PDA

View Full Version : What is with all the Beltran-worship?


mweflen
10-14-2004, 04:34 PM
Look, I know the prospect of losing Maggs has a lot of panties in a lot of twists... and the prospect of looking at Joe Borchard's cracked-out mug for 162 games certainly is worthy of a shudder...

But seriously, what is with all this fawning over Carlos Beltran? So he's having a nice playoffs. So what?

Number one - the Yankees have already expressed a deep desire to have him. Which makes our chances of getting him aboout on a par with snowballs in a certain metephysical realm of punishment.

Number two - I look at the guy's stats. Granted, they're solid numbers. It looks like he's entering his prime. But he's basically a Maggs-type player who both strikes out more and steals more.

Is he worth the $14-15 million he'll likely get per year? Nope. Will the Sox pony up $15m per year? No, they won't, and for once, I can't say I'd blame them. I'd much rather have two $7 or $8 million dollar players like Carlos Lee, who produce just as much offensively at nearly half the price.

I say lock up Caballo into a long term deal at around 8 or 9 mil and spend the rest on pitching. Beltran is overpriced and overhyped.

nodiggity59
10-14-2004, 04:38 PM
Look, I know the prospect of losing Maggs has a lot of panties in a lot of twists... and the prospect of looking at Joe Borchard's cracked-out mug for 162 games certainly is worthy of a shudder...

But seriously, what is with all this fawning over Carlos Beltran? So he's having a nice playoffs. So what?

Number one - the Yankees have already expressed a deep desire to have him. Which makes our chances of getting him aboout on a par with snowballs in a certain metephysical realm of punishment.

Number two - I look at the guy's stats. Granted, they're solid numbers. It looks like he's entering his prime. But he's basically a Maggs-type player who both strikes out more and steals more.

Is he worth the $14-15 million he'll likely get per year? Nope. Will the Sox pony up $15m per year? No, they won't, and for once, I can't say I'd blame them. I'd much rather have two $7 or $8 million dollar players like Carlos Lee, who produce just as much offensively at nearly half the price.

I say lock up Caballo into a long term deal at around 8 or 9 mil and spend the rest on pitching. Beltran is overpriced and overhyped.
Beltran also *walks more* (which compensates for lower BA) and plays high caliber defense at a premium position. Also, saying "he steals more" doesn't even begin to describe the difference between he and Maggs on the bases. Beltran stole over 40 bases this year and was only caught three or four times.

Saying Beltran "steals more" is like saying Maggs "hits more" than Joe Borchard - it is a gross understatement.

Iwritecode
10-14-2004, 04:40 PM
Look, I know the prospect of losing Maggs has a lot of panties in a lot of twists... and the prospect of looking at Joe Borchard's cracked-out mug for 162 games certainly is worthy of a shudder...

But seriously, what is with all this fawning over Carlos Beltran? So he's having a nice playoffs. So what?

Number one - the Yankees have already expressed a deep desire to have him. Which makes our chances of getting him aboout on a par with snowballs in a certain metephysical realm of punishment.

Number two - I look at the guy's stats. Granted, they're solid numbers. It looks like he's entering his prime. But he's basically a Maggs-type player who both strikes out more and steals more.

Is he worth the $14-15 million he'll likely get per year? Nope. Will the Sox pony up $15m per year? No, they won't, and for once, I can't say I'd blame them. I'd much rather have two $7 or $8 million dollar players like Carlos Lee, who produce just as much offensively at nearly half the price.

I say lock up Caballo into a long term deal at around 8 or 9 mil and spend the rest on pitching. Beltran is overpriced and overhyped.

So we already have one Carlos Lee, would you care to tell us who the "other" one is so we can fawn over him instead?

mweflen
10-14-2004, 04:44 PM
Beltran's BB numbers are very comparable to Magglio's over time. Magglio hits 23 points better career (with no indication that Beltran is on the upswing.) Their RBI and HR production is nearly identical.

It's a wash, any way you slice it and dice it. They guy's not worth the $14million Maggs got this year, but then, neither was Maggs.

It's a waste of money to seriously try to land him, and it's a waste of time to imagine him in CF. It's not happening, plain and simple.

mweflen
10-14-2004, 04:46 PM
So we already have one Carlos Lee, would you care to tell us who the "other" one is so we can fawn over him instead?Hey, I wish I could. I'm just saying let's try to find another Carlos-type player (numbers and salary) instead of blowing our wad on one over-hyped and overpaid player.

Besides, since when was offense our problem? With our new bandbox stadium, Uribe is putting up Coors numbers. Why not spend the 6 or 7 mil you don't blow on Beltran and land a decent FA pitcher to shore up a seriously wobbly rotation?

Ol' No. 2
10-14-2004, 04:49 PM
So we already have one Carlos Lee, would you care to tell us who the "other" one is so we can fawn over him instead?:LTP Would you like an autograph?

Iguana775
10-14-2004, 04:53 PM
Beltran also *walks more* (which compensates for lower BA) and plays high caliber defense at a premium position. Also, saying "he steals more" doesn't even begin to describe the difference between he and Maggs on the bases. Beltran stole over 40 bases this year and was only caught three or four times.

Saying Beltran "steals more" is like saying Maggs "hits more" than Joe Borchard - it is a gross understatement.
He's also a gold glove caliber CF and can steal 40 bases.

hold2dibber
10-14-2004, 04:58 PM
Look, I know the prospect of losing Maggs has a lot of panties in a lot of twists... and the prospect of looking at Joe Borchard's cracked-out mug for 162 games certainly is worthy of a shudder...

But seriously, what is with all this fawning over Carlos Beltran? So he's having a nice playoffs. So what?

Number one - the Yankees have already expressed a deep desire to have him. Which makes our chances of getting him aboout on a par with snowballs in a certain metephysical realm of punishment.

Number two - I look at the guy's stats. Granted, they're solid numbers. It looks like he's entering his prime. But he's basically a Maggs-type player who both strikes out more and steals more.

Is he worth the $14-15 million he'll likely get per year? Nope. Will the Sox pony up $15m per year? No, they won't, and for once, I can't say I'd blame them. I'd much rather have two $7 or $8 million dollar players like Carlos Lee, who produce just as much offensively at nearly half the price.

I say lock up Caballo into a long term deal at around 8 or 9 mil and spend the rest on pitching. Beltran is overpriced and overhyped.
I value Beltran more than you do, because of his youth, speed and defense, but I think I agree with your general point. It's like when the Sox signed Albert Belle - he was a great hitter, but the Sox didn't need a great hitter, they needed pitching and signing Belle meant they could afford it. With Frank, Paulie and/or Carlos, Everett, Rowand and Uribe, the Sox have enough "pop". They need some OBP - which probably can be had relatively cheap - and they need pitching. The money it would cost to land Beltran could be used much more effectively elsewhere.

sircaffey1
10-14-2004, 04:59 PM
If we land Beltran, then we say good bye to Konerko. It's pretty much that simple. So do we want Konerko, Odalis Perez, and a relief pitcher or do we want Beltran and Washurn-type pitcher that we'd get in return for Konerko?

