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View Full Version : Jose Valentin...is it time to lock him up for another 2 years?


SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 08:44 AM
I, like most WSIers, were in the "KW, you are such a moron...how can you give Jose Valentin a 5 million dollar conract???!!!" bandwagon.

That is why I am not a GM. Jose is pretty much leading AL shortstops or second in every major offensive category, minus BA. He has been solid with the glove, not costing us any games. Not to mention he is a great clubhouse guy (very underrated aspect) and runs the bases THE BEST on our team. He also has the fire to win games. But most importantly...he gets clutch hits and homers THAT COUNT. My dad is a huge Cubs fan, and whenever he sees Jose he is like "THAT is the guy I want the Cubs to get." A lot of fans of other teams say that as well.

He is in his mid thirties, so we are talking about just about a 2 years deal here, with maybe a club option for 3. Don't forget, we have nothing in the minors ready to contribute at the SS position. I say give Jose his props, then sign him to a 11 million dollar/2 year extention.

ND_Sox_Fan
07-13-2004, 08:52 AM
I couldn't agree more. You pretty much said it all ... clutch, leader, hitter, baserunner, and a pretty decent fielder.

OG4LIFE
07-13-2004, 08:53 AM
before the year, i was on the same "jose isnt worth 5 million" bandwagon, and like you, i have to agree he is worth 5 mil a year, for at least 2 more years. but...

i can easily see jose being let go (either straight free agency or a trade) because a cheaper option (uribe) is available, and our team really likes having that option (the cheap one)

what about the ss that we got from the marlins in the billy "the kid" koch trade?

Basten
07-13-2004, 09:09 AM
He is 34 with a bad leg, ok.

Aging process is particularly tough on big-swinging pull hitters, so Jose is in a high-risk category at his point - and I don't see someone as stubborn as him revamping his plate approach - hell, it took him 20 years to finally give up hitting right-handed. LMAO.

Give him 6 Mill over 2 years, with some at-bat-based incentives. Or let him leave if he insists on getting a big payola, then move Uribe to SS.

soxtalker
07-13-2004, 09:23 AM
He is 34 with a bad leg, ok.

Aging process is particularly tough on big-swinging pull hitters, so Jose is in a high-risk category at his point - and I don't see someone as stubborn as him revamping his plate approach - hell, it took him 20 years to finally give up hitting right-handed. LMAO.

Give him 6 Mill over 2 years, with some at-bat-based incentives. Or let him leave if he insists on getting a big payola, then move Uribe to SS.
I pretty much agree. I love the way he is playing this year, and his presence on the team is of tremendous value. But Jose is on the downside of his career. I look at this team, and I see a lot of age. That translates into experience and immediate production right now. But it can quickly turn into just plain "old" in a year or two.

Iguana775
07-13-2004, 09:24 AM
3 years/8M, IMO.

Procol Harum
07-13-2004, 10:10 AM
One year, $3 mill, + 3 mill in incentives--and that's if they don't ditch him totally. While he has exceeded our expectations thus far--age strikes players down in this game like an unexpected shot from a sniper. We have no assurances that he'll keep this pace up even into September. One can't afford to get overly-sentimental about your players when you're in the GM seat. We know Schueller's vulnerability was his protective coddling of his "can't miss" young superstars--but that's preferable to a weakness at the other end of the career spectrum.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 10:16 AM
He is 34 with a bad leg, ok.

Aging process is particularly tough on big-swinging pull hitters, so Jose is in a high-risk category at his point - and I don't see someone as stubborn as him revamping his plate approach - hell, it took him 20 years to finally give up hitting right-handed. LMAO.

Give him 6 Mill over 2 years, with some at-bat-based incentives. Or let him leave if he insists on getting a big payola, then move Uribe to SS.
The aging process is working pretty well for Jose, as last I checked he was having a career year.

Kadafi311
07-13-2004, 10:19 AM
Absolutely, the guy is a great SS and one of the most underrated at his position in all of baseball. Which I suppose is a blessing and a curse...

Blessing because if people started mentioning him in the same breath with Tejada, Jeter and Garciaparra he'd probably command a much higher salary.

Curse because, in my opinion, he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as those folks.

Not to mention the "Jose, Jose, Jose" chant is badass :D:

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 10:24 AM
One year, $3 mill, + 3 mill in incentives--and that's if they don't ditch him totally. While he has exceeded our expectations thus far--age strikes players down in this game like an unexpected shot from a sniper. We have no assurances that he'll keep this pace up even into September. One can't afford to get overly-sentimental about your players when you're in the GM seat. We know Schueller's vulnerability was his protective coddling of his "can't miss" young superstars--but that's preferable to a weakness at the other end of the career spectrum.
He is 34, not 38. Health and training have come a long way and are allowing players to play well into their 30s at a high level. He is only 34. 2 more years makes him 36. He is in great shape. As stated above, he is having a huge year this year, at 34. It's not like he is in steady decline.

Basten
07-13-2004, 10:26 AM
3 years/8M, IMO.I can live with that for sure.

Of course if he continues to field like he has in the last 7-8 weeks, and stops trying to pull LHP so much (he hits a lot of long drives that go way foul, sometimes with HR distance, against lefties, but if he makes one adjustment, then watch out), he'll quickly price himself out of the Sox range.

Remember Edgar Renteria is said to be looking for 10-12 Mill a year, and given that Renteria only had 1 year where he produced anything remotely close to the All-Star level, Valentin could say that he is worth at least half that.

Basten
07-13-2004, 10:36 AM
He is 34, not 38. Health and training have come a long way and are allowing players to play well into their 30s at a high level. He is only 34. 2 more years makes him 36. He is in great shape. As stated above, he is having a huge year this year, at 34. It's not like he is in steady decline.Sorry, but that simply isn't true. As I said in another thread, you can't circumvent the laws of physiology.

Valentin could play another 12 years like Julio Franco....or he may be "done" next week ala Robbie Alomar. You simply cannot predict these things, nutrition fitness or not.

He has a bad leg -- a lot of his value is derived from his arm/range at SS and from aggressive base-running. At 34, he may not have much left in his legs. Sorry.

8 Mill over 3 years is a good offer, but it may not be enough. We'll see what numbers he'll end up with by year's end, and where the team is in the off-season payroll-wise.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 10:39 AM
Sorry, but that simply isn't true. As I said in another thread, you can't circumvent the laws of physiology.

Valentin could play another 12 years like Julio Franco....or he may be "done" next week ala Robbie Alomar. You simply cannot predict these things, nutrition fitness or not.
Exactly. You can say that about any player...they can play 12 more years, or they can be done tomorrow. Your point doesn't make any sense.

He is doing pretty well with his "bad leg" (Which I would love to have a source on...b/c if you are talking about the hamstring, that was 100% healed) this year.

Basten
07-13-2004, 10:41 AM
The aging process is working pretty well for Jose, as last I checked he was having a career year.
That's more of a testament to how much this dumb-ass had underachieved throughout his career....than it is to whether or not he is getting better with age.

Again, it's all about odds/risks. You pay him 6-7 Mill, he'll tear the hamsting tomorrow and you'll be crying about how much he handicaps the payroll.

Ok fine, if he helps lead the Sox into ALCS or even WS....then we could talk big money. Until then, no dice.

Basten
07-13-2004, 10:43 AM
Exactly. You can say that about any player...they can play 12 more years, or they can be done tomorrow. Your point doesn't make any sense.
Likelyhood of him playing another 12 years at high level: 5%

Likelyhood of him rapidly declining or getting re-injured: 50%


BTW....That hamstrings hasn't been "100% healed" since early 2001. It's been an on and off problem he's played with since then. His SB totals and % have taken a hit in that time span for a reason.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 11:09 AM
Likelyhood of him playing another 12 years at high level: 5%

Likelyhood of him rapidly declining or getting re-injured: 50%


BTW....That hamstrings hasn't been "100% healed" since early 2001. It's been an on and off problem he's played with since then. His SB totals and % have taken a hit in that time span for a reason.
I don't want 12, I just want 2 at a similar level as to this year...and I think he can do that.

34 Inch Stick
07-13-2004, 11:13 AM
IIRC he had to sit out two weeks this year with a hamstring injury suffered early in the season in Tampa. I think Frank also injured his on the same day.

Again IIRC, when Jose signed this current contract, he thought it would take him to the end of his career.

While I love what Jose has been doing in the last 2 months, are we really that far removed from the .235 10 errors first month and a half? Everyone knows it is feast or famine with Jose. Right now it is feast time.

Let him play out this contract and go into free agency. If the market is right I can see bringing him back for 2 years. If not, it's Uribe and Harris up the middle. This cheap alternative creates more room for either Ordonez to be resigned or a new outfielder to be brought in.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 11:15 AM
Baseball is a game of streaks for most players...it's feast or famine for most. All I know is Jose is 1st or 2nd in every major offensive category for AL shortstops.

If Uribe and Harris are our starting 2B/SS next year, we are in huge trouble...with or without Maggs.

Flight #24
07-13-2004, 11:17 AM
IMO the right #s & comparable is something liek Carlos Guillen - has been decent, but not great, and is having the best year of his career, or close to it. Carlos is younger and is apparently developing, but Jose's a great leader and has apparently made a change in his hitting that's resulted in his improved #s.

Guillen got $14mil/3yrs, Give Jose the same but over 2 or 2+mutual option. I'd say 8.5/2 with incentives that can push it to 10/2, and a mutual option.

voodoochile
07-13-2004, 11:23 AM
Sorry, but that simply isn't true. As I said in another thread, you can't circumvent the laws of physiology.

Valentin could play another 12 years like Julio Franco....or he may be "done" next week ala Robbie Alomar. You simply cannot predict these things, nutrition fitness or not.

He has a bad leg -- a lot of his value is derived from his arm/range at SS and from aggressive base-running. At 34, he may not have much left in his legs. Sorry.

8 Mill over 3 years is a good offer, but it may not be enough. We'll see what numbers he'll end up with by year's end, and where the team is in the off-season payroll-wise.
Where'd this bad leg stuff come from? Am I missing something? He had hammy problems a few years ago when they moved him to CF, but I haven't heard anything about the rest of it. You got some kind of link?

compromise:

2 years, $8M Club option for a third for $4M. Throw in some incentive numbers for AB.

DickAllen72
07-13-2004, 11:50 AM
2 years @ $2.75million per yr.

Dolanski
07-13-2004, 11:52 AM
Jose is my favorite player on the Sox and has the best porno 'stache in all of baseball, but he isn't staying. He's 34, and they have another player on the team who is a sparkplug and whose natural position is SS and who only costs about 400G a year: Juan Uribe. They brought him here to replace Jose. Its pretty obvious.

Juan is young, and a solid hitter. Willie has been pegged as the 2b of the future for the team and has shown signs of being ready to handle starting duties. Get used to the Uribe to Harris to Konerko because its going to be a Sox staple for a few years. Baseball econ 101: 34 and 5 mil are not 25 and 400G.

I would love to see Jose stay because he is the heart and soul of this team, but the writing is on the wall. And heck, it could be worse, it could be Mike Caruso or Royce Clayton.

Basten
07-13-2004, 12:09 PM
Jose is my favorite player on the Sox and has the best porno 'stache in all of baseball, but he isn't staying. He's 34, and they have another player on the team who is a sparkplug and whose natural position is SS and who only costs about 400G a year: Juan Uribe. They brought him here to replace Jose. Its pretty obvious.

Juan is young, and a solid hitter. Willie has been pegged as the 2b of the future for the team and has shown signs of being ready to handle starting duties. Get used to the Uribe to Harris to Konerko because its going to be a Sox staple for a few years. Baseball econ 101: 34 and 5 mil are not 25 and 400G.

I would love to see Jose stay because he is the heart and soul of this team, but the writing is on the wall. And heck, it could be worse, it could be Mike Caruso or Royce Clayton.Uribe is arbit eligible after 2004, and if he gets on another hot streak, he'll get his 2 Mill if not more.

I think it all depends on Willie. If he hits like he did in the 2 month span from mid-April to mid-June, then Jose may be expendable. But if he hits like he hit the rest of his (admittedly short) ML career, then he's a utility guy and Sox might have to retain Valentin's services.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 12:10 PM
Jose is my favorite player on the Sox and has the best porno 'stache in all of baseball, but he isn't staying. He's 34, and they have another player on the team who is a sparkplug and whose natural position is SS and who only costs about 400G a year: Juan Uribe. They brought him here to replace Jose. Its pretty obvious.

Juan is young, and a solid hitter. Willie has been pegged as the 2b of the future for the team and has shown signs of being ready to handle starting duties. Get used to the Uribe to Harris to Konerko because its going to be a Sox staple for a few years. Baseball econ 101: 34 and 5 mil are not 25 and 400G.

I would love to see Jose stay because he is the heart and soul of this team, but the writing is on the wall. And heck, it could be worse, it could be Mike Caruso or Royce Clayton.
KW is not going to be content with Uribe unless he gets consistant from now until the end of the season.
Juan is young, but I wouldn't call him a solid hitter, considering after his hot April/early May (he is a notoriously hot starter) he got about 4 hits in all of June.

Too many people think 34 is the be all end all. It isn't. He has AT LEAST 2 more solid years in him. 34 is not 40.

Wanne
07-13-2004, 12:21 PM
I couldn't agree more. You pretty much said it all ... clutch, leader, hitter, baserunner, and a pretty decent fielder.

Not only that...but he's a pretty potent left-handed bat in the lineup that the Sox sorely need.

Dadawg_77
07-13-2004, 12:37 PM
Jose won't stay for less then 5 mill per. I just don't see him taking a salary cut to stay with the Sox, hell he may end up on the North Side next year. Anyone know what is would take to insure a 3 yr/ $15 million deal?


Juan Uribe won't cut it at SS if he becomes the starters we will have the second coming of the Choice on hand.

hawkjt
07-13-2004, 12:38 PM
The lefty point is a good one. If Jose is gone next year and we resign Maggs and Rowand solidifies center we would have Willie as our only lefty stick. That is just not acceptable. This is a dilemma cuz we all have cursed Jose at times but the intangibles are hard to put a number on. I say if he finishes decent give him the two years with option for third at around 4 mil

daveeym
07-13-2004, 12:39 PM
This is not even worth a debate, unless he's involved in a trade it's 90% certain he'll be back, KW, JR, Oz love him, he loves this team, he's not gonna bolt in free agency because i doubt anyone would drastically out bid us for his services and he'd take slightly less to stay here. You got a great platoon system working right now with the three amigos and uribe can probably do with another year of seasoning and platooning before he steps in full time. Jose will go the sandy alomar path and be coaching for the sox when it's all said and done.

Terminated
07-13-2004, 12:44 PM
I donít know, but Iíve always been a fan of Jose since he joined the White Sox. He is having a good year this season and I think he still has a lot to show in the 2nd half. Would I like to see him back in white and gold next year? I sure would.

pearso66
07-13-2004, 12:57 PM
I think Jose would take 3 mil a year to stay with the Sox. He has stated he wants to finish his career here, while he could have been just saying that for the media, I really believe that he means it. I was in the category at the beginning of the year that, while Jose isn't worth $5 mil, Id rather overpay him than lose him. I say give him a 2 year deal at $8 mil total, with an option for a 3rd year at another $4 mil. I don't care if Uribe is our SS of the future, and Willie is our 2nd baseman of the future, Jose is the SS now, and hopefully for the next 2 years. If Uribe surpasses him next year, great, but its a great backup plan just in case he doesnt.

MisterB
07-13-2004, 01:25 PM
Where'd this bad leg stuff come from? Am I missing something? He had hammy problems a few years ago when they moved him to CF, but I haven't heard anything about the rest of it. You got some kind of link?From ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/transactions?team=chw):

April 21, 2004

Placed shortstop Jose Valentin on the 15-day disabled list with a pulled left hamstring; purchased the contract of infielder Kelly Dransfeldt from Charlotte of the International League (AAA); announced the resignation of Rob Gallas, senior vice president, marketing and broadcasting.

habibharu
07-13-2004, 01:32 PM
Jose is my favorite player on the Sox and has the best porno 'stache in all of baseball, but he isn't staying. He's 34, and they have another player on the team who is a sparkplug and whose natural position is SS and who only costs about 400G a year: Juan Uribe. They brought him here to replace Jose. Its pretty obvious.

Juan is young, and a solid hitter. Willie has been pegged as the 2b of the future for the team and has shown signs of being ready to handle starting duties. Get used to the Uribe to Harris to Konerko because its going to be a Sox staple for a few years. Baseball econ 101: 34 and 5 mil are not 25 and 400G.

I would love to see Jose stay because he is the heart and soul of this team, but the writing is on the wall. And heck, it could be worse, it could be Mike Caruso or Royce Clayton. i dont know if willie can handle 2b on a permanent basis. he's already lost his job this year.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 01:56 PM
i dont know if willie can handle 2b on a permanent basis. he's already lost his job this year.
Unless Willie proves this past month was the aberration, not the first month, KW can't/won't count on Willie for anything.

My guess is the last month is more like the regular Willie. Remember, speed is not an asset unless you know how to use it.

Dolanski
07-13-2004, 02:13 PM
Jose is not young, and if he wants to finish his career here, he is going to want a multi year deal. Keep in mind that he is on pace to put up career highs in a lot of offensive categories and that will draw interests from other teams. Also, his current salary was a discount because he wanted to stay with the Sox.

What all this means is his price will most likely go up, and say what you will about loyalty, money talks. I would love to see him do the Sandy Alomar thing and play tutor, but I just don't see it happening. He has too much left in the tank for that. Frankly, I think the more likely outcome is Jose leaves the same way Ozzie did.

HomerCoach
07-13-2004, 02:23 PM
Jose is not going to be replaced by our farm system, he's got to be resigned, or a BIG left-handed slugger must be acquired in FA. We need some lefties.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 02:25 PM
Also, his current salary was a discount because he wanted to stay with the Sox.
Where is that written? I haven't read anywhere that he got offered more than 5 million.

Dadawg_77
07-13-2004, 02:38 PM
Where is that written? I haven't read anywhere that he got offered more than 5 million.
The O's offered him a larger deal but he chose to stay with the Sox instead. I am not sure on the exactly what the O's offered Jose.

Scotty347
07-13-2004, 02:38 PM
Where is that written? I haven't read anywhere that he got offered more than 5 million.
Baltimore offered him a bigger contract but he decided to stay with the Sox. This was a few years ago. It was public knowledge at the time.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 02:45 PM
Baltimore offered him a bigger contract but he decided to stay with the Sox. This was a few years ago. It was public knowledge at the time.
Oh yeah, I recall that...but that was a few years ago. I thought we were talking about last year.

Gumshoe
07-13-2004, 02:54 PM
this year is turning out is making me look like a genius. We've finally found out how much this guy means to our team?

Paulie isn't worth his contract?
Aaron is a bad CF?


Gumshoe is 3-3. Shingo time made it 4-4.

G

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 03:23 PM
this year is turning out is making me look like a genius. We've finally found out how much this guy means to our team?

Paulie isn't worth his contract?
Aaron is a bad CF?


Gumshoe is 3-3. Shingo time made it 4-4.

G
Your point would have a lot more validity if you included the actual threads you stated these things...although I remember you and Randar arguing over Rowand.

Brian26
07-13-2004, 03:30 PM
Jose is an enigma.

When he strikes out 8 times in a row, you hate him.

When he hits game-winning/late-inning homeruns, you love him.

It's hard to say either way. This year, though, his defense has been pretty damn good, and you can't find many shortstops in baseball with 28-30 homers a year.

SoxFan76
07-13-2004, 03:36 PM
Jose could hit .200 for all I care. He is clutch, and that is something very valuable to have.

:hawk

"Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it"

jabrch
07-13-2004, 03:40 PM
Jose could hit .200 for all I care. He is clutch, and that is something very valuable to have.

:hawk

"Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it"
Billy Beane (and the FOBB) will tell you that there is no such thing as clutch. You are biased based on what you see - and need a more objective way to measure performance.

I'd tell them to stick in in the poopers. Different players handle pressure in different ways. Jose is one who hits best under pressure. I like him!

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 03:48 PM
Jose is an enigma.

When he strikes out 8 times in a row, you hate him.

When he hits game-winning/late-inning homeruns, you love him.

It's hard to say either way. This year, though, his defense has been pretty damn good, and you can't find many shortstops in baseball with 28-30 homers a year.
Everyone goes through slumps (and that K streak was when he first started swinging left handed full time). Look at where he is at at the end of the year...probably top 5 in 4 of 5 offensive categories in the majors...

FarmerAndy
07-13-2004, 03:59 PM
No way to I give him a 2 year contract.

I love the way Jose has been playing lately, but we've seen it before. At his age, I would go year by year with him, and don't pay too much. No multi-year deals.

SoxxoS
07-13-2004, 04:02 PM
No way to I give him a 2 year contract.

I love the way Jose has been playing lately, but we've seen it before. At his age, I would go year by year with him, and don't pay too much. No multi-year deals.
Are you saying that 34 is too old to give a 2 year contract? I can list the guys over 34 that are pretty good, if you want...