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GAsoxfan
10-22-2004, 11:53 AM
Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.

I know he's probably the best bullpen guy the Sox have, and it's usually not a wise idea to trade away a quality reliever (who can also close), but history says hitters will catch up in a year or two and reduce Shingo to a mediocre reliever at best. Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect? could net the Sox a quality starter.

Once again, don't trade him just to trade him, but if KW could find a good deal he should pull the trigger.

idseer
10-22-2004, 11:57 AM
Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.

I know he's probably the best bullpen guy the Sox have, and it's usually not a wise idea to trade away a quality reliever (who can also close), but history says hitters will catch up in a year or two and reduce Shingo to a mediocre reliever at best. Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect? could net the Sox a quality starter.

Once again, don't trade him just to trade him, but if KW could find a good deal he should pull the trigger.
then who saves?

i hate this kind of thinking. take one of the FEW aspects that were positive for the sox (like konerko) .... and TRADE HIM! and just because you think japanese pitchers are only good for a year or 2.
SHEESH!

mweflen
10-22-2004, 11:58 AM
Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.

I know he's probably the best bullpen guy the Sox have, and it's usually not a wise idea to trade away a quality reliever (who can also close), but history says hitters will catch up in a year or two and reduce Shingo to a mediocre reliever at best. Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect? could net the Sox a quality starter.

Once again, don't trade him just to trade him, but if KW could find a good deal he should pull the trigger.
Despite my undying love and affection for Shingo, I find myself tending to agree. In addition the the fact that he's due a $2.5 mil extension in 2005, it did seem like AL batters were catching up (or slowing down) to him.

He will likely flourish in the NL for a season, though.

Methinks a trade to an NL team for a young 2B or OF might be in order. Or, in the alternative, for a slightly overpriced but still productive OF slugger with a short contract to replace Maggs in the short term.

cbrownson13
10-22-2004, 12:13 PM
then who saves?

i hate this kind of thinking. take one of the FEW aspects that were positive for the sox (like konerko) .... and TRADE HIM! and just because you think japanese pitchers are only good for a year or 2.
SHEESH!

The problem is though that hitters started figuring him out towards the end of last year. And this theory has usually held true.

You bring up a great point when you ask who will save. But also ask yourself who will save if the "theory" holds true. Granted, that may or may not happen and it may be too big of a risk to trade him rather than keep him, but if you can get something good out of him... then maybe.

LVSoxFan
10-22-2004, 12:16 PM
Does this theory hold true, though?

Does anybody have any backup on that? I'm not arguing the point, just curious about some historical examples.

wdelaney72
10-22-2004, 12:31 PM
Until there's a better option, we have to hold on to Shingo. Besides, we have WAY too many other holes to fill.

idseer
10-22-2004, 01:35 PM
The problem is though that hitters started figuring him out towards the end of last year. And this theory has usually held true.

You bring up a great point when you ask who will save. But also ask yourself who will save if the "theory" holds true. Granted, that may or may not happen and it may be too big of a risk to trade him rather than keep him, but if you can get something good out of him... then maybe.so ......this theory says that all pitchers who pitched worse the 2nd half of the season than the first are being ...'caught up to' and are on the downside of their careers. right? funny how japanese hitters never caught up to him, isn't it? let's ignore his whole history and assume he's already lost it! :rolleyes:
the only reason people spout this crap is because he was untouchable for a while. when he came down out of the clouds he was 'only' terrific. let's dump him!

this man had 20 save opportunities and converted 19. was there ANY one else who can match that efficiency?

daveeym
10-22-2004, 01:44 PM
I look at shingo as no different than a knuckleballer. He'll get roughed up at times but the league is not going to "catch up" to him. You see a guy like him so rarely and the hitters are so conditioned to 95 mph that you won't see a major catch up to shingo.

GAsoxfan
10-22-2004, 01:46 PM
[QUOTE=idseer]so ......this theory says that all pitchers who pitched worse the 2nd half of the season than the first are being ...'caught up to' and are on the downside of their careers. right? funny how japanese hitters never caught up to him, isn't it?QUOTE]

First off, no the theory doesn't say that, way to take a piece that someone else said and twist it though. I see politics in your future.

Funny how very few Japanese hitters make it to the MLB. Could it be that MLB hitters are more talented than Japanese hitters? No, couldn't be.

mjharrison72
10-22-2004, 01:50 PM
The problem is though that hitters started figuring him out towards the end of last year. And this theory has usually held true.

You bring up a great point when you ask who will save. But also ask yourself who will save if the "theory" holds true. Granted, that may or may not happen and it may be too big of a risk to trade him rather than keep him, but if you can get something good out of him... then maybe.
I have another theory: it seems like every closer the Sox go after turns to crap.

I agree that Shingo's track record in Japan leads me to believe he's not going to let hitters "figure him out." About 99% of being a closer is what goes on between your ears, and Shingo proved in Japan and has proved with the Sox he has the stuff to do his job and do it well. He's a steal at the $2.5 mil extension price, and I hope they hang on to him.

idseer
10-22-2004, 03:06 PM
[QUOTE=idseer]so ......this theory says that all pitchers who pitched worse the 2nd half of the season than the first are being ...'caught up to' and are on the downside of their careers. right? funny how japanese hitters never caught up to him, isn't it?QUOTE]

First off, no the theory doesn't say that, way to take a piece that someone else said and twist it though. I see politics in your future.

Funny how very few Japanese hitters make it to the MLB. Could it be that MLB hitters are more talented than Japanese hitters? No, couldn't be.
that's exactly the way you were trying to make the theory sound. change your words if that's not what you meant.

and perhaps the reason there aren't more japanese players here is because they'd rather play in their own country. they make great money in japan and they are worshipped!
you have proof to the contrary?

MRKARNO
10-22-2004, 03:12 PM
No, this is a bad idea. We need all the bullpen help we can get and I doubt we'd get another bullpen arm as good as his in return. There was one stretch in August where he had problems, but other than that he was insane the whole year.

ERA vs Boston and NY: 13.50

ERA vs everyone else: 1.40

Keep that in mind. All his problems came from the two giants in the east. 4 of the 6 months, he posted an ERA under 2 and in three months he posted an ERA under 1. He had that long scoreless inning streak and doesn't anyone remember when he retired 27 or 28 straight batters for a "hidden perfect game"? His problems came when he wasn't getting the calls on the corners, not because hitters started to figure him out. His fastball has a lot of movement and when he gets the calls on the corner, the hitter is apt to go after the frisbee when they are trying to protect the corners. When he locates poorly or doesnt get the calls, he runs into problems. No way I'd let Shingo go. We need him in our pen whether as the closer or just a late inning guy. Your not going to do much better at his price.

Iwritecode
10-22-2004, 03:14 PM
that's exactly the way you were trying to make the theory sound. change your words if that's not what you meant.

and perhaps the reason there aren't more japanese players here is because they'd rather play in their own country. they make great money in japan and they are worshipped!
you have proof to the contrary?

I thought it was the fact that few teams can afford to send scouts over there to check out the players...

Iwritecode
10-22-2004, 03:23 PM
I thought it was the fact that few teams can afford to send scouts over there to check out the players...

Notice the two teams that seem to be bringing in the most Japanese players are Seattle (owned by Nintendo which is based in Japan IIRC) and NY (who don't care how much anything costs).

idseer
10-22-2004, 03:26 PM
I thought it was the fact that few teams can afford to send scouts over there to check out the players...
that's why i said 'perhaps'.
i'm sure there are many reasons why there aren't more japanese players here. but looking at the current crop that we DO have it's obvious they are no longer AAA players.

cburns
10-22-2004, 03:32 PM
The reason why Shingo had "so much" trouble in the second half was because he was getting worn I believe. I'm not exactly sure how many more games they play in the Major Leagues compared to Japan, but it is possible he wasn't used to the work load. Keep him around for another year, and market the hell out of him.

soxtalker
10-22-2004, 03:35 PM
First, anyone on the team should be available in trade for the right price. Now, that price will be mighty high for some players, and I think that Shingo is one of those. We need a top player in his position, so there better be a trade or FA signing to fill the hole left behind -- and then some.

The discussion about Shingo is interesting, however, when examined over a longer period. There has always been a significant group of people (not necessarily the same over time) that has doubted that he can either make it or stay on top in MLB. That's probably going to continue to be true for as long as he is here. He's just so different from most other US major league pitchers -- particularly closers.

I don't think that the batters "figured him out" that much. As others have pointed out, he was terrific for awhile and then came back to earth a bit. But he was still pretty good in September. And, IIRC, one big difference between MLB and Japanese baseball is the length of the season. He probably pitched much more than ever before.

There is one issue peculiar to the Sox about which I would be a bit concerned. Although he fools the batters, he isn't really a strike-out pitcher. I've noticed from the very beginning of the season that he lets the batters put the ball in play. With USCF apparently becoming a hitters paradise, some of those balls are going to fly over the fences for HR.

PaulDrake
10-22-2004, 03:47 PM
Shingo retired the only two batters he faced against Cleveland on Aug 6 to lower his ERA to a miniscule 1.09. Then he hit a rough patch that lasted almost a month. From Aug 7 to Sept 3 he appeared in in 12 games, pitched 11 2/3 innings and gave up 12 hits and 10 earned runs to raise his ERA to 2.56. From Sept 4 to the end of the year he was back on track again pitching 9 2/3 innings and allowing only 7 hits and one earned run to lower his ERA to 2.31 for the year. Opponents hit a whopping .182 against him. I agree that he was one of the few genuinely bright spots in another downer of a year. Trade Lee. Trade Konerko. Now trade Shingo too. Nobody is untouchable in today's game, but I'm not anxious to trade any of our few remaining assets unless we're going to really benefit and strengthen the team. The bullpen was pretty much a mess last year. How many times did I see Jackson, Adkins, Cotts et al with their backs to the plate as they watched yet another of their offerings clear the fence. I'm real happy with Shingo and in no hurry to trade him.

mjharrison72
10-22-2004, 04:03 PM
I don't think that the batters "figured him out" that much. As others have pointed out, he was terrific for awhile and then came back to earth a bit. But he was still pretty good in September. And, IIRC, one big difference between MLB and Japanese baseball is the length of the season. He probably pitched much more than ever before.
Actually, the Japanese baseball season is 140 games, which I wouldn't consider significantly shorter than MLB's 162. Not sure how much Shingo was used there, but if he was the all-time saves leader, I would guess he had a lot of work in a given season. I don't think he was worn... if that were the case, why not just give the ball to Marte for a save situation so Shingo can rest?
http://www.baseballguru.com/jalbright/japanesebaseballprimer.htm

mjharrison72
10-22-2004, 04:19 PM
I actually take that back, after looking at some stats from Takatsu's last season in Japan. With Yakult, he pitched in 44 games, and had 34 saves in 42.0 innings for a 3.00 ERA. With the Sox this year, he pitched 62 1/3 innings over 59 games for 19 saves and a 2.31 ERA. It's possible we tired him out, but it's important to point out he blew only one save all season. The aforementioned high ERA against NYY and Boston was due in part to two games against the Red Sox in which he allowed 2 ER each, yet still got the save in both games, and two games against the Yankees in April where he allowed a total of 3 ER... he never even pitched against the Yankees after becoming the closer!

While I agree if we are made "an offer we can't refuse," we have to let Shingo go, but until then, I think he should be shackled to the bench in the Sox bullpen.

JB98
10-22-2004, 05:30 PM
Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.

I know he's probably the best bullpen guy the Sox have, and it's usually not a wise idea to trade away a quality reliever (who can also close), but history says hitters will catch up in a year or two and reduce Shingo to a mediocre reliever at best. Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect? could net the Sox a quality starter.

Once again, don't trade him just to trade him, but if KW could find a good deal he should pull the trigger.

