PDA

View Full Version : BP On Ozzie's handling of the staff


Dadawg_77
07-01-2004, 09:42 PM
Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has been vocal about wanting to see his starting pitchers pitch out of jams, and he's applied that in his managing. Sox starters are second in the AL in pitches per game, fifth in Pitcher Abuse Points (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pap_pitcher_team2004.html), and tied for second in Stress Score.



The thing is, I don't think Guillen is coming close to abusing his starters. For despite those lofty rankings, Guillen has been adept at keeping his starting pitchers from the kind of high-pitch-count games that rend arms. Sox starters have gone past 121 pitches just three times all season, tying them for 14th in MLB in that category. It's those games, what Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner dub Category IV and V starts (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1477), that pose the greatest danger to pitchers. (For all the attention paid to "100 pitches," there's no one who actually advocates using that figure as a guideline at the major-league level. The entire discussion would be enhanced if people would let go of that notion.)

What Guillen has done is gotten his starters into the 110-121 pitch range more often than any manager in baseball. Sox starters have thrown that number of pitches 28 times in 74 starts; just three other teams have surpassed 19 "Category III" starts, in the vernacular. As the work of Jazayerli and Woolner showed, throwing this number of pitches is well within acceptable usage.

So the White Sox' high PAP scores are not the result of abuse, but the result of care. Guillen has extended his starters from the 90s into the 110s more than his peers, but he's stopped well short of anything that could be termed abuse. This has enabled him to get more work from his better pitchers at a low level of risk, while keeping the bottom of his pitching staff out of game-critical situations. Much of Guillen's positive press stems from his affability and his quotability, and if the Sox do win the Central, he'll get a disproportionate amount of credit because of that. But his handling of the pitching staff is the execution of a plan, and it's one that has had a positive impact on the Sox' season. He is striking as good a balance between the team's needs and his pitchers' capabilities as any manager in the game, and for that he deserves a ton of credit.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3029

SEALgep
07-01-2004, 10:46 PM
How about that. Way to be Ozzie. That's probably a good amount of Coop as well, but look at Ozzie getting on board with his coaches and implementing a good plan. Rookie manager who doesn't have the experience to run a pitching staff? I think not. The guy on the other side of town has plenty of experience and still doesn't know how to run a pitching staff.

doublem23
07-01-2004, 10:49 PM
How about that. Way to be Ozzie. That's probably a good amount of Coop as well, but look at Ozzie getting on board with his coaches and implementing a good plan. Rookie manager who doesn't have the experience to run a pitching staff? I think not. The guy on the other side of town has plenty of experience and still doesn't know how to run a pitching staff.
Well, first off, just because BP says so doesn't mean it is. Let's let at least a full year go by before we evaluate how Ozzie has really been handling the staff. I think what he's got going for him is the fact that none of his starters have a history of arm trouble. Marte, on the other hand, who has been shelved a few times in his career for arm troubles, does scare me with how much he is being used.

SEALgep
07-01-2004, 10:53 PM
Well, first off, just because BP says so doesn't mean it is. Let's let at least a full year go by before we evaluate how Ozzie has really been handling the staff. I think what he's got going for him is the fact that none of his starters have a history of arm trouble. Marte, on the other hand, who has been shelved a few times in his career for arm troubles, does scare me with how much he is being used.I thought Ozzie was doing well besides this report. Pitchers have to be used, you can't worry about everything single pitcher being used when we need them. There is risk in anything, but so far it appears Ozzie is assessing the risk well. This report isn't some White Sox fluff, it takes serious consideration and research to come up with their analysis. Is Ozzie perfect? No, but I definitely like what I see, and that includes how he has been handling the pitching staff as a whole.

jeremyb1
07-01-2004, 11:30 PM
I'm glad you posted that DaDawg. I thought it was great that Joe pointed that out. I was really worried about Ozzie when he had Garland throw 120 pitches in his first or second start of the season when he wasn't completely stretched out yet despite a huge lead but he's done real well since then. He's been getting a lot of innings from the starters without going too far.

SEALgep
07-01-2004, 11:46 PM
I'm glad you posted that DaDawg. I thought it was great that Joe pointed that out. I was really worried about Ozzie when he had Garland throw 120 pitches in his first or second start of the season when he wasn't completely stretched out yet despite a huge lead but he's done real well since then. He's been getting a lot of innings from the starters without going too far.Nothing like a fresh bullpen to take you down the stretch. :bandance:

daveeym
07-01-2004, 11:56 PM
Pitch count = BS, Ozzie = Great Job. 70 or 130 depends on the day such an overstated issue that means absolute crap.

Dadawg_77
07-02-2004, 08:17 AM
Nothing like a fresh bullpen to take you down the stretch. :bandance:
Other then Marte and Shingo, do you really want this pen to pitch in meaningfull innings?

firejauron
07-02-2004, 09:51 AM
The only complaint I have had recently regarding the handling of the staff is that Ozzie may be showing teams such as Minnesota too much of Shingo when he doesn't have to. He used him in the first two games, one of which we could have gotten away without having to use him. IMO, Shingo is the type of pitcher teams need to see a few times to get used to. Why give the Twins more looks at Shingo when we don't have to?

I think Ozzie's move of leaving Garland in yesterday to pitch out of a jam could really help his confidence in future games. Good move, OZ!

SEALgep
07-02-2004, 10:11 AM
Other then Marte and Shingo, do you really want this pen to pitch in meaningfull innings?You really don't have much choice as it stands now, but either way, I'm at least glad they'll be fresh down the stretch. Ozzie is doing his part, but after that it's up to them.