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SouthSideHitman
12-26-2004, 11:46 AM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-041225rogers,1,1285670.column?coll=cs-whitesox-utility
Hernandez gives the White Sox a second big-game pitcher, which should come in handy in their series against Minnesota.

When the Sox and Twins have met late in the season, Ron Gardenhire has been able to count on strong efforts from Johan Santana and Brad Radke. He knows that under pressure, Sox hitters will chase Radke's changeups until they're silly. Heck, he hasn't walked a single hitter in his last nine starts against the Sox, a 63-inning span that dates to Aug. 19, 2002.

The Sox's managers—first Jerry Manuel, now Ozzie Guillen—have felt good about Mark Buehrle, who is 13-7 all time against Minnesota, but haven't gotten consistent work from anyone else. Hernandez should change that.

He is a show pony conditioned for the big game, not the long haul. It is his 10-3 record and 2.65 ERA over 102 postseason innings that speaks to his talent, not the 61 wins it has taken seven regular seasons to compile...
A good point, considering the last two years we've just been crumbling to the Twins after the break, which has basically directly lead to our demise each time. Let's hope he's right.

batmanZoSo
12-26-2004, 12:41 PM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-041225rogers,1,1285670.column?coll=cs-whitesox-utility

A good point, considering the last two years we've just been crumbling to the Twins after the break, which has basically directly lead to our demise each time. Let's hope he's right.
You can look at it another way, that just not having 5 worthy starters has been our demise the last few years. 5-15 9.08 should definitely be improved upon by Hernandez. If you change that to 12-8, we're a 94 win team.

johnny_mostil
12-26-2004, 12:49 PM
You can look at it another way, that just not having 5 worthy starters has been our demise the last few years. 5-15 9.08 should definitely be improved upon by Hernandez. If you change that to 12-8, we're a 94 win team.
Now, do you expect Contreras to out-pitch Loaiza? Uh, yeah, probably, given that he did last season. Do you expect Garcia to out-pitch Schoeneweis for the other half of the season? Absolutely. Hermanson to out-pitch Mike Jackson? Probably. Takatsu to out-pitch Billy Koch's half season? Yeah. Marte to pitch better? Probably.

Do you see a trend here?

JUribe1989
12-26-2004, 01:13 PM
Now, do you expect Contreras to out-pitch Loaiza? Uh, yeah, probably, given that he did last season. Do you expect Garcia to out-pitch Schoeneweis for the other half of the season? Absolutely. Hermanson to out-pitch Mike Jackson? Probably. Takatsu to out-pitch Billy Koch's half season? Yeah. Marte to pitch better? Probably.

Do you see a trend here?
Wow I had always supported all this and I thought it would be a better rotation. Now I am extremely excited with all these comparisons you gave. Can't wait to roast some Twinkies.

veeter
12-26-2004, 01:23 PM
This is why it was so important to exchange some power for speed. Against the Twins it'll be nice to do some bunting and other things to create havoc on the base paths. Can the Sox execute this? Don't know but they now have the personnel to make it possible. Also the Sox are finally deep with veteran arms on the pitching staff instead of just arms. Let's execute in 2005 !!!

johnny_mostil
12-26-2004, 01:32 PM
Wow I had always supported all this and I thought it would be a better rotation. Now I am extremely excited with all these comparisons you gave. Can't wait to roast some Twinkies.
Thanks for not tealing that... Seriously, I've been in the "snide doomsayer" crowd for a long time because of the seeming nickel-and-dime improvement of the team. I just realized a couple days ago as I did a top-to-bottom review of the Sox roster that nickels and dimes add up to dollars. On the pegboard behind my desk I have, posted, the 2004 Baseball Prospectus PECOTA forecast for the White Sox they published in spring training. They weren't all that far off as it turned out, although their individual forecasts weren't so hot, and there were some outrageously wrong projections on their website: Takatsu at 0-2, 10.44ERA, in 32 innings might be the worst projection in baseball writing history. But they projected essentially a .500 team, which was right -- but that's not why I keep it posted. I keep it posted because of this:
Buehrle, Loaiza, Garland, Schoeneweis, and Diaz/Wright as starters, and Marte, Koch, Takatsu, Adkins, Politte, and Wunsch as the core of the pen.
Now I look at the roster and I see
Burhle, Garcia, Garland, Contreras, and El Duque as the starters, and Takatsu, Marte, Hermanson, Politte, and Vizcaino as the core of the pen.
I see half the pitching staff replaced with, in each case, better pitchers, and role changes that get the worst pitchers off the team altogether. I see a definite improvement in the personalities involved. I see Cotts, Adkins, Diaz, and Munoz all pushed to the margins as insurance policies to develop their craft in the minors, forced to step up.