If we land Beltran, we are most likely forced to cut corners elsewhere. I personally would like to spread that money out a little. Get a solid top of the order player like Catalanato, a starting pitcher like Perez, and a relief pitcher or two.

That is fine by me.

Palehose13
10-14-2004, 05:05 PM
Beltran's BB numbers are very comparable to Magglio's over time. Magglio hits 23 points better career (with no indication that Beltran is on the upswing.) Their RBI and HR production is nearly identical.

It's a wash, any way you slice it and dice it. They guy's not worth the $14million Maggs got this year, but then, neither was Maggs.

It's a waste of money to seriously try to land him, and it's a waste of time to imagine him in CF. It's not happening, plain and simple.
So don't waste your time. I'll spend my time however I want, thank you. :cool:

Iwritecode
10-14-2004, 05:05 PM
I'm kinda torn.

I see your point. Especially with the limited budget KW has to work with and the "5th starter" problem they've had for years.. On the other hand, Beltran looks like an awful good replacement if we aren't going to get Maggs back.

Can't we have our cake and eat it too? :(:

:reinsy

BA HAH A HA HA HA!!!


:ohno

Crap.

Tekijawa
10-14-2004, 05:57 PM
I'm pretty sure he's also a top of the order Switch hitter with power... teh last time the sox had one of those was...... well.... ummm.. hold on...

JB98
10-14-2004, 06:01 PM
If we land Beltran, then we say good bye to Konerko. It's pretty much that simple. So do we want Konerko, Odalis Perez, and a relief pitcher or do we want Beltran and Washurn-type pitcher that we'd get in return for Konerko?

If we land Beltran, we are most likely forced to cut corners elsewhere. I personally would like to spread that money out a little. Get a solid top of the order player like Catalanato, a starting pitcher like Perez, and a relief pitcher or two.

That is fine by me.

Catalanotto? First, I don't understand this fascination with a player who has only average speed, little power and is weak defensively. Secondly, he signed an extension with Toronto. I really wish people would stop bringing him up. He ain't coming here, and neither is Beltran.

Secondly, I saw Odalis Perez pitch against St. Louis, and he is NOT the answer for the Sox. He totally folded the tent in a big game. He's a left-handed version of Garland.

nodiggity59
10-14-2004, 06:06 PM
Secondly, I saw Odalis Perez pitch against St. Louis, and he is NOT the answer for the Sox. He totally folded the tent in a big game. He's a left-handed version of Garland.
Agreed.

mweflen
10-14-2004, 06:06 PM
At this point, I think the Sox with Beltran would look a lot like the Rangers with A-Rod. The dollars wouldn't be as extreme, but the effect would be similar.

Spread that money around. Get two more picthers for the dough.

I'd like to see a team with nine $3-$5 million dollar position players and four $5mil pitchers than a team with a few "stars" like Maggs and Frank and a bunch of scrubs like Harris.

Guys who hit between .280 and .320, know how to bunt and go the other way, won't hit 40 dingers but might hit 25

Maybe then our chances wouldn't go down the tubes when one or more players go down with an injury!

Granted, with the arbitration structure as it is and the general trend of paying for past performance instead of current performance, finding a player whose salary stayed at $4-5 mil for 5 straight seasons would be difficult.

But a guy could dream, right?

Randar68
10-14-2004, 06:38 PM
At this point, I think the Sox with Beltran would look a lot like the Rangers with A-Rod. The dollars wouldn't be as extreme, but the effect would be similar.
If you insist, but you're still wrong. They payed Maggs 14 million this year. BFD.

Lip Man 1
10-14-2004, 08:12 PM
Teki:

Have you forgotten Tim Raines already?

Lip

santo=dorf
10-14-2004, 08:23 PM
Lip,

He asked for a guy with power, not powder. :)

maurice
10-14-2004, 08:32 PM
I'm pretty sure he's also a top of the order Switch hitter with power... teh last time the sox had one of those was...... well.... ummm.. hold on...
:ray
"Remember me? Career .354 OBP + 137 HR + 242 SBs.
I'm no Beltran, but that's not too shabby. Too bad I
have the range of a fire hydrant on ground balls."

bigfoot
10-15-2004, 01:11 AM
Beltran......switched Leagues in mid-season, after he had one trip around the NL to get used to the pitching/strike zone etc, he's been lights out. Not average, unless Mickey Mantle was average. Yeah, he struggled a bit in KC, not knowing where he was going and the focus of all the offense the Royals had. Notice that the Royals lost 104 games this year.
~Would the Astros have beaten out the Cubs for the WC without Beltran? One more reason to sign him.

cornball
10-15-2004, 08:34 AM
If you insist, but you're still wrong. They payed Maggs 14 million this year. BFD.
Randar is right. The Sox paid Maggs 14MM this year. Money is not the issue.

First, Beltran is a terrific player. A marque player. A player would would bring attention to the franchise, which it desperately needs. A player who would sell additional season tix, also desperately needed. Fits one of the many needs of the club, improving the range in the outfield, speed on the bases....ect

He is a gigantic long, long shot for the Sox. Reasons: #1 Boras. #2 he wants to play for an owner that wants to win. #3 he wants to play for a team that usually makes the playoffs. #4 the competition will be the Yanks, Cubs, Boston?, ect.

Another Cubs fluff piece by Paul Sullivan in today's Trib, has Beltran quoted.

SSN721
10-15-2004, 09:19 AM
This is an issue I am so torn on. First of all because I think that the Sox dont have much a chance of signing him. I would love them too, but if the payroll is kept the same it will really hinder the rest of the team, as did ARod in Texas, as was stated before. But to fail to recognize the value of a player of Beltrans calibur is crazy. Anyone with a budget from 85 mil and up should be pressing hard to get him. But I have to agree that as valuable azs he would be, with our budget at 70-75 mil I just think that he would take up too much of the payroll. Although I would have to say I would still be excited as hell if he was wearing pinstripes (Sox) on opening day next year.

gosox41
10-15-2004, 09:37 AM
Randar is right. The Sox paid Maggs 14MM this year. Money is not the issue.

First, Beltran is a terrific player. A marque player. A player would would bring attention to the franchise, which it desperately needs. A player who would sell additional season tix, also desperately needed. Fits one of the many needs of the club, improving the range in the outfield, speed on the bases....ect

He is a gigantic long, long shot for the Sox. Reasons: #1 Boras. #2 he wants to play for an owner that wants to win. #3 he wants to play for a team that usually makes the playoffs. #4 the competition will be the Yanks, Cubs, Boston?, ect.

