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View Full Version : Tigers take the lead over the Twinkies!!!


Aidan
07-08-2004, 08:31 PM
Pudge just hit a homer to take the lead in the top of the 6th inning over the Twinkies 1-0!!! The Twins only have 2 hit against Mike Maroth.

Flight #24
07-08-2004, 08:37 PM
except in typical Twinns style, they gt it right back....bunt, PB, hit. Lucky on the PB, but they take advantage of breaks better than any team possibly ever.

ode to veeck
07-08-2004, 08:37 PM
frigging twinkies!

Aidan
07-08-2004, 08:39 PM
except in typical Twinns style, they gt it right back....bunt, PB, hit. Lucky on the PB, but they take advantage of breaks better than any team possibly ever.Yes, they do. How many 1 run games have they won against crappy teams? They've scored 393 runs and allowed 389 runs. How are they 46-37???

Lip Man 1
07-08-2004, 08:42 PM
Fans have been saying that for the last three years. It's no longer luck folks, it's a mindset. The Twins know how to play the game, and like the old Yankees of the early 60's, they take advantage of any little break the opposition gives them.

Lip

PaleHoseGeorge
07-08-2004, 08:48 PM
Fans have been saying that for the last three years. It's no longer luck folks, it's a mindset. The Twins know how to play the game, and like the old Yankees of the early 60's, they take advantage of any little break the opposition gives them.

Lip
Here's a far more plausible reason than "mindset." The Twins flat-out cheat. Pythagoras doesn't lie and the Twins don't squeak out all those 1-run victories without plenty of help, starting with the guy turning off and on those fans every half-inning inside the TwinkieDome.

If the game is close, they cheat. If not, they don't. That's why the runs allowed is so close to runs scored. They don't cheat when they're getting blown out. Well, duh...

You think it's mental toughness that the Twins are beating the Pythagorean expected wins year after year? Time to put down the crack pipe.

fquaye149
07-08-2004, 08:53 PM
Here's a far more plausible reason than "mindset." The Twins flat-out cheat. Pythagoras doesn't lie and the Twins don't squeak out all those 1-run victories without plenty of help, starting with the guy turning off and on those fans every half-inning inside the TwinkieDome.

If the game is close, they cheat. If not, they don't. That's why the runs allowed is so close to runs scored. They don't cheat when they're getting blown out. Well, duh...

You think it's mental toughness that the Twins are beating the Pythagorean expected wins year after year? Time to put down the crack pipe.
but the wind might only effect a ball by 10 or 20 feet. It's not like that would make a difference in a baseball game!

soxwon
07-08-2004, 09:05 PM
2-1 twinks in the 7th damn, atleast detroit scored.

Frankfan4life
07-08-2004, 09:07 PM
Luck, wind, whatever! The Twins are doing it again. :o:

Twinkies 2
Tiggers 1

8th Inning! Sigh!

Oops! Correction:

Twinkies 3
Tiggers 1

7th Inning! Rats!! :(:

Frankfan4life
07-08-2004, 09:14 PM
Twinkies 6
Tiggers 1

The SI sports scores was really slow. I switched to Yahoo sports which was much more accurate. Nevertheless, bad news for us.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-08-2004, 09:21 PM
Twinkies 6
Tiggers 1

Okay, this is the point where the mysterious gale winds suddenly stop blowing inside the TwinkieDome. The game is safe, so those inconsequential fans aren't needed anymore. The same thing would happen if the Tigers took a 5-run lead late in the game. It's not worth cheating if it isn't going to make a difference.

And that is why the Twinkie run differential never comes close to what Pythagoras would predict. That's because Pythagoras is based on random chance, and it is anything but chance that causes the winds to blow inside the TwinkieDome.

Please spare me what the pinheads from the University of Minnesota said about the wind. Next they'll hire "experts" from Best Buy, General Mills, and Target Corp. to tell us how pure as the driven snow everyone from Minnesota truly is.

Cowch44
07-08-2004, 09:22 PM
Damn that fan, and the fan guy:angry:

Cowch44
07-08-2004, 09:31 PM
If anyone goes to a Twinks Sox game in Chicago you should bring a sign that says. "There's no fan in Chicago."

Frankfan4life
07-08-2004, 09:43 PM
Okay, this is the point where the mysterious gale winds suddenly stop blowing inside the TwinkieDome. The game is safe, so those inconsequential fans aren't needed anymore. The same thing would happen if the Tigers took a 5-run lead late in the game. It's not worth cheating if it isn't going to make a difference.

