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View Full Version : 2003 prediction: Sox would be significantly downgraded for '04


GoSox2K3
06-28-2004, 08:41 AM
The prevailing wisdom last year was that 2003 was the Sox year to do something and that the team would be downgraded for 2004 because of budget restrictions. This is what most of us (including myself) thought. Now after the trade yesterday, it is interesting to compare today's team to the '03 team in July.

Last year we had Gordon, R. Alomar, Everett, and Colon. This year we have Shingo, Uribe, Harris, and Garcia.

Of course we now lose Olivo, who we had last year (but last year's Olivo only hit .237).

And who could overlook this difference: Last year we had Manual and this year we have Guillen.

What do you guys think?

Another thing: I remember from the media last year the idea that the '03 Sox attendance was artificially inflated somewhat because of people who bought season tickets just to get All-Star Game tickets. Everyone was expecting Sox attendance to drop this year and I thought I read somewhere that it's up 25% (is that right?).

Blob
06-28-2004, 09:04 AM
Right now, they are up 18% over last year. But, that does includew two rain outs. So they would probably be around 25% right now if they did not have those two rain outs.


Heres the site:

http://slam.canoe.ca/StatsBBA/BC-BBA-STAT-CHWHITESOXATTCOMP-R.html

And I'm not sure if the site is totally up to date.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 09:14 AM
Right now, they are up 18% over last year. But, that does includew two rain outs. So they would probably be around 25% right now if they did not have those two rain outs.


Heres the site:

http://slam.canoe.ca/StatsBBA/BC-BBA-STAT-CHWHITESOXATTCOMP-R.html

And I'm not sure if the site is totally up to date.
This brings up an aspect of this trade that's kind of under the radar. This deal generates additional buzz and excitement NOW, adding to what's already there from the Ozzie signing and the team's play. That should translate to increased revenues. If it also leads to a deep playoff run (something that's muich more likely today than yesterday/pre-deal), that will only further grow attendance, Sox interest, and revenues.

Given the historical correlation between revenues and following year's payroll - that should translate into more money to resign or sign players. Add in the subtraction of Koch's salary & a likely reduction in Valentin's (IMO - they'll resign him but for like $2-3m/yr) - and we should be able to resign Freddy, Maggs, & Loaiza (assuming that Maggs will take what we feel is his market value).

However, if we'd kept Olivo and let Garcia slide, and the team disappointed - say good bye to the Sox as a major entity in this town, especially with the Cubs likely contenders this year and for the next couple. The word would be "Another Sox team that disappointed because management wouldn't make the necessary deals".

That's another facet that makes this a good deal.

nasox
06-28-2004, 10:46 AM
This brings up an aspect of this trade that's kind of under the radar. This deal generates additional buzz and excitement NOW, adding to what's already there from the Ozzie signing and the team's play. That should translate to increased revenues. If it also leads to a deep playoff run (something that's muich more likely today than yesterday/pre-deal), that will only further grow attendance, Sox interest, and revenues.

Given the historical correlation between revenues and following year's payroll - that should translate into more money to resign or sign players. Add in the subtraction of Koch's salary & a likely reduction in Valentin's (IMO - they'll resign him but for like $2-3m/yr) - and we should be able to resign Freddy, Maggs, & Loaiza (assuming that Maggs will take what we feel is his market value).

However, if we'd kept Olivo and let Garcia slide, and the team disappointed - say good bye to the Sox as a major entity in this town, especially with the Cubs likely contenders this year and for the next couple. The word would be "Another Sox team that disappointed because management wouldn't make the necessary deals".

That's another facet that makes this a good deal.
Hell, I'm buyin more tickets because of the trade (I wanna see Freddy pitch a few times). Case in Point.

Lip Man 1
06-28-2004, 12:53 PM
For what it's worth the media member that I spoke with this morning said he thinks if Williams went to Reinsdorf and said we can get somemore upgrades in the 5 to 10 million dollar salary range. JR would say yes.

He said anything above that is not going to happen.

He said this is based on last season because of the attendance increase and the fact that the Sox made some deals and that some of the cost was paid by other clubs, he thinks the Sox basically broke even... they may have made or lost 100,000.

They didn't go in the red last year which meets JR's standards, so they may have something on the table still to spend if it will help the team get better.

Lip

gosox41
06-28-2004, 01:36 PM
For what it's worth the media member that I spoke with this morning said he thinks if Williams went to Reinsdorf and said we can get somemore upgrades in the 5 to 10 million dollar salary range. JR would say yes.

He said anything above that is not going to happen.

He said this is based on last season because of the attendance increase and the fact that the Sox made some deals and that some of the cost was paid by other clubs, he thinks the Sox basically broke even... they may have made or lost 100,000.

They didn't go in the red last year which meets JR's standards, so they may have something on the table still to spend if it will help the team get better.

Lip
I've been saying the same thing since I've been here about JR and making money. Along with that I've refuted a ton of myths. Glad to see more people reporting this even if it goes against the conspiracy theory that everyone dreams about.

As long as the Sox draw, JR will spend what he has.


Bob