PDA

View Full Version : A Look into the Numbers


The Wimperoo
10-11-2004, 10:28 PM
I don't know if anyone has done this yet, I looked back and hadn't seen any analysis on this.

If you look at the Runs Created statistic, which is commonly known as one of the best indicators of the impact of a player. For those that don't know, Runs Created is OBPxTotal Bases. You can actually see the huge impact that Frank and Maggs have on this team.

The White Sox scored 865 runs this season and gave up 831. An average of 5.3 r/g. If you look at the career statistics for Frank and Maggs you will see that Frank has a career RC/Season of 111, and Maggs has a career 91 RC/season. That is 212 runs created for the average season when you combine Frank and Maggs.

Now look at Timo, Gload, Everett, and Borchard. Respectively their RC this season were 38, 41, 23, and 13. That adds up to 115. A difference between Frank and Maggs and those 4 are 97 runs created. While it is not right to say that you can just add those 97 runs to the total amount for the season you can probably say that it would be closer to 50-55 extra runs scored for the season.

Those 55 or so runs would make a big difference in the record. The White Sox were 40-38 in games with a run differential of 1 or 2. I guess it is kind of fun, or maybe morbid to look back at this season and think what might have been had we been at full strength.

cornball
10-11-2004, 10:56 PM
Nice post wimpy.

GiveMeSox
10-11-2004, 10:57 PM
Great work. See this is why us sox fans take pride in our extrmme knowledge of fandom and our team. Unlike a ceartain fan group 8 miles to the north.. Long live the supreme knowleadge, passion, and insight of sox fans.

Tragg
10-11-2004, 11:12 PM
If you look at the Runs Created statistic, which is commonly known as one of the best indicators of the impact of a player. For those that don't know, Runs Created is OBPxTotal Bases. You can actually see the huge impact that Frank and Maggs have on this team.
I have a question re the "Runs Created" Stat.

If OBP is defined as Total Bases/Total at bats and RC is Total bases times OBP, then Runs created is really Total Bases squared/Total at bats. Is there some mathematical or statistical validation as to why total bases should be squared to somehow yield runs created?

benjamin
10-12-2004, 12:11 AM
Great work. See this is why us sox fans take pride in our extrmme knowledge of fandom and our team. Unlike a ceartain fan group 8 miles to the north.. Long live the supreme knowleadge, passion, and insight of sox fans.*We* Sox fans... not us.

Just doing my part to continue to raise the knowledge and insight of the group... :D:

benjamin
10-12-2004, 12:29 AM
I have a question re the "Runs Created" Stat.

If OBP is defined as Total Bases/Total at bats and RC is Total bases times OBP, then Runs created is really Total Bases squared/Total at bats. Is there some mathematical or statistical validation as to why total bases should be squared to somehow yield runs created?Total bases are not used to calculate On-base percentage.

Total bases are used to calculate Slugging Percentage (TB divided by at bats)

OBP is calculated by taking total times reaching base (Hits, walks, hit by pitch) and dividing that by total plate appearances (at bats, walks, hit by pitch, sacrifices) to literally give the percentage of times the batter reaches base per time at the plate.

By multiplying total bases by OBP, you are getting a stat similar to the OPS (OBP plus Slugging Percentage) which is often used as a way to compare players.

Further, the RC formula of TB x OBP is actually the simplest form of the equation, as there are far more complicated measures that take into account stolen bases, etc., but the difference in the outcomes is minimal enough that the rough equation of TB x OBP generally is pretty damn close.

So, in actuality, the Total bases are not squared in the RC formula. It is simply combining a players ability to get on base (OBP) with his ability to hit for power (Total Bases), which when you think about it are what really matters when it comes to creating runs. Create runs by getting on base, or create them by hitting for power, or create many runs by being able to do both.

Tragg
10-12-2004, 01:26 AM
Total bases are not used to calculate On-base percentage.

Total bases are used to calculate Slugging Percentage (TB divided by at bats)

OBP is calculated by taking total times reaching base (Hits, walks, hit by pitch) and dividing that by total plate appearances (at bats, walks, hit by pitch, sacrifices) to literally give the percentage of times the batter reaches base per time at the plate.

By multiplying total bases by OBP, you are getting a stat similar to the OPS (OBP plus Slugging Percentage) which is often used as a way to compare players.

Further, the RC formula of TB x OBP is actually the simplest form of the equation, as there are far more complicated measures that take into account stolen bases, etc., but the difference in the outcomes is minimal enough that the rough equation of TB x OBP generally is pretty damn close.

So, in actuality, the Total bases are not squared in the RC formula. It is simply combining a players ability to get on base (OBP) with his ability to hit for power (Total Bases), which when you think about it are what really matters when it comes to creating runs. Create runs by getting on base, or create them by hitting for power, or create many runs by being able to do both. You're right- my goof- had a brain fog; was typing OBP and thinking of the SP formula. Thanks for correcting me

SSN721
10-12-2004, 09:30 AM
Nice work, it definitely shows their importance. I thought we still scored quite a few runs in the second half and still blame poor pitching the most for the decline of our team. It looks like with Frank and Maggs thoguh we could have overcome some of that bad pitching at least with even more runs.

Ol' No. 2
10-12-2004, 10:00 AM
If you look up the VORPr for Thomas and Ordonez and multiply it by the games missed, you get pretty much the same number...about 90 runs lost with them out of the lineup, which would put them ahead of Boston for first in MLB in runs scored. If you apply Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem, you can estimate that those extra runs would translate into 9-10 extra wins. How far back did the Sox finish???

Also, these estimates consider only direct contribution of the offensive production. They don't account for the impact of having these guys in the lineup on the players around them.

MrKinsella
10-13-2004, 08:48 AM
what you guys fail to relize is that Wimpy is looking at Career Statistics as a way to evaluate the value of a brittle and over the hill slugger and a post injury question mark. I understand the value of statistics as the ultimate way to evaluate talent, ie Rockstar Theo, billy, and depodesta and the rest of the sabermetrics crew, but our fallen heros are no longer what they were.