and the Sox also face the same bad luck. That is just the reality of the situation for most of the teams in baseball.

Now look at the New York Yankees. Their payroll is close to $200 million. If they were to lose on of their pitchers, they have both the depth and the resources to find a replacement.

Lip's point was that the baseball season is not a crapshoot for every team. Anyone that is honest with themselves and has followed baseball in the last 10 years knows this is true. Gawd. Think before you type.

<thinking>

idseer
02-04-2005, 04:22 PM
<thinking>

i agree. the sox have to be somewhat lucky to get to the post season. whereas other major market teams have to be UNlucky to miss it.
it's not black and white but i think it is a valid point.

ja1022
02-04-2005, 04:23 PM
I remember in 2000 the Sox acquired Baines and C. Johnson during the season.
Bob

And Alomar and Everett in 2003 and 2004.

CarlosMay'sThumb
02-04-2005, 04:35 PM
Yeah, that 3 months and 2 days really makes him so much older. :kukoo: And you know how those foreign players are...CLee may actually be 35!

My point is that Carlos has 6 quality seasons in the majors and Pods has 1 - and Carlos is younger. It's a 50-50 shot whether Pods will be able to repeat his 2003 production this year - and it's a virtual lock that Carlos will be able to repeat his.

Like most of this team, Pods will have to exceed expectations for the Sox to compete with the Twins. In light of the fact that the Twins have won the division for 3 years in a row, it's safe to say that all they have to do is meet expectations.

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 04:47 PM
You're absolutlely right, Lip. All games in all pro sports leagues should be suspended and the standings should be determined by payroll. There is no need to play the games.

Here's a tip. Think before you type. Gawd. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif


Thank you. I'm glad I'm not the only one who's tired of his whining.

LVSoxFan
02-04-2005, 04:47 PM
For whatever it's worth, my baseball stat-crazy co-worker who's not a Sox fan said even before all the big trades: as Crede goes, so go the Sox this year.

I see it in a more positive light: in other words, if Crede has a monster year, the Sox will crush. If he has another 2004, we still have a chance, but who knows?

Here's the one thing that must be key, which people forget about when fixating on the Twins: winning out West. Oakland and Anaheim have been houses of horror for us over the past three years--didn't matter if it was in the high-flyin' first half or the sliding down second. If we can't win out there who cares if we beat the Twins?
And this lineup oughta start pounding the Tigers on a regular basis, instead of inexplicably losing to them season after season.

Palehose13
02-04-2005, 04:51 PM
My point is that Carlos has 6 quality seasons in the majors and Pods has 1 - and Carlos is younger. It's a 50-50 shot whether Pods will be able to repeat his 2003 production this year - and it's a virtual lock that Carlos will be able to repeat his.

Like most of this team, Pods will have to exceed expectations for the Sox to compete with the Twins. In light of the fact that the Twins have won the division for 3 years in a row, it's safe to say that all they have to do is meet expectations.

My point is that you made it seem that Pods is 3-4 years older than Carlos, when in actuality he is only 3 months older.

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 04:55 PM
In my mind, there are two keys to this season:

1. Health, most notably where Frank Thomas, Jermaine Dye, and the pitching staff is concerned.

2. Players meet expectations. The Sox biggest problem over the past few seasons has not been a low payroll, injuries, or even Jerry Manuel's lineup tinkering. The biggest downfall I've witnessed with the Sox has been several players tanking and brining the rest of the team down with them.

In 2002, Frank struggled at times because he was still bothered by the triceps injury suffered during 2001. His batting average plummeted to .239 at the AS Break. To make matters worse, the Todd Ritchie trade was a complete disaster, and Royce Clayton proved that he had no business handling a baseball bat. In 2003, Konerko had a bad first half because he was thinking too much. He was hitting below .200 as late as July 4. In both 2003 and 2004, the Sox got little or nothing from Billy Koch, forcing KW to trade him. Joe Crede spent portions of '03 and last season with his head lodged in his ass.

And so on, and so on...

The point is that the Sox can't afford to have players sucking. As all of the above examples illustrate, teams that have players who struggle generally don't win consistently. When one guy isn't pulling his weight, the rest of the team may begin to have problems. The Sox don't need anybody to have a breakout season or a career year. What they need is for everyone to do his job the way he's supposed to. The rest will take care of itself.

CarlosMay'sThumb
02-04-2005, 05:03 PM
My point is that you made it seem that Pods is 3-4 years older than Carlos, when in actuality he is only 3 months older.

Well, then maybe you should read the rest of the sentence.

"Podsednik has to play like year one, not year two. Remember, he's older than C. Lee and has a very mixed track record of a grand total of 2 years."

Pods IS older than Carlos and his track record IS mixed and short in comparison. I don't know how much simpler I can make this for you.:kukoo:

Palehose13
02-04-2005, 05:09 PM
Well, then maybe you should read the rest of the sentence.

"Podsednik has to play like year one, not year two. Remember, he's older than C. Lee and has a very mixed track record of a grand total of 2 years."

