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View Full Version : How far must we get to justify this deal?


jeremyb1
06-29-2004, 02:01 AM
We've seen WSI is in favor of this trade by more than a 5:1 margin so to put in in context I'm curious how many are simply down on prospects in general or Reed/Olivo/Morse and how many are now convinced we're going to be world beaters. So...how far do we need to get for you to view this trade in a positive light.

soltrain21
06-29-2004, 02:03 AM
Sign Freddie to an extension...


It is hard to get a justification because things don't just depend on THIS trade alone. Freddie could do great, but that doesn't mean we will make the playoffs, it will help, but it doesn't guarantee anything.

fuzzy_patters
06-29-2004, 02:36 AM
We've seen WSI is in favor of this trade by more than a 5:1 margin so to put in in context I'm curious how many are simply down on prospects in general or Reed/Olivo/Morse and how many are now convinced we're going to be world beaters. So...how far do we need to get for you to view this trade in a positive light.
You are operating on the assumption that there is a level the Sox must reach to justify the trade, but this is not true. This team is within reach of the playoffs, and this trade makes this year's club stronger regardless of future ramifications. That much is clear. Therefore, failure to advance to a certain level indicates that the Sox failed to make an additional necessary move, and not that this trade was a failure.

jeremyb1
06-29-2004, 03:02 AM
You are operating on the assumption that there is a level the Sox must reach to justify the trade, but this is not true. This team is within reach of the playoffs, and this trade makes this year's club stronger regardless of future ramifications. That much is clear. Therefore, failure to advance to a certain level indicates that the Sox failed to make an additional necessary move, and not that this trade was a failure.

I more or less agree with you in a certain sense because I disagree with evaluating trades in hindsight so I think it's unfair to praise the trade now and then bash it if we don't succeed because hindsight is 20/20 and KW didn't have the benefit in making the deal. However, I'd like to get some sort of a feel for what type of success suporters of the deal feel this trade will secure.

mcfish
06-29-2004, 03:12 AM
In my opinion, this trade does more for us if we make it to the post season than it does in the regular season. I think we were good enough before to make it to the playoffs, but I would much rather see Buerhle, Loaiza, Garcia, and 1 of Garland, Scho, etc. than the alternative 4 man rotation in the playoffs. Playoff baseball is a whole different world - you can't get by on games because the other team's 5th starter is pitching, and you have to come at them with solid pitching of your own. I love our offense, but if anyone thinks they will be 100% as productive in the playoffs (assuming we make it there), they're fooling themselves. When it's down to just 8 teams with 4 man rotations, you can pretty much assume that every day is going to bring another stud pitcher, and we need to counter with the same.

Having 3 solid starters at the top, and then someone decent at #4 will be a huge plus when October comes, instead of 2 solid starters and 2 decent someones.

samram
06-29-2004, 08:01 AM
You are operating on the assumption that there is a level the Sox must reach to justify the trade, but this is not true. This team is within reach of the playoffs, and this trade makes this year's club stronger regardless of future ramifications. That much is clear. Therefore, failure to advance to a certain level indicates that the Sox failed to make an additional necessary move, and not that this trade was a failure.
Exactly. Any trade that gives a contending team a better chance to win the World Series is justified when it is made.

jabrch
06-29-2004, 08:19 AM
You are operating on the assumption that there is a level the Sox must reach to justify the trade, but this is not true. This team is within reach of the playoffs, and this trade makes this year's club stronger regardless of future ramifications. That much is clear. Therefore, failure to advance to a certain level indicates that the Sox failed to make an additional necessary move, and not that this trade was a failure.
Billiant! The GM did his job. He got the best available SP for this team. Now it is the players job. The outcome of the season is not what this trade should be evaluated on. Since there is likely no correlation. The trade should be evaluated based on the simple questions of "Did it make us significantly better today? and do we have a better chance of winning now than before?" Olivo's performance can be easily replaced for the remainder of the season with any of a number of veteran catchers. Garcia is a major upgrade over the previous 5th starters. This trade was good no matter where the season ends up. The poll should have an option for "It was a success regardless of how the season ends up"

poorme
06-29-2004, 10:15 AM
I can't believe anyone would say just winning the AL Central.