We have what? Six or seven good players on our team? You are proposing trading two of them. No sale with me.

johnny_mostil
10-22-2004, 07:31 PM
I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.
Aside from pointing out that the same is true for every player on the roster, I would like to point out that other teams are aware of the track records of Japanese pitchers and would offer equally risky merchandise, like Chan Ho Park.:D:

gobears1987
10-22-2004, 08:05 PM
Great, we finally replace Billy Cock with a good pitcher and everyone wants to trade him. Find me another closer who only blew 1 save in 19 attempts and I'll consider a trade, until then, IT'S SHINGO TIME!!!

jortafan
10-22-2004, 08:12 PM
Actually, the Japanese baseball season is 140 games, which I wouldn't consider significantly shorter than MLB's 162. Not sure how much Shingo was used there, but if he was the all-time saves leader, I would guess he had a lot of work in a given season. I don't think he was worn... if that were the case, why not just give the ball to Marte for a save situation so Shingo can rest?
http://www.baseballguru.com/jalbright/japanesebaseballprimer.htm
Another thing to keep in mind is that Japanese ballplayers have their "spring training" start in mid-January, and go through a much more rigorous routine for training than our Sox, or any other U.S. major league team. Shingo may very well have felt more fresh towards the end of the season than he ever did in Japan.

If anything is going to cause Shingo to deteriorate this year, it is his age. After all, he was a 35-year-old rookie who played his best years in Japan, and is getting merely a taste of U.S. major league life towards the end of his career. Personally, I will be surprised if he lasts more than two more seasons before retiring. Let's hope that season or two he still has left as a player are productive seasons for our Sox.

Shingotime!!
10-22-2004, 08:37 PM
Keep Shingo, without him we would be well below 500. Also he's a fan favorite.

Whitesox029
10-22-2004, 10:08 PM
Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect?I apologize, but this is the worst suggestion for a trade that I have seen in a long time. This would decimate 2/3 of the base around which this team needs to rebuild itself. The lineup would be built with speed and power around KONERKO and the pen with effective relievers around TAKATSU (the third piece being Mark Buehrle). You remember what happened last time we assumed our closer was washed up or would soon become washed up? Would you rather have Koch or Foulke right now? For me to be satisfied with the trade proposed above, we would have to be acquiring Mariano Rivera or Albert Pujols. 'Nuff Said.

bigfoot
10-25-2004, 02:46 PM
Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. I think KW needs to look at dealing Shingo while his value is high. I'm not saying dump him for a bag of balls, but if KW found a good deal, it should be considered.

I know he's probably the best bullpen guy the Sox have, and it's usually not a wise idea to trade away a quality reliever (who can also close), but history says hitters will catch up in a year or two and reduce Shingo to a mediocre reliever at best. Maybe a combo of Shingo/Konerko/prospect? could net the Sox a quality starter.

Once again, don't trade him just to trade him, but if KW could find a good deal he should pull the trigger.
I hear that John Rocker is available! What a joke, Shingo traded, when the BP is the WS most urgent need. Let's have no more talk of trading the best man in the bullpen. And who would not want to see Ichiro in their outfield?

Nick@Nite
10-25-2004, 03:16 PM
Shingo hit his rough patch in August when hitters started to jump on the first pitch strike. Shingo got a whole lot of mileage from sneaking the not so fast fastball in there, putting the hitter in an immediate 0-1 hole, and then working his loopy stuff in afterwards. As for what adjustments Shingo made to counteract hitters teeing off on that 88mph str8 first pitch strike, I dunno because I hardly watched any Sox games in September. But Shingo did do something to again have success.

All things aside, I'd keep him around for at least another year. I agree with JB98, why trade one of the few bright spots... unless of course the Dodgers would trade Gagne for Shingo even up.

StockdaleForVeep
10-26-2004, 12:03 PM
then who saves?


Jesus christ?

Tekijawa
10-26-2004, 01:25 PM
[QUOTE=GAsoxfan]Most Japanese pitchers are quite successful their first couple years in the league, but then hitters catch up and they become average at best after that. Since this has happened to almost every Japanese pitcher I don't see why Shingo will be any different. QUOTE]

I know many more College and High school Pitchers that came out fo the Gate really well and then dropped off after 1 or 2 seasons. By your logic we should trade the entire staff... actually that might not be a bad idea?!?!?