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View Full Version : Baseball Think Factory take on the Iguchi signing.


Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 10:49 AM
Also look at the bottom of the thread, one of the posters there translated Iguchi's Japanese numbers to US Cell numbers.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsblog_discussion/25862/

jabrch
01-25-2005, 10:53 AM
Also look at the bottom of the thread, one of the posters there translated Iguchi's Japanese numbers to US Cell numbers.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsblog_discussion/25862/

"translated" - using what "convsersion rate"? The Ichiro conversion factor - or the So Taguchi "conversion rate"? I like the look of those numbers (.322/.364/.485) but I question the legitimacy of them.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 10:54 AM
From one of the posts:

Dumping Lee for Podsednik can only be considered a positive in terms of money saved, because it certainly made the Sox worse in the field.

:?:

This guy is obviously a stat head and thinks CLee has gold glove potential. I will admit that Podsednik isn't either...I don't see it as a defensive downgrade.

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 10:58 AM
"translated" - using what "convsersion rate"? The Ichiro conversion factor - or the So Taguchi "conversion rate"? I like the look of those numbers (.322/.364/.485) but I question the legitimacy of them.

Probally everyone who has moved between the leagues with US Cell park affect added in.

Ol' No. 2
01-25-2005, 11:00 AM
From one of the posts:



:?:

This guy is obviously a stat head and thinks CLee has gold glove potential. I will admit that Podsednik isn't either...I don't see it as a defensive downgrade.But Carlos Lee had zero errors last year. So statistically, he's the best, right? Sometimes I think some of these statheads never actually go to see a real game.

mweflen
01-25-2005, 11:06 AM
I'd be more than satisfied if he hit .280+ with 30+ doubles, a few triples, and 10 dingers, with 20+ steals.

Light years ahead of Willie, anyway.

jabrch
01-25-2005, 11:09 AM
Probally everyone who has moved between the leagues with US Cell park affect added in.

That's a very small sample size with extreme variance between the individuals in the population. I hope he/she was right - cuz that would be awesome if Iguchi is a .300+/.350+/.450+ hitter this year. But I don't know how you can possibly mathematically convert him to a MLB player using anything realistic and with any sort of dependability.

This isn't like converting from AA to AAA to MLB where you can take archetypes of players and model based on a large enough sample size. This one really is shakey...

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 11:47 AM
But Carlos Lee had zero errors last year. So statistically, he's the best, right? Sometimes I think some of these statheads never actually go to see a real game.

Well this isn't based on errors. If you look at it from a numbers point of view, the Sox had one of the best OF defenses last year. It isn't about errors, but expect outs vs actually outs and avg on balls put in play. Both methods rated the 2004 Sox highly. If you look at it by watching a game, you would have seen Lee's drastic improvement over the years in the field. Plus not sure how many Brewers games you have watched, but Pods is an average fielder, not a Willie Mays out there.

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 11:48 AM
That's a very small sample size with extreme variance between the individuals in the population. I hope he/she was right - cuz that would be awesome if Iguchi is a .300+/.350+/.450+ hitter this year. But I don't know how you can possibly mathematically convert him to a MLB player using anything realistic and with any sort of dependability.

This isn't like converting from AA to AAA to MLB where you can take archetypes of players and model based on a large enough sample size. This one really is shakey...

It is but its the best method available, as more players jump from Japan to US and US to Japan the models will become better.

Iwritecode
01-25-2005, 11:59 AM
Pods is an average fielder, not a Willie Mays out there.

Neither is Carlos.

Yes, he did improve his fielding while with the Sox but do you remember how bad he looked a few years ago? His improvement brought him up from being below-average to being an average fielder.

Not a big suprise since he was originally an infielder IIRC...

longshot7
01-25-2005, 12:09 PM
Neither is Carlos.

Yes, he did improve his fielding while with the Sox but do you remember how bad he looked a few years ago? His improvement brought him up from being below-average to being an average fielder.

Not a big suprise since he was originally an infielder IIRC...

Third base.

mdep524
01-25-2005, 12:17 PM
Dumping Lee for Podsednik can only be considered a positive in terms of money saved, because it certainly made the Sox worse in the field.

