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View Full Version : Can Frank get 3000 career hits?


Mohoney
07-12-2004, 02:07 AM
With 436 career home runs, Frank is a lock for the 500 club. I was thinking that he might also have a shot at 3,000 hits. He has 2,113 right now.

The odds might be long since he walks so much, but if he can stay healthy and get another 3,000+ at-bats, he could have a chance to vault himself into a real exclusive club with only Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Eddie Murray as both 3,000 hits and 500 homers.

If he can get 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, finish in the top 10 in walks, and sport a career batting average of .300+ and a career OBP of .400+, all those arguments about him spending significant time at DH become irrelevant. He wouldn't just be a first-ballot HOFer, he would be the second coming of Ted Williams.

Aidan
07-12-2004, 02:16 AM
500 HRs is a lock, even if Frank has surgery and is done for this season. As long as he stays a DH (hopefully on the White Sox), he can play until he's 40. 3000 hits may be a bit of a stretch though, especially since Frank walks so much.

doublem23
07-12-2004, 02:22 AM
Frank entered this season averaging 179 hits per 162 games (http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thomafr04.shtml). If he needs 887 more hits, that means would need 803 games (just just under 5 full-seasons) to reach 3,000 at his career average pace. Keep in mind, since 1998, he has not even come within 20 hits of 179 except when he hit a career-high 191 in 2000. Take the average number of hits he's had in 1998 (155), 1999 (148), 2002 (132), and 2003 (146) and you have 145 hits per season and change. We won't count 2001 against him, as he was out for the entire year with a career-threatening injury. At that rate (145.25 H/162 G), he'll need 990 games to reach 3,000, which is six full seasons plus the first 16 or 17 of a seventh. (meaning he'll be what? 41?).

I agree the Big Hurt has the 62 more homers needed left for 500 if he stays healthy, but I am very wary about his chances at 3,000 hits; especially if Magglio walks after this year, leaving Frank with some non-threatening protection in that line-up. If the Sox, however, find a way to get another boppin' bat in here, then there is a slim chance, IMO.

Mohoney
07-12-2004, 02:24 AM
500 HRs is a lock, even if Frank has surgery and is done for this season. As long as he stays a DH (hopefully on the White Sox), he can play until he's 40. 3000 hits may be a bit of a stretch though, especially since Frank walks so much.

Tha's the thing. He would need at-bats, and since a fairly large chunk of his plate appearances are walks, he might not get them.

Still, he's a lock for 500 homers, he's a lock for a career OBP of .400+. If he keeps the career AVG above .300, those 3 things should make him a first ballot lock. I'm just saying that if he somehow manages to get 3,000 hits, it would remove all doubt.

Mohoney
07-12-2004, 02:36 AM
Frank entered this season averaging 179 hits per 162 games (http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thomafr04.shtml). If he needs 887 more hits, that means would need 803 games (just just under 5 full-seasons) to reach 3,000 at his career average pace. Keep in mind, since 1998, he has not even come within 20 hits of 179 except when he hit a career-high 191 in 2000. Take the average number of hits he's had in 1998 (155), 1999 (148), 2002 (132), and 2003 (146) and you have 145 hits per season and change. We won't count 2001 against him, as he was out for the entire year with a career-threatening injury. At that rate (145.25 H/162 G), he'll need 990 games to reach 3,000, which is six full seasons plus the first 16 or 17 of a seventh. (meaning he'll be what? 41?).

I agree the Big Hurt has the 62 more homers needed left for 500 if he stays healthy, but I am very wary about his chances at 3,000 hits; especially if Magglio walks after this year, leaving Frank with some non-threatening protection in that line-up. If the Sox, however, find a way to get another boppin' bat in here, then there is a slim chance, IMO.

Maybe I'm grasping at straws here in thinking that he has a shot at 3,000 hits, but I really think that he will need all the ammo he can muster when his name comes up for the HOF. If they can keep Bert Blyleven, Tommy John, and Jim Kaat out, I fear that they might try it with Frank because of the widespread hatred of the DH. I know that he's primarily a 1st baseman in a lot of people's minds, but he has spent significant time at DH, and all the DH abolitionists out there might hold that against Frank.

He is, simply put, the premier hitter in the history of this franchise. He belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I would really like to see him just go out there and put up numbers so mammoth that the whole "but he DHed" argument goes right out the window.

doublem23
07-12-2004, 02:39 AM
Maybe I'm grasping at straws here in thinking that he has a shot at 3,000 hits, but I really think that he will need all the ammo he can muster when his name comes up for the HOF. If they can keep Bert Blyleven, Tommy John, and Jim Kaat out, I fear that they might try it with Frank because of the widespread hatred of the DH. I know that he's primarily a 1st baseman in a lot of people's minds, but he has spent significant time at DH, and all the DH abolitionists out there might hold that against Frank.

He is, simply put, the premier hitter in the history of this franchise. He belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I would really like to see him just go out there and put up numbers so mammoth that the whole "but he DHed" argument goes right out the window.
I'm hoping the induction of Paul Molitor will pave the way for the Hall of Fame to be more DH-friendly. Molitor clearly would not have ever sniffed at the HOF unless he had been a DH in the later stages of his career.

I still hate how baseball punishes players for doing what's best for their team in a system they created. Hypocrites.

Aidan
07-12-2004, 02:57 AM
I still hate how baseball punishes players for doing what's best for their team in a system they created. Hypocrites. Wow, you worded that perfectly.

StillMissOzzie
07-12-2004, 03:03 AM
Wow, you worded that perfectly.
BTW, cool siggy picture, Aidan!

SMO
:gulp:

Nellie_Fox
07-12-2004, 04:26 AM
I still hate how baseball punishes players for doing what's best for their team in a system they created. Hypocrites.HOF is voted by the sportswriters. They are not "baseball" and did not create the designated hitter.

While I disagree with the sportswriters for having a bias against the DH, it is not hypocritical.

Cubbiesuck13
07-12-2004, 06:02 AM
him being a dh is what, imo, will let him get 3k hits. how many guys have lingered around as a dh to get a certain stat? his downfalls will be his size (many big guys break down quick for some reason, like his foot), his pride (i doubt he will allow himself to pull a mcgriff and play untill he is no longer a factor) and his lineup around him (but has there been anyone to protect him for more than a season besides mags? i remember people having a problem with robin behind him, george bell was useless, and albert belle was here for a year-i think)

poorme
07-12-2004, 09:25 AM
No chance at 3000. I'd say he's 50-50 to get 500 homers...not enough time and he's getting hurt too much. Who knows if he'll play again this year?

idseer
07-12-2004, 09:52 AM
HOF is voted by the sportswriters. They are not "baseball" and did not create the designated hitter.

While I disagree with the sportswriters for having a bias against the DH, it is not hypocritical.the writers are a part of 'baseball culture' and i would assume this is what doublem is talking about.

and in no way will frank be around for 3000 hits. he will be LUCKY to reach 500 homers, contrary to what many think is some kind of foregone conclusion.