And that is why the Twinkie run differential never comes close to what Pythagoras would predict. That's because Pythagoras is based on random chance, and it is anything but chance that causes the winds to blow inside the TwinkieDome.

Please spare me what the pinheads from the University of Minnesota said about the wind. Next they'll hire "experts" from Best Buy, General Mills, and Target Corp. to tell us how pure as the driven snow everyone from Minnesota truly is.If this is so, how did the Sox sweep the Twinks at the Twinkie dome this year?

By the way, Twinkies win 7-1. :(:

LongLiveFisk
07-08-2004, 09:52 PM
If anyone goes to a Twinks Sox game in Chicago you should bring a sign that says. "There's no fan in Chicago."
Bad idea, they would just be wisecracks and think of the word "fan" as in a person who loves baseball as opposed to a "fan" that circulates air. And then here we go with the friggin attendance thing (not that they can exactly brag either up there, from what I've seen!) :?:

flo-B-flo
07-08-2004, 09:56 PM
They are relentless. We must match that to slay them. I for one am looking forward to the challenge. Go-Go Sox!

PaleHoseGeorge
07-08-2004, 09:59 PM
If this is so, how did the Sox sweep the Twinks at the Twinkie dome this year?
Hey, just because you're cheating doesn't mean you're going to win. It only explains why the Twins' expected win totals (year after year) never matches what they actually do manage to win.

Pythagoras says win totals can be predicted by runs scored vs. runs allowed. If you cheat, Pythagoras doesn't apply anymore. That's because it's no longer random when the Twins are scoring extra runs (close games with the fans blowing) vs. when they aren't scoring extra runs (blow out games with fans turned off).

The Twins cheat. Even if they lose, it doesn't excuse cheating.

WhiteSox = Life
07-08-2004, 10:44 PM
If anyone goes to a Twinks Sox game in Chicago you should bring a sign that says. "There's no fan in Chicago."
How's about:

"Here on the South Side, our fans don't blow!"

:smile:

fhqwhgads
07-08-2004, 11:59 PM
Here's a far more plausible reason than "mindset." The Twins flat-out cheat. Pythagoras doesn't lie and the Twins don't squeak out all those 1-run victories without plenty of help, starting with the guy turning off and on those fans every half-inning inside the TwinkieDome.

If the game is close, they cheat. If not, they don't. That's why the runs allowed is so close to runs scored. They don't cheat when they're getting blown out. Well, duh...

You think it's mental toughness that the Twins are beating the Pythagorean expected wins year after year? Time to put down the crack pipe. Come on. So you're saying that the slim margins that the Twins have taken the division by over a vastly superior team are due to A/C fans only at home games that might affect the ball by a couple of feet if they were used that way (and a player hit a borderline warning-track ball at the right moment)??? PHG, with all due respect, that is some serious :whiner:.

Didn't the Sox just win a close game at the Dome? Don't you think that the best time to cheat would be against the team that you're fighting for the division lead against? Why didn't it work? Curses, foiled again. Not to mention all the 1- or 2-run wins at away games. They must be using psychic fans or something.

The truth is that neither team is vastly superior to the other. Play the games, and quit bellyaching about bad calls and conspiracy theories. It's fun to bitch about things, but don't take them so seriously that you actually blame the outcomes of entire seasons on them. Geez.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 08:36 AM
Come on. So you're saying that the slim margins that the Twins have taken the division by over a vastly superior team are due to A/C fans only at home games that might affect the ball by a couple of feet if they were used that way (and a player hit a borderline warning-track ball at the right moment)??? PHG, with all due respect, that is some serious :whiner:.

Didn't the Sox just win a close game at the Dome? Don't you think that the best time to cheat would be against the team that you're fighting for the division lead against? Why didn't it work? Curses, foiled again. Not to mention all the 1- or 2-run wins at away games. They must be using psychic fans or something.

The truth is that neither team is vastly superior to the other. Play the games, and quit bellyaching about bad calls and conspiracy theories. It's fun to bitch about things, but don't take them so seriously that you actually blame the outcomes of entire seasons on them. Geez.
Wow, fuqwads. Liars cheat and cheaters figure. I've read what I wrote and I have read your retort and I can't find ANYTHING that has the slightest bearing on the points I made. I'm guessing you're hoping Sox Fans are dumb enough to believe the sort of obfuscations you've written here that the rest of your fellow retards in Minnesota are all too willing to believe about how statistics show the Twins cheat.