Pods IS older than Carlos and his track record IS mixed and short in comparison. I don't know how much simpler I can make this for you.:kukoo:

Nevermind. You're right. I'm a complete idiot. Pods age is a huge factor. My turn to try to get this through to you one last time. Why even state that Pods is older? 3 freaking months? How about saying that Carlos has more experience?

BTW...why is it so guaranteed that CLee will have a monster year in Milwaukee? Who is going to protect him in that lineup?

That's it I'm done.

FarWestChicago
02-04-2005, 06:29 PM
Gawd. Think before you type.I do. And you should also try thinking for yourself instead of being a FOLIP.

Jurr
02-04-2005, 06:30 PM
Nevermind. You're right. I'm a complete idiot. Pods age is a huge factor. My turn to try to get this through to you one last time. Why even state that Pods is older? 3 freaking months? How about saying that Carlos has more experience?

BTW...why is it so guaranteed that CLee will have a monster year in Milwaukee? Who is going to protect him in that lineup?

That's it I'm done.

Alright guys..enough of the bickering. Not worth the effort. The deal with Carlos is that he was a guy that wasn't putting the little things ahead of his own desires to put up huge numbers, and that was hurting the team as a whole. People got so enthralled with their power numbers that they forgot that there's a lot of little things that can be done to make a game go in the W column.
Give me a guy that can get a bunt down and can cover more ground out in left field. Give me a guy that can start an inning with a stolen base. That's what we got. Love ya, 'Los, but it's over.

Lip Man 1
02-04-2005, 06:44 PM
West:

That was not a dig at Uncle Jerry. Stop reading into things all the time.

Fact: a team with a larger payroll often does NOT have as many question marks or as serious as question marks as teams with smaller payrolls. And they in fact DO have the ability to overcome injuries, slumps, bad deals a lot easier then teams that don't have as big a payroll.

:?:

Fuzzy: Remember West would much rather you be a Friend Of Uncle Jerry! :smile:

Lip

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:07 PM
Maybe what were really saying is the REAL KEY to the SOX Season in 2005,
is if something should go wrong, will the SOX react quickly enough.
I like this team, only because now we have some Options at several
positions. They have a MUCH better chance to do something, compared
to 2004. I still cant believe we went into the season without a real
#4 or #5 Pitcher. If Iguchi
doesnt work, Harris will be tried again. If Dye doesnt work out, (and
I told Everett personally we'll be seeing him out in RF soon) we can
fall back on Carl Everett. There is some reason for optimism. :D:

FarWestChicago
02-04-2005, 07:21 PM
Fact: a team with a larger payroll often does NOT have as many question marks or as serious as question marks as teams with smaller payrolls. And they in fact DO have the ability to overcome injuries, slumps, bad deals a lot easier then teams that don't have as big a payroll.

:?:

Fuzzy: Remember West would much rather you be a Friend Of Uncle Jerry! :smile:

LipAnd you still need to play the games, Lip. Your beloved King George hasn't won the World Series in a while. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/eek.gif

Lip, please find one post anywhere where I have said anything about Reinsy being a good owner. Hell, I made the goddamned Reinsy tag with the derisive code. Believe it or not, it's possible to not be happy with Reinsy's ownership of the Sox without acting like a raging psychotic. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

OEO Magglio
02-04-2005, 07:28 PM
West:

That was not a dig at Uncle Jerry. Stop reading into things all the time.

Fact: a team with a larger payroll often does NOT have as many question marks or as serious as question marks as teams with smaller payrolls. And they in fact DO have the ability to overcome injuries, slumps, bad deals a lot easier then teams that don't have as big a payroll.

:?:

Fuzzy: Remember West would much rather you be a Friend Of Uncle Jerry! :smile:

Lip

Of course it is Lip, everyone knows that. The fact is you don't have to complain about it every single minute, a 72 million dollar payroll isn't all that bad, it's not yankee like but it's not dray like either.

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 07:37 PM
And you still need to play the games, Lip. Your beloved King George hasn't won the World Series in a while. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/eek.gif

Lip, please find one post anywhere where I have said anything about Reinsy being a good owner. Hell, I made the goddamned Reinsy tag with the derisive code. Believe it or not, it's possible to not be happy with Reinsy's ownership of the Sox without acting like a raging psychotic. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

You're making too much sense, West. That's not allowed in Lip's little playland.

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 07:38 PM
Of course it is Lip, everyone knows that. The fact is you don't have to complain about it every single minute, a 72 million dollar payroll isn't all that bad, it's not yankee like but it's not dray like either.

I don't think Lip will be happy until Reinsdorf is dead, and the Sox are under new ownership. The thing of it is, the next owner will probably be even worse than JR, and Lip will spend his days whining about how good things were with the Chairman around.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:45 PM
I don't think Lip will be happy until Reinsdorf is dead, and the Sox are under new ownership. The thing of it is, the next owner will probably be even worse than JR.

I dont see how we could get a Worse Owner ........ I really dont.

Until they win the World Series with Uncle Jerry, he is going to Forever be
known as the Owner that Cost (ironic I use that word in this sentence)
The White Sox a World Series Appearance back in 1994. Sure, im living
in the past, but next to 1983 and 2003, that was our best chance. :whiner:

OEO Magglio
02-04-2005, 07:48 PM
I dont see how we could get a Worse Owner ........ I really dont.
Look within our own division at the team who keeps winning the darn thing and you'll find a much worse owner.

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 07:50 PM
Look within our own division at the team who keeps winning the darn thing and you'll find a much worse owner.

There is also the ownership group that runs the 49ers to consider, as well as George Shinn, who has run the Hornets franchise into the ground. I've never been a Jerry Reinsdorf fan, but things could be much worse around here.

balke
02-04-2005, 07:50 PM
Alright guys..enough of the bickering. Not worth the effort. The deal with Carlos is that he was a guy that wasn't putting the little things ahead of his own desires to put up huge numbers, and that was hurting the team as a whole. People got so enthralled with their power numbers that they forgot that there's a lot of little things that can be done to make a game go in the W column.
Give me a guy that can get a bunt down and can cover more ground out in left field. Give me a guy that can start an inning with a stolen base. That's what we got. Love ya, 'Los, but it's over.

I never bought into that crap. I don't see how hitting the ball consistantly, getting on base every game instead of going for the long ball gets you that reputation. Carlos was doing the little things early in the season when he wasn't needed as a power guy. He often got the ball rolling in a 6 run inning.

It was when Maggs and Frank went down that Carlos got his power #'s, and that's when we needed his power #'s. Carlos was our best all around player last season. He hit Hr's, and maintained a .300 average.

I understand getting pods, I know NOBODY could bunt last season, not just Lee. So let's not pull the wool over anyone's eyes, Carlos wasn't selfish, he was expensive. We got a lot in return for him, hopefully a quick bunter. Don't fool yourself into thinking Carlos was selfish, or that Pods is a better player. If it were Pods for Lee alone, half of us wouldn't attend a single game next season. We used his salary to fill more holes.

Carlos will be missed, he'll never be selfish.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:51 PM
Look within our own division at the team who keeps winning the darn thing and you'll find a much worse owner.

Well, that team will eventually be FOLDED, and that owner wont be around.
Your right, the Twinks owner is pretty bad. He is still being ridiculed
for not drafting The Messiah. now he has a 22 yr old DH on his team.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:52 PM
There is also the ownership group that runs the 49ers to consider, as well as George Shinn, who has run the Hornets franchise into the ground. I've never been a Jerry Reinsdorf fan, but things could be much worse around here.

I meant to say Baseball wise ............

RKMeibalane
02-04-2005, 07:54 PM
I meant to say Baseball wise ............

David Glass is much worse. He has more than enough money to turn the Royals into a dynasty, yet he won't do a thing to make that team better. At least JR wants to win. His problem is that he wants to do it his way, but he does want to win.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:56 PM
............ Carlos wasn't selfish, he was expensive.

Carlos will be missed, he'll never be selfish.


:reinsy (Door Slams .........Engine Starts .....Tires Squeal)

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 07:59 PM
David Glass is much worse. He has more than enough money to turn the Royals into a dynasty, yet he won't do a thing to make that team better. At least JR wants to win. His problem is that he wants to do it his way, but he does want to win.

Interesting you should mention him. The reason I will stick with Uncle Jerry
is because Jerry Rein$dorf has had MORE opportunities to win it all, and
has tried every single time to Run-For-The-Kitchen when it came time to
Pay for the "Dinner Tab", only to get burned. Thats a good point,
he wants to do it his way is right. But he wont learn.

The Royals have let some good players get away, your also right, but im not
sure thats as Bitter a Pill to Swallow as 1994.

Hangar18
02-04-2005, 08:11 PM
Good points mentioning the Twinks and Royals with bad owners.

Bud Selig had to be one of the more worse owners, simply because
the guy was on the take and in everyones pocket. He pocketed
money from the luxury taxes, and didnt spend it on his Brewers.
He Tipped the Twinks that they were going
to be Folded, Ruined a Rivalry between the Sox and Brewers,
Somehow muffed an All-Star Game, helped oversee "expansion",
then immediately tried to "contract" two teams,
Turned the otherwise FAIR process
of scheduling AllStar Games to every team into a REWARD for the highest
Bidders and as a means to Quiet teams that are dissenting to his
Build-a-Stadium-or-Die Edict. He had a chance get baseball on track
with the last CBA agreement, but instead sat on the sidelines and let
Uncle Jerry and the rest of the Upper Crust of MLB vote for the mimimum
4 yr agreement, merely putting off another Bitter war with the players
union, mark my words. Yeah, hes pretty bad too.

PAPChiSox729
02-05-2005, 12:54 AM
I understand getting pods, I know NOBODY could bunt last season, not just Lee. So let's not pull the wool over anyone's eyes, Carlos wasn't selfish, he was expensive. We got a lot in return for him, hopefully a quick bunter. Don't fool yourself into thinking Carlos was selfish, or that Pods is a better player. If it were Pods for Lee alone, half of us wouldn't attend a single game next season. We used his salary to fill more holes.

Carlos will be missed, he'll never be selfish.