Another Cubs fluff piece by Paul Sullivan in today's Trib, has Beltran quoted.
I'm all for signing Beltran, but not if it the Sox don't have the resources to go after a 5th starter and a couple of relievers.

Getting Beltran alone is all nice but it that move alone won't make this team win the division.

Also, about the money issue. The Sox did pay Magglio $14 mill in '03. But how much of that money did they spend already for '04. The Sox will hopefully raise their payroll, but if they don't they can hardly afford to sign Beltran seeing as how they've already spent money on Contreras and Garcia.


Bob

Palehose13
10-15-2004, 10:04 AM
He is a gigantic long, long shot for the Sox. Reasons: #1 Boras. #2 he wants to play for an owner that wants to win. #3 he wants to play for a team that usually makes the playoffs. #4 the competition will be the Yanks, Cubs, Boston?, ect.

Another Cubs fluff piece by Paul Sullivan in today's Trib, has Beltran quoted.
The cubs are a team that usually makes the playoffs? Stop sipping the kool-aid, cornball. Don't believe the hype!

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 10:23 AM
I'm all for signing Beltran, but not if it the Sox don't have the resources to go after a 5th starter and a couple of relievers.

Getting Beltran alone is all nice but it that move alone won't make this team win the division.

Also, about the money issue. The Sox did pay Magglio $14 mill in '03. But how much of that money did they spend already for '04. The Sox will hopefully raise their payroll, but if they don't they can hardly afford to sign Beltran seeing as how they've already spent money on Contreras and Garcia.


Bob
The only way I see this happening is 1)If they deal Konerko/Lee, or 2)If they plan on dealing/releasing one or both of them during or after the '05 season (or Frank), thereby minimizing any long-term impact of the $$$.

Justafan
10-15-2004, 10:39 AM
I think the Beltran worship has to do with the fact he is one of best players in the game and he is only 27 years old. Gold glove caliber defense, leathal on the bases and a 40 HR 110 RBI guy to boot.

I'll take that.

mweflen
10-15-2004, 11:52 AM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-041014nlcsbrite,1,2505545.story?coll=cs-home-headlines


"Beltran Shows Interest In Cubs."

Nuff said.

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 11:55 AM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-041014nlcsbrite,1,2505545.story?coll=cs-home-headlines


"Beltran Shows Interest In Cubs."

Nuff said.The headline should read:

"Tribune Shows Interest in Making it Sound like Beltran is Interested in the Cubs."

kittle42
10-15-2004, 12:09 PM
But a guy could dream, right?
:reinsy
"The fact that Sox fans keep dreaming is the only way I keep you around!"

kittle42
10-15-2004, 12:10 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Beltran will stay in Houston?

mweflen
10-15-2004, 12:14 PM
The headline should read:

"Tribune Shows Interest in Making it Sound like Beltran is Interested in the Cubs."
Well said!

Justafan
10-15-2004, 12:16 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Beltran will stay in Houston?
Yes. There is NO CHANCE they can afford his price tag. They got Clemens on the cheap and have never really been big spenders. Furthermore, Beltran knows(more importantly, Boras knows) how much more money he would make in endorsements in a major market. No way he stays in Houston.

cornball
10-15-2004, 12:20 PM
I'm all for signing Beltran, but not if it the Sox don't have the resources to go after a 5th starter and a couple of relievers.

Getting Beltran alone is all nice but it that move alone won't make this team win the division.

Also, about the money issue. The Sox did pay Magglio $14 mill in '03. But how much of that money did they spend already for '04. The Sox will hopefully raise their payroll, but if they don't they can hardly afford to sign Beltran seeing as how they've already spent money on Contreras and Garcia.


Bob
It is estimated right now with 21 players signed/after arbitration the payroll will be close to @62MM.

How much more new money will the club have to spend on players with the new seats behind home, new tv deal, possible new radio deal ect.? That is the question. It is not like they have to pay to fix the park, Cell One is doing that.

If JR didn't notice, if the team wins....fans show up....this year was another example.

Spend the money on players early and build up the season tix base. That is my prescription.

cornball
10-15-2004, 12:27 PM
Yes. There is NO CHANCE they can afford his price tag. They got Clemens on the cheap and have never really been big spenders. Furthermore, Beltran knows(more importantly, Boras knows) how much more money he would make in endorsements in a major market. No way he stays in Houston.
The point your missing is regardless of the money, with all the teams courting him....why would he choose the Sox for similar money?

Is it the exposure? Is it to make the playoffs? Is it because he has more faith in our organization than the others to win a title?

The teams that will want him will all be big market teams, teams that usually make the playoffs and have a passion to win every year. This is where we fall short....no in the amount to pay him.

Players like to win and when given the chance to play where you want to...you know the rest. Winning cures all. We do not have the track record of doing so.

cornball
10-15-2004, 12:35 PM
The cubs are a team that usually makes the playoffs? Stop sipping the kool-aid, cornball. Don't believe the hype!
Trust me not many people dislike the Cubs more than I do. BUT they play in a sold out stadium every day, get great exposure and have one of the larger payrolls in the game.

I think you took my quote out of context anyway. I was saying teams with the inside track will be teams with the best chance to win it all or teams usually in the playoffs. (it is usually the same core of teams). The Cubs were listed as a suitor of Beltran based on recent newspaper articles here in Chicago.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 12:38 PM
The point your missing is regardless of the money, with all the teams courting him....why would he choose the Sox for similar money?

Is it the exposure? Is it to make the playoffs? Is it because he has more faith in our organization than the others to win a title?

The teams that will want him will all be big market teams, teams that usually make the playoffs and have a passion to win every year. This is where we fall short....no in the amount to pay him.

Players like to win and when given the chance to play where you want to...you know the rest. Winning cures all. We do not have the track record of doing so.
This may be where Ozzie comes in as a factor. I think the "shine" is wearing off the "Dusty Baker as recruiter" advantage the Chubs supposedly had.

Also, who's to say that a team led by Beltran, Frank, Carlos, Koney, Garcia, Buehrle isn't a better bet to win given the Sox division than a tem led by Beltran, Patterson, Lee, Ramirez, Wood, Prior, Zambrano? We dont' ahve Houston & St Louis to contend with.

ON a related note, I fully expect the Cards to keep Renteria. They look like they'll make the WS (and IMO they'll win it), so they'll have a nice chunk of additional change to keephim. They also have players with a history of deferring $$$ to make sure the team can put the best group onthe field, so if necessary, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, etc might also redo their deals

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 12:40 PM
By the way - if KW can sell it to JR that Beltran's a good investment, I think he can sell it to Beltran that the Sox are a contender. Not really all that hard given how they were playing with Maggs & Frank healthy, or even with Maggs out and Garcia added. Add Beltran to team #2 - nice. Add Garcia to team #1 (swapping Maggs for Baltran) - equally nice.

Justafan
10-15-2004, 12:45 PM
why would he choose the Sox for similar money?

Who said he would? I never mentioned the Sox as a player for Beltran. I said he would not resign with the Astros.

Lip Man 1
10-15-2004, 01:20 PM
As far as if Scott Boras would negotiate with the Sox for Carlos Beltran the answer is yes he would....however the Sox would have to make the best offer to his client.

Head and shoulders above everyone else. Boras will not cut the Sox any breaks nor give them any advantages because of what has happened in the past between himself and the owner.

Given that Beltran may be the best free agent out there this off season I just can't see the Sox topping everybody else, they don't work that way, so barring something totally unforseen, I highly doubt they will acquire his considerable talents.

Lip

santo=dorf
10-15-2004, 01:21 PM
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-041014nlcsbrite,1,2505545.story?coll=cs-home-headlines


"Beltran Shows Interest In Cubs."

Nuff said.
Wasn't the Tribune quoting Ozzie Guillen last year as saying "[I-Rod] wants to play for the Cubs?"

They are just teasing their fans. If you were in Beltran's position, would you say "Chicago is cool, but I don't want to play there?" Of course not. You don't want to come across like a negative guy, and it won't help you with leveraging a good deal with a team if the team knows that you don't want to play elsewhere.

I think Carl Pavano will get less money if it is true that he said he doesn't want to play in New York.

santo=dorf
10-15-2004, 01:23 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Beltran will stay in Houston?
Beltran has not hit well at Minute Maid Park, and I don't think he likes the idea of playing CF 81 games a year where there is a hill and a flagpole.

Justafan
10-15-2004, 01:24 PM
Wasn't the Tribune quoting Ozzie Guillen last year as saying "[I-Rod] wants to play for the Cubs?"

They are just teasing their fans. If you were in Beltran's position, would you say "Chicago is cool, but I don't want to play there?" Of course not. You don't want to come across like a negative guy, and it won't help you with leveraging a good deal with a team if the team knows that you don't want to play elsewhere.

I think Carl Pavano will get less money if it is true that he said he doesn't want to play in New York.
I don't have a problem with his answer to the question, I have a problem about answering it just before a must win game. If he likes the Cubs, fine, he can sign with them. Just don't talk about it until your season is over.

Randar68
10-15-2004, 01:34 PM
It is estimated right now with 21 players signed/after arbitration the payroll will be close to @62MM.

How much more new money will the club have to spend on players with the new seats behind home, new tv deal, possible new radio deal ect.? That is the question. It is not like they have to pay to fix the park, Cell One is doing that.

If JR didn't notice, if the team wins....fans show up....this year was another example.

Spend the money on players early and build up the season tix base. That is my prescription.
Well said. In addition to this, I think people are not recognizing how the long-term picture equates...

Konerko and CLee are nearing the ends of their deals. Frank has 2 years left IIRC at a reasonable price if he can stay healthy. Almost all of the position-players with any significant $$$'s on their contracts are nearing the end of their deals. Beltran is going to sign a 5-6 year deal, probably.

Can't you make a case for signing Beltran and building a team around Beltran and pitching? Pitching and defense up the middle? I think an outfield of Beltran/Rowand/Clee is solid and that affords the team the ability to trade CLee or some of the OF prospects to fill other needs.

I don't know. Given the situation, pursuing Carlos Beltran almost makes too much sense. More than ARod... The premier FA's last year signed for ~14 million a year. I don't know what CB will get, but I doubt it is more than 15-16....

This is all speculative, but it's a lot better than moping around, at least IMO...

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 03:13 PM
As far as if Scott Boras would negotiate with the Sox for Carlos Beltran the answer is yes he would....however the Sox would have to make the best offer to his client.

Head and shoulders above everyone else. Boras will not cut the Sox any breaks nor give them any advantages because of what has happened in the past between himself and the owner.

Given that Beltran may be the best free agent out there this off season I just can't see the Sox topping everybody else, they don't work that way, so barring something totally unforseen, I highly doubt they will acquire his considerable talents.

Lip
Lip - are you saying that if the Sox are say 500k better that Boras would send Beltran to another team? I highly doubt that.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 03:18 PM
Well said. In addition to this, I think people are not recognizing how the long-term picture equates...

Konerko and CLee are nearing the ends of their deals. Frank has 2 years left IIRC at a reasonable price if he can stay healthy. Almost all of the position-players with any significant $$$'s on their contracts are nearing the end of their deals. Beltran is going to sign a 5-6 year deal, probably.

Can't you make a case for signing Beltran and building a team around Beltran and pitching? Pitching and defense up the middle? I think an outfield of Beltran/Rowand/Clee is solid and that affords the team the ability to trade CLee or some of the OF prospects to fill other needs.

I don't know. Given the situation, pursuing Carlos Beltran almost makes too much sense. More than ARod... The premier FA's last year signed for ~14 million a year. I don't know what CB will get, but I doubt it is more than 15-16....

This is all speculative, but it's a lot better than moping around, at least IMO...Exactly. In case you haven't done this already Kenny, here's the simple pitch to JR:

Sign Beltran, generate some enthusiasm among the fan base, pump up season tix.
Scenario #1: If the team does well, attendance continues to be strong and you're in good shape. After the season, you can use the $$$ from Konerko to either continue to upgrade, or you resign Paulie.

Scenario #2: The team does not do well, or attendance doesn't jump commensurately with the team's performance (unlikely). You can deal Paulie at midseason, or you can deal Lee (with only 1-1.5 years left on his deal, he'll be attractive). After the season, you can let one or all of Lee, Konerko, Frank, Shingo go via trade, FA, or team option. You might lose a little bit this year, but likely not a lot and you're not tied down salry-wise in 06.

Under scenario #2, you rebuild around solid vets: Buehrle, Garcia, Beltran, Rowand, Uribe and youth: Sweeney, Anderson, Fields, BMac, Gio, etc.

As Randar put it - it almost makes too much sense.

TwinsGeek
10-15-2004, 03:19 PM
Beltran is practically preordained to end up a Yankee for 2005.

- The Yankees have obviously been waiting for him - they've had a hole in CF that they've plugged with one year guys for two years while they waited for his free agency.
- The only team they can't straight outbid is the Red Sox, and they already have Damon.
- The evil empire will swoop in with a monster offer for the elite team in baseball as well as the opportunity to play on baseball's biggest stage and patrol the same CF as Dimaggio and Mantle.

I hate the Yanks all to hell, but there is just NO WAY they don't end up with Beltran. This is going to be a suspensful as seeing who Giambi would sign with.

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 03:24 PM
Exactly. In case you haven't done this already Kenny, here's the simple pitch to JR:

Sign Beltran, generate some enthusiasm among the fan base, pump up season tix.
Scenario #1: If the team does well, attendance continues to be strong and you're in good shape. After the season, you can use the $$$ from Konerko to either continue to upgrade, or you resign Paulie.

Scenario #2: The team does not do well, or attendance doesn't jump commensurately with the team's performance (unlikely). You can deal Paulie at midseason, or you can deal Lee (with only 1-1.5 years left on his deal, he'll be attractive). After the season, you can let one or all of Lee, Konerko, Frank, Shingo go via trade, FA, or team option. You might lose a little bit this year, but likely not a lot and you're not tied down salry-wise in 06.

Under scenario #2, you rebuild around solid vets: Buehrle, Garcia, Beltran, Rowand, Uribe and youth: Sweeney, Anderson, Fields, BMac, Gio, etc.

As Randar put it - it almost makes too much sense.Unfortunately, Scenario #1 doesn't add up. Let's say they sign Beltran for $15M. And let's estimate that they net an average of $30 profit (ticket, parking, concessions, etc.) from every person through the gates. They'd have to draw an extra half-million fans just to pay for Beltran. I doubt it very much.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 03:54 PM
Unfortunately, Scenario #1 doesn't add up. Let's say they sign Beltran for $15M. And let's estimate that they net an average of $30 profit (ticket, parking, concessions, etc.) from every person through the gates. They'd have to draw an extra half-million fans just to pay for Beltran. I doubt it very much.
I don't think it's that farfetched at all.

1) You generate some serious buzz, and earlier than the Colon deal had a chance to (assuming you move on Beltran realtively early in the FA period). Every season ticket counts as 82 "fans", so a 3000 increase in season tix equates to 246000 "fans"

2) Take the team we had, add in Beltran and Frank. I think that team plays like the team we had in the first half of 04. That'll bump attendance right there (and in the first half, we were on pace for a 15% increase in attendance over 2003, IIRC). Now factor in playoff revenues, etc.

3) Then you factor in potential savings from payroll in the 2d half if things dont' pan out by trading Konerko and/or Lee.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect Beltran+any other significant guys, but I do think that Beltran alone is a viable option without committing to too much financial risk.

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 03:59 PM
I don't think it's reasonable to expect Beltran+any other significant guys, but I do think that Beltran alone is a viable option without committing to too much financial risk.And that's the problem.

Beltran + current pitching staff = 2nd place again.

The hype will wear off pretty quickly when they're no better than this year.

Palehose13
10-15-2004, 04:05 PM
Trust me not many people dislike the Cubs more than I do. BUT they play in a sold out stadium every day, get great exposure and have one of the larger payrolls in the game.

I think you took my quote out of context anyway. I was saying teams with the inside track will be teams with the best chance to win it all or teams usually in the playoffs. (it is usually the same core of teams). The Cubs were listed as a suitor of Beltran based on recent newspaper articles here in Chicago.
I read it as those were the four qualities he was looking for in a team...a combo of all four, not some of them. Sorry for any misunderstanding.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 04:09 PM
And that's the problem.

Beltran + current pitching staff = 2nd place again.

The hype will wear off pretty quickly when they're no better than this year.
The team was doing pretty well with arguably a worse pitching staff in the first half (not much Garcia, Loaiza instead of Contreras), and that was with Frank but no Maggs for a chunk.

Also, in the 2d half, scoring was more of a problem than pitching (at least until late August when the team was out of it).

I stopped counting, but the team lost something like 15 1-run games in the 2d half. Add Frank & Beltran and that should be at least 10 wins, which would have put them in first. Now add in having Garcia & Contreras instead of Loaiza & Schoenweis for April, May and I think you have a team that plays a lot more like the team of the first half, which was one of the tops in baseball.

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 04:23 PM
The team was doing pretty well with arguably a worse pitching staff in the first half (not much Garcia, Loaiza instead of Contreras), and that was with Frank but no Maggs for a chunk.

Also, in the 2d half, scoring was more of a problem than pitching (at least until late August when the team was out of it).

I stopped counting, but the team lost something like 15 1-run games in the 2d half. Add Frank & Beltran and that should be at least 10 wins, which would have put them in first. Now add in having Garcia & Contreras instead of Loaiza & Schoenweis for April, May and I think you have a team that plays a lot more like the team of the first half, which was one of the tops in baseball.Actually, Loaiza and Schoeneweis were solid in April, and not too bad in May, so I don't think you can say the pitching RESULTS were better toward the end of the year. In fact, they were probably the best two pitchers on the staff in those early months. And without some real pitching help they're giving up a game every fifth day.

Beltran in CF + Diaz pitching = no net gain

Randar68
10-15-2004, 04:27 PM
Beltran in CF + Diaz pitching = no net gain
It's not the perfect solution, but "no net gain" is anything but accurate considering Frank and Maggs missed over 162 combined games.

Diaz of next year and Beltran in CF with his range and the added OF defense gained by having Rowand in a more natural position is a HUGE upgrade.

No, signing Beltran WOULD NOT address the 5th starter spot, obviously. However, a 40/40 bat with a .380+ OBP in the heart of your order and Gold Glove CF defense makes a HUGE gain.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 04:32 PM
Actually, Loaiza and Schoeneweis were solid in April, and not too bad in May, so I don't think you can say the pitching RESULTS were better toward the end of the year. In fact, they were probably the best two pitchers on the staff in those early months. And without some real pitching help they're giving up a game every fifth day.

Beltran in CF + Diaz pitching = no net gain
I'd agree, as long as that "net gain" is compared to the team we had in the first half of last year. For no other reason than you still ahve Grilli, Diaz, and everyone else that we pitched in the 2d half, so the pitching stays the same and the offense gets a lot better with Beltran isntead of Borchard/Timo/Gload.

Now add Frank back in, and the team's a ton better.

Realistically, you're better off than you were at the beginning of '04.

You lose Loaiza & Shoney and gain Garcia & Contreras (net upgrade). You lose Maggs and gain Beltran (wash or upgrade given that Carlos gives the team better balance than Maggs did). You lose Valentin and gain Harris/Uribe.

The team we had in 04 was one of the best until it got hit by injury. If you need to, go get a veteran #4 or 5 starter ala Shoney (pre-his injury). That's not too expensive, and your'e not giving away every 5th day.

santo=dorf
10-15-2004, 04:37 PM
Beltran is practically preordained to end up a Yankee for 2005.

- The Yankees have obviously been waiting for him - they've had a hole in CF that they've plugged with one year guys for two years while they waited for his free agency.
- The only team they can't straight outbid is the Red Sox, and they already have Damon.
- The evil empire will swoop in with a monster offer for the elite team in baseball as well as the opportunity to play on baseball's biggest stage and patrol the same CF as Dimaggio and Mantle.

I hate the Yanks all to hell, but there is just NO WAY they don't end up with Beltran. This is going to be a suspensful as seeing who Giambi would sign with.
So where does Bernie go, DH?
Then Giambi HAS to play first. Is he healthy enough?
Can the Yankees afford to have either Bernie or Giambi sit on the bench along with Lofton?
The Yankees top priority is pitching. (from the New York post.)
And who says Beltran is just going to play for the highest bidder? :dunno:

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 04:40 PM
I'd agree, as long as that "net gain" is compared to the team we had in the first half of last year. For no other reason than you still ahve Grilli, Diaz, and everyone else that we pitched in the 2d half, so the pitching stays the same and the offense gets a lot better with Beltran isntead of Borchard/Timo/Gload.

Now add Frank back in, and the team's a ton better.

Realistically, you're better off than you were at the beginning of '04.

You lose Loaiza & Shoney and gain Garcia & Contreras (net upgrade). You lose Maggs and gain Beltran (wash or upgrade given that Carlos gives the team better balance than Maggs did). You lose Valentin and gain Harris/Uribe.

The team we had in 04 was one of the best until it got hit by injury. If you need to, go get a veteran #4 or 5 starter ala Shoney (pre-his injury). That's not too expensive, and your'e not giving away every 5th day.I guess this comes down to philosophy. I prefer building a team around pitching. It seems to me we tried the other way, and IMO, what you're proposing is more of the same. For what they'd pay Beltran they could sign a stud starter (Pavano or whoever else you like) plus one and probably two solid relievers. I think they'd be better going for the pitching.

TwinsGeek
10-15-2004, 04:48 PM
So where does Bernie go, DH?
Then Giambi HAS to play first. Is he healthy enough?
Can the Yankees afford to have either Bernie or Giambi sit on the bench along with Lofton?
The Yankees top priority is pitching. (from the New York post.)
And who says Beltran is just going to play for the highest bidder? :dunno:
- Bernie likely goes to DH, and Giambi at first. That's not ideal, but one way or the other, Bernie's not going to be in CF next year. He just doesn't have the range anymore. And Lofton just had a one year deal. He might make sense for the Sox, actually.l

- Yes, the Yankee's top priority is pitching, but they won't miss out on a gem like Beltran. It's not like George is going to sweat adding another $20M to the payroll. He can certainly do both.

- It might be nice if Beltran didn't just choose the highest bidder, but the Yankees offer won't be just a little higher. You're talking a couple of million dollars more per year and at possibly a couple more guaranteed years at the end of the contract, too. All told, I bet the guarantee at least $25 million more than anyone else.

I hate it as much as anyone, but I think the chances he signs with New York are about 90%. Just my two cents.

santo=dorf
10-15-2004, 05:01 PM
Twinsgeek,

Lofton signed a two-year deal that pays him $3.1 million per.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 05:03 PM
I guess this comes down to philosophy. I prefer building a team around pitching. It seems to me we tried the other way, and IMO, what you're proposing is more of the same. For what they'd pay Beltran they could sign a stud starter (Pavano or whoever else you like) plus one and probably two solid relievers. I think they'd be better going for the pitching.
I think rational people can differ, but IMO they haven't tried what's being proposed with the Beltran acquisition.

1) A more balanced, consistent O with greatly improved speed
2) Much better D
3) No Manuel dragging things down

I'd liken a team with Beltran and some cheap vet 4th/5th starter to the 2003 team, except you have more balance & speed and the addition via subtraction at manager.

While I love building around pitching, I like the Beltran move because I think one important factor for this team is buzz. Beltran creates a lot of buzz as well as improving the team. Much as I thought this year, given the team's pending payroll flexibility, I think a move to try and win something now is good. That then either lets you raise (or maintain) a high payroll, or lets you realistically point to a solid core and talk about retooling, not rebuilding in a year.

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 05:51 PM
I think rational people can differ, but IMO they haven't tried what's being proposed with the Beltran acquisition.

1) A more balanced, consistent O with greatly improved speed
2) Much better D
3) No Manuel dragging things down

I'd liken a team with Beltran and some cheap vet 4th/5th starter to the 2003 team, except you have more balance & speed and the addition via subtraction at manager.

While I love building around pitching, I like the Beltran move because I think one important factor for this team is buzz. Beltran creates a lot of buzz as well as improving the team. Much as I thought this year, given the team's pending payroll flexibility, I think a move to try and win something now is good. That then either lets you raise (or maintain) a high payroll, or lets you realistically point to a solid core and talk about retooling, not rebuilding in a year.The 2003 team got lucky with 21 wins from Loaiza. Add in Colon's 16 and Buehrle's 14 and you have 51 from the top three. Do you think any three current Sox pitchers can win 51? With the current bullpen? I don't. And without that, Beltran and his $15M will be wasted.

As much as I'd like to have the offensive punch that Beltran has to offer, I see lack of pitching depth as a bigger problem, and I'd much prefer to spend the $15M on that. A buzz is nice, but it wears off pretty quick if they don't win. Besides, there are other ways to get a buzz.:gulp:

nitetrain8601
10-15-2004, 06:14 PM
I think Beltran would make a world of difference. We still would need a 5th starter, but this team is not that far off. Signing him would make too much sense. So much sense, I don't see it happening.

Lip Man 1
10-15-2004, 06:24 PM
Flight:

We'll have to see if the Sox in fact do make an offer 500k higher then another team first won't we?

But I don't think that's a big enough gap to convince him to sign in Chicago. Example...let's say the Sox are 500k higher then the Yankees...or the Cardinals...or the Red Sox...or (shudder) the Cubs.

Do you honestly thinks he sign with the White Sox?

Now five million higher (just to toss out a figure)...that's a different story. That kind of difference makes up for a lot of shortcomings with the organization.

But I don't think it'll even come down to that.

Lip

Ol' No. 2
10-15-2004, 06:29 PM
Flight:

We'll have to see if the Sox in fact do make an offer 500k higher then another team first won't we?

But I don't think that's a big enough gap to convince him to sign in Chicago. Example...let's say the Sox are 500k higher then the Yankees...or the Cardinals...or the Red Sox...or (shudder) the Cubs.

Do you honestly thinks he sign with the White Sox?

Now five million higher (just to toss out a figure)...that's a different story. That kind of difference makes up for a lot of shortcomings with the organization.

But I don't think it'll even come down to that.

LipIt's unlikely, but you never know. If he signs with the Yankers, he's just another All-Star. If he signs with the Sox, he's the BIG DOG. Some guys get off on that. So on the 1% chance the Sox do make him a competitive offer, there's maybe a 10% chance he accepts it. I can get better odds than that in Las Vegas, and there I get free :gulp:.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 10:43 PM
The 2003 team got lucky with 21 wins from Loaiza. Add in Colon's 16 and Buehrle's 14 and you have 51 from the top three. Do you think any three current Sox pitchers can win 51? With the current bullpen? I don't. And without that, Beltran and his $15M will be wasted.