Not to nitpick, but I don't think this post was referring to the field literally as in defense. Just my interpretation, but I think he mean it more generally, like Carlos Lee > Scott Podsednik overall.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 12:20 PM
Well this isn't based on errors. If you look at it from a numbers point of view, the Sox had one of the best OF defenses last year. It isn't about errors, but expect outs vs actually outs and avg on balls put in play. Both methods rated the 2004 Sox highly. If you look at it by watching a game, you would have seen Lee's drastic improvement over the years in the field. Plus not sure how many Brewers games you have watched, but Pods is an average fielder, not a Willie Mays out there.

Yes, CLee has improved, but that isn't saying much. Alos, i stated in my original post that Podsednik was not of gold glove caliber either. However, I have watched a lot of Brewer games and I think Podsednik has more range than CLee. Now that may give him few extra errors because of the effort, but I don't think that Podesednik is a downgrade in LF. Worse case scenario is that they are equal.

Now, if the Sox had a top ranked defensive OF last year and if Pods defense is equal to CLee's the change would then be Dye, who IMO, is an upgrade in the field over all the RFer's that played out there last year. So, after that poorly constructed run-on sentence all that I can conclude is that the White Sox OF in 2005 > 2004.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 12:21 PM
Not to nitpick, but I don't think this post was referring to the field literally as in defense. Just my interpretation, but I think he mean it more generally, like Carlos Lee > Scott Podsednik overall.

He stated worse in the field. The only way I read that is defensively.

mdep524
01-25-2005, 12:41 PM
He stated worse in the field. The only way I read that is defensively.
Right, but he was contrasting it to "money saved." So I interpreted it as him comparing Pods to Lee talent vs. money, not specifically defense.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 12:50 PM
Right, but he was contrasting it to "money saved." So I interpreted it as him comparing Pods to Lee talent vs. money, not specifically defense.

He said that the only positive was money saved. Even if he is talking about overall talent, that isn't the only positive Podsednik brings to the team. I'm not saying that Podsednik and Lee are equal in terms of talent. However, they both have different talents and IMO the things that Podsednik brings to the table was much more needed than what Lee brought to the table, so I don't see the money saved as the ONLY positive thing about the trade. I like the idea that the Sox now have a leadoff hitter and the top base stealer in the league. For that we comprimised power, possibly BA, but I don't think defense was compromised...especially if Podesednik plays LF where he will have less ground to cover.

balke
01-25-2005, 12:57 PM
The only way Pods will be better than CLee is if he has great range. I'm hoping we can shift towards right with how much range there will be in LF and CF. I've never seen Pods play, but he's gotta be quick right?

Clee will most likely have a much stronger/more accurate arm. Also, Carlos played off the wall well, and made steady slides for balls. He was much improved last year. You probably could say he's a better LF. But I'll take the range and not complain if Pods has considerably more.

P.S. I'm believing Iguchi will stay steady in our league, and keep his #'s. IF he doesn't get the HR's, who cares? They'll probably drop as 2baggers. I'm loving this team more and more.

jabrch
01-25-2005, 12:58 PM
He said that the only positive was money saved. Even if he is talking about overall talent, that isn't the only positive Podsednik brings to the team. I'm not saying that Podsednik and Lee are equal in terms of talent. However, they both have different talents and IMO the things that Podsednik brings to the table was much more needed than what Lee brought to the table, so I don't see the money saved as the ONLY positive thing about the trade. I like the idea that the Sox now have a leadoff hitter and the top base stealer in the league. For that we comprimised power, possibly BA, but I don't think defense was compromised...especially if Podesednik plays LF where he will have less ground to cover.

I totally agree with you hose. We have a potential leadoff hitter, a base stealer, and a guy who is at least no worse than Carlos defensively. So we gave up power and some avg - but we got speed and a guy who could potentially be a top tier leadoff hitter.

Add in the fact that we got Vizcaino, and saved a ton of money that got us a starter, a catcher, and a 2B... We really have gotten better because of the Lee trade in so many ways. That doesn't mean I won't miss Carlos - but I don't see how anyone can think that was a bad move in hindsight.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 01:03 PM
I totally agree with you hose. We have a potential leadoff hitter, a base stealer, and a guy who is at least no worse than Carlos defensively. So we gave up power and some avg - but we got speed and a guy who could potentially be a top tier leadoff hitter.

