View Full Version : *official* preseason prediction discussion thread

10-01-2004, 09:15 AM
Did you tell me so? Let me know if you told me so...:D:

10-01-2004, 09:45 AM
I distinctly remember SEALgep repeating "Rowand will be fine". Kudos. :gulp:

10-01-2004, 09:49 AM
Trade Paulie while his value is at an all-time high for a SP and top pitching prospect. Gload to start at first in '05

Harris will start at 2B, Valdez at SS.

Good bye Jose!

Crede will bounce back at the plate. He's too good defensively to give up yet.

Lee and ARow back in the OF. Rowand's BA will go down but keep his power.

Lots of possibilities for RF. Mags with a contract laced with incentives and low-base salary or see what Anderson/Sweeney can do. JR would love these options...Mags will be cheap if he's hurt and doesn't produce and both rookies woluldn't cost much.

Sandy Alomar remains on the roster. Statue quo at catcher...Burke and Davis will platoon.

JR and KW will be content with our top three SPs and won't go after a top starter. Instead we will look for help at the bottom of the rotation. Sound familiar?

Marte will be our closer if we don't re-sign Shingo.

Divsion will be much improved. Detroit and Cleveland made strides this year and the Twins, well, they're still the Twins.

10-01-2004, 10:43 AM
Approximate quotations on my part...

I was wrong:

"You never know, once again this could be Garland's breakout year." I wasn't counting on it by any stretch. It is a possibility every year. Though it wasn't to be.
"I think we'll win the division. I just sense that things will come together and the way Chicago baseball works is that when one team makes the playoffs, the OTHER makes the playoffs the following year." That's true sometimes, but the more concrete law is that we're doomed for failure in Chicago.
"We're basically the same team as last year and now we have an upbeat, leader-type as manager and that will be the difference that will get us into the playoffs." Sounds logical, didn't happen.

I was bloody well right:

"Harris is not an every day player. Give Uribe a shot, he's got a lot of potential."
"Thomas will be back, possibly even better than last year." Hey, can't fault me for him getting hurt. He was number one in obp, up there in slugging and on his way to 40 homers when he got hurt.
"We WILL get at least one big name pitcher in a trade. It's a matter of when."

Flight #24
10-01-2004, 10:47 AM
Approximate quotations on my part...

I was bloody well right:

"Thomas will be back, possibly even better than last year." Hey, can't fault me for him getting hurt. He was number one in obp, up there in slugging and on his way to 40 homers when he got hurt.
Why not? People slam Sox management left and right for this team without noticing that both Frank AND Maggs were out>50% of the year. You think you're getting off scot free?:D:

10-01-2004, 11:36 AM
Team Stats

Wins:89 Not quite. :(

Division Placement:1st Damn optimism

Post-Season Success:Lose in ALCS Ok, stop laughing now...

Batting Leader Predictions

Batting Average:Magglio Ordonez Wrong, but who knows without injury

Homers:Frank Thomas Wrong, but once agian that injury thing

RBI:Frank Thomas Same as above

OPS:Frank Thomas Same as above

Steals:Willie Harris Right, but not as many as I thought.

Walks:Frank Thomas Injured, but only has 2 less than team leader -PK

SO:Jose Valentin No doubt about this one

Pitching Leader Predictions

Wins:Mark Buerhle Yep

Saves:Shingo Takatsu Yep

SO:Esteban Loaiza My bad...Garcia's the man.

ERA:Mark Buerhle Among starters, just behing Garcia

Walks:Dan Wright Wrong, thankfully not aroung long enough to see

Losses:Dan Wright Same as above

Ok, I suck.

Lip Man 1
10-01-2004, 12:19 PM
This hasn't been said much but Rowand is one of the biggest decisions that Williams has to make in the off season. He has to determine if Aaron's 'breakout' season was legit or if it was a fluke.

That's why he makes the big bucks I guess.


10-01-2004, 02:05 PM
C - Olivo was on pace to meet my pre-season prediction before the trade. Alomar did exactly what I expected. Burke obviously did better than expected in limited action.
1B - I predicted that Konerko would bounce back with a .280 AVE, but his HR total is a pleasant surprise. Gload is in the same category as Burke.
2B - Harris met my fairly limited prediction. Uribe exceeded it.
SS - Valentin did about what I predicted. His AVE was lower, but his HR total was a bit higher.
3B - Crede was a HUGE disappointment.
OF / DH = Ordonez and Thomas did fine until their injuries. Lee satisfied my prediction. Though my prediction of Rowand's performance was deemed impossibly high by most, he actually exceeded my prediction by a wide margin. Perez and Borchard did not surprise me.
SP - For Buehrle, I predicted a 3.70 ERA in 230 IP, which is pretty close to his actual numbers. I predicted that Loaiza would fall off susbstantially, but not nearly as much as he actually did. Garland did a bit worse than I predicted. Wright, Schoeneweis, and Rauch met my very limited expectations.
RP - Takatsu was WAY better than I expected. Grilli, Adkins, Cotts met my limited expectations. Marte and Politte were marginally worse. I expected Wunsch, Koch, and Jackson to contribute at least something of value to the Sox, but that wasn't in the cards.

My overall assessment was that the 2004 Sox had less talent than the 2003 Sox team that failed. The Sox needed to do more in the offseason to address SP, RP, and IF. I took a lot of heat for advocating that KW decline Valentin's option and for being the first to advocate trading Maggs. I wanted a SS upgrade and a pitcher in return for Maggs (preferably Garcia and Guillen from Seattle). In retrospect, that hypothetical trade would have been outstanding, but Maggs' injury was not predictable.

My "bottom line" season prediction was "[s]till plenty of pop, but not enough speed and OBP. Just barely enough pitching to win a very weak division." That was basically accurate until the injuries to Frank and Maggs, though the Twins performed better than I expected.

10-01-2004, 02:15 PM
Wrong about--- Rowand, Takatsu, Crede

Correct about-- Harris

10-01-2004, 02:45 PM
was in general right/close about clee, rowand, konerko, buehrle, valentin, harris, loaiza, alomar, uribe, ozzie, (thomas, magglio %-wise), and the sox finishing 2nd.

was wrong about crede, garland, (rauch - so far :smile: ), olivo.

10-01-2004, 03:17 PM
Wrong: Jumping to conclusions about Valentin...when he was getting all those clutch hits, I titied a thread "Is it time to give Valentin an extention?" I was leading the bandwagon. He they proceeded to get about 9 hits after that 1st week of June. Last time I do that.

I also jumped to conclusions when I titled a thread "Willie Harris I am sorry for ever doubting you." This is the last time I write a thread midseason during a hot streak. I was so excited...the first month he played solid D in addition to hitting like .320 and taking walks. I thought the SB would come. They didn't. The hits didn't keep coming. Now, he is a fringe major leaguer, IMO...unless he learns how to steak a F'ing base.

Kelly Wunsch: Got into a big fight with Randar over this guy, but he was too hurt to produce. Randar got me that one time...:cool:

And I think everyone kind of got on the Scott Showenweis bandwagon after his first few starts...

Shingo Takatsu. I wanted everyone to lay off after the spring...

Dan Wright couldn't be counted on...whether that be do to injury or whatever...

Jon Garland is a mental midget.

10-01-2004, 03:19 PM
Let's look at what I wrote over the winter:

-- Catcher
Situation largely unchanged. Sandy Alomar is one year older and ready to lower his .268 BA to a more Sox-like .250 or .240. In addition, he is likely to be bothered by his legs, which are due to give out sometime in the near future, and might have an injury or two in store. Miguel Olivo, Alomar's younger counterpart, is set to add another year to his disappointing career. While he'll probably finish last or close to it when it comes to defensive errors committed down the center, he'll more than make up for it with offensive ineptitude. All fear the .287 On-Base percentage. Then, of course, there's Jamie Burke, who replaces Josh Paul as the career minor-leaguer brought up in case Alomar's age finally catches up with him. His career highlights include hitting eight home-runs in the 2002 AAA season and starting 35 games as a catcher (again at AAA) in 2000. And this is from the Official Propaganda Mill too. I really feel sorry for the guys who have to write that.

-- First Base
Ah, my favorite: Paul Konerko. My favorite guy to hate, that is. Putting up All-Star numbers one half of the season, finishing behind Willie Harris the other half, he's more than likely the slowest player in baseball. Anyone remember the time he tripped between first and second against the Cubs? Yikes.
The best thing about Konerko, though, is that his bipolarism really messes with people's minds. It's amusing to watch people buy up Konerko jerseys during his good half and watch them embarrass themselves by continuing to wear them to games during his bad half, hoping in vain that he'll get to that base after shortstop again before the season ends. Unfortunately, he usually understands that to mean "go sit down in the dugout", which is what he should be doing anyway. Why did we let Daubauch go again?

-- Second Base
Ever seen that episode of The Simpsons where Principle Skinner summons Marge and Homer to his office and shows them a 3D model of Bart's classroom to demonstrate that their son not only gets poor marks but actually drags down the performance of everyone sitting within a certain radius of him? Well, I have a similar theory involving Willie Harris. This guy is SO bad that there is no way his 5'9", 175-pound frame can hold it all in. The badness just bursts forth from every orifice and infects all of his teammates. Nobody is safe. Not even you, Juan Uribe. Harris features a career .213 BA, which is deceptively high, given his .204 performance last season. Of course, his 5 RBIs made up for that. Wait, no, they didn't! Well, that's okay, we just keep him around for speed anyway. Oh...right...you have to get on a base in order to steal one. So much for that.

-- Third Base
Joe Crede's greatest contribution to the team so far has been his small cult of fans, known as Crede's Crew. A small group of young men, Crede's Crew stands on the fandeck holding a banner stating their name. Occasionally, they will take their shirts off to spell "Crede" or wave blow-up plastic bats. Once in a while, they'll even have the opportunity to cheer, because this guy actually gets a hit sometimes. With a .261 BA and decent power, he's well on his way to becoming yet another Sox player "on the verge of having a breakout year" for his entire career. Not enough to keep me from waking up in the middle of the night screaming Herbert Perry's name, but it could be worse. It probably will be this season, given our luck.

-- Shortstop
Jose Valentin is a real throwback, a tip of the hat to the days when a shortstop was SUPPOSED to suck. Acknowledging this, Kenny Williams, ever the history buff, just re-signed him to a multimillion dollar deal. With unimpressive offensive stats and a penchant for errors, he wouldn't stand out on this team at all were it not for his mustache and the fact that he has a son named "Yomar". On second thought, that latter factoid may indeed be worth $5 million...

-- Right Field
I can't find many problems with Magglio. Unfortunately, since the White Sox do not have anywhere near the resources to re-sign him and will likely trade him midseason, I'll soon have a new mediocre outfielder to hate on. I'll just say that he sucks in advance, whoever he ends up being. Probably Joe Borchard, who would join the long, proud tradition of overpaid, underperforming home run hitter wannabes that this team has.

-- Center Field
Last year, everyone was saying that Rowand was about to have a "breakout year". What that meant was that he fell out of an ATV and broke himself, giving his apologists an excuse for his poor performance. I wonder what they'll think of this year...

-- Left Field
One of the more recent Chicago sports clichés the media has taken up is listing Carlos Lee as a potential MVP sleeper every year. I don't know what new illicit drug is responsible for this situation, but it has spread far beyond Chicago. Even East Coast media have started to point out that Carlos Lee has lost weight, gained weight, "learned from another year of experience", or done something else that they claim "gives him a new edge." Yahoo Fantasy Baseball even ranks him 34th overall in their default draft pre-rankings. Of course, since, the possibility of a disappointing or injury-marred season is directly proportional to their Yahoo default pre-rank, this means the spring training MVP talk next year is going to have a whole new twist to it.

-- Starting Pitching
Mark Buehrle signed a new long-term contract with the White Sox over the offseason, which means our so-called ace no longer has to worry about looking good for the St. Louis scouts. At least he's steady; for the past two years, he has finished one win short of his target. Unfortunately, if the current pattern continues, his target this year will be 10. Esteban Loaiza, returning from an All-Star, 21-win year, is in a prime position to be a huge disappointment, but he'll have two seasoned veterans in that department to contend with: Jon Garland and Danny Wright, undeveloped talent incarnate. As bad as they are, however, they'll look like Roger Clemens next to our fifth starter....oh...oops, we don't have a fifth starter! Haha! Wait, that's not funny...

-- Relief Pitching
Well, let's see, we have....oh god, I might enjoy wallowing in my own sense of hopelessness, but this would be too much. Let's not talk about our bullpen. There are far less depressing subjects. That Chinese bird flu, the civil war in Haiti, the Yellowstone Supervolcano, take your pick.

Well, looks like I was a bit too pessimistic about Konerko and Caballo, spot-on about Borchard, Loaiza, and the non-Buerhle rotation, and too optimistic (!!!) about Crede.

10-01-2004, 03:37 PM
Paul Konerko. My favorite guy to hate, that is. Putting up All-Star numbers one half of the season, finishing behind Willie Harris the other half,
this may be the first season he's really done well both halves. looks like he's conquored his good/bad half demons.

10-01-2004, 04:16 PM
this may be the first season he's really done well both halves. looks like he's conquored his good/bad half demons.
That is why he should be traded...

Someone needs to send KW the memo about buying low and selling high.

10-01-2004, 06:34 PM
That is why he should be traded...

Someone needs to send KW the memo about buying low and selling high.
brilliant! we should do this with all our players in fact. as soon as they realize their potential with something like 40 hr's and 115 rbi's .... DUMP em!

10-01-2004, 06:45 PM
----->I thought they would only win 80 games to finish in second place with no playoffs. So pretty much right on with that one.

-----> I put Billy Koch as my saves leader, Marte for ERA. HA

-----> Buehrle for wins.

----->My batting leaders were mostly Maggs and Frank. I had PK for most K's.

10-01-2004, 08:22 PM
This hasn't been said much but Rowand is one of the biggest decisions that Williams has to make in the off season. He has to determine if Aaron's 'breakout' season was legit or if it was a fluke.

That's why he makes the big bucks I guess.


There's no decision to make at all. He outslugged Konerko, a guy who hit 41 homers on the season. The guy flat out won the starting job for this year and next year until he fails. Put Rowand in front of Thomas in the 2 hole and he almsot can't fail. Getting another center fielder is just going to ruin everything much like getting Clayton when we had a good Valentin and Herb Perry.

10-02-2004, 11:48 AM
I predicted 90+ wins and at least an appearance in the ALDS. Wrong
I also predicted I beleive 14-18 wins for Loiaza. Also Wrong
I thought Harris would show that he would become our future 2nd Baseman. i know I will get slammed but I still want to see him start more, I dont know why I still think he has potential to do something playing full time over a year. But for this year I am wrong on that.
Ithought Rowand would break through and be a lot better. Right
I thought Crede would break out this year as well. Wrong
I thought Garland would breakout as well, win 15 games. Wrong
Hmmmm, in general I was pretty wrong about everything. Maybe I will pick the team to fail miserably next year.