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View Full Version : Two months in, where do you see the Sox on October 3rd?


MRKARNO
05-30-2004, 09:28 PM
OK now that we've actually seen 2 months of baseball I think it's safe to make projections about the rest of the sesaon on. At the beginning of the year, I projected 91 wins, which at the time was optimistic. A lot of other people projected fewer amounts of wins than that. I want to see where people think the Sox are going to be on October 3rd, 2004 in terms of Wins.

I see this team being a very excellent team. We'll get a 5th starter and then we'll just start to pile on the wins, winning a total of 98 wins. I think we're that good. We could hit triple digits if we hit as well for the new starter as for the other 4.

kittle42
05-30-2004, 09:33 PM
I see them getting ready to play golf.

Koch Master
05-30-2004, 09:35 PM
If we get a 5th starter, an everyday center fielder, and another arm in the pen.........then I say 92-96 wins. If not, 84-87 wins.

CubKilla
05-30-2004, 09:38 PM
Originally posted by Koch Master
If we get a 5th starter, an everyday center fielder, and another arm in the pen.........then I say 92-96 wins. If not, 84-87 wins.

Bingo! Some moves need to be made..... primarily a 5th starter and a closer..... before I'm ready to commit to thinking anything postseason.

voodoochile
05-30-2004, 09:39 PM
The Sox are clearly good enough to win the division, but it may not take 92-96 wins to do so.

Still, that is how I voted, because I think they are going to have a real fun summer.

HomeFish
05-30-2004, 09:40 PM
87-91 sounds about right. Certainly up from my earlier prediction of 79 wins, but I don't think it is sufficent to beat Minnesota.

The Twins just aren't human. They will recover beyond our worst nightmares. Always have, always will. I won't believe otherwise until I see it, and hopefully I will.

nasox
05-30-2004, 09:54 PM
Originally posted by Koch Master
If we get a 5th starter, an everyday center fielder, and another arm in the pen.........then I say 92-96 wins. If not, 84-87 wins.


Originally posted by CubKilla


Bingo! Some moves need to be made..... primarily a 5th starter and a closer..... before I'm ready to commit to thinking anything postseason.

Geez, we don't need all of those things. A fifth starter, yes, another arm in the pen, no, and an everday center fielder, yes, we could use one but we don't need it that badly and are really not going to get one. Geez, even when we're playing amazingly soxfans think we need a better team. Any team could use improvements but it's not going to happenWe are a fifth starter short of being WS caliber (not to say we are not already).

I predict 94 wins just to stay on the safe side (don't want to junx the team, although by just saying that I may have jinxed the team, and I probably just made it worse by saying what I just said, I really gotta stop the jinxings. Ohhhhh (E-O), crap, IT'S HOT TODAY!)-Parody of the Simpsons episode where Krusty is discovered to be a huge tax fraud.

MRKARNO
05-30-2004, 09:58 PM
Originally posted by HomeFish
87-91 sounds about right. Certainly up from my earlier prediction of 79 wins, but I don't think it is sufficent to beat Minnesota.

The Twins just aren't human. They will recover beyond our worst nightmares. Always have, always will. I won't believe otherwise until I see it, and hopefully I will.

Not if they are getting outscored by their opponents they wont

OEO Magglio
05-30-2004, 10:07 PM
Originally posted by CubKilla
Bingo! Some moves need to be made..... primarily a 5th starter and a closer..... before I'm ready to commit to thinking anything postseason.
The sox have a closer.. his name's Billy Koch. I do agree however that they need to pickup another starter. Depending on who KW acquires and he will acquire someone I think this team has a chance to win atleast 95 games.

ChiSox7
05-30-2004, 10:08 PM
Originally posted by CubKilla
Bingo! Some moves need to be made..... primarily a 5th starter and a closer..... before I'm ready to commit to thinking anything postseason.

Which Billy Koch have you been watching. One of the best K/9 rates in the majors this year. Only one blown save. He's been great. Unhittable if he's not walking people. We do NOT need a closer. He's healthy and good.

mmmmmbeeer
05-30-2004, 10:23 PM
I picked 97-100 for a couple of reasons.

We're done with a Yankees team that is just now starting to roll. We only have 6 against Boston, who should be healthy by the time we play them, but we will be done with our midseason acquisitions by that time, which takes me to reason #2.

Rumor has it that JR is willing to open up the purse strings to release a "large" amount of loot for KW to use by the deadline. "Large" to me could be in the neighborhood of $8-10M, which means that we should be able to get a #1or#2 quality pitcher and a very solid reliever or CF. The current makeup of this team with those additions spell serious championship contender.

We've still got many of our divisional games left. With the talent we possess there is no excuse for anything but domination against KC, DET, and CLE. I think we can handle Minny.

With the exception of Boston we are DONE with the AL East, a very strong division. We've got a ton of games left against the west but I think we've shown that we matchup well against TEX and ANA, may struggle against the offenseless A's, and should dominate SEA this season, they stink.

Biggest reason I think we can 97-100 games is that Jerry Manuel is nowhere near this team. Ozzie will lead this team to the promised land. I'm sure I'll be labeled a kool-aid drinker, but I really think we've got something special already and some sort of committment from ownership to fill the few remaining weaknesses by the deadline.

Whitesox029
05-30-2004, 10:24 PM
Originally posted by HomeFish
87-91 sounds about right. Certainly up from my earlier prediction of 79 wins, but I don't think it is sufficent to beat Minnesota.

The Twins just aren't human. They will recover beyond our worst nightmares. Always have, always will. I won't believe otherwise until I see it, and hopefully I will.
And that thought it always in the back of my mind. It's all well and good that we're in 1st right now, but the season doesn't end today. Minny has the chance to come back in sickening fashion as they always have (we're going back to the baggiedome twice more) and I won't be completely satisfied until we've clinched.

doublem23
05-30-2004, 10:27 PM
The Sox team we have now (barring injuries) can win 95+ games, primarily because we get to feast on this division.

MRKARNO
05-30-2004, 10:28 PM
Originally posted by ChiSox7
Which Billy Koch have you been watching. One of the best K/9 rates in the majors this year. Only one blown save. He's been great. Unhittable if he's not walking people. We do NOT need a closer. He's healthy and good.

And lately we've had no need for a closer. It's been 12 games since the last save opp for Koch. Koch has been and will be fine. I think all of these outings in non-save situations might help his confidence when we do need him to save the game for us.

batmanZoSo
05-30-2004, 10:38 PM
I'm gonna say 94-68, just assuming we'll get another starter. That figure would probably be the median of us getting a fifth starter and getting an ace.

A. Cavatica
05-30-2004, 10:40 PM
I'm upping my preseason prediction (77 wins) to 87-91. Happy to be wrong on this one!

The Sox have passed several important tests so far.

- The "showing some fire" test. The record in one-run games, the wins in the last at-bat, the resilience after a bad loss: these are what was missing under Jerry Manuel. This is why Ozzie was hired, and I clearly underestimated the positive effect he was going to have. (Through April I thought it could be an Anyone-But-Manuel effect, but now that we're two months in I have to give Ozzie his props.)

- The "fast start" test. I said earlier my benchmark was 24-16, and they only went 23-17, but they've since improved to 29-20. Call the season opener a fluke and give them the benefit of the doubt. (It's worth it to have KC practically eliminated already.) Right now, we're two games up, and we just took a series from the current #1 in ESPN's Power Rankings.

- The Minnesota test. That series in the Dome was sweet.

- The "filling the holes" test. I predicted 77 wins because KW did next to nothing in the offseason. In fact, Uribe's been the MVP of the first two months, Schoeneweis and Shingo have been terrific, Gload & Perez & Jackson have been useful, and several incumbents (Olivo, Harris, Konerko, Garland) are producing the way they're expected to.

As Ozzie said recently, we haven't won anything yet. There are just as many tests to come. Here's what I'll be watching for over the next two months.

- The West Coast Trip test. This particular monkey isn't off the team's back until we (at least) split the games in Anaheim, Oakland, and Seattle.

- The Minnesota test, Part II. (I am not worried about NY or Boston. Minnesota never quits. We need to keep pounding them.)