Add in the fact that we got Vizcaino, and saved a ton of money that got us a starter, a catcher, and a 2B... We really have gotten better because of the Lee trade in so many ways. That doesn't mean I won't miss Carlos - but I don't see how anyone can think that was a bad move in hindsight.

Thanks, and I agree with your sentiment whole-heartedly. I look forward to cheering on CLee with the Brewers and have told my Brewer fan friends that they will love the guy. Conversely, they have told me the same thing about Pods. The Lee trade was the key to this entire offseason. Before that trade we were contemplating trades that would only create holes in order to fill holes. If we are going into the season arguing whether Joe Crede will hit 8 or 9 (which some are)...man, oh man...we have gotten SO much better.

mdep524
01-25-2005, 01:10 PM
He said that the only positive was money saved. Even if he is talking about overall talent, that isn't the only positive Podsednik brings to the team. I'm not saying that Podsednik and Lee are equal in terms of talent. However, they both have different talents and IMO the things that Podsednik brings to the table was much more needed than what Lee brought to the table, so I don't see the money saved as the ONLY positive thing about the trade. I like the idea that the Sox now have a leadoff hitter and the top base stealer in the league. For that we comprimised power, possibly BA, but I don't think defense was compromised...especially if Podesednik plays LF where he will have less ground to cover.

I am not trying to defend this guy or say it was a bad trade, I'm just saying the guy's point may not have been about defense specifically.

My opinion is close to yours. Defensively we lose nothing, offensively we lose some power but hopefully gain some intelligence, speed and baserunning ability. I still think KW could have gotten considerably more for Lee than Pods, Vizcaino and a minor leaguer, but it was still a useful trade in that it netted us more with the saved money.

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 01:15 PM
I totally agree with you hose. We have a potential leadoff hitter, a base stealer, and a guy who is at least no worse than Carlos defensively. So we gave up power and some avg - but we got speed and a guy who could potentially be a top tier leadoff hitter.

Add in the fact that we got Vizcaino, and saved a ton of money that got us a starter, a catcher, and a 2B... We really have gotten better because of the Lee trade in so many ways. That doesn't mean I won't miss Carlos - but I don't see how anyone can think that was a bad move in hindsight.

If Pods gives up avg which is OBP then he isn't a top tier leadoff hitter. Vizcaino is as likely to have a great season as a bad one.

fquaye149
01-25-2005, 01:16 PM
I am not trying to defend this guy or say it was a bad trade, I'm just saying the guy's point may not have been about defense specifically.


We understand your position, but it's a stretch.

CPditka
01-25-2005, 01:16 PM
Did you guys see this from the MLB article that was linked in this article


Maybe Williams was genuinely unsure in regards to Iguchi joining the White Sox. Maybe Williams was operating in his now famous "stealth mode," flying under the radar as the team continued to seriously pursue the talented second baseman.

Everyone knows about his stealthy-ness.

Link (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20050124&content_id=933738&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp)

jabrch
01-25-2005, 01:22 PM
If Pods gives up avg which is OBP then he isn't a top tier leadoff hitter. Vizcaino is as likely to have a great season as a bad one.

That's exactly why I said "could be"

If Podsednik can perform in the middle of his 2004 and his 2003 numbers, then he is a top tier leadoff hitter with his speed. You take a .345/.350 obp and a .280 avg and add it to his speed/baserunning skill and he is a rock solid leadoff solution.

I know that there are some who say Matt Stairs and his high OBP is a good leadoff hitter, but if you give me a guy who gets on a bit less, but can do much more when he actually gets on, I'll take that.

It will be nice to have the type of players to actually manufacture runs, rather than sit around and wait for a 3 run HR.

And as far as Vizcaino goes - he is much more likely to be an improvement over whomever won't be in the bullpen because he is here than he is to be worse than that person. Think Mike Jackson or Felix Diaz if you will. What are the chances that Vizcaino is not an improvement over what we had? I never said he'd be great - but I promise you he won't be Mike Jackson.

