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illiniwhitesox
08-24-2004, 12:12 PM
For the past year, I have heard repeated comments about KW depleting our farm system. I don't pretend to know whether or not this is true.

Please help me on this. What major leaguers has our farm system produced during his tenure? If we have traded away our future, where are they now? Please exclude from this the recent Seattle trade to acquire Garcia.

From my perspective, there are four possibilities:
1) The prospects that we have traded away, have not panned out (kudos to KW if this is the case).
2) The prospects we have traded are still playing minor league ball and need time to develop (jury is still out on KW then). If this is the case, will these prospects eventually make an impact?
3) Our farm system is not very good and the players we have traded away amount to us acquiring other team's major league players for prospects that will not amount to much (kudos to KW then).
4) There are players that have traded away that are making a positive impact at a major league level (KW has screwed up). I don't know of any who fit this category.

hold2dibber
08-24-2004, 12:49 PM
For the past year, I have heard repeated comments about KW depleting our farm system. I don't pretend to know whether or not this is true.

Please help me on this. What major leaguers has our farm system produced during his tenure? If we have traded away our future, where are they now? Please exclude from this the recent Seattle trade to acquire Garcia.

From my perspective, there are four possibilities:
1) The prospects that we have traded away, have not panned out (kudos to KW if this is the case).
2) The prospects we have traded are still playing minor league ball and need time to develop (jury is still out on KW then). If this is the case, will these prospects eventually make an impact?
3) Our farm system is not very good and the players we have traded away amount to us acquiring other team's major league players for prospects that will not amount to much (kudos to KW then).
4) There are players that have traded away that are making a positive impact at a major league level (KW has screwed up). I don't know of any who fit this category.
While I don't claim real expertise in the area of the prospects of minor league players, off the top of my head here's what I understand to be the status of some of the minor leaguers KW has moved over the last 18 months or so:

(1) Frank Francisco (1st Everett trade) has been very good in middle relief for the Rangers this year;
(2) Tim Hummel (Scott Sullivan trade) has been unable to make a mark at the major league level and is in AAA;
(3) Joe Valentine (Foulke trade) has bounced around a bit (I think he's with the Reds system now) and has not been very good and doesn't seem like much of a prospect any more;
(4) Royce Ring (1st Alomar trade) has been unable to make/stick with the major league club; I think most people view him as a decent middle relief guy, at best, in the future;
(5) Jon Rauch (2nd Everett trade) pitched pretty well for the Expos before pulling a muscle in his side - the jury is still out;

I know the Sox traded another good low minors OF to the Rangers in the 1st Everett deal, but I can't recall his name (Webster maybe) and I don't know how he has fared since the deal. I also don't remember who the Sox got when they traded D'Angelo Jimenez to the Reds last year. I still don't know who the Sox traded to get Robbie Alomar back again this year.

duke of dorwood
08-24-2004, 12:52 PM
We traded Magglio to get Alomar back-that's really why we dont see him

mrzerofan
08-24-2004, 12:55 PM
The guy we got for Jimenez we traded along with glover for showenweiss

DrCrawdad
08-24-2004, 01:27 PM
I tend to agree with KW's view that the farm system is there to support the major league club, be it with bringing players up or through trades. However, I feel that KW has given up too much in many of his trades. And where the Sox really needed help lately is not at 2nd base and the outfield (Everett & Alomar) but in the bullpen. The Sox starters have (inhaled) lately but the bullpen has been bad for most of the season.

LauraJ14
08-24-2004, 01:31 PM
Who is the last player to come up from the minors and make an impact for the Sox?
Carlos Lee, Mark Buherle, Aaron Rowand
Crede and Borchard have not been good
almost everyone else on this team is via trade, ( Uribe, Harris, Valentin, Konerko, Garcia, Contreras, Marte, Cotts, Timo, Davis, Robby, Carl)
When was the last real free agent we signed? I not talking about guys like Sandy, Loaiza and Daubach. If you don't have the money to spend on free agents then you have to work the farm system so that you can get some value out of them
And before someone says that they are always drafting higher in the rounds, look at Atlanta. They have a good system even though they have been in the playoffs for 12 straight years.

gosox41
08-24-2004, 02:00 PM
Who is the last player to come up from the minors and make an impact for the Sox?
Carlos Lee, Mark Buherle, Aaron Rowand
Crede and Borchard have not been good
almost everyone else on this team is via trade, ( Uribe, Harris, Valentin, Konerko, Garcia, Contreras, Marte, Cotts, Timo, Davis, Robby, Carl)
When was the last real free agent we signed? I not talking about guys like Sandy, Loaiza and Daubach. If you don't have the money to spend on free agents then you have to work the farm system so that you can get some value out of them
And before someone says that they are always drafting higher in the rounds, look at Atlanta. They have a good system even though they have been in the playoffs for 12 straight years.
I am also sick of hearing about how hard it is to have a farm system when you don't have any top 10 draft picks for awhile. Sure, franchise players can be taken there, but they've alse been taken later.

And besides if you take a team like the Twins, a lot of their first round picks haven't amounted too much.

I know, they have an advantage of having all those early picks in the 22nd round. Where as the Sox have the 15th or 20th pick in the 22nd round, the Twins spent most of the 1990s' with the first or second pick.


Bob

Hangar18
08-24-2004, 02:38 PM
Heres what I have to say on this. Whether or not WHO we traded was truly
VALUABLE or not, im just FURIOUS WE TRADED PEOPLE TO COVER UP HOLES WE SELF INFLICTED IN THE OFFSEASON Two Steps forward, Two steps back

maurice
08-24-2004, 03:27 PM
For the past year, I have heard repeated comments about KW depleting our farm system.
This was covered in the consolidated "Lynch KW" thread (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=39346&page=1&pp=30).

KW-hating trolls who have no knowledge of the minor league system like to use this phrase but are unable to provide a list of traded prospects which is any longer or more disconcerting than the one dib provided in this thread.

KW has traded lots of marginal minor-leaguers (e.g., Hummel), a small number of decent prospects (e.g., Fransisco), and some MLB players everybody is familiar with (e.g., Loaiza). The vast majority of the minor-league "prospects" he traded will never amount to anything. None of them are expected to be MLB All Stars.

In return for this mixed bag, KW rented some veteran players and acquired some quality MLB players with multi-year deals (e.g., Garcia, Contreres, Marte).

Hangar18
08-24-2004, 04:12 PM
KW has traded lots of marginal minor-leaguers (e.g., Hummel), a small number of decent prospects (e.g., Fransisco), and some MLB players everybody is familiar with (e.g., Loaiza). The vast majority of the minor-league "prospects" he traded will never amount to anything. None of them are expected to be MLB All Stars.

In return for this mixed bag, KW rented some veteran players and acquired some quality MLB players with multi-year deals (e.g., Garcia, Contreres, Marte).
Why werent we trading our Marginal players for Real/Stud Players, and stolen
from the weak-sister MLB teams like the (Expos/Reds/Marlins/Pirates) Evil Blue COrporation up north ??

maurice
08-24-2004, 06:15 PM
Why werent we trading our Marginal players for Real/Stud Players, and stolen from the weak-sister MLB teams like the (Expos/Reds/Marlins/Pirates) Evil Blue COrporation up north ??Because Hendry has all the payroll he needs to add good players from bad teams and then resign them. KW did something like that with Garcia (and apparently intended to do it with Colon), but he doesn't have the room to do it more often. That's partly KW's fault but mostly JR's fault.

Props to Hendry, but his job is made much easier by the substantial financial backing of the local equivalent of the Evil Empire.

California Sox
08-24-2004, 07:33 PM
Because Hendry has all the payroll he needs to add good players from bad teams and then resign them. KW did something like that with Garcia (and apparently intended to do it with Colon), but he doesn't have the room to do it more often.
I'm not a KW basher, but there's a huge difference between the Colon trade (Rocky Biddle and a case of jock straps) versus the Garcia trade where we gave up our starting catcher and two of our top five prospects. Jim Hendry is constitutionally incapable of making a trade like that. In that regard, he's a lot like Ron Schueler. The Garcia trade may yet work out, but it was not a case of adding payroll from a Montreal-like weak sister. Seattle's revenue stream is bigger than the Sox'.

California Sox
08-24-2004, 07:35 PM
And by the way, the outfielder in the Carl Everett trade (I) was in fact Anthony Webster, who's a decent prospect but is not missed in the Sox system, which has outstanding depth in CF. Also involved in that trade is Josh Rupe, who is a very highly thought of RHP who's had some injury troubles this season.

jabrch
08-24-2004, 08:12 PM
versus the Garcia trade where we gave up our starting catcher and two of our top five prospects.

Reed was a top prospect. Morse was not only not top 5, but not top 10 or even more.

Daver
08-24-2004, 08:21 PM
Reed was a top prospect. Morse was not only not top 5, but not top 10 or even more.
Has anyone here ever seen Morse play?

I have, it was not pretty.

MRKARNO
08-24-2004, 08:35 PM
Has anyone here ever seen Morse play?

I have, it was not pretty.
You're not saying that Morse is worse than McCarthy, Anderson, Sweeney, Diaz, Munoz, Nanita, Bajenaru and Josh Fields (both of them) are you? Blasphemy

chisoxt
08-24-2004, 08:37 PM
For the past year, I have heard repeated comments about KW depleting our farm system. I don't pretend to know whether or not this is true.

Please help me on this. What major leaguers has our farm system produced during his tenure? If we have traded away our future, where are they now? Please exclude from this the recent Seattle trade to acquire Garcia.

From my perspective, there are four possibilities:
1) The prospects that we have traded away, have not panned out (kudos to KW if this is the case).
2) The prospects we have traded are still playing minor league ball and need time to develop (jury is still out on KW then). If this is the case, will these prospects eventually make an impact?
3) Our farm system is not very good and the players we have traded away amount to us acquiring other team's major league players for prospects that will not amount to much (kudos to KW then).
4) There are players that have traded away that are making a positive impact at a major league level (KW has screwed up). I don't know of any who fit this category.
No Kudos to KW!!! If you are a team with limited payroll like the Sox supposedly are, you had better develop a solid farm system. Otherwise, you end being a team that has to compete on the open market for free agents with the likes of Boston, New York and Los Angeles.

PaleHoseGeorge
08-24-2004, 09:04 PM
If you are a team with limited payroll like the Sox supposedly are, you had better develop a solid farm system. Otherwise, you end being a team that has to compete on the open market for free agents with the likes of Boston, New York and Los Angeles.LOL! Yeah, sure...

"If you are a team with limited payroll and a solid farm system," you become the Pittsburgh Pirates... perpetual losers getting fleeced in trades by the Cubs and other teams with the money to pay the talent you can't afford. The Sox become nothing but a AAAA team, a later day version of the Kansas City Athletics.

The Sox play in the #3 market, not Kansas City or Pittsburgh.

Yeah, world championship here we come.

:kukoo:

TornLabrum
08-24-2004, 10:37 PM
LOL! Yeah, sure...

"If you are a team with limited payroll and a solid farm system," you become the Pittsburgh Pirates... perpetual losers getting fleeced in trades by the Cubs and other teams with the money to pay the talent you can't afford. The Sox become nothing but a AAAA team, a later day version of the Kansas City Athletics.

The Sox play in the #3 market, not Kansas City or Pittsburgh.

Yeah, world championship here we come.

:kukoo:
Or you become the Minnesota Twins?

A. Cavatica
08-25-2004, 02:07 AM
Some numbers on players traded away recently...

Miguel Olivo, D'Angelo Jimenez, Aaron Miles, Frankie Francisco, Matt Ginter, and Jon Rauch have basically been major leaguers since leaving the Sox. (Rauch was working on a no-hitter when he got hurt, so he figures to get an extended shot with Montreal.)

Jeremy Reed is back up to .310 with Tacoma (AAA), with solid peripheral numbers.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Reed%2C+J

Mike Morse has slowed down only a little at San Antonio (AA).
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Morse%2C+M

Josh Rupe has pitched for Frisco (AA), Stockton (Hi A), and Spokane (R) this year. He was great at the two lower levels (4-0, 1.48, 33:7 K:BB ratio) and has been adequate at AA.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Rupe

Anthony Webster has a .364 OBP and .452 SLG for Stockton, and has stolen 18 bases in 21 attempts.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Webster

Gary Majewski has been very mediocre in Edmonton (AAA), which if memory serves is a hitter's park.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Majewski

Royce Ring has been unimpressive in Norfolk (AAA) - a 3-1 record with a 3.63 ERA, but no saves - and at Binghamton (AA) where he was 1-1, 3.72.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Ring%2C+Royce

Andrew Salvo has a .403 OBP for Long Island (I) through 260 at-bats.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Salvo

Tim Hummel struggled with Cincinnati but hit well for Louisville (AAA).
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Hummel%2C+Tim

Humberto Quintero hit very well in Portland (AAA) and earned a callup to San Diego. He had been considered a good field, no hit catcher.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/cgi-bin/statsfindplayer.pl?player=Quintero%2C+H

As I score it that's two C (Olivo/Quintero), three 2B (Miles/Hummel/Salvo), a 3B (Morse), two OF (Reed/Webster), and six P (Francisco/Rupe/Rauch/ Majewski/Ring/Ginter) for one C (Davis), one 2B (Alomar), one SS (Uribe), two OF (Perez/Everett) and one P (Garcia).

I'd rather have Olivo than Davis, Miles or Hummel than Alomar, Reed & Webster than Perez & Everett. I'd rather have Uribe than Morse, and Garcia than any of the six pitchers we gave up. But at best we've broken even on quality, and we've certainly given up quantity.

jordan23ventura
08-25-2004, 02:27 AM
Some numbers on players traded away recently...

Miguel Olivo, D'Angelo Jimenez, Aaron Miles, Frankie Francisco, Matt Ginter, and Jon Rauch have basically been major leaguers since leaving the Sox. (Rauch was working on a no-hitter when he got hurt, so he figures to get an extended shot with Montreal.)

But at best we've broken even on quality, and we've certainly given up quantity.
What use is a farm system if your major league team sucks? Ginter and Rauch both weren't answers to the No. 5 spot. Jimenez well, we don't have to explain that one. Miles was in no way going to outperform Uribe and Miguel wasn't going to contribute any more than Davis, plus rumor has it that the staff likes pitching to Davis more. Francisco would have been nice in the bullpen, but other than that, none of these guys except maybe Jeremy Reed would have been ready to step up now anyway.

Kudos to KW for realizing that the present is more important than the future. Trade anyone you want. Trade Crede, Borchard, Garland, Honel, McCarthy, Sweeney, Anderson, whoever, as long as it is going to help this team now. Ok, maybe not McCarthy. But there should never be any untouchables on any team.

PaleHoseGeorge
08-25-2004, 06:59 AM
Or you become the Minnesota Twins?Unlike the Twins, we don't have the luxury of competing against our #1 division rival, the Chicago White Sox.

Twins = baseball's tallest midget

:tongue:

samram
08-25-2004, 07:26 AM
Unlike the Twins, we don't have the luxury of competing against our #1 division rival, the Chicago White Sox.

:tongue:
Lucky bastards.

A. Cavatica
08-25-2004, 07:39 AM
What use is a farm system if your major league team sucks? Ginter and Rauch both weren't answers to the No. 5 spot. Jimenez well, we don't have to explain that one. Miles was in no way going to outperform Uribe and Miguel wasn't going to contribute any more than Davis, plus rumor has it that the staff likes pitching to Davis more. Francisco would have been nice in the bullpen, but other than that, none of these guys except maybe Jeremy Reed would have been ready to step up now anyway.

Kudos to KW for realizing that the present is more important than the future. Trade anyone you want. Trade Crede, Borchard, Garland, Honel, McCarthy, Sweeney, Anderson, whoever, as long as it is going to help this team now. Ok, maybe not McCarthy. But there should never be any untouchables on any team.This thread's about depletion of the farm system. I'm trying to show how it happened: Kenny consistently traded quantity for quality. The problem is that the quality he got back hasn't been very good, and his trades haven't helped. Remember, the 2000 team was "the kids can play".

I'd rather have Ginter & Rauch in the bullpen than Adkins & Jackson, never mind Francisco (nobody expected him to contribute this year). I like Miles for Uribe, but in trading Miles KW gave away a better 2B than Harris or Alomar. KW gave up Quintero to acquire Jimenez, then gave away Jimenez. Davis hasn't been the bust I expected, but I still like Olivo better. And Reed will have a 10-year major league career, at least.

Thank God we traded all these kids so we could have such a rosy present.

soxtalker
08-25-2004, 08:01 AM
This thread's about depletion of the farm system. I'm trying to show how it happened: Kenny consistently traded quantity for quality. The problem is that the quality he got back hasn't been very good, and his trades haven't helped. Remember, the 2000 team was "the kids can play".

I'd rather have Ginter & Rauch in the bullpen than Adkins & Jackson, never mind Francisco (nobody expected him to contribute this year). I like Miles for Uribe, but in trading Miles KW gave away a better 2B than Harris or Alomar. KW gave up Quintero to acquire Jimenez, then gave away Jimenez. Davis hasn't been the bust I expected, but I still like Olivo better. And Reed will have a 10-year major league career, at least.

Thank God we traded all these kids so we could have such a rosy present.
I agree with you. I've never liked the approach of trading for today with little thought for the future. And KW has been in charge of our farm system for 8 or 9 years, so he's as much responsible for it as anyone. However, I think that KW's approach is what most fans want and advocate. Very few fans talk about long-term ramifications of a trade of prospects.

I've often thought that it would be nice if the Sox had farm teams that were located nearby, so fans could grow familiar with the young players coming through the system. (That's not entirely possible due to baseball rules; most suburban teams are independent for that reason.)

PaleHoseGeorge
08-25-2004, 08:31 AM
Exactly *nine* guys take the field everyday. Nine.

By the time you get to the 24th and 25th man on the roster, they're almost worthless. Pinch-hitting, pinch-running, and mop-up relief duty. They're worth nothing and routinely clear waivers every fall when released of their contract by the team they played for.

No matter how long we leave a "quantity" of ballplayers in the minor leagues, they will never overcome the math outlined above. Only QUALITY counts. Superstars nearly always distinguish themselves during a relatively brief minor league stint. The rest merely linger dreaming about tomorrow, carrying the worst possible adjective.

Frankly, is there any more worthless commodity in the minor leagues than "potential"? Dime a dozen stuff... if you didn't have potential, you would be released of your contract, silly. If I had "potential," I could pitch for Charlotte, too... however not very good, and certainly never good enough for the show... and that's the only reason anyone would pay my salary.

Let's get real... over 9 in 10 minor leaguers never reach the show, and even fewer contribute in any meaningful manner once they make it. The White Sox aren't paying their salaries to win the AAA World Series. They serve another purpose... and trading for something of value is certainly one of those purposes.

You need to break eggs to make an omelette. Sitting on a river of "potential" in the minors never gets you where you need to be.

TornLabrum
08-25-2004, 08:44 AM
Unlike the Twins, we don't have the luxury of competing against our #1 division rival, the Chicago White Sox.

Twins = baseball's tallest midget

:tongue:
Okay, then how about the A's?

PaleHoseGeorge
08-25-2004, 09:00 AM
Okay, then how about the A's?
Oakland? Better at running upstream than most. No wonder Beane has so many fans here.

Oakland, Pittsburgh, Kansas City... why should a team from CHICAGO behave like a small market? That's giving away are one and only advantage.
:?:

Etownsox13
08-25-2004, 09:57 AM
What this all comes down to is that we need to draft and develop players better. It really has been a few years since a player that we have drafted has gone on to make significant contributions in the majors.

Foulke29
08-25-2004, 10:00 AM
Who is the last player to come up from the minors and make an impact for the Sox?
Carlos Lee, Mark Buherle, Aaron Rowand
Crede and Borchard have not been good
almost everyone else on this team is via trade, ( Uribe, Harris, Valentin, Konerko, Garcia, Contreras, Marte, Cotts, Timo, Davis, Robby, Carl)
When was the last real free agent we signed? I not talking about guys like Sandy, Loaiza and Daubach. If you don't have the money to spend on free agents then you have to work the farm system so that you can get some value out of them
And before someone says that they are always drafting higher in the rounds, look at Atlanta. They have a good system even though they have been in the playoffs for 12 straight years.
Rowand as been pretty good and is making an impact as we speak - Buehrle. Uhm... don't forget Cotts and Adkins and Borchard.

Foulke29
08-25-2004, 10:19 AM
I am also sick of hearing about how hard it is to have a farm system when you don't have any top 10 draft picks for awhile. Sure, franchise players can be taken there, but they've alse been taken later.

And besides if you take a team like the Twins, a lot of their first round picks haven't amounted too much.

I know, they have an advantage of having all those early picks in the 22nd round. Where as the Sox have the 15th or 20th pick in the 22nd round, the Twins spent most of the 1990s' with the first or second pick.


Bob
You know, there's some credence in what you're saying. Keep in mind that that many superstars were not top ten picks. In addition to that, the Sox have had a lot of additional draft picks based on losing players to free agency...

Lip Man 1
08-25-2004, 10:25 AM
Andrew talks about 'trading away the future for such a rosy present...'

Go back seven years Andrew to when the Sox traded away the present for 'such a rosy future...'

This organization as PHG, suggests, is always looking for a way to chisel, to cut corners, to save and stretch and rubberize every friggin' dime that they can.

Until they lose that attitude they'll never do squat on the field nor win anything of substance.

Lip

samram
08-25-2004, 10:25 AM
You know, there's some credence in what you're saying. Keep in mind that that many superstars were not top ten picks. In addition to that, the Sox have had a lot of additional draft picks based on losing players to free agency...
Yep, if you look at the Twins' first round picks during the 1990s, there are some very solid players, of which only Cuddyer and Hunter are still there, and Mauer was their pick in 2001. It's not as if the entire team was built on high draft picks.

jackbrohamer
08-25-2004, 11:07 AM
Andrew talks about 'trading away the future for such a rosy present...'

Go back seven years Andrew to when the Sox traded away the present for 'such a rosy future...'

This organization as PHG, suggests, is always looking for a way to chisel, to cut corners, to save and stretch and rubberize every friggin' dime that they can.

They seem to never consider the fact that a team can both try to win in the present, and develop players who will contribute in the future, at the same time.

Randar68
08-25-2004, 11:11 AM
They seem to never consider the fact that a team can both try to win in the present, and develop players who will contribute in the future, at the same time.Not on a limited budget you can't, and therein lies the problem. You have to either depend on your farm system to develop guys for your MLB team, or you have to use it to acquire proven MLB players. You can do the latter and still have a guy here and there make it through and become a regular, but it's hard to do...

Hangar18
08-25-2004, 12:04 PM
Because Hendry has all the payroll he needs to add good players from bad teams and then resign them. KW did something like that with Garcia (and apparently intended to do it with Colon), but he doesn't have the room to do it more often. That's partly KW's fault but mostly JR's fault.

Props to Hendry, but his job is made much easier by the substantial financial backing of the local equivalent of the Evil Empire.
So in other words, Hendry is being Glorified in the Chicago Media as a Administrative Genius able to get the best deal, when all along he was merely
a Corporate Thug able to beat the proverbial Old Woman and Take her Pension Check from her Purse? my gosh ......... why is the Chicago Media doing this?

voodoochile
08-25-2004, 12:12 PM
So in other words, Hendry is being Glorified in the Chicago Media as a Administrative Genius able to get the best deal, when all along he was merely
a Corporate Thug able to beat the proverbial Old Woman and Take her Pension Check from her Purse? my gosh ......... why is the Chicago Media doing this?
I have no idea what that means. Come on Hangar... That is completely over the top...:?:

santo=dorf
08-25-2004, 12:20 PM
I'm curious as to why noone has jumped on Hendry for trading Juan Cruz. The Cubs' bullpen has had it's issues lately and Cruz has been very effective coming out of the bullpen for Atlanta. Here are Andy Pratt's ERAs with the respective teams he has pitched for this year.

Cubs: 21.60
Iowa (AAA) :19.00
West Tenn (AA): 11.49
Lansing (A) : 8.68
Mesa (R): 6.75
:roflmao:

Tragg
08-25-2004, 12:20 PM
What use is a farm system if your major league team sucks? Ginter and Rauch both weren't answers to the No. 5 spot. Rauch had 2 5th starter starts, I believe; his second one was the best start we had from that position; he was then traded away

santo=dorf
08-25-2004, 12:24 PM
Rauch had 2 5th starter starts, I believe; his second one was the best start we had from that position; he was then traded away
He couldn't make it out of the sixth and had to be bailed out after putting on two base runners. I saw enough of Rauch after that Seattle game back in 2002.:redface:

Flight #24
08-25-2004, 12:32 PM
He couldn't make it out of the sixth and had to be bailed out after putting on two base runners. I saw enough of Rauch after that Seattle game back in 2002.:redface:
Not to mention that IIRC, he was the beneficiary of some pretty incredible defensive plays by Rowand & Valentin on some balls that were crushed. He didn't pitch as well as his runs allowed would indicate that day.

SoxxoS
08-25-2004, 12:54 PM
Not to mention that IIRC, he was the beneficiary of some pretty incredible defensive plays by Rowand & Valentin on some balls that were crushed. He didn't pitch as well as his runs allowed would indicate that day.
And that throwout at second by Ross Gload in RF, of all people.

gosox41
08-25-2004, 01:33 PM
You know, there's some credence in what you're saying. Keep in mind that that many superstars were not top ten picks. In addition to that, the Sox have had a lot of additional draft picks based on losing players to free agency...Exactly. And those sandwich picks are important. If anything it gives talent to trade in a year or so after the drafted.

Unless your the Sox. I think it was 1998 or 1999 the Sox had 6 out of the first 60-70 picks or so. They drafted a ton of pitching, and none of those early picks worked out for the Sox. How many millions of dollars did the Sox waste there?


Bob

gosox41
08-25-2004, 01:38 PM
Not on a limited budget you can't, and therein lies the problem. You have to either depend on your farm system to develop guys for your MLB team, or you have to use it to acquire proven MLB players. You can do the latter and still have a guy here and there make it through and become a regular, but it's hard to do...
It's definitely hard to do, but it is being done. Oakland and Minnesota are 2 examples of teams who have won and have lost significant players through FA in the process. They may have different strategies but both have made multiple playoff appearances over the last 5 years.

The thing that bothers me about the Sox is that outside of Reed and Rauch they didn't give up much minor league talent to get veterans. Kudos for KW for that. But on the flip side there are no players that are rady to come up and make a positive impact on the Sox this year.


Bob

Fungo
08-25-2004, 03:12 PM
Exactly. And those sandwich picks are important. If anything it gives talent to trade in a year or so after the drafted.

Unless your the Sox. I think it was 1998 or 1999 the Sox had 6 out of the first 60-70 picks or so. They drafted a ton of pitching, and none of those early picks worked out for the Sox. How many millions of dollars did the Sox waste there?


Bob
Did you bother to look at the list of the other teams and their busts? I've included the Twins first 10 rounds of the same draft for your viewing pleasure, cause I'm sure that's who you're comparing us to.



5. "THE GREAT" B.J. Garbe OF Minnesota Twins Moses Lake HS (WA) 17 .217 New Britain (AA)

56. "THE GREAT" Rob Bowen C Minnesota Twins Homestead HS (Fort Wayne,IN) 14 .100 Minnesota Twins (MLB)

89. Justin Morneau 1B Minnesota Twins New Westminster HS (BC) 68 .289 Minnesota Twins (MLB)

119. "THE GREAT" Jeff Randazzo P Minnesota Twins Cardinal O'Hara HS (Springfield,PA) Fort Myers (A)

149. "THE GREAT" Edward Schoening P Minnesota Twins Auburn University OUT OF BASEBALL

179. "THE GREAT" Brian Wolfe P Minnesota Twins Servite HS (Anaheim,CA) 2 0.00 New Britain (AA)

209. "THE GREAT" Darren Ciraco OF Minnesota Twins Pelham Memorial HS (Pelham,NY) 1 .000 Winston-Salem (A)

239. "THE GREAT" Matt Scanlon IF Minnesota Twins University of Minnesota 2 .000 New Britain (AA)

269. "THE GREAT" Grant Gregg Minnesota Twins McLennan College Chillicothe (Ind.)

299. "THE GREAT" Jim Caine Minnesota Twins St. Charles HS (IL) OUT OF BASEBALL

Jason Stumm, Matt Ginter, Brian West, Rob Purvis, Danny Wright, Bobby Hill, Jon Rauch, Brandon Sloan, Josh Stewart, David Sanders, Mike Patten, Dennis Ulacia, Corwin Malone & Matt Guerrier were the White Sox first 10 rounds picks that year. We've found out this year how hard it is for any player to make it to the big leagues. I forget the number, but I think it is less than 10% of all minor leaguers make it to the majors. All teams have their share of kids that don't make it, not just the Sox.

maurice
08-25-2004, 03:27 PM
You also need to keep in mind that prospects traded for actual MLB players are just as good as drafting an MLB player. For example:

Matt Guerrier = Damaso Marte
Matt Ginter = Timo Perez
and, FWIW
Jon Rauch = Carl Everett

Hill didn't sign with us but, IIRC, was traded to the Bucks for Aramis Ramirez! Stewart and Sanders probably won't amount to anything, but both had a cup of coffee with the Sox and still have a chance to stick at the back of a MLB bullpen.

Finally, unless you draft only position players, injuries to pitchers make the MLB draft even less predictable. Stumm, Purvis, Wright, Rauch, and Malone all have had serious injuries since being drafted.

Lip Man 1
08-25-2004, 03:41 PM
Fungo:

Baseball American said one per cent of all minor league players ever get to spend a day in the big leagues.

Lip

Fungo
08-25-2004, 03:50 PM
Fungo:

Baseball American said one per cent of all minor league players ever get to spend a day in the big leagues.

LipThanks Lip, I thought I was being generous with the 10%, but didn't realize it was that low. Further showing that the draft is nothing more than a crap-shoot. Some quick math tells me that a draft of 50 round with 30 teams in any particular year gives you 1500 players drafted and only 15 ever spend a day in the bigs. Obviously that doesn't include the free agent signs after the draft.

gosox41
08-25-2004, 11:13 PM
Did you bother to look at the list of the other teams and their busts? I've included the Twins first 10 rounds of the same draft for your viewing pleasure, cause I'm sure that's who you're comparing us to.



5. "THE GREAT" B.J. Garbe OF Minnesota Twins Moses Lake HS (WA) 17 .217 New Britain (AA)

56. "THE GREAT" Rob Bowen C Minnesota Twins Homestead HS (Fort Wayne,IN) 14 .100 Minnesota Twins (MLB)

89. Justin Morneau 1B Minnesota Twins New Westminster HS (BC) 68 .289 Minnesota Twins (MLB)

119. "THE GREAT" Jeff Randazzo P Minnesota Twins Cardinal O'Hara HS (Springfield,PA) Fort Myers (A)

149. "THE GREAT" Edward Schoening P Minnesota Twins Auburn University OUT OF BASEBALL

179. "THE GREAT" Brian Wolfe P Minnesota Twins Servite HS (Anaheim,CA) 2 0.00 New Britain (AA)

209. "THE GREAT" Darren Ciraco OF Minnesota Twins Pelham Memorial HS (Pelham,NY) 1 .000 Winston-Salem (A)

239. "THE GREAT" Matt Scanlon IF Minnesota Twins University of Minnesota 2 .000 New Britain (AA)

269. "THE GREAT" Grant Gregg Minnesota Twins McLennan College Chillicothe (Ind.)

299. "THE GREAT" Jim Caine Minnesota Twins St. Charles HS (IL) OUT OF BASEBALL

Jason Stumm, Matt Ginter, Brian West, Rob Purvis, Danny Wright, Bobby Hill, Jon Rauch, Brandon Sloan, Josh Stewart, David Sanders, Mike Patten, Dennis Ulacia, Corwin Malone & Matt Guerrier were the White Sox first 10 rounds picks that year. We've found out this year how hard it is for any player to make it to the big leagues. I forget the number, but I think it is less than 10% of all minor leaguers make it to the majors. All teams have their share of kids that don't make it, not just the Sox.


OK, 10% make it. One would think that number would be slightly better when taking into consideration they have 6 of the first 60 picks. People make mention of the lack of top 10 picks, well instead of having one top 10 they have 6 of the top 60 or so. What you listed with the Twins was a round by round list. They didn't have abunch of early picks. But it is ironic the 89th pick in the draft was Justin Morneau. He's made it while the Sox were wasting time drafting high school pitchers who have shown to be a higher likelihood of getting injured and (in general) make the majors on a much lower basis then college pitcehrs.

So based on what you've shown, the Sx had 10 picks that were flops, well below the 10% rate that you reported. Of course it's a small sample size of only 2 teams. So I'm sure you're going to tell me what later ruond picks in 1999 made the majors for the Sox. While you're at it, what's the percentage for the Sox in the 2000 and 2001 drafts?


Bob

gosox41
08-25-2004, 11:15 PM
You also need to keep in mind that prospects traded for actual MLB players are just as good as drafting an MLB player. For example:

Matt Guerrier = Damaso Marte
Matt Ginter = Timo Perez
and, FWIW
Jon Rauch = Carl Everett

Hill didn't sign with us but, IIRC, was traded to the Bucks for Aramis Ramirez! Stewart and Sanders probably won't amount to anything, but both had a cup of coffee with the Sox and still have a chance to stick at the back of a MLB bullpen.

Finally, unless you draft only position players, injuries to pitchers make the MLB draft even less predictable. Stumm, Purvis, Wright, Rauch, and Malone all have had serious injuries since being drafted.

But how many people have said that Hendry pretty much stuck it to the Pirates in those trades because he was willing to take on money?

In regards to injuries to those pitchers, how much money do you think the Sox spent drafting pitches in the early rounds of the draft only to see them get hurt. I don't know if it's the Sox conditioning program, bad mechancis or what but it's safe to say the Sox haven't had success at drafting and developing pitching in the early (or late) rounds of the draft.



