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View Full Version : Kenny Williams makes bad trades?


Aidan
08-08-2004, 05:20 PM
Esteban Loiaza FOR Jose Contreras WITH Steinbrenner paying a portion of Jose's contract.

'NUFF SAID!

OEO Magglio
08-08-2004, 05:21 PM
Ok, I love this trade, I think it's an absolute steal. However don't judge it on 2 starts, please.

MRKARNO
08-08-2004, 05:22 PM
Don't forget the "throw-in" Ben Davis in the terrible Freddy Garcia deal.

JRIG
08-08-2004, 05:22 PM
Esteban Loiaza FOR Jose Contreras WITH Steinbrenner paying a portion of Jose's contract.

'NUFF SAID!
Since we're on the hook for $12 milion over the next two years, can we at least wait more than 2 starts before we declare this a success?

And by the way, when you see Carlos Beltran patrolling the outfield in Yankee Pinstripes next season, you can thank KW for picking up Contreras' contract and allowing them some more flexinility in signing Beltran.

MRKARNO
08-08-2004, 05:22 PM
And by the way, when you see Carlos Beltran patrolling the outfield in Yankee Pinstripes next season, you can thank KW for picking up Contreras' contract and allowing them some more flexinility in signing Beltran.
They would have found a way to sign him regardless.

Aidan
08-08-2004, 05:26 PM
They would have found a way to sign him regardless.Yep. The Yankees could've kept Contreras AND still been able to pay Carlos Beltran. It's not like we could've afforded Beltran anyways, so who cares?

And what the hell is wrong with paying a pitcher like Contreras $12 million for 2 years? That isn't that much money for a good starting pitcher.
Don't forget the "throw-in" Ben Davis in the terrible Freddy Garcia deal. I will never forget about Big Ben! :supernana:

JRIG
08-08-2004, 05:26 PM
They would have found a way to sign him regardless.
I don't doubt that much. George probably would have found a way. But this made it a virtual certainty.

Aidan
08-08-2004, 05:27 PM
I don't doubt that much. George probably would have found a way. But this made it a virtual certainty.Once again, who cares? Do you really think we had a shot at Beltran? Better than him going to the Cubs, not that they would pay him either. You're just looking for something negative to say about the trade at this point. :rolleyes:

jabrch
08-08-2004, 05:54 PM
Since we're on the hook for $12 milion over the next two years, can we at least wait more than 2 starts before we declare this a success?

And by the way, when you see Carlos Beltran patrolling the outfield in Yankee Pinstripes next season, you can thank KW for picking up Contreras' contract and allowing them some more flexinility in signing Beltran.

I agree with your first point - that we could wait longer than two starts. (although I am damn impressed by what I have seen so far). However, your second point implies that somehow Steinbrenner has reached a spending limit - and that the ability to add Beltran would have been hindered by having Contreras, or that Loaiza, who Steinbrenner clearly intends on resigning, will cost so much singificantly less than the 6mm that we are paying Contreras that it would better enable him to get Beltran. I think there is a flaw in that logic somewhere.

That said, Contreras looks very good after two starts. Garcia looks very good after 6 weeks. Davis has been better than anyone expected - meanwhile Miggy has failed to perform at that same level. Reed hasn't been a worldbeater in Tacoma. But I do agree - let's let more time pass to place final evaluations on those deals.

habibharu
08-08-2004, 05:58 PM
relax, its only been two starts! and davis has been good for a week. so what? they got no pressure on them!

CWSGuy406
08-08-2004, 06:23 PM
I totally agree with JRIG here. I love the trade - and personally think it will work out in our favor in the future - but let's wait more than two starts to start bragging about it.

As for the topic title: Yes, Kenny makes bad trades. But so does every other GM in baseball.

OEO Magglio
08-08-2004, 06:25 PM
relax, its only been two starts! and davis has been good for a week. so what? they got no pressure on them!You honestly want Kenny's acquisitions to do bad, don't you?

CWSGuy406
08-08-2004, 06:28 PM
relax, its only been two starts! and davis has been good for a week. so what? they got no pressure on them!
Yeah - absolutely no pressure at all. Contreras going up against the best offense in the AL, two outs and Davis down in the count battling back, trying to drive in the winning run. No pressure at all.