OurBitchinMinny
01-25-2005, 01:30 PM
He said that the only positive was money saved. Even if he is talking about overall talent, that isn't the only positive Podsednik brings to the team. I'm not saying that Podsednik and Lee are equal in terms of talent. However, they both have different talents and IMO the things that Podsednik brings to the table was much more needed than what Lee brought to the table, so I don't see the money saved as the ONLY positive thing about the trade. I like the idea that the Sox now have a leadoff hitter and the top base stealer in the league. For that we comprimised power, possibly BA, but I don't think defense was compromised...especially if Podesednik plays LF where he will have less ground to cover.

The Posednik for lee deal was not even close to equal value, even when you figure in vizcaino. The move was done to cut money, which to JR's credit, KW was able to go out and fill some holes. But just analyzing the deal, milwaukee got a better deal. But it enabled us to fill some holes. Lee was fine in the OF last year too. He made less mistakes than rowand and maggs+the RF platoon.

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 01:38 PM
And as far as Vizcaino goes - he is much more likely to be an improvement over whomever won't be in the bullpen because he is here than he is to be worse than that person. Think Mike Jackson or Felix Diaz if you will. What are the chances that Vizcaino is not an improvement over what we had? I never said he'd be great - but I promise you he won't be Mike Jackson.

Last year Jackson ERA+ was 98, career 125. Last year Vizcaino ERA+ was 110 with a career number of 93. The year before his ERA+ was 68, 2002 was 134. I would be carefull before saying he won't be Jackson because if the pattern holds true, he is due for a bad season.

Palehose13
01-25-2005, 01:49 PM
The Posednik for lee deal was not even close to equal value, even when you figure in vizcaino. The move was done to cut money, which to JR's credit, KW was able to go out and fill some holes. But just analyzing the deal, milwaukee got a better deal. But it enabled us to fill some holes. Lee was fine in the OF last year too. He made less mistakes than rowand and maggs+the RF platoon.

I never said that Podsednik+Vizcaino was equal to Lee. I just don't thin that the ONLY positive aspect to the trade was the money saved. If you think that it was, then you are saying that Pods and Vizcaino do nothing to strengthen the Sox. I disagree with that sentiment.

My initial point is being lost, which was that even though CLee had no errors last year, he was never going to be a gold glove caliber OFer. CLee has "Ryno" syndrome in the field...that is why his fielding % has increased. IMHO, Podsednik is not a decrease defensively.

SoxFan76
01-25-2005, 02:21 PM
I think we analyze TOO much. Think of it this way--this team is upgraded in so many ways that it is pointless to compare players. The pitching staff is upgraded, the bullpen is upgraded, the defense is upgraded, the OBP is upgraded, the speed is upgraded. What went down? Home runs. What has the home run gotten the Sox? Nothing. What else went down...um a few players with humongo salaries? Yeah that too. I say this team is great considering what KW is given to work with.

It just isn't fair to compare Pods with CLee. For one, they are different players. Two, so many other aspects of the team were upgraded, that comparing the two is pointless.

Flight #24
01-25-2005, 04:04 PM
Last year Jackson ERA+ was 98, career 125. Last year Vizcaino ERA+ was 110 with a career number of 93. The year before his ERA+ was 68, 2002 was 134. I would be carefull before saying he won't be Jackson because if the pattern holds true, he is due for a bad season.

I will freely admit that I'm not sure what all's included in ERA+, but a telling stat from 2004 is that "Action" Jackson allowed 16 of 27 inherited runners to score, and allowed an .864 OPS with runenrs on (.958 with RISP). Vizcaino, allowed 11 of 35 IR to score, and posted a .662OPS with men on, .767 with RISP (all actually higher than his 3-year averages).

That's a significant improvement in my book.

Ol' No. 2
01-25-2005, 05:08 PM
I will freely admit that I'm not sure what all's included in ERA+, but a telling stat from 2004 is that "Action" Jackson allowed 16 of 27 inherited runners to score, and allowed an .864 OPS with runenrs on (.958 with RISP). Vizcaino, allowed 11 of 35 IR to score, and posted a .662OPS with men on, .767 with RISP (all actually higher than his 3-year averages).

