PDA

View Full Version : Like the Garcia trade ?


RedPinStripes
06-27-2004, 09:25 PM
Let's give the front office something to look at.

TaylorStSox
06-27-2004, 09:31 PM
Guess what I voted. :D:

HomeFish
06-27-2004, 09:32 PM
Absolutely not. This trade is horrible; it ruined the entire day for me.

RedPinStripes
06-27-2004, 09:33 PM
Guess what I voted. :D:
We'll be waiting for on the "Freddy Garcia bandwagon". :D:

DSpivack
06-27-2004, 09:33 PM
As I am a typical schizophrenic and bipolar Sox fan, can I either vote both or a yes-and-no option?

RedPinStripes
06-27-2004, 09:35 PM
Wasnt everyone crying for a 5th starter last week? Now we have a #2 or 3. Sucks giving up miguel , but you have to give up something to get something. And Kenny's not done yet.

TaylorStSox
06-27-2004, 09:35 PM
We'll be waiting for on the "Freddy Garcia bandwagon". :D:
Believe me. I hope I'm wrong.

A.T. Money
06-27-2004, 09:35 PM
Absolutely not. This trade is horrible; it ruined the entire day for me.
You're crazy!

ChiWhiteSox1337
06-27-2004, 09:37 PM
Wasnt everyone crying for a 5th starter last week? Now we have a #2 or 3. Sucks giving up miguel , but you have to give up something to get something. And Kenny's not done yet. posting in agreement with that statement. so obviously, yes.

DrCrawdad
06-27-2004, 09:37 PM
As I am a typical schizophrenic and bipolar Sox fan, can I either vote both or a yes-and-no option?

I hear ya! When Kenny makes a deal does he ask, 'Hey, is there anyone else you'd like before we finish this up?'

I sure the (heck) hope that Garcia leads the Sox pitching staff and gets the Sox to the World Series. Because if Garcia pukes out then leaves and all the Sox end up with is a compensation draft pick then the Sox have overpaid.

Iguana775
06-27-2004, 09:38 PM
Wasnt everyone crying for a 5th starter last week? Now we have a #2 or 3. Sucks giving up miguel , but you have to give up something to get something. And Kenny's not done yet.
But Miggy and Reed are HOF material!!! damnit!! this sux!!!

but if give up a catcher that plays 2 out of 5 days for a top of the rotation pitcher is a bad idea, then i guess this is a bad trade.

I can't wait till he kicks Minn's butt this week!!!

Blob
06-27-2004, 09:39 PM
Wasnt everyone crying for a 5th starter last week? Now we have a #2 or 3. Sucks giving up miguel , but you have to give up something to get something. And Kenny's not done yet.
I agree, giving up Miguel does suck but, it could have been Carlos or Maggs! And Kenny is not done yet!

Iguana775
06-27-2004, 09:41 PM
if the rumors are true that KW is trying for Kendell, then the Sox will be sitting very pretty!

CubKilla
06-27-2004, 09:42 PM
It definitely fills a need and you definitely have to give to get.

I just keep thinking to myself though that KW overpaid..... AGAIN! But if it gets the Sox to the WS, then it's worth it. If the Sox sign FG to a longterm contract at seasons end, then it's worth it. If neither happens, :angry: :angry: :angry:

Gumshoe
06-27-2004, 09:44 PM
I was all about getting Freddy Garcia. He is a proven pitcher in the AL. I double took when I heard about Olivo being included, but to get pitching like this, it's hard to argue. For the record, yes, I'm supporting KW on this move. You've gotta give up guys to get guys and why not go with a big time pitcher now who gets along with our manager when the division is there for us and Burke is a pretty solid catcher with Sandy as well. Olivo has great defensive skills and is fast, but I think this makes us better overall.

Pitching wins.

G

SoxBoy14
06-27-2004, 09:44 PM
The only reason I don't like this trade is because we had to get rid of Olivio. Sandy is a decent catcher, but he'll probably retire soon and he is no where near as good of a hitter as Olivio. But, I'm glad we got Garcia and now we have a stronger pitching staff. As long as Burke can step up to the catcher job I'll be ok. I'LL MISS YOU OLIVIO!

1951Campbell
06-27-2004, 09:45 PM
Dear front office: good job. I haven't been this excited about a trade in a while.

Dear Freddie: welcome aboard, best of luck, and enjoy the run support...I think you'll find it a welcome change!

:thumbsup:

Dan H
06-27-2004, 09:49 PM
Great trade. You have to give up something to get something. Olivio was a high price, but what good is he if you don't have someone to throw to him? Besides, with the way things are in baseball, Olivio may end up back with the Sox.

inta
06-27-2004, 09:50 PM
I love the trade and love the message it sends.
we're playing for this year.

knocko94
06-27-2004, 10:12 PM
I voted yes, but the trade will only be good in my books if we are able to resign Garcia.

doublem23
06-27-2004, 10:41 PM
Uh oh, the naysayers are down by 40 now... Sigh... Just a very loud minority.

cbrownson13
06-27-2004, 10:44 PM
Absolutely not. This trade is horrible; it ruined the entire day for me.

Care to share an argument on why?

Jeremy
06-27-2004, 10:47 PM
But Miggy and Reed are HOF material!!! damnit!! this sux!!!

but if give up a catcher that plays 2 out of 5 days for a top of the rotation pitcher is a bad idea, then i guess this is a bad trade.

I can't wait till he kicks Minn's butt this week!!!
I don't know if you can say a guy is hall of fame material when he's never had one AB in the Major League's yet, even the best of the best scouts can't forsee talent that in-depth. I hate to see Miguel go... teams are going to be running like crazy on us now. I hope Ben Davis has got a gun to throw some runners out.

Nick@Nite
06-27-2004, 10:48 PM
... 1917.

