PDA

View Full Version : Valentin Wants To Talk Contract Extention: Sun-Times


StillMissOzzie
07-21-2004, 02:27 AM
According to the story I read in the Sun-Times (sorry, no linky) Jose Valentin wants to talk contract extention. There were no numbers discussed. Any idea what it would take to lock him up for another year or two?

In spite of his defensive shortfalls, I'm a Valentin fan and I'd like to see him stick around. He's great in the clubhouse, a certified sCrUB-killer, and his power has been good the last couple of years, especially since he's dropped the switch-hitting.

How much $$$ and for how many years should the Sox offer Jose?

SMO
:gulp:

Aidan
07-21-2004, 03:26 AM
I heard this on the news as well. Here's the link:

http://www.suntimes.com/output/sox/cst-spt-ssep20.html
''We haven't talked about it yet, but I have some confidence that we can work something out,'' Valentin said. ''I'm positive.''I sure hope we sign Valentin for the rest of his career. He is a fan favorite and a big-time CLUTCH hitter. He is currently leading all shortstops in the MLB in homers with 20. :Rocker: While he isn't the greatest glove we could have at SS, he more than makes up for this with his power and "clutchness". :tongue:

Jose has never been a greedy man and has taken less money in the past to stay here in Chicago. We owe it to him to keep him in a White Sox uniform for the rest of his career. There are alot of teams out there that would take his numbers at SS; the Scrubbies even come to mind. In fact, I've read over at the Cubs board that they would love to have Jose at SS. :angry: It seems like Jose is willing to give us a discount though. Get it done, Jerry.

SSN721
07-21-2004, 05:54 AM
I would have a hard time offering more then 5-6 mil for 2 years. Maybe a club option for a third. I wouldnt mind him finishing out his career here, he obviously loves this team and the team loves him, but I hope we dont overpay to keep him either.

vegyrex
07-21-2004, 06:53 AM
Last night Hawk seemed like he was making a pitch for Jose to stay. He said in spite of Jose's strike outs, he's gotten important hits, like the homer he hit to tie the game. I'm all for resigning Jose. When he mocked Shammie a few years ago at Wrigley he forever endeared me to him. :smile:

The horror of horrors would be to see Jose in a flub uniform. :mad:

jabrch
07-21-2004, 07:41 AM
His performance this year seems to have justified the 5mm pricetag that he has. If KW signed him to a 2 year 10mm deal with a club option for a third year, I wouldn't be upset. Where else do you find that kind of production from a SS for under 10mm?

bigdommer
07-21-2004, 07:55 AM
For what it's worth, I no longer consider Jose a defensive liability. I think that the troubles he had in the past come from a shoddy pitching staff and a less than stellar defense around him. Instead of having pitchers with the likes of Jim Parque and JB, he has guys like Burly, Garcia, and ELo, who can strike guys out. Also, instead of having Herb Perry(NO RANGE) to his right and Frank catching balls for him at 1st, he has a solid 3B in Crede and an above average 1B in Konerko, who can scoop and make sweep tags. I am not saying Jose's D is now a strength, it just isn't the glaring hole that it used to be.

Plus, he is the "maestro of the 3-run homer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

soxtalker
07-21-2004, 08:13 AM
For what it's worth, I no longer consider Jose a defensive liability. I think that the troubles he had in the past come from a shoddy pitching staff and a less than stellar defense around him. Instead of having pitchers with the likes of Jim Parque and JB, he has guys like Burly, Garcia, and ELo, who can strike guys out. Also, instead of having Herb Perry(NO RANGE) to his right and Frank catching balls for him at 1st, he has a solid 3B in Crede and an above average 1B in Konerko, who can scoop and make sweep tags. I am not saying Jose's D is now a strength, it just isn't the glaring hole that it used to be.

Plus, he is the "maestro of the 3-run homer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Jose has made many horrible throws in the past few years. How can that be blamed on the pitcher? And PK has been the primary first baseman throughout. He's got lots of positives, but blaming others for the errors doesn't wash.

jackbrohamer
07-21-2004, 09:43 AM
It's funny that Valentin rips Thomas for not being a "team player," and the next week he's trying to negotiate hiis contract in the papers, during a pennant run

SoxxoS
07-21-2004, 09:46 AM
I will take 486 K's and 162 homers anyday...:smile:

munchman33
07-21-2004, 10:07 AM
2 years $10 million is fine by me. Not a bad price to pay for a starting shortstop. Fits our budget nicely, and we know he can produce offensively. Being left-handed is a plus as well. I'd rather have Renterria, but if we lose Maggs then maybe that money can be used to sign another SP in the off-season.

ma_deuce
07-21-2004, 10:47 AM
I stand by my original statement in a similar post about Valentin's extension yesterday:

By the way, the only extension Valentin deserves is of my middle finger. His fielding stinks and his batting average isn't much better. He hits well in games we are already leading in and little else. He strikes out a ton, and will only get worse with age. I hope this is his last year as a starter for the Sox, if not his last year with the Sox altogether. Same goes for Sandy, as long as we pick up a decent catcher to support Burke. We have young talent that need experiance in something more than warming the bench every other game.http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=37272

Deuce

Frater Perdurabo
07-21-2004, 10:50 AM
In April, when Uribe and Harris were hot, I would have been inclined to let Valentin walk. But now that Valentin hits exclusively left-handed, and his average and power numbers are up, he has earned the right to request an extension. His lefty power is sorely needed on this team. His glove is good and he has decent range. As others have said, his only defensive shortcoming is his tendency toward throwing wild, but now that Paulie is hitting again, his ability to stretch and lunge for bad throws helps Valentin.

I think he might be worth $3-4 million per year. :bandance:

Randar68
07-21-2004, 11:01 AM
In April, when Uribe and Harris were hot, I would have been inclined to let Valentin walk. But now that Valentin hits exclusively left-handed, and his average and power numbers are up, he has earned the right to request an extension. His lefty power is sorely needed on this team. His glove is good and he has decent range. As others have said, his only defensive shortcoming is his tendency toward throwing wild, but now that Paulie is hitting again, his ability to stretch and lunge for bad throws helps Valentin.