Carlos was one of our most complete players. But we knew that going into the offseason that either Lee or Konerko would be traded. I never thought once of Carlos as being a shellfish player. And you are right, if it were Carlos for Pods straight up, I probably would be seriously questioning why I am a fan of this team. But instead of Carlos roaming LF for 150+ games, we have Pierzynski bolstering the bottom of the order, Dye and Iguchi filling in what where glaring holes, and El Duque pitching every 5 days (assuming he isn't on the DL). It will be strange not seeing Carlos. Then again, it will be strange not seeing Jose or Maggs in the lineup. But I do like this team better then the team of last season. And without the Lee-Pods trade, this team might very well have stayed pretty much the same.

idseer
02-05-2005, 09:39 AM
..........And you are right, if it were Carlos for Pods straight up, I probably would be seriously questioning why I am a fan of this team. But instead of Carlos roaming LF for 150+ games, we have Pierzynski bolstering the bottom of the order, Dye and Iguchi filling in what where glaring holes, and El Duque pitching every 5 days (assuming he isn't on the DL). ........

AND viscaino! i believe he alone will mean 3 or 4 extra victories this year.

it's funny how some people keep looking at that deal as if it were lee for pods straight up.

PaleHoseGeorge
02-05-2005, 09:57 AM
I can't believe all the silly things written here in response to the original question. Second base is going to determine the Sox season???
:kukoo:

It's pitching. Especially starting pitching. It has always been pitching and it will always be pitching.

The single-most important thing the Sox did was load up on arms for the starting rotation. I'm not sure Hernandez will stay healthy, or Contreras will pitch effectively, or Garland will get a clue, or Garcia will keep the ball in the park, or even if Buehrle will pitch well enough to be our lone all-star representative either. NOBODY KNOWS, and anybody who claims they know is a delusional liar.

Here's what I do know. The Sox have given themselves more wiggle room to work around sub-par performances on the pitching staff than at any other time since 1994 when a washed up Scott Sanderson was #5 and former starter Kirk McCaskill was relegated to the bullpen. This is worth a lot in the W-L column.

It should go without saying that a rested bullpen is worth a lot more than a tired one. The Sox figure to be stronger here, too, precisely because of the improvement in the rotation.

We had better get more from this new pitching staff than we got from the old staff because this ballclub isn't nearly as dangerous with the bats.

For better or worse this is Ozzie's team built precisely to his specifications. We'll see...

santo=dorf
02-05-2005, 12:24 PM
I'm sick of hearing this "Freddy's a flyball pitcher" or "Freddy gives up too many homers." Let's look at his stats with the Sox and compare them to Buehrle and Garland.


Freddy home: 9 HR in 58.2 IP, 6.52 IP/HR
Freddy away: 5 HR in 44.1 IP, 8.87 IP/HR

Buehrle home: 22 HR in 129 IP, 5.86 IP/HR
Buehrle away: 11 HR in 116.1 IP, 10.58 IP/HR

Garland home: 16 HR in 94 IP, 5.88 IP/HR
Garland away: 18 HR in 123 IP, 6.83 IP/HR

K/9:
Garcia: 8.91
Buehrle: 6.05
Garland: 4.69

GO/AO
Garcia: 1.35
Buehrle: 1.46
Garland: 1.25

The pitcher that we should be worried about keeping the ball in the park is Garland, not Garcia.

The Wunsch
02-05-2005, 12:40 PM
It looks like everyone has completely given up on him ever having a break out year. As I recall, last year, lots of people were calling him the key to success. I think that means we're in a lot better shape this year

surfdudes
02-05-2005, 12:59 PM
I can't believe all the silly things written here in response to the original question. Second base is going to determine the Sox season???
:kukoo:

It's pitching. Especially starting pitching. It has always been pitching and it will always be pitching.

The single-most important thing the Sox did was load up on arms for the starting rotation. I'm not sure Hernandez will stay healthy, or Contreras will pitch effectively, or Garland will get a clue, or Garcia will keep the ball in the park, or even if Buehrle will pitch well enough to be our lone all-star representative either. NOBODY KNOWS, and anybody who claims they know is a delusional liar.

Here's what I do know. The Sox have given themselves more wiggle room to work around sub-par performances on the pitching staff than at any other time since 1994 when a washed up Scott Sanderson was #5 and former starter Kirk McCaskill was relegated to the bullpen. This is worth a lot in the W-L column.

It should go without saying that a rested bullpen is worth a lot more than a tired one. The Sox figure to be stronger here, too, precisely because of the improvement in the rotation.

We had better get more from this new pitching staff than we got from the old staff because this ballclub isn't nearly as dangerous with the bats.

For better or worse this is Ozzie's team built precisely to his specifications. We'll see...

Exactly.............

No big bats, bunts, defense, baserunning prowess, range or lack of range in the outfield could have made a hill of beans difference for all the bullpen/closer cave-ins, or the non existant fifth starter woes we experienced last year. If our new starting rotation throws some innings, and we we get any decent middle/late relief, I don't think we will miss all that power that we lost this offseason....

flo-B-flo
02-05-2005, 01:03 PM
I can't believe all the silly things written here in response to the original question. Second base is going to determine the Sox season???
:kukoo:

It's pitching. Especially starting pitching. It has always been pitching and it will always be pitching.

