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MRKARNO
10-09-2004, 10:20 PM
Baseball prospectus has a new stat out which says how many wins a reliever directly contributed to that the team might not have had otherwise. The highest reliever in the majors for instance was Brad Lidge who gave the Astros 6.2 wins that they otherwise might not have had. Let's find the sum of the White Sox and Twins bullpen and see if that was a significant factor in 2004:

White Sox:

Takatsu 2.604
Marte 1.541
Politte -0.012
Adkins -0.826
Munoz -0.007
Cotts -0.547
Diaz -0.320
Darensbourg 0.005
Stewart 0.001
Schoeneweis -0.010
Garland -0.016
Wunsch -0.039
Bajenaru -0.073
Jackson -0.193
Koch -0.406

Total +1.702

Twins:

Nathan 3.980
Romero 1.221
Rincon 2.015
Roa -0.847
Crain 0.266
Balfour 0.846
Lohse 0.00
Durbin -0.008
Guerrier -0.014
Beimel -0.031
Pulido -0.331
Thomas -0.437
Greisinger -0.649
Mulholland -0.920
Fultz -1.665

Total 3.426

So while their bullpen was better, it was not a determining factor in the race. Had we Tom Gordon however, it might have been another story. He was the second best reliever in baseball under this system, responsible for 5.821 wins, which might have made it a much different race because then our bullpen total would have been +7.523. I was against resigning him at the time, but now I realize that signing him would have been well worth it.

Tragg
10-09-2004, 10:34 PM
What strikes me about those stats is the Twins had 5 hurlers that gave some solid help to our 3.

Off topic but the astros made the trade of the century getting beltran for dotel

FightingBillini
10-09-2004, 11:23 PM
You are forgetting that Flash was mediocre for us last year (12 of 17 saves- not good). I guess he is just a much better set up man than closer. Besides that, a relief pitcher making that much money is not reasonable for a "small market" team like the Sox. I would much rather have a major league short stop next year than Flash.

Pea-Pod
10-10-2004, 12:27 AM
You are forgetting that Flash was mediocre for us last year (12 of 17 saves- not good). I guess he is just a much better set up man than closer. Besides that, a relief pitcher making that much money is not reasonable for a "small market" team like the Sox. I would much rather have a major league short stop next year than Flash.

yah, except we still wont get a major league shortstop.

santo=dorf
10-10-2004, 12:43 AM
You are forgetting that Flash was mediocre for us last year (12 of 17 saves- not good). I guess he is just a much better set up man than closer. Besides that, a relief pitcher making that much money is not reasonable for a "small market" team like the Sox. I would much rather have a major league short stop next year than Flash.
WHAT???

Gordon was awesome for us last year! 3.16 ERA, 74 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 91 K's, not to metion how much he poured his heart into this team as evident by him sitting alone on the bench crying after game 3 in Minnesota last year, and he always thanked the White Sox for giving him a chance. I miss Flash. :(: :whiner:

MRKARNO
10-10-2004, 10:08 AM
You are forgetting that Flash was mediocre for us last year (12 of 17 saves- not good). I guess he is just a much better set up man than closer. Besides that, a relief pitcher making that much money is not reasonable for a "small market" team like the Sox. I would much rather have a major league short stop next year than Flash.

I'm just saying that it would have been well worth the money to get Gordon, even if he cost us 5-6 million a year based on how much he's done for the Yankees this year. Hindsight is 20-20, but in hindsight we needed to resign Gordon at all costs, either to be a setup man or a closer. That stat is also misleading because it counts the times that Gordon blew saves as a setup man and not as a closer. 4 of those blown saves came before he got his first save so as a closer he was 12 of 13, significantly better. He would have helped us a lot more than Jose Valentin in 2004 for about the same amount of money,

kermittheefrog
10-10-2004, 12:08 PM
You are forgetting that Flash was mediocre for us last year (12 of 17 saves- not good). I guess he is just a much better set up man than closer. Besides that, a relief pitcher making that much money is not reasonable for a "small market" team like the Sox. I would much rather have a major league short stop next year than Flash.

This is one of the worst posts ever. Gordon was outstanding last year.

daveeym
10-10-2004, 03:04 PM
Baseball prospectus has a new stat out which says how many wins a reliever directly contributed to that the team might not have had otherwise. The highest reliever in the majors for instance was Brad Lidge who gave the Astros 6.2 wins that they otherwise might not have had. Let's find the sum of the White Sox and Twins bullpen and see if that was a significant factor in 2004:

White Sox:

Takatsu 2.604
Marte 1.541
Politte -0.012
Adkins -0.826
Munoz -0.007
Cotts -0.547
Diaz -0.320
Darensbourg 0.005
Stewart 0.001
Schoeneweis -0.010
Garland -0.016
Wunsch -0.039
Bajenaru -0.073
Jackson -0.193
Koch -0.406

Total +1.702

Twins:

Nathan 3.980
Romero 1.221
Rincon 2.015
Roa -0.847
Crain 0.266
Balfour 0.846
Lohse 0.00
Durbin -0.008
Guerrier -0.014
Beimel -0.031
Pulido -0.331
Thomas -0.437
Greisinger -0.649
Mulholland -0.920
Fultz -1.665

Total 3.426

So while their bullpen was better, it was not a determining factor in the race. Had we Tom Gordon however, it might have been another story. He was the second best reliever in baseball under this system, responsible for 5.821 wins, which might have made it a much different race because then our bullpen total would have been +7.523. I was against resigning him at the time, but now I realize that signing him would have been well worth it. I have no idea what this means and how to even analyze it. Sounds like another Horse**** stat for statheads to play with. What goes into determining each pitchers number?

MRKARNO
10-10-2004, 03:42 PM
I have no idea what this means and how to even analyze it. Sounds like another Horse**** stat for statheads to play with. What goes into determining each pitchers number?

The newest relief report is the Reliever Win Expectation report. This report looks not only at the run expectation the reliever faced, but also at the overall game situation, and the impact he had on the team's chances of winning the game. Relievers who pitch in high-leverage have a disproportionate effect than you'd expect from their runs prevented, and this captures that extra leverage. Win expectations are calculated compared to league average or to replacement level, and in each case with or without an adjustment for the actual quality of opposing batters faced by the reliever.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3545