I think he might be worth $3-4 million per year. :bandance:
I have been impressed with what one might term "better defensive concentration". It seemed in the past a lot of Jose's errors were just numbskull plays, or getting lazy, dropping his elbow just a little and throwing one of those rising fastballs to 1st base.

2 years, 9 million dollars with a mutual 3rd year option at 5 million? Maybe make the option performance based? Uribe was about 1 month from convincing me Jose was expendable, but I'm no longer convince. To me, his approach and swing against lefties has actually improved enough for him to not be an automatic out. I'd love to have a great-glove speedster with a .375 OBP at SS, but I don't know that is a realistic possibility.

Frater Perdurabo
07-21-2004, 11:20 AM
I have been impressed with what one might term "better defensive concentration". It seemed in the past a lot of Jose's errors were just numbskull plays, or getting lazy, dropping his elbow just a little and throwing one of those rising fastballs to 1st base.

2 years, 9 million dollars with a mutual 3rd year option at 5 million? Maybe make the option performance based? Uribe was about 1 month from convincing me Jose was expendable, but I'm no longer convince. To me, his approach and swing against lefties has actually improved enough for him to not be an automatic out. I'd love to have a great-glove speedster with a .375 OBP at SS, but I don't know that is a realistic possibility.

Randar, I agree. Even beyond Uribe's inconsistency, Valentin has played himself back into the "long-term" (2-3 years) plan for this team. I think he is a valuable member of the team especially considering his left-handed stick and above-average glove. Perhaps Uribe and Harris just need to platoon at 2B and bat ninth. If Maggs does leave, Everett capably fills right field with Frank returing to DH. Based on his .300 average, Rowand too has earned a starter's role. However, if he too falters like Uribe and Harris, perhaps Borchard will be ready to play CF in 2005.

This leaves catcher and leadoff hitter as the only significant holes. Even though he's not the prototypical leadoff hitter, if he were to approve a trade to the Sox, I think Jason Kendall's OBP at the top of the order would round out the lineup very nicely. If so, that makes for a respectable, balanced lineup:

Kendall-Valentin-Frank-Lee-Everett-Konerko-Rowand/Borchard-Crede-Harris/Uribe

Randar68
07-21-2004, 11:29 AM
Kendall-Valentin-Frank-Lee-Everett-Konerko-Rowand/Borchard-Crede-Harris/Uribe
Don't forget, but at this time next year we could be talking about Brian Anderson patrolling CF.

WSox8404
07-21-2004, 11:35 AM
I think 3 to 4 million a year would be the right amount. I would like to see a 2 year deal worth 7 to 8 million with an option for a third year at 6 million with a buyout possible.

Frater Perdurabo
07-21-2004, 11:51 AM
Don't forget, but at this time next year we could be talking about Brian Anderson patrolling CF.

Of course, that would either be a great thing (if Anderson continues his tear) or an incredibly bad thing (Anderson forced to play because Rowand, Borchard and Harris all tank or get hurt).

Hopefully Anderson isn't traded.

SoxxoS
07-21-2004, 12:01 PM
Hopefully Anderson isn't traded.
I think that is an extremely safe assumption. You got to think KW gave up on Reed b/c of the emergence of Anderson.

WhiteSoxFan84
07-21-2004, 12:25 PM
I stand by my original statement in a similar post about Valentin's extension yesterday:

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=37272

Deuce
Alrite everyone, sit down and stop replying to this thread, maduece has made his mind up. He's right, we should let Jose go and sign Alex Gonzalez (Cubs Version).

Please, no more replies here, find a new thread....

WhiteSoxFan84
07-21-2004, 12:34 PM
All joking aside...

He's 34 years old with a .324 career OBP, but lately he's been clutch. I say give him a 1 year deal with a couple of option years. Gurantee him $5 mill next year, another $6 mill player option for 2006, and a team option of $6.5 mill for 2007. Pretty much if both options are executed, it equals out to a 3 year $17.5 mill deal. Overpaying? I don't think so.

Brian26
07-21-2004, 12:34 PM
Hawk was definitely on the Jose lovefest last night. After Jose's homer last night to tie the game late....

:hawk

"Jose! He LOVES THE MOMENT!"

ma_deuce
07-21-2004, 12:59 PM
Alrite everyone, sit down and stop replying to this thread, maduece has made his mind up. He's right, we should let Jose go and sign Alex Gonzalez (Cubs Version).

Please, no more replies here, find a new thread....
This is what I get for speaking out against a fan favorite, I guess.

Jose is getting paid a lot of money to strike out. Sure he hits the occasional long ball, but that is because he is always swinging for it. I do not believe that this approach is what it best for the team, and I have no qualms about saying it.

If I have come off as being arrogant, I apologize. I have made a lot of bad calls in the past concerning the Sox (ie. I thought the Foulke trade was a good idea), and have always admitted when I am wrong. However, I do not believe I am here. Valentin is no longer the asset he was in the past. And IMO if we want to win, we are going to have to prioritize.

In my book, no player is above the needs of the team. If it makes the team better, we should be willing to trade any player we have. Otherwise, we are always going to be the second team in the Second City.

Deuce

Flight #24
07-21-2004, 01:22 PM
This is what I get for speaking out against a fan favorite, I guess.

Jose is getting paid a lot of money to strike out. Sure he hits the occasional long ball, but that is because he is always swinging for it. I do not believe that this approach is what it best for the team, and I have no qualms about saying it.


Deuce
I dunno about that. An .861 OPS @ SS is pretty darn good unles your name happens to be Tejada, Nomar, ARod. And doing it while playing pretty good D is even better. And doing it for $5 mil is awesome.

Jose's last 5 years (including '04), he's had 3 years in the mid-800s and 2 in the high 700s. Given that plus the fact that his resurgence is associated with a change in his batting (i.e. no more switch hitting), I think it's safe to say it's unlikely to be a fluke and rather something that he can maintain or have a slight decline from.

I'll take 2 years of D+an 825-850OPS for $5mil. And keep around a great clutch, clubhouse guy.

ma_deuce
07-21-2004, 01:35 PM
I dunno about that. An .861 OPS @ SS is pretty darn good unles your name happens to be Tejada, Nomar, ARod. And doing it while playing pretty good D is even better. And doing it for $5 mil is awesome.