The single-most important thing the Sox did was load up on arms for the starting rotation. I'm not sure Hernandez will stay healthy, or Contreras will pitch effectively, or Garland will get a clue, or Garcia will keep the ball in the park, or even if Buehrle will pitch well enough to be our lone all-star representative either. NOBODY KNOWS, and anybody who claims they know is a delusional liar.

Here's what I do know. The Sox have given themselves more wiggle room to work around sub-par performances on the pitching staff than at any other time since 1994 when a washed up Scott Sanderson was #5 and former starter Kirk McCaskill was relegated to the bullpen. This is worth a lot in the W-L column.

It should go without saying that a rested bullpen is worth a lot more than a tired one. The Sox figure to be stronger here, too, precisely because of the improvement in the rotation.

We had better get more from this new pitching staff than we got from the old staff because this ballclub isn't nearly as dangerous with the bats.

For better or worse this is Ozzie's team built precisely to his specifications. We'll see... PITCHING always will be your ticket to the playoffs and beyond. If we don't get MANY outstanding performances from the starters it will be another long season. I also believe Vizcaino will be a factor negative or positive. Hopefully positive.

Paulwny
02-05-2005, 02:40 PM
The sox finding first rate replacements when/if El Duque goes down or if Contreras still can't deliver the goods.

gosox41
02-05-2005, 02:45 PM
And you still need to play the games, Lip. Your beloved King George hasn't won the World Series in a while. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/eek.gif

http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

It is funny you mention that. The Yankees had a payroll 50% higher then any other team in 2004 (second was the Red Sox) and they didn't win it all. It's been 3-4 years since they last won a championship and they have lost to teams that spend less then half of what they do. Money may make some things simpler, but it in no way is the key to winning it all.



Bob

gosox41
02-05-2005, 02:49 PM
I dont see how we could get a Worse Owner ........ I really dont.

Until they win the World Series with Uncle Jerry, he is going to Forever be
known as the Owner that Cost (ironic I use that word in this sentence)
The White Sox a World Series Appearance back in 1994. Sure, im living
in the past, but next to 1983 and 2003, that was our best chance. :whiner:

There are a ton worse owners. How do you think Minnesota feels with Pohlad. The lat 3 yaers they've been to the playoffs and attendance has shot up. Yet they haven't increased payroll all that much and are consistently trading off key players. It's Minnesota's excellent scounting and player development that has kept them conpetitive, not the owners willingness to keep more key players around.

In the last 3 years, the Sox payroll has increased dramatically. If you want to blame KW for not getting them past Minnesota that's one thing. But the Sox and Twins had simiar payrolls in '03. In '04 the Sox were about $8-10 mill higher. And in '05 they could be $15 mill higher.


Bob

Lip Man 1
02-05-2005, 07:16 PM
West:

The Yankees have made the playoffs ten straight years...how many times have the Sox made it again?

There's a reason they keep getting there isn't it?

You are an extremely smart and sharp guy... I know you can understand this:

Who has a better chance of getting talent, getting additions at midseason and overcoming injuries: Yankees or Tampa Bay?

Try Red Sox or Twins?

Mets or Nationals? Cardinals or Brewers? Cubs or Pirates?

Shall I continue? :smile:

And again my original comments WERE NOT a slap at Uncle Jerry... even I must give credit to the fact that the payroll is higher then it was four years ago.

My point which you've totally ignored, is that simple logic dictates a team with a 100 million dollar payroll can do much more to avoid the issues that take place during a 162 game season then a team with a 50 million dollar payroll.

That's all, no more, no less. Stop assuming things.

Lip

CWSGuy406
02-05-2005, 09:41 PM
My point is that Carlos has 6 quality seasons in the majors and Pods has 1 - and Carlos is younger. It's a 50-50 shot whether Pods will be able to repeat his 2003 production this year - and it's a virtual lock that Carlos will be able to repeat his.

Like most of this team, Pods will have to exceed expectations for the Sox to compete with the Twins. In light of the fact that the Twins have won the division for 3 years in a row, it's safe to say that all they have to do is meet expectations.

So the Twins lose Koskie and Guzman -- resign Brad Radke, who believe it or not, is really inconsistent year to year -- and do absolutely nothing else, yet are a lock to do as good as last year???

Great logic!

At best, I see the Twinkies doing a game or two worse than they did last season. Radke had his best season as a starter last year, and I don't see him repeating. Santana very well could repeat, he's got some nasty stuff -- but after those two, their rotation is garbage. Silva and Lohse are average, and if they plan on trotting out Mulholland every fifth day, they're in for a lot of trouble.