MRKARNO
06-27-2004, 10:49 PM
I like the trade in principal. If we can resign Garcia for 3-4 years, then we certainly won that trade. Olivo has solid defense, good speed and power, but he can hardly hit right handed pitching:

2002-2004 Miggy Splits
OPS against
Vs Left: .857
vs Right: .570

2004 Miggy splits:
vs. Left: 1.437
vs Right: .544

So it's proven that he can hit left handed pitching, but he can't hit righties! This might dog him the rest of his career. Besides, Schoeneweis and Buehrle werent even pitching to Olivo and Diaz wasnt either. They all want the experience of Alomar behind the plate. You keep hearing the stat about young catchers rarely leading teams the playoffs. I know Alomar is slow, old, and has no power, but he still can get base hits on offense and his experience behind the plate is something that Olivo can not and will not provide for us this year. Going with Alomar as the main catcher is the way to go in 2004. Jeremy Reed...I think he could be great, but he'll never develop a lot of power playing at Safeco. If all he turns out to be is another Mark Kotsay, then I really think we won out on this deal.

Garcia is an ace and will walk in and be our number one from the get go. I do expect his ERA to rise a bit, but we need him and if we can sign him 3-4 years, then I feel great about this deal.

doublem23
06-27-2004, 10:49 PM
I don't know if you can say a guy is hall of fame material when he's never had one AB in the Major League's yet, even the best of the best scouts can't forsee talent that in-depth. I hate to see Miguel go... teams are going to be running like crazy on us now. I hope Ben Davis has got a gun to throw some runners out.
FYI, text written in teal is meant to be sarcastic. Iguana was just making fun of the Chicken Littles who are so audicious to say Jeremy Reed will be giving a speech in Cooperstown in 25 years or so.

LoveTheSox
06-27-2004, 11:59 PM
I am very happy about adding Freddy Garcia. I think he can fill the very large hole we had in the starting rotation. I think the move shows that KW is serioius about making this team a playoff contender NOW. It's refreshing to see, but like most Sox fans, I'm going to miss Olivo a lot. He was one of my favorite players.


Goodbye Miguel...good luck in Seattle...we'll miss you!

OurBitchinMinny
06-28-2004, 12:47 AM
Well so far it looks like WSI has spoken out in favor. I voted yes, but I reserve the right to come back next year and reverse it, when freddy is in NY and miguel olivo and jeremy reed lead the mariners to the al west crown. Just kidding. I like kenny williams. It may backfire but at least the man tries. He wants to win and its hard to do for the white sox with reinsdorf.

soltrain21
06-28-2004, 12:50 AM
I love it, and I have a feeling we aren't done yet!

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 01:27 AM
I feel like many fans feel that projecting the future performance of players is a total crapshoot and that the only important factor is doing whatever is necessary to win now while worrying about the future when we come to it so I'm mostly going to sit back for now and look forward to relocating these threads in a season or two as has been done with the Loaiza signing, the Fouke-Koch trade (which was also extremely popular at the time), etc.

whtsx1959
06-28-2004, 09:36 AM
all the sox fans i knew ripped on him for having a good arm but not being able to catch a ball

I voted yes

Gumshoe
06-28-2004, 09:37 AM
Jeremy, i'm in your camp most of the time. Just some thoughts, though:

We have 2 other top outfielders in the minors. Outfielders aren't hard to get. yes, we gave up a big time prospect, and Olivo. But we have other dependable catchers ...

What we need to ask ourselves is, "What has caused the relative slide the last 2 weeks for the Sox?" or "What wins in baseball?"

We know what the answer is to those. I'm generally VERY critical of KW, but I think Garcia is a solid AL starter and we had to do this deal. I'm not really concerned of what JR might become ... we're going for it now. I respect your points though. I'm on KW's side on this deal (I've never said that before).

Gumshoe

bobj4400
06-28-2004, 09:40 AM
I voted 'yes' but only if Garcia is signed beyond this year...

chuckn98229
06-28-2004, 10:47 AM
If KW did not make this trade and the personnel involved/trade details where somehow divulged, there would be quite a bit of outrage here on WSI. It has been obvious that the pre-Freddy White Sox might make the playoffs (but probably not even come close to the World Series). So, what do you expect the GM to do? At least he is trying to make something happen within the parameters that JR sets. I really admire him for that, and I think this trade has the potential to help the Sox tremedously in the short-term and hopefully in the long-term, as well. Time will tell. Unfortunately, there will always be folks who - for every silver lining, see a dark cloud. Keep trying and hoping, Kenny. Most of us are right there with you.

daveeym
06-28-2004, 11:09 AM
This poll just prooves that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. I wish the whiners would make their gripe and drop it and quit mucking up the entire board. I don't know what point is left to make on your 20th whining post that you hadn't made in your first 10.

Dadawg_77
06-28-2004, 11:10 AM
I am not sure how much resigning Garcia would have on the trade value. Unless Garcia's relationship with Ozzie gets the Sox a home town discount, then we would have paid the same price on the open market if not cheaper one.

BigEdWalsh
06-28-2004, 11:24 AM
Good trade.

I was shocked when I heard Olivo was included. That really took me by surprise. I'll be more than shocked if we don't have another trade in the next week or 2.
I don't like at all the Ben Davis aspect. I hope he never puts on a Sox uniform. Here's hoping he's included in the next trade.....:gulp:

voodoochile
06-28-2004, 11:26 AM
I am not sure how much resigning Garcia would have on the trade value. Unless Garcia's relationship with Ozzie gets the Sox a home town discount, then we would have paid the same price on the open market if not cheaper one.
but wouldn't have had him this year... (details... details...:?: )

Dadawg_77
06-28-2004, 11:29 AM
but wouldn't have had him this year... (details... details...:?: )
I was discussing the value of having him for next year and how it effects the trade. Since Garcia is a UFA, i am saying the value for having him next year is very low. If Garcia was signed for next year then those additional years have greater value when looking at a trade. The value of 3 months of Garcia wasn't being discussed or I wasn't talking about it.