- The Flash In The Pan test. Do you really believe Olivo, Konerko, Harris, Uribe, Schoeneweis, and half the bullpen will continue to outclass their career numbers for another two months? I sure don't. Three or four guys are due to come back to Earth in a hurry. That could be OK if Crede, Rowand, Lee, Valentin, Koch & Politte pick it up.

- The Reinforcements test. The Twins (and last year, the Royals) always seem to be able to call up someone from the minor leagues who contributes right away. So far, we haven't had that (except for a couple at-bats from Dransfeldt). The fifth starter situation is hemorrhaging, the bullpen needs another dependable arm, and there's lots of room for improvement at 3B, LF, & CF. I'd like to see us call up a rookie successfully for a change. If the rookies just aren't good enough (which I don't believe) then KW needs to start dealing.

- The Bringing Up Ozzie test. The flip side to having Ozzie as your field manager is that every so often he turns in a real stinker. He needs to pay more attention to platoon differentials, especially in extreme cases (I'm talking to you, Jose.) He needs to tone down the over-aggressive baserunning and the first-inning bunts. He needs to bench players whose heads aren't in the game (Hello, Carlos). Quite simply, we can't afford a manager who makes the mistakes Ozzie did as a player -- and so far Ozzie is still making those same mistakes.

Anyway, for now I'm (cautiously) on the bandwagon.

ChiSox7
05-30-2004, 10:45 PM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
I'm upping my preseason prediction (77 wins) to 87-91. Happy to be wrong on this one!

The Sox have passed several important tests so far.

- The "showing some fire" test. The record in one-run games, the wins in the last at-bat, the resilience after a bad loss: these are what was missing under Jerry Manuel. This is why Ozzie was hired, and I clearly underestimated the positive effect he was going to have. (Through April I thought it could be an Anyone-But-Manuel effect, but now that we're two months in I have to give Ozzie his props.)

- The "fast start" test. I said earlier my benchmark was 24-16, and they only went 23-17, but they've since improved to 29-20. Call the season opener a fluke and give them the benefit of the doubt. (It's worth it to have KC practically eliminated already.) Right now, we're two games up, and we just took a series from the current #1 in ESPN's Power Rankings.

- The Minnesota test. That series in the Dome was sweet.

- The "filling the holes" test. I predicted 77 wins because KW did next to nothing in the offseason. In fact, Uribe's been the MVP of the first two months, Schoeneweis and Shingo have been terrific, Gload & Perez & Jackson have been useful, and several incumbents (Olivo, Harris, Konerko, Garland) are producing the way they're expected to.

As Ozzie said recently, we haven't won anything yet. There are just as many tests to come. Here's what I'll be watching for over the next two months.

- The West Coast Trip test. This particular monkey isn't off the team's back until we (at least) split the games in Anaheim, Oakland, and Seattle.

- The Minnesota test, Part II. (I am not worried about NY or Boston. Minnesota never quits. We need to keep pounding them.)

- The Flash In The Pan test. Do you really believe Olivo, Konerko, Harris, Uribe, Schoeneweis, and half the bullpen will continue to outclass their career numbers for another two months? I sure don't. Three or four guys are due to come back to Earth in a hurry. That could be OK if Crede, Rowand, Lee, Valentin, Koch & Politte pick it up.

- The Reinforcements test. The Twins (and last year, the Royals) always seem to be able to call up someone from the minor leagues who contributes right away. So far, we haven't had that (except for a couple at-bats from Dransfeldt). The fifth starter situation is hemorrhaging, the bullpen needs another dependable arm, and there's lots of room for improvement at 3B, LF, & CF. I'd like to see us call up a rookie successfully for a change. If the rookies just aren't good enough (which I don't believe) then KW needs to start dealing.

- The Bringing Up Ozzie test. The flip side to having Ozzie as your field manager is that every so often he turns in a real stinker. He needs to pay more attention to platoon differentials, especially in extreme cases (I'm talking to you, Jose.) He needs to tone down the over-aggressive baserunning and the first-inning bunts. He needs to bench players whose heads aren't in the game (Hello, Carlos). Quite simply, we can't afford a manager who makes the mistakes Ozzie did as a player -- and so far Ozzie is still making those same mistakes.

Anyway, for now I'm (cautiously) on the bandwagon.

I don't think Willie, Uribe, or Olivo will "come back to earth." They are young and I think they are just that good. Especially Willie. He's really figured it out. Konerko isn't even putting up "career" numbers, so I don't know what you mean there, but I do believe Schony might come back to the pack JUST a little. But he's around a 4.00 ERA guy with that cutter and change. I don't think any of those guys are a flash in the pan. Bullpen either. Especially Shingo.

MRKARNO
05-30-2004, 10:50 PM
Originally posted by ChiSox7
I don't think Willie, Uribe, or Olivo will "come back to earth." They are young and I think they are just that good. Especially Willie. He's really figured it out. Konerko isn't even putting up "career" numbers, so I don't know what you mean there, but I do believe Schony might come back to the pack JUST a little. But he's around a 4.00 ERA guy with that cutter and change. I don't think any of those guys are a flash in the pan. Bullpen either. Especially Shingo.

If anyone comes back to Earth it's Crede. You really think he's going to hit near the Mendoza line this year? Even if he comes back to .250-.260 it will be a huge boost for the team because he'll have to hit .280-.290 to do that from here.

A. Cavatica
05-30-2004, 10:58 PM
Originally posted by ChiSox7
Konerko isn't even putting up "career" numbers, so I don't know what you mean there

Sure he is. His career numbers aren't all that good.

But I hope you're right and that everyone keeps it up. All we need is for the hot players to stay hot and the cold ones to heat up.

MRKARNO
05-30-2004, 11:44 PM
Pythag W-L Evaluation:

As it is now our Pythagorean W-L projects to an 102-60 record.
Our actual W-L projects to 96-66

On days when the 5th starter pitches we are 1-7....

Which means on days that the 5th starter doesnt pitch we go 28-13. 28-13 projects to 111-51
On days when the 5th starter pitches we have 21 Runs scored and 48 Runs against which projects to one win over 8 games.

Our Pythag W-L projection using RS/RA when the 5th starter does not pitch (253 RS/163 RA) projects to 114-48

Just to put things in perspective.....

gosox3072
05-31-2004, 12:24 AM
Im changing my preseason prediction of 87 wins and 3rd place to 97 wins and first place. We are playing 1000% better than i thought we would....and we havent even hit june when we usually begin to warm up. This prediction is pending a good trade or two. I think if these trades can happen 97 wins can very well happen.

Without any trades id say this team could win 92 and win the central, but i dont believe we would get to the series. I dont know who, but we need some sort of speedy guy that has a high OBP, who can hit in cold weather. My biggest fear is that we win 100 games and then the cold october weather shuts our offense down.

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 12:27 AM
Originally posted by gosox3072
My biggest fear is that we win 100 games and then the cold october weather shuts our offense down.

The temps in April and May werent ideal this year and we still managed to hit

doublem23
05-31-2004, 12:28 AM
Originally posted by gosox3072
My biggest fear is that we win 100 games and then the cold october weather shuts our offense down.

My biggest fear is the team bottoms out during the regular season. No need to put the horse before the cart.

gosox3072
05-31-2004, 12:41 AM
This is true that we havent had the best weather so far and weve been playing well dispite it but i still believe that we wont play as well in the COLD october as we are now.

Also my i have a bigger fear that we make the playoffs as the best team and we choke, rather than not making the playoffs. For example, if last years cubs happened to us, i dont know what i would do. :D: prolly dig a hold and bury myself

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 12:50 AM
Originally posted by gosox3072
For example, if last years cubs happened to us, i dont know what i would do. :D: prolly dig a hold and bury myself

Last years' Cubs had the worst record of the 8 teams in the postseason.

nasox
05-31-2004, 12:50 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
And lately we've had no need for a closer. It's been 12 games since the last save opp for Koch. Koch has been and will be fine. I think all of these outings in non-save situations might help his confidence when we do need him to save the game for us.

So that's why my blood pressure went down. And I thought it was because of my increased salty and deep fried foods I'd been dieting on! :)

Railsplitter
05-31-2004, 07:27 AM
I think the Sox' win total will be somewhere in the high 90's.

remember the club record of 100 wins was established in 154 games. In terms of winning percentage, 105 would be the best ever for the Sox.

BigEdWalsh
05-31-2004, 07:46 AM
Originally posted by voodoochile
The Sox are clearly good enough to win the division, but it may not take 92-96 wins to do so.

Still, that is how I voted, because I think they are going to have a real fun summer.

Ditto!
:)

Frankfan4life
05-31-2004, 12:37 PM
Only me and a couple of other folks picked 101+. Okay, so that's really optimistic but I have a lot of faith in this team. How they handled good-hitting teams like the Angels and Rangers has boosted my confidence in this team.

I'll be happy with whatever number of wins it takes for the Sox to win the AL Central but I'd like to think the Sox are capable of doing more than just winning the division and just squeaking by in the Central may not be good enough to accomplish that.

The Critic
05-31-2004, 12:44 PM
I voted 87-91, but only because the 92-96 vote said "clearly" good enough to win the division.
I'm optimistic that they'll win the division, but I think it's silly to write off Minnesota at all. They're just too good and too dangerous to take lightly.
I think the #5 starter situation will dictate how the Sox fare. If the Sox can get a good starter in time, the division is right there for the taking. If not, "settle for second again".
I still believe that Koch is coming around and will take solid grasp of the closer role. That curve he brought out last time out was nasty, and that pitch will add MPH to his heater, regardless of whether it's at 94 or 97. He also seems to have that cocky Bill Goldberg stare that he gets when he's feeling confident.

MRKARNO
05-31-2004, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by The Critic
I voted 87-91, but only because the 92-96 vote said "clearly" good enough to win the division.
I'm optimistic that they'll win the division, but I think it's silly to write off Minnesota at all. They're just too good and too dangerous to take lightly.


At this point in the year, the Twins are getting outscored by their opponents 237 to 250. Sorry I just dont see this team as being very good unless their prospects can come in and turn the team drastically around. They arent going anywhere with this pitching staff at this point. Their hitting just isnt that good. We're head and shoulders above them unless we totally collapse against them head to head. I sincerely doubt that the Twins can win more than 91 games.

fquaye149
05-31-2004, 01:12 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
At this point in the year, the Twins are getting outscored by their opponents 237 to 250. Sorry I just dont see this team as being very good unless their prospects can come in and turn the team drastically around. They arent going anywhere with this pitching staff at this point. Their hitting just isnt that good. We're head and shoulders above them unless we totally collapse against them head to head. I sincerely doubt that the Twins can win more than 91 games.

i agree.

I think the twins of this year, while still a scary prospect are only a shadow of the team's past

i think the sox, meanwhile have improved immensely and will only continue to improve as kenny deals.

There's absolutely no reason to believe that kenny can't find a pitcher in the 5th spot who will win 40% of his games from now on (whetherthat means acquiring a 5th starter type pitcher like benson, acquiring a middle rotation like livan hernandez or top rotation like johnson and moving garland to the 5th, or bringing up a prospect or cotts who can get the job done)

with that i think it is clear that with the improvements of our club and deterioration of the twins club we will make up at least the 4 games we trailed them last year.

it isn't often we are in first at memorial day and that is probably the difference.


having said all that, there is always the chance i will have to eat my words, esp. if somehow (i don't know how this could possibly happen) kenny can't find someone in the 5th starter spot.

Deadguy
05-31-2004, 01:17 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
At this point in the year, the Twins are getting outscored by their opponents 237 to 250. Sorry I just dont see this team as being very good unless their prospects can come in and turn the team drastically around. They arent going anywhere with this pitching staff at this point. Their hitting just isnt that good. We're head and shoulders above them unless we totally collapse against them head to head. I sincerely doubt that the Twins can win more than 91 games.

I agree 100%. Only two teams have ever made the playoffs while giving up more runs than they scored over the course of the season (The 1987 Twins and the 1973 Mets).

Baseball isn't that complicated. You just have to score more runs than your opponents to win, and the Sox run differential indicates that they are the team with the tools to end up on top at the end of the season.

Deadguy
05-31-2004, 01:21 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
My biggest fear is the team bottoms out during the regular season. No need to put the horse before the cart.

Heh. How true.

Ussually its not the cool October temperatures that shut down offenses, its the opposing team's pitching staffs. Most playoff teams have a strong starting 3, which is why many players have sub par performances in the playoffs.