Are people ignorant just for the purpose of being ignorant, or what?

santo=dorf
02-05-2005, 09:45 PM
Joe Mays will be the fifth starter, and he sucks. except against the Sox. :anon:

CWSGuy406
02-05-2005, 09:48 PM
Alright guys..enough of the bickering. Not worth the effort. The deal with Carlos is that he was a guy that wasn't putting the little things ahead of his own desires to put up huge numbers, and that was hurting the team as a whole. People got so enthralled with their power numbers that they forgot that there's a lot of little things that can be done to make a game go in the W column.
Give me a guy that can get a bunt down and can cover more ground out in left field. Give me a guy that can start an inning with a stolen base. That's what we got. Love ya, 'Los, but it's over.

Lee >>>>>>> Podsednik.

Oh, and Lip -- I'm glad that the Mets and the Orioles have done well with their huge payrolls, too.

Sure, a bigger payroll will give you more wiggle room, more advantage. But I'd say a more important key is a smart GM.

OEO Magglio
02-05-2005, 09:49 PM
Lee >>>>>>> Podsednik.


As and individual.....yes, for this particular team....no.

idiotAllDAWay
02-05-2005, 10:04 PM
well i think we should be the ones that are the lock. why cleveland big deal they are over average and minnesota has lost not gained, we are solid all the way around except maybe at 3rd but Crede may have a big year so how come we are predicted third?

idseer
02-05-2005, 10:47 PM
why do i have this sneaking suspicion that if both el ducky and contrares had been acquired by minnesota most of us would be suggesting they didn't help themselves very much. it would be pretty easy to make a case that neither of these guys should be expected to contribute much at all.

SoxSpeed22
02-05-2005, 10:59 PM
well i think we should be the ones that are the lock. why cleveland big deal they are over average and minnesota has lost not gained, we are solid all the way around except maybe at 3rd but Crede may have a big year so how come we are predicted third?
Calm Down! we are picked to finished 3rd because we are too unproven. Minnesota has proven themselves with strong September charges and as for Cleveland, remember, these are the same morons who picked the talentless Royals to contend in the playoffs last year:cool:
I would much rather we sneak up on people than hype ourselves up and go under expectations.

CWSGuy406
02-05-2005, 11:28 PM
As and individual.....yes, for this particular team....no.

If there was a possibility in which we could swap Lee and Podsednik, and keep the team the same around them, which team would you take? I know I'd take the one with Lee -- put Iguchi in the leadoff role, and I'd bet the worst he does is still better than Podsednik's 2004.

That being said, it obviously couldn't happen, the key being money. I'm just saying, if you could swap the two, I'd take Lee any day over Podsednik.

Also, I still don't get the talk that Lee wasn't a team player. People keep calling him an all or nothing guy, but that's just an uninformed opinion. For all the power Lee provided, he didn't strike out a lot at all. When Maggs and Frank went down, someone was needed to refill the power, Lee probably put it on his shoulders to do that, as well as Konerko probably did the same (which is probably why his power numbers were up, but his average was down). If you believe the butcher job that Ozzie did on Lee, then shame on you -- but that's JMHO.

CWSGuy406
02-05-2005, 11:32 PM
why do i have this sneaking suspicion that if both el ducky and contrares had been acquired by minnesota most of us would be suggesting they didn't help themselves very much. it would be pretty easy to make a case that neither of these guys should be expected to contribute much at all.

Why?

El Duque is a good pitcher. Problem is, he's injury prone -- and old. Those two really don't mix well. That being said, Kenny told us (the fans, the media) that El Duque's pysichal (for some reason, I can't remember how to spell that word right now... :redface: ) was one of the best he's seen.

And, Contreras is a question mark. If he's *on* and has his head on straight, there's no doubt he's as good as any number two pitcher in the league -- he has nasty stuff, and he's built like a horse. Unfortunately, his head isn't always on straight, and he tends to use that splitty too often. He's a total anomaly...

If Minnesota had these two pitchers, they'd be in a lot better situation.

Contreras + El Duque >>> Silva + Lohse

Lip Man 1
02-06-2005, 12:15 AM
CWS 406:

Nine of the top ten payroll teams last year had winning records. Six (and possibly seven depending on your point of view) high payrolls claimed playoff spots last season.

Co-incidence?

Lip

California Sox
02-06-2005, 01:16 AM
I agree with all the posters who said the key was our starting pitching. Buerhle's gutty and a very good #2. Garcia could be a solid #1 (like he was for Seattle last year) or a problem (like he was for Seattle in 2003). God only knows what you're going to get from Contreras and Garland. El Duque... I don't know what to say. He knows how to pitch, if he can stay healthy. But he has been pretty inconsistent at times. Frankly, our pitching could be anything from the strength of the club to a major major weakness.

The problem we face is if one or more of our starters implode, there is no plan B. If Hermanson were a good starter, he'd still be starting. I love McCarthy's potential, but he's had like 8 games above A ball. There's no one at AAA and we don't have room in the payroll to add another starter.

My prediction: If we're in the top 5 in the AL in starter ERA, we'll win the division. If we're in the bottom five, we could be looking up at Detroit. Starting pitching is everything this year.

Ol' No. 2
02-06-2005, 12:15 PM
CWS 406:

Nine of the top ten payroll teams last year had winning records. Six (and possibly seven depending on your point of view) high payrolls claimed playoff spots last season.