Bob



Bob

gosox41
08-25-2004, 11:22 PM
Thanks Lip, I thought I was being generous with the 10%, but didn't realize it was that low. Further showing that the draft is nothing more than a crap-shoot. Some quick math tells me that a draft of 50 round with 30 teams in any particular year gives you 1500 players drafted and only 15 ever spend a day in the bigs. Obviously that doesn't include the free agent signs after the draft.

That number seems a little low considering there are 750 Major Leaugers. Not counting free agent signings an assuming 1500 total picks in a draft there should be players that were drafted over 50 years ago (when there was no draft) that are in baseball.

And if you count the free agent signings of the amateur players then what you're saying is that more non-drafted players make the major leagues then drafted one's. A significant number more.

If this is true (which I doubt) then why bother spending millions on drafting when 15 out of 1500 are only going to see time in the big leagues? Even if you took the last 20 years of drafts and assumed there were 15 people still playing from each respective year, that only totals 300. So are you saying there are 450 undrafted major leaugers currently playing in the big leagues right now? Now consider that there are a lot less then 15 players still playing in the big leagues from say the 1984 or 1985 drafts. How do you account for the 750 big leaugers on rosters now?


Bob

Fungo
08-26-2004, 09:04 AM
Bob,

I don't think you're looking at the big picture here. You are only focusing on the White Sox, and understandably because it is the team you root for. The fact is that all teams waste tons of money on drafted players that either don't pan out or get injured, but the draft is currently the only way to try and stockpile any kind of talent. I agree with you that the 1% does seem a little low, but I trust Lip as his numbers are pretty much dead on (I have an email in to Jim Callis of Baseball America to verify). You have to consider that non-drafted free agents include players from the Dominican & Mexico as well as players from the US and Puerto Rico and if you look around the leagues there is quite an influx of Latin-born players, possibly explaining the difference in the number of major leaguers (750 - 300 = 450, I don't have the energy to find out if there are 450 Latin-born players in MLB).

To further break down the number & I'll use the 1999 draft as just an example because I went through it yesterday. 1500 players drafted and only 15 will reach the big, that means that of the 30 teams, only 15 may produce a major leaguer. The Twins were on of them with Justin Morneau (who lasted 89 picks in the draft and 28 other teams passed him by, not just the Sox). The Sox produced Matt Ginter, Danny Wright, Jon Rauch, Josh Stewart, David Sanders & Matt Guerrier, all of whom have played at least a day in the bigs. Well above the 1% I'd say. And as Maurice stated, Ginter, Rauch & Guerrier were all parlayed into Perez, Everett & Marte respectively. With pitching as watered down as it is in the league, any rag-arm now has the chance to stick in the big leagues, so when we speak of the "great young arms" of the White Sox farm system, the fact remains that guys like Rocky Biddle, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch, Matt Ginter, Danny Wright and the like have all made it to the majors and actually stuck around. Obviously, not "great", but good enough to be one of the 1%. Believe me, I'm as unhappy with the results as you are & the players I've listed don't exactly make the greatest case, but it just goes to show how hard it is to make it to the major league. The Sox were well above the 1% in terms of producing a major league player.

If any of you know of a website has a team-by-team, year-by-year break down of the draft, I'd love for you to post it here. The one I found is the Baseball Cube @ http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml (http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml)

gosox41
08-26-2004, 09:32 AM
Bob,

I don't think you're looking at the big picture here. You are only focusing on the White Sox, and understandably because it is the team you root for. The fact is that all teams waste tons of money on drafted players that either don't pan out or get injured, but the draft is currently the only way to try and stockpile any kind of talent. I agree with you that the 1% does seem a little low, but I trust Lip as his numbers are pretty much dead on (I have an email in to Jim Callis of Baseball America to verify). You have to consider that non-drafted free agents include players from the Dominican & Mexico as well as players from the US and Puerto Rico and if you look around the leagues there is quite an influx of Latin-born players, possibly explaining the difference in the number of major leaguers (750 - 300 = 450, I don't have the energy to find out if there are 450 Latin-born players in MLB).

To further break down the number & I'll use the 1999 draft as just an example because I went through it yesterday. 1500 players drafted and only 15 will reach the big, that means that of the 30 teams, only 15 may produce a major leaguer. The Twins were on of them with Justin Morneau (who lasted 89 picks in the draft and 28 other teams passed him by, not just the Sox). The Sox produced Matt Ginter, Danny Wright, Jon Rauch, Josh Stewart, David Sanders & Matt Guerrier, all of whom have played at least a day in the bigs. Well above the 1% I'd say. And as Maurice stated, Ginter, Rauch & Guerrier were all parlayed into Perez, Everett & Marte respectively. With pitching as watered down as it is in the league, any rag-arm now has the chance to stick in the big leagues, so when we speak of the "great young arms" of the White Sox farm system, the fact remains that guys like Rocky Biddle, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch, Matt Ginter, Danny Wright and the like have all made it to the majors and actually stuck around. Obviously, not "great", but good enough to be one of the 1%. Believe me, I'm as unhappy with the results as you are & the players I've listed don't exactly make the greatest case, but it just goes to show how hard it is to make it to the major league. The Sox were well above the 1% in terms of producing a major league player.

If any of you know of a website has a team-by-team, year-by-year break down of the draft, I'd love for you to post it here. The one I found is the Baseball Cube @ http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml (http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml)
Even if the Latin Players are undrafted, Lip said exactly:

Fungo:

Baseball American said one per cent of all minor league players ever get to spend a day in the big leagues.

Lip

Most Latin players play in the minors before coming up. And I assume from the above comment that Lip was referring to any players who spend one day in the big leagues. I think that number is wrong but we'll see what Jim Callis says.

Maybe I am overanalyzing the Sox, but assuming a 6 year time frame (before minor leaguers could become free agents) look at all the drafts/signings the Sox had since 1998. Who is making a positive impact on this team besides Buehrle?

Look at the drafts since KW was GM. Four years and who is close to the major leagues?

And I do follow the competition like the Indians and the Twins and they seem to be producing talent. The Sox have nothing close to making an impact unless Borchard decides to turn it around one of these days.

The fact that a lot of the guys you mentioned were brought up and were ineffective could also be a function of bad player development.

Last, if there are that many Latin born players playing in the big leagues, then maybe it makes sense to pursue them more then wasting money on the draft. If it is true that 450 out of 750 big league players are Latin born then maybe the Sox should be focusing most of their attention on them.


Bob


Bob

gosox41
08-26-2004, 09:50 AM
If any of you know of a website has a team-by-team, year-by-year break down of the draft, I'd love for you to post it here. The one I found is the Baseball Cube @ http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml (http://www.sports-wired.com/draft/1999/JuneR/d1.shtml)Fungo, I checked out the website you posted. Here's what I found:

Josh Beckett
Eric Munson
Kyle Snyder
Barry Zito
Ben Sheets
Brett Myers
Larry Bigbie
Matt Ginter
Kurt Ainsworth
Mike MacDougal
Colby Lewis
Jerome Williams
Jimmy Gobble
Case FOssum
Myke Bynum
Brian Roberts
Carl Crawford
Rob Bowen
Brandon Phillips
Wes Overmueller
Ryan Ludwick
Ben Broussard
Bobby Hill
John Lackey
Dough Waechter
Justin Morneau
Josh Bard
Jon Rauch

These 28 guys were taken in the first 100 picks of the draft and all have spend at least one day in the majors. This is based on 2003 season totals so the number may have increased.

So this tells me a couple of things:
1. The 1% rule is way off or it doesn't apply to drafted players.
2. If Lip's 1% rule is true, then this must have been a truly deep draft. I mean 27 guys out of the first 100 made the big leagues. That's almost double the rate, and it's only been 4 years since this was taken. I didn't have time to check out the other 1400 players, but I suspect that there were others. Of course as the draft gets later and later the rate of players making it is bound to fall.
3. The Sox have 3 names on the list. Matt Ginter, Rauch, and Bobby Hill. They didn't sign Hill. And Ginter is probably going to be a journeyman. Only one of these guys (Rauch) has any chance to be anything good. That's a good rate for the first 6 picks, but none of these guys are even with the organization anymore. They amy have been traded for Everett and Perez, but wouldn't have been nice to see at least one of them pan out to adequately fill the 5th starter spot?


