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View Full Version : The "Miguel Olivo is overvalued" Thread


MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 12:38 AM
I like Miguel, but I feel that he has been overvalued by many here. Here's why:

-He can certainly hit lefthanded pitching, but he has a huge problem against righties. He is still overmatched against the righties. 5 of his 7 homers this year came off of lefties. The disparity is just so big. This year against lefties, his OPS is 1.437. Against righties it's .544. That's ridiculous and it follows the pattern he had set for himself his entire career. Miguel has great power, but if you can only use it against lefties, then you're probably not going to have a lot of overall success.

-He was not our everyday catcher anyways. Did Buehrle pitch to him? No. Did Schoeneweis? No. Did Diaz? No. The pitchers just felt a lot more comfortable with Alomar behind the plate. I dont know that Diaz would have had that game if it werent for Alomar. We were only using him in 50-65% of games.

-Playoff teams get it done with veteran catchers and therefore we need ALomar to be the primary catcher anyways. I know he's old, but I know there's a stat out there in which only a very small percentage of teams that went to the playoffs had a primary catcher under 27 years old. Posada wasnt the primary catcher in NY until he was 26 and he didnt start almost full time until he was 28.

2003 Playoff Teams and catcher's ages:

Atlanta Javy Lopez 32
San Francisco Benito Santiago 38
Florida Ivan Rodriguez 31
Cubs Damain Miller 33
Yankees Jorge Posada 31
Red Sox Jason Varitek 31
Athletics Ramon Hernandez 27
Twins AJ Pierzynski 26

The A's and the Red Sox were the only ones with catchers under 30 and the two teams combined for only 3 postseason wins.
Anaheim in 2002? Bengie Molina, 27. Arizona in 2001? Damian Miller, 31. Cleveland's AL winning teams in 95 and 97? Tony Pena, 38 and Alomar, 31. Atlanta winning it with a 24 year old Javy Lopez was an exception rather than the rule. It's pretty clear that Alomar is probably the best bet to handle our pitching staff for 2004, not 25 year old Miguel Olivo. If we can get Kendall this year or Varitek next year? All the better.

-Miguel does have good speed, but he is not a good basestealer. He only managed 6 of 10 and only has 5 of 9 this year after getting thrown out twice today. You can have all the speed you want, but if you cant use it to your advantage, then what's the use?

Now I think Miguel is a pretty good catcher and he had been great for us while we had him, that it's perfectly fine for him to be traded. It was unexpected, but I dont see ourselves as being much weaker as a whole because of it.

doublem23
06-28-2004, 12:41 AM
Why do we always need to have a million crazy threads whenever we make a move? Miguel's a good player, Freddy's a good pitcher. Nothing more needs to be said.

WSox8404
06-28-2004, 12:42 AM
I like Miguel, but I feel that he has been overvalued by many here. Here's why:

-He can certainly hit lefthanded pitching, but he has a huge problem against righties. He is still overmatched against the righties. 5 of his 7 homers this year came off of lefties. The disparity is just so big. This year against lefties, his OPS is 1.437. Against righties it's .544. That's ridiculous and it follows the pattern he had set for himself his entire career. Miguel has great power, but if you can only use it against lefties, then you're probably not going to have a lot of overall success.

-He was not our everyday catcher anyways. Did Buehrle pitch to him? No. Did Schoeneweis? No. Did Diaz? No. The pitchers just felt a lot more comfortable with Alomar behind the plate. I dont know that Diaz would have had that game if it werent for Alomar. We were only using him in 50-65% of games.

-Playoff teams get it done with veteran catchers and therefore we need ALomar to be the primary catcher anyways. I know he's old, but I know there's a stat out there in which only a very small percentage of teams that went to the playoffs had a primary catcher under 27 years old. Posada wasnt the primary catcher in NY until he was 26 and he didnt start almost full time until he was 28.

2003 Playoff Teams and catcher's ages:

Atlanta Javy Lopez 32
San Francisco Benito Santiago 38
Florida Ivan Rodriguez 31
Cubs Damain Miller 33
Yankees Jorge Posada 31
Red Sox Jason Varitek 31
Athletics Ramon Hernandez 27
Twins AJ Pierzynski 26

The A's and the Red Sox were the only ones with catchers under 30 and the two teams combined for only 3 postseason wins.
Anaheim in 2002? Bengie Molina, 27. Arizona in 2001? Damian Miller, 31. Cleveland's AL winning teams in 95 and 97? Tony Pena, 38 and Alomar, 31. Atlanta winning it with a 24 year old Javy Lopez was an exception rather than the rule. It's pretty clear that Alomar is probably the best bet to handle our pitching staff for 2004, not 25 year old Miguel Olivo. If we can get Kendall this year or Varitek next year? All the better.

