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View Full Version : Buehrle ... the next 300 club member?


Soxzilla
02-03-2005, 05:08 PM
After reading the piece on our starting rotation, that was posted earlier today. I find it interesting that Mark has won at least 14 games in the 4 years he has been a starting pitcher, and his career win total is at 69 games right now (23% of 300, btw). I personally think, being only 26 years of age, he isn't even close to peaking, and will have many 20 win seasons ahead of him. Now the question shouldn't be whether or not he will get 300 wins ... but will he do it all in a White Sox uniform?:?:

I only bring this up, because of all the talk Maddux got as being the final 300 game winner ever, after he accomplished the milestone feat last year.

I think it's very possible for Mark to acheive this destination if he stays healthy, especially since the guy eats up so many damn innings. If he can do this for the next many many years ... he could be hall of fame bound.

doublem23
02-03-2005, 05:19 PM
Could be, but let's get to 100 first. :smile:

Now that he's in New York, I think Randy Johnson could actually turn the trick.

santo=dorf
02-03-2005, 05:20 PM
You're nuts, Mark Buehrle isn't a power therefore he isn't as good as Kerry Wood. If Buehrle was on any other team, he would be a #3 or #4.

I think Buehrle has a reasonable chance to win 300, but he won't be the "next" to do it.

Soxzilla
02-03-2005, 05:26 PM
Could be, but let's get to 100 first. :smile:

Now that he's in New York, I think Randy Johnson could actually turn the trick.

Unless he gets injured :).


.....Not that I would want that ... in any way...


...ever...



*runs*

WinningUgly!
02-03-2005, 05:27 PM
Could be, but let's get to 100 first. :smile:

Now that he's in New York, I think Randy Johnson could actually turn the trick.

He'll need 18 wins/year over the next three seasons.

santo=dorf
02-03-2005, 05:29 PM
He'll need 18 wins/year over the next three seasons.
He can do that.

ChiWhiteSox1337
02-03-2005, 05:37 PM
Tom Glavine could have a shot at it...he's only 38 victories away and he's 38 years old. He's declined since leaving Atlanta, but he was pretty good last year. He posted a 3.60 ERA with a 11-14 record with over 200 IP. He definitely missed out on a lot of victories because of the Mets offense and bullpen. The offense will probably be a lot better now that they have Beltran, but the bullpen still looks crappy.

Buehrle is a guy who just wins, but lets look towards 100 first. :smile:

doublem23
02-03-2005, 05:47 PM
Nolan Ryan was winning 10+ games a year until he was 44 for some pretty mediocre Ranger teams in the late 80s and early 90s, so it wouldn't be totally uncharted territory for Johnson, who'll be pitching a team that could potentially win 20 more games a year than Ryan's.

I'd say Glavine might have a chance if the Mets' rebuilding process works, but if they are as average as they were last year, then he'll need to get out of New York. Too many wins on such a bad team.

WinningUgly!
02-03-2005, 05:51 PM
He can do that.

If he wants to pitch that long, & he's able to avoid seasons like the one he had in 2003, there's no doubt about it.

ja1022
02-03-2005, 05:55 PM
Maddux was 75-64 at the same point in his career, so the numbers are similar. And, like Maddux, it doesn't hurt that Buehrle has good mechanics, no real history of arm trouble and relies more on location than power. If Buehrle were to pitch 12 more years he'd have to average better than 19 wins a year to reach 300. That helps put 300 in perspective. 200 wins is a significant accomplishment. I think until you win 200, it seems way to early to be looking at 300. All that said, it would be great to see him do it.

WinningUgly!
02-03-2005, 06:06 PM
I personally think, being only 26 years of age, he isn't even close to peaking, and will have many 20 win seasons ahead of him.

Many 20 win seasons?:?: I love Mark Buehrle, but let's not get carried away. Remember, his next 20 win season will be his first. 20 win seasons don't exactly grow on trees. Nolan Ryan only managed to win 20 games twice in his entire 35 year career.

idseer
02-03-2005, 06:18 PM
Many 20 win seasons?:?: I love Mark Buehrle, but let's not get carried away. Remember, his next 20 win season will be his first. 20 win seasons don't exactly grow on trees. Nolan Ryan only managed to win 20 games twice in his entire 35 year career.

really!
this is just silly speculation.

so .... what do you think about bmac winning 300 and being a hof'er? reasonable ... isn't it?

popilius
02-03-2005, 06:29 PM
I think it's possible, considering his age, and the fact that he pitches a lot of innings.

What about C.C. Sabathia? He's only 23 and has 54 wins already.

:gulp:

ja1022
02-03-2005, 06:47 PM
What about C.C. Sabathia? He's only 23 and has 54 wins already.

:gulp:

He is not going to last.

dcb33
02-03-2005, 06:59 PM
I'd put my money on Buehrle winning 300 games before I would Mark Prior.

misty60481
02-03-2005, 07:00 PM
Compare Buerhle with Billy Pierce--Pierce had 70 wins at age 26---MB has 69--Pierce lost a lot more up to then because of terrible Sox teams in late 40s...Pierce had 2--20 win seasons and was pretty consistant thru his career,,I think 200 + wins would be a good estimate for MB---not a bad career---

SOXintheBURGH
02-03-2005, 07:02 PM
Mark Prior is the best pitcher since Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown and will amass 400 wins before his glorious career finishes, all in a Cubs uniform.

doublem23
02-03-2005, 07:48 PM
I'd put my money on Buehrle winning 300 games before I would Mark Prior.

Whoa, I don't know about that. The only thing standing in between Mark Prior and 300 wins is Dusty Baker. I fear what will happen if Hendry gets smart and fires that buffoon.

http://media.theinsiders.com/Media/MLB/56419_Baker090903.JPG
Hey, Mark, whadayasay you throw 180 pitches today? I got to take it easy 'cuz I know you white folk can't handle the sunshine.

ja1022
02-03-2005, 08:08 PM
I'd put my money on Buehrle winning 300 games before I would Mark Prior.

Whoa, I don't know about that. The only thing standing in between Mark Prior and 300 wins is Dusty Baker. I fear what will happen if Hendry gets smart and fires that buffoon.


I'd put my money with dcb33's on this one. This is not to say a healthy Prior isn't a better pitcher than Buehrle (that was difficult to type). He may be, but I think Buehrle career will last much longer. We've already seen Prior breakdown, and I have a hunch it won't be the last time.

Cowhead418
02-03-2005, 08:18 PM
Whoa, I don't know about that. The only thing standing in between Mark Prior and 300 wins is Dusty Baker. I fear what will happen if Hendry gets smart and fires that buffoon.

http://media.theinsiders.com/Media/MLB/56419_Baker090903.JPG
Hey, Mark, whadayasay you throw 180 pitches today? I got to take it easy 'cuz I know you white folk can't handle the sunshine.

Prior is only one year younger than Buehrle and has only won 30 games to Buehrle's 69. Plus Buehrle will have a much healthier career. But it doesn't matter. Prior will win 20 games a season for the rest of his career because he finally has that run support with the all-mighty trio of Blanco, Hairston and Burnitz. No more 16 K, 9 IP, one run losses against the Reds.

nccwsfan
02-03-2005, 08:36 PM
After reading the piece on our starting rotation, that was posted earlier today. I find it interesting that Mark has won at least 14 games in the 4 years he has been a starting pitcher, and his career win total is at 69 games right now (23% of 300, btw). I personally think, being only 26 years of age, he isn't even close to peaking, and will have many 20 win seasons ahead of him. Now the question shouldn't be whether or not he will get 300 wins ... but will he do it all in a White Sox uniform?:?:

I only bring this up, because of all the talk Maddux got as being the final 300 game winner ever, after he accomplished the milestone feat last year.

I think it's very possible for Mark to acheive this destination if he stays healthy, especially since the guy eats up so many damn innings. If he can do this for the next many many years ... he could be hall of fame bound.


I love Big Buehrle, but 300 wins might be a long shot IMO. You have to have so many things go right- he'd have to stay healthy, he'd have to perform at or above the level he's at for a loooooong period of time (average 15 wins for the next 15 seasons), he'd have to have a consistently good lineup to help him out from time to time, a little luck, etc etc.

That's a rare club, and although I'd love to see it happen I'll take a wait and see approach.

PAPChiSox729
02-03-2005, 09:02 PM
Mark Prior is the best pitcher since Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown and will amass 400 wins before his glorious career finishes, all in a Cubs uniform.

What are you talking about. Zambrano, Wood and Prior are all going to win 500+ games and finish 1-2-3 all-time in most career wins. And it will be the Kerry Wood Award after Kerry retires. Cy Young has nothing on "Kid K".
:rolleyes:

ma-gaga
02-03-2005, 09:19 PM
I think it's possible, considering his age, and the fact that he pitches a lot of innings.

What about C.C. Sabathia? He's only 23 and has 54 wins already.

:gulp:

Someone did a study on this, and CC was the MOST likely to get to 300 based on his age and production. Here it is: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-examining-300/

Buehrle was behind the pace by 13 wins halfway thru last season. Like they say, if he can get to 150 before he turns 30, he'll have a shot.