Co-incidence?

LipLip, I'm not going to bother quoting actual data from the last 20 years that show how misleading that is. And before you start quoting "Honest Bud" again, I'll throw in a few quotes of my own. The late Doug Pappas also looked into this and published three articles in "Outside the Lines". They're all available on the web. I'll just quote a few snippets.

Report on the Blue Ribbon Panel Report (Summer 2000) (http://roadsidephotos.sabr.org/baseball/blueribbon.htm)

By focusing only on the seasons from 1995 to 1999, the panel has made the link between payroll and performance look stronger than it actually is. In 1994, one year before the selected period, the Montreal Expos had the majors' best record and second-lowest payroll. This season, at press time Toronto, Oakland and San Francisco are contending with the lowest payrolls in their respective divisions, while the Chicago White Sox have the AL's best record but third lowest payroll. Clearly, there's some link between payroll and performance, but it's not as strong as the panel suggests.

Senate Holds Hearing on "Competitive Balance" (Fall 2000) (http://roadsidephotos.sabr.org/baseball/00-4compbal.htm)

Did you sleep through the 2000 season, Bud? In case you missed it:




For the first time in modern history, no team won fewer than 40% or more than 60% of its games.
Three of the 10 highest-payroll teams qualified for the playoffs.
So did three of the 14 lowest-payroll clubs.
Two of the "cheap teams," the Giants and White Sox, finished with the best records in their leagues.
Both Western Division champs, the Giants and Athletics, had the lowest payroll in their divisions.
The Yankees, Exhibit A in any discussion of competitive balance, finished with the majors' ninth best record, 3-1/2 games worse than any other postseason qualifier.
The eight playoff clubs ranked first, third, sixth, 11th, 14th, 17th, 25th and 26th in Opening Day payroll.
The six last-place clubs ranked ninth, 10th, 13th, 16th, 20th, and 30th. In fact, two of the six, Texas and Tampa Bay, spent more than the average payroll of the postseason qualifiers.
Payroll vs. Performance, 2002 (Fall 2002) (http://roadsidephotos.sabr.org/baseball/02-4pay.htm)

With three teams winning over 100 games and three more losing 106, 2002 was not a banner season for competitive balance in Major League Baseball. But as the table below shows, the on-field disparities bore little relation to the payroll differentials among clubs.

So who has more credibility, Bud Selig or Doug Pappas?

Lip Man 1
02-06-2005, 02:09 PM
No. 2:

With respect what does that have to do with last season? Also do we need to restart your discussion with PHG again where you decided it was acceptable to remove certain teams and certain payroll figures?

Lip

santo=dorf
02-06-2005, 02:25 PM
Ever hear of the term "outliers?"

Lip Man 1
02-06-2005, 02:28 PM
Dorf:

I don't know what post you are referring to but if it is mine no I have not.

Lip

santo=dorf
02-06-2005, 02:41 PM
Dorf:

I don't know what post you are referring to but if it is mine no I have not.

Lip

It's a reference to statistical analysis.


Outliers. Outliers are atypical (by definition), infrequent observations. Because of the way in which the regression line is determined (especially the fact that it is based on minimizing not the sum of simple distances but the sum of squares of distances of data points from the line), outliers have a profound influence on the slope of the regression line and consequently on the value of the correlation coefficient. A single outlier is capable of considerably changing the slope of the regression line and, consequently, the value of the correlation, as demonstrated in the following example. Note, that as shown on that illustration, just one outlier can be entirely responsible for a high value of the correlation that otherwise (without the outlier) would be close to zero. Needless to say, one should never base important conclusions on the value of the correlation coefficient alone (i.e., examining the respective scatterplot is always recommended).

Jurr
02-06-2005, 03:25 PM
If there was a possibility in which we could swap Lee and Podsednik, and keep the team the same around them, which team would you take? I know I'd take the one with Lee -- put Iguchi in the leadoff role, and I'd bet the worst he does is still better than Podsednik's 2004.

That being said, it obviously couldn't happen, the key being money. I'm just saying, if you could swap the two, I'd take Lee any day over Podsednik.

Also, I still don't get the talk that Lee wasn't a team player. People keep calling him an all or nothing guy, but that's just an uninformed opinion. For all the power Lee provided, he didn't strike out a lot at all. When Maggs and Frank went down, someone was needed to refill the power, Lee probably put it on his shoulders to do that, as well as Konerko probably did the same (which is probably why his power numbers were up, but his average was down). If you believe the butcher job that Ozzie did on Lee, then shame on you -- but that's JMHO.

You've gotta remember something...we had lots of holes, and we ended up trading Lee for a left fielder, a good solid relief guy, a catcher, and a starting pitcher, while still finding enough money to fill second base. All by trading ONE guy. I loved Carlos, but we had too many holes to fill to be paying a guy 8 M a year to be more driven by personal stats than winning games.

Ol' No. 2
02-06-2005, 10:47 PM
No. 2:

With respect what does that have to do with last season? Also do we need to restart your discussion with PHG again where you decided it was acceptable to remove certain teams and certain payroll figures?