-Miguel does have good speed, but he is not a good basestealer. He only managed 6 of 10 and only has 5 of 9 this year after getting thrown out twice today. You can have all the speed you want, but if you cant use it to your advantage, then what's the use?

Now I think Miguel is a pretty good catcher and he had been great for us while we had him, that it's perfectly fine for him to be traded. It was unexpected, but I dont see ourselves as being much weaker as a whole because of it.
You summed it up perfectly. Miguel was a great guy, and I feel sad to see him go, but come on. We are talking about one of the best pitchers in the league. Are people nuts?

South Side
06-28-2004, 12:52 AM
You summed it up perfectly. Miguel was a great guy, and I feel sad to see him go, but come on. We are talking about one of the best pitchers in the league. Are people nuts?
I don't know if I am the only one but I just felt comfortable knowing Olivo was behind the plate. I felt comfortable that if a guy going was going to try to steal we had a decent, decent chance to throw him and out and the couple of plays at the plate (ex. Carlos Lee throwing to home twice with 2 outs I believe in the same game or maybe the next game) where I knew Olivo wasn't going to drop it... No offense to Sandy but just last week... he didn't get the job done at the plate with a quality throw by C. Lee. I liked Olivo's performance and I think it will only get better it's just a shame it won't be for us.

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:09 AM
I like Miguel, but I feel that he has been overvalued by many here. Here's why:

-He can certainly hit lefthanded pitching, but he has a huge problem against righties. He is still overmatched against the righties. 5 of his 7 homers this year came off of lefties. The disparity is just so big. This year against lefties, his OPS is 1.437. Against righties it's .544. That's ridiculous and it follows the pattern he had set for himself his entire career. Miguel has great power, but if you can only use it against lefties, then you're probably not going to have a lot of overall success.

-He was not our everyday catcher anyways. Did Buehrle pitch to him? No. Did Schoeneweis? No. Did Diaz? No. The pitchers just felt a lot more comfortable with Alomar behind the plate. I dont know that Diaz would have had that game if it werent for Alomar. We were only using him in 50-65% of games.

-Playoff teams get it done with veteran catchers and therefore we need ALomar to be the primary catcher anyways. I know he's old, but I know there's a stat out there in which only a very small percentage of teams that went to the playoffs had a primary catcher under 27 years old. Posada wasnt the primary catcher in NY until he was 26 and he didnt start almost full time until he was 28.

2003 Playoff Teams and catcher's ages:

Atlanta Javy Lopez 32
San Francisco Benito Santiago 38
Florida Ivan Rodriguez 31
Cubs Damain Miller 33
Yankees Jorge Posada 31
Red Sox Jason Varitek 31
Athletics Ramon Hernandez 27
Twins AJ Pierzynski 26

The A's and the Red Sox were the only ones with catchers under 30 and the two teams combined for only 3 postseason wins.
Anaheim in 2002? Bengie Molina, 27. Arizona in 2001? Damian Miller, 31. Cleveland's AL winning teams in 95 and 97? Tony Pena, 38 and Alomar, 31. Atlanta winning it with a 24 year old Javy Lopez was an exception rather than the rule. It's pretty clear that Alomar is probably the best bet to handle our pitching staff for 2004, not 25 year old Miguel Olivo. If we can get Kendall this year or Varitek next year? All the better.

-Miguel does have good speed, but he is not a good basestealer. He only managed 6 of 10 and only has 5 of 9 this year after getting thrown out twice today. You can have all the speed you want, but if you cant use it to your advantage, then what's the use?

Now I think Miguel is a pretty good catcher and he had been great for us while we had him, that it's perfectly fine for him to be traded. It was unexpected, but I dont see ourselves as being much weaker as a whole because of it.Funny...a month ago you were calling him a "franchise catcher."

I've seen a lot of this today. All of the sudden, to make this trade look better, Miguel Olivo has moved from "franchise catcher" to "a guy who only catches two out of every five games!"

Dice
06-28-2004, 01:20 AM
I love Olivo BUT he's no franchise catcher. He's a solid catcher and will be on an all-star team in the future but he's no Ivan Rodriguez. Sorry, just my opinion.

MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 01:28 AM
Funny...a month ago you were calling him a "franchise catcher."

I've seen a lot of this today. All of the sudden, to make this trade look better, Miguel Olivo has moved from "franchise catcher" to "a guy who only catches two out of every five games!"
Opinions aren't allowed to change? What I meant at that time was that he could be pretty good for us for 4-5 years, not that we'd build our team around him or anything like that. Buehrle is signed through 2006 and he wont pitch to Olivo. And there are serious questions as to whether or not Olivo can call a game on his own.

Anyways, I always like to think optimistically, because if you want to sit around and mope all the time, then you are defeating the purpose of watching sports. Both of my opinions are valid and I will stand by both of them. Olivo does have a lot of the tools, but he is overagresive at the plate, overmatched against righties, not a good basestealer and not a proven gamecaller. It remains to be seen whether or not he can correct these errors and I would rather have a NO. 1 PITCHER then a developing catcher.

SOXintheBURGH
06-28-2004, 01:36 AM
[QUOTE=MRKARNO]

If we can get Kendall this year or Varitek next year? All the better.

QUOTE]


We are not getting Kendall, trust me. He makes up roughly 97% of Pittsburgh's payroll.

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:39 AM
Opinions aren't allowed to change? What I meant at that time was that he could be pretty good for us for 4-5 years, not that we'd build our team around him or anything like that. Buehrle is signed through 2006 and he wont pitch to Olivo. And there are serious questions as to whether or not Olivo can call a game on his own.
Of course opinions can change, and I apologize for calling you out specifically. All I know is, I remember a thread a month ago on the Bradford/Olivo deal where many, many, many people were calling Olivo a "future All-Star" with "five tool talent" and yes, a "franchise catcher." Today you can't spit without hitting a post making disparaging comments about Olivo -- bad game caller, no patience, can't hit righties, still developing, not an everyday catcher. Guess what -- all those things were evident a month ago and NO ONE SEEMED TO CARE. Now, people can't criticize quick enough. It's frustrating that people need to revise history to make this trade look good.



I would rather have a NO. 1 PITCHER then a developing catcher.

So would I. Where do you think we can find one?

bartmanisgod
06-28-2004, 01:42 AM
We are not getting Kendall, trust me. He makes up roughly 97% of Pittsburgh's payroll.[/QUOTE]

Which is about equal to all the change I have in my pocket!:D:


Move over Flubbies! Kw has made sure there is going to be two teams in this town!
:supernana: :supernana: :supernana:

MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 01:44 AM
So would I. Where do you think we can find one?
You want to sit here and tell me Garcia isn't a number one? Do you even know how many pitchers in the AL have a sub 4 ERA? Only 17. Garcia has a 3.20 Which amounts to 6th in the AL. Garcia is 5th in innings pitched in the AL as well. He's also 5th in strikeouts. If your definition of ace in the AL is limited to Halladay, Pedro, Schilling, Mulder and Hudson, then fine, Garcia is not that. But otherwise, he is indeed a no. 1 starter.

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 01:50 AM
Of course opinions can change, and I apologize for calling you out specifically. All I know is, I remember a thread a month ago on the Bradford/Olivo deal where many, many, many people were calling Olivo a "future All-Star" with "five tool talent" and yes, a "franchise catcher." Today you can't spit without hitting a post making disparaging comments about Olivo -- bad game caller, no patience, can't hit righties, still developing, not an everyday catcher. Guess what -- all those things were evident a month ago and NO ONE SEEMED TO CARE. Now, people can't criticize quick enough. It's frustrating that people need to revise history to make this trade look good.



So would I. Where do you think we can find one?Yeah, and a month ago the FOBB's were saying Olivo was nothing, not even worth the great Chad Bradford. Now he's suddenly the second coming of Josh Gibson to the FOBB's because they can rip Kenny over it. When nailed on that one, Jeremy Reed becomes a lead pipe lock Hall of Famer or Freddy Garcia is a no talent bum. If the FOBB's could keep their obsession to just loving Billy Beane and not twist into into having to hate every single thing Kenny does they might appear rational. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:50 AM
You want to sit here and tell me Garcia isn't a number one? Do you even know how many pitchers in the AL have a sub 4 ERA? Only 17. Garcia has a 3.20 Which amounts to 6th in the AL. Garcia is 5th in innings pitched in the AL as well. He's also 5th in strikeouts. If your definition of ace in the AL is limited to Halladay, Pedro, Schilling, Mulder and Hudson, then fine, Garcia is not that. But otherwise, he is indeed a no. 1 starter.
Garcia is a very good pitcher and will help the team. He's a solid #2 pitcher, but he's no #1. He's just not. If you want to ignore his performance is the past two years and focus on 100 IP this year, he may be close. But 4.40 ERAs the past 2 years in a pitcher's park is not all that impressive to me.

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:52 AM
Yeah, and a month ago the FOBB's were saying Olivo was nothing, not even worth the great Chad Bradford. Now he's suddenly the second coming of Josh Gibson to the FOBB's because they can rip Kenny over it. When nailed on that one, Jeremy Reed becomes a lead pipe lock Hall of Famer or Freddy Garcia is a no talent bum. If the FOBB's could keep their obsession to just loving Billy Beane and not twist into into having to hate every single thing Kenny does they might appear rational. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
I'm in the middle on Olivo. He's a very solid backstop with decent hitting numbers. I don't think he's any better today than he was yesterday. Bradford/Olivo was a win/win for both teams.

MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 01:54 AM
Bradford/Olivo was a win/win for both teams.
Just as Garcia for Olivo and Reed will be.

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 01:55 AM
I'm in the middle on Olivo. He's a very solid backstop with decent hitting numbers. I don't think he's any better today than he was yesterday. Bradford/Olivo was a win/win for both teams.Well you've always been pretty reasonable even though I suspect you aren't very fond of Kenny. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:56 AM
Just as Garcia for Olivo and Reed will be.
Only if we're able to re-sign Garcia. And even then it's not a slam dunk.

Ah...but uncertainty is what makes this game fun. :D:

JRIG
06-28-2004, 01:57 AM
Well you've always been pretty reasonable even though I suspect you aren't very fond of Kenny. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/biggrin.gif
What, have my past two signatures given away my true feelings?! :o:

:)

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 02:01 AM
What, have my past two signatures given away my true feelings?! :o: Yeah, but you're not a nutcase like most of the FOBB's. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

gobears1987
06-28-2004, 02:02 AM
I think SEattle got the royal screw job here and I love it. I like Miguel, but I value pitching better. Good move KW, this may be the beginning of repenting for the Koch deal.

akingamongstmen
06-28-2004, 10:01 AM
Why do we always need to have a million crazy threads whenever we make a move? Miguel's a good player, Freddy's a good pitcher. Nothing more needs to be said.
Amen.

jabrch
06-28-2004, 10:06 AM
Yeah, and a month ago the FOBB's were saying Olivo was nothing, not even worth the great Chad Bradford. Now he's suddenly the second coming of Josh Gibson to the FOBB's because they can rip Kenny over it. When nailed on that one, Jeremy Reed becomes a lead pipe lock Hall of Famer or Freddy Garcia is a no talent bum. If the FOBB's could keep their obsession to just loving Billy Beane and not twist into into having to hate every single thing Kenny does they might appear rational. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

Very well said. Olivo is a nice talent. But a .270 hitting C without much plate discipline isn't my idea of a reason to not acquire a #2 SP. And a AAA OF hitting .275 isn't either.

Maybe some of the youngsters around here don't mind waiting another 3-5 years to have Reed develop into POTENTIALLY an MLB star. But the window is closing on this team. Frank, Carlos, Maggs, Buerle, Loaiza etc. are here now. I am glad KW recognizes this and is doing what he can to put together the right pieces to try and win.