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 12:37 PM
This poll just prooves that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. I wish the whiners would make their gripe and drop it and quit mucking up the entire board. I don't know what point is left to make on your 20th whining post that you hadn't made in your first 10.Well some of them just love to read their own posts. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

habibharu
06-28-2004, 12:42 PM
good trade, but KW should have given them crede instead of olivo. i just feel that this guy is gonna be something special. it is almost impossible to find a catcher that can hit, throw, and run like miggy can. but if garcia is resigned it will be a good deal

markp8867
06-28-2004, 12:58 PM
I hate to see Miguel go as he has some great potential. Kenny will need to keep Garcia here with a long term contract though. I felt so bad for Miguel - he was too upset to talk to the media yesterday. He is such a cool guy and it sucks to lose him! Like with any trade, only time will tell if this was a good one.

GO SOX!

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 02:26 PM
Jeremy, i'm in your camp most of the time. Just some thoughts, though:

We have 2 other top outfielders in the minors. Outfielders aren't hard to get.

I agree that we have other good outfield prospects but they're just nowhere near Reed's level in my opinion. Why not throw a different outfielder in the deal. Anderson has played well but a .380 OBP in A ball isn't a .450 OBP in AA and he's still a ways away while Maggs is likely departing this offseason. Borchard has played a lot better this season but his OBP and BA are still mediocre. His walk rate is still nowhere near his breakout season in AA. If he plays next season I'd expect a performance similar to Crede's which isn't very good from a corner outfielder.

yes, we gave up a big time prospect, and Olivo. But we have other dependable catchers ...

I feel like we probably have the worst catching in baseball right now. Most catchers aren't very good but Alomar would be one of the worst hitting starting catchers in the game and can't play often with his knees, Davis has been relegated to the minors, and Burke is a journeyman that hit .220 in the minors this sesaon. Trading Olivo is one thing but right now we have a huge gaping hole that KW will need to make another move to fill because we probably don't have a replacement level catcher on the roster right now.

What we need to ask ourselves is, "What has caused the relative slide the last 2 weeks for the Sox?" or "What wins in baseball?" We know what the answer is to those.

Well my answer would be our formerly dependant top four starters getting hammered on a regular basis and getting injured while missing our second best position player. None of those factors figured to last though. I doubt Buehrle, Garland, and Loaiza will post an ERA in the 7s the rest of the way as they have the last few weeks. I'm not sure what necessitates a deal for Garcia no matter the cost.

I'm generally VERY critical of KW, but I think Garcia is a solid AL starter and we had to do this deal. I'm not really concerned of what JR might become ... we're going for it now. I respect your points though. I'm on KW's side on this deal (I've never said that before).

Acquiring Garcia is only half the deal though. Personally I don't ever think a team needs to acquire any player. It always depends on the value. If you're giving up more than you're receiving in turn you're damning your organization and it's fans. Even if we had to acquire Garcia no matter what we didn't have to give up Reed. We could've substituted Crede, he of the sub .300 OBP, and put Uribe at third according to Rogers. We probably could've included Borchard instead also. I think KW blew it by insisting on getting Garcia when other pitchers may have come at a much, much better value and doing a terrible job of evaluating his own talent by bending over backwards to include Reed.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 02:29 PM
I am not sure how much resigning Garcia would have on the trade value. Unless Garcia's relationship with Ozzie gets the Sox a home town discount, then we would have paid the same price on the open market if not cheaper one.

Thank you! This is the point I've repeatedly been trying to make. The Mariners aren't going to pay Garcia's salary next season. Acquiring him in a trade this season instead of through free agency next season is not going to lop millions off the deal and if he's Ozzie's best friend he would've signed with us anyway had we ponied up the necesarry money! Any way you cut it we paid for 15 starts this season and any he makes in the post season and no more.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:01 PM
I feel like we probably have the worst catching in baseball right now. Most catchers aren't very good but Alomar would be one of the worst hitting starting catchers in the game and can't play often with his knees, Davis has been relegated to the minors, and Burke is a journeyman that hit .220 in the minors this sesaon. Trading Olivo is one thing but right now we have a huge gaping hole that KW will need to make another move to fill because we probably don't have a replacement level catcher on the roster right now.
Except that "gaping hole" is one that is pnly present 2/5 days since that's when Olivo plays. And we won't suffer with Davis' D, just his bat. I think the gain on Garcia waaaaay more than offsets the loss of Olivo's bat 2/5 days.



Acquiring Garcia is only half the deal though. Personally I don't ever think a team needs to acquire any player. It always depends on the value. If you're giving up more than you're receiving in turn you're damning your organization and it's fans. Even if we had to acquire Garcia no matter what we didn't have to give up Reed. We could've substituted Crede, he of the sub .300 OBP, and put Uribe at third according to Rogers. We probably could've included Borchard instead also. I think KW blew it by insisting on getting Garcia when other pitchers may have come at a much, much better value and doing a terrible job of evaluating his own talent by bending over backwards to include Reed.
Not sure where the "Bending over backwards to give up Reed" comes from. He valued a 3B who's had flashes of good hitting and plays excellent D over a minor league OF who's got good numbers, but is having some adjustment issues in AAA (possibly injury-related). That's VERY different from trying to give away Reed.

And for what it's worth, it's pure conjecture that he would have been able to include Borchard isntead. You personally value Joe a ton less than Reed...but somehow you think you can swap them in deals?

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:03 PM
Thank you! This is the point I've repeatedly been trying to make. The Mariners aren't going to pay Garcia's salary next season. Acquiring him in a trade this season instead of through free agency next season is not going to lop millions off the deal and if he's Ozzie's best friend he would've signed with us anyway had we ponied up the necesarry money! Any way you cut it we paid for 15 starts this season and any he makes in the post season and no more.
Well, there is a big advantage to the team that trades for him in that we can try to resign him before the season's over. Given the relationship he has with Ozzie, that only makes that more important. Until he hits the market, he has only an estimate of what teams will offer. Once he hits the market, it's reality and in general that makes it harder to resign.

Rush20
06-28-2004, 03:07 PM
I will like this trade if (a) they sign Garcia to a new 3-year contract and (b) if they re-sign Magglio now that Reed is out of the system. I know they have a lot of $$$ into Bouchard, however if I had the choice, I would have kept Reed and moved Bouchard.

