PDA

View Full Version : Rob Neyer and Bill James Chat


fledgedrallycap
06-15-2004, 04:07 PM
This might not be worthy of a new thread, but I thought this was pretty funny to note that in the ESPN Chat with Rob Neyer and Bill James today, someone asked James who would have a better career, Mark Buehrle or Kerry Wood? Anyone care to take a guess?

http://espn.go.com/editors/chat/img/espn.gifBill James: Kerry Wood.

That's right, nice job of backing up your claim, too!

SoxFan76
06-15-2004, 04:16 PM
This might not be worthy of a new thread, but I thought this was pretty funny to note that in the ESPN Chat with Rob Neyer and Bill James today, someone asked James who would have a better career, Mark Buehrle or Kerry Wood? Anyone care to take a guess?

http://espn.go.com/editors/chat/img/espn.gifBill James: Kerry Wood.

That's right, nice job of backing up your claim, too!
Glad to see these guys actually watch baseball. Seriously, Buerhle has done so much more in his career, and Wood has been in the majors longer.

daveeym
06-15-2004, 04:20 PM
What does any of that have to do with the price of tea in china. Wood would be chosen as the better closer by 99% of people he throws harder and has more movement on everything he throws. Hell it's where he'll end up eventually anyways so he won't have to throw as many innings.

The Cheat
06-15-2004, 04:35 PM
That's not news. Bill James believe that Strikeout pitchers are the best kind of pitchers because they get hitters out without the need of the defence.

fledgedrallycap
06-15-2004, 04:43 PM
That's not news. Bill James believe that Strikeout pitchers are the best kind of pitchers because they get hitters out without the need of the defence.
Are you serious? That is the dumbest theory of all-time. Last time I checked, Nolan Ryan owns that record and he's barely a .500 pitcher.

CanOfCorn
06-15-2004, 04:46 PM
That's not news. Bill James believe that Strikeout pitchers are the best kind of pitchers because they get hitters out without the need of the defence.
Not quite. The James school likes strikeouts, but they're a bigger fan of K/BB ratios.

But I think Wood's injury history is a little too cluttered for him to be considered to have a brighter future than Buehrle.

jackbrohamer
06-15-2004, 05:03 PM
Rob Neyer has what seems to be an unhealthy fixation on Bill James. At least back when I used to read Neyer's crap. I'm surprised he's willing to take time out from swooning over James to answer any questions

kittle42
06-15-2004, 05:31 PM
I have never understood the fascination over Buehrle v. Wood. They are both very, very good, and Buehrle might have a longer career and accomplish more in many senses, but if I had to choose one of them to pitch a game, I'd take Mr. "Woods."

CanOfCorn
06-15-2004, 05:35 PM
Neyer got his start working as James' assistant.

ma-gaga
06-15-2004, 07:27 PM
Are you serious? That is the dumbest theory of all-time. Last time I checked, Nolan Ryan owns that record and he's barely a .500 pitcher.

:nolanventura
"Nolan Ryan sucks"


geeze... sometimes I wonder what they put in the water.

doublem23
06-15-2004, 07:30 PM
Are you serious? That is the dumbest theory of all-time. Last time I checked, Nolan Ryan owns that record and he's barely a .500 pitcher.
Can we please not use W/L record as a means to evaluate pitchers individually?

MarkEdward
06-15-2004, 08:03 PM
That's not news. Bill James believe that Strikeout pitchers are the best kind of pitchers because they get hitters out without the need of the defence.
James' theory (backed up by a study he did in his Historical Abstract) is that pitchers with high strikeout rates tend to have longer careers than those with low strikeout rates. You seem to be talking about Voros McCracken's DIPS theory, which James had no hand in developing.

The Wood vs. Buehrle question took place in a chat setting, so James wasn't going to type out a long-winded, scientific answer backed up by stats and historical examples. If you're going to criticize Neyer or James, critique something they put time into, like a strudy or an article. Critiquing a chat is petty and frivolous.