Jose's last 5 years (including '04), he's had 3 years in the mid-800s and 2 in the high 700s. Given that plus the fact that his resurgence is associated with a change in his batting (i.e. no more switch hitting), I think it's safe to say it's unlikely to be a fluke and rather something that he can maintain or have a slight decline from.
I hope you are right...

Deuce

maurice
07-21-2004, 01:52 PM
I think it's safe to say it's unlikely to be a fluke and rather something that he can maintain or have a slight decline from.Well, his current SLG and HR total are a fluke. They're likely to regress to his mean in the second half, particularly given his age. His fielding is notoriously streaky and likely to decline over the next two years.

For these reasons, $10 mil over two years is vastly overpaying a guy with a .319 OBP and a questionable glove who turns 35 in October. Christ, Carlos Guillen gets paid half that to post a .389 OBP.

With the money saved on expiring contracts this offseason, KW ought to be able to get a good, younger SS. Worst case scenario, Uribe provides excellent defense, a similar OBP, and good power for 1/10th the cost.

SoxxoS
07-21-2004, 02:14 PM
Well, his current SLG and HR total are a fluke. They're likely to regress to his mean in the second half, particularly given his age. His fielding is notoriously streaky and likely to decline over the next two years.

For these reasons, $10 mil over two years is vastly overpaying a guy with a .319 OBP and a questionable glove who turns 35 in October. Christ, Carlos Guillen gets paid half that to post a .389 OBP.

With the money saved on expiring contracts this offseason, KW ought to be able to get a good, younger SS. Worst case scenario, Uribe provides excellent defense, a similar OBP, and good power for 1/10th the cost.You are highly underrating the intagibles, first off. Jose "loves the moment" and hits when it counts. Remember the old adage, it's not how many hits, its when you get the hits. That adage, however, doesn't mean anything going into my next point:
Statistics. First off, OBP isn't nearly as important of a stat as OPS. So if you are going to look at a a stat, look at that one. Valentin has a 60 point higher OPS. But stats don't tell you when you get key hits. Name the last time Uribe got a key hit similar to Valentin. (Matter of fact, name the last time Uribe got A hit). Also, if you are talking "fluke" about about Uribe's April? OMG, that is looking more and more like he pulled that month right out of his ass.

Not to mention Valentin is a leader in the clubhouse, is an excellent baserunner, and plays hard ALL THE TIME. Also, not included in OBP.

JohnBasedowYoda
07-21-2004, 02:26 PM
:manos
I have you all within the clutches of my 'stache
paid for the commitee for 2005 Manos

maurice
07-21-2004, 03:11 PM
Remember the old adage, it's not how many hits, its when you get the hits.Remember the old adage, what you don't know can't hurt you. Both of these old adages are equally dumb. The vast majority of ABs make a difference in the outcome of a game. The sum total of every AB in the first 8 innings of every game all season certainly means a lot more than a handful of ABs at the end of a few close games. That's why overall production matters. Besides, if you produce early in the game, it won't be close in the 9th.

Valentin has a 60 point higher OPS.. . . based largely on his inflated SLG, which is virtually certain to decline both over the second half of this season and over the next two years (age 35 through age 37). Moreover, SLG is significanlty less important than OBP, and Valentin's OBP shows that he makes outs at a higher rate than most MLB starters and a higher rate than any Sox starter not named Crede. That's pretty sad for an alleged #2 hitter and a bad value at $5 mil per.

Not to mention Valentin is a leader in the clubhouse, is an excellent baserunner, and plays hard ALL THE TIME.The leadership thing is an open question, particularly in light of the fact that he's selfishly bringing up his contract in the middle of a penant race, swings for the fences irrespective of the situation, and refused to bat lefty for the vast majority of his career because he wanted the status of a switch hitter. Besides, Uribe seems to be well-liked by his teammates, also is a good baserunner, and also plays hard ALL THE TIME. There is no Jiminez factor at play here.

Finally, while Valentin has been better than Uribe so far this season, you're never going to convince me that he'll be ten times better than Uribe over the next two years. Given the financial realities of running the Sox, that's the relevant question. I might be persuaded to bring him back for 2 years / $4 mil, but IMHO 2 years / $10 mil is WAY out of the question. Clearing $5 mil from the books for upgrades is a pretty attractive option, especially when considered in conjunction with the fact that Koch's salary is gone and the probability that Maggs' $14 mil will be gone too.

MisterB
07-21-2004, 03:44 PM
For these reasons, $10 mil over two years is vastly overpaying a guy with a .319 OBP and a questionable glove who turns 35 in October. Christ, Carlos Guillen gets paid half that to post a .389 OBP.
Guillen got paid that assuming he'd put up numbers like the .270/.340/.390 that he did his last 2 years in Seattle. Talk about your flukes...

Wealz
07-21-2004, 03:47 PM
$8-10M for 2 years for Valentin is an acceptable signing. What are the alternatives? Renteria or Garciaparra at around $50M for 5 years or Uribe? No thanks.

StepsInSC
07-21-2004, 04:11 PM
Of course he wants to resign now, his value is HIGH. He's had a better-than-expected first half and he knows that the probability of him keeping his current pace is not high.

maurice
07-21-2004, 06:03 PM
Of course he wants to resign now, his value is HIGH. He's had a better-than-expected first half and he knows that the probability of him keeping his current pace is not high.
Exactly! It's like when Garcia signed his extension, and Loaiza hopped in front of some microphones and ridiculously contended that he deserved the same deal.

A 29-year-old Renteria (30 SB, .360-ish OBP, four-time All Star) for 5 years / $50 mil over a 35-year-old Valentin (5 SB, .315-ish OBP, zero-time All Star)? Yes, please.

Yomarei
07-21-2004, 06:24 PM
I stand by my original statement in a similar post about Valentin's extension yesterday:
By the way, the only extension Valentin deserves is of my middle finger. His fielding stink
Stinks? You mean like this

http://diamond-mind.com/articles/gg2003.htm

I suggest you stop living in 2000.

He hits well in games we are already leading in and little else.Lesse.....Just from the last 2-3 weeks or so....