Dadawg_77
06-28-2004, 10:16 AM
Yeah, and a month ago the FOBB's were saying Olivo was nothing, not even worth the great Chad Bradford. Now he's suddenly the second coming of Josh Gibson to the FOBB's because they can rip Kenny over it. When nailed on that one, Jeremy Reed becomes a lead pipe lock Hall of Famer or Freddy Garcia is a no talent bum. If the FOBB's could keep their obsession to just loving Billy Beane and not twist into into having to hate every single thing Kenny does they might appear rational. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif
What is with your obsession with FOBB? This can't be good for your health. If you have been paying attention, instead of following your irrational obsession with us, you would have realized most of the FOBB, are criticizing this trade for Reed inclusion and Garcia not being that good. Most of the people jumping on bashing this trade because of Olivo really could care less about stats and were on the opposite side of FOBB during discussion of the Bradford/Olivo trade. If you want to pigeonhole this well go a head but it still doesn't change the fact you are dead wrong.

kevingrt
06-28-2004, 10:36 AM
I'd have to agree he is kind of overvalued for one reason, guys just don't run as much as they should. Watch a game and look how many stolen bases are even attempted very little. Pitchers are very aware of these guys, so Olivo's arm (best in baseball) is not needed as much as some people think. That is just my opinion.

ndgt10
06-28-2004, 10:42 AM
I'm going to miss Olivo, but people need to step back from the crack pipe and look at his career stats:

G AB BA OBP SLG OPS RBI HR
166 477 .245 .295 .403 .698 58 14

Granted, he is a darn good defensive catcher, but his offense stats are nothing more than average. Let's compare his stats to Ben Davis':

G AB BA OBP SLG OPS RBI HR
432 1352 .237 .310 .362 .671 188 32

I know this is only Olivo's second season, but so far his stats are strikingly similar to Ben Davis. Also, Ben Davis is 27 and Olivo is 25.

If you can look at Olivo's stats and honestly tell me that using him in a trade to get a #1 or #2 starter is a BAD trade, I want whatever you're smokin'.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 11:14 AM
Garcia is a very good pitcher and will help the team. He's a solid #2 pitcher, but he's no #1. He's just not. If you want to ignore his performance is the past two years and focus on 100 IP this year, he may be close. But 4.40 ERAs the past 2 years in a pitcher's park is not all that impressive to me.
I saw some report of an ear problem that was surgically corrected in the offseason. That could partially explaing why his numbers dipped the past 2 years, and why they're resurging this year. I can imagine that it woudl be VERY difficult to pitch through a condition that 1)causes constant pain, especialyl when doing anything athletic, and 2)affects your balance.

Dadawg_77
06-28-2004, 11:19 AM
I saw some report of an ear problem that was surgically corrected in the offseason. That could partially explaing why his numbers dipped the past 2 years, and why they're resurging this year. I can imagine that it woudl be VERY difficult to pitch through a condition that 1)causes constant pain, especialyl when doing anything athletic, and 2)affects your balance.
There are also stories that he was a partier and since he got engage to the niece of Ozzie's wife this off season has become less of a partier. Also his drinking buddy Carlos Gullien move to the Tigers could have effect too.

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 12:34 PM
What is with your obsession with FOBB? This can't be good for your health. If you have been paying attention, instead of following your irrational obsession with us, you would have realized most of the FOBB, are criticizing this trade for Reed inclusion and Garcia not being that good. Most of the people jumping on bashing this trade because of Olivo really could care less about stats and were on the opposite side of FOBB during discussion of the Bradford/Olivo trade. If you want to pigeonhole this well go a head but it still doesn't change the fact you are dead wrong.Whoooo, getting a little wound up are we? I have no obsession with you FOBB's. In fact, I find you quite amusing. I would suggest decaf for you, though. Even though you are young, your continual excitement can't be good for you blood pressure. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

34 Inch Stick
06-28-2004, 01:48 PM
I'm going to miss Olivo, but people need to step back from the crack pipe and look at his career stats:

G AB BA OBP SLG OPS RBI HR
166 477 .245 .295 .403 .698 58 14

Granted, he is a darn good defensive catcher, but his offense stats are nothing more than average. Let's compare his stats to Ben Davis':

G AB BA OBP SLG OPS RBI HR
432 1352 .237 .310 .362 .671 188 32

I know this is only Olivo's second season, but so far his stats are strikingly similar to Ben Davis. Also, Ben Davis is 27 and Olivo is 25.

If you can look at Olivo's stats and honestly tell me that using him in a trade to get a #1 or #2 starter is a BAD trade, I want whatever you're smokin'.
His batting average is up 33 points. He is on pace to hit 15-20 homers. He appears to be progressing in every facet of his game. While I do not put Olivo in Pudge's category I do compare him to a Molina. That is All Star caliber but not All World.

I am happy with this trade and concerned at the same time.