LipWhy do you only want to talk about last year? Maybe because the year before, the Marlins won it all with the 5th lowest payroll? And 2 of the 6 division winners were from the bottom half of the league in payroll. Maybe you'd rather focus on 2002, when again, 2 of the 6 division winners were from the bottom half of the league in payroll, as was the WS champion.

You and Bud can just select the years you like to prove your point, but don't complain when someone calls you on it.

You asked if it was a coincidence. The answer is yes. It's an unusual year when that happens.

Lip Man 1
02-06-2005, 11:30 PM
No. 2:

Honestly I can't understand what you are trying to prove. I'll make it simple. Go back to the start of free agency, the 1976 season. For every small payroll team that accomplishes something...anything.... you'll find at a minimum of five big payroll teams.

WHY is that so hard to understand? This isn't manipulating numbers like TV ratings, or like you tried to do stating along the lines of 'the Yankees don't win as much as they should based on the money they spend...' WHAT????? They have only made the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons!

Fact: Teams that spend more increase their chances of having a winning season.

Fact: Teams that spend more increase their chances of claiming playoff spots.

Fact: Teams that spend more increase their chances of getting to and winning the World Series.

History shows this is correct.....no number manipulation is involved.

Perfect example...the Minnesota Twins. Have made the playoffs three straight seasons, have lost three of the four playoff series they played. Who is the only team they beat...ANOTHER small payroll team in the Oakland A's. (Who by the way only spent five million less in team payroll last year then then the White Sox according to a story in Sports Illustrated.)

Two final points...you like many other Friends Of Uncle Jerry seem to want a 100% per cent money back guarantee that for the Sox to spend big money they have to win. Sorry life doesn't work that way. So many of the Friends of U.J.'s position is 'then we can't take any risks...heaven forbid!'

My only position is that the facts and history show that for every Florida Marlins of 2003, a club that didn't even get back to the playoffs the following season, there are ten Yankees, Braves, Red Sox, Cardinals, Indians and 97 Marlins.

Coincidence?

I'll thrilled to death the Sox payroll has finally cracked the 70 million dollar barrier. Hell in another year or so they may even hit the league average. (and no that shouldn't be in teal.)

2 of 6 division winners were small payroll you say...geez that only means 67% of the division winners were BIG payroll teams. Gotta LOVE those odds! And of course those Wild Card spots are usually being claimed by big payroll teams as well aren't they?

Lip

Ol' No. 2
02-07-2005, 12:03 AM
For every small payroll team that accomplishes something...anything.... you'll find at a minimum of five big payroll teams

My only position is that the facts and history show that for every Florida Marlins of 2003, a club that didn't even get back to the playoffs the following season, there are ten Yankees, Braves, Red Sox, Cardinals, Indians and 97 Marlins.5 to 1?? 10 to 1?? Do you have any actual statistics on that or are you just making up numbers?

I'll give you actual numbers. If you go back to 1985 (that's as far back as my salary list goes), a bit more than one-fourth of division winners had payrolls below the mean. Over the same period, the same percentage of league pennant winners had below-average payrolls. So the idea that low spending teams just get into the playoffs and take an early exit is demonstrably false.

Do big-spending teams have an advantage? Of course. But it isn't anywhere close to the advantage you seem to think. As long as good players are more in demand than mediocre ones, their price will be higher and wealthier teams will be able to afford more of them. Surprise! But having good players is not the same as having a good team.

When Honest Bud the used car salesman-turned-commisioner says stuff like "At the start of spring training, there no longer exists hope and faith for the fans of more than half of our 30 clubs." He's blowing smoke. It just ain't so.

Ol' No. 2
02-07-2005, 12:08 AM
Oh yeah. And...:tomatoaward

Mohoney
02-07-2005, 12:34 AM
As long as good players are more in demand than mediocre ones, their price will be higher and wealthier teams will be able to afford more of them.

I agree wholeheartedly with everything you said in your post, but this statement made me take pause.

I used to think that ARod getting $25 million a year was the most disgusting thing I had ever heard.

Omar Minaya has made me reconsider.

Giving Kris Benson, who is mediocrity personified, $7.5 million a year is absolutely criminal. These kinds of contracts are killing baseball way more than ARod's contract.

The price of the "mediocre" players that you describe has gone through the roof. That is definitely killing the "hopes and dreams" of small-market teams. Once again, the owners have gone crazy with rewarding mediocrity.

Kris Benson's contract makes me think that dire changes are needed in baseball. Either institute a salary cap to drive the price of mediocrity down, or (preferably) institute an IQ test for GMs. The first question can be this:

Would you give a pitcher with a career record under .500 and a career ERA in the mid 4s a 3 year, $22.5 million contract?

Any GM that answers "yes" to this question must be loaded into a cannon and shot directly into the center of the sun.

Either the money goes, or the stupidity controlling the money goes. Otherwise, if both are allowed to run rampant, the price of a baseball ticket will continue to skyrocket.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-07-2005, 01:50 AM
1) Winning
2) Winning
3) Winning
4) Winning
5) Winning
6) Winning