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View Full Version : Another crazy trade idea .


RedPinStripes
05-31-2004, 12:28 PM
First off, does anyone know the contract status on Levon Hernandez? I would imagine he's making pretty good money. Not sure if the Sox would want to take on that money , but here's just an idea.

Lee, Rauch, Munos, for Hernandez.

Some might think it's a lot, but this would be a move to put this tema over the top. Hernandez would be a gtrat #3. I wouldnt have any complaints having Garland as a #5.

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 12:50 PM
That's just too much to give up for Livan. KW has pretty much said that while nobody is safe, more likely than not we will deal prospects, not regulars because KW is going to go for it this year. I am very much in favor of acquiring Livan, maybe even more so than Freddy Garcia, but they're going to have to take prospects. I'm willing to give up a Borchard or any AAA talent besides Reed at this point to get a 5th starter. Outside of Munoz, Honel, Sweeney, Anderson, Reed and maybe Brandon McCarthy (because he could be awesome. His ability to strike people out is incredible) we should be willing to trade anyone in our system. If it really came down to it I would make Sweeney, Anderson and Reed untouchable.

Livan will make 4 mil in 2004, 8 mil in 2005, 8 mil in 2006 and 7 mil in 2007

The Critic
05-31-2004, 12:50 PM
I think it's a bit too much to trade for LIVAN Hernandez, but I've never seen LEVON Hernandez, so I can't say if that trade makes sense or not.... :D:

TaylorStSox
05-31-2004, 12:56 PM
We can definitely get Livan for less.

Regarding trading prospects: I have to be honest. I'm more willing to deal Reed than the other big 3 outfield prospects. The reason is based on tools and ceiling. I've followed Reed since we drafted him, so I'm not biased. However, realistically Reed projects as a Kotsay type player. Kotsay's a solid player. But, I'm not willing to trade guys with a much higher ceiling. i.e. Anderson, Sweeney, and the infamous Borchard.

Plus, Montreal won't take veterans for Livan, unless they're high impact players. I could see them taking Maggs because it's great P.R. for when they move to D.C.(speculation). Lee doesn't have that star quality.

beckett21
05-31-2004, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by The Critic
I think it's a bit too much to trade for LIVAN Hernandez, but I've never seen LEVON Hernandez, so I can't say if that trade makes sense or not.... :D:

I think Elton John wrote a song about him....he would sure be a good man! :D:

RedPinStripes
05-31-2004, 12:57 PM
Carlos Lee dont have as much trade value as some people think. He's had "potential for the last 4 years. He's very DUMB. And i'd like to see Reed up here.

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 12:59 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
However, realistically Reed projects as a Kotsay type player. Kotsay's a solid player. But, I'm not willing to trade guys with a much higher ceiling. i.e. Anderson, Sweeney, and the infamous Borchard. [/B]

I never really looked at Reed that way. That kind of changes my whole perspective. Maybe Kenny's thinking the same way as you. I'm sure we could probably get Livan for Reed and a pitcher maybe too.

fquaye149
05-31-2004, 01:01 PM
Originally posted by RedPinStripes
Carlos Lee dont have as much trade value as some people think. He's had "potential for the last 4 years. He's very DUMB. And i'd like to see Reed up here.

i'm not sure what you base that comment on. have you talked to GM's?


I think there's always a market for an outfielder with .300 30 100 type numbers and decent stolen base speed.


especially when compared to livan hernandez


i am pretty sure that the only thing that would prevent a team from trading a player of livan's caliber for a player of carlos' caliber straight up would be cash, in which case throwing in rauch and munoz wouldn't make carlos cost less.

TaylorStSox
05-31-2004, 01:01 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I never really looked at Reed that way. That kind of changes my whole perspective. Maybe Kenny's thinking the same way as you. I'm sure we could probably get Livan for Reed and a pitcher maybe too.

I hope he's more like Tony Gwynn. I really do. Realistically, I'm not sure if that's the case.

soltrain21
05-31-2004, 01:01 PM
We have had way too many prospects that have been busts. I say we trade any of them for whatever we need (outside of Anderson and Sweeney).

TaylorStSox
05-31-2004, 01:06 PM
Other things to remember....

Lee is only 2 years younger than Livan. Livan's battle tested and proven. Does Montreal need a Carlos Lee? As much as I like him, there are a lot of Lee type players in the league.

Honel's value is probably down. He's having arm troubles. Even with that said, we're much higher on him than alot of other baseball publications(our only real indicator of where a guy stands by people that aren't biased).

kojak
05-31-2004, 01:23 PM
Originally posted by The Critic
I think it's a bit too much to trade for LIVAN Hernandez, but I've never seen LEVON Hernandez, so I can't say if that trade makes sense or not.... :D:

Levon sells cartoon balloons in town.

From what I hear, his family business thrives... :D:

RedPinStripes
05-31-2004, 07:30 PM
No one is punding the door down for an outfielder who positions himself like a little leaguer, cant stay consistant at the plate, and is probably one of the most fundamentally stupid players in the game.

The Sox tried moving him a few times but never got it done. The money he makes for what he does is mainly what brings his value down.

Chisoxfn
05-31-2004, 07:37 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I never really looked at Reed that way. That kind of changes my whole perspective. Maybe Kenny's thinking the same way as you. I'm sure we could probably get Livan for Reed and a pitcher maybe too.
Reed may end up being like Kotsay, but either way you don't give up a prospect of his status for a guy like LIvan Hernandez. Hernandez has a bad contract and could be acquired for relatively little if a team is willing to pick up just a decent amount of his deal.

Also, Livan isn't the type of pitcher that will help this team in the playoffs, imo. I know he has a tremendous post season record, but If the Sox are going to give up a Jeremy Reed, then go all out for a stud #1.

kittle42
05-31-2004, 07:39 PM
Originally posted by RedPinStripes
No one is punding the door down for an outfielder who positions himself like a little leaguer, cant stay consistant at the plate, and is probably one of the most fundamentally stupid players in the game.

The Sox tried moving him a few times but never got it done. The money he makes for what he does is mainly what brings his value down.

Koch Master, is that you? :smile:

hillbilly
05-31-2004, 08:11 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Reed may end up being like Kotsay, but either way you don't give up a prospect of his status for a guy like LIvan Hernandez. Hernandez has a bad contract and could be acquired for relatively little if a team is willing to pick up just a decent amount of his deal.

Also, Livan isn't the type of pitcher that will help this team in the playoffs, imo. I know he has a tremendous post season record, but If the Sox are going to give up a Jeremy Reed, then go all out for a stud #1.

That is totally ridiculous saying livan won't help this team in the playoffs??? what?? are you joking?? He immediately will upgrade this pitching staff and pretty much give the sox a 3rd, dare i say, ace.

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 08:36 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Reed may end up being like Kotsay, but either way you don't give up a prospect of his status for a guy like LIvan Hernandez. Hernandez has a bad contract and could be acquired for relatively little if a team is willing to pick up just a decent amount of his deal.

Also, Livan isn't the type of pitcher that will help this team in the playoffs, imo. I know he has a tremendous post season record, but If the Sox are going to give up a Jeremy Reed, then go all out for a stud #1.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1609941

Positive article about Livan by Rob Neyer.

And why do you think he has a bad contract? He started 33 games last year and finished 8 of them. He's already finished 2 of 12 this year and almost had a third. He's going to pitch a lot of innings and get a lot of quality starts and really ease the already nonexistant strain on the bullpen. We probably would only need 5 guys in the bullpen if we had Livan, but I know we'd keep 6 or 7 anyways.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/stats?statsId=5734

I know he pitches in the NL and the difference this year between the AL and NL is a 0.40 ERA. So you can take Livan's 3.43 ERA, add .4 and get a 3.83 ERA. Who wouldnt be happy with a guy who could go 260 innings this year with a decent WHIP and a good K/9 rate? I would certainly take it. If it were only a matter of "taking on" his contract we should do it immeadiately.

And if the Expos thought it was such a bad deal, why did they sign a month and a half ago?:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1781647

Brian26
05-31-2004, 08:41 PM
Originally posted by RedPinStripes
No one is punding the door down for an outfielder who positions himself like a little leaguer, cant stay consistant at the plate, and is probably one of the most fundamentally stupid players in the game.

What's scary is that I didn't know if you were talking about Caballo or Rowand the first time I read this. I guess the last point cleared it up for me.

RedPinStripes
05-31-2004, 10:02 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
What's scary is that I didn't know if you were talking about Caballo or Rowand the first time I read this. I guess the last point cleared it up for me.

Lee is dumber then Rowand, but Rowand still sucks. :smile:

RedPinStripes
05-31-2004, 10:04 PM
Originally posted by kittle42
Koch Master, is that you? :smile:

I would take that as an insult, but i havent read enough of his posts. :smile:

kittle42
05-31-2004, 11:27 PM
Originally posted by RedPinStripes
I would take that as an insult, but i havent read enough of his posts. :smile:

You aren't missing anything....except opportunities to rip on someone.

DickAllen72
06-01-2004, 03:33 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
We can definitely get Livan for less.



How about Perez, Borchard, Wunsch and Rauch for Livan and Carl Everett?

hold2dibber
06-01-2004, 04:00 PM
I seriously doubt that Hernandez is available. The Expos lost Vazquez and Colon over the last 2 years. They view Hernandez as the cornerstone of their rotation - that's why they just signed him to an extension this season. They recently re-signed Vidro and are trying to re-sign Cabrera. Those are the guys they're trying to hold onto and build around in anticipation of a move out of Montreal. Hernandez is not going anywhere, so you might as well forget about the whole thing.

RedPinStripes
06-01-2004, 04:09 PM
Originally posted by DickAllen72
How about Perez, Borchard, Wunsch and Rauch for Livan and Carl Everett?

Only if Lee's dumb ass is outa here. I dont want to see Everet in CF again. He's a LF all the way.

DickAllen72
06-01-2004, 06:26 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber [/B]

Then how about Armas Jr.?

OEO Magglio
06-01-2004, 06:28 PM
Originally posted by RedPinStripes
Only if Lee's dumb ass is outa here. I dont want to see Everet in CF again. He's a LF all the way.
Well said. I'd love to get Carl back and I wouldn't mind seeing Lee shipped somewhere else. But there is no way Carl is a cf but he'd be great to have back if he was going to play left.

jeremyb1
06-01-2004, 06:34 PM
I agree with most in this thread that Hernandez is a pretty outstanding pitcher. However, I can't understand why anyone thinks he could be on the block. The Expos are trying to cement themselves as a viable franchise right now to increase their attractiveness for potential buyers so they can get out of Montreal. This is the reason they resigned Vidro and picked up Livan's option (which wasn't unreasonable but was far from a slam dunk). I think the chances Hernandez will become available are more or less nil.

jeremyb1
06-01-2004, 06:51 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
We can definitely get Livan for less.

Regarding trading prospects: I have to be honest. I'm more willing to deal Reed than the other big 3 outfield prospects. The reason is based on tools and ceiling. I've followed Reed since we drafted him, so I'm not biased. However, realistically Reed projects as a Kotsay type player. Kotsay's a solid player. But, I'm not willing to trade guys with a much higher ceiling. i.e. Anderson, Sweeney, and the infamous Borchard.

Originally posted by MRKARNO
I never really looked at Reed that way. That kind of changes my whole perspective. Maybe Kenny's thinking the same way as you. I'm sure we could probably get Livan for Reed and a pitcher maybe too.

Jeremy Reed only resembles Kotsay if you listen to Jim Callis who I respect but find to be way off base on this issue. First of all, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA cards list Reed's top 20 most similar players ovre the last 40 or so years and Kotsay doesn't make the list. Kotsay didn't ressemble Reed all that much in the minors. He was slightly younger and hit for more power (20 hrs in AA), less average (.306 BA), struck out more often, and didn't steal quite as many bases. Both players are of a similar size, bat lefthanded, and play the same position, and have shown strong place discipline but the comparisons stop there. Perhaps most importantly, Kotsay only had 600 minor league plate appearances and never played above AA so there's not all that much to base a comparison on. I fully expect Reed to best Kotsay's .338 career OBP.

Finally, I think Baseball America's notion that a player's polish and upside are completely unrelated is quite stupid. Players tend to have a pretty consistent development curve so if a guy is playing well at high levels at a young age he's likely going to improve indicating he has quite a bit of upside as is the case with Reed. Borchard is 25 and has never had a season as good as Reed did last year so it seems odd to suggest he has "higher upside". Regardless, I'd take the guy with a 90% chance of being a good player over the guy with a 5% chance of being a superstar anyday.

batmanZoSo
06-01-2004, 06:53 PM
Originally posted by The Critic
I think it's a bit too much to trade for LIVAN Hernandez, but I've never seen LEVON Hernandez, so I can't say if that trade makes sense or not.... :D:

Maybe we can trade Rauch for Levon Kirkland :?: