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View Full Version : How many bases will Podsednik steal next year?


MRKARNO
12-13-2004, 10:32 PM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?

ilsox7
12-13-2004, 10:35 PM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?
How can you possibly post a positive thread? Didn't you know that only bitching was allowed in mourning the loss of the perennial All-Star CLee?

I think 70-80 is about right. It will obviously depend on which Scott P. we get. I just enjoy the idea of seeing our 1st inning go like this:

Walk. Steal. Bunt. Sac Fly. 1-0 Sox.

KW better have another starter coming in though. Or else this is BS. I just think it's fair to give it a few days before judging the deal.

Parrothead
12-13-2004, 10:36 PM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?
As someone else stated.....You can't steal first. Given his average providing he is healthy and depending on who is hitting behind him I would guess about 65 bases for next year. It seems whoever comes to the Sox lately forgets how to run and steal.

ilsox7
12-13-2004, 10:37 PM
As someone else stated.....You can't steal first. Given his average providing he is healthy and depending on who is hitting behind him I would guess about 65 bases for next year. It seems whoever comes to the Sox lately forgets how to run and steal.
Who has come to the Sox and forgotten how to steal bases?

pinwheels3530
12-13-2004, 10:38 PM
Will he even be able to get on base?:D:

pearso66
12-13-2004, 10:41 PM
I said 70-79. He had 70 with his average and OBP last year, and I can't see that going down. in fact I see it going up, so I say at least 70, unless he starts hitting more doubles, then who knows. I just hope if his problem was he was swinging for the fences, Comisky doesnt make him wnat do to that more

ilsox7
12-13-2004, 10:44 PM
Has anyone looked at his splits? He was MUCH better on the road last year.

Avg: .274
OBP: .330
HR: 9


OBP isn't great but maybe playing in a hitter's park for 81 games we'll see somehting more in line with 2003.

basilesox
12-13-2004, 10:47 PM
Does anybody think that maybe Scott Podsednik's Rookie season was a complete fluke.

Now I am in no way going to annoint Eric Karabell as all-knowing, but when I was thinking about drafting Podsednik on my fantasy team before last year....I read an article where Karabell actually predicted Podsednik's collapse last year. He said watch out for Podsednik who had a below average second half in 2003. I think pitchers in the NL have just started to figure him out. He might be in for a pretty poor 2004.

Well it seems to me that Karabell was right on with his prediction and "Pods" maybe in for a bust.....unless the AL pitchers don't have the book on him yet.

MRKARNO
12-13-2004, 10:47 PM
Has anyone looked at his splits? He was MUCH better on the road last year.

Avg: .274
OBP: .330
HR: 9


OBP isn't great but maybe playing in a hitter's park for 81 games we'll see somehting more in line with 2003. And in 2003, his OBP on the road was .403, so this clearly is a trend...

pearso66
12-13-2004, 10:50 PM
Does anybody think that maybe Scott Podsednik's Rookie season was a complete fluke.

Now I am in no way going to annoint Eric Karabell as all-knowing, but when I was thinking about drafting Podsednik on my fantasy team before last year....I read an article where Karabell actually predicted Podsednik's collapse last year. He said watch out for Podsednik who had a below average second half in 2003. I think pitchers in the NL have just started to figure him out. He might be in for a pretty poor 2004.

Well it seems to me that Karabell was right on with his prediction and "Pods" maybe in for a bust.....unless the AL pitchers don't have the book on him yet.

I think either one of them could be a fluke, but since he's only played 2 years its hard to say. My question is, so many people are so high on Rowand yet he has never put up numbers to show that he can do what he did last year again. Which makes me think that his year last year was a fluke.

MeanFish
12-13-2004, 10:59 PM
Rowand has hit at least .285 in 3 out of 4 seasons. The only one in which he didn't was his first full season in the majors, in limited action. In 2003 he was developing quite a power stroke just as we picked up Carl Everett. In 2004, well, you know the deal.

All signs point to Rowand being for real. Why is it so hard to believe?

pearso66
12-13-2004, 11:02 PM
I just dont see him as being a solid player. I will gladly eat crow if he proves me wrong, but something about him doesn't shout out stud like so many of people here tend to think

Tragg
12-13-2004, 11:03 PM
What I'm interested in is how many runs he will score; not enogh, I'm afraid.

fusillirob1983
12-13-2004, 11:15 PM
I've always wondered the same thing about Rowand too, in terms of people talking about having one good year. Konerko as well, people talk about him reverting to his 2003 form even though that was the only season he played so poorly since he's been on the Sox.

jabrch
12-13-2004, 11:21 PM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?

If his OBP is in the .360s, this was the steal of the century. I'd love to see it.

Parrothead
12-13-2004, 11:23 PM
Who has come to the Sox and forgotten how to steal bases?
could make an arguement for any of the following since 1990.....k lofton, d martinez, d lewis (1 year), t phillips, m deveraux, f franco, e burks, s sax, t raines (2 good years), p bradley.

ilsox7
12-13-2004, 11:27 PM
could make an arguement for any of the following since 1990.....k lofton, d martinez, d lewis (1 year), t phillips, m deveraux, f franco, e burks, s sax, t raines (2 good years), p bradley. OK, I was thinking more of the last few years. If that was the case then maybe there could be some correlation, but most of those guys go back a bit.

batmanZoSo
12-13-2004, 11:47 PM
How can you possibly post a positive thread? Didn't you know that only bitching was allowed in mourning the loss of the perennial All-Star CLee?

I think 70-80 is about right. It will obviously depend on which Scott P. we get. I just enjoy the idea of seeing our 1st inning go like this:

Walk. Steal. Bunt. Sac Fly. 1-0 Sox.

KW better have another starter coming in though. Or else this is BS. I just think it's fair to give it a few days before judging the deal.

Or infield hit, steal, blooper. 1-0.

StockdaleForVeep
12-14-2004, 01:04 AM
wheres the option for him blowing his knee out and missing the season?

OurBitchinMinny
12-14-2004, 01:35 AM
How can you possibly post a positive thread? Didn't you know that only bitching was allowed in mourning the loss of the perennial All-Star CLee?

I think 70-80 is about right. It will obviously depend on which Scott P. we get. I just enjoy the idea of seeing our 1st inning go like this:

Walk. Steal. Bunt. Sac Fly. 1-0 Sox.

KW better have another starter coming in though. Or else this is BS. I just think it's fair to give it a few days before judging the deal.

lee will be an NL all star, but lets see how posednik improves on his robust .240 average from last year. I think lee is a little closer to being a perennial all star than scotty p.

MUsoxfan
12-14-2004, 01:36 AM
With the White Sox he'll have the opportunity to be on base alot more. I imagine Ozzie will give him free reign to steal whenever he'd like. I don't expect less than 65 SB's. That's usually the team total. I'm already loving the thought of Scotty Po on the team

StockdaleForVeep
12-14-2004, 02:13 AM
With the White Sox he'll have the opportunity to be on base alot more. I imagine Ozzie will give him free reign to steal whenever he'd like. I don't expect less than 65 SB's. That's usually the team total. I'm already loving the thought of Scotty Po on the team


How will he have a better chance with the sox to be onbase? Thats like sayin clayton had a better shot at raising his average cuz he went to texas.

My point is this, what good is all this speed and such and small ball if we have no one established(lee has been consistant) to drive them in.

MUsoxfan
12-14-2004, 02:17 AM
How will he have a better chance with the sox to be onbase? Thats like sayin clayton had a better shot at raising his average cuz he went to texas.

My point is this, what good is all this speed and such and small ball if we have no one established(lee has been consistant) to drive them in.
He'll have a better shot of getting on base because of the players around him. Say Rowand and Thomas (or Dye or whomever) follow him. Any of these players are better than those up in Milw. And the bottom of the Sox order doesn't include a pitcher. Podsednik will be less likely to want to swing for the fences than he was last year. More than likely last year he felt he had to do everything on his own because nobody else was getting on base. When Podsednik relaxes and gets the ball into the hole success will happen. GOD I LOVE THIS TRADE! It's a dream come true.

JRIG
12-14-2004, 04:17 AM
He'll have a better shot of getting on base because of the players around him. Say Rowand and Thomas (or Dye or whomever) follow him. Any of these players are better than those up in Milw.
Wait. Doesn't this make it less likely opposing pitchers will want to put Podsednik on base? Last year no one was there to drive him in. This year he has Thomas and Dye. So why would pitchers make it easier for the lead off man to get on?

JRIG
12-14-2004, 04:18 AM
How can you possibly post a positive thread? Didn't you know that only bitching was allowed in mourning the loss of the perennial All-Star CLee?

I think 70-80 is about right. It will obviously depend on which Scott P. we get. I just enjoy the idea of seeing our 1st inning go like this:

Walk. Steal. Bunt. Sac Fly. 1-0 Sox.

And the top of the 2nd inning going:

Walk, single, home run, single, home run?

5-1 Opposition.

We'll get killed in U.S. Cellular if the plan is to give away two outs every inning.

ilsox7
12-14-2004, 04:20 AM
And the top of the 2nd inning going:

Walk, single, home run, single, home run?

5-1 Opposition.

We'll get killed in U.S. Cellular if the plan is to give away two outs every inning. Not if the pitching is upgraded with the extra cash. A Clement gives us a rock solid Top 3 and a #4 who can be as good as a #2 (JC) and a #5 who will win us 9-10 games. Not to mention a terrific bullpen.

JRIG
12-14-2004, 07:30 AM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?
Nobody has had 100 stolen bases since 1987, nobody has had 80 since 1988, but Podsednik is the guy to change that?

OK

Hitmen77
12-14-2004, 08:19 AM
I predict that he will coincidentally steal the same # of bases and the # of Sox wins next season. So, I'm guessing 79 steals.

duke of dorwood
12-14-2004, 08:25 AM
59 steals-40 of them when we are down 4 runs or more

Palehose13
12-14-2004, 08:31 AM
Nobody has had 100 stolen bases since 1987, nobody has had 80 since 1988, but Podsednik is the guy to change that?

OK
Sure. Look at his BA and OBP last year...not so good, but he still so stole 70. If he improves on that just a little he'll more than likely get 80+.

PaulDrake
12-14-2004, 08:45 AM
Sure. Look at his BA and OBP last year...not so good Then why all the joy? Oh, I forgot. "Financial flexibility" and all that.

JRIG
12-14-2004, 08:46 AM
Then why all the joy? Oh, I forgot. "Financial flexibility" and all that.
Because obviously last year and his entire minor league career are the exceptions. Podsednik's 2003 season is the rule.

Palehose13
12-14-2004, 09:10 AM
I've happened to see this guy play a lot in the last few years and he's a gamer. He was on a horse**** team last year, and I am hoping that he will not try to do everything this year like he did last year.

Look, I love Carlos Lee and I am not happy to see him go (like most everyone else I wish it was PK), but I like the direction that this team is heading. I think Podsednik is an "Ozzieball" type player and many will be happy with this trade come July. If not, I will be happy to eat crow.

Plus, I think too many people see this trade as Lee for Podsednik straight up. It's not. It's Lee for 3, possibly 4 players...and I really do believe that another SP will be added to the rotation. The bullpen looks good and with a solid 5 starters the pitching and defense is there. Too many people think that Carlos Lee was the only offense last year, but he wasn't. The Sox still have power in PK, Thomas, Dye, and Everett. Heck, even Uribe and Rowand can give it a ride.

Podesednik can make things happen. How many times have we seen our team's, or even opposing team's pitchers get "nervous" when a base stealing threat (like Brian Roberts) is on base, break concentration, and give up a grapefruit to the batter? I believe I have seen the Sox do it quite a bit. Podesednik brings balance. Something that we haven't had in years. We still have heavy hitters, now we have pitching and defense as well. I like it. Sorry if that upsets you.

MRKARNO
12-14-2004, 09:19 AM
Nobody has had 100 stolen bases since 1987, nobody has had 80 since 1988, but Podsednik is the guy to change that?

OK

Vince Coleman isnt going to the Hall of Fame anytime soon but he was the last guy to have 100. Most people probably couldnt even tell you that. If Coleman can steal 107 with a .301 OBP, Podsednik has the ability to steal 100 with a .360 OBP.

Palehose13
12-14-2004, 09:25 AM
Vince Coleman isnt going to the Hall of Fame anytime soon but he was the last guy to have 100. Most people probably couldnt even tell you that. If Coleman can steal 107 with a .301 OBP, Podsednik has the ability to steal 100 with a .360 OBP.
Don't try to use logic. Stolen bases are overrated anyway...

Jjav829
12-14-2004, 09:36 AM
Don't try to use logic. Stolen bases are overrated anyway...
Are you sure they are? Hold on, I gotta go consult my Bill James and Billy Beane books to see what they say. I'll be right back with an answer...

mjharrison72
12-14-2004, 09:39 AM
I think he has a real chance of hitting the 100 SB mark next year with Ozzie managing and Raines on the bench, especially if his OBP goes back into the .360 range and assuming he hasnt lost a step. What does everyone else here think?I hope you're right! I think even having a 50 SB man on the team will make a gigantic difference next year.

Frater Perdurabo
12-14-2004, 10:41 AM
I hope you're right! I think even having a 50 SB man on the team will make a gigantic difference next year.

I think it will make a difference, too. If Rowand, Thomas, Everett or Dye is up to bat with Podsednik at first and threating to steal second (or at second, threatening to steal third), the pitcher is more likely to make a mistake pitch and/or groove a fastball. That alone could boost the RBI totals of the Sox #2-#6 hitters.

California Sox
12-14-2004, 11:14 AM
Because obviously last year and his entire minor league career are the exceptions. Podsednik's 2003 season is the rule.If his entire minor league career was so good, how come he spent NINE years down there? :?:

DaveIsHere
12-14-2004, 11:15 AM
Well look how bad Maggs, minor league stats were for a while, you never know what will happen

Hangar18
12-14-2004, 11:44 AM
the guy hit .244, and that was in the bogus National League.
You can bet that average will get WORSE in the much more competitive
American League. Pitchers will simply Pitch around Konerko and Thomas
to get to Dye and Everett. A High Powered offense that needed "table-setters" and "speed" to complement it, simply subtracted the Offense
now. *sighs*

JRIG
12-14-2004, 11:48 AM
If his entire minor league career was so good, how come he spent NINE years down there? :?:
Which was my point. I thought it was too obvious to use teal, but...:smile:

jordan23ventura
12-14-2004, 11:59 AM
I've always wondered the same thing about Rowand too, in terms of people talking about having one good year. Konerko as well, people talk about him reverting to his 2003 form even though that was the only season he played so poorly since he's been on the Sox.
Yes, people do talk don't they?

Talk, talk, talk.

Rowand showed hustle, consistency in production, and drive. Usually players like that tend to stick around after their first 'big' season.

California Sox
12-14-2004, 01:35 PM
I think given the fact that the leadoff hitter leads off fewer innings in the AL and has more runners (Ben Davis?) on in front of him, Podsednik will likely have a few more RBI and fewer stolen bases. I'd say roughly 50 or to put it another way, he's the second coming of John Cangelosi.

SoxxoS
12-14-2004, 01:40 PM
What happens if you add 70 doubles to his totals? What does that do for his slugging %? What would his OPS be then? Bueller?

California Sox
12-14-2004, 02:25 PM
What happens if you add 70 doubles to his totals? What does that do for his slugging %? What would his OPS be then? Bueller?
There was a popular stat in the eighties promulgated by Sport magazine called Total Average (which was basically a precursor to OPS) the formula is to add up all the bases a player accumulates and divide them by the number of outs he makes so TA= Hits + Doubles + (2xTriples) + (3xHRs) + SB + BBs + HBP - CS -GiDPs divided by (ABs-hits) + CS + GiDP. I couldn't find (and didn't look that hard for) Podsednik's GiDPs or HBPs. Unless he does an awful lot of either, they're not going to significantly affect the output. The number I got was .683. In short, 70 stolen bases added to a .677 OPS gives you a .683 TA. Stolen bases are simply not statistically significant anywhere but Rotoworld.

nodiggity59
12-14-2004, 02:30 PM
There was a popular stat in the eighties promulgated by Sport magazine called Total Average (which was basically a precursor to OPS) the formula is to add up all the bases a player accumulates and divide them by the number of outs he makes so TA= Hits + Doubles + (2xTriples) + (3xHRs) + SB + BBs + HBP - CS -GiDPs divided by (ABs-hits) + CS + GiDP. I couldn't find (and didn't look that hard for) Podsednik's GiDPs or HBPs. Unless he does an awful lot of either, they're not going to significantly affect the output. The number I got was .683. In short, 70 stolen bases added to a .677 OPS gives you a .683 TA. Stolen bases are simply not statistically significant anywhere but Rotoworld.
Don't get hung up on the stats. The stats have said for years the Sox were better than the Twins. The Twins had a negative run differential in 2003 and won 90 games. The Sox will probably STILL have better stats than the Twins next year, only now they have the pen depth and speed to turn close Ls into Ws.

California Sox
12-14-2004, 02:37 PM
Don't get hung up on the stats. The stats have said for years the Sox were better than the Twins. The Twins had a negative run differential in 2003 and won 90 games. The Sox will probably STILL have better stats than the Twins next year, only now they have the pen depth and speed to turn close Ls into Ws.
He asked a question about stats. :?:

nodiggity59
12-14-2004, 02:40 PM
He asked a question about stats. :?:
Right :redneck . I wasn't disagreeing with talking about stats, just that the conclusion that Pods' steals are of no significance to the Sox is flawed, IMO.

Stats are important, unfortunately they are the only thing the Sox have been good at the past few years. At least on offense.