At least the proclaimed KW haters are usually rational about the trades. Meanwhile - if Kenny traded a bag of balls for Carlos Beltran, you'd argue that he shouldn't have given up the bag. Give it a friggin' rest already...

batmanZoSo
08-08-2004, 06:37 PM
Yep. The Yankees could've kept Contreras AND still been able to pay Carlos (http://www.adsrve.com/linkredirect.php?h=502,28180399,whitesoxinteractiv e.com,0) Beltran. It's not like we could've afforded Beltran anyways, so who cares?

And what the hell is wrong with paying a pitcher like Contreras $12 million (http://www.adsrve.com/linkredirect.php?h=528,28180399,whitesoxinteractiv e.com,0) for 2 years? That isn't that much money for a good starting pitcher.
I will never forget about Big Ben! :supernana:
It's horribly too early to judge anything, but Contreras has the stuff to be awesome. His two starts with us he's been great and shouldn't have given up anything today. I remember the Orioles/Cuba exhibition game in 99 where he just mowed a pretty fearsome O's lineup down with little effort. I never realized was in fact him until that Sun-Times article a week ago happened to mention it. I was like wow, this guy really does have something. That was him? Needless to say, if this is the real Jose Contreras or close to it, we're set as far as starters go. Although I will reserve my ultimate judgement for a later date and also reserve my right to curse his very name :D:

pudge
08-08-2004, 08:37 PM
Esteban Loiaza FOR Jose Contreras WITH Steinbrenner paying a portion of Jose's contract.

'NUFF SAID!
Let's not be ignorant and wait and see what Contreras does over the long term. I liked the deal when it happened, but gloating after one good game is assinine.

DVsoxfan
08-08-2004, 08:40 PM
KW and his scouts certainly have an eye for talent.

jeremyb1
08-08-2004, 10:43 PM
Don't forget the "throw-in" Ben Davis in the terrible Freddy Garcia deal.

He was a throw in there's no other way to define him. A throw in is a player included a deal that doesn't make or break the deal. If you think that KW would've balked at the deal if another catcher was somehow included (Wilson, a three way trade, etc.) or that Davis' inclusion gave Bavasi any serious reservations about the deal you've completely lost touch with reality.
I'm a fan of good coaching and I believe Greg Walker is a good hitting coach. I also believe that when player show promise early on as Davis did, that ability doesn't easily dissapear and for those reasons he could be a solid contributor in the future. That said, please let's not kid ourselves. Davis was a 27 year old relegated to the minor leagues after parts of 6 seasons (!) in the minors because he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. He's only had 41 plate apperances with the club (hardly enough to make a determination on a player), in those 41 plate apperances he has failed to draw one walk, and at the completion of the deal most posters on this board talked mad trash about Davis and IIRC, not one poster defended him. It doesn't take an "eye for talent" to see some ability in a fomer number one draft pick that was projected as an All-Star calliber major league player. I'm certainly capable of it and the last thing I profess to be is someone with scouting capabilities. Please don't be so wish washy as to do a complete 180 and argue KW stole Davis based on 41 plate appearances when you didn't applaud his acquisition WHEN THE DEAL WAS MADE.

Aidan
08-08-2004, 10:45 PM
Let's not be ignorant and wait and see what Contreras does over the long term. I liked the deal when it happened, but gloating after one good game is assinine.It's been 2 good games for Contreras in a White Sox uniform. In his first start for the White Sox he allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings.

Flight #24
08-09-2004, 06:46 AM
He was a throw in there's no other way to define him. A throw in is a player included a deal that doesn't make or break the deal. If you think that KW would've balked at the deal if another catcher was somehow included (Wilson, a three way trade, etc.) or that Davis' inclusion gave Bavasi any serious reservations about the deal you've completely lost touch with reality.
I'm a fan of good coaching and I believe Greg Walker is a good hitting coach. I also believe that when player show promise early on as Davis did, that ability doesn't easily dissapear and for those reasons he could be a solid contributor in the future. That said, please let's not kid ourselves. Davis was a 27 year old relegated to the minor leagues after parts of 6 seasons (!) in the minors because he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. He's only had 41 plate apperances with the club (hardly enough to make a determination on a player), in those 41 plate apperances he has failed to draw one walk, and at the completion of the deal most posters on this board talked mad trash about Davis and IIRC, not one poster defended him. It doesn't take an "eye for talent" to see some ability in a fomer number one draft pick that was projected as an All-Star calliber major league player. I'm certainly capable of it and the last thing I profess to be is someone with scouting capabilities. Please don't be so wish washy as to do a complete 180 and argue KW stole Davis based on 41 plate appearances when you didn't applaud his acquisition WHEN THE DEAL WAS MADE.
I'm not here to say that Davis is the 2d coming of IRod, but uf KW did indeed see something that he thought Soc coaches could get out of Davis that M's couldn't and therefor got him cheap (despite him not being a deal-breaker), that's kudos to him. Davis' being a former 1st rounder doesnt devalue that, because if it were that easy, someone else would have given the Ms something of value for him.