Don't bitch at me, pal. Bitch at Pythagoras. He is the one calling you out on all this bull**** you wrote.

:whiner: :whiner: :whiner:

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 08:50 AM
Wow, fuqwads. Liars cheat and cheaters figure. I've read what I wrote and I have read your retort and I can't find ANYTHING that has the slightest bearing on the points I made. I'm guessing you're hoping Sox Fans are dumb enough to believe the sort of obfuscations you've written here that the rest of your fellow retards in Minnesota are all too willing to believe about how statistics show the Twins cheat.

Don't bitch at me, pal. Bitch at Pythagoras. He is the one calling you out on all this bull**** you wrote.

:whiner: :whiner: :whiner: Hey, if it makes you feel better about the standings to actually believe what you wrote, then I guess it's alright. I guess it's my fault for taking the Twins being called cheaters by you so seriously. Carry on...:gulp:

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 08:55 AM
Hey, if it makes you feel better about the standings to actually believe what you wrote, then I guess it's alright. I guess it's my fault for taking the Twins being called cheaters by you so seriously. Carry on...Yep I feel even better about you lying down and admitting its true. In fact you can't disprove a single bit of it.

Your team cheats, Fukwads. Be a big boy and admit it for all the Sox Fans laughing at you.

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 08:59 AM
Yep I feel even better about you lying down and admitting its true. In fact you can't disprove a single bit of it.

Your team cheats, Fukwads. Be a big boy and admit it for all the Sox Fans laughing at you. The name calling really gets that point across, doesn't it? :D:

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 09:09 AM
The name calling really gets that point across, doesn't it? :D:Calling you a big boy? Maybe little boy would be better? You're regressing awfully fast.

Nothing gets under the skin of Twins fans faster than calling them out on their cheating... what would Mary Kate and Ashley think...

:roflmao:

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 09:25 AM
Calling you a big boy?
Actually, I was referring to the ever so clever bastardization of my screen name...but you knew that.

This whole thing just reminds me of a little boy losing a game and running to his mommy, screaming, "He cheated! He cheated, mommy!" Thankfully, the White Sox themselves don't take this sad approach, they just come out and play the game. That's one of the reasons that I respect them.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 09:36 AM
Actually, I was referring to the ever so clever bastardization of my screen name...but you knew that.

This whole thing just reminds me of a little boy losing a game and running to his mommy, screaming, "He cheated! He cheated, mommy!" Thankfully, the White Sox themselves don't take this sad approach, they just come out and play the game. That's one of the reasons that I respect them.

We'll just line up your complaint right next Doug Miekslnelixz and A.J. Pierzkjicki. You want your name spelled right? Get some vowels, Hrbie.

What is sad is your stubborn insistence that cheating is okay. Is that what they taught you in the Minnesota public schools?

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 10:02 AM
We'll just line up your complaint right next Doug Miekslnelixz and A.J. Pierzkjicki. You want your name spelled right? Get some vowels, Hrbie.
While I appreciate your suggestion, I don't see any profanities (implied or otherwise) in those examples.

What is sad is your stubborn insistence that cheating is okay. Is that what they taught you in the Minnesota public schools?
I'm looking back in my posts, and I can't find an example of where I ever implied that cheating was okay. I only said that blaming the discrepancy between the Twins' actual record and expected record on the A/C fans at home games is ludicrous.

If cheating is occuring, the cheaters should be penalized. If you truly believe that cheating is going on, call Bud Selig. Call your congressman. Call the White House. Just don't call me late for supper...:D:

Let me play amateur psychologist here: The only reason I can see for this obsession about cheating (Twins A/C, Sammy's bat, etc.) is due to emotional scarring from the Black Sox scandal - most definitely the worst of all cheating offenses. Could it really be that something that happened nearly a century ago still has this kind of impact on current Sox fans?

WhiteSox = Life
07-09-2004, 10:45 AM
While I appreciate your suggestion, I don't see any profanities (implied or otherwise) in those examples.


I'm looking back in my posts, and I can't find an example of where I ever implied that cheating was okay. I only said that blaming the discrepancy between the Twins' actual record and expected record on the A/C fans at home games is ludicrous.

If cheating is occuring, the cheaters should be penalized. If you truly believe that cheating is going on, call Bud Selig. Call your congressman. Call the White House. Just don't call me late for supper...:D:

Let me play amateur psychologist here: The only reason I can see for this obsession about cheating (Twins A/C, Sammy's bat, etc.) is due to emotional scarring from the Black Sox scandal - most definitely the worst of all cheating offenses. Could it really be that something that happened nearly a century ago still has this kind of impact on current Sox fans?
With all due respect, fhqwhgads, do not even attempt to try to get into Sox fans' minds, especially trying to link our mentalities on an incident that happened nearly 85 years ago that nobody on these boards could possibly remember.

JohnBasedowYoda
07-09-2004, 10:48 AM
why are twins fans putzing around here anyway? go ride that dumb trolley you guys have

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 10:57 AM
With all due respect, fhqwhgads, do not even attempt to try to get into Sox fans' minds, especially trying to link our mentalities on an incident that happened nearly 85 years ago that nobody on these boards could possibly remember.
You're absolutely right, I apologize. My unsubstantiated theory is just as bogus as any other unsubstantiated theory. I probably should have put that in teal (or just not posted it at all). Here, have a :gulp: on me.

Jerko
07-09-2004, 10:58 AM
:threadsucks

because EVERY time somebody starts a thread when the Twins fall behind in a game, they wind up winning! THAT'S why they're ahead of us

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 11:06 AM
why are twins fans putzing around here anyway? Because I like discussing baseball with knowledgable baseball fans from other teams. It's good to exchange opinions and observations with other teams' fans (especially rival teams' fans), and it can often give a needed reality check when you are more confident or more depressed about your team than you should be. I've gotten a lot out these boards, and I hope that a few of you guys and gals have gotten something out of my posts (insert joke here).

go ride that dumb trolley you guys have Just did on Wednesday to catch Lohse's shutout of the 2003 Tigers... i mean Royals. $3 round trip, no parking, no traffic, dropped off right at the Dome. It is great.

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 11:08 AM
EVERY time somebody starts a thread when the Twins fall behind in a game, they wind up winning! THAT'S why they're ahead of us
As good a theory as any other in this thread. :redneck

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 11:35 AM
While I appreciate your suggestion, I don't see any profanities (implied or otherwise) in those examples.


I'm looking back in my posts, and I can't find an example of where I ever implied that cheating was okay. I only said that blaming the discrepancy between the Twins' actual record and expected record on the A/C fans at home games is ludicrous.

If cheating is occuring, the cheaters should be penalized. If you truly believe that cheating is going on, call Bud Selig. Call your congressman. Call the White House. Just don't call me late for supper...

Let me play amateur psychologist here: The only reason I can see for this obsession about cheating (Twins A/C, Sammy's bat, etc.) is due to emotional scarring from the Black Sox scandal - most definitely the worst of all cheating offenses. Could it really be that something that happened nearly a century ago still has this kind of impact on current Sox fans?
Here, fuqkwads. Let's give you a string quartet to accompany your whine.

:violin: :violin::violin::violin:

<solo> It's okay turn the fans off and on... it's only cheating if you're caught...

<Chorus> Nobody cares unless the Twins win... Trust us... not Pythagoras... Twins fans are persecuted at WSI...

Man, give it up already...

patbooyah
07-09-2004, 11:54 AM
twins at home: 26-19

twins away: 21-18

--------------------------------------------------------------
as much as i want to believe that those bastards are cheating i just can't believe it based off of the stats. UNLESS- the twins players dont know about the fans and the wins give them confidence boosts.

:redneck

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 12:30 PM
Here, fuqkwads.
Your argument looks weaker with every name-calling, song-singing post. I'm out for this thread. Looking forward to a more civil and reasonable discussion about baseball with you in the future, as you usually have better insight and class than you've shown in this thread.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 01:21 PM
Your argument looks weaker with every name-calling, song-singing post. I'm out for this thread. Looking forward to a more civil and reasonable discussion about baseball with you in the future, as you usually have better insight and class than you've shown in this thread.
That's funny. You haven't offered a single reason to convince anyone that Pythagorean expected wins is "ludricous" for proving why the Twins cheat year after year. That's what you said, not offering a single thought why the single most statistically-reliable calculation yet devised for predicting a teams win total does not apply to the Minnesota Twins -- year after year after year. I half-expect you to tell us it is "voodoo" or "mindset" causing this anomaly year after year after year. Sorry, fish ain't biting.