Bob

Hangar18
08-26-2004, 10:09 AM
But how many people have said that Hendry pretty much stuck it to the Pirates in those trades because he was willing to take on money?
Bob
Thats the Pirates Fault, and MLBs fault for not Addressing these very serious Revenue Issues years ago. Now, youve got perennial Losers like the cubs
with good players (everyone elses that is) because theyre richer? hahahah.
this sports going down the tubes. If the Pirates are willing to Sacrifice
their Present (Ramirez/Lieber/Lofton for ex.) AND their Future (Hill?)
then Fold them. They have no business in the majors, esp if theyre gonna
Seriously Affect the Pennant Races down the stretch by running AAA players out there

Fungo
08-26-2004, 10:19 AM
I know what Lip said and I understand that these players also play in the minor leagues, I never said they went straight to the bigs. It's just strength in numbers. So if there are 500 undrafted free agents added to the 1500 drafted players, then 20 of them make the majors. There are obvious exceptions like Ichiro, Shingo (& I'm not sure if Contreras played in the minors) that went straight to the big league clubs. The problem is that the Sox have been a mediocre ballclub during the span you are referring and often picking in the middle of the pack. The twins (1998-2000) and indians (2002) and even the tigers (1998-2003) have been bad in that span and have either drafted higher or made significant trades. The indians roster is made up of plenty of guys that their system didn't produce(Hafner-Texas, Brousard-Cinncinati, Cliff Lee-Montreal, Westbrook-Colorado CoCo Crisp-St. Louis, Lawton-Twins) the tigers got Bonderman & Carlos Pena from the A's, Maroth-Boston, and the twins have Hunter, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, LeCroy & Jones that were all high draft picks.

Rowand is a guy who comes to mind that has contributed since '98. Kip Wells is a starter for the Pirates, as is Josh Fogg. I agree, it's a shame thses guys didn't pan out for us, but they were used in trades that many thought were going to make us better.



John:



About 10-15 years ago we did a story, and the number we came up with was 10.6%. The 1% figure is much too low.



--Jim Callis

We stand corrected.

voodoochile
08-26-2004, 10:25 AM
I know what Lip said and I understand that these players also play in the minor leagues, I never said they went straight to the bigs. It's just strength in numbers. So if there are 500 undrafted free agents added to the 1500 drafted players, then 20 of them make the majors. There are obvious exceptions like Ichiro, Shingo (& I'm not sure if Contreras played in the minors) that went straight to the big league clubs. The problem is that the Sox have been a mediocre ballclub during the span you are referring and often picking in the middle of the pack. The twins (1998-2000) and indians (2002) and even the tigers (1998-2003) have been bad in that span and have either drafted higher or made significant trades. The indians roster is made up of plenty of guys that their system didn't produce(Hafner-Texas, Brousard-Cinncinati, Cliff Lee-Montreal, Westbrook-Colorado CoCo Crisp-St. Louis, Lawton-Twins) the tigers got Bonderman & Carlos Pena from the A's, Maroth-Boston, and the twins have Hunter, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, LeCroy & Jones that were all high draft picks.

Rowand is a guy who comes to mind that has contributed since '98. Kip Wells is a starter for the Pirates, as is Josh Fogg. I agree, it's a shame thses guys didn't pan out for us, but they were used in trades that many thought were going to make us better.



We stand corrected.


Even Lip was saying 10% a while ago. I wonder if that was a typo. Haven't read the whole thread, so I don't know. 1% is obviously too low as that would be only one player every 2-3 years for most teams and that wouldn't be enough to make up for the retiring/cut players let alone the ones of mediocre talent...

Fungo
08-26-2004, 10:37 AM
Fungo, I checked out the website you posted. Here's what I found:

Josh Beckett
Eric Munson
Kyle Snyder
Barry Zito
Ben Sheets
Brett Myers
Larry Bigbie
Matt Ginter
Kurt Ainsworth
Mike MacDougal
Colby Lewis
Jerome Williams
Jimmy Gobble
Case FOssum
Myke Bynum
Brian Roberts
Carl Crawford
Rob Bowen
Brandon Phillips
Wes Overmueller
Ryan Ludwick
Ben Broussard
Bobby Hill
John Lackey
Dough Waechter
Justin Morneau
Josh Bard
Jon Rauch

These 28 guys were taken in the first 100 picks of the draft and all have spend at least one day in the majors. This is based on 2003 season totals so the number may have increased.

So this tells me a couple of things:
1. The 1% rule is way off or it doesn't apply to drafted players.
2. If Lip's 1% rule is true, then this must have been a truly deep draft. I mean 27 guys out of the first 100 made the big leagues. That's almost double the rate, and it's only been 4 years since this was taken. I didn't have time to check out the other 1400 players, but I suspect that there were others. Of course as the draft gets later and later the rate of players making it is bound to fall.
3. The Sox have 3 names on the list. Matt Ginter, Rauch, and Bobby Hill. They didn't sign Hill. And Ginter is probably going to be a journeyman. Only one of these guys (Rauch) has any chance to be anything good. That's a good rate for the first 6 picks, but none of these guys are even with the organization anymore. They amy have been traded for Everett and Perez, but wouldn't have been nice to see at least one of them pan out to adequately fill the 5th starter spot?


BobSo the dummys running the twins selected B.J. Garbe & Rob Bowen before...
Kyle Snyder
Barry Zito
Ben Sheets
Brett Myers
Larry Bigbie
Matt Ginter
Kurt Ainsworth
Mike MacDougal
Colby Lewis
Jerome Williams
Jimmy Gobble
Case Fossum
Myke Bynum
Brian Roberts
Carl Crawford
Rob Bowen
Brandon Phillips
Wes Overmueller
Ryan Ludwick
Ben Broussard
Bobby Hill
John Lackey
Dough Waechter

The Sox on the other hand, didn't have the chance to draft Zito or Sheets, because they were drafted before the Sox pick.

Mark Buehrle lasted 1139 pick in the 1998 draft (38th round). The draft is an in-exact science. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss. Scouts and teams have to go on tools and how players project. 30 teams with rosters of 25 guys gives you 750 best of the best players with at least 1500 players coming into the system each year. So many minor leaguers come and go it's ridiculous.

gosox41
08-26-2004, 10:41 AM
Rowand is a guy who comes to mind that has contributed since '98. Kip Wells is a starter for the Pirates, as is Josh Fogg. I agree, it's a shame thses guys didn't pan out for us, but they were used in trades that many thought were going to make us better.



We stand corrected.


Don't get me started on KW's bad trades. So he basically traded 2/3 of the major leaguers the 1998 draft produced for Todd RItchie.

Also, that 10.6% number doesn't make the Sox look too good when it comes to drafting and developing talent. Sure having no top 10 picks hurts, but it's not like the Sox haven't had the chance to select 6 of the first 60 or so. Didn't they have 5 early picks this season?

My point is the Sox seem to be doing worse then the major league average in producing talent that even makes it to the big leagues let alone becomes successful. This number should be better based on the fact that the Sox have made pitching a focus in drafts and for the last few seasons have lacked pitching in the major league level.

All I'm saying something needs to be changed. I mentioned taking no pitchers in the first 5 rounds or so of the draft. Maybe extreme. But the amount of money spend on their top pitching picks seems to be wasted. Might as well spend the money on a hitter who may be easier to judge in talent or even adding all that first round money to the major league payroll. Lord knows the Sox inability to produce major league talent has left this team with a lot of gaping holes.

Also, Callis mentioned that study was done 10-15 years ago. Wonder what it would be today? My guess is higher because as salaries jumped in the '90's many teams were forced to rush up players that weren't necessarily ready to be in the majors. This could have screwed up their development, thus making their stay in the majors shorter, or worse could have caused increased injury in young players.

Anyone know of a study done in the last couple of years on this?


Bob

gosox41
08-26-2004, 10:47 AM
So the dummys running the twins selected B.J. Garbe & Rob Bowen before...
Kyle Snyder
Barry Zito
Ben Sheets
Brett Myers
Larry Bigbie
Matt Ginter
Kurt Ainsworth
Mike MacDougal
Colby Lewis
Jerome Williams
Jimmy Gobble
Case Fossum
Myke Bynum
Brian Roberts
Carl Crawford
Rob Bowen
Brandon Phillips
Wes Overmueller
Ryan Ludwick
Ben Broussard
Bobby Hill
John Lackey
Dough Waechter

The Sox on the other hand, didn't have the chance to draft Zito or Sheets, because they were drafted before te Sox pick.

Mark Buehrle lasted 1139 pick in the 1998 draft (38th round). The draft is an in-exact science. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss. Scouts and teams have to go on tools and how players project. 30 teams with rosters of 25 guys gives you 750 best of the best players with at least 1500 players coming into the system each year. So many minor leaguers come and go it's ridiculous.
You're right drafting is an inexact science. And guys like Beane get ripped on for trying to make the odds of it being a success better. They've doen a better job then KW has at that.

As for the Twins, like you said the draft is an inexact science. But one more factor may play a role here. I don't recall what was going on with the 1999 draft in terms of what players were asking, but maybe the Twins took they guys they did because of their signability. They are a small market team.