:)

tacosalbarojas
02-03-2005, 09:43 PM
Compare Buerhle with Billy Pierce--Pierce had 70 wins at age 26---MB has 69--Pierce lost a lot more up to then because of terrible Sox teams in late 40s...Pierce had 2--20 win seasons and was pretty consistant thru his career,,I think 200 + wins would be a good estimate for MB---not a bad career---
Real good comparison there. Exactly who I had in mind as the early Buehrle, so to speak. I love Buehrls too, but man...300...he'd have to add a few more miles to the fastball to go with all that moxie he owns. And staying healthy would help too. Now if he goes to the Cards, anything is possible.

MIgrenade
02-03-2005, 10:07 PM
I never even considered this a possibility until now. Longevity for pitchers these days is hard to come by, but with MB's delivery - which I see as pretty fluid - he might have a better chance. If he gets to point in his career were its a assured he will get it, like Maddux, I can almost guarantee he won't do it in a White Sox uniform simply because there won't be a use for him here in the same way Maddux was shipped off. Could be similar situations. They aren't power pitchers, they just find ways to win.

nccwsfan
02-04-2005, 06:10 AM
Someone did a study on this, and CC was the MOST likely to get to 300 based on his age and production. Here it is: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-examining-300/

Buehrle was behind the pace by 13 wins halfway thru last season. Like they say, if he can get to 150 before he turns 30, he'll have a shot.

:)


And for him to get to 150 by age 30 he'll need to average 20 wins over the next 4 seasons.

That in itself would be a stellar accomplishment....300 looks to be pretty tough.

gosox41
02-04-2005, 08:26 AM
After reading the piece on our starting rotation, that was posted earlier today. I find it interesting that Mark has won at least 14 games in the 4 years he has been a starting pitcher, and his career win total is at 69 games right now (23% of 300, btw). I personally think, being only 26 years of age, he isn't even close to peaking, and will have many 20 win seasons ahead of him. Now the question shouldn't be whether or not he will get 300 wins ... but will he do it all in a White Sox uniform?:?:

I only bring this up, because of all the talk Maddux got as being the final 300 game winner ever, after he accomplished the milestone feat last year.

I think it's very possible for Mark to acheive this destination if he stays healthy, especially since the guy eats up so many damn innings. If he can do this for the next many many years ... he could be hall of fame bound.

I think it's way too early to tell but he is off to a good start. A lot of things out of his control have to go right for him (ie health, being on a team that scores runs, etc.)



Bob

SoxFanTillDeath
02-04-2005, 09:24 AM
Buehrle has consistently won games his entire career, and that's what you see from a HOF pitcher. An MVP/Cy Young award is for players who do it once, a HOF bid is for those who do it consistently over their entire careers. I've always felt that Mark would go through his entire career and probably not win a Cy Young award once, and always have to field questions about whether or not he's an ace, then get voted into the HOF.

Whether or not he'll reach 300 wins, well, ask me again in 10 years. You don't need 300 wins to make it too the hall...

jake27
02-04-2005, 09:40 AM
It is possible, I don't even want to start thinking about it yet tho. Sure he is a good pitcher, stays healthy, and has a good team to get him some wins. But anything can happen in a career, especially a long one like Buehrle would have if he wants to get to 300.

mweflen
02-04-2005, 09:40 AM
Whoa, I don't know about that. The only thing standing in between Mark Prior and 300 wins is Dusty Baker. I fear what will happen if Hendry gets smart and fires that buffoon.

Mark Prior's roided beer-barrel calves will snap off of his achilles tendons way before he reaches 200, let alone 300.

Buehrle has a shot if he can stay healthy (a good bet, given his delivery and velocity) and with a reasonably good team for the next 15 years. But it's no lock. He'd have to average a little over 15 wins each of those years - No mean feat.

Soxzilla
02-04-2005, 11:14 AM
Many 20 win seasons?:?: I love Mark Buehrle, but let's not get carried away. Remember, his next 20 win season will be his first. 20 win seasons don't exactly grow on trees. Nolan Ryan only managed to win 20 games twice in his entire 35 year career.

I don't think it's implausible to believe that Buehrle could have three 20 win seasons, especially if he plays for the White Sox or Cardinals for the rest of his career. Like someone else said earlier, Ryan also played with some very AVERAGE Texas Ranger squads.

And personally, I think MB has a better shot (if you look at things currently) at reaching the 300 win plateau then other younger stars like Santana or Sabathia. (deep pink) Santana only because he will waste 3 more years of his career with a dreadful Twin offense that won't give him any run support. (deep pink) :wink:

WinningUgly!
02-04-2005, 11:21 AM
I don't think it's implausible to believe that Buehrle could have three 20 win seasons, especially if he plays for the White Sox or Cardinals for the rest of his career. Like someone else said earlier, Ryan also played with some very AVERAGE Texas Ranger squads.