Now, I believe in momentum, attitude, and that individual performances in baseball affect the players around them. Starting pitchers on teams with deep, professional bullpens will take fewer stupid chances. Starting pitchers on teams with other good starting pitchers tend to face frustrated opponents more often. It snowballs.

johnny_mostil
12-26-2004, 01:34 PM
This is why it was so important to exchange some power for speed. Against the Twins it'll be nice to do some bunting and other things to create havoc on the base paths.
Pointless. But making the Twins face the fact that they're likely to lose ten points off their BAs when they play the White Sox should be priceless.

veeter
12-26-2004, 03:27 PM
What I meant trading speed for power is that instead of having the whole lineup trying to jack homeruns maybe they'll be thinking contact first. Rogers made a great point that the Sox would fall for Radke's change up because of their want to hit the long ball. Sox hitters thinking contact and getting on base; thusly creating havoc on the paths is hardly pointless.

Whitesox029
12-26-2004, 09:41 PM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-041225rogers,1,1285670.column?coll=cs-whitesox-utility

A good point, considering the last two years we've just been crumbling to the Twins after the break, which has basically directly lead to our demise each time. Let's hope he's right. Remember when we swept the Twins at the dome early in the season though? ...good times man.

Brian26
12-26-2004, 10:10 PM
Pointless. But making the Twins face the fact that they're likely to lose ten points off their BAs when they play the White Sox should be priceless.
Agreed. I just don't think the speed from one player, Pods, is going to replace the raw offensive production from CLee. Nonetheless, if this team wins in 2005, it will be due to the pitching.

champagne030
12-27-2004, 11:52 AM
Now, do you expect Contreras to out-pitch Loaiza? Uh, yeah, probably, given that he did last season. Do you expect Garcia to out-pitch Schoeneweis for the other half of the season? Absolutely. Hermanson to out-pitch Mike Jackson? Probably. Takatsu to out-pitch Billy Koch's half season? Yeah. Marte to pitch better? Probably.

Do you see a trend here?Uh, not really. contreras to out-pitch loaiza? not when este pitched for us last year! he didn't compare to 2003, but 9 wins and a 4.86 era is better than jose. you should probably compare garcia and loaiza. actually the numbers, while pitching for the sox are not much different (wins, era). compare schoeneweis and contreras and the end result is not much different. vastly different styles, but at the end of the day pretty much same results. people forget that shoney was our BEST starter through the end of may. i think it was somewhat a fluke, but he was damn good until he got hurt last year. our bullpen should be much improved and even if it's five starts, ED is better than the puke we threw out there in the 5 spot last year, but i think people are getting a little carried away with the "potential" of the 2 cubans. one doesn't stay healthy and the other is probably in the same boat as judy. make him a 3 and he's terrible, a 4 and he's so-so and a great 5. that means we have 2 two's, 2 fives and 1 three (when's he's healthy).

Mickster
12-27-2004, 12:07 PM
that means we have 2 two's, 2 fives and 1 three (when's he's healthy).
Which happens to be a hell of a lot better than 90% of the MLB teams out there.

champagne030
12-27-2004, 12:30 PM
Which happens to be a hell of a lot better than 90% of the MLB teams out there.90%? can i have some of that kool-aid?

:gulp:

johnny_mostil
12-27-2004, 12:36 PM
Uh, not really. contreras to out-pitch loaiza? not when este pitched for us last year! he didn't compare to 2003, but 9 wins and a 4.86 era is better than jose. you should probably compare garcia and loaiza. actually the numbers, while pitching for the sox are not much different (wins, era). compare schoeneweis and contreras and the end result is not much different. vastly different styles, but at the end of the day pretty much same results. people forget that shoney was our BEST starter through the end of may. i think it was somewhat a fluke, but he was damn good until he got hurt last year. our bullpen should be much improved and even if it's five starts, ED is better than the puke we threw out there in the 5 spot last year, but i think people are getting a little carried away with the "potential" of the 2 cubans. one doesn't stay healthy and the other is probably in the same boat as judy. make him a 3 and he's terrible, a 4 and he's so-so and a great 5. that means we have 2 two's, 2 fives and 1 three (when's he's healthy).
I believe Contreras will be considerably better than last year, removed from the insane media circus surrounding Los Yanquis. There's nothing wrong with the guy's stuff, and his ERA was essentially blasted by two outings. One problem with ERA is it's an average. Some pitchers consistently leak runs, others have chronic explosions. If you have two pitchers who are otherwise statistically identical but one is dominant 4 of 5 times, and the other just leaks runs slowly but consistently, which is actually better? It depends. But because the size of a meltdown is controlled partly by how long the manager leaves the pitcher in, you can get statistical illusions.