Kadafi311
06-29-2004, 10:28 AM
I can't believe anyone would say just winning the AL Central.I'm saying it. If they win the Central, the trade was justified and a success.

I want to taste the post-season! Anything that happens from there is a bonus.

lowesox
06-29-2004, 10:29 AM
Wow - no wonder the Sox haven't won the WS in so long - they don't need to. Their fans have such small hopes.

Anybody who voted for anything less than winning the World Series is crazy. THIS YEAR IS OUR ONLY CHANCE. After it, everybody's going to leave. And Kenny's sold away our entire future trying to make himself look good now.

minastirith67
06-29-2004, 10:49 AM
:threadsucks

Kadafi311
06-29-2004, 11:03 AM
THIS YEAR IS OUR ONLY CHANCE. After it, everybody's going to leave.
Talk about small hopes...

Flight #24
06-29-2004, 11:06 AM
Anybody who voted for anything less than winning the World Series is crazy. THIS YEAR IS OUR ONLY CHANCE. After it, everybody's going to leave. And Kenny's sold away our entire future trying to make himself look good now.
Riiiiight, because no team with an offensive core of Frank, Lee, Konerko, Willie, Buehrle, Takatsu, Marte and prospects like Borchard, Sweeney, Anderson, Honel, Rauch, Diaz has a hope of success.

We'll resign 2 or more of Maggs, Elo, FG. That's still a contender in this division.

mendozaln
06-29-2004, 11:38 AM
Exactly. Any trade that gives a contending team a better chance to win the World Series is justified when it is made.
I can't agree with this. If this were the only criterion, we should start trading all our prospects just to maximize our chances this year. You should always give some weight to future success in making these decisions.

JRIG
06-29-2004, 12:15 PM
:threadsucks
This may be the worst use of this tag ever.

MRKARNO
06-29-2004, 12:18 PM
If we dont resign Garcia, then I think we need to get to the ALCS at very least to justify Garcia, but if we can resign Garcia for 3-5 years, then I dont think we need to even make the playoffs the justify this deal, but we should make the playoffs with Garcia.

lowesox
06-29-2004, 12:49 PM
We'll resign 2 or more of Maggs, Elo, FG. That's still a contender in this division.
Yeah. I'm positive we will - after how we managed to keep all those free agents from last year.

jeremyb1
06-29-2004, 11:19 PM
Riiiiight, because no team with an offensive core of Frank, Lee, Konerko, Willie, Buehrle, Takatsu, Marte and prospects like Borchard, Sweeney, Anderson, Honel, Rauch, Diaz has a hope of success.

We'll resign 2 or more of Maggs, Elo, FG. That's still a contender in this division.

Well Frank and Shingo are 36 and 35 respectively. That's not exactly a young core that will do us any good in three or four years and while Frank is a HOFer and having a tremendous season, he might start to decline anytime now due to his age. It's not wise to build for the future with 35 year old players.

Buehrle and Garland are solid building blocks but it takes quite a few good players to even finish .500. Paully and Carlos are good players but are alreadyi n their prime and have already gotten very expensive. The nice thing about young players is you don't have to pay them anything for three years. We're going to be paying Paully and Carlos ober 16 million next season. When you have a finite budget and especially when you have an average to below average payroll as you do, players are only valuable if they're signed to good deals. A guy that posts an .800 OPS making the minimum is more valuable than a guy that posts a .950 OPS making 17 million. At this point Carlos and Paully aren't that valuable in my mind because they're making as much or more than they're worth.

With the prospects, Borchard, Rauch, and Diaz are all good (just ask Lip how much I like Rauch) but I'm not convinced any of them will be incredible, just good. With Anderson, Sweeney, and crew I don't understand how Reed's potential could be so questionable because he's a prospect and prospects don't always pan out yet we're going to rely on guys that have yet to play a single game above A ball.

Whitesox029
06-29-2004, 11:29 PM
You left out the option "Wednesday." If Garcia dominates the Twins, I will be officially completely in favor of this trade.