And personally, I think MB has a better shot (if you look at things currently) at reaching the 300 win plateau then other younger stars like Santana or Sabathia. (deep pink) Santana only because he will waste 3 more years of his career with a dreadful Twin offense that won't give him any run support. (deep pink) :wink:

It's very possible for Buehrle to hit the 20 win mark, 2 or 3 times over the rest of his career. To act like it's an automatic given, is quite a stretch.

OurBitchinMinny
02-04-2005, 02:12 PM
I think its a long shot. He cant lose 10 games or more in a year a lot if he wants to have a shot. 300 wins is a ridiculous amount. I think Hudson has the best shot of todays crop.

chaz171
02-04-2005, 03:47 PM
When Seaver won 300 they were saying he would be one of the last 300 game winners.


Every time someone wins 300 they say he'll be one of the last.....

Clemens
Maddux
Ryan
Etc......


Healthy winning pitchers have a shot.
Mark Burhle has just as much of a chance as anyone...he has a good throwing motion and is not overthrowing......

batmanZoSo
02-04-2005, 06:52 PM
Are you kidding? Buehrle is a number 4 starter on a good team. He'll be lucky to hit .500 again. Of course, if he were on the A's, we'd be drooling over him and coming up with trade scenarios to get him twice a week. I don't care that his stats stack up with the best pitchers in the game. Mark Buehrle is not a front-of-the-rotation pitcher and we'll never win as long as we don't have a true ace and as long as Jerry owns the team. GAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PAPChiSox729
02-04-2005, 11:22 PM
I think that Mark will finish 70 to 80 wins short.

WhiteSoxFan84
02-05-2005, 03:10 AM
Glavine is next, he won't retire until he wins 300. He will probably do it in 3 years (16 wins this year, 14 next year, 12 in 2007; only needs 38 more).

spanishwhite
02-05-2005, 12:40 PM
Someone did a study on this, and CC was the MOST likely to get to 300 based on his age and production. Here it is: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-examining-300/

Buehrle was behind the pace by 13 wins halfway thru last season. Like they say, if he can get to 150 before he turns 30, he'll have a shot.

:)

CC is only 1 yr younger than Buehrle (24-25) and yet he is behind him by 15 wins.

Not to mention that CC has averaged 12 wins a year over the past 3 years to Buehrle's 16 wins a year.

I think Buehrle has a chance if he can stay healthy over the next 15 years.

Big if.

idiotAllDAWay
02-05-2005, 09:06 PM
Buerle better get the heck goin' if he's to win 300.

batmanZoSo
02-05-2005, 09:14 PM
let's see. in all of baseball history 1900's on there have been 15 300 game winners. how many thousands of men have been pitchers in that time? many much better than mark will likely ever be who didn't reach 300. is there ANYone here who would bet ON mark winning 300? ANYONE? without odds? without GREAT odds?

imo this is (what very many of you would call) a cub-like endeavor. let's worship our guys and assume they will be the greatest players who ever walked the face of the earth. capable or ruthian feats! let's take a player who has 69 wins in 164 starts and seriously think he's gonna win 300.

can it happen? of course. for that matter, john garland could win 300 also.
any pitcher under the age of 25 could possibly win 300. right? (don't think you can assume this is incorrect either. at age 26 sandy koufax was 36 - 40. had it not been for injury he certainly could have reached 300. warren spahn had 44 wins at age 26 and he won 363 games. garland has more wins than warren at the same age.) no one here can say garland couldn't turn around and become great. i admit the odds are way against that too but you see my point.

i'll be happy if mark can win 16 games next season. he's a good pitcher ... nothing more.

I'd say he's better than just good in today's game. Maybe not a Hall of Famer, but he's among the best starters in the game right now...probably top 20.

idseer
02-05-2005, 09:42 PM
I'd say he's better than just good in today's game. Maybe not a Hall of Famer, but he's among the best starters in the game right now...probably top 20.

i agree with you about him maybe being in the top 20 but my standards may be a little different than yours. great ... top 4 or 5 pitchers, excellent ... the next 4 or 5, very good .... the next 4 or 5, then good and so on. and this is over a period of time too. not just one or 2 seasons. rj is a great pitcher. clemens, shilling, martinez. maddux WAS. clearly, mark doesn't hold a candle to these guys. not now anyway.

he's pitched some great games but he's also gotten slapped around a good deal. i'd say he may (i hope) get better and might become an excellent pitcher ... but he's not there imo.