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View Full Version : What's it gonna be this year?


Cubbiesuck13
01-15-2005, 01:13 AM
Our top problem will be increased strike outs. There is very little protection in the line up so I figure we will get less decent pitches per at bat than last year. We struck out 1030 times last year compared to an average of 1013 for our opponents. 1030 k's with a half a year of Mags and Thomas. It seems we have a couple of free swingers (not that there is anything wrong with that) and I figure them to go after plenty of bad pitches.

If the guys can come through when it counts tho, then the k's won't hurt us so bad. I do think that we will have a fun team to watch; much more entertaining than the all or nothing squad we had for a few years. I am looking forward to this season but my new years resolution to stop swearing will have to go out the window pretty soon after April 1 when I see us chase third strikes in the dirt. Any thoughts on this?

johnny_mostil
01-15-2005, 10:20 AM
Our top problem will be increased strike outs. There is very little protection in the line up so I figure we will get less decent pitches per at bat than last year.

Where exactly is this idea that the lineup has significantly lowered run potential come from?

Here are the changes in the lineup, as of this morning. I'll use OPS for simplicity:

Pierzynski replaces Olivo/Burke/Alomar from last year. Pierzynski almost never strikes out and is a much better for-average hitter. Offensively, this is an upgrade of about 100 points in OPS.
Dye replaces, not Ordonez, but the actual right fielder tag team from last year. They hit about .252/.314/.404. Dye's park-adjusted OPS is 100 points higher than that.
More Harris and Uribe and TBD replace Jose Valentin. Jose had a poor season, but even so, this is probably an offensive wash.
Podsednik replaces Lee. This is "only" a park-adjusted 185 point hit in OPS even if Lee repeats his career-best season and Podsednik hits only .250 or so.
I don't see where the team's real run expectation should be significantly lower than 2004. In 2004 they scored 865 runs.