Olivo will be missed. I'm glad that his last Sox hit was a home run against the Cubs....:supernana:

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 03:12 PM
Except that "gaping hole" is one that is pnly present 2/5 days since that's when Olivo plays. And we won't suffer with Davis' D, just his bat. I think the gain on Garcia waaaaay more than offsets the loss of Olivo's bat 2/5 days.

1) Olvio catches three out of five days, not two and three fifths of our games is a lot. 2) Arguing that since we misuse him now we should trade him is poor logic. 3) Davis has always been known primarily for his offense and not his defense. I think Garcia probably offsets the loss of Olvio this season but it's not that huge a difference since we lack a league average catcher to replace him.

Not sure where the "Bending over backwards to give up Reed" comes from. He valued a 3B who's had flashes of good hitting and plays excellent D over a minor league OF who's got good numbers, but is having some adjustment issues in AAA (possibly injury-related). That's VERY different from trying to give away Reed.

Well flashes is the key word there with Crede. I disagree with the decision to give up a top prospect over a replacement level 3B but moreso there I was referring to my belief that the next best offer was close to equivalent to Olivo and Morse. Reed isn't the top of middling guy you offer to push the deal over the top.

And for what it's worth, it's pure conjecture that he would have been able to include Borchard isntead. You personally value Joe a ton less than Reed...but somehow you think you can swap them in deals?

Yeah. I think KW and Bavasi drastically undervalue Reed and probably also overvalue Borchard.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 03:14 PM
Well, there is a big advantage to the team that trades for him in that we can try to resign him before the season's over. Given the relationship he has with Ozzie, that only makes that more important. Until he hits the market, he has only an estimate of what teams will offer. Once he hits the market, it's reality and in general that makes it harder to resign.

Maybe the Ozzie talk is overblown but I doubt that we're going to sign him now or ever unless we offer him money very close to what other teams will pay him. We're not going to offer him six now and watch him accept it and avoid a situation where he found out he could get 9 on the open market. Agents ussually have a strong idea what players will command and if anything they overestimate prior to testing the waters.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:23 PM
Maybe the Ozzie talk is overblown but I doubt that we're going to sign him now or ever unless we offer him money very close to what other teams will pay him. We're not going to offer him six now and watch him accept it and avoid a situation where he found out he could get 9 on the open market. Agents ussually have a strong idea what players will command and if anything they overestimate prior to testing the waters.
Well, since reports internally (KW's "99%"), and externally (Sutcliffe's remarks) say we've got an excellent chance, and since I'm 99% sure that KW had a good idea of Garcia's contractual demands (given the Ozzie relationship), I feel pretty good about our chances. And while he wouldn't take 3mil less, he might take 1mil less to stay in a place he's comfortable with a team that can win.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 03:29 PM
Well, since reports internally (KW's "99%"), and externally (Sutcliffe's remarks) say we've got an excellent chance, and since I'm 99% sure that KW had a good idea of Garcia's contractual demands (given the Ozzie relationship), I feel pretty good about our chances. And while he wouldn't take 3mil less, he might take 1mil less to stay in a place he's comfortable with a team that can win.

I completely agree with you except that I believe giving up Reed, Olivo, and Morse for 1 million less per season on a long term deal and 15 starts this season from Garcia is atrocious.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:32 PM
1) Olvio catches three out of five days, not two and three fifths of our games is a lot. 2) Arguing that since we misuse him now we should trade him is poor logic. 3) Davis has always been known primarily for his offense and not his defense. I think Garcia probably offsets the loss of Olvio this season but it's not that huge a difference since we lack a league average catcher to replace him. I ran the numbers earlier - Olivo caught something like 62% of April, 57% of May, 52% of June. You can argue that that's misuse, or that that's because he's not as great a catcher as he's made out to be. I'm not doing either one. All I know is that he couldn't convince Ozzie that he should catch more than 50% of the time, and that his time was declining and lately he seemed ot catch Garland & Loaiza only. He wasl also hitting .198 against RH pitchers (.214 career).

So again - I don't think the decline from Olivo to Burke/Davis for the games he would have played is anywhere near as great as the benefit Garcia provides.


Well flashes is the key word there with Crede. I disagree with the decision to give up a top prospect over a replacement level 3B but moreso there I was referring to my belief that the next best offer was close to equivalent to Olivo and Morse. Reed isn't the top of middling guy you offer to push the deal over the top.I dont' know how it's a "top of middling" guy (what does that mean, anyway?). Olivo alone would never have gotten the deal done. Reed v. Contreras+cash as additions is pretty close since Jose's shown flashes of being a very goo ML pitcher, and done so at the ML level.

And as for Crede, he hit .300 in the 2d half last year with an OPS pushing .900, and for June, he's at .308./.951 He's got good power, and plays excellent D. The question is: can he pull those numbers together over a whole season? He's still young, so I'd think so. That's WAY above replacement level (although in honesty, I have no idea what statistical levels a "replacement level 3B" would be at).



Yeah. I think KW and Bavasi drastically undervalue Reed and probably also overvalue Borchard. Impossible to say, that's why I viewed that comment as pure speculation.