ChiSoxBobette
08-09-2004, 08:17 AM
Since we're on the hook for $12 milion over the next two years, can we at least wait more than 2 starts before we declare this a success?

And by the way, when you see Carlos Beltran patrolling the outfield in Yankee Pinstripes next season, you can thank KW for picking up Contreras' contract and allowing them some more flexinility in signing Beltran.
God you people are obsessed with carlos beltran. I don't see the guy doing anything that great for the Astros and I don't think he's playing any better in the field or hitting than Aaron Rowand so if Aaron comes back next year, I know everyone wants us to trade the guy, I could careless where Carlos Beltran is.

Mickster
08-09-2004, 08:36 AM
Let's not be ignorant and wait and see what Contreras does over the long term. I liked the deal when it happened, but gloating after one good game is assinine.
It's clear that Contreras has much better stuff than not only Loaiza, but clearly most of the MLB pitchers out there. Does he have faults? Sure. Are the faults that he has "fixable"? I think so. I think that we will see a different Contreras next year as he settles down and spends a full spring training with Cooper. He clearly has the stuff to be a #1. Taking him away from the NY media is a huge plus. JMHO.

misty60481
08-09-2004, 09:07 AM
I agree with ChiSoxBob we have got a good centerfielder in Aaron forget about Beltran and use the extra 12 or 14 million it would cost to sign him on Maggs or improve the pitching and mid infield..

gosox41
08-09-2004, 10:28 AM
I'm not here to say that Davis is the 2d coming of IRod, but uf KW did indeed see something that he thought Soc coaches could get out of Davis that M's couldn't and therefor got him cheap (despite him not being a deal-breaker), that's kudos to him. Davis' being a former 1st rounder doesnt devalue that, because if it were that easy, someone else would have given the Ms something of value for him.
The Garcia trade wasn't bad. But please don't start this "Maybe KW saw something" stuff. We've heard it before from the likes of Juan Uribe, Ross Gload, Esteban Loaiza, and other Sox players that have fizzled out after a hot start. Let's just see what happens over time with Ben Davis ebfore we start this KW say something stuff.

Because we all know one thing KW hasn't seen with all these players that he gets that he supposedly sees something in.


Bob

Flight #24
08-09-2004, 10:46 AM
The Garcia trade wasn't bad. But please don't start this "Maybe KW saw something" stuff. We've heard it before from the likes of Juan Uribe, Ross Gload, Esteban Loaiza, and other Sox players that have fizzled out after a hot start. Let's just see what happens over time with Ben Davis ebfore we start this KW say something stuff.

Because we all know one thing KW hasn't seen with all these players that he gets that he supposedly sees something in.


Bob
I guess I wasn't clear (and re-reading my post, I can see why). It's WAY too early to say whether or not Davis will end up as a decent catcher.

But if he does, that's a credit to Kenny. My comment was in response to posts that if Davis does do well, it's luck (whereas I'm sure that if he flops, it would have been all on KW).

And for the record, I'd say that given what we got out of ELo, it was an awesome signing. 1 great year, and then traded him for a better pitcher who looks like he'll be a VERY good #2 or possibly a #1 type of starter(but even on Jose - it's still early and i'm not making a final determination on him).

gosox41
08-09-2004, 10:48 AM
I guess I wasn't clear (and re-reading my post, I can see why). It's WAY too early to say whether or not Davis will end up as a decent catcher.

But if he does, that's a credit to Kenny. My comment was in response to posts that if Davis does do well, it's luck (whereas I'm sure that if he flops, it would have been all on KW).