That's a significant improvement in my book.I hate rating relievers by ERA. It doesn't take into account the inherited/bequeathed runners. A lot of Neal Cotts' ERA should belong to Jackson. Baseball Prospectus has a nifty system in which they include inherited/bequeathed runners to come up with a "Fair" runs allowed per 9 IP. The King of Pop came in with a nifty 6.61, only marginally better than Billy Koch's 6.82 and far worse than any other Sox reliever.

champagne030
01-25-2005, 06:21 PM
I never said that Podsednik+Vizcaino was equal to Lee. I just don't thin that the ONLY positive aspect to the trade was the money saved. If you think that it was, then you are saying that Pods and Vizcaino do nothing to strengthen the Sox. I disagree with that sentiment.

My initial point is being lost, which was that even though CLee had no errors last year, he was never going to be a gold glove caliber OFer. CLee has "Ryno" syndrome in the field...that is why his fielding % has increased. IMHO, Podsednik is not a decrease defensively.

i'll agree that it's probably a wash with defense. pods will cover more ground, but he needs a cutoff man to make the throw to 2nd....and for those thinking....yes, lee's arm is much stronger and just as accurate (that's not in teal for a reason).

Dadawg_77
01-25-2005, 07:21 PM
I hate rating relievers by ERA. It doesn't take into account the inherited/bequeathed runners. A lot of Neal Cotts' ERA should belong to Jackson. Baseball Prospectus has a nifty system in which they include inherited/bequeathed runners to come up with a "Fair" runs allowed per 9 IP. The King of Pop came in with a nifty 6.61, only marginally better than Billy Koch's 6.82 and far worse than any other Sox reliever.

Yes, ARA is a great way to evaluate relievers and ERA isn't the best. I just use ERA+ which measures the difference between what the pitcher pitched and what a league average pitcher would pitch given those situations, 100 means the LgERA equals the pitchers ERA. I wanted to show that Vizcaino is all over the place and wanted to use Jackson as a baseline. In 2003 Vizcaino FRA was 5.85.

johnny_mostil
01-25-2005, 09:57 PM
"translated" - using what "convsersion rate"? The Ichiro conversion factor - or the So Taguchi "conversion rate"? I like the look of those numbers (.322/.364/.485) but I question the legitimacy of them.

Minor league "MLEs" are, for most players at least, pretty much as legitimate as last years' numbers for any major leaguer. Millions of hours of volunteer stathead labor has gone into figuring out what the difference is between various levels, various parks. Now, Japan and the American League, that's got less of a track record, but if you subtract 30pts from OBP and BAVG and 100pts from SLG that seems to be the average adjustment for most Japanese batters.

Iguchi's "MLEs" are almost as useful for predicting his 2005 as Aaron Rowand or Joe Crede's 2004 numbers are for them.

People who have seen Iguchi play say he's one hell of a ballplayer.

johnny_mostil
01-25-2005, 10:00 PM
Yes, ARA is a great way to evaluate relievers and ERA isn't the best. I just use ERA+ which measures the difference between what the pitcher pitched and what a league average pitcher would pitch given those situations, 100 means the LgERA equals the pitchers ERA. I wanted to show that Vizcaino is all over the place and wanted to use Jackson as a baseline. In 2003 Vizcaino FRA was 5.85.

Relievers' statistics can lie because they don't face an even mix of batters, except for closers. A good manager can hide weaknesses, a poor manager exposes them. [Oswaldo was, in 2004, mostly a decent to good manager in that regard. Manuel was among the worst I have ever seen, letting people hit who had no business hitting in a situation and ignoring both scouting and performance history.]

CWSGuy406
01-25-2005, 11:19 PM
I think we analyze TOO much. Think of it this way--this team is upgraded in so many ways that it is pointless to compare players. The pitching staff is upgraded, the bullpen is upgraded, the defense is upgraded, the OBP is upgraded, the speed is upgraded. What went down? Home runs. What has the home run gotten the Sox? Nothing. What else went down...um a few players with humongo salaries? Yeah that too. I say this team is great considering what KW is given to work with.

It just isn't fair to compare Pods with CLee. For one, they are different players. Two, so many other aspects of the team were upgraded, that comparing the two is pointless.