-wins the game against Cleveland with a big double and an even bigger walk off homer
-also against Cleveland, hits a huge 2-out, 3-run HR to give Rauch a much needed 3-0 lead....basically a game-winner.
-Late homer against Cubs in a close game.
-Homer in Metrodome for 2-0 lead
-Homer off Moyer to tie the game at 3-3. .
-Homer off Mulder to put Sox up 2-0
-Homer off Francisco to tie the game at 4-4

Perhaps his 'Close and Late' OPS of 1460, which is by far the best in MLB for players with at least 35 at bats in those situations, is a better indicator than your preposterous assumption that he only pads his stats.

He strikes out a tonSo do Dunn, Edmonds and Thome among others. Better that than, say, grounding into 25 double plays Tejada will have this year. Making contact at all costs is overrated.

and will only get worse with age .

Or he'll get smarter with age, will start utilizing CF and LF and become a good all-around hitter. He got smarter on defense with age, and who knows if that will extend to offense or not. Not you.

Yomarei
07-21-2004, 06:30 PM
.Moreover, SLG is significanlty less important than OBPSays who?

Walks, while important, do not drive the runs in. Hits do, especially of extra-base variety. And runs win games.

And with his quality baserunning, he maximizes his pedestrian OBP. Not many players can go from 1st to 3rd on a bunt single or score from 3rd on two pops to the tarp (both by Borchard in Cleveland series last year). Or advance to 3rd on a comebacker to the pitcher. And many similar plays we all take for granted now.

And Carlos Guillen is a career low-700 OPS player. Let's wait until the year is out, shall we? And last time I checked he is making almost 5 Mill a year for the next 3 years, not "half".

Yomarei
07-21-2004, 06:41 PM
A 29-year-old Renteria (30 SB, .360-ish OBP, four-time All Star) for 5 years .Renteria is looking for Tejada money.

Overrated fielder, only displayed power once in his career (last year) and won't be much of a baserunning upgrade either the way he is running this year - as they hit the 30yo mark, get that big contract and become power-conscious, they don't want to take the beating on the pads anymore.

So basically you'll be paying 60 Mill over 5 years to a 360 OBP/425 Slugg, 15 SB and good defensive player, which is fine if you're the Yankeees......Yes, I'd rather take Valentin for 1 year at 4 Mill.

And Valentin's OPS is not going anywhere - as he gets more and more at bats under his belt against LHP, his overall production will be diluted less and less by southpaws. God forbid, someone convinces Manos to start going with the pitch and utilize LF-LCF-CF instead of foolishly trying to turn on outside pitches as he's always done......He'll be ok, let's put it that way.

EDIT: You know what else I just realized? Renteria has a 625 OPS against RHP this year and 750 OPS in 2001-2003.....Sox already have enough southpaw-killers in the line-up, and our bigger need is for LH power - what are we gonna do against all those right-handed fastball pitchers in the playoffs, for instance? Not only do we need Jose, but we could use Beltran as well.

Tragg
07-21-2004, 08:37 PM
This is what I get for speaking out against a fan favorite, I guess.

Jose is getting paid a lot of money to strike out. Sure he hits the occasional long ball, but that is because he is always swinging for it. I do not believe that this approach is what it best for the team, and I have no qualms about saying it.


Deuce
Better the occasional long ball than an occasional single, which most SS deliver. I think he needs a pay-cut (not a big one) but he's still better than average.

SoxxoS
07-21-2004, 08:50 PM
Remember the old adage, what you don't know can't hurt you. Both of these old adages are equally dumb. The vast majority of ABs make a difference in the outcome of a game. The sum total of every AB in the first 8 innings of every game all season certainly means a lot more than a handful of ABs at the end of a few close games. That's why overall production matters. Besides, if you produce early in the game, it won't be close in the 9th.

This just doesn't make much sense. Some guys are clutch hitters. Others aren't. First off producing early in the game might be completely different than producing late in the game. A sac bunt might "produce" in the 2nd, but 2 on 2 out down by 1, is a completely different situation. The sum total of every AB in the first 8 innings does mean "more" for the player. Not necessarily for the team. The teams needs hits in clutch situations, and Jose delivers. Additionally, baseball has an infinite number of situations, so an at-bat with nobody on and 2 out is going to produce a compeltely different at-bat than with runner on 2nd, nobody out.

. . based largely on his inflated SLG, which is virtually certain to decline both over the second half of this season and over the next two years (age 35 through age 37). Moreover, SLG is significanlty less important than OBP, and Valentin's OBP shows that he makes outs at a higher rate than most MLB starters and a higher rate than any Sox starter not named Crede. That's pretty sad for an alleged #2 hitter and a bad value at $5 mil per.

First off, I think if Ozzie had his way, Jose wouldn't be batting second. He is kind of in a bind with Franks injury. If you want to talk stats, look at Jose compared to the rest of the AL shortstops. I think you will find he is 1st or 2nd in every major offensive category, minus the most overrated stat...batting average. You can't just look at one stat and negate the others.
If you want to talk about inflated numbers...how about Uribe's April and early May.

Finally, while Valentin has been better than Uribe so far this season, you're never going to convince me that he'll be ten times better than Uribe over the next two years. Given the financial realities of running the Sox, that's the relevant question. I might be persuaded to bring him back for 2 years / $4 mil, but IMHO 2 years / $10 mil is WAY out of the question. Clearing $5 mil from the books for upgrades is a pretty attractive option, especially when considered in conjunction with the fact that Koch's salary is gone and the probability that Maggs' $14 mil will be gone too.

If Uribe is as good as you say he is, then don't you think he will be expecting a raise next year (I believe he is a FA?? Or do we have an option)? I like Uribe. Uribe is Tony Granffanino super, a great guy to have, but not a starter.

Yomarei
07-21-2004, 09:11 PM
When it comes to Valentin, the rule of thumb is:

He is not as good as his fans would like you to believe.
He is not neeeeeaaaaarly as bad as his detractors would like you to believe.

If you want Jose to carry the team no his back, you'll be disappointed. But if he is part of the supporting crew on a good team (when he has something to play for, his focus seems to go up, both offensively and defensively), you'll be surprised how deceptively valuable he can be.

ma_deuce
07-21-2004, 11:45 PM
Stinks? You mean like this

http://diamond-mind.com/articles/gg2003.htm

I suggest you stop living in 2000.This article was written last year about last year and supports its assumption on "extrapolated" stats for 2001 and 2002. Under these circumstances, you can imagine just about anything.

And as far as living in 2000, it sure is a lot better than living in 2001-2003 where we fell short of the division every time... mostly due to the overemphasis on the long ball by players not named Thomas.

Lesse.....Just from the last 2-3 weeks or so....

-wins the game against Cleveland with a big double and an even bigger walk off homer
-also against Cleveland, hits a huge 2-out, 3-run HR to give Rauch a much needed 3-0 lead....basically a game-winner.
-Late homer against Cubs in a close game.
-Homer in Metrodome for 2-0 lead
-Homer off Moyer to tie the game at 3-3. .
-Homer off Mulder to put Sox up 2-0
-Homer off Francisco to tie the game at 4-4And how many times has he struck out? In 74 games this year, Valentin has struck out 93 times. That is 21 short of his total for 2003 with 144 games and six short of 2002 with 135 games. This month alone he has struck out 25 times in 17 games with only 10 hits, 7 runs and four homers. His OBP for July is .262, his SLG is .379 and his AVG is .172. And this is most likely only the beginning of his traditional second half decline because he is 1) old and 2) swinging for the fences every single time.

Making contact at all costs is overrated.Well then, Valentin must be one of the most underrated starters in the league because you don't have to worry about contact at all costs. Its 3 strikeouts and a homer for certain.

Or he'll get smarter with age, will start utilizing CF and LF and become a good all-around hitter. He got smarter on defense with age, and who knows if that will extend to offense or not. Not you.The short game is essential for the long haul, but Valentin doesn't seem to understand that. If he is not smart enough at 35 to know that this team is in desperate need of hits, then I am not all that willing to wait and see if he smartens up.

People say he is a clutch hitter? Well, I say if Valentin wasn't striking out so often we wouldn't be in clutch situations so often.

Better the occasional long ball than an occasional single, which most SS deliver.And that is the reason we should shell out big bucks to keep Valentin? I'd rather get a "normal" SS and spend the money on resigning Maggs than burn it on Jose. Or take the money and pick up some good prospects. We have options, so lets use them.

Deuce

Wealz
07-21-2004, 11:52 PM
I'd rather get a "normal" SS and spend the money on resigning Maggs than burn it on Jose.
This "normal" SS, who is he? I don't mean to be filippant, but Valentin will be more difficult to replace than Ordonez all things (money) considered.

Aidan
07-22-2004, 12:17 AM
I can't believe people are complaining about getting these numbers from your starting shortstop...

Jose Valentin (http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=123610)
.250 AVG
21 HR
56 RBI

Jose leads all shortstops in MLB with 21 homeruns. He is also ranked 3rd out of all shortstops with 56 RBIs. Would you rather have Alex Gonzalez? Cubs fans would give their left nuts to have a SS like Manos. :rolleyes:

Nellie_Fox
07-22-2004, 12:24 AM
I can't believe people are complaining about getting these numbers from your starting shortstop...

Jose Valentin (http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player.jsp?player_id=123610)
.250 AVG
21 HR
56 RBI

Would you rather have Alex Gonzalez. Cubs fans would give their left nuts to have a SS like Manos. :rolleyes: I'm not complaining (although a .250 batting average doesn't axactly light my fire.) The entire time Jose has been here, WSI posters have made him an "all or nothing" proposition. You either thought he was the bomb, or you're a "Jose hater."

The question is how much is he worth. Just because you don't think the Sox should break the bank to re-sign him (especially at his age) doesn't mean you don't appreciate what he has meant to this point.

The money players get today is just insane. That makes it that much more difficult for players late in their career to hang on. This is just reality.

ode to veeck
07-22-2004, 12:25 AM
-wins the game against Cleveland with a big double and an even bigger walk off homer
-also against Cleveland, hits a huge 2-out, 3-run HR to give Rauch a much needed 3-0 lead....basically a game-winner.
-Late homer against Cubs in a close game.
-Homer in Metrodome for 2-0 lead
-Homer off Moyer to tie the game at 3-3. .
-Homer off Mulder to put Sox up 2-0
-Homer off Francisco to tie the game at 4-4

Didn't he also hit a 9th inning two run blast in one of the "in Oakland" losses to tie it up. Even though the Sox eventually lost, it was another classic Manos clutch hitting example

Aidan
07-22-2004, 12:36 AM
Didn't he also hit a 9th inning two run blast in one of the "in Oakland" losses to tie it up. Even though the Sox eventually lost, it was another classic Manos clutch hitting exampleYes, he did. That was on June 1st at Oakland. Here's the game recap...

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/cws/news/cws_gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20040602&content_id=758852&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp

Jose nutted a two-run homer with 2 outs in the 9th inning that tied the game 4-4. The A's went on to win the game in extra innings 6-4.

Yomarei
07-22-2004, 09:34 AM
I didn't know one could be so off and get so many things wrong in one post.....

This article was written last year about last year and supports its assumption on "extrapolated" stats for 2001 and 2002. Under these circumstances, you can imagine just about anythingHuh? What the **** are you talking about? Do you even understand what 'extrapolated' means? The various range statistics and advanced defensive measures like Pinto's PMR, Defensive Shares, Ultine's ZR, etc are unaffected by whether or not the sample size is 70 games or 140. We extrapolate offense all the time, why should defense be any different?

And 2003 was a FULL year so you can't even use THAT lame excuse. My god, is there no end to your bias? Whether from statistical or empirical standpoint, Valentin's Total defense (fielding% is just a part of it) has improved in the last few years. He began to cut down down on routine errors while his superior range, arm and aggressiveness-bordering-on-recklessness still allowed him to accrue "extra" outs over the course of the long season.

I think 2002-2004 is a little better indicator of where his defense will go than, say, 1999.

And how many times has he struck out? Who gives a **** how many times he struck out! Adam Dunn is on pace to strike out 215 times this year.....There is not a single offensive statistic that is as meaningless as strike-outs.

Again, only slower: I'd rather a player K'd than, say, hit into a DOUBLE PLAY - see Tejada this year for instance. Jose only has 3 GIDP this year, but I guess you'd rather he hit into 28 DP (that would mean he accounted for 20+ "hidden" outs to say nothing of the intangible, psychological "rally-killing" effect a GIDP can have on a team and the pitcher) as Konerko did last year just so long as Jose DOESN'T STRIKE-OUT, eh? Hell, I'd rather have an 8-pitch strike-out that forces the pitcher to work and to showcase his 'out' pitch for the next batter than a 1-pitch fly-out.

And I think it's hilarious how you accuse Jose of only padding his stats in meaningless situations and I am able to off the top of my head give you no less than 8 examples in the last 20 days alone - and he was actually in a slump for the majority of that time, but the clutch hits kept on coming anyway.......Padding stats my ass, you couldn't be more off if you tried...which you did. :redneck

The man has 1440 OPS in 'Close and Late' situations this year, for crying outloud. And those are by far THE most important at bats in any given game.....And he is the stat-padder? Unreal.

And this is most likely only the beginning of his traditional second half decline because he is 1) old and 2) swinging for the fences every single time .

His traditional 2nd half decline? Not only are you woefully ignorant based on the above comments, but now you're gonna resort to lies as well? In 2000-2003, Valentin has a slightly higher OPS post-All-Star break than he does pre-ASB. In fact, his August and September were traditionally better than May, June and July in that time span. Oops.


Well then, Valentin must be one of the most underrated starters in the league because you don't have to worry about contact at all costs. Its 3 strikeouts and a homer for certain.
No, Valentin has been one of the most underrated (in no small part thanks to the efforts of haters like you) starters in the game in the last 5 years because EVERY facet of his game is better than he is being given credit for, sometimes by a good margin when everything is tallied up.

Examples: getting a typical great jump from 1st and beating out Christian Guzman's force-out throw to 2nd on Konerko's would-be DP ball, saved the Sox 2 outs, which we used to score 5 runs and not only win the game but set up the entire 4-game series, with Sox winning 3......Advancing on many plays such as a bounce in the dirt or a comebacker to the pitcher, scoring from 3rd on a shallow pop, picking a 3B's pockets and scoring as he throws to 1B, etc......Ranging far in the hole and starting a DP on a would-be single to LF, turns a base-hit into 2 outs....Faking out a tag on Crosby and then picking the runner off from 3rd.......Hitting a clutch, late HR against Oak, Mont, Phillie, Sea, Cle, Tex are worth more than 10 HR in blow-outs.

There just too many to list, but suffice to say Valentin's value as a White Sox
goes beyond his SB totals, fielding % or batting ave.

People say he is a clutch hitter? Well, I say if Valentin wasn't striking out so often we wouldn't be in clutch situations so often.Your obsession with strike-outs is worrysome. As is your inability to understand that a 870 OPS with RO and 960 OPS with RISP (and those numbers will go higher since he no longer has to waste an atbat batting
right-handed) in 2001-2004 is a good thing.


And that is the reason we should shell out big bucks to keep Valentin? I'd rather get a "normal" SS and spend the money on resigning Maggs than burn it on Jose. Or take the money and pick up some good prospects. We have options, so lets use them.
What "big bucks"? 4 Mill?

Yeah, let's get rid of one of the most underrated defensive players (something that more and more sources, including BP, Rob Neyer, Diamond Mind, Cedeno RD, etc begin to recognize as advanced defensive metrics start to pour in and common sense takes effect), one of the smartest and effective baserunners, a clutch LH power hitter who is just beginning to learn how to hit LHP from the left side and whose overall effectiveness is improving as a result of giving up switch-hitting......the clubhouse leader and a blue-collar fan favorite on a team struggling for identity.............In favor of a "normal" SS like Christian Guzman, Neifi Perez, Rich Aurillia or Craig Counsell or whatever other replacement-du-jour bandied about in recent years. Brilliant.

If Valentin is such a big concern/liability on this team, then you can start the World Series parade right now.:gulp: :bandance:

Yomarei
07-22-2004, 09:35 AM
Didn't he also hit a 9th inning two run blast in one of the "in Oakland" losses to tie it up. Even though the Sox eventually lost, it was another classic Manos clutch hitting example
I was using recent examples only.

ma_deuce
07-22-2004, 10:43 AM
Who gives a **** how many times he struck out! ....There is not a single offensive statistic that is as meaningless as strike-outs.You are right. Stupid strikeouts. They are almost as meaningless as that idiotic batting average thingie that Valentin has been stuck at around and under .250 for the last four years. Home runs are all that counts.

Again, only slower: I'd rather a player K'd than, say, hit into a DOUBLE PLAY - see Tejada this year for instance. Jose only has 3 GIDP this year, but I guess you'd rather he hit into 28 DP (that would mean he accounted for 20+ "hidden" outs to say nothing of the intangible, psychological "rally-killing" effect a GIDP can have on a team and the pitcher) as Konerko did last year just so long as Jose DOESN'T STRIKE-OUT, eh? Hell, I'd rather have an 8-pitch strike-out that forces the pitcher to work and to showcase his 'out' pitch for the next batter than a 1-pitch fly-out.

Right again. I should be thanking Jose for only striking out.

And I think it's hilarious how you accuse Jose of only padding his stats in meaningless situations and I am able to off the top of my head give you no less than 8 examples in the last 20 days alone - and he was actually in a slump for the majority of that time, but the clutch hits kept on coming anyway.......Padding stats my ass, you couldn't be more off if you tried...which you did. :redneck Damn it, I just can't win. Jose's strikeouts, which have not hurt the team at all by stranding batters and ending innings, just don't compare to the occasional long ball.

What "big bucks"? 4 Mill?When the hell did 4 million become chump change? Do you know how many prospects you can get with 4 million? Hell, screw the prospects and use that money, along with the Koch cash, and resign Maggs. There are better places to spend that money.

Before this thread gets banished to Roadhouse, I am going to give up. You win, no matter what the stats are. After all, Valentin is going to get resigned. With KM and Ozzie in the front office, it is an inevitability.

Deuce

SoxxoS
07-22-2004, 10:47 AM
Strikeouts are a worth noting, b/c the ball doesn't get put in play...however...it isn't a HUGE deal. There is that first baseman over on the Phillies I heard is pretty good that strikes out a ton. Shammy, Sexson and other have put up pretty good numbers even with striking out. There aren't that many Vlads and Pujols out there, and 0 at SS.

Compare him to other A.L. Shortstops...that is all you have to do. I know fans of other teams that all love Valentin, and I have been told on more than one occasion "Whenever that guy is up, he gets a big hit." And that is coming from Cub, D'Back and Cardinal fans.

Yomarei
07-22-2004, 11:22 AM
You are right. Stupid strikeouts. They are almost as meaningless as that idiotic batting average thingie that Valentin has been stuck at around and under .250 for the last four years. Home runs are all that counts.

[/size]

Right again. I should be thanking Jose for only striking out.

Damn it, I just can't win. Jose's strikeouts, which have not hurt the team at all by stranding batters and ending innings, just don't compare to the occasional long ball.

When the hell did 4 million become chump change? Do you know how many prospects you can get with 4 million? Hell, screw the prospects and use that money, along with the Koch cash, and resign Maggs. There are better places to spend that money.

Before this thread gets banished to Roadhouse, I am going to give up. You win, no matter what the stats are. After all, Valentin is going to get resigned. With KM and Ozzie in the front office, it is an inevitability.

Deuce
You're wise to give up, Ma - you got half the claims wrong, and the other half was mostly simplistic tripe.

maurice
07-22-2004, 04:07 PM
The question is how much is he worth. Just because you don't think the Sox should break the bank to re-sign him (especially at his age) doesn't mean you don't appreciate what he has meant to this point.
Precisely. Jose always has been a mixed bag. He can't hit for average or walk enough to make up for it, but he hits an extraordinary number of HRs. He'll strike out four times with a man on third and one out, and then hit a HR in the bottom of the ninth. (Contrary to popular belief, a long-fly-ball out with a runner on third and no outs is better than a K.) He'll destroy a tough RHP one night and then get dominated by a mediocre LHP the next. He'll make ten errors in twenty games, and go errorless for the next twenty. He'll boot a routine double-play ball and then range far to his right to throw a guy out from deep in the hole.

Jose haters focus on his day-to-day mediocrity. Jose lovers focus on the relatively rare, extraordinary feat. (Most disconcerting are the fanatics who assume that the player they like will improve between the ages of 34 and 37, while simultaneously assuming that a 29-year-old, 4-time All Star, an improved 28-year-old, and an improving 25-year-old will rapidly decline.) The folks in the middle wonder whether an old guy with an inconsistent glove and a platoon-type bat, who makes outs at a higher rate than all but one other hitter on the Sox, is worth $5 million / year to an artificially cash-strapped ballclub with cheaper alternatives and plenty of younger power hitters.

maurice
07-22-2004, 04:20 PM
The man has 1440 OPS in 'Close and Late' situations this year, for crying outloud. And those are by far THE most important at bats in any given game.
Wow. I can't believe you have the gall to criticize the validity of numbers posted by others and then make an argument based on a sample size of 31 ABs. Besides, Valentin's close-and-late OPS for the previous three seasons is not really any better than his overall OPS.

Completely ignoring every other AB to focus on a handful of late, clutch situations really is missing the forest for the trees. Plenty of games (particularly Sox games) are decided long before close-and-late comes into play. Those far more numerous ABs count also.

Valentin clearly has both strengths and weaknesses. It's not unreasonable for a poster to prefer a SS who gets on base with at least average frequency, steals bases, and has a situational approach to hitting, particularly on a team desperate for that type of player.

Flight #24
07-22-2004, 04:24 PM
Jose haters focus on his day-to-day mediocrity. Jose lovers focus on the relatively rare, extraordinary feat. (Most disconcerting are the fanatics who assume that the player they like will improve between the ages of 34 and 37, while simultaneously assuming that a 29-year-old, 4-time All Star, an improved 28-year-old, and an improving 25-year-old will rapidly decline.) The folks in the middle wonder whether an old guy with an inconsistent glove and a platoon-type bat, who makes outs at a higher rate than all but one other hitter on the Sox, is worth $5 million / year to an artificially cash-strapped ballclub with cheaper alternatives and plenty of younger power hitters.
His overall OPS is very good, and even a slight decline would STILL be very good. OBP is NOT the be all/end all of stats, especially not for a power hitter (your HOF caliber power hitters excluded like Frank, Bonds, Pujols, etc.). And any respectable analysis of his defensive ability will show that while he was prone the the long stretches of errors a couple of years ago, he's now relatively steady with more bursts of greatness than mental breakdowns defensively.

And as for replacements, would that be Willie Harris, or Juan Uribe? I like both, but neither comes close to Jose's offensive ability, even assuming Jose has a decline.

No one's advocating signing him to a long term deal, but 2-3 years including some kind of buyout/team option in yr3 is not a bad risk.

SoxxoS
07-22-2004, 04:26 PM
Valentin clearly has both strengths and weaknesses. It's not unreasonable for a poster to prefer a SS who gets on base with at least average frequency, steals bases, and has a situational approach to hitting, particularly on a team desperate for that type of player.
Give us some examples of the players you want.

maurice
07-22-2004, 04:30 PM
And any respectable analysis of his defensive ability will show that while he was prone the the long stretches of errors a couple of years ago, he's now relatively steady with more bursts of greatness than mental breakdowns defensively. . . .
The ten-error-in-twenty-game streak I cited in a previous post was from THIS year.

No one's advocating signing him to a long term deal, but 2-3 years including some kind of buyout/team option in yr3 is not a bad risk.
I have no problem with a two year deal with an option. It's the $5 million / year I take issue with. Ranting and raving aside, it's at least arguable that the money would be better spent elsewhere.

maurice
07-22-2004, 04:33 PM
Give us some examples of the players you want.
I identify them when the opportunity presents itself. For example, during this past offseason, I advocated a trade with Seattle for Garcia and Guillen, but pretty much everybody else here thought that would be a bad idea.

I don't think any good SS are available right now, and I don't know who will be available this offseason, but I'm sure we'll revisit the issue at that time.

Yomarei
07-22-2004, 05:36 PM
. He'll strike out four times with a man on third and one out, and then hit a HR in the bottom of the ninthOk, so MA wasn't the only one watching the imaginary TV where Valentin only pads his stats and/or only waits until late situations to make his presence known.

So far this season Valentin is hitting .444 with 1566 OPS with a runner at 3rd base and less than 2 outs. While not as good as some others, it's still very respectable, and considering that he hardly grounds into a DP (it makes a difference when you have runners at 1st and 3d and 1 out and the "contact" guy's hard grounder is turned into an inning-ending twin-killing, or at least a force-out at home if the bases are loaded.....Had he merely struck out, that would have at least given a chance to the next hitter to come through with 2 outs, etc), he is actually more effective than numbers suggest.

. He'll destroy a tough RHP one night and then get dominated by a mediocre LHP the next .

Guess which type of performance Sox need the most - a guy who murders LHP and helps the already RH-dominated line-up route some poor southpaw 12-3, or a guy who helps his team win a game 3-2 against a tough RHP on the road, possibly with a late-inning homer....

He'll make ten errors in twenty games, and go errorless for the next twenty.He'll also lead the world in things like Ultine's ZoneRating, Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range, etc.....which incidenally was the case in both 2003 and so far in 2004. As long as the 'Stache keeps his error total under 20 or so, he'll be more than fine defensively. Last few years, he was just more focused on routine plays. Hopefully, the trend of the last 2 months continues and he cuts down on them altogether. :bandance:

Most disconcerting are the fanatics who assume that the player they like will improve between the ages of 34 and 37, while simultaneously assuming that a 29-year-old, 4-time All Star, an improved 28-year-old, and an improving 25-year-old will rapidly decline.That's because those "fanatics" like to approach things critically (ie Total baserunning being much more than just a sum of stolen bases; Total defense being more than fielding %; and all at bats most certainly not being born equal, with much heavier emphasis being placed on situations with RO/RISP/C/C&L, which is where Valentin has been very solid as a member of the White Sox) and they like to approach things individually - some players will be done by 32, while others can maintain form untl their late 30's.

Valentin is just starting to get semi-comfortable against LHP; the switch to lefty-only approach seems to have benefitted his production against RHP more than it did vs. LHP since there appears to be more rhythm and continuity in his swing - what with not having to waste time thinking about and practicing switch-hitting and all.

Valentin has always been more about instincts and aggressiveness than pure speed and agility, so his baserunning and defense shouldn't suffer much if any in the next few years....barring an injury of course.

The only thing keeping him from putting together a truly quality season offensively is the good ol' foolish tendency to hook a pitch 3 inches outside. Not only does he rob himself of hits to LF-LCF-CF-RCF, but also quite a few pitches that would be otherwise be hits down the RF line are just hard-hit foul balls, sometimes with HR distance........If somebody could ever convince Jose to level the swing a little and start going with the pitch with 2 strikes, you'll see just how effective he could be - and his clutch numbers would go from being merely "good" to "outstanding".

Of course somebody as stubborn as Jose might never want to sacrifize a little power, but then again last year nobody thought he would ever give up on switch-hitting, so who knows, he just might become a wiser hitter with age as well....

If you honestly believe Valentin has been a mediocre player in his tenure as a White Sox, then there is no use carrying this on since we'll never agree.

ma_deuce
07-22-2004, 08:19 PM
Ok, so MA wasn't the only one watching the imaginary TV where Valentin only pads his stats and/or only waits until late situations to make his presence known.
Man, do you have a hard one for me or what... Do I owe you money or something?

Look, you obviously think that Valentin is the best thing since sliced bread and I do not. I base my argument on strikeouts, BA, and OBP, and you base yours on Ultine's ZoneRating, Pinto's Probalistic Model of Range, and "Close and Late" OPS. You think my points are half wrong and half mostly simplistic tripe, and I think your points are over-complicated and inflated. I was fine with leaving it at that. If you want to take it any further, do it in Roadhouse where it belongs.

And by the way, I don't watch an imaginary TV. I use transcendental meditation to project myself through the astral plane and actually attend the game. Get it right. :tongue:

Deuce

PS: Welcome to WSI. :welcome:

Yomarei
07-22-2004, 09:17 PM
Look, you obviously think that Valentin is the best thing since sliced bread and I do notActually I think he is one hellava underrated (one of the few players who you could say is definately "better" than first glace at SB, Fielding % and BA would suggest when all the extra bases, extra outs, clutch hits and intangebles are tallied up) player who would thrive under the right circumstances where his focus/intensity kicks up a notch. It's no coincidence he was one of the two players who actually showed up for the 2000 playoffs.

I also think he definately has a lot of flaws to his game, some of which he only began to address as he got older; hopefully he continues to improve on those areas.

And, no, no hard-on for you personally, but I do find it ridiculous that you can sling around "he only comes through with meaningless hits"/"his fielding stinks"/"he will fade in the 2nd half as usual"/"he will strike out 4 times with man at 3rd and 1 out where a mere fly-ball will do"-type condemnations without slightest hesitation......when in fact the opposite is true, especially in the last couple of years. I felt compelled to correct you where you clearly hadn't done your homework.

You find my stats too isoteric for your blood? Yep, it doesn't get much more obscure or complicated than RISP OPS, C&L or GIDP.....:rolleyes:


But whatever, I think me, Maurice and you have said our collective piece. I agree let's drop this, we ain't gonna get anywhere anyways :gulp:

maurice
07-23-2004, 01:55 PM
Nah, I have a couple more points: :D:

So far this season Valentin is hitting .444 with 1566 OPS with a runner at 3rd base and less than 2 outs. While not as good as some others, it's still very respectable, and considering that he hardly grounds into a DPWow, just when I thought the 31 AB argument would be the least logical point in this thread, you come back with an argument based on a grand total of 9 ABs! That's not "isoteric, obscure or complicated." It's just completely irrelevant.

I'm very glad that Valentin (like most SS) stays out of DPs. Last year's GIDP-fest (starring Konerko, Maggs, and CLee) was ridiculous. A "critical approach" notes that Valentin makes too many outs as it is.

As long as the 'Stache keeps his error total under 20 or so, he'll be more than fine defensively. . . . The only thing keeping him from putting together a truly quality season offensively is the good ol' foolish tendency to hook a pitch 3 inches outside. . . . hopefully he continues to improve on those areas.
Agreed. If he did that over the next 2.5 years, he would be outstanding. Unfortunately, your quote should have been written in deep pink. IMHO, it's not reasonable to believe that a player will change his game for the better between the ages of 35 and 37. Unless the player's name is "Barry Bonds," the opposite proposition is more likely than not.