The rest of this is just crap to obfuscate the issue... sour grapes and silly psych evaluations. I'm still waiting for you to debunk Pythagoras. He's calling you out on *17* extra wins just the last 3 years alone. And if you can't debunk Pythagoras...

Fans on, fans off and nothing about it is random, just like the Twins' win total. The Twins cheat and you're wasting everyone's time being stubborn about it.

fhqwhgads
07-09-2004, 03:50 PM
That's funny. You haven't offered a single reason to convince anyone that Pythagorean expected wins is "ludricous" for proving why the Twins cheat year after year. That's what you said, not offering a single thought why the single most statistically-reliable calculation yet devised for predicting a teams win total does not apply to the Minnesota Twins -- year after year after year. I half-expect you to tell us it is "voodoo" or "mindset" causing this anomaly year after year after year. Sorry, fish ain't biting.

The rest of this is just crap to obfuscate the issue... sour grapes and silly psych evaluations. I'm still waiting for you to debunk Pythagoras. He's calling you out on *17* extra wins just the last 3 years alone. And if you can't debunk Pythagoras...

Fans on, fans off and nothing about it is random, just like the Twins' win total. The Twins cheat and you're wasting everyone's time being stubborn about it.
Thank you for becoming civil again. I'm happy to respond.

According to the current Pythagorean standings (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.html?PHPSESSID=afeeaebd81d9fa7b2be9d8c85 0bd7cbb), it seems that the Reds, Yankees and Devil Rays must have something in common with the Twins. They are all significant overachievers. Only half the divisions are led by the Pythagorean leaders. I find hard to agree with an accusation of cheating based on these figures, unless you are accusing these other overachievers of cheating, too.

Managers seem to have something to do with expected vs. actual W/L differential. Check out this site (http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001298.shtml).

Until you come to a game at the Dome yourself and keep track of when the fans are on/off, your credibility is lacking. You are going by complete hearsay, and coming off as a whiner. If you have some hard evidence, I'm all ears. I want the Twins to win, but not by cheating.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-09-2004, 05:32 PM
Thank you for becoming civil again. I'm happy to respond.

According to the current Pythagorean standings (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.html?PHPSESSID=afeeaebd81d9fa7b2be9d8c85 0bd7cbb), it seems that the Reds, Yankees and Devil Rays must have something in common with the Twins. They are all significant overachievers. Only half the divisions are led by the Pythagorean leaders. I find hard to agree with an accusation of cheating based on these figures, unless you are accusing these other overachievers of cheating, too.

Managers seem to have something to do with expected vs. actual W/L differential. Check out this site (http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001298.shtml).

Until you come to a game at the Dome yourself and keep track of when the fans are on/off, your credibility is lacking. You are going by complete hearsay, and coming off as a whiner. If you have some hard evidence, I'm all ears. I want the Twins to win, but not by cheating.
With all due respect to your current Pythagorean standings, and the notion that magic managers win magic games, here are some hard statistics that trump all of it. Is 14,580 games worth of statistics valid enough for you? It ought to be because it dwarfs any of the nonsense you're clinging to above.

Across the last three seasons 30 teams have played 162 games for a total of 14,580 games (give or take a rainout here or there).

Across those 90 campaigns (30 teams x 3 seasons=90), just THREE teams (10 percent) managed to beat the Pythagorean expected wins a mere three consecutive times.

Any team can beat Pythagoras once, and many can do it twice. But three times in a row only happens 10 percent of the time.

Of those 3 teams that beat Pythagoras three consecutive times, none of them managed as many as the 17 unexpected wins like the Minnesota Twins did. In fact, one of them (LA) barely managed half the Twins' unexpected total (9 compared to 17 for the Twins).

The only team that can even approach the anomaly in Minnesota is the New York Yankees, another team often accused of getting extraordinary help, though usually from the home plate umpire rather than some cheater-in-denial turning fans off and on inside a bubble dome.

The Yankees piled up 15 unexpected wins. They did that with help from the umpires in 486 games both home & away. Meanwhile the Twins trump that with 17 unexpected wins, presumably all of them at home (just 243 games). That's because the Twins won a whopping 29 more games at home than on the road during those 3 years. (For that same period the Yankees were only +7 at home vs. away, a period when they averaged nearly 100 wins per season.)

Would this be a good time to remind you I've only repeated my cheating assertion about the Twins in the context of it happening over and over and over again? Did you just now notice that I repeated "over" 3 consecutive times? I sure wouldn't be dumb enough to try (as you have) to base my assertions on a pathetic half-season of 84 games per team.

Sarcasm is about the best retort you've offered so far. I suggest you go heavy on teal in your next response.

:violin:

cheeses_h_rice
07-09-2004, 09:42 PM
Tiggers up 5-3 in the 9th...let's hope they hold it. I want first place back.

cheeses_h_rice
07-09-2004, 09:51 PM
:twinslose

:supernana::bandance::supernana::bandance::superna na::bandance:

Cowch44
07-09-2004, 09:51 PM
:twinslose
Too bad we have to hate the Tigers in a few days.

CHISOXFAN13
07-09-2004, 09:52 PM
:twinslose
Too bad we have to hate the Tigers in a few days.

Outside of Cleveland rallyinf for a win in the 9th, this was a perfect night.

Huge win for the Sox and we are once again even in the "L" column.

cheeses_h_rice
07-09-2004, 09:54 PM
And did anyone else happen to see a certain other Chicago team falling to 7 games back tonight?

:)

Flight #24
07-09-2004, 10:07 PM
And did anyone else happen to see a certain other Chicago team falling to 7 games back tonight?

:)
And, actuallly as or more important, if San Diego holds onto a 3-0 lead over Colorado, the Chubs will officially be out of the playoffs if the season ended today!

cheeses_h_rice
07-09-2004, 10:19 PM
And, actuallly as or more important, if San Diego holds onto a 3-0 lead over Colorado, the Chubs will officially be out of the playoffs if the season ended today!
For the first time in many moons, I can say....GO PADS!

fhqwhgads
07-10-2004, 07:28 PM
Sarcasm is about the best retort you've offered so far. I suggest you go heavy on teal in your next response.

You know, the funny thing is that I've been so busy addressing your trollish accusations that I have failed to mention what is the most logical reason for the differential. The fact that the Twins' wins are more likely to come in close games, and blowouts happen in Twins' losses much more frequently than their wins. Assuming for a moment that my reasoning is valid, Pythagorus would fail to accurately predict the number of wins. Here are the undisputed facts that back up my reasoning (note that I am not using hearsay excuses like you have been):






The Twins have an average (at best) offense, with no legitimate power hitters. (they've gotten out-HR'ed by 20-30 a year).
This means that they are unlikely to score many runs in any game. Enough to win a given game, sure (if the pitching holds up), but very rarely enough to blow anyone out. You can't dispute that the 12-0 and 9-0 wins against the horrible Royals are way outside the normal output for the Twins (and nearly completely due to how bad the Royals are right now). When the opposing team scores many runs, the Twins can rarely keep up, and usually put in junk pitchers to eat innings and give up even more runs.


The Twins have an All-Star closer in Joe Nathan (and had the All-Stars Guardado and Hawkins over the past two years).
This means that in late and close games, the Twins usually have an advantage due to the strong late bullpen.


The Twins have gotten many quality starts from their starting pitching over the past three years, which affords more opportunities for the sub-par offense to provide enough run support to win games.
A high number of quality starts from the Twins' staff often has kept them in the game long enough for the Twins to string a few base hits together in an inning to gain a lead, which is taken over by the afore-mentioned bullpen.


When the Twins' starting pitching is bad, it is bad.
Radke has a tendency to give up large crooked numbers in the first inning. Lohse tends to fall apart around the 5th or 6th inning when he's not on. Rick Reed gave up a zillion home runs. Hell, the whole starting staff has had off-and-on problems with the long ball. On these days, along with the help of horrible mop-up relief (Wells, Trombley, Cressend, etc.), the Twins lose big-time.

I appreciate your passion, but your logic needs work. You have proved neither causation nor correllation between your accusation and the stats. You don't even have proof for your accusation. As a public service announcment, here is a list of the classic logical fallacies (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/index.htm) for your perusal. You may be surprised to see how many you have committed during your rants in this thread. Pay particular attention to the Inductive (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/induct.htm), Statistical (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/stat.htm), Causal (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/causal.htm), Syllogistic (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/syllog.htm), and especially the Explanation (http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/explan/welcome.htm) sections.