Ugh, excuse my ranting, but I hate it when people keep saying "Where did the homeruns get us the past few seasons?"...

Gosh...

Homeruns aren't the reason we lost. Actually, hitting homeruns isn't the reason we lost period.

It was that we haven't had a consistent leadoff man since -- since, I don't even remember when...

Think back to April 2004, if you will. Our 1-2 punch of Harris/Uribe unexpectedly is dominating, both are hitting the hell out of the ball, and both are getting on base at around a .400 clip, IIRC. I have to believe -- without having the stats in front of me -- that there is a direct correlation with how the Sox leadoff man is doing, and how the Sox offense/team is doing as a whole.

Don't say homers are the reason that have cost us the season. The real reasons?

1.) No consistent leadoff hitter.
2.) No fifth starter.
3.) For the most part, inconsistent, bad bullpens.
4.) Injuries (I wouldn't expect the BoSox to go far if they lost Ortiz/Ramirez either).

If Podsednik can get on base at a .340+ (the bare minimum), as well as do his thing on the bases, I think we'll be OK this year. However -- he's only had one good season, in about eight/nine major and minor league seasons. Why should I believe that he'll be anywhere near .350 with his OBP -- which, SB's or no SB's, is the most important stat for a leadoff man...

SoxxoS
01-26-2005, 12:14 AM
If Podsednik can get on base at a .340+ (the bare minimum), as well as do his thing on the bases, I think we'll be OK this year. However -- he's only had one good season, in about eight/nine major and minor league seasons. Why should I believe that he'll be anywhere near .350 with his OBP -- which, SB's or no SB's, is the most important stat for a leadoff man...

One good season? I bet to differ. Not as an excuse for all bad performances, but Keep in mind that a few of those seasons were injury plagued.

http://forecaster.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/chicagosports-sox/baseball/player.cgi?2749 (http://forecaster.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/chicagosports-sox/baseball/player.cgi?2749)

TheBull19
01-26-2005, 02:33 AM
"translated" - using what "convsersion rate"? The Ichiro conversion factor - or the So Taguchi "conversion rate"? I like the look of those numbers (.322/.364/.485) but I question the legitimacy of them.

The Taguchi conversion rate would actually increase Iguchi's numbers considering Taguchi's career .278 .337 .387 in Japan and his .290 .338 .440 in the US.

Also, Ichiro hit 25 and 21 homers in different seasons in Japan, averaged about 16-17/year. Based on that I expect a successful Iguchi to be in the 12-16 range in the US, though it is difficult to predict since only a few have played here. It is remarkable how similar Kaz Matsui's and Iguchi's numbers from his last 2 seasons in Japan are, so I guess we'll see.

TheBull19
01-26-2005, 02:42 AM
I wanted to show that Vizcaino is all over the place and wanted to use Jackson as a baseline. In 2003 Vizcaino FRA was 5.85.

In 2003 Vizcaino pitched through a shoulder injury that he didn't tell anyone about because he didn't want to go on the DL, according to what I read on a Brewer's site after the sox acquired him

jabrch
01-26-2005, 07:44 AM
Now, Japan and the American League, that's got less of a track record, but if you subtract 30pts from OBP and BAVG and 100pts from SLG that seems to be the average adjustment for most Japanese batters.


The sample size is so small that any statisical gyrations you use are completely worthless. And MLEs completely fail to find a way to predict either growth, or a failure to do so, in players moving from the minors to MLB because it is impossible to do so using a calculator.

Statistics are great...abuse of them sucks.

Dadawg_77
01-26-2005, 09:30 AM
The sample size is so small that any statisical gyrations you use are completely worthless. And MLEs completely fail to find a way to predict either growth, or a failure to do so, in players moving from the minors to MLB because it is impossible to do so using a calculator.

Statistics are great...abuse of them sucks.

Well not understanding what they are saying is a abuse. Translations and MLE aren't meant as a predictive tool but as tool to give Major League context to numbers a player put up. Saying Iguchi hit a Major League equivalent of .300 (I don't know the number off the top of my head) isn't saying he will hit .300 this year, just you would look at him like a hitter who hit .300 in the Majors last year with some more risk.