Dadawg_77
06-28-2004, 03:35 PM
And as for Crede, he hit .300 in the 2d half last year with an OPS pushing .900, and for June, he's at .308./.951 He's got good power, and plays excellent D. The question is: can he pull those numbers together over a whole season? He's still young, so I'd think so. That's WAY above replacement level (although in honesty, I have no idea what statistical levels a "replacement level 3B" would be at).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/vorp_player2003.html


2004 Postion AVG

LG__P___AVG___OBP___SLG___ISO_BB/PA_SO/PA_ROE/PA_SB/SBA_DP/OPP AL_p__0.098_0.103_0.132_0.034_0.013_0.430__0.009__ 0.000__0.191 AL_c__0.274_0.331_0.434_0.159_0.076_0.164__0.012__ 0.477__0.166 AL_1b_0.258_0.341_0.421_0.163_0.102_0.150__0.008__ 0.730__0.118 AL_2b_0.261_0.323_0.389_0.129_0.081_0.160__0.012__ 0.760__0.125 AL_3b_0.272_0.347_0.455_0.184_0.099_0.172__0.009__ 0.622__0.117 AL_ss_0.276_0.324_0.423_0.146_0.064_0.144__0.014__ 0.717__0.124 AL_lf_0.287_0.357_0.449_0.162_0.089_0.160__0.008__ 0.678__0.126 AL_cf_0.282_0.340_0.432_0.150_0.081_0.148__0.010__ 0.707__0.109 AL_rf_0.275_0.345_0.440_0.165_0.090_0.148__0.012__ 0.629__0.134 AL_dh_0.261_0.349_0.441_0.180_0.108_0.175__0.008__ 0.606__0.121 AL_ph_0.236_0.327_0.375_0.139_0.120_0.211__0.009__ 0.667__0.089 AL_pr_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000__0.000__ 0.654__0.000 NL_p__0.143_0.156_0.185_0.042_0.031_0.322__0.009__ 0.857__0.064 NL_c__0.261_0.321_0.398_0.138_0.071_0.146__0.009__ 0.488__0.182 NL_1b_0.282_0.365_0.489_0.207_0.110_0.165__0.008__ 0.574__0.132 NL_2b_0.276_0.336_0.411_0.135_0.078_0.132__0.011__ 0.658__0.132 NL_3b_0.272_0.329_0.432_0.160_0.074_0.140__0.013__ 0.642__0.156 NL_ss_0.267_0.312_0.380_0.114_0.066_0.141__0.010__ 0.719__0.124 NL_lf_0.275_0.365_0.476_0.201_0.119_0.185__0.008__ 0.705__0.123 NL_cf_0.264_0.331_0.429_0.165_0.089_0.164__0.008__ 0.718__0.117 NL_rf_0.261_0.343_0.451_0.190_0.107_0.192__0.009__ 0.707__0.112 NL_dh_0.250_0.337_0.432_0.182_0.106_0.174__0.007__ 0.600__0.055 NL_ph_0.226_0.296_0.355_0.129_0.084_0.233__0.006__ 0.667__0.084 NL_pr_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000_0.000__0.000__ 0.579__0.000

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:36 PM
I completely agree with you except that I believe giving up Reed, Olivo, and Morse for 1 million less per season on a long term deal and 15 starts this season from Garcia is atrocious.
You forgot to add in the playoff appearance, and with the team we have now, excellent shot at a playoff series win.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 03:38 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/vorp_player2003.html
Thanks.

That seems to indicate that Crede was 23 better than a replacement player. And that's assuming he doesn't improve, which he is quite capable of doing.

JRIG
06-28-2004, 03:47 PM
You forgot to add in the playoff appearance, and with the team we have now, excellent shot at a playoff series win.
Isn't that what everyone said after we acquired Wells in 2001? And Ritchie in 2002? And Koch in 2003? And Colon in 2003? And Everett and Alomar in 2003?

Let not count our chickens before they hatch. KW's history of making "aggressive trades" to "put us over the top" do not have any history of actually working.

lowesox
06-28-2004, 04:00 PM
I think the fact that everybody is dwelling on how we gave up Olivo is a sign of how awful this trade is. We gave up Reed - our top prospect!! He's supposed to be better than Olivo.

I could swallow this a lot easier if KW had brought back somebody who was good and young too. Hell, if it had been Garcia, Davis, and Soriano it would still have been a Mariner steal - but at least a lot closer.

Of all my days as a White Sox fan, this trade feels like the lowest for me. I have serious questions about whether or not this team will be good enough to make the playoffs - and we trade away one of my favourite White Sox and our best prospect.

This will be Kenny's worst trade to date.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 04:12 PM
All I know is that he couldn't convince Ozzie that he should catch more than 50% of the time

Haha. Well if Ozzie - the guy who wanted Perez and Gload over Borchard/Reed when Maggs went down - is making our talent evaluations that's a huge part of the problem.

So again - I don't think the decline from Olivo to Burke/Davis for the games he would have played is anywhere near as great as the benefit Garcia provides.

I'm still not sure you understand where I'm coming from here. It's not that I think Olivo is all world, I just think that Burke and Davis are really, really, really, really bad catchers. IE if Olivo can post an .800 OPS and we have an average guy who can post a .680 OPS we're not in such bad shape but Burke/Davis are the worst of the worst and might instead post a .480 OPS which is really terrible for our club.


I dont' know how it's a "top of middling" guy (what does that mean, anyway?). Olivo alone would never have gotten the deal done. Reed v. Contreras+cash as additions is pretty close since Jose's shown flashes of being a very goo ML pitcher, and done so at the ML level.

It was supposed to read "type of middling guy" meaning mediocre prospect. I agree Olivo and Morse probably doesn't quite get the deal done but throw in a guy like Haigwood or Bajerneau or Majewski that's mediocre not Reed who's incredible.

And as for Crede, he hit .300 in the 2d half last year with an OPS pushing .900, and for June, he's at .308./.951 He's got good power, and plays excellent D. The question is: can he pull those numbers together over a whole season? He's still young, so I'd think so. That's WAY above replacement level (although in honesty, I have no idea what statistical levels a "replacement level 3B" would be at).

Well DaDawg's post showed Crede was at 23 runs above replacement or two about two wins which means about two games which is more like average than replacement level. I was referring to this season moreso but yeah I was exagerating a bit. I wouldn't say Crede is still young. He's 26 and most guys hit their prime at 27 or 28 at the latest. He's just had his second horrific start in two seasons and it'd be extremely hard for him to improve on (or perhaps even to match) his numbers from last season at this point.



Impossible to say, that's why I viewed that comment as pure speculation.