As much as I'd like to have the offensive punch that Beltran has to offer, I see lack of pitching depth as a bigger problem, and I'd much prefer to spend the $15M on that. A buzz is nice, but it wears off pretty quick if they don't win. Besides, there are other ways to get a buzz.:gulp:
I'm not talking about 2003, I'm talking about first half 2004. Ozzie made a difference there. That same team, albiet with a more balanced O and slightly better pitching can be had in '05 if you add Beltran.

That team was within a game or 2 of the best AL record prior to the injuries. Would it have lasted? No one knows, but I've yet to see a rational argument why it wouldn't have.

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 10:46 PM
Flight:

We'll have to see if the Sox in fact do make an offer 500k higher then another team first won't we?

But I don't think that's a big enough gap to convince him to sign in Chicago. Example...let's say the Sox are 500k higher then the Yankees...or the Cardinals...or the Red Sox...or (shudder) the Cubs.

Do you honestly thinks he sign with the White Sox?

Now five million higher (just to toss out a figure)...that's a different story. That kind of difference makes up for a lot of shortcomings with the organization.

But I don't think it'll even come down to that.

Lip
First off - Cardinals are highly unlikely to even come close, if they have the $$$ they'll just resign Renteria. So Yanks, Cubs, Sox.

If the Sox are marginally higher, and have Ozzie, a strongly Latin clubhouse (which supposedly makes a difference for Latin guys), can let him DH to take time off, he can be "the man", and it's a big city? I think all of those could make him take the Sox over the contenders.

The "Sox suck" factor is way overblown IMO, especially here. Cubs suck too. In fact, everyone mostly sucks that can sign big $$$ FAs with the exception of NY & Boston.

dcb33
10-15-2004, 10:50 PM
I'm not talking about 2003, I'm talking about first half 2004. Ozzie made a difference there. That same team, albiet with a more balanced O and slightly better pitching can be had in '05 if you add Beltran.

That team was within a game or 2 of the best AL record prior to the injuries. Would it have lasted? No one knows, but I've yet to see a rational argument why it wouldn't have.It wouldn't have lasted because both Uribe and Harris had a ridiculous first half. Remember when Uribe was in the Top 5 in the AL in terms of BA and 'Peapod' was hitting in the .320's? No way were those two going to keep that up.
Also, another reason we got off to such a fast start was because of the starting pitching we got. IIRC, Buehrle, Elo, Garland, and Schoeny all hadERA's under 4 well into May, and there was no way all 4 of those guys were going to put up those numbers over the course of an entire season. I doubt the Sox would've crashed the way they did without injuries to Maggs and Frank, but I also don't think they would've been able to sustain the level of play they had at the beginning of the year. They overachieved until Interleague Play started

Flight #24
10-15-2004, 10:59 PM
It wouldn't have lasted because both Uribe and Harris had a ridiculous first half. Remember when Uribe was in the Top 5 in the AL in terms of BA and 'Peapod' was hitting in the .320's? No way were those two going to keep that up.
Also, another reason we got off to such a fast start was because of the starting pitching we got. IIRC, Buehrle, Elo, Garland, and Schoeny all hadERA's under 4 well into May, and there was no way all 4 of those guys were going to put up those numbers over the course of an entire season. I doubt the Sox would've crashed the way they did without injuries to Maggs and Frank, but I also don't think they would've been able to sustain the level of play they had at the beginning of the year. They overachieved until Interleague Play started
Garcia will pitch better than ELo did early. Contreras can pitch like Shoney.

cornball
10-15-2004, 11:17 PM
While a serious long shot for Beltran, let suppose the Sox are able to sign him.

If that is the case, JR can't stop there. He has to gamble.

First, off if he stops there the team will not win in the playoffs, if he makes it at all.

Second, in order to sign Beltran, he would have to promise to go for it, especially after the ARod debacle.

Third, the gamble is for JR to believe this is the year. To get Beltran, a starter, a shortstop and a stopper. Visquel, O.Perez, Beneitez are serious possiblities, while trading PK (most likely) or CLee for a true leadoff man and more bullpen help. I think management believes in the top 4 starters.

JR has to go all the way or it will not work. He needs to increase the season tix, with these moves he will increase the season tix bas to about 17,000 I would guess and make the playoffs. Thus make money. Estimated payroll of 85MM

I know should be in teal.

Lip Man 1
10-16-2004, 02:02 PM
Flight:

Those teams were just random example. I have no idea if any of them would be interested. What you can rely on is that at least at first a number of teams will be interested.

Over the years I've had the chance to meet and speak with a number of players about a number of topics. I've found that in general, (please note that) players are interested in two things....

1. Financial compensation
2. The chance to get a Series ring

Those usually determine where a player goes, all other things being equal. You have to admit (again in general) that the Sox organization as currently constituted seems to fall behind other clubs in these two categories.

We'll see...

Lip

Ol' No. 2
10-16-2004, 02:27 PM
I'm not talking about 2003, I'm talking about first half 2004. Ozzie made a difference there. That same team, albiet with a more balanced O and slightly better pitching can be had in '05 if you add Beltran.

That team was within a game or 2 of the best AL record prior to the injuries. Would it have lasted? No one knows, but I've yet to see a rational argument why it wouldn't have.The rational argument is that a lot of players had been hot in April and May and dropped off fast afterward. Schoeneweis and Loaiza were almost unbeatable and Uribe looked like an All-Star candidate. It didn't last long. Had the Sox gotten Beltran after Maggs and Frank went down, how big a difference would it have made and would it have been enough? Who knows? I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. I'm not convinced Beltran would have made enough of a difference. The Sox finished the year about the middle of the AL in offense, but 11th in pitching. Some of that is certainly due to pitching in Coors East, but I still see a team that is in need of pitching help more than offense.

Project the current starters:
Buehrle: 16 wins
Garcia: 18 wins
Contreras: 14 wins (could be a lot more, could be a lot less)
Garland: 12 wins
total: 60 wins

Some will win more than what I've projected, some less, but the total is likely to be about 60. They need 70-75. There's no way they can count on the additional 10-15 wins they need from anyone they currently have. They need to add a pitcher that's capable of winning 15 games. For what they'd pay Beltran, they could get a stud starter and at least one and perhaps two solid relievers. I'd still opt for the pitching.

Ol' No. 2
10-16-2004, 02:34 PM
While a serious long shot for Beltran, let suppose the Sox are able to sign him.

If that is the case, JR can't stop there. He has to gamble.

First, off if he stops there the team will not win in the playoffs, if he makes it at all.

Second, in order to sign Beltran, he would have to promise to go for it, especially after the ARod debacle.

Third, the gamble is for JR to believe this is the year. To get Beltran, a starter, a shortstop and a stopper. Visquel, O.Perez, Beneitez are serious possiblities, while trading PK (most likely) or CLee for a true leadoff man and more bullpen help. I think management believes in the top 4 starters.

