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34 Inch Stick
12-14-2004, 01:36 PM
With the conversation about the PTBNL being a minor leaguer, I wanted to see if we had anyone here who has a grasp of the Brewers system. Where is their area of strenght and who do you think they would make available?

Randar68
12-14-2004, 02:15 PM
With the conversation about the PTBNL being a minor leaguer, I wanted to see if we had anyone here who has a grasp of the Brewers system. Where is their area of strenght and who do you think they would make available?
Strength? Position players. Middle Infield. Who'd they make available? I have no idea. If it's a guy like Rickie Weeks, then this deal is golden. If it's a 24-year old struggling pitcher, then it's a non-factor in the deal...

Have to wait and find out.

MRKARNO
12-14-2004, 04:33 PM
I cant imagine the Brewers giving up a player of consequence seeing that they took on 7 million in salary

Wealz
12-14-2004, 05:41 PM
Radio reports yesterday pegged the PTBNL as Mitch Stetter a 23 year-old lefty in High-A.

ondafarm
12-14-2004, 05:44 PM
Having had the pleasure of viewing the Milwaukee farm system in recent years, I can't say that it is loaded anywhere. I can only think of a few players that would have a chance of making the majors and no one who would impact the majors immediately. A few of the players:

Glenn Woolard SP 6-1 2.06 at AA.
John Novinsky RP 7-1 2.93, 17 saves at AA.

Ben Hendrickson SP 11-3 2.02 at AAA
Roberto Giron RP 5-0 1.86 3 sv at AAA.

Hitting is pretty slim pickings.

A. Cavatica
12-14-2004, 09:19 PM
Radio reports yesterday pegged the PTBNL as Mitch Stetter a 23 year-old lefty in High-A.
Sounds about right. We can start calling him Mitch "Irish" Stetter -- because a 23-year old in high A is a dog.

ondafarm
12-14-2004, 09:33 PM
Sounds about right. We can start calling him Mitch "Irish" Stetter -- because a 23-year old in high A is a dog.
Considering he was only drafted in 2003 that means he went college first and then was drafted. One year spiltting time between A and the high A actually doesn't seem too canine.

A. Cavatica
12-14-2004, 09:48 PM
OK, I admit it -- I was desperate to make the bad pun.

California Sox
12-14-2004, 11:21 PM
Of course he was 1-4 8.15 in 38 IN 54 H 14BB 29SO in Hi A so the dog pun still works. He was much better in Lo A -- 4-0 1.70 53 31 12 57, mostly as a reliever, so maybe there's some hope but he's not exactly a "prospect."

ondafarm
12-15-2004, 12:06 AM
Of course he was 1-4 8.15 in 38 IN 54 H 14BB 29SO in Hi A so the dog pun still works. He was much better in Lo A -- 4-0 1.70 53 31 12 57, mostly as a reliever, so maybe there's some hope but he's not exactly a "prospect." I saw him pitch against Winston-Salem and he had pretty good stuff. Adjusting to a mid-season call-up is pretty hard. He kept his control, walks to strikeouts was pretty constant (and good) but he obviously had a few bad outings, but I think he is a genuine prospect.

California Sox
12-15-2004, 01:39 AM
He pitched against W-S? He played at High Desert. That's what I call a long bus trip. :smile:

ondafarm
12-18-2004, 10:28 AM
He pitched against W-S? He played at High Desert. That's what I call a long bus trip. :smile:
My mistake.

TheBull19
12-19-2004, 04:48 PM
I cant imagine the Brewers giving up a player of consequence seeing that they took on 7 million in salary
Why not? The general consensus seems to be KW got fleeced, why wouldn't he have required quality options for the PTBNL since the trade as it stands otherwise is lopsided in favor of Milwaukee?

ondafarm
12-19-2004, 06:10 PM
Why not? The general consensus seems to be KW got fleeced, why wouldn't he have required quality options for the PTBNL since the trade as it stands otherwise is lopsided in favor of Milwaukee?
General consensus where?

I think the advantage goes to the White Sox.

Rex Hudler
12-19-2004, 10:32 PM
I wouldn't mind getting Lou Palmisano, a catcher the Sox originally drafted but did not sign. He is a good hitting catcher that played in Beloit, of the Midwest League last year.

Other position players in the Milwaukee system (that will not be traded) are Prince Fielder, Brad Nelson, Rickie Weeks and Tony Gwynn Jr. Of those, Gwynn Jr. is less highly regarded, but is still young. I like Nelson's bat, but he is a slow OF. If he can play 1B he'd probably be okay, but Fielder is there. They also have JJ Hardy, who will likely be their starting SS at least by the end of this coming season. He is a nice player. Dave Krynzel is one hell of a defensive CF. The jury is still out on whether he will hit enough to start in teh big leagues. Lastly, Corey Hart a 3B has potential.

Hart and Krynzel were in AAA last year. Hardy was in AAA as well, but only played in 26 games before hurting his knee and missing the rest of the season. Fielder, Nelson, Weeks and Gwynn Jr. were all at AA. Gwynn Jr. will likely go back to AA. Fielder and Weeks wouldn't be hurt spending some time at AA again, but will likely go to AAA, wherever the hell that is now.

ondafarm
12-19-2004, 10:34 PM
. . . but will likely go to AAA, wherever the hell that is now.
Nashville.

Rex Hudler
12-19-2004, 10:37 PM
Nashville.
Hard to keep track with the affiliation musical chairs..

OurBitchinMinny
12-20-2004, 09:46 PM
General consensus where?

I think the advantage goes to the White Sox.
How? Without considering money, going by talent alone, the white sox did get fleeced.

ondafarm
12-21-2004, 01:15 AM
How? Without considering money, going by talent alone, the white sox did get fleeced.
You're kidding, right?

The Sox gave up a one dimensional player who cost as many runs in the field as he scored and drove in mostly meaningless runs (when the Sox led 8-3 he'd make it 10-3.) http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=150324

The Sox got a specialist at getting tough lefties out http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=150430
and a classic leadoff guy, the league leader in stolen bases and a solid defensive center fielder. http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=325392
Plus a mid level prospect.

Pods OBP is consistent when considering the avergae of the following batter(s). Should the Sox bat Rowand and Thomas in the 2 and 3 spots then Pods' OBP should be around 340-350. That with 70 stolen bases would score a lot of runs, even on days when the Sox can only get a few singles.
This is a great trade for the White Sox.

You'll note that Pods' fantasy ranking is 1834 compared to Carlos Lee's 1769.

CLee will help the Brewers, but Pods will help the White Sox a lot more.

A. Cavatica
12-21-2004, 10:22 PM
You'll note that Pods' fantasy ranking is 1834 compared to Carlos Lee's 1769.
Oh, sorry, didn't realize he had a higher fantasy ranking.

Seriously, stick to baseball, or at least stick to statistics designed to measure performance instead of statistics designed to be easily digested.

Podsednik's had one good season, when he broke in as an old rookie. Lee has been consistent at driving in runs over several years, and also had one good season for on-base percentage. Let's not get too excited about Podsednik's stolen bases. They may count for a lot in your fantasy world but they are a lousy measure of offensive value.

ondafarm
12-21-2004, 11:48 PM
Oh, sorry, didn't realize he had a higher fantasy ranking.

Seriously, stick to baseball, or at least stick to statistics designed to measure performance instead of statistics designed to be easily digested.

Podsednik's had one good season, when he broke in as an old rookie. Lee has been consistent at driving in runs over several years, and also had one good season for on-base percentage. Let's not get too excited about Podsednik's stolen bases. They may count for a lot in your fantasy world but they are a lousy measure of offensive value.
Lee drags down the offensive output of players around him he retards OBP by 20 to 25 points. Pods increases the value by more than that much. Pods scores runs when runs are scarce, Lee drives them in in slugfests. You are the one in the fantasy world if you think Lee is more valuable than Pods.

A. Cavatica
12-22-2004, 09:08 AM
Lee drags down the offensive output of players around him he retards OBP by 20 to 25 points. Pods increases the value by more than that much. Pods scores runs when runs are scarce, Lee drives them in in slugfests.
Let's see your reference to the stats on that. Sample size?

ondafarm
12-22-2004, 09:56 PM
Let's see your reference to the stats on that. Sample size?
Well, mark this day down!!! A card carrying Flat Earth Society member asking for numbers !!!

A. Cavatica
12-22-2004, 10:56 PM
Well, mark this day down!!! A card carrying Flat Earth Society member asking for numbers !!!
How do you figure I'm a flat Earther? :?: I bought the Bill James Baseball Abstract from, like, 1982 until he stopped publishing it. I'm a big believer in meaningful stats (like OBP) and a big skeptic when it comes to counting stats like RBI and SB, or "fantasy" stats that are largely derived from those.

Stop dodging the issue, and present your evidence that Lee:

- "cost as many runs in the field as he scored"
- "drove in mostly meaningless runs"
- "retards OBP [of his teammates] by 20 to 25 points"

and that Podsednik has the opposite effect.

beck72
12-24-2004, 06:25 AM
Stop dodging the issue, and present your evidence that Lee:

- "cost as many runs in the field as he scored"
- "drove in mostly meaningless runs"
- "retards OBP [of his teammates] by 20 to 25 points"

and that Podsednik has the opposite effect.
The fact that Lee was traded, despite all his numbers, shows the Sox didn't think he was that valuable to this team, that they believe Pods can help the team in ways Lee couldn't. Most guys with Lee's numbers would be someone to build a team around. Yet he was still let go.

The only evidence we fans will probably be able to point to to judge this trade is in wins and losses once the season starts.

A. Cavatica
12-24-2004, 11:52 PM
The fact that Lee was traded, despite all his numbers, shows the Sox didn't think he was that valuable to this team, that they believe Pods can help the team in ways Lee couldn't. Most guys with Lee's numbers would be someone to build a team around. Yet he was still let go.
That's debatable. Lee was certainly valuable to the team, and I'm sure the Sox realize he was valuable to the team. He was just overpriced relative to his contributions, and overpriced relative to other players that were available.

Hey, the Red Sox let Pedro go, too.

I like Carlos Lee, and I've been pushing the idea of trading him (or Konerko) for several lower-priced players for two seasons now. I have my doubts about whether Podsednik was the right guy to go after, but I agree that our #1 need was leadoff hitter and our #2 need was another starter. By trading Lee we addressed those.

If Podsednik hits his career averages, this was a great trade.

jordan23ventura
12-25-2004, 04:47 AM
That's debatable. Lee was certainly valuable to the team, and I'm sure the Sox realize he was valuable to the team. He was just overpriced relative to his contributions, and overpriced relative to other players that were available.

Hey, the Red Sox let Pedro go, too.

I like Carlos Lee, and I've been pushing the idea of trading him (or Konerko) for several lower-priced players for two seasons now. I have my doubts about whether Podsednik was the right guy to go after, but I agree that our #1 need was leadoff hitter and our #2 need was another starter. By trading Lee we addressed those.

If Podsednik hits his career averages, this was a great trade.
Lee was overpriced? Compare him to what Beltre got. Hell, he's only worth two Christian Guzmans according to this last offseason.

Everyone is overpaid to some degree considering that all they have to do is play baseball all year - ooh, what a terrible job. But, when you start looking at what players get as FA's, a guy that gives you .300 30 100 every year is definately worth what he makes.

The Red Sox let Pedro go because no one is dumb enough to give out those kinds of contracts except the Mets.

ondafarm
01-02-2005, 10:59 PM
- "retards OBP [of his teammates] by 20 to 25 points"

Carlos Lee in 2004 batted in several positions, mostly 2nd 3rd and fifth. If you add up the total at bats by the batters before and after him in the order, they had 1269 at bats and walks. They got on base 417 of these opportunities. That is a 0.329 clip. Less than the 0.333 rate of the White Sox team in general.

However, if you weight the opportunities by the respective player at bats (as in Frank Thomas, who frequently batted immediately before CLee, had a 0.434 OBP, so his at bats have a higher expected OBP than the White Sox team average OBP of 0.333) then one discovers that the batters immediately before and after CLee should have gotten on base at a 0.354 clip. That means Carlos Lee retards OBP of his teammates by 25 points.

A. Cavatica
01-03-2005, 12:05 AM
Carlos Lee in 2004 batted in several positions, mostly 2nd 3rd and fifth. If you add up the total at bats by the batters before and after him in the order, they had 1269 at bats and walks. They got on base 417 of these opportunities. That is a 0.329 clip. Less than the 0.333 rate of the White Sox team in general.

However, if you weight the opportunities by the respective player at bats (as in Frank Thomas, who frequently batted immediately before CLee, had a 0.434 OBP, so his at bats have a higher expected OBP than the White Sox team average OBP of 0.333) then one discovers that the batters immediately before and after CLee should have gotten on base at a 0.354 clip. That means Carlos Lee retards OBP of his teammates by 25 points.
Interesting. I'm willing to be convinced. Do you have a breakdown of how many times each player batted immediately ahead of and behind Carlos, and how they performed in those situations, or are you approximating based on who usually batted in a given position?

ondafarm
01-03-2005, 09:37 PM
Interesting. I'm willing to be convinced. Do you have a breakdown of how many times each player batted immediately ahead of and behind Carlos, and how they performed in those situations, or are you approximating based on who usually batted in a given position?
Frank Thomas had 258 ABs preceding CLee (out of 304 in the season.) He got on base 112 of those times. That is a .434 OBP which matches his season number. Other players had the other 1011 ABs either before or after CLee, PK having the most on the season. They got on base 305 of those times.

A real stat head does not approximate.

A. Cavatica
01-03-2005, 10:18 PM
I assume you mean Frank had 258 plate appearances adjacent to Carlos, 'cause that gives the .434 OBP. The .434 is consistent with his career OBP (.429) and is higher than his previous two full seasons (.361, .390). It's too small a sample for me to claim that Frank was HELPED by batting adjacent to Carlos, but there's certainly no evidence that Frank was HURT by it.

So what's the breakdown for the other players?

ondafarm
01-03-2005, 10:32 PM
I assume you mean Frank had 258 plate appearances adjacent to Carlos, 'cause that gives the .434 OBP. The .434 is consistent with his career OBP (.429) and is higher than his previous two full seasons (.361, .390). It's too small a sample for me to claim that Frank was HELPED by batting adjacent to Carlos, but there's certainly no evidence that Frank was HURT by it.

So what's the breakdown for the other players?
More importantly, the .434 matches his season OBP. He is the only player not hurt by batting around Carlos.

ondafarm
01-03-2005, 11:03 PM
Mags Ordonez was 17 for 54 batting around CLee. That's a .315 OBP compared to his season avg .351 OBP.

A. Cavatica
01-04-2005, 12:02 AM
Mags Ordonez was 17 for 54 batting around CLee. That's a .315 OBP compared to his season avg .351 OBP.
Anything can happen in 54 at-bats.

ondafarm
01-04-2005, 02:44 AM
Fine, here's the list for 2004.
player w/CLee season
Thomas 112-258 .434 (.434)
Ordonez 17- 54 .315 (.351)
Konerko 135-404 .334 (.359)
Uribe 31- 98 .316 (.327)
Perez 11- 44 .250 (.285)
Gload 5- 19 .263 (.375)
Harris 2- 11 .182 (.343)
Rowand 25- 72 .347 (.361)
Everett 11- 37 .297 (.320)
others (Dransfeldt, Borchard, Valdez, etc)
5 - 69 .072

Valentin 56-175 .326 (.287)
R.Alomar 7-28 .250 (.203)

In short, Carlos Lee costs the White Sox roughly 25 points of OBP, roughly 140 baserunners or 45 runs in a season. Does he drive in that many more than Aaron Rowand would if he played left field?

A. Cavatica
01-04-2005, 05:45 PM
So the five players who spent the most time batting adjacent to Lee in 2004 were:
Konerko (404 PA) - OPS 25 points lower
Thomas (258) - OPS same
Valentin (175) - OPS 39 points higher
Uribe (98) - OPS 11 points lower
Rowand (72) - OPS 14 points lower
Thomas and Valentin did not suffer from batting adjacent to Lee, and Uribe & Rowand only suffered a little. But the sample sizes for all four were small.

Your argument seems to be founded on Konerko's numbers. With 250+ each way (adjacent to Lee and separated from Lee) his sample size looks a little healthier. But you can slice Konerko's numbers in half using other criteria, and you'll see that a 25 point differential is unremarkable:

Pre-All-Star .384, Post-All-Star .333 (2003: .267 and .346)
vs. LHP .372, vs. RHP .354 (2003: .373 and .272)
Home .414, Road .301 (2003: .324 and .286)
Day .393, Night .343 (2003: .291 and .311)

Remember that correlation does not imply causation. Konerko was 51 points of OBP hotter in the first half, but with everyone healthy, there was often someone between Lee & Konerko in the order. Did Konerko following Lee cause Konerko's second-half slump, or does Konerko's second-half slump make it look like Lee hurt Konerko? Or were the two events unrelated? We don't know. If Lee really hurts the performance of batters adjacent to him in the lineup, you ought to see the same effect with other batters, and in other seasons.

Now, what about the claims that Lee drives in "mostly meaningless runs" and "cost as many runs in the field as he scores"?
:tongue:

ondafarm
01-04-2005, 06:11 PM
Your argument seems to be founded on Konerko's numbers. With 250+ each way (adjacent to Lee and separated from Lee) his sample size looks a little healthier. But you can slice Konerko's numbers in half using other criteria, and you'll see that a 25 point differential is unremarkable:

Pre-All-Star .384, Post-All-Star .333 (2003: .267 and .346)
vs. LHP .372, vs. RHP .354 (2003: .373 and .272)
Home .414, Road .301 (2003: .324 and .286)
Day .393, Night .343 (2003: .291 and .311)

Remember that correlation does not imply causation. Konerko was 51 points of OBP hotter in the first half, but with everyone healthy, there was often someone between Lee & Konerko in the order. Did Konerko following Lee cause Konerko's second-half slump, or does Konerko's second-half slump make it look like Lee hurt Konerko? Or were the two events unrelated? We don't know. If Lee really hurts the performance of batters adjacent to him in the lineup, you ought to see the same effect with other batters, and in other seasons.
You obviously do not have a degree in stats. The two batters out of 11 who improve around Lee are both part-time lefties. It is not surprising that they would perform better when batting around a righty. Thomas had all of his ABs before Lee, which diminishes the effect. The same dampening effect is seen with other batters as demonstrated by 8 of 11 batters showing a decrease. Konerkos ABs were split between first and second half and were all batting after Lee. Carlos Lee is a menace on the basepaths and kills rallies. He costs the White Sox runs.

SoxFan48
01-06-2005, 09:26 AM
This is a delicious thread topic for reply:


What is the evidence that Carlos Lee RBI's were "meaningless"?
What is the evidence that his defense cost as many runs as his RBI's? Lee had 99 RBI's in '04. Can you cite 99 runs cost by his defense?
Statements like RBI's are meaningless and defense costing as many runs as RBI's are opinions, totally unsupported by any meaningful analysis. That is what Bill James was and is all about--stop stating opinions, do the research and discover the truth.

Joel Perez
01-06-2005, 01:59 PM
:D:
Who can we get from the Brew Crew???

Calling all minor league gurus out there!!!

What's done is done, let's move on!

CHISOXFAN13
01-10-2005, 05:01 PM
:D:
Who can we get from the Brew Crew???

Calling all minor league gurus out there!!!

What's done is done, let's move on!

ESPN Radio just said it was TRavis...something. I wasn't fully paying attention. We'll have to do some searching now.

Edit: New thread in the clubhouse now. Travis Hinton is the PTBNL.

ondafarm
01-10-2005, 09:50 PM
This is a delicious thread topic for reply:




What is the evidence that Carlos Lee RBI's were "meaningless"?
What is the evidence that his defense cost as many runs as his RBI's? Lee had 99 RBI's in '04. Can you cite 99 runs cost by his defense?
Statements like RBI's are meaningless and defense costing as many runs as RBI's are opinions, totally unsupported by any meaningful analysis. That is what Bill James was and is all about--stop stating opinions, do the research and discover the truth.
CLee is the antithesis of a clutch hitter. In 2004, 75 of his 99 RBIs came in games in which the Sox scored five or more runs; 63 of the RBIs came when the margin of the game was 3 or more runs. Taken together this means almost two thirds of his runs driven in were virtually meaningless.



Next time you want to have a plate full of crow, come around again.

A. Cavatica
01-10-2005, 11:03 PM
CLee is the antithesis of a clutch hitter. In 2005, 75 of his 99 RBIs came in games in which the Sox scored five or more runs
Wow. I believe in 2005 he played for the Brewers, so naturally his RBI were meaningless to the Sox.
:tongue: