PDA

View Full Version : James projects Frank to hit only 538 HR's?


Bisco Stu
11-15-2004, 01:55 AM
Jeff Bagwell (561), Adrian Beltre (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6039) (555), Barry Bonds (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=3918) (918), Eric Chavez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6114) (509), Carlos Delgado (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5178) (556), Adam Dunn (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6763) (682), Jim Edmonds (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5151) (508), Juan Gonzalez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4398) (534), Ken Griffey Jr. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4305), (620), Vladimir Guerrero (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5737) (659), Todd Helton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5870) (530), Chipper Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5164) (510), Rafael Palmeiro (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=3897) (616), Alex Rodriguez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5275) (779), Scott Rolen (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5668) (503), Gary Sheffield (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4268) (569), Sammy Sosa (756), Frank Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4527) (538) and Jim Thome (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4762) (644).

39thandWallace
11-15-2004, 02:19 AM
these numbers are ludicrous who is James and what is he smoking?

SomebodyToldMe
11-15-2004, 02:31 AM
918!!!!!!!!!

Yowzers!

NWSox
11-15-2004, 02:39 AM
We need some more information on the source here. I assume you're referring to Bill James, but some of those numbers are absurd.

Dolanski
11-15-2004, 09:01 AM
This was from Peter Gammon's ESPN article in which he puts some interesting snippets from Bill James' 2005 Handbook. My guess is the numbers are based on a calculation of season stats, which, if you consider that Frank has missed 1-1/2 to 2 years recently, those numbers probably make sense.

The point was that before 1998 there were 16 players with 500 homers or more. Currently, there are 19 who are projected to finish with more than 500. And who says steriods haven't affected the game?

jabrch
11-15-2004, 09:21 AM
I hope just cuz Bill James was a consultant to Theo Epstein doesn't mean Jame's manipulated numbers suddenly will take on any more credibility. I like some of his stuff - but other parts are complete hooey. I think these projections reek of hooey.

doublem23
11-15-2004, 10:01 AM
And who says steriods haven't affected the game?
Guys are bigger for reasons other than steroids nowadays, too.

Dolanski
11-15-2004, 10:05 AM
Yeah, true. Better conditioning, diet, study of the game, water down pitching, armor at the plate, sure those things contribute, but the juice is obviously in the game. Bonds and Sosa, compare pictures now to 1992. Compare numbers now to 1992. Are you going to tell me that is all legit? I don't think so. Its true that hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports and that steroids won't help you make contact directly (increased bat speed not withstanding), but the increased strength will turn a warning track fly ball into an HR.

mweflen
11-15-2004, 10:23 AM
The other numbers aside, I think 538 is actually a pretty good prediction for Frank. He only has 436 right now, and has only played one full season since 2000. Let's say he has 3 seasons left in him - 102 HRs in that span would be pretty good given his general trend.

ma-gaga
11-15-2004, 11:42 AM
Yeah, some of those numbers are pretty good, some seem rediculous. There's no way Griffey Jr breaks 600 (Wow. I guess he's already at 501...).

Maybe it's not so bad.
918. Wow.

HomeFish
11-15-2004, 11:52 AM
Only 538? Only?

I'm not complaining...

Frater Perdurabo
11-15-2004, 12:21 PM
Guys are bigger for reasons other than steroids nowadays, too.

Yeah, like Human Growth Hormone and Flintstone's Vitamins. :redneck

Actually, you do have a point that nutrition, water quality standards, food safety regulations and physical fitness programs have improved over the years. However, one can't discount the influence of artificial substances in the inflation of power numbers.

mweflen
11-15-2004, 12:33 PM
Longevity is the key to breaking HR records, not strength.

If it were about strength, Big Frank would already be near the top of the heap. Hank Aaron was a pretty slight guy compared to today's power hitters. And he never broke 50 in a season - he averaged 32 per year.

The thing that drugs and trainers and nutritionists allow players to do is recover better from workouts and injuries, allowing them to play longer and therefore hit more homers. This is, of course, as long as they can avoid the increased risk of tendon and ligament injuries that come with steroids.

That, mediocre pitching, and juiced balls, account for the power explosion.

Dolanski
11-15-2004, 02:18 PM
Strange injuries? You mean like straining your back while sneezing?

Baby Fisk
11-15-2004, 02:21 PM
Man, there is a lot of crazy **** on the Internet.

SoxFanTillDeath
11-15-2004, 02:58 PM
Strange injuries? You mean like straining your back while sneezing?
:tealpolice:
Or straining your eyes trying to read a post in light blue...

SoxFanTillDeath
11-15-2004, 03:03 PM
Jeff Bagwell (561), Adrian Beltre (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6039) (555), Barry Bonds (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=3918) (918), Eric Chavez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6114) (509), Carlos Delgado (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5178) (556), Adam Dunn (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6763) (682), Jim Edmonds (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5151) (508), Juan Gonzalez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4398) (534), Ken Griffey Jr. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4305), (620), Vladimir Guerrero (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5737) (659), Todd Helton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5870) (530), Chipper Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5164) (510), Rafael Palmeiro (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=3897) (616), Alex Rodriguez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5275) (779), Scott Rolen (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5668) (503), Gary Sheffield (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4268) (569), Sammy Sosa (756), Frank Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4527) (538) and Jim Thome (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4762) (644).

That's all a load of crab. Bonds isn't breaking 800, let alone 900. You're telling me Sammy Sosa will break Ruth's and Aaron's numbers after he's not even hitting in the 3, 4, or even the 5 hole? Does anyone else remember when Rafy Palmeiro was begging teams to pick him up so he could get to 500, and now you say he'll get to 600?!? And don't even tell me injury prone players like Juan Gone and Griffey are going to be around long enough to reach their numbers. Also, Delgado is in a spiraling down trend...he's not getting many more HRs. I'd like to see Adam Dunn's K projection, because I'd believe an astronomical number there if I saw it, but not when you tell me he's gonna hit almost 700 HRs after 1 good season. (same idea with Beltre)

FarWestChicago
11-15-2004, 04:22 PM
Strange injuries? You mean like straining your back while sneezing?Not Teal!!

:tealpolice:

MarkEdward
11-15-2004, 04:32 PM
I thinks Gammons is referring to Bill James's Favorite Toy formula (I haven't read the article though). Here's the formula, make of it what you will:
http://baseball-fever.com/archive/index.php/t-6155.html

And Bill James may be a crazy old kook, but he has a World Series ring.

RKMeibalane
11-15-2004, 04:34 PM
This is a wacked-out thread. There's no way Ken Griffey Jr. is going to hit more than six hundred home runs. It took him forever to get to five hundred because of the injuries he's suffered over the past five seasons.

Ol' No. 2
11-15-2004, 04:39 PM
It's really hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

-Yogi Berra

CubKilla
11-15-2004, 05:01 PM
:tealpolice:
Or straining your eyes trying to read a post in light blue...
Best. Tag. Ever. :bandance:

illinibk
11-15-2004, 07:01 PM
That, mediocre pitching, and juiced balls, account for the power explosion.
Don't forget the over-abundance of tiny ballparks these days, that certainly helps as well.

ondafarm
11-15-2004, 07:04 PM
Only 538? Only?

I'm not complaining...
Still solid HOF numbers.

johnny_mostil
11-15-2004, 07:23 PM
I thinks Gammons is referring to Bill James's Favorite Toy formula (I haven't read the article though). Here's the formula, make of it what you will:
http://baseball-fever.com/archive/index.php/t-6155.html

And Bill James may be a crazy old kook, but he has a World Series ring.
Yes, it's the Favorite Toy. The formula has been around for 20+ years, it's very simple, it doesn't require cooking any numbers, and it works pretty well. His estimate for Wade Boggs' career using something called Brock6 after 2 years was dead on.

FWIW, Bill James has revolutionized the way both the public and the professional baseball men perceive the sport. He should be a Hall of Fame sportswriter.

A. Cavatica
11-15-2004, 09:11 PM
By my calculations, Joe Borchard projects to hit 12 career homers.

Deadguy
11-15-2004, 09:29 PM
Sabermetrics are better used to analyze what has already taken place, but are essentially useless as far as predicting the future. Such factors as Gary Sheffield's injuries will affect his ability to crack 500 homeruns, as he has already talked about retiring. Most of these numbers are laughable at best.

Your calculator tells you what you saw occur on the field, not what will happen in the future.

Daver
11-15-2004, 09:38 PM
They have yet to make a micrometer small enough to measure my respect for sabrmetrics.

Baby Fisk
11-16-2004, 09:25 AM
By my calculations, Joe Borchard projects to hit 12 career homers.But at a distance roughly equivalent from the Earth to Neptune.

batmanZoSo
11-16-2004, 01:41 PM
these numbers are ludicrous who is James and what is he smoking?
I'd like to purchase some, whatever it is. It's so funny that even in a ridiculous, over-estimated simulation, Thomas still gets the least respect when he's a better all around hitter than everyone on that list but one (and we all know who that is).

Although I don't aim anything bad at Bill James because I believe he's one of the smart ones who realizes how good Thomas is and once published a lengthy article touting Thomas's merits as some of the best ever. At the rate Thomas is getting injured, it still isn't all that unlikely that Thomas will never reach 500. Though I totally believe he will and then some--probably 530-550.

Nick@Nite
11-16-2004, 07:05 PM
these numbers are ludicrous who is James and what is he smoking?
Smoking severe chronic. And he surely drank the bong water, too.

johnny_mostil
11-16-2004, 08:29 PM
Sabermetrics are better used to analyze what has already taken place, but are essentially useless as far as predicting the future. Such factors as Gary Sheffield's injuries will affect his ability to crack 500 homeruns, as he has already talked about retiring. Most of these numbers are laughable at best.

Your calculator tells you what you saw occur on the field, not what will happen in the future.
Demonstrably untrue. Batters are actually predictable. You can't predict every batter right, but the old STATS handbooks (Bill James) were decently close for far more players than they were wrong. The Favorite Toy is not that useful, but other methods exist that are good enough you could bet on them.

El Kenballo
11-16-2004, 11:05 PM
Adam Dunn 682? ***
how many does he have now? 200?