JR has to go all the way or it will not work. He needs to increase the season tix, with these moves he will increase the season tix bas to about 17,000 I would guess and make the playoffs. Thus make money. Estimated payroll of 85MM

I know should be in teal.There are no colors yet invented to decribe the possibility of increasing the season ticket base to 17,000 in one year. The current number is a closely guarded secret, but almost certainly under 10,000 and probably closer to 7-8,000. The season ticket base is pretty steady and just isn't that easily changed. Even after winning the division in 2000 and getting David Wells in 2001 (this created a BIG buzz, if you'll recall), the season ticket base didn't change that much.

Flight #24
10-16-2004, 04:26 PM
There are no colors yet invented to decribe the possibility of increasing the season ticket base to 17,000 in one year. The current number is a closely guarded secret, but almost certainly under 10,000 and probably closer to 7-8,000. The season ticket base is pretty steady and just isn't that easily changed. Even after winning the division in 2000 and getting David Wells in 2001 (this created a BIG buzz, if you'll recall), the season ticket base didn't change that much.
IIRC, the Wells deal was made relatively close to ST, no? Doing something in Nov-Dec would hav a much bigger bump to season ticket sales, IMO.

Flight #24
10-16-2004, 04:27 PM
The rational argument is that a lot of players had been hot in April and May and dropped off fast afterward. Schoeneweis and Loaiza were almost unbeatable and Uribe looked like an All-Star candidate. It didn't last long. Had the Sox gotten Beltran after Maggs and Frank went down, how big a difference would it have made and would it have been enough? Who knows? I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. I'm not convinced Beltran would have made enough of a difference. The Sox finished the year about the middle of the AL in offense, but 11th in pitching. Some of that is certainly due to pitching in Coors East, but I still see a team that is in need of pitching help more than offense.

Project the current starters:
Buehrle: 16 wins
Garcia: 18 wins
Contreras: 14 wins (could be a lot more, could be a lot less)
Garland: 12 wins
total: 60 wins

Some will win more than what I've projected, some less, but the total is likely to be about 60. They need 70-75. There's no way they can count on the additional 10-15 wins they need from anyone they currently have. They need to add a pitcher that's capable of winning 15 games. For what they'd pay Beltran, they could get a stud starter and at least one and perhaps two solid relievers. I'd still opt for the pitching.Backed by an O that adds Beltran and gets back Frank, I'd think you can easily get an average of 1-2 more wins from the 4 SPs, dropping your total needed from the 5th starter to 5-10 (to reach the 70-75), which is highly doable.

cornball
10-16-2004, 05:37 PM
There are no colors yet invented to decribe the possibility of increasing the season ticket base to 17,000 in one year. The current number is a closely guarded secret, but almost certainly under 10,000 and probably closer to 7-8,000. The season ticket base is pretty steady and just isn't that easily changed. Even after winning the division in 2000 and getting David Wells in 2001 (this created a BIG buzz, if you'll recall), the season ticket base didn't change that much.
I would venture to guess the season tix base to be @8-9,000 right now. The average in the park per home game was about 24,000 this year. I believe before the strike the base was up in the mid to upper teens, because everyone thought the Sox had a legit shot to win it all.

Sports have changed over the years. People win come out in droves around here, if you win or if they think you will win. I know it is asking alot, to make 3-4 huge moves and highly doubtful, but if the buzz is big enough they will come. The 2001 team had the same core group to draw fans as the 2004 addition. A David Well will not create the buzz of a Beltran and others to complete the package.

To double the season tix, in one year, I agree almost impossible. The average attendance could raise to over 30,000 with these move in my opinion.

JR has to gamble if he wants to win and believe the people will show up. Look at the Blackhawks, lost most of their fan base because of losing, look at the attendance at Soldier Field at the end of the DW era, the Bulls attendance at games is way down....except JR scammed everyone for a few years before MJ retired. This team needs a big splash!!! Thats all I am saying. (sorry for the length)

Gosox1917
10-16-2004, 09:12 PM
Beltran has 6...no wait...7 homeruns in this postseason alone. If the Sox get some good pitchers to trade for Konerko, then I think Beltran on the Southside would put us over the top considering what he did for Houston. That's why I "worship" him.

dcb33
10-16-2004, 09:27 PM
Beltran has 6...no wait...7 homeruns in this postseason alone. If the Sox get some good pitchers to trade for Konerko, then I think Beltran on the Southside would put us over the top considering what he did for Houston. That's why I "worship" him.
There's no doubt Beltran would be a great addition to the team, but he's undoubtedly going to command top dollar this offseason, and I'm sure whatever he makes will be more than what we paid Maggs this year.
My concern is that if we do end up signing him, do the Sox run the risk of shooting themselves in the foot much like the Texas Rangers did with A-Rod by taking on a contract that is more of a burden than a blessing.

Flight #24
10-16-2004, 09:40 PM
Over the years I've had the chance to meet and speak with a number of players about a number of topics. I've found that in general, (please note that) players are interested in two things....

1. Financial compensation
2. The chance to get a Series ring


Maybe that's why we differ on this: because we have different views of the Sox. You view them as never really making a serious effort to be a contender, I view them as always being in the hunt and always being pretty close, but falling short. The latter view would indicate that adding a superstar player like Beltran could make the difference.

As for teams that would fit your criteria, realisticaly, the only 2 that can make a more serious claim than the Sox (IMO) are NY, Boston & (maybe) LA. Other teams either can't even play in the financial realm we're talking about (St. Louis, Minnesota, San Francisco, Oakland), don't really have any better history of "success" than the Sox do (Texas, Cubs, Baltimore), or won't be looking for a big money player at that position (Anaheim). The potential outlier is Houston just becuase he's there now, and they could conceivably see enough of a boost from the playoff run and their end of season success to make ownership take the plunge and resign him.

But if he leaves Houston, I really don't see anyone outside of NY having a significantly better shot at him than the Sox (assuming the team is interested and will pay the going rate - I don't see him taking a discount to play here).

Lip Man 1
10-16-2004, 10:29 PM
Flight:

Again we'll have to see. I'd like to see Beltran with the Sox, he's an incredibly talented player, I just think the odds are very long on it happening.

Lip

Ol' No. 2
10-17-2004, 03:49 AM
Backed by an O that adds Beltran and gets back Frank, I'd think you can easily get an average of 1-2 more wins from the 4 SPs, dropping your total needed from the 5th starter to 5-10 (to reach the 70-75), which is highly doable.Even for a player like Beltran, adding 8 more wins is a lot. While I like the 38 HR and the 100+ RBI, this is a guy who hit .267 this year and his SLG was about the same as Aaron Rowand. Maybe 4 wins.

There's another consideration, and that's by signing Beltran they're back to having all their financial eggs in one basket. He gets hurt and they're screwed. Spending the same money on 2 or 3 players makes you less vulnerable to injuries.