And for the record, I'd say that given what we got out of ELo, it was an awesome signing. 1 great year, and then traded him for a better pitcher who looks like he'll be a VERY good #2 or possibly a #1 type of starter(but even on Jose - it's still early and i'm not making a final determination on him).
I misread your post. Late night last night.:gulp:


Bob

habibharu
08-09-2004, 12:57 PM
KW and his scouts certainly have an eye for talent. ever heard of todd ritchie or billy koch?

DVsoxfan
08-09-2004, 01:11 PM
ever heard of todd ritchie or billy koch?
True, but have you heard of Shingo Takatsu, Cliff Politte, or Damaso Marte. My point is that I think you'll find more successes than failures on the part of KW. At the very least, I was referring to the minor league talent that he finds. Particularly pitching. I realize that we had the whole fifth starter thing, but that was solved. Look @ Davis who was a throw in for Freddy. He's coming around, and we stole Contreras from the Yankees.

habibharu
08-09-2004, 01:14 PM
True, but have you heard of Shingo Takatsu, Cliff Politte, or Damaso Marte. My point is that I think you'll find more successes than failures on the part of KW. At the very least, I was referring to the minor league talent that he finds. Particularly pitching. I realize that we had the whole fifth starter thing, but that was solved. Look @ Davis who was a throw in for Freddy. He's coming around, and we stole Contreras from the Yankees. cliff politte is not that great. shingo is a fluke, whether you wanna admit or not. sure he's a good pitcher but there is no way that he can be set closer and have like 30, 40 saves a year. and yes, marte is a stud. but jackson blows, cotts and adkins dont belong in the pen, gload doesnt belong on this team, and scho. is not an SP

Mickster
08-09-2004, 01:39 PM
The Great E-LO is losing 5-0 today to the Jays thru 4 2/3. His Yankee ERA currently stands at about 9.:D:

habibharu
08-09-2004, 01:41 PM
The Great E-LO is losing 5-0 today to the Jays thru 4 2/3. His Yankee ERA currently stands at about 9.:D: yeah that contreras trade looks pretty good right now. but remeber, contreras is signed through 06. who knows how he's gonna pitch coming out of ST next yr? to say that we got the better of that deal is a little premature

Mickster
08-09-2004, 01:44 PM
yeah that contreras trade looks pretty good right now. but remeber, contreras is signed through 06. who knows how he's gonna pitch coming out of ST next yr? to say that we got the better of that deal is a little premature
Wow. You certainly read A LOT into my post. Tell me again where I said that we got the better end of the deal? :?:

iwannago
08-09-2004, 01:46 PM
I normally don't like the trades made by KW. However I think the ELO for Contreras trade was a good one.

habibharu
08-09-2004, 01:47 PM
Wow. You certainly read A LOT into my post. Tell me again where I said that we got the better end of the deal? :?: well i wasnt necessarily talking about ur post only. i was just talkin about all of the posts on this board about how KW totally robbed cashman in that trade

freshdill
08-09-2004, 01:48 PM
Contreras was an absolute stud in international baseball and was well above average last year for the Yankees.

Loaiza has been nothing more than a mediocre pitcher his entire career.

It's highly probable last year was an extreme fluke for Loaiza, and this year with the Yankees was an extreme fluke for Contreras.

I agree -- it's too early to definitively say we got the better of the trade. But past history certainly suggests we did.

And if anybody is really upset about losing Loaiza, don't worry -- the Yankees aren't likely to resign him as his ERA balloons up above 5, and he'll be in the free agent market again.

MRKARNO
08-09-2004, 01:48 PM
who knows how he's gonna pitch coming out of ST next yr?
Obviously you dont know, but I'm willing to bet it won't be too horrible when you have the splitter he has and the fastball he has

Flight #24
08-09-2004, 02:32 PM
yeah that contreras trade looks pretty good right now. but remeber, contreras is signed through 06. who knows how he's gonna pitch coming out of ST next yr? to say that we got the better of that deal is a little premature
And yet, it was not premature to judge the Garcia trade a bad one before Freddy pitched an inning with the Sox, with Miggy hitting .200 against righties, and without Jeremy Reed ever seeing the inside of an MLB batters box. Somehow, that was already obvious to be 2 all-stars in waiting for a fluke, mediocre pitcher.:?:

gosox41
08-09-2004, 02:50 PM
True, but have you heard of Shingo Takatsu, Cliff Politte, or Damaso Marte. My point is that I think you'll find more successes than failures on the part of KW. At the very least, I was referring to the minor league talent that he finds. Particularly pitching. I realize that we had the whole fifth starter thing, but that was solved. Look @ Davis who was a throw in for Freddy. He's coming around, and we stole Contreras from the Yankees.
Who is our fifth starter?

Bob

jeremyb1
08-09-2004, 03:32 PM
I'm not here to say that Davis is the 2d coming of IRod, but uf KW did indeed see something that he thought Soc coaches could get out of Davis that M's couldn't and therefor got him cheap (despite him not being a deal-breaker), that's kudos to him. Davis' being a former 1st rounder doesnt devalue that, because if it were that easy, someone else would have given the Ms something of value for him.

It's all about the probability of fixing him though and to what extent. This is identical to the Loiaiza pickup in my opinion. Sure it was a great signing and sure KW thought Loaiza could have his best season but surely he did not expect him to win 22 games, right? The motivating factor in including Davis was that he was a catcher and with the addition of Olivo he was expendable for the M's. KW most likely insisted on a catcher since Ozzie wanted three catchers and he had only the untested minor league journeyman Burke available. Wilson was not going anywhere because he has a sizable contract, the Ms wanted him to ease along Olivo, and he's a fan favorite. That left only Davis and Pat Borders. I guess I'll give KW credit for choosing the 27 year old underachiever over the 41 year old past his prime, underacheiver but that's minimal credit in my opinion.

The bottom line is that when you're talking about a 27 year old former top draft pick that is beyond atrocious at the major league level and also failed to promote after the shocking but necessary demotion to AAA, if you don't think your scouts can pick up on flaws and your coaching staff can improve his performance they all need to be fired because it should be almost impossible for him to continue to perform that badly even without any assistance.

Flight #24
08-09-2004, 03:55 PM
The bottom line is that when you're talking about a 27 year old former top draft pick that is beyond atrocious at the major league level and also failed to promote after the shocking but necessary demotion to AAA, if you don't think your scouts can pick up on flaws and your coaching staff can improve his performance they all need to be fired because it should be almost impossible for him to continue to perform that badly even without any assistance.
So then why havent the M's coaches been fired? They obviously couldnt do it.....Or whoever Loaiza's coaches were before 2003....Guys fail all the time, and GMs who can spot guys that their coaches/system can "fix" should be rewarded, not told "Ahhhh lucky". You can speculate all you want about whether or not KW wanted Davis, took him because he had no option, or any other scenario (and I'm sure there are a million that can be creatively thought of), but the bottom line is that Kenny got himself a guy who arguably has been an upgrade in the short term over Olivo, and he got him for free.

jabrch
08-09-2004, 04:42 PM
And yet, it was not premature to judge the Garcia trade a bad one before Freddy pitched an inning with the Sox, with Miggy hitting .200 against righties, and without Jeremy Reed ever seeing the inside of an MLB batters box. Somehow, that was already obvious to be 2 all-stars in waiting for a fluke, mediocre pitcher.:?:
This is from the same school of thought that said it was ok to judge the Olivo for Bradford deal before Olivo even got a sniff of the big leagues, and before hitters had a second or third look at Bardfords gimmicky stuff. Look at what a turd Bradford has turned out to be. I don't know who's the worse stiff in that pen, Closer #1 (Rhodes), Closer #2 (Dotel) or setup extraordinare (Bradford)

jabrch
08-09-2004, 04:44 PM
Kenny got himself a guy who arguably has been an upgrade in the short term over Olivo, and he got him for free.

Actually - there is no real arguement. He has definitely been a short term upgrade. And he wasn't "free" - he actually had negative cost, since Seattle sent us cast to cover his salary in the deal.

fquaye149
08-09-2004, 05:09 PM
Who is our fifth starter?

Bob
who would you get? there is really very little we can pick up, and we've tried everything but the kitchen sink.

jeremyb1
08-09-2004, 06:23 PM
So then why havent the M's coaches been fired? They obviously couldnt do it.....Or whoever Loaiza's coaches were before 2003....Guys fail all the time, and GMs who can spot guys that their coaches/system can "fix" should be rewarded, not told "Ahhhh lucky". You can speculate all you want about whether or not KW wanted Davis, took him because he had no option, or any other scenario (and I'm sure there are a million that can be creatively thought of), but the bottom line is that Kenny got himself a guy who arguably has been an upgrade in the short term over Olivo, and he got him for free.

Well my exact words weren't that the coaches should be fired if they couldn't improve him but that if the GM didn't have the confidence they could they should be fired. Regardless, clearly coaches aren't routinely fired over a failure to help one player. Coaches aren't always fired when they should be.

The problem I have here is attributing all of the improvement from a player when he went into the new organization to the coaches for helping the player and the GM for acquiring the player. What happens when a guy improves after a poor season as Odalis Perez and Garcia have done this year. Should the coaches and GMs be lauded for fixing the player and hanging on to him? With journeymen like Loaiza they play for a lot of teams (Loaiza is with his 5th or 6th IIRC, so if they do break out it's most likely going to be for a new organization yet the credit always goes to the coaches for helping the player and the GM for seeing something the other GMs missed. Well, Loaiza supposedly learned his cutter in Toronto. It's entirely possible he would've done just as well last season with them without Don Cooper.

So what it seems to boil down to here is that yeah KW has most likely been lucky with Davis' production so far but we should credit him with the success anyways? That logic just doesn't add up for me.

ode to veeck
08-09-2004, 06:24 PM
well, it would seem, Yankee fans agree with Sox fans who think we took 'em on the deal for Contreras


http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gamecenter/recap/MLB_20040809_TOR@NYY

soxwon
08-09-2004, 06:28 PM
Esteban Loiaza FOR Jose Contreras WITH Steinbrenner paying a portion of Jose's contract.

'NUFF SAID!
i was one of the FEW who liked this deal from the get go.
go check the thread!!! go on!!!
i knew loaiza had a great year, he's a journeymen.
remember pete vuckovich won a cy young award, he was a fluke.
(he also played the huge hitting first baseman in MAJOR LEAGUE)

contreras in two games has shown great promise.
when he is on he can be unhittable.
this was a STEAL deal youll see.

Wanne
08-09-2004, 06:49 PM
Esteban Loiaza FOR Jose Contreras WITH Steinbrenner paying a portion of Jose's contract.

'NUFF SAID!

I think this was a great deal for the sox and you should be thankful that KW had the foresight to pull it off. I bet ELo is sure missin the Cell about now:

Loaiza (9-6) allowed his 26th homer of the season, third in the AL behind Jamie Moyer (31) and Bartolo Colon (29). As soon as Gross' two-run drive down the right-field line hit the top of the wall and bounced over in the sixth inning, giving Toronto a 5-0 lead, the crowd of 49,853 began booing Loaiza.

"They're not playing the game. They don't know what is going on," Loaiza said. "I really don't pay attention to fans that much until the end."

He won't last long there....and he's sure not gonna get the money he thinks he's gonna get. Great deal by KW

JRIG
08-09-2004, 06:54 PM
I think this was a great deal for the sox and you should be thankful that KW had the foresight to pull it off. I bet ELo is sure missin the Cell about now:



He won't last long there....and he's sure not gonna get the money he thinks he's gonna get. Great deal by KW
How can you evaluate a trade like this after 2 starts?? Loaiza, much as he may suck, will be coming off the books at the end of the season. On the other hand, no matter how Contreras pitches, we owe him $12 million over the next two years. Contreras had some pathetic starts earlier this year. There's no guarantee he'll continue to pitch this well. And if he doen't have an ERA below 4.20 or so, we'll be vastly overpaying him the next two years.

Daver
08-09-2004, 06:59 PM
There's no guarantee he'll continue to pitch this well. And if he doen't have an ERA below 4.20 or so, we'll be vastly overpaying him the next two years.Not really.

Any FA replacement is going to cost close to that, pitching can still bring top dollar in a soft FA market, the only way to lower the price is to extend the years, which is just as bad in the long run.

Wanne
08-09-2004, 07:03 PM
How can you evaluate a trade like this after 2 starts?? Loaiza, much as he may suck, will be coming off the books at the end of the season. On the other hand, no matter how Contreras pitches, we owe him $12 million over the next two years. Contreras had some pathetic starts earlier this year. There's no guarantee he'll continue to pitch this well. And if he doen't have an ERA below 4.20 or so, we'll be vastly overpaying him the next two years.