They passed up on Prior for the same reason. Mauer may still be a great player, but I thought the obvious pick in that draft was Mark Prior in terms of talent. Does this make the Twins bad because their scouts and GM missed out on Prior. Does that mean they didn't think he was all that good. Or was it becuase the Twins came out and said they couldn't afford the guy. Maybe they couldn't afford Sheets or Zito either. Not being privy to the negotiations, I don't know.


Bob

Fungo
08-26-2004, 11:14 AM
I went through the entire 50 rounds of the 1999 draft and Justin Morneau was the only significant major leaguer the twins produced & this is still one his first year, so who knows what will happen with him. To say the Sox are below the average in terms of producing major league ballplayers may be somewhat accurate, the twins, at least in that particular year were absolutely horrible. Signability is a huge factor in the baseball draft, more-so than any other sport. Teams like Atlanta have good farm systems even though they draft in the lower part of the draft because of playoff income. The Sox on the other hand don't have the attendance if their teams are bad and save 2000 didn't have any playoff income to work with. I think the Sox have done a decent job in the past 2 years with their pick, especially the second round, picking guys who were projected 1st rounders, but fell for whatever reason. You can't help but be impressed with Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez. Our scouting department, IMO, is not to blame. The players we have drafted high were on every teams (and every major publications) radar screens as prospects. I don't know who the blame goes to, player development in the minor leagues maybe? We've seen guys who've dominated down in AAA, but the jump from there to the majors in huge for our guys. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.

gosox41
08-26-2004, 12:04 PM
. I don't know who the blame goes to, player development in the minor leagues maybe? We've seen guys who've dominated down in AAA, but the jump from there to the majors in huge for our guys. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.


I think player development is a lot of it. Look at all the injuries the Sox had to pitching prospects, especially top picks.

I also think (and yes this is Billy Beanish) that not drafting high school pitchers at all is a good idea. Way too much risk with little reward.

KW needs to step back and figure out what other organizations are doing correctly and emulate them Maybe this new wave of prospects will amount to something. I certainly hope so for the sake of seeing the Sox win. But also, all these KW supporters keep making excuses for him. Maybe they'll finally be right about KW developing propects into productive and useful major leaguers. I certainly hope so because they're running out of reasons to support this guy, unless finishing .500 satisfies them.


Bob

Randar68
08-26-2004, 12:18 PM
Maybe they'll finally be right about KW developing propects into productive and useful major leaguers. I certainly hope so because they're running out of reasons to support this guy, unless finishing .500 satisfies them.

There are many reasons to support KW and there are certainly reasons some people don't like him. However, We're not going to list them all again, because you only choose to recognize the negative half and discount out of hand the other.

gosox41
08-26-2004, 01:50 PM
There are many reasons to support KW and there are certainly reasons some people don't like him. However, We're not going to list them all again, because you only choose to recognize the negative half and discount out of hand the other.
Not true. I've given him a fair shot. I gave him credit for the Conteras trade and the Uribe trade anf other trades I felt were decent. I fhe makes good move I say so if he doesn't I'll rip it.

But do you think the Sox were going to win this division with Magglio and Frank healthy the whole season?

It's hard to tell. One thing these injuries have shown us is just how little depth the Sox have. It's one thing to lose your #3 and #4 hitters and not make the playoffs. It's another to lose your top hitters and complete fall apart. So much for that so-called easy schedule in August that the Sox were going to take advantage of.



Bob

Fungo
08-26-2004, 02:02 PM
I think player development is a lot of it. Look at all the injuries the Sox had to pitching prospects, especially top picks.

I also think (and yes this is Billy Beanish) that not drafting high school pitchers at all is a good idea. Way too much risk with little reward.

KW needs to step back and figure out what other organizations are doing correctly and emulate them Maybe this new wave of prospects will amount to something. I certainly hope so for the sake of seeing the Sox win. But also, all these KW supporters keep making excuses for him. Maybe they'll finally be right about KW developing propects into productive and useful major leaguers. I certainly hope so because they're running out of reasons to support this guy, unless finishing .500 satisfies them.


BobFunny you mention that, becuase the same Jim Callis wrote a recent article tackling that very subject (well HS RHP). Again, Jim Callis or anyone else from Baseball America is not the end-all, be-all opinion of the baseball world, but certainly someone I respect. Here is a small clip from the pay portion of Baseball America...


In a study of the first 10 rounds of the 1990-97 drafts last year, I found that regardless of round or position, high schools held their own versus colleges in terms of producing talent. The colleges' only pronounced edge came in the number of cup-of-coffee players who reached the majors. With significant players, the two crops were virtually even, and high schools generated more star-caliber talent (4.3 to 2.3 percent).

Don't just take my word for it, however. A club official recently examined the performance of all pitchers drafted in the first round from 1990-98 and sent me the results--which reinforced mine.

Numbers Don't Lie

Fifty righthanders were drafted and signed out of colleges in the first round, compared to 35 from the prep ranks. Forty-one (82 percent) of the college pitchers reached the majors, while 25 (71 percent) of the high schoolers made it to the top.

Filter out the fringe players, and high school righthanders have a slightly better chance of having a significant career. That's not a misprint. Eleven (31 percent) of the high schoolers became average or better major leaguers, as opposed to 15 (30 percent) of the collegians.

Colleges did yield more above-average righthanders, with five (10 percent): Billy Koch (OK, the club official might have been feeling a bit charitable), Brad Lidge, Matt Morris, Mike Mussina and Aaron Sele. Just two high schoolers (6 percent) became stars, though Kerry Wood and Roy Halladay may accomplish more than anyone in the college group with the possible exception of Mussina.

Teams do win with stars, but how big is the difference? If a club decided to take a college righty in the first round every year, it would come up with an additional blue-chip pitcher once every 25 years than if it went with a prep righthander each time.

For subscribers, here is the link to the article...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/columnists2004/040713callis.html

Randar68
08-26-2004, 03:09 PM
But do you think the Sox were going to win this division with Magglio and Frank healthy the whole season?

Yes, and by no slim margin. You lost 2 35+ HR bats with a combined .400 OBP in the middle of your line-up. There is no way to replace that. Other than the last 8-10 games, the pitching has been good, with the offense struggling.

You move everyone down a spot in the order into their natural roles and you put 2 of the most respected and feared hitters in the game in the middle of your line-up?

No question I thought they would have/should have won. The team was built around those 2 players. You take the teams who are built around pitching and take away their 2 best pitcher or teams built on offense and take their 2 best players out, and those teams won't do a damned thing. Could we have withstood losing Konerko/Lee? I find it highly more likely than losing Frank and Maggs.

Daver
08-26-2004, 04:13 PM
They passed up on Prior for the same reason. Mauer may still be a great player, but I thought the obvious pick in that draft was Mark Prior in terms of talent. Does this make the Twins bad because their scouts and GM missed out on Prior. Does that mean they didn't think he was all that good. Or was it becuase the Twins came out and said they couldn't afford the guy. Maybe they couldn't afford Sheets or Zito either. Not being privy to the negotiations, I don't know.


Bob
Prior's agent informed the Twins before the draft that he would not sign if they drafted him. They chose not to waste their first pick on a holdout.

Flight #24
08-26-2004, 04:13 PM
Yes, and by no slim margin. You lost 2 35+ HR bats with a combined .400 OBP in the middle of your line-up. There is no way to replace that. Other than the last 8-10 games, the pitching has been good, with the offense struggling.

You move everyone down a spot in the order into their natural roles and you put 2 of the most respected and feared hitters in the game in the middle of your line-up?

No question I thought they would have/should have won. The team was built around those 2 players. You take the teams who are built around pitching and take away their 2 best pitcher or teams built on offense and take their 2 best players out, and those teams won't do a damned thing. Could we have withstood losing Konerko/Lee? I find it highly more likely than losing Frank and Maggs.
You tell 'em Randar. They've lost something like 15 games since the break by 1 or 2 runs. Adding Frank & Maggs instead of Gload/Perez/Everett/Borchard turns that around to something a lot closer to 10-5 than 0-15. That right there means first place.

Now add in some of the other games we'd have won.......It's not that complicated folks.

balke
08-26-2004, 04:13 PM
Prior's agent informed the Twins before the draft that he would not sign if they drafted him. They chose not to waste their first pick on a holdout.
He speaketh the tooth.

balke
08-26-2004, 04:15 PM
You tell 'em Randar. They've lost something like 15 games since the break by 1 or 2 runs. Adding Frank & Maggs instead of Gload/Perez/Everett/Borchard turns that around to something a lot closer to 10-5 than 0-15. That right there means first place.

Now add in some of the other games we'd have won.......It's not that complicated folks.
equally as true, KW would've had more room in the order, and more trade bait to find us a bullpen/#5 guy.

gosox41
08-27-2004, 07:49 AM
Funny you mention that, becuase the same Jim Callis wrote a recent article tackling that very subject (well HS RHP). Again, Jim Callis or anyone else from Baseball America is not the end-all, be-all opinion of the baseball world, but certainly someone I respect. Here is a small clip from the pay portion of Baseball America...
For subscribers, here is the link to the article...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/columnists2004/040713callis.html
Interesting I didn't realize that. It always seems that HS pitchers are more susceptible to injury. One other advantage of college pitchers is that in general they are more mature (physcially and emotionally) and will probably get to the majors faster. Of course it's not true in all cases.

I just wish it would work out for the Sox. They keep focusing on pitching and outside of Buehrle who was a 38th round pick (when things really become a crapshoot) they have nothing to show. They can't even get someone to fill the 5th starter spot let alone be above average or a stud.



Bob

jeremyb1
08-27-2004, 10:52 PM
Well, I don't think anyone has actually answered the question that started this thread. The top ten prospects KW has traded the last couple seasons (excluding Olivo since he was no longer a prospect) are in my opinion:

Ring
Rupe
Webster
Reed
Morse
Rauch
Majewski
Valentine
Francisco
Hummel

At a minimum Rupe, Webster, Reed, Morse, and Francisco wouldn't have reasonably been expected to reach the majors at this point by anyone. Ring had an early ETA because he advanced quickly early on and he's a reliever. Rauch has already pitched in the majors and hasn't been with his new team long enough to make any impact. The same is true for Majewski since he was just recently traded. The only players who you can start to form a solid opinion of are perhaps Valentine and Hummel but they are on the bottom end of the top ten list. The overwhelming answer in my opinion to the question is that if you're going to insist on evaluating the quality of KWs moves with 20/20 hindsight based on the careers of the prospects he dealt, it's way to early to come to any conclusions. KW has not dodged many of the bullets yet.

Lem_Siddons
08-28-2004, 05:20 PM
What is more of a shock is circa 2000 we had the most highly touted farm system for starting pitching. There was even talk that there would not be enough ML slots to contain them all blah blah blah. Slowly every one is circling the giant toilet.

I think position in the draft in baseball is almost meaningless. I'd love to see a chart of HoF players and the rounds they were drafted. Even servicable players all seem to be found in the middle rounds. With the odds so long on a guy ever showering at the Cell or Yankee Stadium, who cares about draft picks or prospects?

Didn't Lasorda get boos for drafting his relative? A certain Mike Piazza?

Tragg
08-28-2004, 06:30 PM
At least williams is doing something with the prospects, instead of letting them rot and fizzle out.
A better question might be why have we produced so few major league players?

And Flight, saying we'd be in first with frank and maggs is a huge projection, and one I seriously doubt.

MisterB
08-28-2004, 06:53 PM
What is more of a shock is circa 2000 we had the most highly touted farm system for starting pitching. There was even talk that there would not be enough ML slots to contain them all blah blah blah. Slowly every one is circling the giant toilet.

I think position in the draft in baseball is almost meaningless. I'd love to see a chart of HoF players and the rounds they were drafted. Even servicable players all seem to be found in the middle rounds. With the odds so long on a guy ever showering at the Cell or Yankee Stadium, who cares about draft picks or prospects?

Didn't Lasorda get boos for drafting his relative? A certain Mike Piazza?You asked...

Eddie Murray - 3rd Round, 1972
Gary Carter - 3rd, '72
Ozzie Smith - 4th, '77
Dave Winfield - 1st, '73 (4th overall)
Kirby Puckett - 1st, '82 (3rd overall)
Carlton Fisk - 1st, '67 (4th overall)
Nolan Ryan - 12th, '65
George Brett - 2nd, '71
Robin Yount - 1st, '73 (3rd overall)
Mike Schmidt - 2nd, '71
Reggie Jackson - 1st, '66 (2nd overall)
Tom Seaver - unsigned - amateur FA
Johnny Bench - 2nd, '65

All other HoF players were signed before the first draft in June of '65.

Flight #24
08-28-2004, 09:41 PM
And Flight, saying we'd be in first with frank and maggs is a huge projection, and one I seriously doubt.
I base it on 1 simple fact: Sox have lost 15 games by 1 or 2 runs since the both went down. I think subbing those 2 for Everett/Gload/Perez/Borchard easily cuts that at least in half. 9 of those are by 1 run you don't think that adding in 2 allstar hitters gets you at least an average of 1 run/game? Factor in the impact on the other guys (i.e. Valentin batting with more guys on base = better #s, Willie batting in front of Frank/Maggs = better #s) as well as the ability to trade to fill other holes (5th starter, bullpen) instead of backstopping the injuries and I actually think it's conservative to say we'd be tied for the division.

Tragg
08-28-2004, 11:48 PM
Didn't Lasorda get boos for drafting his relative? A certain Mike Piazza?
Yes- but it worked.

Yet, when Ron Scheuler took a similar shot when he drafted his daughter, Sox fans lampooned him- could have had our own Piazza.

Tragg
08-28-2004, 11:50 PM
I base it on 1 simple fact: Sox have lost 15 games by 1 or 2 runs since the both went down. I think subbing those 2 for Everett/Gload/Perez/Borchard easily cuts that at least in half. 9 of those are by 1 run you don't think that adding in 2 allstar hitters gets you at least an average of 1 run/game? Factor in the impact on the other guys (i.e. Valentin batting with more guys on base = better #s, Willie batting in front of Frank/Maggs = better #s) as well as the ability to trade to fill other holes (5th starter, bullpen) instead of backstopping the injuries and I actually think it's conservative to say we'd be tied for the division.Weren't we overachieving in the 1 run game category in the first half of the season- some of it might be the law of averages settling in.
Now we should have been able to win this division with our full team- but I don't think we would have.

mdep524
08-29-2004, 12:09 AM
I base it on 1 simple fact: Sox have lost 15 games by 1 or 2 runs since the both went down. I think subbing those 2 for Everett/Gload/Perez/Borchard easily cuts that at least in half. 9 of those are by 1 run you don't think that adding in 2 allstar hitters gets you at least an average of 1 run/game? Factor in the impact on the other guys (i.e. Valentin batting with more guys on base = better #s, Willie batting in front of Frank/Maggs = better #s) as well as the ability to trade to fill other holes (5th starter, bullpen) instead of backstopping the injuries and I actually think it's conservative to say we'd be tied for the division.
I think your logic is good, Flight. However, at the fundamental level this team's core- Konerko, Lee, Thomas and Ordonez- are, like it or not, underacheivers as teammates. I think they would have hung with the Twins, but ultimately faded down the stretch.

That's why this Sox team, while tantalizingly talented, needs to be overhauled this off season. The injuries are a convenient reason (not excuse, reason) for the underacheivement, but the reality is that for the past 4 years + a playoff series this team has proven to under-acheive when the pressure is on and things are expected of them.

ma-gaga
08-29-2004, 12:12 AM
Weren't we overachieving in the 1 run game category in the first half of the season- some of it might be the law of averages settling in.
Now we should have been able to win this division with our full team- but I don't think we would have.
The "one run" game being won by "luck" is a myth. I don't know how to explain it, but I think that you are hitting on it. They've studied this, but I bet there's minor alterations to the lineups, like the best two players being out, which may not be caught in the broad general run differential analysis.

Hmm... :gulp:

balke
08-29-2004, 01:10 AM
Aprils winning percentage W/ Dan wright pitching: .619
May's w/ cotts pitching no Valentin for a few weeks: .571
June 7 Maggs injured. June 26th Shoney to DL : .480
July 8-9 Maggs and shoney "back", 11th Frank to DL 23rd Maggs to dL.
July Pct : .407
August shoney out Maggs out Frank out 4-man rotation: .400
Last 7 Days: .286

Then the whole trading for bullpen help instead of Everett cause you have players... yada yada yada.

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=486997#post486997


Remember when it wasn't "if" playoffs, it was "How Deep?"???? If you say you don't, you're either utterly pessimistic, or lying.

Lip Man 1
08-29-2004, 12:36 PM
The Sox started the year going 11-1 in one run games at this moment they are now 22-17.

I remember reading in the Tribune, that the last time the Sox started a season going 11-1 in that category was back in the 40's, they wound up ending the year with a losing record.

Deja vu all over again?

Lip

Fungo
09-01-2004, 09:03 AM
5. "THE GREAT" B.J. Garbe OF Minnesota Twins Moses Lake HS (WA) 17 .217 New Britain (AA)
The Minnesota Twins acquired C Pat Borders from the Mariners in exchange for OF B.J. Garbe.


The fifth overall pick in the 1999 draft who was signed with what was then a club-record $2.75 million bonus, Garbe never panned out to projections. The 23-year-old was batting .201 this season at Double-A New Britain and was a career .231 hitter in six minor league seasons.