Garcia and Buerhle are in the top 15% of starting pitchers. Calling them #2s is ridiculous -- unless you only believe there are 10 number 1s in baseball. Most of us personally don't see them as being that good because we have irrational, inflated beliefs about other teams' pitchers. The grass is always greener...

For example, the number of Pavano yearners on this board just astonishes me. Pavano's career is no more impressive than Garland's, but because he got a bunch of press and pitched in a pitcher-friendly part in a non-DH league we forget that his ERA translates to 5.20 in USCF. This is a typical starting pitcher in the AL in The Cell: 10-10 5.00 ERA

I don't really see Contreras as putting up pretty statistics in 2005, but I think he'll be effective anyway.

FightingBillini
12-27-2004, 12:51 PM
that means we have 2 two's, 2 fives and 1 three (when's he's healthy).Actually, we have 2 #1 starters, 2 #2-3 starters and a #5 who can pitch like a #2 if he gets his head out of his arse

But I guess to you anyone on the White Sox sucks. Buehrle is a #2 despite consitently being on of the best in baseball. Garcia is a #2 despite consitently being one of the best in baseball before his severe ear injury in 03 caused him to lose his equilibrium. He had a rough second half, while still posting good numbers, but he sucks because he didn't go 12-1 with the Sox. Contreras is a #5 because you think that the Yankees and Red Sox' scouting reports on him were completely wrong, he actually has no talent whatsoever, and was not worth the huge bidding war. Oh, and that whole "tipping his pitches" thing that Don Cooper found, its a lie. It is just propaganda to the Sox fans so they will buy tickets. I know until I read your post I was considering buying season tickets. Now I know that Coop was covering for Contreras' ineptitude, and he will be nothing more than the most fought after #5 pitcher in history. Yeah, he will probably suck.

Buehrle and Garcia will each win at least 18 Contreras will win at least 16. Book it.
While El Duque will be good, I dont know what numbers he will put up here, but he is a good pitcher, and for arguement's sake, lets say he stays healthy and wins 13. Garland will win a minimum of 14 games. At minimum, that is a 79 win rotation. Not too shabby. But maybe you would rather trade Buehrle for the ACE "Carrie" Wood. Hey, maybe he can finally win 14 games!

eshunn2001
12-27-2004, 01:06 PM
Actually, we have 2 #1 starters, 2 #2-3 starters and a #5 who can pitch like a #2 if he gets his head out of his arse

But I guess to you anyone on the White Sox sucks. Buehrle is a #2 despite consitently being on of the best in baseball. Garcia is a #2 despite consitently being one of the best in baseball before his severe ear injury in 03 caused him to lose his equilibrium. He had a rough second half, while still posting good numbers, but he sucks because he didn't go 12-1 with the Sox. Contreras is a #5 because you think that the Yankees and Red Sox' scouting reports on him were completely wrong, he actually has no talent whatsoever, and was not worth the huge bidding war. Oh, and that whole "tipping his pitches" thing that Don Cooper found, its a lie. It is just propaganda to the Sox fans so they will buy tickets. I know until I read your post I was considering buying season tickets. Now I know that Coop was covering for Contreras' ineptitude, and he will be nothing more than the most fought after #5 pitcher in history. Yeah, he will probably suck.

Buehrle and Garcia will each win at least 18 Contreras will win at least 16. Book it.
While El Duque will be good, I dont know what numbers he will put up here, but he is a good pitcher, and for arguement's sake, lets say he stays healthy and wins 13. Garland will win a minimum of 14 games. At minimum, that is a 79 win rotation. Not too shabby. But maybe you would rather trade Buehrle for the ACE "Carrie" Wood. Hey, maybe he can finally win 14 games!
Uh, 16 for Contreras Idunno if I am booking it. 18 wins may be a stretch for Garcia and Buehrle, but it can be done. But I will put a wager on Contreras winning 16

champagne030
12-27-2004, 01:10 PM
I believe Contreras will be considerably better than last year, removed from the insane media circus surrounding Los Yanquis. There's nothing wrong with the guy's stuff, and his ERA was essentially blasted by two outings. One problem with ERA is it's an average. Some pitchers consistently leak runs, others have chronic explosions. If you have two pitchers who are otherwise statistically identical but one is dominant 4 of 5 times, and the other just leaks runs slowly but consistently, which is actually better? It depends. But because the size of a meltdown is controlled partly by how long the manager leaves the pitcher in, you can get statistical illusions.

Garcia and Buerhle are in the top 15% of starting pitchers. Calling them #2s is ridiculous -- unless you only believe there are 10 number 1s in baseball. Most of us personally don't see them as being that good because we have irrational, inflated beliefs about other teams' pitchers. The grass is always greener...