Hondo
06-15-2004, 08:06 PM
James' theory (backed up by a study he did in his Historical Abstract) is that pitchers with high strikeout rates tend to have longer careers than those with low strikeout rates. You seem to be talking about Voros McCracken's DIPS theory, which James had no hand in developing.

The Wood vs. Buehrle question took place in a chat setting, so James wasn't going to type out a long-winded, scientific answer backed up by stats and historical examples. If you're going to criticize Neyer or James, critique something they put time into, like a strudy or an article. Critiquing a chat is petty and frivolous.
Hey Mark,

Is the DIPS theory the one where it has to do with once a ball is put into play unless it's a homerun it's purely luck? I heard about it once and vaguely remember it.

TaylorStSox
06-15-2004, 08:22 PM
Can we please not use W/L record as a means to evaluate pitchers individually?
Why? The only stat that really matters is W/L. Give me a guy that consistantly wins 20 games with a 4 ERA over Wood with a 2 ERA.

Good pitchers can have inflated ERA's because they throw strikes while in the lead.

doublem23
06-15-2004, 08:25 PM
Why? The only stat that really matters is W/L. Give me a guy that consistantly wins 20 games with a 4 ERA over Wood with a 2 ERA.

Good pitchers can have inflated ERA's because they throw strikes while in the lead.Since the point of baseball is to score the most runs you can and allow the least, I'd take the .500 guy with an ERA around 2 over the 20-game winner at 4. Yes, in terms of the team game, W-L are all that matter, but when trying to evaluate an individual's talent, the W-L record is terrible because there are so many variables completely out of the pitcher's hand.

ERA is a far more valuable stat than W-L.

Hondo
06-15-2004, 08:26 PM
Why? The only stat that really matters is W/L. Give me a guy that consistantly wins 20 games with a 4 ERA over Wood with a 2 ERA.

Good pitchers can have inflated ERA's because they throw strikes while in the lead.
To play devil's advocate, W-L is contingent upon other players producing runs.

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 08:27 PM
Hey Mark,

Is the DIPS theory the one where it has to do with once a ball is put into play unless it's a homerun it's purely luck? I heard about it once and vaguely remember it.
The theory is pitchers have little to no control on how balls are put into play, thus pitchers can not prevent hits on balls put into play.

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 08:29 PM
To play devil's advocate, W-L is contingent upon other players producing runs.
But that fact doesn't get through to some.

As for Ryan, his biggest problem was he walked too many people.

maurice
06-15-2004, 08:35 PM
I'll criticize James' conclusion and not his lack of effort. Wood's injury history and Buehrle's relative success to date indicate that Buehrle will have a better career.

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 08:46 PM
I'll criticize James' conclusion and not his lack of effort. Wood's injury history and Buehrle's relative success to date indicate that Buehrle will have a better career.
Its about the prototype. Wood's elbow is a concern but high strikeout pitchers last longer at a higer level. If Wood elbow holds up, he will have a better career then Mark.

TaylorStSox
06-15-2004, 08:51 PM
Since the point of baseball is to score the most runs you can and allow the least, I'd take the .500 guy with an ERA around 2 over the 20-game winner at 4. Yes, in terms of the team game, W-L are all that matter, but when trying to evaluate an individual's talent, the W-L record is terrible because there are so many variables completely out of the pitcher's hand.

ERA is a far more valuable stat than W-L.
I disagree. ERA's a more valuable stat when talking about a guy's stuff. W/L proves that a pitcher knows how to win games. Wood and Ryan are great examples of this. Million dollar arms/10 cent heads.

doublem23
06-15-2004, 08:57 PM
I disagree. ERA's a more valuable stat when talking about a guy's stuff. W/L proves that a pitcher knows how to win games. Wood and Ryan are great examples of this. Million dollar arms/10 cent heads.With Ryan it's a bit different, since he is more a prodigy of a past era of pitching that basically said leave your starter in as long as possible because he would give you the best chance to win. Wood, has just been the product of some miserable Cub offenses and horrendous bullpens.

A pitcher's individual W-L doesn't prove anything beyond how good a team a pitcher plays for, in most cases.

