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MrKinsella
10-31-2004, 11:43 AM
I'm no bill James but I do know that Park Adjusted ERA is the best way
to statistically gage a pitcher. I myself do not know the formula for
park adjustment ERA, if anyone does I would love to hear it. That
being said I would argue that the next best way to determain a players
ability to pitch through statistics would be by using their away ERA. (If
you want to argue this fact you can.) The same holds true for
determining offensive production, when instead using OPS for away games. By
comparing these stats this is what I figure the White Sox should look to
do.



Here are the Away ERA's for all pitchers that Ive seen considered on
this site.



Randy Johnson 2.77

Odalis Perez 3.21

Carl Pavano 2.83

Kevin Millwood 4.77

Tim Hudson 3.84

Eric Milton 5.12

Derek Lowe 6.21

Pedro Martinez 4.61

Russ Ortiz 3.61



This shows they should target Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, and Russ Ortiz
in that order considering cost. I know Randy Johnson scores better
than anyone in this category, but his cost is far more then the other
three.



Interesting fact about this is Fenway, a traditionally hitter friendly
park was pitcher friendly to both Pedro and Lowe who had substantially
better home ERA's (3.22 and 4.55 respectively)



As far as our infield goes the SS debate looks like this from an OPS
standpoint


Omar Vizquel .774 away OPS .741 season OPS
Edgar Renteria .705 Away .728 season OPS
Jose Valentin .747 away .760 season OPS
Willie Harris .685 away .665 season
Orlando Cabrera .745 away .689 season OPS

Even disregarding their ability to field the ball Vizquel seems to be a steal here with no one else being significantly worth while at their high price.

If we picked up one other solid reliever would this lineup and these offseason acquisitions make anyone happy?

Rowand
Vizquel
Lee
Thomas
Konerko
Uribe
Everett
Crede
Davis/Burke

Bench
Harris, Valdez, Gload

Rotation
Pavano
Garcia
Buerhle
Garland
Contreras


I'm interested to know what people think and if they know anywere to get park adjusted ERA's.

batmanZoSo
10-31-2004, 01:45 PM
I'm no bill James but I do know that Park Adjusted ERA is the best way
to statistically gage a pitcher. I myself do not know the formula for
park adjustment ERA, if anyone does I would love to hear it. That
being said I would argue that the next best way to determain a players
ability to pitch through statistics would be by using their away ERA. (If
you want to argue this fact you can.) The same holds true for
determining offensive production, when instead using OPS for away games. By
comparing these stats this is what I figure the White Sox should look to
do.



Here are the Away ERA's for all pitchers that Ive seen considered on
this site.



Randy Johnson 2.77

Odalis Perez 3.21

Carl Pavano 2.83

Kevin Millwood 4.77

Tim Hudson 3.84

Eric Milton 5.12

Derek Lowe 6.21

Pedro Martinez 4.61

Russ Ortiz 3.61



This shows they should target Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, and Russ Ortiz
in that order considering cost. I know Randy Johnson scores better
than anyone in this category, but his cost is far more then the other
three.



Interesting fact about this is Fenway, a traditionally hitter friendly
park was pitcher friendly to both Pedro and Lowe who had substantially
better home ERA's (3.22 and 4.55 respectively)



As far as our infield goes the SS debate looks like this from an OPS
standpoint


Omar Vizquel .774 away OPS .741 season OPS
Edgar Renteria .705 Away .728 season OPS
Jose Valentin .747 away .760 season OPS
Willie Harris .685 away .665 season
Orlando Cabrera .745 away .689 season OPS

Even disregarding their ability to field the ball Vizquel seems to be a steal here with no one else being significantly worth while at their high price.

If we picked up one other solid reliever would this lineup and these offseason acquisitions make anyone happy?

Rowand
Vizquel
Lee
Thomas
Konerko
Uribe
Everett
Crede
Davis/Burke

Bench
Harris, Valdez, Gload

Rotation
Pavano
Garcia
Buerhle
Garland
Contreras


I'm interested to know what people think and if they know anywere to get park adjusted ERA's.

That would be an excellent rotation. We'd still need a reliever or two though.

Vizquel is the best option on that list. Cabrera is the only other "realistic" one, but he tries to hit a home run every time up and you don't know what you're gonna get from him. Vizquel will improve our on-field intelligence level and if healthy he'll give you .280 and a respectable obp with great defense.

We also need a catcher and I'd be pretty happy with that team going in.

santo=dorf
10-31-2004, 02:26 PM
As far as our infield goes the SS debate looks like this from an OPS
standpoint


Omar Vizquel .774 away OPS .741 season OPS
Edgar Renteria .705 Away .728 season OPS
Jose Valentin .747 away .760 season OPS
Willie Harris .685 away .665 season
Orlando Cabrera .745 away .689 season OPS

Even disregarding their ability to field the ball Vizquel seems to be a steal here with no one else being significantly worth while at their high price.
I'm pasting this in the SS argument thread. Nice work. :redneck

Soxforlife
10-31-2004, 02:29 PM
I like that lineup with a few changes. One I think we need an upgrade at third base. I know that Crede has potential but he seems to stuborn to try and shorten up his swing. I like Troy Glaus if he can be had for cheep. Also a comment on Vizquel. He would be great if we can get him for 2 or 3 million a yr. not 4 million. And finaly we would need a closer. I think that Shingo would make a great set up man because of his ability to change speeds. He doesn't throw hard enough to be a ligit closer and I think that we saw that at the end of the year. Other than that I would be happy to start the year with that lineup assuming Rowand stays hot because that rotation looks awsome.