Well there are definitive practices for evaluating prospects the value of which is debatable I suppose. In my opinion though, the methods used by Bavasi and KW undervalued him since he was considered comparable to Crede by both GMs.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 04:25 PM
Haha. Well if Ozzie - the guy who wanted Perez and Gload over Borchard/Reed when Maggs went down - is making our talent evaluations that's a huge part of the problem.FWIW - I think Ozzie's PT decision was made more with the idea that the standard rookie struggles would both hurt the team and reduce trade value for Reed/Borchard. I also dont' think that platooning either one of them would be putting them in good position to adjust to MLB pitching. As for Olivo - all I know is that his numbers v. RH hadn't improved much, and given our catching options and the fact that Alomar's not exactly Piazza with a bat - Olivo couldn't get ahead of him. That has implications for his game calling and defensive skills. He could be misused, or he could be another guy with a ton of talent who isn't able to capitalize on it.



I'm still not sure you understand where I'm coming from here. It's not that I think Olivo is all world, I just think that Burke and Davis are really, really, really, really bad catchers. IE if Olivo can post an .800 OPS and we have an average guy who can post a .680 OPS we're not in such bad shape but Burke/Davis are the worst of the worst and might instead post a .480 OPS which is really terrible for our club.
Still - 50% of the time, we have this discrepancy at bat. Defensively, were OK and the other 50% of the time, we have no change. Garcia way outweighs that. And that's assuming KW doesn't make another deal for a catcher.



It was supposed to read "type of middling guy" meaning mediocre prospect. I agree Olivo and Morse probably doesn't quite get the deal done but throw in a guy like Haigwood or Bajerneau or Majewski that's mediocre not Reed who's incredible.Somehow, given what the Yanks supposedly had on the table, I dont' see Olivo+2 middling to low level prospects getting it done.


Well DaDawg's post showed Crede was at 23 runs above replacement or two about two wins which means about two games which is more like average than replacement level. I was referring to this season moreso but yeah I was exagerating a bit. I wouldn't say Crede is still young. He's 26 and most guys hit their prime at 27 or 28 at the latest. He's just had his second horrific start in two seasons and it'd be extremely hard for him to improve on (or perhaps even to match) his numbers from last season at this point.
Crede had 200AB in .02 & a .826OPS, then in his first full year (last year), he dropped to .741, but almost .900 after the break. This year, he seems to have started his improvement a month earlier. I think it's way too early to say he's unlikely to continue to develop. It's more likely, IMO that we see continued improvement next year.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 04:38 PM
FWIW - I think Ozzie's PT decision was made more with the idea that the standard rookie struggles would both hurt the team and reduce trade value for Reed/Borchard. I also dont' think that platooning either one of them would be putting them in good position to adjust to MLB pitching.

Yep and that type of baseless foundation about "standard rookie struggles" when you have guys that are clearly not good players as your other options is discouraging.

Still - 50% of the time, we have this discrepancy at bat. Defensively, were OK and the other 50% of the time, we have no change. Garcia way outweighs that. And that's assuming KW doesn't make another deal for a catcher.

First of all, not to split hairs but where did 50% come from? You said 60 then 58 then 52 percent or something for each month. All of those figures are higher than 50%. Furthermore, you've never explained how misusing Olivo is a good justification for dealing him. Two wrongs don't make a right. Most importantly even if we're talking about half our games that's a ton if you have unbelievably bad catchers.

Somehow, given what the Yanks supposedly had on the table, I dont' see Olivo+2 middling to low level prospects getting it done.

1. I consider Morse at least slightly better than "middling".
2. After Navarro the Yanks have little more than middling prospects so I don't see how their offer is better. You really didn't give any reason there you just repeated your assertion.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 04:58 PM
Yep and that type of baseless foundation about "standard rookie struggles" when you have guys that are clearly not good players as your other options is discouraging.OK, it's possible that Reed could have come up and hit .350 from the get go. It's much more possible that he could have started slowly due to adjusting to better quality pitching & scouting of player's weaknesses that goes on at the MLB level.

If Ozzie was willing to let him work through those struggles on the field, OK - but the team has to be willing or able to withstand that. In the midst of a division chase (even though it's early), having just lost one of your offensive cornerstones....IMO that's not the time to do that.

Now isntead, if you platoon Reed (or Borchard) - that makes the adjustment period that much harder & longer, and likely devalues the player for any potential trade.



First of all, not to split hairs but where did 50% come from? You said 60 then 58 then 52 percent or something for each month. All of those figures are higher than 50%. Furthermore, you've never explained how misusing Olivo is a good justification for dealing him. Two wrongs don't make a right. Most importantly even if we're talking about half our games that's a ton if you have unbelievably bad catchers.I rounded down from his current rate. It seems unlikely that the rate would go up given that as he's been with the team longer, Ozzie's reduced his PT.

As for "misusing" him - the implication is that he's a better defensive catcher and game-caller than the other options. That's not a fact. If indeed, his skills in those areas weren't developing, that would make his loss less severe. (And I say this as a big MO fan, who thinks he could develop into an all-star caliber catcher. It's just that he hasn't shown that yet, and while its' still early, that's what makes him still a developing prospect with some questions about him).



1. I consider Morse at least slightly better than "middling".
2. After Navarro the Yanks have little more than middling prospects so I don't see how their offer is better. You really didn't give any reason there you just repeated your assertion.
I can only go by what I've seen reported earlier, which is Navarro+Contreras+cash. IMO, that's a pretty solid deal and I don't see Olivo+Morse+middling prospect to be better than that. IMO, Reed+Olivo+Morse isn't dramatically better than that.

MarkPloch
06-28-2004, 05:31 PM
To all who think this trade was a bad idea, get outa my face. The future is now. You may all be desiring a dynasty. The 85 Bears were supposed to win 5 Super Bowls, dynastys are not guarenteed. Even the mighy Braves have only one World Series to show for theirs efforts. I thought Olivo was great and should be a future All Star. Reed and the other guy are a mute point as they are question marks at best. I love that they didn't wait for the Yankees to get in their way.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 06:04 PM
OK, it's possible that Reed could have come up and hit .350 from the get go. It's much more possible that he could have started slowly due to adjusting to better quality pitching & scouting of player's weaknesses that goes on at the MLB level.