PaleHoseGeorge
07-10-2004, 08:52 PM
You know, the funny thing is that I've been so busy addressing your trollish accusations that I have failed to mention what is the most logical reason for the differential. The fact that the Twins' wins are more likely to come in close games, and blowouts happen in Twins' losses much more frequently than their wins. Assuming for a moment that my reasoning is valid, Pythagorus would fail to accurately predict the number of wins. Here are the undisputed facts that back up my reasoning (note that I am not using hearsay excuses like you have been):You know, I expected nothing less of you, F. I applaud your sincere beliefs about the Minnesota Twins, their moxy, their skill, whatever it is that you attribute their ability to beat the odds over and over and over again.

Since you again avoided (for at least the fifth time) offering any alternate explanation to any of my repeated assertions, I'll recap them again. Don't worry... I don't expect you to answer them. I know better. We all do now.

You can accurately predict how many games a team wins simply by knowing how many more runs they score than they allow. Here's the Pythagorean formula. Note that there isn't one single thing in here about managerial moxy, clubhouse intestinal fortitude, or even flat-out luck.

(Runs Scored) x 1.83
--------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)x 1.83 + (Runs Allowed)x1.83

Any team can beat Pythagoras once, and many can do it twice, but beating it three times in a row only happens 10 percent of the time.

The Twins, Yankees, and Dodgers are the only teams to do it the past three seasons, and none of them won more unexpected games than the Twins.

Even more damning, the Twins were the only one of these teams to win a suspiciously larger portion of their games at home vs. the road. Your whole notion of managerial moxy, and clubhouse intestinal fortitude really flies out the window when the rest of us are left to figure out why these attributes only apply to the Twins and their manager when they're playing inside the Twinkie Dome. Naturally, you have no answer for this.

The whole premise behind Pythagorean wins is based on *randomness* of when those runs are scored and when they are allowed. For a team like the Twins there is very little random about when runs are scored or allowed -- not generally, but specifically at home. That's what we know, because the Twins are winning games without scoring runs or preventing runs like every other team following Pythagorean randomness -- again not generally, but specifically at home.

The Twins score (or prevent) runs when they need to, not generally but specifically at home. Their +17 unexpected wins the last 3 years, and +29 more wins at home vs. the road. Nobody -- NOBODY -- even approaches these undisputed facts.

You wish to chalk it up all of this to any of a dozen possibilities for three years straight. Here's the possibility that sets your hair on fire:

The Twins only win extra games at home because they get help at home. When the Twins are getting blown out at home (or those rare instances when they blow somebody else out), the Twins don't get help. It's the close games that ruin the Pythagorean expected wins, not generally but only at home. That's where the fishy stuff begins. When the Twins need one extra run, or need to stop the opponent from scoring an extra run -- Shazaam -- that's what happens, not generally but only at home.

That's why the Twins squeeze more wins from fewer runs scored vs. allowed than any team in baseball, not generally but specifically at home.

F, your manager, your closer, your offense, your defense, your clubhouse intestinal fortitude, and all the stars in the Minnesota sky don't line up for your team generally, only at home does this occur.

DEAL WITH IT. You've been offered multiple chances here and you've squandered them all.

BlackAndWhite
07-12-2004, 05:36 PM
Fqhgqwhsd gave up? Looks like PHGeorge won.:lurkers

ma-gaga
07-12-2004, 06:10 PM
You can accurately predict how many games a team wins simply by knowing how many more runs they score than they allow. Here's the Pythagorean formula.

PHG,
Seriously, when did you discover Pythagorean and the true way of the stathead??? I've never heard you mention this argument EVER.

I'm shocked at PHG arguing the stat head argument. Shocked. What's next, Lip being optimistic?!? Daver wearing a tie?!? Voodoo winning the Fantasy League?!?

ma-gaga being funny?

:)

PaleHoseGeorge
07-12-2004, 06:21 PM
PHG,
Seriously, when did you discover Pythagorean and the true way of the stathead??? I've never heard you mention this argument EVER.

I'm shocked at PHG arguing the stat head argument. Shocked. What's next, Lip being optimistic?!? Daver wearing a tie?!? Voodoo winning the Fantasy League?!?

ma-gaga being funny?

You're a good Twins fan, ma-gaga. Be fruitful and multiply.

:bandance: