View Full Version : Probabilistic Model of Range ranks Sox D last year as the fourth best in the Majors.

01-25-2005, 10:31 AM

I calculate the probability of a ball being turned into an out based on six parameters:

Direction of hit (a vector).
The type of hit (Fly, ground, line drive, bunt).
How hard the ball was hit (slow, medium, hard).
The park.
The handedness of the pitcher.
The handedness of the batter.
The system compares the amount of outs made versus the amount of out projected based on above parameters.

01-25-2005, 12:24 PM
The metrics have really rated the White Sox Defense highly last year and I think even in years past. This doesnt surprise me that much.

01-25-2005, 12:52 PM
Seems like this measures the defense behind the pitching. Not total defense with pitching included. If in fact we have improved defense and pitching in 05, and can maintain about the same offense compared to last year's lineup (minus Frank & Maggs most of the year) but be more consistent - the Sox should be improved. That's what we're all hoping.

Also, I suppose you can have situational defense, just like situational hitting. That's another area that I hope we see an improvement.

01-25-2005, 01:10 PM
They must've overlooked the games Gload and Borchard played in the outfield.

01-25-2005, 04:11 PM

[/list]The system compares the amount of outs made versus the amount of out projected based on above parameters.

This is an underrated defensive team overall. This year we've improved dramatically. Pierzysnki is probably the weakest link on the field and that's not a problem if he bats .300. Everyone else is at least above average. Pods and Iguchi have blazing speed, Rowand has a great arm and solid range now, Uribe's a whiz, Crede makes all the plays (when he doesn't let his hitting affect it), and Dye is a gold glove winner.

01-25-2005, 04:37 PM
YES! The reason we were bad last year wasn't the defense! Our defense is fine. It has been fine.