And, anyway, even if this is to be a debate between a guy's natural ability and his head, much like the hustle v. talent debate, I'll take the guy who can naturally throw harder, nastier stuff than the guy who needs to think and be sharp to win.

maurice
06-15-2004, 08:59 PM
Its about the prototype. Wood's elbow is a concern but high strikeout pitchers last longer at a higer level. If Wood elbow holds up, he will have a better career then Mark.
I understand James' perspective, but I'm surprised to see you endorsing it. I thought you favored MLB record over all else.

It is illogical to presume that a pitcher with Wood's prototype will always have a better career than a pitcher with Buehrle's prototype. (You're aware of plenty of contrary examples.) Besides, Wood's health is a huge "if" at this juncture, particularly relative to Buerhle.

Wood has better stuff, but (IMHO) this is more than negated by his poor health history. Every other relevant factor (age, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, health history, mechanics, control, mental makeup) is either neutral or favors Buerhle.

TaylorStSox
06-15-2004, 09:01 PM
With Ryan it's a bit different, since he is more a prodigy of a past era of pitching that basically said leave your starter in as long as possible because he would give you the best chance to win. Wood, has just been the product of some miserable Cub offenses and horrendous bullpens.

A pitcher's individual W-L doesn't prove anything beyond how good a team a pitcher plays for, in most cases.
Again, I disagree. Wood's W/L record sucks because he doesn't know how to pitch. It's indicitive of his approach. Good pitchers keep their team in games.

Ryan's W/L record sucks for the same reason. He lacked wisdom throughout his entire career.

BTW, I take it that you're a FOBB?

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 09:05 PM
I understand James' perspective, but I'm surprised to see you endorsing it. I thought you favored MLB record over all else.

It is illogical to presume that a pitcher with Wood's prototype will always have a better career than a pitcher with Buehrle's prototype. (You're aware of plenty of contrary examples.) Besides, Wood's health is a huge "if" at this juncture, particularly relative to Buerhle.

Wood has better stuff, but (IMHO) this is more than negated by his poor health history. Every other relevant factor (age, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, health history, mechanics, control, mental makeup) is either neutral or favors Buerhle.
MBL record is only end all be all for team managment, Ozzie and Kenny. Since they put together and manage the team, they are accountable for its record. A player is only accountable for their production. If they preform well, they are helping their team win. So for a pitcher W-L record isn't the most relevant measure for a pitcher.

doublem23
06-15-2004, 09:06 PM
BTW, I take it that you're a FOBB?
Mildly... I think stats tell a lot more of a player's story than just "eye witness" accounts, but they don't tell the whole story.

Anyway, if you can't believe that the guy who allows the least amount of runs puts you in the best position to win, then we may as well just drop this debate because we're never going to get anywhere. I find that statement to be one of the fundamental pillars of winning baseball.

TaylorStSox
06-15-2004, 09:09 PM
Mildly... I think stats tell a lot more of a player's story than just "eye witness" accounts, but they don't tell the whole story.

Anyway, if you can't believe that the guy who allows the least amount of runs puts you in the best position to win, then we may as well just drop this debate because we're never going to get anywhere. I find that statement to be one of the fundamental pillars of winning baseball.
Agreed. I understand your argument. Most people agree with you and it's currently the trendy stat, much like .OBA for hitters.

I agree to disagree.

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 09:12 PM
Again, I disagree. Wood's W/L record sucks because he doesn't know how to pitch. It's indicitive of his approach. Good pitchers keep their team in games.

Ryan's W/L record sucks for the same reason. He lacked wisdom throughout his entire career.

BTW, I take it that you're a FOBB?
And you are a flat earther (see WSI dictionary) but what does it matter if someone is a FOBB or not? I think you summary of Wood pitching is completely off, making judgements on mental calamities based on his bullpen is sox biased at best. If Wood was on the Sox, we would be heaping praise on him. Also 20 wins means a lot more today then it did in the past. 15 wins is the equivalent of 20 wins 15 years ago.

TaylorStSox
06-15-2004, 09:19 PM
And you are a flat earther (see WSI dictionary) but what does it matter if someone is a FOBB or not? I think you summary of Wood pitching is completely off, making judgements on mental calamities based on his bullpen is sox biased at best. If Wood was on the Sox, we would be heaping praise on him. Also 20 wins means a lot more today then it did in the past. 15 wins is the equivalent of 20 wins 15 years ago.
Sox bias? Well, I don't dislike the Cubs at all. Obviously, your assumption is a bit off.

Secondly, I've seen Wood pitch a ton. Yes, he has great stuff. But, he has Nolan Ryan syndrome. He tries to strike everyone out instead of relying on his defense. He fails in tight games due to his lack of pitching knowledge and feel for the game.

FOBB will never understand the intangibles that makes good players become great players. Wood lacks all of these intangibles and will probably never have them.

Where as, a guy like MB, while lacking the arm, has those intangibles. He has a knack for winning and the numbers will show.

JRIG
06-15-2004, 09:34 PM
I disagree. ERA's a more valuable stat when talking about a guy's stuff. W/L proves that a pitcher knows how to win games. Wood and Ryan are great examples of this. Million dollar arms/10 cent heads.
Does that mean Loaiza doesn't "know how to win" since he lost not one but TWO 1-0 games to the Tigers last year?

Dadawg_77
06-15-2004, 09:41 PM
Sox bias? Well, I don't dislike the Cubs at all. Obviously, your assumption is a bit off.

Secondly, I've seen Wood pitch a ton. Yes, he has great stuff. But, he has Nolan Ryan syndrome. He tries to strike everyone out instead of relying on his defense. He fails in tight games due to his lack of pitching knowledge and feel for the game.

FOBB will never understand the intangibles that makes good players become great players. Wood lacks all of these intangibles and will probably never have them.

Where as, a guy like MB, while lacking the arm, has those intangibles. He has a knack for winning and the numbers will show.Intangibles is all you have? I think either team feels they will win with either pitcher on the mound, thus I feel there is no intangible gap.

Kerry's walks are down, his k/bb is over 3 and for guy with k/9 over 10 that is nice. Your reliance on W/L record has some major holes which havn't been pointed out yet. Such as NL pitcher is more likely to get pulled quicker then an AL pitcher do to hitting. Kerry, other then when he got hurt, has only one non quality start and that was opening day which he won. Also you need to concider effect of 5 man rotation reduceing the amount of starts a pitcher gets, thus 15 wins is equivant of 20 wins 15 years ago. The scary thing about Kerry is his walk are falling, K/BB is over 3 while his K/9 is above 10. I would take Kerry Wood in a heart beat of Mark. Lets not forget Mark will struggle time to time and won't put ERA in 2s.

jeremyb1
06-15-2004, 09:41 PM
Again, I disagree. Wood's W/L record sucks because he doesn't know how to pitch. It's indicitive of his approach. Good pitchers keep their team in games.

Ryan's W/L record sucks for the same reason. He lacked wisdom throughout his entire career.


Yeah those guys should have the wisdom to tell their offense to score 9 runs behind them like Buehrle does. Even if you believe intangibles exist that allow pitchers to win games other than how many runs they allow, pitchers are still incapable of controlling how many runs their team score which is half of the equation, no? The fact that you can't get a win if your team scores zero runs clearly indicates pitchers' lack of control over won loss. Even if these intangibles come into play, W L is still faulty because you can't seperate what the pitcher controls versus defense and run support.

A. Cavatica
06-15-2004, 10:49 PM
Buehrle will have the better career.

On the other hand, if Buehrle and Wood traded places, I'd believe Wood would have the better career. It wouldn't necessarily have to do with performance; I just think it must be better to have a career with the Sox than a career with the Cubbies.:rolleyes:

TomParrish79
06-15-2004, 11:28 PM
I think Buehrle will have the better career, Wood will eventually have major arm problems that will end his career. These little nagging injuries are a sign of things to come.