I think you answered you own question there. Loaiza is a mediocre pitcher at best. It is MY OPINION (and I think many others) that Contreras will flourish getting out from under the NYC microscope (which ELo will crumble) and having some Latin influence. That's what I'm basing my opinion on. I couldn't care less who's "off the books" next year. I like the fact that Contreras still has two more years. I don't get your argument the "no matter how Contreras pitches will owe him $12M..." Well...if he keeps pitching like he's started out with the Sox...I'd say that a pretty good deal.

JRIG
08-09-2004, 07:04 PM
Not really.

Any FA replacement is going to cost close to that, pitching can still bring top dollar in a soft FA market, the only way to lower the price is to extend the years, which is just as bad in the long run.
If he pitches like he has withthe Yanks this year, we'll be vastly overpaying him. It would be like giving Schoenweiss $6 million a year. And if we decide to give the same money to a free agent pitcher, well, at least we know what we're getting. Contreras has about 170 IP total at the major league level. And well more than half of it has been very below average (this year with Yanks).

I guess it depends on your view on Contreras. I think it's quite possible we end up with a guy putting up a 4.40 ERA every year -- a Garland-type. That's not worth $6 million a year. And IMO the chances of Contreras busting (ERA>5.00) are greater than him busting out (ERA<4.00 ).

jabrch
08-09-2004, 08:17 PM
If he pitches like he has withthe Yanks this year, we'll be vastly overpaying him.
Even that might not be true. If you take out his starts vs Boston, he would still be worth 6mm.

Flight #24
08-09-2004, 09:30 PM
Well my exact words weren't that the coaches should be fired if they couldn't improve him but that if the GM didn't have the confidence they could they should be fired. Regardless, clearly coaches aren't routinely fired over a failure to help one player. Coaches aren't always fired when they should be.

The point remains, your comment was "if you don't think your scouts can pick up on flaws and your coaching staff can improve his performance they all need to be fired because it should be almost impossible for him to continue to perform that badly even without any assistance.". Apparently the M's management didn't think that was the case for Davis. Off with their heads!!!

The problem I have here is attributing all of the improvement from a player when he went into the new organization to the coaches for helping the player and the GM for acquiring the player. What happens when a guy improves after a poor season as Odalis Perez and Garcia have done this year. Should the coaches and GMs be lauded for fixing the player and hanging on to him? With journeymen like Loaiza they play for a lot of teams (Loaiza is with his 5th or 6th IIRC, so if they do break out it's most likely going to be for a new organization yet the credit always goes to the coaches for helping the player and the GM for seeing something the other GMs missed. Well, Loaiza supposedly learned his cutter in Toronto. It's entirely possible he would've done just as well last season with them without Don Cooper.

So what it seems to boil down to here is that yeah KW has most likely been lucky with Davis' production so far but we should credit him with the success anyways? That logic just doesn't add up for me.
It works either way. Either KW saw a guy that he thought his coaches could fix, or he saw a guy that he thought could play better than he was in a new situation. That's at least as projectible for KW as say.....projecting Billy Koch would have arm trouble was when he was traded for.

Obviously it depends on whether or not he keeps it up, and it is certainly a small sample size, but if Davis even hits .260, and plays solid D, it's a great move by KW to ID a decent catcher, and get him for free.

gosox41
08-09-2004, 10:33 PM
who would you get? there is really very little we can pick up, and we've tried everything but the kitchen sink.
I'll have to see who is available this off season, but I am sick and tired of the crap we have now.


Bob

OzzieBall2004
08-14-2004, 05:25 PM
Well, Esteban had another poor outing today, giving up four runs in 5+ innings of work against the lowly Mariners. Even though Contreras was far from dominating yesterday versus the Red Sox, he pitched effectively and showed flashes of brillance when he needed an out. This deal is beginning to look more and more like a steal, and reminds me a lot of when we got hosed on the Koch for Foulke swap.

Regardless of whether Contreras proves to help get us back in this thing and make the postseason this year, there's no question he will help create a formidable rotation for next season and the following year. Do I think we can turn it around this year? Lets just say I'm not putting money away for playoff tickets or requesting a vacation in October, but I'm much more optimistic about the future than I was 3 weeks ago.

Blob
08-14-2004, 05:36 PM
Let's not be ignorant and wait and see what Contreras does over the long term. I liked the deal when it happened, but gloating after one good game is assinine.
I would be confident enough to say that Esteban is going nowhere quick!