It's not that I think he would've set the world on fire, it's that I think very little of Gload and Perez as regulars hence we had nothing to lose.

I rounded down from his current rate. It seems unlikely that the rate would go up given that as he's been with the team longer, Ozzie's reduced his PT.

Well if Ozzie's dumb enough to play Olivo, our franchise catcher, half the time as he continues to improve and mature I just don't know what to do with this team.

As for "misusing" him - the implication is that he's a better defensive catcher and game-caller than the other options. That's not a fact. If indeed, his skills in those areas weren't developing, that would make his loss less severe. (And I say this as a big MO fan, who thinks he could develop into an all-star caliber catcher. It's just that he hasn't shown that yet, and while its' still early, that's what makes him still a developing prospect with some questions about him).

I think it's pretty indisputable that Olivo is a far better defensive option than Alomar, Burke, and, Davis. He has a cannon for an arm. His reputation has long been tied to stellar defense. As for game calling, we're getting to the point in these debates where I no longer have the time to rehash arguments. My opinion (and there are strong reasons to support it) is that game calling is of incredibly little importance. See one of the two Olivo threads for more.

I can only go by what I've seen reported earlier, which is Navarro+Contreras+cash. IMO, that's a pretty solid deal and I don't see Olivo+Morse+middling prospect to be better than that. IMO, Reed+Olivo+Morse isn't dramatically better than that.

Yeah but you've still never explained how much cash (it'd have to be tons to pay for all of Contreras' salary) or more importantly how Contreras would be a good fit for Seattle in any way shape or form. Regardless even if Olivo Morse and a middling prospect isn't enough then here are some guys I'd rather throw in as the third player: Ryan Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Joe Borchard, Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand, Arnie Munoz, Jon Rauch, Rob Valido, and the list goes on. Pick one.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 06:05 PM
To all who think this trade was a bad idea, get outa my face. The future is now. You may all be desiring a dynasty. The 85 Bears were supposed to win 5 Super Bowls, dynastys are not guarenteed. Even the mighy Braves have only one World Series to show for theirs efforts. I thought Olivo was great and should be a future All Star. Reed and the other guy are a mute point as they are question marks at best. I love that they didn't wait for the Yankees to get in their way.

Do you read any of the posts first? Or does your brain just function as "I like wins. Freddy Garcia is good. Scott Ruffcorn." Every single issue you raised in that post including the Sox chances of winning this season, the merits of a win now approach based on how a team is situated, the ability to project young players, the specific merits of Reed, and the specific merits of Olivo have been discussed yet you completely choose to ignore each and every one of them and just tell people to "get outa [your] face". Great Post.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 06:10 PM
Yeah but you've still never explained how much cash (it'd have to be tons to pay for all of Contreras' salary) or more importantly how Contreras would be a good fit for Seattle in any way shape or form. Regardless even if Olivo Morse and a middling prospect isn't enough then here are some guys I'd rather throw in as the third player: Ryan Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Joe Borchard, Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand, Arnie Munoz, Jon Rauch, Rob Valido, and the list goes on. Pick one.
The point is that I don't think that any of them gets the deal done. And given the vagaries of even highly touted prospects, I think a proven Garcia NOW is worth an unproven Reed in a year or 2 (or more likely 3-4 by the time he reaches his "real" level).

FYI - in another thread,someone posted that Reed hit like .325 in April, but like .250 since. Did he get hurt (I thought the wrist thing was a rpevious injury) or is he having trouble as pitchers adjust to him?

FarWestChicago
06-28-2004, 06:15 PM
Do you read any of the posts first?My god Jeremy, who could? http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/eek.gif

You are one serious spamming machine. And the Leo Tolstoy verison no less. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

We heard you the first 117 times. I know you love to read your own posts and sincerely believe you are a titanic intellect sharing your wisdom with the masses, but most people don't agree. You are the one who needs to find a new technique. Condescending, novel length spam is not garnishing you a great following.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 08:26 PM
The point is that I don't think that any of them gets the deal done.

Sorry, you're just not really giving me any reason why that's true other than your opinion. I feel it'd be a better deal based on my evaluations of those players and evaluations of those players by various media outlets and that our package would fit the M's rebuilding plan better. I've explained to you why and if all you have to offer is "I don't think any of them" gets it done, I don't see how to debate it any further.


And given the vagaries of even highly touted prospects, I think a proven Garcia NOW is worth an unproven Reed in a year or 2 (or more likely 3-4 by the time he reaches his "real" level).

FYI - in another thread,someone posted that Reed hit like .325 in April, but like .250 since. Did he get hurt (I thought the wrist thing was a rpevious injury) or is he having trouble as pitchers adjust to him?

Sorry I don't know what else to say here as we've had about a dozen posts back and forth that address these issues. I don't think Garcia gets us what we need to justify the deal (the Series), I don't think it's a given it'll take Reed a long time to develop since he's already in AAA, and I don't think a bad month and a half is enough to draw any conclusion whatsoever about Reed's ability to succeed in AAA. The sample size is incredibly small.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 08:27 PM
My god Jeremy, who could? http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/eek.gif

You are one serious spamming machine. And the Leo Tolstoy verison no less. http://www.flyingsock.com/vbulletin/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

We heard you the first 117 times. I know you love to read your own posts and sincerely believe you are a titanic intellect sharing your wisdom with the masses, but most people don't agree. You are the one who needs to find a new technique. Condescending, novel length spam is not garnishing you a great following.

Well in my experience when people quote your post and make comments they want to debate an issue with you so I oblige. If you don't want me to post the best idea is not to direct posts at me because obviously I'm going to respond to them. My goal isn't for people to like me in this setting, it's to expose a viewpoint that might be neglected otherwise. If people are reading my posts which they clearly are from the number of responses I don't feel my time here is wasted.

MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 08:31 PM
Well in my experience when people quote your post and make comments they want to debate an issue with you so I oblige. If you don't want me to post the best idea is not to direct posts at me because obviously I'm going to respond to them. My goal isn't for people to like me in this setting, it's to expose a viewpoint that might be neglected otherwise. If people are reading my posts which they clearly are from the number of responses I don't feel my time here is wasted.
You've made your point. Everyone heard you. Move on until your point is proven or disproven. Olivo and Reed havent stepped on the field since your arguement and the true winner of this trade probably wont be determined until at least December, possibly not for a few years. Freddy Garcia is a White Sox starter. Olivo is a Mariner. Reed is a Mariner farmhand.

Flight #24
06-28-2004, 08:53 PM
Sorry, you're just not really giving me any reason why that's true other than your opinion. I feel it'd be a better deal based on my evaluations of those players and evaluations of those players by various media outlets and that our package would fit the M's rebuilding plan better. I've explained to you why and if all you have to offer is "I don't think any of them" gets it done, I don't see how to debate it any further.I can say the same. Youve offered nothing that indicates that Bavasi was even interested in Borchard other than "because he valued Crede over Reed, he would have valued Borchard, et al".

But you're right, there's no point debating it without any additional information.



Sorry I don't know what else to say here as we've had about a dozen posts back and forth that address these issues. I don't think Garcia gets us what we need to justify the deal (the Series), I don't think it's a given it'll take Reed a long time to develop since he's already in AAA, and I don't think a bad month and a half is enough to draw any conclusion whatsoever about Reed's ability to succeed in AAA. The sample size is incredibly small. I actually agree with you on Reed, you can't tell how he'll end up doing in AAA.
Which means you don't know that he'll dominate and/or be the stud player you project him to be (All you know is so far, he hasn't shown it). That's my point in all of this. We traded 2 could-bes for 1 is-already. And even if the could-bes end up being good, it'll be in at least 3 years whereas Garcia gives us an excellent chance to win NOW.

I believe this horse is 1000% dead, and it seems our public debate's not that popular anymore......so PM me if you want to carry this debate on further. It's been a pleasure to exchange opinions with one whose thoughts are well-laid out and rational.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 09:02 PM
I can say the same. Youve offered nothing that indicates that Bavasi was even interested in Borchard other than "because he valued Crede over Reed, he would have valued Borchard, et al".

Not true. My argument that Borchard would've gotten the deal done was based on the analysis of what players the Yankees - agreed to be the next highest bidder by all parties - had available and the Mariners' obvious organizational needs in a rebuilding process. I find it nearly impossible the M's would've accepted the proposed Yankees deal over Morse, Borchard, and Olivo. As is true with Reed, the Yanks don't have two players in their system as valuable as Olivo and Borchard, they have one of the weakest farm systems and the worst minor league depth of any team in baseball.


I actually agree with you on Reed, you can't tell how he'll end up doing in AAA. Which means you don't know that he'll dominate and/or be the stud player you project him to be (All you know is so far, he hasn't shown it). That's my point in all of this. We traded 2 could-bes for 1 is-already. And even if the could-bes end up being good, it'll be in at least 3 years whereas Garcia gives us an excellent chance to win NOW.

My argument with Reed was not that you can't tell how he'll end up doing in AAA it was that you can't infer much about how he will do in AAA based on 250 PAs. I never agreed that the default was a complete lack of knowledge and some sort of random coin flip. As I've said a number of times the default is then to go back to the large body of evidence which is his stellar performance in his entire pro career up until this point.

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 09:05 PM
You've made your point. Everyone heard you. Move on until your point is proven or disproven. Olivo and Reed havent stepped on the field since your arguement and the true winner of this trade probably wont be determined until at least December, possibly not for a few years. Freddy Garcia is a White Sox starter. Olivo is a Mariner. Reed is a Mariner farmhand.

Well I don't really understand why you're reading this thread if you feel like the trade is over and there's no point discussing it again for months. I don't understand why these threads haven't been closed and everyone else has ceased to discuss the trade for that matter. Again, I'm not talking to myself here. Everyone is not clear with my opinion and tired of it or people such as Flight wouldn't be responding to my posts. My suggestion is that if you're clear on my opinion and have no more use for it you skip over my posts in these threads. If that's too much of a hassel put me on ignore and if lengthy debates on the trade seem pointless to you right now then avoid these threads all together.

RedPinStripes
06-28-2004, 09:29 PM
Well I don't really understand why you're reading this thread if you feel like the trade is over and there's no point discussing it again for months. I don't understand why these threads haven't been closed and everyone else has ceased to discuss the trade for that matter. Again, I'm not talking to myself here. Everyone is not clear with my opinion and tired of it or people such as Flight wouldn't be responding to my posts. My suggestion is that if you're clear on my opinion and have no more use for it you skip over my posts in these threads. If that's too much of a hassel put me on ignore and if lengthy debates on the trade seem pointless to you right now then avoid these threads all together.More posts like this and it will be closed. Where's the ignore hack!:bandance:

MRKARNO
06-28-2004, 09:36 PM
Well I don't really understand why you're reading this thread if you feel like the trade is over and there's no point discussing it again for months. I don't understand why these threads haven't been closed and everyone else has ceased to discuss the trade for that matter. Again, I'm not talking to myself here. Everyone is not clear with my opinion and tired of it or people such as Flight wouldn't be responding to my posts. My suggestion is that if you're clear on my opinion and have no more use for it you skip over my posts in these threads. If that's too much of a hassel put me on ignore and if lengthy debates on the trade seem pointless to you right now then avoid these threads all together.
Out of curiosity, do you consider yourself a baseball fan that focuses on the White Sox or a White Sox fan that also focues on the rest of baseball?

jeremyb1
06-28-2004, 10:27 PM
Out of curiosity, do you consider yourself a baseball fan that focuses on the White Sox or a White Sox fan that also focues on the rest of baseball?

Probably more of the latter. I don't really care about any other team's success outside of maybe the Yankees and the Cubs.

Wealz
06-28-2004, 10:32 PM
I have to side with jeremy. There are a lot of things about this trade NOT to like and that's before factoring in Garcia pitching at the Cell. I hope I'm wrong, but I think he's in for a rough go. I'd be ecstatic if he's able to keep his ERA around 4.00.