For example, the number of Pavano yearners on this board just astonishes me. Pavano's career is no more impressive than Garland's, but because he got a bunch of press and pitched in a pitcher-friendly part in a non-DH league we forget that his ERA translates to 5.20 in USCF. This is a typical starting pitcher in the AL in The Cell: 10-10 5.00 ERA

I don't really see Contreras as putting up pretty statistics in 2005, but I think he'll be effective anyway.well, no, i don't think of a number 1 pitcher as being in the top 32 of ALL pitchers. yes, mark and freddie would be a number one on many teams, just not one that, IMO, can carry a team. we might be able to win the division with our staff and that's not something i take lightly, but even with a 100% ED i wouldn't like our starting staff's matchups in the playoffs (btw - that's not even considering our offensive matchups or bullpen, but i guess that's something to dream about when it happens).

i do understand your point about pitching stats being distorted, as i remember black jack giving up 6 runs when we won 12-6, but holding the other team to 1 in a 2-1 victory during his prime with us. maybe contreras will flourish this year in chicago, but i just see ED not holding up in the 3 spot and JC and JG not being nearly as productive as the 3 and 4. a lot of if's, IMO, for this rotation.

Mickster
12-27-2004, 01:18 PM
90%? can i have some of that kool-aid?

:gulp:
Sure you can. But I don't think you'll like it. Seems you only drink the new sour SOX NEGATIVITY flavor, though. :redneck

champagne030
12-27-2004, 01:34 PM
Actually, we have 2 #1 starters, 2 #2-3 starters and a #5 who can pitch like a #2 if he gets his head out of his arse

But I guess to you anyone on the White Sox sucks. Buehrle is a #2 despite consitently being on of the best in baseball. Garcia is a #2 despite consitently being one of the best in baseball before his severe ear injury in 03 caused him to lose his equilibrium. He had a rough second half, while still posting good numbers, but he sucks because he didn't go 12-1 with the Sox. Contreras is a #5 because you think that the Yankees and Red Sox' scouting reports on him were completely wrong, he actually has no talent whatsoever, and was not worth the huge bidding war. Oh, and that whole "tipping his pitches" thing that Don Cooper found, its a lie. It is just propaganda to the Sox fans so they will buy tickets. I know until I read your post I was considering buying season tickets. Now I know that Coop was covering for Contreras' ineptitude, and he will be nothing more than the most fought after #5 pitcher in history. Yeah, he will probably suck.

Buehrle and Garcia will each win at least 18 Contreras will win at least 16. Book it.
While El Duque will be good, I dont know what numbers he will put up here, but he is a good pitcher, and for arguement's sake, lets say he stays healthy and wins 13. Garland will win a minimum of 14 games. At minimum, that is a 79 win rotation. Not too shabby. But maybe you would rather trade Buehrle for the ACE "Carrie" Wood. Hey, maybe he can finally win 14 games!easy tiger. i didn't say mark or freddie sucked. and no, i wouldn't trade him for fairy. i do say that contreras has sucked during his two MLB seasons. oh, and i guess since crede's swing flaw has been corrected, he'll win the triple crown this year! boston and the mets got into a bidding war with pedro so his shoulder must be great. boston and the yankees got into a bidding war for pavano, that must mean he's cy young material. i do see that you predict career years or equal career years for freddie, judy and contreras. at least 79 wins from our starters? that's a 100 win season....drink up!

:gulp: :gulp: :gulp: :gulp: :gulp:

fquaye149
12-27-2004, 01:52 PM
well, no, i don't think of a number 1 pitcher as being in the top 32 of ALL pitchers. yes, mark and freddie would be a number one on many teams, just not one that, IMO, can carry a team. we might be able to win the division with our staff and that's not something i take lightly, but even with a 100% ED i wouldn't like our starting staff's matchups in the playoffs (btw - that's not even considering our offensive matchups or bullpen, but i guess that's something to dream about when it happens).

there are 5 pitchers in the AL better than Mark and Freddy ERA wise. only 5 pitchers had more wins than Buehrle. only 4 pitchers had more strikeouts than freddy.

I don't think that's just being in the top32 of all pitchers.

But maybe I'm just "drinking the kool-aid"

Mickster
12-27-2004, 02:30 PM
there are 5 pitchers in the AL better than Mark and Freddy ERA wise. only 5 pitchers had more wins than Buehrle. only 4 pitchers had more strikeouts than freddy.

I don't think that's just being in the top32 of all pitchers.

But maybe I'm just "drinking the kool-aid"
Maybe you are. Too bad Freddy and Buehrle are only #2's.