PDA

View Full Version : Beware of the Tigers


owensmouth
07-12-2004, 01:52 AM
In various post on this board, I keep reading about 4 games with Oakland, 3 games with Anaheim and or 6 games with the Bosox.

Nobody has mentioned the 19 games we have upcoming with the Tigers.

I think a lot of folks here are looking foreward to beating up on the team from Detroit.

Last year Detroit was pathetic, and we still had our problems with them. As the Twins can attest, this isn't last year's Tigers.

They may turn out to be a big impediment. I hope not. Let's watch out for overconfidence.

doublem23
07-12-2004, 01:54 AM
As the Twins can attest, this isn't last year's Tigers.

As any of us can attest, this isn't last year's White Sox. Yeah the Tigers are much improved from last year, but I'm not going to be losing too much sleep over 19 games against a team that is still 3 games under .500.

Mohoney
07-12-2004, 02:04 AM
In various post on this board, I keep reading about 4 games with Oakland, 3 games with Anaheim and or 6 games with the Bosox.

Nobody has mentioned the 19 games we have upcoming with the Tigers.

I think a lot of folks here are looking foreward to beating up on the team from Detroit.

Last year Detroit was pathetic, and we still had our problems with them. As the Twins can attest, this isn't last year's Tigers.

They may turn out to be a big impediment. I hope not. Let's watch out for overconfidence.

We do have 14 more games with the Royals, though. They resemble the 2003 Tigers.

With the Tigers being tied for 3rd, only 5.5 games out, I don't think overconfidence will be an issue. We will be treating them as a threat, not a doormat.

Plus, when we have played Cleveland this year, they have played us very tough. I think we have learned our lesson on what happens when you take division opponents too lightly.

That being said, we do need to take care of business against Detroit and Cleveland, two teams that look like they are well ahead of schedule in their rebuilding programs.

TDog
07-12-2004, 02:33 AM
...Last year Detroit was pathetic, and we still had our problems with them. As the Twins can attest, this isn't last year's Tigers.

They may turn out to be a big impediment. I hope not. Let's watch out for overconfidence.
As tough as the Tigers played the Sox last year, I doubt that anyone is overconfident.

jordan23ventura
07-12-2004, 02:44 AM
Last year Detroit was pathetic, and we still had our problems with them. As the Twins can attest, this isn't last year's Tigers.
.
And this isn't last year's Twins, either. Granted, this year's Sox team is much better, but if we were facing last years Twins we wouldn't have swept them in the CrapDome. The Twins are weak, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Sox start to pull away with this thing and leave Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detriot to fight for 2nd.

soxtalker
07-12-2004, 06:20 AM
And this isn't last year's Twins, either. Granted, this year's Sox team is much better, but if we were facing last years Twins we wouldn't have swept them in the CrapDome. The Twins are weak, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Sox start to pull away with this thing and leave Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detriot to fight for 2nd.
I hope you are right. However, I also wouldn't be incredibly surprised if Cleveland or Detroit were to catch us in the second half and either make it a 2-way (or 3-way or 4-way) fight. Or even worse, if one of those two made a big run and moved ahead of us. Neither of those teams has much to lose. They are young, and the future looks bright to them. I fear that there is too much focus on just the Twins on this board and in the media.

harwar
07-12-2004, 08:43 AM
I also wouldn't be incredibly surprised if Cleveland or Detroit were to catch us in the second half and either make it a 2-way (or 3-way or 4-way) fight. Or even worse, if one of those two made a big run and moved ahead of us.I think it would have to be the indians as the have FIVE players:?: going to the allstar game they must be the best team in the central.

misty60481
07-12-2004, 08:56 AM
Sounds like we may not be the weak division in a couple of years

Mickster
07-12-2004, 09:35 AM
As any of us can attest, this isn't last year's White Sox. Yeah the Tigers are much improved from last year, but I'm not going to be losing too much sleep over 19 games against a team that is still 3 games under .500.
You should. :kukoo:

That is what got us into trouble with them last year.

NonetheLoaiza
07-12-2004, 09:39 AM
Hopefully the White Sox will take the Tigers more seriously this year because they are so close to .500. It seemed that in years past the Sox kind of saw the 19 games against the Tigers as a mere formality. So, maybe with the 'hype' that is around the Tigers, the White Sox will play better ball against them.

Tragg
07-12-2004, 09:51 AM
The bottom line is that our division's much improved
It's a better division than the east and I'd like to hear Gammons say just once that the Redsox get to pad their win totals with 18 games against baltimore and toronto

Terminated
07-12-2004, 09:51 AM
How many times will the Twinkies face the Yankees and other teams that are above .500 in the second half? Iíll be happy if the Sox try to take at least 12 out of 19 from the Tigers (Iíll live with 10 out of 19 as well) as long as they win 2 out of 3 in each series. I really canít see the Sox falling behind in 3rd place this year. I have faith in this yearís Sox and really think they will do a lot better in the 2nd half.

Dadawg_77
07-12-2004, 10:26 AM
You should. :kukoo:

That is what got us into trouble with them last year.
Mickster the Sox traditional magic number is 77, but in reality it is 71.

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html

elrod
07-12-2004, 10:35 AM
The Tigers actually look a lot like the Indians - some bigtime punch in the middle of the lineup, a couple good starters and a crappy bullpen. The Indians have better starters and a worse bullpen than the Tigers, and the Indians' lineup is more balanced than the Tigers. But the teams are very close to one another. I don't see either ending up with a winning record. This is a two-team race, which doesn't mean the Tigers won't cause trouble for the Sox.

Mickster
07-12-2004, 10:56 AM
Mickster the Sox traditional magic number is 77, but in reality it is 71.

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.htmlHow do they go about calculating this? I have always known the formula to be:

Magic Number = 163 - (Wins from team in 1st) - (Losses from Team in 2nd)

hawkjt
07-12-2004, 11:03 AM
Hopefully the tigers will trade Urbina soon (maybe to sox) and further weaken that bullpen. The lead baseball in hitting and have a good rivalry going with the sox dating back to the Brawl of 2000. It is all out there for us to win but no lapses are allowed. 5.5 games back as the indians and tigers are- that aint that much over 78 games.

Dadawg_77
07-12-2004, 11:25 AM
How do they go about calculating this? I have always known the formula to be:

Magic Number = 163 - (Wins from team in 1st) - (Losses from Team in 2nd)
The traditional magic number is based on the question if second place team won the rest of their games, how many would the first place team have to win in order remain in first. It doesn't take into account what happens if first and second place teams play each other. The RIOT system does. The Sox play the Twins nine more times this season. So if the Twins were to win the remaining 75 games they have, the Sox could only win 69 games. And if the Sox were to win 77 games they would have to beat the Twins 8 times. Under the traditional formula the games where first and second place teams play each other counted as two magic number games, in the RIOT system just one.

kjhanson
07-12-2004, 11:41 AM
The only "real" threat in this division is Minnesota.

Cleveland has absolutely no depth and their starters are overachieving. Cliff Lee may be nine and one, but has given up an unordinate amoount of walks. Nearly one every other inning. Once teams become more familiar with him and start putting the ball in play, he will fade pretty fast. C.C. Sabbathia and Jake Westbrook have been fine pitchers and willl probably continue to do well, but it won't be enough. When you're throwing Scott Elarton (0-8 8.33) and Jason Davis (2-6 6.00) 2 out of every five days, you don't have a chance. They're almost guaranteed to lose those two starts. And with the way the bullpen is throwing, the other three starts are put in jeapordy as well. Granted, their offense has been spectacular (great mix of LH and RH), and their defense seemed to sparkle against us. However, they're nothing better than a .500 team. They have literally just three starters that give them a chance to win. And in a competitive division, those starters MUST win every game they pitch, which is near impossible.



The Tigers are an absolute joke to be concerned about. They got swept by the Rockies. They beat up on Toronto when Toronto was the worst team in baseball. They'e only gone 4-6 against the Royals. They got swept by Baltimore at home. I mean, I could go on and on about the bad teams they've been beaten by, but it'd be beating a dead horse. Three guys in their rotation have an ERA over five and statistically speaking, their best starter has been... Nate Robertson? A converted closer. Raise your hand if you think Ivan Rodriguez will hit .370 in the second half. Also, raise your hand if you think Carlos Guillen will hit .325. Bobby Higginson is not what he used to be (5 HR). Their corner IF's are both hitting .233. Alex Sanchez is getting on base at a nice rate, but isn't stealing bases near as effectively as last year. Dimitri Young is coming back and Rondell White is swinging a nice bat, but all in all, their lineup is not scary. Put a mediocre offense with a bad pitching staff, sprinkle in a lot of luck and 3 games under .500 might be pressing a little bit.

The bottom line is that these teams are overachieving, as evidenced by their grades on CBSSportsline. Do you really think the Tigers will play "A" baseball the rest of the way? Until Cleveland solves their bullpen problems and acquires another starter, they'll be scuffling to stay above .500. We're 29-19 (.604) with Magglio in the lineup and have by far the best pitching staff in the division. Just think..if the Sox play .548 ball in the second half again (and I consider the first half underperforming), then the Indians and Tigers must both play .626 ball to even compete with us. Only one team has a winning percentage that high...Sorry, no matter how well the Indians or Tigers play in the second half, they're no New York Yankees.

Skorch
07-12-2004, 12:59 PM
...(we) have by far the best pitching staff in the division.
How are you determining this? According to the team aggregate stats at ESPN.com the Twins are tied for 2nd in ERA with Oakland (4.16, Red Sox have a team ERA of 3.89). The White Sox are tied for 6th with Texas at 4.59. The Twins are 3rd in WHIP (1.35) behind the Red Sox and Yankees, lead the league in K/BB at 2.63, 3rd in K/9 with 6.8 (behind Anaheim and Boston) and 4th in OPS allowed at .746, behind Boston, Anaheim, and NY.

Chicago does lead the Twins in BAA, ranked 11th overall at .271, Twins at .273. Detroit "leads" our division in this category, tied for 6th, league-wide with .270.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, I'm just stating that the current numbers (operative words, those) don't support your assertion. The real difference is your team actually has an offense that can support your pitchers, and are a legitimate threat to win the division, with or without Frank Thomas.

WSox8404
07-12-2004, 01:03 PM
As any of us can attest, this isn't last year's White Sox. Yeah the Tigers are much improved from last year, but I'm not going to be losing too much sleep over 19 games against a team that is still 3 games under .500.
Me neither. If we hold Pudge down, we can hold down their offense. And their pitching is still suspect. I say we go 13-6 against them.

Dadawg_77
07-12-2004, 01:06 PM
How are you determining this? According to the team aggregate stats at ESPN.com the Twins are tied for 2nd in ERA with Oakland (4.16, Red Sox have a team ERA of 3.89). The White Sox are tied for 6th with Texas at 4.59. The Twins are 3rd in WHIP (1.35) behind the Red Sox and Yankees, lead the league in K/BB at 2.63, 3rd in K/9 with 6.8 (behind Anaheim and Boston) and 4th in OPS allowed at .746, behind Boston, Anaheim, and NY.

Chicago does lead the Twins in BAA, ranked 11th overall at .271, Twins at .273. Detroit "leads" our division in this category, tied for 6th, league-wide with .270.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, I'm just stating that the current numbers (operative words, those) don't support your assertion. The real difference is your team actually has an offense that can support your pitchers, and are a legitimate threat to win the division, with or without Frank Thomas.
The problem with looking at number in the past this year is that you take in horrible fifth stater starts which shouldn't be happening any more. Take those out and add in what you think Freddy would have done, and you will have a better base for comparison.

kjhanson
07-12-2004, 02:04 PM
The problem with looking at number in the past this year is that you take in horrible fifth stater starts which shouldn't be happening any more. Take those out and add in what you think Freddy would have done, and you will have a better base for comparison.
Exactly!

You also have to take into account the ballpark that we play in. Comerica park is one of the largest ballparks in all of baseball. Accordingly, the Tiger's overall pitching staff reflects this. Although individually, they do not seem very good. I should have corrected myself when I said pitching "staff", I meant "rotation"... Take a look at the numbers:

Sox Five starters (Garcia included): 35-26 (.574) 4.24
Twins: 25-29 (.463!) 4.29
Tigers: 31-27 (.534) 4.85
Indians: 22-23 (.489) 4.64

HomeFish
07-12-2004, 02:11 PM
I'm still worried about the remaining Cleveland games. We haven't exactly had an easy time with them.

Dadawg_77
07-12-2004, 02:24 PM
Exactly!

You also have to take into account the ballpark that we play in. Comerica park is one of the largest ballparks in all of baseball. Accordingly, the Tiger's overall pitching staff reflects this. Although individually, they do not seem very good. I should have corrected myself when I said pitching "staff", I meant "rotation"... Take a look at the numbers:

Sox Five starters (Garcia included): 35-26 (.574) 4.24
Twins: 25-29 (.463!) 4.29
Tigers: 31-27 (.534) 4.85
Indians: 22-23 (.489) 4.64
Did you account for Garcia pitching 8 games in SafeCo?

kjhanson
07-12-2004, 03:47 PM
Did you account for Garcia pitching 8 games in SafeCo?
No, and Detroit's lucky I didn't account for their 40 some odd starts in Comerica...Discounting Garcia's work with the Mariners, our new numbers shake out like this:

31-19 (.620) 4.46

The point is, comparing ERA in different ballparks is like apples and oranges. Comparing wins and losses is not. The fact is, we're the only team in the divison with 4 starters that can take us into the 7th innning on any given night with a chance to win the game.

34rancher
07-12-2004, 04:05 PM
Hopefully the tigers will trade Urbina soon (maybe to sox) and further weaken that bullpen. The lead baseball in hitting and have a good rivalry going with the sox dating back to the Brawl of 2000. It is all out there for us to win but no lapses are allowed. 5.5 games back as the indians and tigers are- that aint that much over 78 games.
This is what I keep hoping for is that Detroit goes on a selling spree for the year before we play them. They scare me. Pudge can carry teams and his attitude is infectious. Good thing we didn't go get him before the season.....Heck, can we trade for him now???